Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener Rangers (OHL)
5-11, 175
Born: March 31, 1993 in Aurora, Ontario
Shoots: Right
Scouting report:
Strengths: The most skilled prospect at the defense position in the entire 2011 draft. Amazing speed, elusiveness and balance- a 5+ skater on the 1-5 scale; explosive acceleration, dynamic top speed with extra separation gear. A master of his edges; can cut and turn on a dime and shake would-be forecheckers with ease. When he revs it up through the neutral zone, few can slow him down. Outstanding four-way directional movement with both blazing mobility and slippery agility with and without the puck. Excellent puckhandler who can make all his moves at full gallop. Keeps his head up and sees the ice beautifully. Super passer who can make every breakout with ease, either with the short-to-intermediate crisp tape-to-tape feed or the long, accurate stretch pass to spring the breakaway. High-end distributor on offense; able to exploit seams in defenses at will and unselfish with the puck. As pure gunslinger from the backline as you will find: possesses a true bomb from the point that is hard, heavy and accurate. Gets it off quickly and has the instinctive feel for when to shoot and when to move it to a better scoring position. Uses his excellent lateral agility to open up shooting lanes for himself, making him a dual shooting/passing threat every time the puck is in the offensive zone. Highly creative; thinks and reacts so much faster than 95% of his opponents at this level. Made one play that astounded scouts in attendance for Game 5 of opening series vs. Plymouth where he purposefully shot the puck off the backend to teammate Jerry D'Amigo, who buried it for a lead late in the game. Defensive improvement shows he has the work ethic and desire to be a player. Has mastered the art of the hip check; uses his superior smarts and mobility to lay out opponents much bigger and stronger than he. Quick, active stick to deny players who try to take the puck into traffic. Solid positionally; doesn't hurt his team with many mistakes or bad decisions. Hockey sense is simply off the charts in terms of his vision, judgment of when to activate, and the ability to read the play and make the right decisions both offensively and defensively. A leader and very high character player who came into the OHL with a lot of fanfare and has thus far has not only delivered, but raised the bar.
Weaknesses: With Murphy it's all about the size and strength issues. As skilled a player as he is, he'll have to account for bigger, faster, stronger forwards in the NHL and pros who will drive straight to the net and be difficult to contain on the cycle. Last season, his defense was a major question mark, more owing to the fact that he never really had to worry much about playing in his own end at the lower levels. However, he addressed his shortcoming to the satisfaction of most who watched him this season. No major flaws to his game- a major league talent who simply has to keep proving himself as he has already done.
Multimedia:
Ryan Murphy HNIC Don Cherry video (Thanks Dominic Tiano for posting on YT)
Interview with Ryan Murphy at the NHL Scouting Combine (B2011DW video)
Style compares to: Paul Coffey, Phil Housley
Draft prediction:Murphy came into the season with a bum rap about his lack of size and inability to play defense, but the 79-point scorer for Kitchener answered a lot of questions. He's better positionally, though he'll still face challenges when dealing with the pure strength and power of hockey's bigger, skilled forwards. Even with those concerns, however, Murphy established himself as a clear-cut top-10 pick this season. His talent level and commitment are so high and he'll not be long in waiting at the XCel Energy Center on the 24th. He's a perfect fit for Boston, but rumors abound that at least one team picking ahead of the Bruins at 9 are hot for Murphy. We'll see how it all plays out in about 10 days. He's probably several years from being ready for NHL action, but the idea of Murphy and Zdeno Chara together at some point has to bring a lot of appeal.
Projection: Top pairing potential and ace power play specialist. Murphy still has some scouts questioning whether he can be a regular rotation defender, but others are sold. At the very least, he'd be a third-pairing guy and special teamer. Guys with Murphy's skill level and character don't always come around, and given Boston's dearth of projectable high-end talent at the defense position, we wouldn't be at all surprised if the B's braintrust coveted him.
Background:A standout for the York-Simcoe Express as a minor midget, where he was coached by fellow 2011 draft prospect Daniel Catenacci's father, Maurice. Brampton winger Barclay Goodrow was also on that Express team with Murphy and Catenacci. Drafted third overall in the 2009 OHL Priority Selection by Kitchener. Had 6 goals, 39 points in 62 OHL games as a rookie; doubled his production in second OHL campaign: has a steep developmental curve (26-53-79). Finished second only to Windsor Spitfires veteran (and Nashville first-round pick in 2009) Ryan Ellis in scoring for defensemen in the OHL (Ellis had 24 goals, 100 points). Was not selected for the 2010 Team Canada Under-18 squad that captured gold at the Ivan Hlinka Memorial Tournament in August despite scoring a hat trick (4 total points) in the final scrimmage at evaluation camp in Calgary. Set Team Canada scoring record at World Under-18 tournament for points with 13 in seven games. Formed part of a legitimate leadership core- wearing the 'A' alongside team captain Gabriel Landeskog. Favorite NHL team: Chicago Blackhawks Favorite NHL player: Mike Green
If Murphy had his own soundtrack it would be: "Anthem of the Underdog"- 12 Stones
Quotable:
"There are two schools of thought on Murphy; he's not that strong in his own end. I mean, he's easily knocked off the puck and he'll take the puck and go with it all the time, so he needs to get better at refining his defensive techniques and paying a little more attention to what he needs to do in his own end. But, he's so dynamic. You look at a kid like Ryan Ellis; Murphy is so much of a better skater than Ellis will ever hope to be. And he's a lot more intelligent with the puck on his stick than Ellis and that's saying something, because Ellis is one of the most intelligent quarterbacks back there on the blue line that I have seen come along in the last 10 or 12 years. So, Murphy has all the things that Ellis does and much, much better skating ability with dynamic speed and acceleration. So, those are the things you accentuate. He's certainly going to be a power play quarterback who can quarterback a top power play in the NHL. The question is whether he-- he certainly has room to improve in his own end-- the question is will he take the coaching and will he get better at that? That's going to be the difference as to whether he's more of a specialist or a guy who puts up 20 minutes a night."- Kyle Woodlief, Chief Scout and Publisher, Red Line Report; December 2010
"I think he's a much more dynamic player than Ellis is. If you don't stop this kid at (his) own blue line, you're ****ed."- NHL scout to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; August 2010
"He's such a smart player with the way he activates. He sees the ice so well and has that instinctive feel for finding the openings and moving the puck to his teammates for quality scoring chances. He's confident and aggressive with the way he handles the puck, and really, when he's on the ice, it's like having four forwards out there at all times."- Kitchener head coach Steve Spott to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; January 2011
"He's improved significantly. What you have to understand about Ryan is that he's such a hard worker and is driven to be a better player in all aspects of the game. The first question I get from NHL scouts is, 'Can he defend?' and my answer is: 'Yes, he can!' His hockey IQ is so high, and while he's still working on his strength to win those 1-on-1 puck battles he's smart enough to win a lot of those and he's so competitive that he's able to be effective in his own zone."- Kitchener head coach Steve Spott to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; January 2011
"What Ryan is going to have to overcome is risk. He'll have to deal with it his entire career, and NHL teams will have to decide how much risk they are willing to take with him. I think you saw that question answered a few years ago with a player that can do similar things in Ryan Ellis (Nashville Predators). After watching him in this league and in tournaments like the World Juniors, I don't know that there is any question that he'll wear the (Nashville) sweater. I could see how there would be questions surrounding Ryan Murphy, but when it comes to risk, he's well worth it in my opinion."- Kitchener head coach Steve Spott to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; January 2011
"Murphy has looked great so far (in the 2011 playoffs). He looks like a top-10 pick...top-five, actually, with the way he's played."- NHL scout to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; April 2011
"Ryan's work on the power play is outstanding, He sees the ice very well and is creative, [has] excellent passing ability and a great shot that he gets through to the net. (He's) also an excellent all-round skater. He's got real good mobility. He's a bit of a gambler. He does move the puck well, but he's going to have to concentrate on making good plays."- Central Scouting's Chris Edwards to NHL.com; May, 2011
Murphy in his own words:
"Obviously, I'm an offensive defenseman and I have the skating and skills to be a factor offensively. I like to join the rush and I can help on the power play. But beyond that, I'm an improved player defensively from where I was. I think I've learned how to play the position more effectively; how to use my feet and my head to make the right plays and be in position to prevent other team's from scoring goals. I'm still learning, but I know that I can be counted on to be an effective player at both ends of the ice, and that's what I would tell any NHL team."- Ryan Murphy to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; January, 2011
"I don't think you can ever be satisfied with where you are as an individual player. Losing to Windsor in last season's playoffs taught me a lot about how far I have to go in my own development."- Ryan Murphy to Bruins 2011 Draft Watch; January, 2011
The Scoop
True Hockey feature on Ryan Murphy by Greg Thomson
Adam Kimmelman: Murphy wants to be known as all-around defenseman (NHL.com)
Murphy does some looking at the Reebok Store
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Daniel Catenacci. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daniel Catenacci. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
The curious case of Barclay Goodrow
Scouting hockey prospects can be a fickle business. Especially when it comes to projecting players in their teens as adults in contention for a very limited amount of NHL jobs.
Brampton Battalion forward Barclay Goodrow is a case study in the kind of prospect who reaches a physical maturity faster than his peers in the early teens and tends to dominate competition early. However, if the line of progression does not continue and noticeable improvements made in known shortcomings, then the red flags come out.
Such is the situation with Goodrow.
The 18-year-old left winger stands at about 6-2 and 210 pounds, but he towered among his minor midget competition when he was skating with the York Simcoe Express on what was a veritable "Who's Who" among 2011 draft prospects- a team coached by Maurice Catenacci, father of 2009 OHL 1st overall pick by the Soo Greyhounds Daniel Catenacci. 4th overall pick Ryan Murphy of the Kitchener Rangers was also on that team. Goodrow's 67 goals helped to make him the 17th overall pick that year by Brampton despite major skating issues.
Two years later, Goodrow is still a labored skater, with a lack of initial burst, foot speed and agility. We asked one NHL scout about Goodrow at the halfway point this season and his response was swift: "The skating's going to hold him back," was all he said.
On the flip side, Goodrow scored 24 goals- he can fire the puck and when he bulls his way to the net, he's tough to contain because of his big frame and strength. One problem with him is that he doesn't do it often enough, and he also struggles to maintain his consistency from shift to shift.
Every year, draft classes have a Goodrow in them- a kid who was highly regarded going into major junior but who was unable to continue upward on the development curve, while the kids behind him in minor midget or lower levels caught up and then passed them. Given his excellent production on that Express juggernaut along with his excellent pro hockey size, this was a player NHL scouts had high hopes for. And given his quick hands and good hockey sense, there is some hope for Goodrow, even if the hopes and dreams of being a high NHL draft pick are essentially a pipe dream at this point.
"There's some unrefined potential with this kid," said a Western Conference scout who works Ontario for his club. "His dad played university football, so there are some bloodlines, and he's a pretty solid two-way guy. The skating's rough, but he's someone who you take later and that maybe with some good coaching he can become and effective grinder for you."
When it comes to those big-name Express alumni, Goodrow has been the forgotten man between Murphy and Catenacci, but his natural size means that he still has a shot to be an NHL player one day. He's going to have to do it the hard way and without fanfare, but where once his star was rising along with others in the region, the development has stagnated. To a degree, his case underscores how tough it is to pinpoint future NHL skaters at such a young age.
Brampton Battalion forward Barclay Goodrow is a case study in the kind of prospect who reaches a physical maturity faster than his peers in the early teens and tends to dominate competition early. However, if the line of progression does not continue and noticeable improvements made in known shortcomings, then the red flags come out.
Such is the situation with Goodrow.
The 18-year-old left winger stands at about 6-2 and 210 pounds, but he towered among his minor midget competition when he was skating with the York Simcoe Express on what was a veritable "Who's Who" among 2011 draft prospects- a team coached by Maurice Catenacci, father of 2009 OHL 1st overall pick by the Soo Greyhounds Daniel Catenacci. 4th overall pick Ryan Murphy of the Kitchener Rangers was also on that team. Goodrow's 67 goals helped to make him the 17th overall pick that year by Brampton despite major skating issues.
Two years later, Goodrow is still a labored skater, with a lack of initial burst, foot speed and agility. We asked one NHL scout about Goodrow at the halfway point this season and his response was swift: "The skating's going to hold him back," was all he said.
On the flip side, Goodrow scored 24 goals- he can fire the puck and when he bulls his way to the net, he's tough to contain because of his big frame and strength. One problem with him is that he doesn't do it often enough, and he also struggles to maintain his consistency from shift to shift.
Every year, draft classes have a Goodrow in them- a kid who was highly regarded going into major junior but who was unable to continue upward on the development curve, while the kids behind him in minor midget or lower levels caught up and then passed them. Given his excellent production on that Express juggernaut along with his excellent pro hockey size, this was a player NHL scouts had high hopes for. And given his quick hands and good hockey sense, there is some hope for Goodrow, even if the hopes and dreams of being a high NHL draft pick are essentially a pipe dream at this point.
"There's some unrefined potential with this kid," said a Western Conference scout who works Ontario for his club. "His dad played university football, so there are some bloodlines, and he's a pretty solid two-way guy. The skating's rough, but he's someone who you take later and that maybe with some good coaching he can become and effective grinder for you."
When it comes to those big-name Express alumni, Goodrow has been the forgotten man between Murphy and Catenacci, but his natural size means that he still has a shot to be an NHL player one day. He's going to have to do it the hard way and without fanfare, but where once his star was rising along with others in the region, the development has stagnated. To a degree, his case underscores how tough it is to pinpoint future NHL skaters at such a young age.
Friday, May 20, 2011
50 in 30: B2011DW's top-50 players for the NHL Draft
With this post, Bruins 2011 Draft Watch brings you the first of our 50 in 30- a countdown of the top-50 2011 NHL draft prospects as we see it.
The rankings are compiled based on live viewings, streams, and as always, a generous amount of opinions from our NHL sources. Unlike THN or Bob McKenzie's TSN rankings- we do not poll scouts for our rankings, but rather, take the NHL team and Red Line Report approach of doing our live and video scouting to rank order the players in terms of projected impact, and then using the comments and feedback we get as the tie-breakers and deciding votes as to where the players are cast. This is not a mock draft- it's a list of who we see being the best right now...AND those players we feel have the best chance of making an NHL splash in the long run.
No player in our top-50 is a blind association. In other words, if we didn't at least see an online stream of the player, he's not in the rankings. We fully recognize that there could be a clear top-50 candidate who isn't going to make the cut, but the integrity of our list is important enough to live with that. The flip side is that there may be a few guys in our top-50 who aren't going to make that cut come draft day. Again- it's about bringing you what we see and hear and not just lifting someone else's work.
The 21-50 will be in three separate posts between now and May 31. Then, beginning June 1, we will do a comprehensive draft profile per day from 20 on down to 1. If you read the Bruins 2010 Draft Watch blog, then you know what's in store. If you didn't, then here's Tyler Seguin's from last May.
So without further ado, here's 50 in 30- Bruins Draft Watch style!
50. Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-11, 170 7/20/1993
Unappreciated! That's the one word we keep coming back to every time we see the diminutive but highly creative center play. He's versatile with nice wheels, a quick stick and the head to play well at the highest level. Cousins needs to get stronger, but that's the way it is with most players who are undersized. Cousins was knocking on the door to the B2011DW top-50, but after watching him be one of the real straws that stirred the drink for Canada at the World Under-18s, he jumps in there, and probably could be even higher than he is. This is a player who can score for you and plays a responsible defensive game, too. There is always room in the NHL for smart, skilled little men and Cousins is just that.
49. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA) 6-0, 190 09/26/1992
One of the draft's forgotten guys because he was injured and missed a lot of time early on when draft lists forming and buzz building. Not as big as his older brother Drew (might a growth spurt be on the way), a 2nd-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2009. Good skater and hands, but his hockey sense is what makes the younger Shore a worthwhile pick in the second round at the very least. He's underrated mostly because of the missed time and production. We have to remember that he was a freshman this year, and like his brother, could have a significant jump in numbers from one year to the next. Shore plays a solid all-around game and has some upside, too.
48. Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6-4, 190 1/13/1993
Burst onto the scene this season after playing for the Jr. A Vaughan Vipers in the OJHL last year and even at the beginning of 2010-11 and was a tough view playing in the Soo. Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com knows him well and saw the emergence of this big, swift-skating, hard-shooting defender with some big upside coming. Sproul is raw, yes- but whatever issues he may have with his defense and overall game, the fact remains that this kid scored most of his 14 goals after November. The right-shooting Mississauga native was originally going to go the NCAA route, but switched gears for the OHL, which we hear was the better move for him. Ultimately, he's going to get drafted higher than most think because guys who are as big, can skate and shoot like Sproul don't grow on trees. Boom or bust- probably. But homerun potential will be too tempting for him to remain on the board for long. This kid is going to be an off-the-board selection and we liked enough of what we saw of him in the U-18s to say it will happen in the second round.
Here is more on him from Edwards. He talks Zach Bell and Gabriel Landeskog first, but Sproul stuff at the 5:05 mark
And a HockeyProspect.com interview with him as well.
47. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-11, 190 2/15/1993
If you're a regular B2011DW reader, then you know that we weren't bullish on Russo, although we heard from scouts he had solid second-round potential. We just didn't see it in some of the action we saw Russo in earlier this season, but thought it was an entirely different player in Germany for the World Under-18s. The Team USA captain was very good in helping his squad win a third consecutive gold medal- he played with a ton of confidence and brought a two-way presence that had been lacking in our view. He's mobile, smart and can move the puck. Russo succeeded in Germany because he was patient, yet aggressive. He made the right decisions and provided timely offense. He has the skill to be a second-round pick, but the question is- can he play like he did internationally, or will some of the passive, indifferent play creep back in when he goes to Notre Dame next season.
46. Phillip Danault, C Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 162 2/24/1993
Le Petit Tigre- that was former NHL coach Michel Bergeron's nickname but it works for Danault, whose father is the team's PA announcer. Danault grew up around the team and has been a key player and captain. He's a small guy whose feet never stop moving and he never quits on the play. He's a good defensive center with an active stick who is tenacious on the forecheck and brings a lot of energy, hustle and character to the mix. He's not a high-end skill guy, but makes up for it with his effort. His size is what is keeping him from going higher, but we imagine that NHL teams will love his immeasurables more than what he brings to the table offensively. A classic more than the sum of his parts player, and with Danault we keep going back to the old scouting adage that says if a kid wants to be in the NHL badly enough, he'll probably get there.
45. Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180 3/09/1993
Former 1st overall selection in the OHL draft is a blazing, dynamic, game-breaker- He's the hot dog with extra mustard and all the relish. Coming into the year, he was looking lost in the shuffle after a tough season in '09-10, but he used the Eight Nations/Ivan Hlinka as a springboard for a 26-goal, 71-point season. Excellent skater and puckhandler who is a real dangler. His father, Maurice, coached Daniel, Ryan Murphy and Barclay Goodrow among others on the high-flying York-Simcoe Express minor midget team, so the younger Catenacci comes from a real hockey background. Catenacci gets into trouble when he goes into solo mode and tries to beat the other team by himself. Takes bad penalties and needs to work on keeping his emotions in check. His defense is also lacking and as an undersized guy needs to get a lot stronger. The Bruins have another player who is pretty similar in style at least- Ryan Spooner. But make no mistake- when on his game in the offensive zone, this kid can bring it. Disappointing showing at U18s for Canada- was outshined by Soo teammate Cousins, but has a higher upside.
44. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HEA) 5-11, 193 11/05/1992
We admit that Nieto is lower on this list than he will likely go in June. Another undersized, yet prolific offensive forward with speed to burn, quick hands and a killer instinct around the net. Nieto had high expectations coming into the season, but struggled out of the gate. The player we saw in November was tentative and ineffective in dealing with the higher-end players in the Hockey East, but by March, he was looking like the NTDP standout. He's an outstanding skater with the vision, hands and instincts to score a lot. But our hesitation comes from the difficulty in transitioning to the NCAA taken with his size, which is going to be an obstacle at the highest level. If Nieto can continue to get stronger and play his high octane, aggressively attacking style, he has a chance to do something, but he is a bit risky in that he's more of a top-six scoring guy than an effective checker if he can't get it done in the pros.
43. David Honzik, G Victoriaville (QMJHL) 6-3, 195 08/09/1993
B2011DW likes this Czech goaltender quite a bit. He's huge, agile and mentally tough. Honzik really came on after struggling with the transition to the 'Q' early on, saving his best for the playoffs. He played a valiant series against super power Saint John and demonstrated adroit puck stopping skills along with mental toughness and a competitive spirit. We heard great things about Honzik from Red Line Czech scout Radim Jelinek, and much of what he said about him checked out. B2011DW has Honzik ahead of Christopher Gibson as a better pro prospect. Gibson had a very good season in Chicoutimi and is a better player on paper, but there are things we've seen and heard about him that lead to believe that in time, Honzik has the higher upside.
42. Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)6-3, 205 07/01/1993
It was a tough year for Ritchie who was starting to round into form after a sluggish start, only to be felled by a bout with mono that effectively took him out of it for the balance of the season in January. Ritchie is a big kid with a nice stride who does all the things you want from your power winger along the walls. He takes the puck to the net, shields it effectively when in possession and cycling. He's not a real baggage smasher who goes out of his way to wreck guys, but will give a hit and take one. His mitts are OK, and yet he still managed 21 goals in 49 games this season so the potential is there for him so long as he continues to play in the greasy areas of the ice. NHL teams love those power forwards
41. Reid Boucher, LW 5-9, 186 09/08/1993
Boy, do we love this kid. The Michigan State recruit is probably too low on the B2011DW list, but the size and lack of high-end speed will bring him down in the draft, lower than he should go in our view. Boucher could legally change his last name to "Money" and he'd be well within his rights to do so. He's one of these guys who will cruise along and not really be noticed until the puck goes near the net and then he comes alive, pounces and will fire it home. This guy is a an apex predator when it comes to scoring goals- he has elite vision, anticipation, hands and a wicked release with pinpoint accuracy. No moment is ever to daunting to this guy, who scored eight goals in the Under-18 tourney, just about all of them key and important. He may not have the breakaway speed and separation of Rocco Grimaldi, but he's a legitimate sniper with a flair for the dramatic. Those guys are gold. Made the eligibility cutoff for 2011 by one week- one of the youngest players in the class.
The rankings are compiled based on live viewings, streams, and as always, a generous amount of opinions from our NHL sources. Unlike THN or Bob McKenzie's TSN rankings- we do not poll scouts for our rankings, but rather, take the NHL team and Red Line Report approach of doing our live and video scouting to rank order the players in terms of projected impact, and then using the comments and feedback we get as the tie-breakers and deciding votes as to where the players are cast. This is not a mock draft- it's a list of who we see being the best right now...AND those players we feel have the best chance of making an NHL splash in the long run.
No player in our top-50 is a blind association. In other words, if we didn't at least see an online stream of the player, he's not in the rankings. We fully recognize that there could be a clear top-50 candidate who isn't going to make the cut, but the integrity of our list is important enough to live with that. The flip side is that there may be a few guys in our top-50 who aren't going to make that cut come draft day. Again- it's about bringing you what we see and hear and not just lifting someone else's work.
The 21-50 will be in three separate posts between now and May 31. Then, beginning June 1, we will do a comprehensive draft profile per day from 20 on down to 1. If you read the Bruins 2010 Draft Watch blog, then you know what's in store. If you didn't, then here's Tyler Seguin's from last May.
So without further ado, here's 50 in 30- Bruins Draft Watch style!
50. Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-11, 170 7/20/1993
Unappreciated! That's the one word we keep coming back to every time we see the diminutive but highly creative center play. He's versatile with nice wheels, a quick stick and the head to play well at the highest level. Cousins needs to get stronger, but that's the way it is with most players who are undersized. Cousins was knocking on the door to the B2011DW top-50, but after watching him be one of the real straws that stirred the drink for Canada at the World Under-18s, he jumps in there, and probably could be even higher than he is. This is a player who can score for you and plays a responsible defensive game, too. There is always room in the NHL for smart, skilled little men and Cousins is just that.
49. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA) 6-0, 190 09/26/1992
One of the draft's forgotten guys because he was injured and missed a lot of time early on when draft lists forming and buzz building. Not as big as his older brother Drew (might a growth spurt be on the way), a 2nd-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2009. Good skater and hands, but his hockey sense is what makes the younger Shore a worthwhile pick in the second round at the very least. He's underrated mostly because of the missed time and production. We have to remember that he was a freshman this year, and like his brother, could have a significant jump in numbers from one year to the next. Shore plays a solid all-around game and has some upside, too.
48. Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6-4, 190 1/13/1993
Burst onto the scene this season after playing for the Jr. A Vaughan Vipers in the OJHL last year and even at the beginning of 2010-11 and was a tough view playing in the Soo. Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com knows him well and saw the emergence of this big, swift-skating, hard-shooting defender with some big upside coming. Sproul is raw, yes- but whatever issues he may have with his defense and overall game, the fact remains that this kid scored most of his 14 goals after November. The right-shooting Mississauga native was originally going to go the NCAA route, but switched gears for the OHL, which we hear was the better move for him. Ultimately, he's going to get drafted higher than most think because guys who are as big, can skate and shoot like Sproul don't grow on trees. Boom or bust- probably. But homerun potential will be too tempting for him to remain on the board for long. This kid is going to be an off-the-board selection and we liked enough of what we saw of him in the U-18s to say it will happen in the second round.
Here is more on him from Edwards. He talks Zach Bell and Gabriel Landeskog first, but Sproul stuff at the 5:05 mark
And a HockeyProspect.com interview with him as well.
47. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-11, 190 2/15/1993
If you're a regular B2011DW reader, then you know that we weren't bullish on Russo, although we heard from scouts he had solid second-round potential. We just didn't see it in some of the action we saw Russo in earlier this season, but thought it was an entirely different player in Germany for the World Under-18s. The Team USA captain was very good in helping his squad win a third consecutive gold medal- he played with a ton of confidence and brought a two-way presence that had been lacking in our view. He's mobile, smart and can move the puck. Russo succeeded in Germany because he was patient, yet aggressive. He made the right decisions and provided timely offense. He has the skill to be a second-round pick, but the question is- can he play like he did internationally, or will some of the passive, indifferent play creep back in when he goes to Notre Dame next season.
46. Phillip Danault, C Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 162 2/24/1993
Le Petit Tigre- that was former NHL coach Michel Bergeron's nickname but it works for Danault, whose father is the team's PA announcer. Danault grew up around the team and has been a key player and captain. He's a small guy whose feet never stop moving and he never quits on the play. He's a good defensive center with an active stick who is tenacious on the forecheck and brings a lot of energy, hustle and character to the mix. He's not a high-end skill guy, but makes up for it with his effort. His size is what is keeping him from going higher, but we imagine that NHL teams will love his immeasurables more than what he brings to the table offensively. A classic more than the sum of his parts player, and with Danault we keep going back to the old scouting adage that says if a kid wants to be in the NHL badly enough, he'll probably get there.
45. Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180 3/09/1993
Former 1st overall selection in the OHL draft is a blazing, dynamic, game-breaker- He's the hot dog with extra mustard and all the relish. Coming into the year, he was looking lost in the shuffle after a tough season in '09-10, but he used the Eight Nations/Ivan Hlinka as a springboard for a 26-goal, 71-point season. Excellent skater and puckhandler who is a real dangler. His father, Maurice, coached Daniel, Ryan Murphy and Barclay Goodrow among others on the high-flying York-Simcoe Express minor midget team, so the younger Catenacci comes from a real hockey background. Catenacci gets into trouble when he goes into solo mode and tries to beat the other team by himself. Takes bad penalties and needs to work on keeping his emotions in check. His defense is also lacking and as an undersized guy needs to get a lot stronger. The Bruins have another player who is pretty similar in style at least- Ryan Spooner. But make no mistake- when on his game in the offensive zone, this kid can bring it. Disappointing showing at U18s for Canada- was outshined by Soo teammate Cousins, but has a higher upside.
44. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HEA) 5-11, 193 11/05/1992
We admit that Nieto is lower on this list than he will likely go in June. Another undersized, yet prolific offensive forward with speed to burn, quick hands and a killer instinct around the net. Nieto had high expectations coming into the season, but struggled out of the gate. The player we saw in November was tentative and ineffective in dealing with the higher-end players in the Hockey East, but by March, he was looking like the NTDP standout. He's an outstanding skater with the vision, hands and instincts to score a lot. But our hesitation comes from the difficulty in transitioning to the NCAA taken with his size, which is going to be an obstacle at the highest level. If Nieto can continue to get stronger and play his high octane, aggressively attacking style, he has a chance to do something, but he is a bit risky in that he's more of a top-six scoring guy than an effective checker if he can't get it done in the pros.
43. David Honzik, G Victoriaville (QMJHL) 6-3, 195 08/09/1993
B2011DW likes this Czech goaltender quite a bit. He's huge, agile and mentally tough. Honzik really came on after struggling with the transition to the 'Q' early on, saving his best for the playoffs. He played a valiant series against super power Saint John and demonstrated adroit puck stopping skills along with mental toughness and a competitive spirit. We heard great things about Honzik from Red Line Czech scout Radim Jelinek, and much of what he said about him checked out. B2011DW has Honzik ahead of Christopher Gibson as a better pro prospect. Gibson had a very good season in Chicoutimi and is a better player on paper, but there are things we've seen and heard about him that lead to believe that in time, Honzik has the higher upside.
42. Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)6-3, 205 07/01/1993
It was a tough year for Ritchie who was starting to round into form after a sluggish start, only to be felled by a bout with mono that effectively took him out of it for the balance of the season in January. Ritchie is a big kid with a nice stride who does all the things you want from your power winger along the walls. He takes the puck to the net, shields it effectively when in possession and cycling. He's not a real baggage smasher who goes out of his way to wreck guys, but will give a hit and take one. His mitts are OK, and yet he still managed 21 goals in 49 games this season so the potential is there for him so long as he continues to play in the greasy areas of the ice. NHL teams love those power forwards
41. Reid Boucher, LW 5-9, 186 09/08/1993
Boy, do we love this kid. The Michigan State recruit is probably too low on the B2011DW list, but the size and lack of high-end speed will bring him down in the draft, lower than he should go in our view. Boucher could legally change his last name to "Money" and he'd be well within his rights to do so. He's one of these guys who will cruise along and not really be noticed until the puck goes near the net and then he comes alive, pounces and will fire it home. This guy is a an apex predator when it comes to scoring goals- he has elite vision, anticipation, hands and a wicked release with pinpoint accuracy. No moment is ever to daunting to this guy, who scored eight goals in the Under-18 tourney, just about all of them key and important. He may not have the breakaway speed and separation of Rocco Grimaldi, but he's a legitimate sniper with a flair for the dramatic. Those guys are gold. Made the eligibility cutoff for 2011 by one week- one of the youngest players in the class.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
2011 World Under-18: Risers and Fallers
The 2011 World Under-18 Championship is in the books, and Team USA achieved a first- winning three consecutive gold medals for the first time in USA Hockey history.
The 2009 squad did it on home soil in North Dakota, winning gold mainly thanks to 17-year-old Jack Campbell's arrival on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with, the precursor to the following season when he would capture championships at the 2010 Under-20 and again the Under-18 tourney in Belarus.
This time, the USA team, not considered by most as exceptional as the force of nature that blew through the field a year ago, got the goaltending from new star John Gibson, and then a host of balanced, opportunistic two-way play by the rest of the team led by forwards J.T. Miller (leading scorer with 13 points in six games), Reid Boucher (top goal-getter with eight), Robbie Russo (captain and strong two-way performance- eight points, +5 rating) and of course, the heroics of Rocco Grimaldi, who may not have shot out the lights on the scoreboard, but made myriad contributions to the championship in other areas.
Still, Team Sweden came to within just 1:29 of capturing that country's first gold medal in Under-18 tournament history (remarkable that the Tre Kronor have never accomplished this feat given Sweden's status as a two-time Olympic champion and global hockey power).
The defense corps, led by Jonas Brodin and captain Oscar Klefbom, performed in outstanding fashion throughout the tourney. Along with Rasmus Bengtsson and Albin Blomkvist, they formed one of the most effective top-four back line units you will see in hockey. The Swedish D didn't make many mistakes, but unfortunately when they did, it resulted in a spectacularly devastating loss at the hands of the Americans in overtime.
Russia captured bronze, and got a ridiculous offensive explosion from forward Nikita Kucherov, scoring 11 goals and 21 points in just 8 games. It was Alexander Ovechkin-like production, and the enigmatic winger certainly succeeded in raising his stock for the 2011 draft. Just how much, remains to be seen, however. More on Kucherov later.
Other big stories for the Russians were the performances of 2012 eligibles Nail Yakupov (6 goals, 13 points) and Mikhail Grigorenko (4 goals, 18 points) in seven games. Yakupov started slowly, but came on strong in the final couple of games of the the preliminary round and in the last two against Sweden and Canada. Grigorenko was consistently excellent throughout, and we could be looking at a possible 1-2 Russian class of Yakupov and Grigorenko or vice versa just as we saw in 2004 with Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.
Of course, if Canadian stud defender Ryan Murray has anything to say about it, he'll crash the top-two party in 2012. He was tremendous as the captain and as a stalwart dual-threat on the back end. Although Ryan Murphy won top defenseman honors with a brilliant 13-point performance to set a Team Canada scoring record (that's right- forwards too- Murphy scored more points than any Canadian player in U18 tourney history- wow!), it took Murphy's four-point day in a losing cause for the bronze medal to secure the honors, otherwise, it just might have been Murray.
Once again, the history of the U18 tourney having positive and negative effects on the upcoming draft class proved true, and scouts are no doubt eagerly anticipating the race to 2012, with so many intriguing story lines emerging in Germany.
Now, let's look at some players who helped and hurt themselves in this tournament in our view. We can't dedicate this space to each and every one, so consider this the cliff's notes version.
Risers
Nikita Kucherov, F Russia- We're going to start calling him "Midas" because everything he touched turned to gold. Unbelievable offensive performance by one of the more skilled prospects in the entire class, but who hurt his standing this season by looking disinterested and acting at times petulant in earlier tournaments. Kucherov saved his best for last, putting on a tour-de-force that no doubt will have some NHL teams who do not fear drafting out of Europe readjusting their previous thinking on him. Before the tourney we would have thought there was no way Kucherov would be a first-round pick, but if you're a club picking in the final few spots of this draft, why wouldn't try to swing for the fences? If he does drop into the second, the wait won't be a long one. Showed enough game-breaking speed, quick hands and an absolutely serial killer instinct when it came to finishing off chances.
Ryan Murphy, D Canada- When you've been one of the most talked-about prospects for the top-10 of the NHL draft all season, is it actually possible to raise your stock? Well, the Aurora, Ontario native and Kitchener Rangers star did it in Germany. The production was record-setting in itself, but it was how Murphy scored the points that had tongues a-wagging. Whether firing up the ice like he had rockets on his skates, or slithering through defenses while showing off several gears and superlative edge control/balance or making 360-degree spin moves and blind passes on the stick tape of teammates, Murphy was as dynamic as they come. Bruins fans who were hoping he would fall to the ninth spot now can only hope that if he is Boston's target, that the team can move up to secure him, because we just don't see him dropping very far out of the top-five (if at all even) after the kind of season, OHL playoffs and now Under-18 performance he just had. In fact, B2011DW wouldn't be at all surprised if the New Jersey Devils grabbed him as high as fourth overall. Sure, it will depend on who drops to them, but for a team who knew exactly what it had with Scott Niedermayer for over a decade, this kid's high-end offensive chops aren't far off.
J.T. Miller, C USA- One of the bigger disappointments this season for the U.S. NTDP because his production never seemed to be commensurate with his excellent physical tools, Miller finally broke through with the kind of dominant, consistent scoring performance scouts have been waiting for. The 6-1 center from Ohio scored four goals (and some big ones at that) and was a consistent passer and playmaker. The top line of Miller, Boucher and Grimaldi gave other teams fits throughout the tourney and Miller was often the one who found himself with the time and space to make things happen with. To his credit, he did. It helped to have a linemate in Boucher who was shooting the lights out in critical situations, but Miller looked and played like a solid first-round pick. Someone who liked his tools but was concerned with the lack of production just might have seen enough to grab him top-20. Even if he slips out of that bracket, we can't imagine he'd miss on the opening 30 picks. Too much talent and upside there.
Jonas Brodin, D Sweden- The controller; we were pretty impressed at how smoothly and effectively Brodin took charge of the Swedish defense corps, turning them into the prettiest transition unit in the entire field. The way Sweden broke out of their end was poetry in motion, and it all started with Brodin who isn't a flashy player (just one assist in four games), but seems to see the ice and think many steps ahead of everyone else like a chess grandmaster. He's got the head and feet to orchestrate the attack, even if he lacks the strength and overpowering shot to be a big point getter. If intelligent puck movers are at a premium, then don't expect Brodin to last very long on June 24th- he's slick and when it comes down to it, a pretty commanding presence. He doesn't get enough credit for what he brings to the table in our view.
Mark Scheifele, C Canada- Young colt lived up to his Barrie namesake with a very good offensive performance. Scored one of the more memorable goals of anyone in the tourney against Finland when he read a bungled pass, split the defense, fought off a hook from behind and still managed to put the puck in the net with a nice backhand deke. 6-3 guys don't typically move the way he does with that ability to separate, so there is a lot of raw material to work with. At about 175, he's nowhere near as strong as he needs to be. However, he more than solidified a first-round draft grade in our view. He's a poor man's Ryan Johansen at this stage we feel- won't go as high, but his progress and potentially high ceiling will see him picked ahead of other higher-profile players who are bigger names and have been in draft discussions longer. Classic guy who came into the U18s with some questions to answer and passed with flying colors. Happens every year.
Joel Armia, F Finland- Took charge up front for Finland and proved himself a solid first-round selection with his offensive performance. His big frame needs work to add mass and strength, but he's got a long stride and the ability to generate speed and separation. He's still a little gangly and not overly strong on his skates, but getting there. A vicious killer between the hashmarks- wants the puck and knows what to do with it when he gets it. One of the best pure goal scorers in the draft and impressed us with his vision and playmaking skills in this tourney as well. Creative and a better puck distributor than we gave him credit for. Not very physical, but not a soft player, either. Uses his trunk and long limbs to create space and bull his way to the net. Doesn't speak English very well yet, but uses two very important words often: "puck" and "score". His effort without the puck is what is holding him back from a top-10 selection in our view. He can be lackadaisical and is inconsistent in his backchecking efforts. If its a maturity thing, he could be a homerun pick, but if he's only motivated offensively, then he's a one-dimensional guy and may never be as good a player as he should be.
Victor Rask, C Sweden- Got his sliding value going in the other direction with a very good preliminary round performance, especially against Canada to earn the top seed in group. Big, offensively-savy centerman who isn't a great skater but gets from point A to B well enough. He'll get more balanced and stronger on his skates, and while he'll never be a speed demon, he goes to the net with some power. Soft hands for passing and can unleash a good, heavy shot. Not much of a showing against the USA in the gold medal game, but we're grading the overall tournament performance and he did some nice things reminiscent of what scouts were expecting from him after his performance in this same tournament a year ago. Will some team take him in the 1st round? Possibly- don't bet against it. However, his season overall is still a disappointment given the expectations he had coming in. Good rebound, but he won't get anywhere near the bounce of a Kucherov, for example.
Reid Boucher, F USA- Gutsy little scorer found the back of the net eight times in the tournament, which wasn't at the top of the charts, but his timing was tremendous. Michigan State recruit is undersized and not all that fast a skater, but he more than makes up with it for his natural anticipation and knack for finding open ice and a wicked shot that he can unleash from anywhere. He did this at the Five Nations in February and raised a few eyebrows, but the encore performance on an even bigger stage should have done enough to see him secure second-round status. Scorers like Boucher don't grow on trees, and while he's not the showman Grimaldi is in terms of being noticeable on every shift, he's highly dangerous and just knows how to be clutch. Also led his team in plus/minus with +9, so he's responsible defensively and kills penalties, too. One of Ron Rolston's go-to guys who delivered.
John Gibson, G USA- What more can we say about this guy that we haven't already? Super size, quickness and technique. Makes things look easy when they aren't. But the best thing about him is his calm and poise. He weathered the storm of a Canada comeback yesterday to secure an overtime win, then hung in with his team down a couple of goals to make every stop the rest of the way in yet another overtime victory to clinch gold. We were looking for him to step out from behind Campbell's international shadow, and the Pittsburgh native did precisely that. Awesome performance from the tournament's top netminder, and he's all but sewn up status as the first goaltender off the board in June.
Robbie Russo, D USA- It's no secret that B2011DW was pretty critical of Russo's performance during earlier viewings of him this season, and we weren't hearing great things about him from sources either. But, he pulled it together in time to have an excellent tournament befitting of some of the hype. He's headed to Notre Dame next season and should make a pretty immediate impact if he plays in the NCAA like he did in Germany. Smart, crisp puck mover all tournament long and worked with Connor Murphy to set up the winning goal against Sweden. Wasn't as strong as the tourney went on as he was in the beginning, but what can we say? He at least looked like the PMD some circles were hyping him as.
Connor Murphy, D USA- This was a make-or-break tourney for Murphy to land in the top-60 and he looks to have made it. Big, talented two-way defender who won't put up a ton of points, but is an effective point man with a big shot. Miami University recruit is staying in his home state to play for the Redhawks, and the only real questions he needs to answer are ones about his durability. Kid can play and looks to have more offensive potential than his dad, Gord, who was a solid NHL stay-at-homer in his day.
Dmitrij Jaskin, F CZE- Power winger helped himself with four goals in five games, showing off his wicked release and powerful shot. Heavy feet, yes, but competes hard and is a physical player with a North American flavor to his game already. Below average skaters always have it in tough to make it in the NHL, which is a skating man's league, but when they are big, strong, intelligent and passionate about the game the way Jaskin is, they usually find a way to make it. If he could get a little faster he has top-six potential for sure.
Fallers
Tyler Biggs, F USA- Tough tournament for a kid who is unfairly becoming a whipping boy, but we also have to call it the way we see it. He hurt his team with way too many penalties. Now in fairness, some of the calls that went against him were the classic- he's bigger (no pun intended) than the other guy and the hits looked worse than they were- type infractions that tend to get whistled more during international play. However, he also took his share of lazy, undisciplined calls and that's what drives us crazy. The roughing call he took against Canada just after Boucher made it 4-1 was particularly galling because it was completely unnecessary and also sparked that team's comeback. Biggs is a powerful skater with a heavy shot, but we didn't see him creating much on his own offensively other than scoring the winning goal against Canada in OT that several onlookers felt goaltender Malcolm Subban should have stopped. Biggs was unfairly rated too high by Central scouting at mid-term and he's the easy target right now because he didn't produce consistently while others on his squad did. Right or wrong, fair or unfair- it is what it is.
Joachim Nermark, F SWE- Ugh. Just a disappointing showing for a guy who was tremendous at the Ivan Hlinka but has been all downhill since. One goal in five games...invisible against the USA. One scout we talked to said, 'We have no use for him." Ouch. He may yet be a top-60 pick because of what he did in Slovakia, but we wouldn't touch him in that range based on what we saw here. Risky pick and we're not even sure of the payoff. Did not help himself at all.
Samu Perhonen, G FIN- Brutal is a polite way to put this promising netminder's performance. He was shaky from jump street against Canada and never recovered, stopping a putrid 87.5% of his shots and going 2-2 in the process. We thought this cat would challenge Gibson for top netminder honors at the 2011 draft, and now we don't even think Perhonen will be the first European picked (Magnus Hellberg). He's still a top-two or three-round pick, but after seeing him and Gibson in the same competition, they seem light years apart. Perhonen's lack of poise was what was particularly troublesome- just couldn't seem to make the big save when his team needed it. However, Perhonen still has the size and athletic ability/upside to be a high-end stopper in the NHL one day. If he slides, that could be great news for the team that grabs him.
Reece Scarlett, D CAN- Has showed some impressive traits and potential in flashes, but this was a tough tourney for the WHL defender. He's not where he needs to be in terms of his physical development and strength. He also made some bad pinches and decisions that proved costly. Seemed hesitant at times and was caught in no man's land. Real smooth stride and mobility, but in this game, that split second delayed reaction will burn you even if you skate well. He wasn't quite ready for primetime and opponents exploited him.
Daniel Catenacci, F CAN- Just two assists for this speedy, skilled and even dynamic forward were a major disappointment. Capable of so much more, yet went invisible for long stretches. On top of that, took a lot of bad penalties and never could seem to get out of his own way. All of this from a guy some on the internet are talking about as a potential first-rounder in June? We don't think so. Soo Greyhounds teammate Nick Cousins skated circles around him (4-4-8) and was one of the guys who emerged as a big-time clutch performer.
Miikka Salomaki, F FIN- We weren't very impressed with this guy's NHL upside, but kept hearing that teams were keeping an eye out for him. Well, after watching him at the WJC over the winter and on video at the U18s, we can't see him being a top-three round pick. He might get there, but that could be a mistake. Doesn't do anything particularly well, and just seems like a solid Euro leaguer and nothing more.
B2011DW will be back with a look at some sleepers who may have emerged from the shadows a bit, and even if some were more known, appear to have the inside track on hearing their names called in Minnesota.
The 2009 squad did it on home soil in North Dakota, winning gold mainly thanks to 17-year-old Jack Campbell's arrival on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with, the precursor to the following season when he would capture championships at the 2010 Under-20 and again the Under-18 tourney in Belarus.
This time, the USA team, not considered by most as exceptional as the force of nature that blew through the field a year ago, got the goaltending from new star John Gibson, and then a host of balanced, opportunistic two-way play by the rest of the team led by forwards J.T. Miller (leading scorer with 13 points in six games), Reid Boucher (top goal-getter with eight), Robbie Russo (captain and strong two-way performance- eight points, +5 rating) and of course, the heroics of Rocco Grimaldi, who may not have shot out the lights on the scoreboard, but made myriad contributions to the championship in other areas.
Still, Team Sweden came to within just 1:29 of capturing that country's first gold medal in Under-18 tournament history (remarkable that the Tre Kronor have never accomplished this feat given Sweden's status as a two-time Olympic champion and global hockey power).
The defense corps, led by Jonas Brodin and captain Oscar Klefbom, performed in outstanding fashion throughout the tourney. Along with Rasmus Bengtsson and Albin Blomkvist, they formed one of the most effective top-four back line units you will see in hockey. The Swedish D didn't make many mistakes, but unfortunately when they did, it resulted in a spectacularly devastating loss at the hands of the Americans in overtime.
Russia captured bronze, and got a ridiculous offensive explosion from forward Nikita Kucherov, scoring 11 goals and 21 points in just 8 games. It was Alexander Ovechkin-like production, and the enigmatic winger certainly succeeded in raising his stock for the 2011 draft. Just how much, remains to be seen, however. More on Kucherov later.
Other big stories for the Russians were the performances of 2012 eligibles Nail Yakupov (6 goals, 13 points) and Mikhail Grigorenko (4 goals, 18 points) in seven games. Yakupov started slowly, but came on strong in the final couple of games of the the preliminary round and in the last two against Sweden and Canada. Grigorenko was consistently excellent throughout, and we could be looking at a possible 1-2 Russian class of Yakupov and Grigorenko or vice versa just as we saw in 2004 with Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.
Of course, if Canadian stud defender Ryan Murray has anything to say about it, he'll crash the top-two party in 2012. He was tremendous as the captain and as a stalwart dual-threat on the back end. Although Ryan Murphy won top defenseman honors with a brilliant 13-point performance to set a Team Canada scoring record (that's right- forwards too- Murphy scored more points than any Canadian player in U18 tourney history- wow!), it took Murphy's four-point day in a losing cause for the bronze medal to secure the honors, otherwise, it just might have been Murray.
Once again, the history of the U18 tourney having positive and negative effects on the upcoming draft class proved true, and scouts are no doubt eagerly anticipating the race to 2012, with so many intriguing story lines emerging in Germany.
Now, let's look at some players who helped and hurt themselves in this tournament in our view. We can't dedicate this space to each and every one, so consider this the cliff's notes version.
Risers
Nikita Kucherov, F Russia- We're going to start calling him "Midas" because everything he touched turned to gold. Unbelievable offensive performance by one of the more skilled prospects in the entire class, but who hurt his standing this season by looking disinterested and acting at times petulant in earlier tournaments. Kucherov saved his best for last, putting on a tour-de-force that no doubt will have some NHL teams who do not fear drafting out of Europe readjusting their previous thinking on him. Before the tourney we would have thought there was no way Kucherov would be a first-round pick, but if you're a club picking in the final few spots of this draft, why wouldn't try to swing for the fences? If he does drop into the second, the wait won't be a long one. Showed enough game-breaking speed, quick hands and an absolutely serial killer instinct when it came to finishing off chances.
Ryan Murphy, D Canada- When you've been one of the most talked-about prospects for the top-10 of the NHL draft all season, is it actually possible to raise your stock? Well, the Aurora, Ontario native and Kitchener Rangers star did it in Germany. The production was record-setting in itself, but it was how Murphy scored the points that had tongues a-wagging. Whether firing up the ice like he had rockets on his skates, or slithering through defenses while showing off several gears and superlative edge control/balance or making 360-degree spin moves and blind passes on the stick tape of teammates, Murphy was as dynamic as they come. Bruins fans who were hoping he would fall to the ninth spot now can only hope that if he is Boston's target, that the team can move up to secure him, because we just don't see him dropping very far out of the top-five (if at all even) after the kind of season, OHL playoffs and now Under-18 performance he just had. In fact, B2011DW wouldn't be at all surprised if the New Jersey Devils grabbed him as high as fourth overall. Sure, it will depend on who drops to them, but for a team who knew exactly what it had with Scott Niedermayer for over a decade, this kid's high-end offensive chops aren't far off.
J.T. Miller, C USA- One of the bigger disappointments this season for the U.S. NTDP because his production never seemed to be commensurate with his excellent physical tools, Miller finally broke through with the kind of dominant, consistent scoring performance scouts have been waiting for. The 6-1 center from Ohio scored four goals (and some big ones at that) and was a consistent passer and playmaker. The top line of Miller, Boucher and Grimaldi gave other teams fits throughout the tourney and Miller was often the one who found himself with the time and space to make things happen with. To his credit, he did. It helped to have a linemate in Boucher who was shooting the lights out in critical situations, but Miller looked and played like a solid first-round pick. Someone who liked his tools but was concerned with the lack of production just might have seen enough to grab him top-20. Even if he slips out of that bracket, we can't imagine he'd miss on the opening 30 picks. Too much talent and upside there.
Jonas Brodin, D Sweden- The controller; we were pretty impressed at how smoothly and effectively Brodin took charge of the Swedish defense corps, turning them into the prettiest transition unit in the entire field. The way Sweden broke out of their end was poetry in motion, and it all started with Brodin who isn't a flashy player (just one assist in four games), but seems to see the ice and think many steps ahead of everyone else like a chess grandmaster. He's got the head and feet to orchestrate the attack, even if he lacks the strength and overpowering shot to be a big point getter. If intelligent puck movers are at a premium, then don't expect Brodin to last very long on June 24th- he's slick and when it comes down to it, a pretty commanding presence. He doesn't get enough credit for what he brings to the table in our view.
Mark Scheifele, C Canada- Young colt lived up to his Barrie namesake with a very good offensive performance. Scored one of the more memorable goals of anyone in the tourney against Finland when he read a bungled pass, split the defense, fought off a hook from behind and still managed to put the puck in the net with a nice backhand deke. 6-3 guys don't typically move the way he does with that ability to separate, so there is a lot of raw material to work with. At about 175, he's nowhere near as strong as he needs to be. However, he more than solidified a first-round draft grade in our view. He's a poor man's Ryan Johansen at this stage we feel- won't go as high, but his progress and potentially high ceiling will see him picked ahead of other higher-profile players who are bigger names and have been in draft discussions longer. Classic guy who came into the U18s with some questions to answer and passed with flying colors. Happens every year.
Joel Armia, F Finland- Took charge up front for Finland and proved himself a solid first-round selection with his offensive performance. His big frame needs work to add mass and strength, but he's got a long stride and the ability to generate speed and separation. He's still a little gangly and not overly strong on his skates, but getting there. A vicious killer between the hashmarks- wants the puck and knows what to do with it when he gets it. One of the best pure goal scorers in the draft and impressed us with his vision and playmaking skills in this tourney as well. Creative and a better puck distributor than we gave him credit for. Not very physical, but not a soft player, either. Uses his trunk and long limbs to create space and bull his way to the net. Doesn't speak English very well yet, but uses two very important words often: "puck" and "score". His effort without the puck is what is holding him back from a top-10 selection in our view. He can be lackadaisical and is inconsistent in his backchecking efforts. If its a maturity thing, he could be a homerun pick, but if he's only motivated offensively, then he's a one-dimensional guy and may never be as good a player as he should be.
Victor Rask, C Sweden- Got his sliding value going in the other direction with a very good preliminary round performance, especially against Canada to earn the top seed in group. Big, offensively-savy centerman who isn't a great skater but gets from point A to B well enough. He'll get more balanced and stronger on his skates, and while he'll never be a speed demon, he goes to the net with some power. Soft hands for passing and can unleash a good, heavy shot. Not much of a showing against the USA in the gold medal game, but we're grading the overall tournament performance and he did some nice things reminiscent of what scouts were expecting from him after his performance in this same tournament a year ago. Will some team take him in the 1st round? Possibly- don't bet against it. However, his season overall is still a disappointment given the expectations he had coming in. Good rebound, but he won't get anywhere near the bounce of a Kucherov, for example.
Reid Boucher, F USA- Gutsy little scorer found the back of the net eight times in the tournament, which wasn't at the top of the charts, but his timing was tremendous. Michigan State recruit is undersized and not all that fast a skater, but he more than makes up with it for his natural anticipation and knack for finding open ice and a wicked shot that he can unleash from anywhere. He did this at the Five Nations in February and raised a few eyebrows, but the encore performance on an even bigger stage should have done enough to see him secure second-round status. Scorers like Boucher don't grow on trees, and while he's not the showman Grimaldi is in terms of being noticeable on every shift, he's highly dangerous and just knows how to be clutch. Also led his team in plus/minus with +9, so he's responsible defensively and kills penalties, too. One of Ron Rolston's go-to guys who delivered.
John Gibson, G USA- What more can we say about this guy that we haven't already? Super size, quickness and technique. Makes things look easy when they aren't. But the best thing about him is his calm and poise. He weathered the storm of a Canada comeback yesterday to secure an overtime win, then hung in with his team down a couple of goals to make every stop the rest of the way in yet another overtime victory to clinch gold. We were looking for him to step out from behind Campbell's international shadow, and the Pittsburgh native did precisely that. Awesome performance from the tournament's top netminder, and he's all but sewn up status as the first goaltender off the board in June.
Robbie Russo, D USA- It's no secret that B2011DW was pretty critical of Russo's performance during earlier viewings of him this season, and we weren't hearing great things about him from sources either. But, he pulled it together in time to have an excellent tournament befitting of some of the hype. He's headed to Notre Dame next season and should make a pretty immediate impact if he plays in the NCAA like he did in Germany. Smart, crisp puck mover all tournament long and worked with Connor Murphy to set up the winning goal against Sweden. Wasn't as strong as the tourney went on as he was in the beginning, but what can we say? He at least looked like the PMD some circles were hyping him as.
Connor Murphy, D USA- This was a make-or-break tourney for Murphy to land in the top-60 and he looks to have made it. Big, talented two-way defender who won't put up a ton of points, but is an effective point man with a big shot. Miami University recruit is staying in his home state to play for the Redhawks, and the only real questions he needs to answer are ones about his durability. Kid can play and looks to have more offensive potential than his dad, Gord, who was a solid NHL stay-at-homer in his day.
Dmitrij Jaskin, F CZE- Power winger helped himself with four goals in five games, showing off his wicked release and powerful shot. Heavy feet, yes, but competes hard and is a physical player with a North American flavor to his game already. Below average skaters always have it in tough to make it in the NHL, which is a skating man's league, but when they are big, strong, intelligent and passionate about the game the way Jaskin is, they usually find a way to make it. If he could get a little faster he has top-six potential for sure.
Fallers
Tyler Biggs, F USA- Tough tournament for a kid who is unfairly becoming a whipping boy, but we also have to call it the way we see it. He hurt his team with way too many penalties. Now in fairness, some of the calls that went against him were the classic- he's bigger (no pun intended) than the other guy and the hits looked worse than they were- type infractions that tend to get whistled more during international play. However, he also took his share of lazy, undisciplined calls and that's what drives us crazy. The roughing call he took against Canada just after Boucher made it 4-1 was particularly galling because it was completely unnecessary and also sparked that team's comeback. Biggs is a powerful skater with a heavy shot, but we didn't see him creating much on his own offensively other than scoring the winning goal against Canada in OT that several onlookers felt goaltender Malcolm Subban should have stopped. Biggs was unfairly rated too high by Central scouting at mid-term and he's the easy target right now because he didn't produce consistently while others on his squad did. Right or wrong, fair or unfair- it is what it is.
Joachim Nermark, F SWE- Ugh. Just a disappointing showing for a guy who was tremendous at the Ivan Hlinka but has been all downhill since. One goal in five games...invisible against the USA. One scout we talked to said, 'We have no use for him." Ouch. He may yet be a top-60 pick because of what he did in Slovakia, but we wouldn't touch him in that range based on what we saw here. Risky pick and we're not even sure of the payoff. Did not help himself at all.
Samu Perhonen, G FIN- Brutal is a polite way to put this promising netminder's performance. He was shaky from jump street against Canada and never recovered, stopping a putrid 87.5% of his shots and going 2-2 in the process. We thought this cat would challenge Gibson for top netminder honors at the 2011 draft, and now we don't even think Perhonen will be the first European picked (Magnus Hellberg). He's still a top-two or three-round pick, but after seeing him and Gibson in the same competition, they seem light years apart. Perhonen's lack of poise was what was particularly troublesome- just couldn't seem to make the big save when his team needed it. However, Perhonen still has the size and athletic ability/upside to be a high-end stopper in the NHL one day. If he slides, that could be great news for the team that grabs him.
Reece Scarlett, D CAN- Has showed some impressive traits and potential in flashes, but this was a tough tourney for the WHL defender. He's not where he needs to be in terms of his physical development and strength. He also made some bad pinches and decisions that proved costly. Seemed hesitant at times and was caught in no man's land. Real smooth stride and mobility, but in this game, that split second delayed reaction will burn you even if you skate well. He wasn't quite ready for primetime and opponents exploited him.
Daniel Catenacci, F CAN- Just two assists for this speedy, skilled and even dynamic forward were a major disappointment. Capable of so much more, yet went invisible for long stretches. On top of that, took a lot of bad penalties and never could seem to get out of his own way. All of this from a guy some on the internet are talking about as a potential first-rounder in June? We don't think so. Soo Greyhounds teammate Nick Cousins skated circles around him (4-4-8) and was one of the guys who emerged as a big-time clutch performer.
Miikka Salomaki, F FIN- We weren't very impressed with this guy's NHL upside, but kept hearing that teams were keeping an eye out for him. Well, after watching him at the WJC over the winter and on video at the U18s, we can't see him being a top-three round pick. He might get there, but that could be a mistake. Doesn't do anything particularly well, and just seems like a solid Euro leaguer and nothing more.
B2011DW will be back with a look at some sleepers who may have emerged from the shadows a bit, and even if some were more known, appear to have the inside track on hearing their names called in Minnesota.
Friday, April 22, 2011
World Under-18 Semifinals Saturday: USA-Canada, Sweden-Russia
The big-four hockey powers are all in the World Under-18 Championship dance!
USA is attempting to win three U18 gold medals for the first time in history, but it won't be easy. Though Germany pushed Canada to the brink, Soo Greyhounds forward Nick Cousins continued his excellent play in the tourney with a late power play goal with less than five minutes left to propel Canada into the final-four, 4-3.
Russia smoked Finland by a 5-2 score, with defenseman Andrey Pedan getting a pair of assists, while forward Nikita Kucherov continued his tourney-leading points assault with a goal and helper. Kucherov is tremendously talented, but has been graded down for diving and effort concerns this season. We've not seen much of that in the tourney, however. He's been the real straw stirring the drink for the Russians. Pedan is more of a project, a big kid at about 6-5 who can skate and shoot, but played a very conservative game for Guelph of the OHL this season. He's been more active offensively on the bigger ice surfaces of the U18s and is the kind of raw prospect with impressive physical tools who could be worth a look in the third round.
Sweden will take on the Russians, and you have to like the Swedish defensive group. Led by Jonas Brodin, they also boast some studs in Oscar Klefbom and Rasmus Bengtsson and small but skilled Karl Johansson. It will be Russia's high octane offense led by Kucherov and also featuring Nail Yakupov and Maxim Shalunov against Sweden's mobile, heady and dangerous blue line corps. Can't wait!
The Americans have been off since Tuesday when they beat Germany to go 4-0-0-0 in the round robin. This is a tough challenge for them, because like the WJC U20 team who cruised, they have yet to go up against a squad in the tourney with the kind of size and power along with some smaller speed and skill players like Cousins, Daniel Catenacci and high-flying defenseman Ryan Murphy.
USA will need a terrific game from John Gibson to advance to the gold medal game, but they have no shortage of gamers who have managed to alternately grab the ring and be heroes when the team has needed it. One player who has yet to make much of an impact is winger Tyler Biggs. Getting some offense going against Canada would be a good spot for him to start.
USA is attempting to win three U18 gold medals for the first time in history, but it won't be easy. Though Germany pushed Canada to the brink, Soo Greyhounds forward Nick Cousins continued his excellent play in the tourney with a late power play goal with less than five minutes left to propel Canada into the final-four, 4-3.
Russia smoked Finland by a 5-2 score, with defenseman Andrey Pedan getting a pair of assists, while forward Nikita Kucherov continued his tourney-leading points assault with a goal and helper. Kucherov is tremendously talented, but has been graded down for diving and effort concerns this season. We've not seen much of that in the tourney, however. He's been the real straw stirring the drink for the Russians. Pedan is more of a project, a big kid at about 6-5 who can skate and shoot, but played a very conservative game for Guelph of the OHL this season. He's been more active offensively on the bigger ice surfaces of the U18s and is the kind of raw prospect with impressive physical tools who could be worth a look in the third round.
Sweden will take on the Russians, and you have to like the Swedish defensive group. Led by Jonas Brodin, they also boast some studs in Oscar Klefbom and Rasmus Bengtsson and small but skilled Karl Johansson. It will be Russia's high octane offense led by Kucherov and also featuring Nail Yakupov and Maxim Shalunov against Sweden's mobile, heady and dangerous blue line corps. Can't wait!
The Americans have been off since Tuesday when they beat Germany to go 4-0-0-0 in the round robin. This is a tough challenge for them, because like the WJC U20 team who cruised, they have yet to go up against a squad in the tourney with the kind of size and power along with some smaller speed and skill players like Cousins, Daniel Catenacci and high-flying defenseman Ryan Murphy.
USA will need a terrific game from John Gibson to advance to the gold medal game, but they have no shortage of gamers who have managed to alternately grab the ring and be heroes when the team has needed it. One player who has yet to make much of an impact is winger Tyler Biggs. Getting some offense going against Canada would be a good spot for him to start.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Under-18 Championship Analysis: Canada
Team Canada announced the roster today for the World Under-18 Championship tournament which will be held in Crimmitschau and Dresden, Germany, next week (official games begin April 14th).
This post will analyze the 2011-eligible players *only*. We'll get to the 2012 draft prospects in a later post.
At first look, this Canada team will avoid the poor performance of the 2010 entry a year ago. It has some balance between skill and power, finesse and brute force. There is an interesting dynamic on defense, where the majority of the players at that position are 2012-eligible players (4-3), whereas at forward, the roster leans heavily to 2011 (11-2).
How it will work out this month remains to be seen, but at face value, the team has the talent and versatility to win gold in Germany. A lot of it is going to come down to the goaltending, but this squad has to be seen as a contender.
Andrew D'Agostini, G- Small, unorthodox goalie was under siege for much of the year playing for the Peterborough Petes, and his numbers reflect that: 10-25-2 record, .882 save percentage, 4.35 GAA. He's not a butterfly-style goalie and to be honest, at his size, the current accepted netminder style is not a good fit. He tends to rely on his quickness, positioning and never-say-die attitude to get things done. Unfortunately, his size limits him, and he wasn't able to overcome Peterborough's talent issues this season. He'll backup Malcolm Subban (Montreal defenseman P.K. Subban's brother), but may be on the team because of his mental makeup and ability to play under extreme pressure, which is what this kind of tournament is. If Subban falters, D'Agostini could enjoy success given the talent level of the team in front of him because he's used to seeing a ton of rubber and having to deal with playing from behind a lot. He's seen it all before.
Ryan Murphy, D- We won't break down his talent here. Just go to the myriad posts this blog has done in the past, including this week's "case for" entry to see what the small but dynamic Murphy brings to the table. His presence on the U18 squad is a validation of the snub he got from Al Murray over the summer, when Murphy was not selected for the gold medal-winning team that traveled to Slovakia for the Ivan Hlinka tourney. With 26 goals and 79 points in just his second OHL season, this kid is the real deal and will give Canada a legitimate offensive threat every time his skates touch the ice. He could make or break a potential top-five selection in the 2011 draft with his performance this month, and if his performance to date is any indication, we believe he'll raise his stock when the games are in the books.
Scott Harrington, D- If Murphy raised his stock this season and and answered a lot of questions about his NHL upside, Harrington's season had the opposite effect in many scouting circles. With good size and skating ability, Harrington was projected as a player who was a solid defensive presence, but who had some offensive potential as well. Unfortunately, that element of his game did not come in what was a pretty tough year for the London Knights. The defense isn't so much an issue for Harrington with the scouts as it was his indecision and attempt to bring the offense, only to be met with a lack of success. He has the attributes to be a solid NHL defender in time, but he took a step back in his development with his six-goals and 22 points. He's rock solid defensively, using his strength to keep the front of his net clear and an active stick to limit time and space and take away shooting lanes. He can make the basic breakout, but isn't much of a puck mover. He keeps things simple, and as long as he doesn't try and do too much, he's fine. Harrington could end up being a real value pick for an NHL team if he drops, but he could also just be one of those meat-and-potatoes role players who never really establishes himself as the kind of player scouts thought he might be going back to last year.
Reece Scarlett, D- This raw, but very intriguing rear guard is your classic stealth prospect right now. He played for Swift Current, not a choice destination for scouts these days, so he could very well be much higher on certain team lists of those who saw him more than others, because one scout told us that Scarlett has to grow on you a bit. He's extremely lean, and doesn't have great height either, but he has long limbs which contributes to a fluid stride and a nice wingspan. He didn't get much production for the Broncos (6-18-24 in 72 games) but he didn't have a lot of help up front, either. You can't read too much into the stats with him because much of what makes him an interesting prospect is found in his hockey sense and decision-making. If he gets stronger, he has the potential to hit a rapid developmental stride and become one of those late-bloomer types that has everyone wondering how he slipped down to where it was he's likely to get drafted.
Daniel Catenacci, F- Small, ultra-skilled forward is still learning how to better use his teammates, but he's going to be one of the most dangerous scoring players in the entire tourney. Extremely fast and quick, he can handle the puck at speed and goes fearlessly to the net. His 45 assists were fifth-best in the OHL among 2011 draft prospects, but when you analyze his game, he's capable of doing so much more to create for his linemates and be a little more unselfish with the puck.
Austen Brassard, F- Disappointing year for the Belleville prospect who looked so good for the Bulls after being acquired from the stacked Windsor Spitfires at the 2010 OHL trade deadline. Power forward is a good skater with a powerful stride and some underrated quickness. He's got a big, heavy shot and is one of those guys who may bring a big payoff in time because all the physical tools are there. Some scouts question his overall feeling for the game and sense of urgency at times, but these are things to watch, and he'll likely get called sooner rather than later because of his size, skill level and upside.
Brent Andrews, F- 6-1, 197-pound winger is a grinder who won't get you much in the scoring department, but goes up and down the wing, works hard and is a responsible player in all zones. He played on one of the weaker QMJHL clubs in Halifax and isn't going to wow anyone with his skill set, but is an intelligent and disciplined player. He scored 12 goals and 29 points in 67 games for the Mooseheads this season.
Colin Smith, F- Small, skilled forward for Kamloops tallied 21 goals and 50 points this year on the non-playoff Blazers. He is a quick, darting player who hits holes in defenses and has a knack for the net. He tends to get physically overpowered because of his lack of size and strength, but he brings good depth and energy for Team Canada, albeit as a more unheralded player not seen as much of an NHL draft prospect by at least one NHL scout who covers the west we spoke to.
Alan Quine, C- One of the 2011 draft's "what the hell happened to?" guys this season: average sized, but excellent skater who possesses the offensive hockey sense and hands to be a high-flying scorer. Very soft hands and on paper is one of the most talented of any 2011 draft prospect coming out of the OHL, but got off to a poor start with Kingston and was then traded to Peterborough. Not much for the defense side of things, but if you're looking for a kid who can set 'em up with the best of them, Quine is certainly right there. Like most guys his size and body type, he lacks strength and has a lot of work to do in that area. Does not play much of a physical game, but has some of the best natural offensive upside of any forward on the team. A disappointment of a draft season, yes, but don't count this guy out just yet.
Nick Cousins, C- Tiny at 5-9, 155-pounds, this kid can absolutely fly and is one of the more underrated scorers to come out of the OHL this season. With Cousins, it's easy to see him get lost in the shuffle a bit with so many solid OHL draft prospects coming out in 2011, so he could do a lot to gain some attention for himself at this tournament. Great wheels, hands and sense- works hard and had as solid as season for a non-playoff club as you can have. Underrated. Beyond the size, the scouts don't have a bad word for this kid.
Seth Griffith, F- Give FOB (friend of blog) Dominic Tiano credit (and he has his own very nice OHL blog you should visit) for turning us onto Griffith, but the diminutive but tenacious scorer for London last summer. Speed and hockey skills aside, what really earns Griffith high marks with scouts is how well he performed and produced *after* a lot of veteran players were traded away from London in December and early January. He took full advantage of the ice time and delivered, scoring 22 goals and 62 points in 68 games, but showing some real potential because a good portion of his production came against good teams and were meaningful goals/points. In the playoffs, he added three goals and seven points in six games, with the last two games getting blanked by Owen Sound.
Mark McNeill, C- This bull of a center is one of the draft's meteoric risers. We talked to his former Prince Albert teammate Ryan Button, who is in Providence of the AHL right now after being traded to Seattle at mid-season, and Button raved about McNeill's physical maturity (6-2, 210 and capable of getting even stronger sources say), pure strength and skill package. McNeill scored 32 goals and 81 points for the lowest-seeded team to make the WHL playoffs (and went out in the opening round against Saskatoon), and McNeill then had an excellent postseason as well, despite being the focus of the Blades' checking attention. He's a powerful skater who goes to the net, fights off checks and has the vision, hands and stick to be a legitimate scorer at the next level. He will undoubtedly be one of the focal points of scouting efforts across the board in Germany.
Mark Scheifele, C- Big pivot is versatile to play wing, too. Good skater, but lacks top geat and breakaway speed, but agile and powerful. Tough to knock off stride when he gets going. A good puckhandler and playmaker, Scheifele has been steadily rising all year after a 22-goal, 75-point season for the non-playoff Colts. One scout we talked to wasn't impressed with the 6-3, 180-pounder early in the year, but moved off of that opinion and acknowledged that he has upside and is a pretty safe pick to develop into a solid NHL player in time.
Travis Ewanyk, F- Raw, but big-hitting power forward is rising on draft lists despite his modest production on the Edmonton Oil Kings. Potential high payoff in time because he skates well and has a nice shot. A nice open-ice hitter who relishes contact and will be even nastier when he adds mass to his 6-1, 184-pound frame. Posted 16 goals and 27 points, but added 126 penalty minutes as a hard-nosed, intimidating presence you win tough games with. His production is poised to make a big jump next season and potentially beyond. Definitely a player to watch.
This post will analyze the 2011-eligible players *only*. We'll get to the 2012 draft prospects in a later post.
At first look, this Canada team will avoid the poor performance of the 2010 entry a year ago. It has some balance between skill and power, finesse and brute force. There is an interesting dynamic on defense, where the majority of the players at that position are 2012-eligible players (4-3), whereas at forward, the roster leans heavily to 2011 (11-2).
How it will work out this month remains to be seen, but at face value, the team has the talent and versatility to win gold in Germany. A lot of it is going to come down to the goaltending, but this squad has to be seen as a contender.
Andrew D'Agostini, G- Small, unorthodox goalie was under siege for much of the year playing for the Peterborough Petes, and his numbers reflect that: 10-25-2 record, .882 save percentage, 4.35 GAA. He's not a butterfly-style goalie and to be honest, at his size, the current accepted netminder style is not a good fit. He tends to rely on his quickness, positioning and never-say-die attitude to get things done. Unfortunately, his size limits him, and he wasn't able to overcome Peterborough's talent issues this season. He'll backup Malcolm Subban (Montreal defenseman P.K. Subban's brother), but may be on the team because of his mental makeup and ability to play under extreme pressure, which is what this kind of tournament is. If Subban falters, D'Agostini could enjoy success given the talent level of the team in front of him because he's used to seeing a ton of rubber and having to deal with playing from behind a lot. He's seen it all before.
Ryan Murphy, D- We won't break down his talent here. Just go to the myriad posts this blog has done in the past, including this week's "case for" entry to see what the small but dynamic Murphy brings to the table. His presence on the U18 squad is a validation of the snub he got from Al Murray over the summer, when Murphy was not selected for the gold medal-winning team that traveled to Slovakia for the Ivan Hlinka tourney. With 26 goals and 79 points in just his second OHL season, this kid is the real deal and will give Canada a legitimate offensive threat every time his skates touch the ice. He could make or break a potential top-five selection in the 2011 draft with his performance this month, and if his performance to date is any indication, we believe he'll raise his stock when the games are in the books.
Scott Harrington, D- If Murphy raised his stock this season and and answered a lot of questions about his NHL upside, Harrington's season had the opposite effect in many scouting circles. With good size and skating ability, Harrington was projected as a player who was a solid defensive presence, but who had some offensive potential as well. Unfortunately, that element of his game did not come in what was a pretty tough year for the London Knights. The defense isn't so much an issue for Harrington with the scouts as it was his indecision and attempt to bring the offense, only to be met with a lack of success. He has the attributes to be a solid NHL defender in time, but he took a step back in his development with his six-goals and 22 points. He's rock solid defensively, using his strength to keep the front of his net clear and an active stick to limit time and space and take away shooting lanes. He can make the basic breakout, but isn't much of a puck mover. He keeps things simple, and as long as he doesn't try and do too much, he's fine. Harrington could end up being a real value pick for an NHL team if he drops, but he could also just be one of those meat-and-potatoes role players who never really establishes himself as the kind of player scouts thought he might be going back to last year.
Reece Scarlett, D- This raw, but very intriguing rear guard is your classic stealth prospect right now. He played for Swift Current, not a choice destination for scouts these days, so he could very well be much higher on certain team lists of those who saw him more than others, because one scout told us that Scarlett has to grow on you a bit. He's extremely lean, and doesn't have great height either, but he has long limbs which contributes to a fluid stride and a nice wingspan. He didn't get much production for the Broncos (6-18-24 in 72 games) but he didn't have a lot of help up front, either. You can't read too much into the stats with him because much of what makes him an interesting prospect is found in his hockey sense and decision-making. If he gets stronger, he has the potential to hit a rapid developmental stride and become one of those late-bloomer types that has everyone wondering how he slipped down to where it was he's likely to get drafted.
Daniel Catenacci, F- Small, ultra-skilled forward is still learning how to better use his teammates, but he's going to be one of the most dangerous scoring players in the entire tourney. Extremely fast and quick, he can handle the puck at speed and goes fearlessly to the net. His 45 assists were fifth-best in the OHL among 2011 draft prospects, but when you analyze his game, he's capable of doing so much more to create for his linemates and be a little more unselfish with the puck.
Austen Brassard, F- Disappointing year for the Belleville prospect who looked so good for the Bulls after being acquired from the stacked Windsor Spitfires at the 2010 OHL trade deadline. Power forward is a good skater with a powerful stride and some underrated quickness. He's got a big, heavy shot and is one of those guys who may bring a big payoff in time because all the physical tools are there. Some scouts question his overall feeling for the game and sense of urgency at times, but these are things to watch, and he'll likely get called sooner rather than later because of his size, skill level and upside.
Brent Andrews, F- 6-1, 197-pound winger is a grinder who won't get you much in the scoring department, but goes up and down the wing, works hard and is a responsible player in all zones. He played on one of the weaker QMJHL clubs in Halifax and isn't going to wow anyone with his skill set, but is an intelligent and disciplined player. He scored 12 goals and 29 points in 67 games for the Mooseheads this season.
Colin Smith, F- Small, skilled forward for Kamloops tallied 21 goals and 50 points this year on the non-playoff Blazers. He is a quick, darting player who hits holes in defenses and has a knack for the net. He tends to get physically overpowered because of his lack of size and strength, but he brings good depth and energy for Team Canada, albeit as a more unheralded player not seen as much of an NHL draft prospect by at least one NHL scout who covers the west we spoke to.
Alan Quine, C- One of the 2011 draft's "what the hell happened to?" guys this season: average sized, but excellent skater who possesses the offensive hockey sense and hands to be a high-flying scorer. Very soft hands and on paper is one of the most talented of any 2011 draft prospect coming out of the OHL, but got off to a poor start with Kingston and was then traded to Peterborough. Not much for the defense side of things, but if you're looking for a kid who can set 'em up with the best of them, Quine is certainly right there. Like most guys his size and body type, he lacks strength and has a lot of work to do in that area. Does not play much of a physical game, but has some of the best natural offensive upside of any forward on the team. A disappointment of a draft season, yes, but don't count this guy out just yet.
Nick Cousins, C- Tiny at 5-9, 155-pounds, this kid can absolutely fly and is one of the more underrated scorers to come out of the OHL this season. With Cousins, it's easy to see him get lost in the shuffle a bit with so many solid OHL draft prospects coming out in 2011, so he could do a lot to gain some attention for himself at this tournament. Great wheels, hands and sense- works hard and had as solid as season for a non-playoff club as you can have. Underrated. Beyond the size, the scouts don't have a bad word for this kid.
Seth Griffith, F- Give FOB (friend of blog) Dominic Tiano credit (and he has his own very nice OHL blog you should visit) for turning us onto Griffith, but the diminutive but tenacious scorer for London last summer. Speed and hockey skills aside, what really earns Griffith high marks with scouts is how well he performed and produced *after* a lot of veteran players were traded away from London in December and early January. He took full advantage of the ice time and delivered, scoring 22 goals and 62 points in 68 games, but showing some real potential because a good portion of his production came against good teams and were meaningful goals/points. In the playoffs, he added three goals and seven points in six games, with the last two games getting blanked by Owen Sound.
Mark McNeill, C- This bull of a center is one of the draft's meteoric risers. We talked to his former Prince Albert teammate Ryan Button, who is in Providence of the AHL right now after being traded to Seattle at mid-season, and Button raved about McNeill's physical maturity (6-2, 210 and capable of getting even stronger sources say), pure strength and skill package. McNeill scored 32 goals and 81 points for the lowest-seeded team to make the WHL playoffs (and went out in the opening round against Saskatoon), and McNeill then had an excellent postseason as well, despite being the focus of the Blades' checking attention. He's a powerful skater who goes to the net, fights off checks and has the vision, hands and stick to be a legitimate scorer at the next level. He will undoubtedly be one of the focal points of scouting efforts across the board in Germany.
Mark Scheifele, C- Big pivot is versatile to play wing, too. Good skater, but lacks top geat and breakaway speed, but agile and powerful. Tough to knock off stride when he gets going. A good puckhandler and playmaker, Scheifele has been steadily rising all year after a 22-goal, 75-point season for the non-playoff Colts. One scout we talked to wasn't impressed with the 6-3, 180-pounder early in the year, but moved off of that opinion and acknowledged that he has upside and is a pretty safe pick to develop into a solid NHL player in time.
Travis Ewanyk, F- Raw, but big-hitting power forward is rising on draft lists despite his modest production on the Edmonton Oil Kings. Potential high payoff in time because he skates well and has a nice shot. A nice open-ice hitter who relishes contact and will be even nastier when he adds mass to his 6-1, 184-pound frame. Posted 16 goals and 27 points, but added 126 penalty minutes as a hard-nosed, intimidating presence you win tough games with. His production is poised to make a big jump next season and potentially beyond. Definitely a player to watch.
Coming soon: Team Canada Under-18 squad analysis
We'll have a quick look at Team Canada's entry for this month's Under-18 championship entry later this evening.
Initial impressions are: this is quite a group. They are solid from top-to-bottom and the elimination of Everett and Kitchener from the first round of the CHL playoffs means they'll get two elite defensemen in Ryan Murray (2012) and Ryan Murphy, who, unless you're been living under a rock, you know quite well already.
Up front, they'll have big horse Mark McNeill, along with a very nice mix of power forwards with upside (Austen Brassard, Brett Ritchie, Mark Scheifele, Travis Ewanyk) and smaller, highly skilled types like Daniel Catenacci, Alan Quine, Nick Cousins and Seth Griffith- all from the OHL.
Malcolm Subban (2012) and Andrew D'Agostini are two goalies who won't come with as much fanfare as guys like John Gibson (USA) or Samu Perhonen (Finland) but are more than capable of carrying the load for Canada given the balance of the rest of the roster.
Come back this evening for more detailed breakdowns of the players and analysis.
Initial impressions are: this is quite a group. They are solid from top-to-bottom and the elimination of Everett and Kitchener from the first round of the CHL playoffs means they'll get two elite defensemen in Ryan Murray (2012) and Ryan Murphy, who, unless you're been living under a rock, you know quite well already.
Up front, they'll have big horse Mark McNeill, along with a very nice mix of power forwards with upside (Austen Brassard, Brett Ritchie, Mark Scheifele, Travis Ewanyk) and smaller, highly skilled types like Daniel Catenacci, Alan Quine, Nick Cousins and Seth Griffith- all from the OHL.
Malcolm Subban (2012) and Andrew D'Agostini are two goalies who won't come with as much fanfare as guys like John Gibson (USA) or Samu Perhonen (Finland) but are more than capable of carrying the load for Canada given the balance of the rest of the roster.
Come back this evening for more detailed breakdowns of the players and analysis.
Monday, March 28, 2011
The next tier of draft options: CHL
This post is a follow-on to the regular season recap we did last week on the QMJHL, WHL and OHL in which we posted some of the players who are, in our view (bolstered by the opinions of NHL and independent scouting sources we used) the best options from those leagues in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
However, what about the players who were close, but just missed the cut? We'll profile some of those guys, many of whom will be second- and third-round picks in June here.
In the coming days, we'll profile more interesting players and sleepers from some of the other ranks like Europe, the USHL and CJHL for you.
We'll also get to some players who, for whatever reason, have fallen off during the 2010-11 season and for that reason, aren't likely to be first-round or perhaps even second-round draft picks.
You'll note that the predominance of OHL players on this particular list demonstrates the superior depth in that league's draft class.
Rickard Rakell, RW/C Plymouth (OHL)- Skilled and agitating Swedish winger took a page from the Gabriel Landeskog book and came over to North America this season. He's got above average size (6-1, 190), and in scouts' eyes is a good skater with quickness, speed and agility in his favor. He's a solid puckhandler and put up decent numbers for the Whalers in his first OHL campaign, scoring 19 goals and 43 points in 49 games. He went out of the lineup with a lower body injury in mid-February and has not yet played in the first round of his team's playoff series against Kitchener. His shot/release is not a strong suit, and Rakell's ultimate offensive upside at the NHL level could be what prevents him from being a first-round draft pick. However, he's a gritty, gutsy competitor who played well at the WJC as a Landeskog-lite when the Kitchener captain went down early.
Stefan Noesen, LW Plymouth (OHL)- The native of Plano, a suburb of Dallas, Texas had a breakthrough season in his second year at this level, shattering his previous season's scoring total of eight total points with a 34-43-77 stats line in 68 games. A decent skater who doesn't possess great acceleration or agility but is good in a straight line and is a powerful player who will drive to the net. Despite being a winger, took faceoffs this season during certain situations and proved himself to be a versatile and reliable player for coach Mike Vellucci. What's more, his improved intensity and willingness to do the little things made him one of Plymouth's most consistent players all season. Scouts don't see Noesen as a naturally instinctive player who sees the ice well and can create offense for himself. His scoring upside at the highest level is a bit of a question, but he has the look of a guy who can get it done as a grinder in the NHL level at least.
Shane Prince, LW Ottawa (OHL)- Undersized playmaking winger is a B2011DW favorite for his speed, skills and competitiveness. Shows a nice initial burst and not only has a top gear, but is also shifty and quick- able to shake defenders when he has time and space to work with. Soft hands and terrific vision complimented his linemates Tyler Toffoli and Ryan Martindale nicely. Finished the season with 25 goals and 88 points in 59 games with the 67's but battled a shoulder injury and then got blasted by Niagara defenseman Tim Billingsley, which kept him out for a few more contests late in the season (while Billingsley received a 10-game ban from the OHL). On the downside, Prince is not much of a physical player and because of the durability issues, his stock could take a hit.
Daniel Catenacci, C/LW Saulte Ste. Marie (OHL)- Another small, but super-skilled player who was previously the top pick in the 2009 OHL draft. This kid has tremendous wheels and hands- he can do pretty much anything he wants with the puck on his stick and has been a highly impressive scoring presence this season on a poor Greyhounds teamm scoring 26 goals and 71 points in 67 games. He also plays a feisty, edgy game, having racked up 117 minutes in penalties. Scouts are a little concerned with Catenacci's sense and ability to use his teammates effectively, as he tends to be a one-man show at times and fails to utilize the other members of his team properly. With his wheels and high-end puck skills and shot, he's going to be an intriguing option for any NHL team in the second round, possibly even late first if they believe in his upside enough, but he carries some risk as a boom-or-bust prospect.
Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)- Yet another small, but highly skilled player for the draft. McColgan came into the season as one of the 2011 class's bigger, more recognizable names coming out of the WHL. After a disastrous start, McColgan turned it on down the stretch, finishing as a point-per-game player with 21 goals and 66 points in 67 games. He's an excellent skater with the ability to back defenses up with his speed and hands. The biggest thing with him has been the fact that his offense has not taken the anticipated jump from last season, and when you're dealing with undersized players, they must demonstrate enough offensive upside to justify the risks that come with taking them high. Unfortunately, his size is a major issue with scouts, who don't see that he has any more room to grow into a 5-10, 170-pound frame.
"My concern is that he's as big as he's going to be," said one NHL scout when asked about McColgan. "That means he's already way behind the power curve and if he isn't going to get much stronger, then it's an issue."
Stuart Percy, D Mississauga (OHL)- If ever there was a textbook example of a player who goes out and brings a consistency without fanfare and excitement, it is this defenseman. Efficiency is the name of the game with Percy; he sees the ice well and makes rapid yet calculated decisions. He had a strong performance in the CHL Top Prospects Game as a player who just went out and got the job done effectively in terms of his positioning and decision-making. One NHL scout told B2011DW back in the summer after seeing Percy skate at Team Canada evaluation camp for the Ivan Hlinka tourney that he was fairly mobile, poised and effective with making crisp breakout passes. Every team needs players like Percy, who can perform with minimal mistakes. He isn't going to be a No. 1 or 2 in the NHL, but he could develop into a No. 3 and anchor for a middle pairing some day. If not, he's a quality depth guy that good clubs win with, and as a member of Memorial Cup tournament host Mississauga, scouts will get an extended look at him this spring.
Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)- Big power forward prospect didn't take the steps NHL scouts were hoping for, but is an intriguing project player because he does have a good deal of potential given his impressive size and good stick. He battled a slow start and a bout of mononucleosis in January, which forced him through a middle stretch of being less than 100 percent. Like many big men, his first step is sluggish and he doesn't have quick turning ability or lateral agility in abundance. Once he gets going, his speed is fine enough, and with his size, he can be a load to contain. Ritchie is pretty strong on his skates, and like most power forwards, is a horse along the wall and down low. He protects the puck well and bulls his way to the net when he's on his game. When not firing on all cylinders, Ritchie is out on the perimeter and not using his natural size and strength to grind it out and wear down defenses. The 6-3, 200-pounder scored 21 goals and 41 points in 49 games with the Sting this season. He's not a huge thumper, but does use his body effectively enough to create some space for himself and his linemates. There's a lot of raw untapped potential with Ritchie and our guess is that NHL clubs are hoping he slides in the draft to where he can be a steal.
Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste Marie (OHL)- Undersized pivot makes his long overdue B2011DW debut on this post after posting 29 goals and 68 points in 68 games with the woeful Greyhounds this season. He's listed at 5-11 and 170, but is smaller than that and doesn't have a lot of room to get much bigger if he doesn't hit a late growth spurt. He has nice wheels, quick hands and very good offensive hockey sense. Even better, his defensive awareness and overall game improved from his first season in the OHL. Cousins is one of these guys you aren't hearing a great deal about, but could end up being a draft day bargain the way Greg McKegg worked out last June, falling into the third round where Toronto snatched the Erie star. If Cousins were a couple of inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier, he'd be one of the more talked about OHL guys in the 2011 class.
Vince Trocheck, C Saginaw (OHL)- Gritty, tenacious Pennsylvania center doesn't have ideal size or speed, but his quick stick, accurate shot and hockey sense all combine to make him an interesting if polarizing prospect among scouts who seem to constantly revise their opinions on him. He finished the season with 26 goals and 62 points in 66 games with the Spirit, which was a bit disappointing given his start and what expectations were for him. Even without the big numbers, he's a hustling, high-energy player who gives his all. It's hard to count guys like that out. An extended and productive postseason for Trocheck could put him solidly in the draft's 2nd round.
Tobias Rieder, RW Kitchener (OHL)- After a blazing start, the skilled German's production tailed off after the WJC and with his lack of size, he's a bit of a wildcard right now in terms of where he'll go in the draft. He finished the year with 23 goals and 49 points in 65 games for the Rangers. We saw him at the WJC and he struggled to handle the speed, pace and power of the older players on one of the tourney's weak sisters. He did score a highlight reel breakaway goal, so the puck skills and finishing ability are there in flashes. At 5-10, 165 however, he reportedly had trouble keeping weight on during the season and simply doesn't have the functional strength to run with the big dogs; he's going to require a lot of time and patience.
Anton Zlobin, LW Shawinigan (QMJHL)- Highly skilled Russian didn't get a ton of press playing for the Cataractes, but showed off some interesting long-term potential as a goal scorer. Superb hands, shot and offensive instincts. A human highlight reel, and when he gets it revved up with some open ice to work with, watch out. Finished the season with 23 goals and 45 points in 59 games. He took some adjustment time and also had some injury issues- he's very average sized at about 6-0, 170 pounds. But as far as talent and upside go, he's flying under the radar in the Quebec League class.
Todd Fiddler, LW Prince Albert (WHL)- Pretty averaged sized at just over 6-feet, but plays a very physical aggressive style and has stepped up his game in the WHL playoffs for the Raiders, scoring a pair of goals in one game to even the series against top-seeded Saskatoon (he has 3 in four games). His skating, mainly heavy boots, lack of quick acceleration and separation is what has prevented him from being mentioned in a lot of draft talk which has especially been dominated in PA by Mark McNeill, but Fiddler has some real upside if he can pick up a step. He has a rocket shot and a nice release, accounting for 23 goals this season. He's one of these guys whose production will probably take off because he has the hands and awareness to be a nice offensive player. Given his lack of size and skating, he's flying under the radar, but if scouts are convinced that he can get quicker/faster, then don't be surprised to see him go off the board as early as the first half of the 3rd round. Yes, we know that's pretty high, but if he can keep putting the puck in the net during the playoffs against top competition, that will go a long way with scouts, who have been all over the Blades-Raiders because of McNeill and Duncan Siemens, but may come away saying, "You know, that Fiddler kid is pretty freaking nice as well."
However, what about the players who were close, but just missed the cut? We'll profile some of those guys, many of whom will be second- and third-round picks in June here.
In the coming days, we'll profile more interesting players and sleepers from some of the other ranks like Europe, the USHL and CJHL for you.
We'll also get to some players who, for whatever reason, have fallen off during the 2010-11 season and for that reason, aren't likely to be first-round or perhaps even second-round draft picks.
You'll note that the predominance of OHL players on this particular list demonstrates the superior depth in that league's draft class.
Rickard Rakell, RW/C Plymouth (OHL)- Skilled and agitating Swedish winger took a page from the Gabriel Landeskog book and came over to North America this season. He's got above average size (6-1, 190), and in scouts' eyes is a good skater with quickness, speed and agility in his favor. He's a solid puckhandler and put up decent numbers for the Whalers in his first OHL campaign, scoring 19 goals and 43 points in 49 games. He went out of the lineup with a lower body injury in mid-February and has not yet played in the first round of his team's playoff series against Kitchener. His shot/release is not a strong suit, and Rakell's ultimate offensive upside at the NHL level could be what prevents him from being a first-round draft pick. However, he's a gritty, gutsy competitor who played well at the WJC as a Landeskog-lite when the Kitchener captain went down early.
Stefan Noesen, LW Plymouth (OHL)- The native of Plano, a suburb of Dallas, Texas had a breakthrough season in his second year at this level, shattering his previous season's scoring total of eight total points with a 34-43-77 stats line in 68 games. A decent skater who doesn't possess great acceleration or agility but is good in a straight line and is a powerful player who will drive to the net. Despite being a winger, took faceoffs this season during certain situations and proved himself to be a versatile and reliable player for coach Mike Vellucci. What's more, his improved intensity and willingness to do the little things made him one of Plymouth's most consistent players all season. Scouts don't see Noesen as a naturally instinctive player who sees the ice well and can create offense for himself. His scoring upside at the highest level is a bit of a question, but he has the look of a guy who can get it done as a grinder in the NHL level at least.
Shane Prince, LW Ottawa (OHL)- Undersized playmaking winger is a B2011DW favorite for his speed, skills and competitiveness. Shows a nice initial burst and not only has a top gear, but is also shifty and quick- able to shake defenders when he has time and space to work with. Soft hands and terrific vision complimented his linemates Tyler Toffoli and Ryan Martindale nicely. Finished the season with 25 goals and 88 points in 59 games with the 67's but battled a shoulder injury and then got blasted by Niagara defenseman Tim Billingsley, which kept him out for a few more contests late in the season (while Billingsley received a 10-game ban from the OHL). On the downside, Prince is not much of a physical player and because of the durability issues, his stock could take a hit.
Daniel Catenacci, C/LW Saulte Ste. Marie (OHL)- Another small, but super-skilled player who was previously the top pick in the 2009 OHL draft. This kid has tremendous wheels and hands- he can do pretty much anything he wants with the puck on his stick and has been a highly impressive scoring presence this season on a poor Greyhounds teamm scoring 26 goals and 71 points in 67 games. He also plays a feisty, edgy game, having racked up 117 minutes in penalties. Scouts are a little concerned with Catenacci's sense and ability to use his teammates effectively, as he tends to be a one-man show at times and fails to utilize the other members of his team properly. With his wheels and high-end puck skills and shot, he's going to be an intriguing option for any NHL team in the second round, possibly even late first if they believe in his upside enough, but he carries some risk as a boom-or-bust prospect.
Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)- Yet another small, but highly skilled player for the draft. McColgan came into the season as one of the 2011 class's bigger, more recognizable names coming out of the WHL. After a disastrous start, McColgan turned it on down the stretch, finishing as a point-per-game player with 21 goals and 66 points in 67 games. He's an excellent skater with the ability to back defenses up with his speed and hands. The biggest thing with him has been the fact that his offense has not taken the anticipated jump from last season, and when you're dealing with undersized players, they must demonstrate enough offensive upside to justify the risks that come with taking them high. Unfortunately, his size is a major issue with scouts, who don't see that he has any more room to grow into a 5-10, 170-pound frame.
"My concern is that he's as big as he's going to be," said one NHL scout when asked about McColgan. "That means he's already way behind the power curve and if he isn't going to get much stronger, then it's an issue."
Stuart Percy, D Mississauga (OHL)- If ever there was a textbook example of a player who goes out and brings a consistency without fanfare and excitement, it is this defenseman. Efficiency is the name of the game with Percy; he sees the ice well and makes rapid yet calculated decisions. He had a strong performance in the CHL Top Prospects Game as a player who just went out and got the job done effectively in terms of his positioning and decision-making. One NHL scout told B2011DW back in the summer after seeing Percy skate at Team Canada evaluation camp for the Ivan Hlinka tourney that he was fairly mobile, poised and effective with making crisp breakout passes. Every team needs players like Percy, who can perform with minimal mistakes. He isn't going to be a No. 1 or 2 in the NHL, but he could develop into a No. 3 and anchor for a middle pairing some day. If not, he's a quality depth guy that good clubs win with, and as a member of Memorial Cup tournament host Mississauga, scouts will get an extended look at him this spring.
Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)- Big power forward prospect didn't take the steps NHL scouts were hoping for, but is an intriguing project player because he does have a good deal of potential given his impressive size and good stick. He battled a slow start and a bout of mononucleosis in January, which forced him through a middle stretch of being less than 100 percent. Like many big men, his first step is sluggish and he doesn't have quick turning ability or lateral agility in abundance. Once he gets going, his speed is fine enough, and with his size, he can be a load to contain. Ritchie is pretty strong on his skates, and like most power forwards, is a horse along the wall and down low. He protects the puck well and bulls his way to the net when he's on his game. When not firing on all cylinders, Ritchie is out on the perimeter and not using his natural size and strength to grind it out and wear down defenses. The 6-3, 200-pounder scored 21 goals and 41 points in 49 games with the Sting this season. He's not a huge thumper, but does use his body effectively enough to create some space for himself and his linemates. There's a lot of raw untapped potential with Ritchie and our guess is that NHL clubs are hoping he slides in the draft to where he can be a steal.
Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste Marie (OHL)- Undersized pivot makes his long overdue B2011DW debut on this post after posting 29 goals and 68 points in 68 games with the woeful Greyhounds this season. He's listed at 5-11 and 170, but is smaller than that and doesn't have a lot of room to get much bigger if he doesn't hit a late growth spurt. He has nice wheels, quick hands and very good offensive hockey sense. Even better, his defensive awareness and overall game improved from his first season in the OHL. Cousins is one of these guys you aren't hearing a great deal about, but could end up being a draft day bargain the way Greg McKegg worked out last June, falling into the third round where Toronto snatched the Erie star. If Cousins were a couple of inches taller and about 15 pounds heavier, he'd be one of the more talked about OHL guys in the 2011 class.
Vince Trocheck, C Saginaw (OHL)- Gritty, tenacious Pennsylvania center doesn't have ideal size or speed, but his quick stick, accurate shot and hockey sense all combine to make him an interesting if polarizing prospect among scouts who seem to constantly revise their opinions on him. He finished the season with 26 goals and 62 points in 66 games with the Spirit, which was a bit disappointing given his start and what expectations were for him. Even without the big numbers, he's a hustling, high-energy player who gives his all. It's hard to count guys like that out. An extended and productive postseason for Trocheck could put him solidly in the draft's 2nd round.
Tobias Rieder, RW Kitchener (OHL)- After a blazing start, the skilled German's production tailed off after the WJC and with his lack of size, he's a bit of a wildcard right now in terms of where he'll go in the draft. He finished the year with 23 goals and 49 points in 65 games for the Rangers. We saw him at the WJC and he struggled to handle the speed, pace and power of the older players on one of the tourney's weak sisters. He did score a highlight reel breakaway goal, so the puck skills and finishing ability are there in flashes. At 5-10, 165 however, he reportedly had trouble keeping weight on during the season and simply doesn't have the functional strength to run with the big dogs; he's going to require a lot of time and patience.
Anton Zlobin, LW Shawinigan (QMJHL)- Highly skilled Russian didn't get a ton of press playing for the Cataractes, but showed off some interesting long-term potential as a goal scorer. Superb hands, shot and offensive instincts. A human highlight reel, and when he gets it revved up with some open ice to work with, watch out. Finished the season with 23 goals and 45 points in 59 games. He took some adjustment time and also had some injury issues- he's very average sized at about 6-0, 170 pounds. But as far as talent and upside go, he's flying under the radar in the Quebec League class.
Todd Fiddler, LW Prince Albert (WHL)- Pretty averaged sized at just over 6-feet, but plays a very physical aggressive style and has stepped up his game in the WHL playoffs for the Raiders, scoring a pair of goals in one game to even the series against top-seeded Saskatoon (he has 3 in four games). His skating, mainly heavy boots, lack of quick acceleration and separation is what has prevented him from being mentioned in a lot of draft talk which has especially been dominated in PA by Mark McNeill, but Fiddler has some real upside if he can pick up a step. He has a rocket shot and a nice release, accounting for 23 goals this season. He's one of these guys whose production will probably take off because he has the hands and awareness to be a nice offensive player. Given his lack of size and skating, he's flying under the radar, but if scouts are convinced that he can get quicker/faster, then don't be surprised to see him go off the board as early as the first half of the 3rd round. Yes, we know that's pretty high, but if he can keep putting the puck in the net during the playoffs against top competition, that will go a long way with scouts, who have been all over the Blades-Raiders because of McNeill and Duncan Siemens, but may come away saying, "You know, that Fiddler kid is pretty freaking nice as well."
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Here come the little guys- 2011 edition (Part 1)
Last season, we did a post highlighting some of the key players under 6-feet tall available in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft. One of them was Ryan Spooner, who as most Bruins fans know, has developed into one of the more popular prospects in Boston's system after the team took him 45th overall.
In keeping with the spirit of championing the skilled small guy, here is the list of players who are worth following for the 2011 draft. It is not a comprehensive list, but more of a swag and attempt to capture some of the better little guys who have the skills and attitude to make themselves into players at the highest level. Those are the players that NHL clubs are willing to spend draft picks on, even if some of them tend to go later than their talent level/skills package would otherwise dictate.
We're going to break this up into several posts so we don't give the short-shrift to it. And yes, we know that we owe another goaltender review in the near future too, so consider this a downpayment.
Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener (OHL) 5-10, 176- The best of this year's small men, this dynamic defender has been a hot topic among Bruins fans who care enough about the draft to pay attention throughout the year. We saw him live in January and were blown away by his wheels and puckhandling ability. There is absolutely no denying that this kid has the requisite skill level to be an NHL player one day, and his defensive positioning is fine. The concerns that come from NHL scouts about Murphy is whether he will physically be able to match up against the big, powerful forwards he's sure to go up against and whether he'll be a regular rotation 'D' or more of a specialist. His coach, Steve Spott, needs absolutely no convincing that it will be the former for Murphy, so we think he'll be a top-10 pick come June. He's so skilled and has high character/is a good teammate. The only thing working against him is his 5-10 frame (listed at 5-11, but he's shorter- trust us) and lack of strength. Everything else about him is absolutely NHL caliber, and if you talk about players with upside in this draft, Murphy stands out as one of the best at any position.
Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) 5-10, 172- This uber-skilled Russian left the Mother Land for North America and the OHL this season and it is going to work in his favor at the draft. Had he remained overseas, he would have fallen down in the draft simply because of signability concerns and a lack of viewing, but being in the spotlight means teams have a solid read. Like many smallish Russians, he's a tremendous skater who can burn defenders with his jets or use his slippery lateral agility to pull guys out of position as he blows by them. His stickhandling is outstanding, and with his nose for the net, he can bury the puck from just about anywhere on the ice. His 34 goals and 70 points is third on the Spitfires in scoring behind Ryan Ellis and Zack Kassian, and he made a seamless transition from Europe to North America. His defense is suspect and there isn't much of a physical element to this guy, but in terms of pure offensive skills and ability to score, he's right up there with the best.
Shane Prince, LW Ottawa (OHL) 5-10, 185- One of B2011DW's favorite players from this class, Prince is the third of a trifecta of small, but very offensively gifted players in the OHL. He was at one point leading the OHL in scoring until a shoulder injury in January forced him out of the lineup several different times, derailing his efforts. Through 57 games, he has 25 goals, 63 assists and 88 points. He's shattered his previous season-best of 30 points last year, split between Kitchener and Ottawa. He's blazing fast with terrific offensive instincts and soft hands. A playmaking winger who is an underrated finisher, there is so much to like in this Rochester, NY-area (Spencerport to be exact) native's game. He isn't as highly rated in other sources, but we feel that Prince is an accomplished enough two-way player that he's worth spending a first-round pick on. He's another player with a great deal of upside and has everything going for him- good attitude, strong family with very good bloodlines (father played junior hockey, younger sister Olivia is an accomplished gymnast) and a very good work ethic. Like Spooner last year, if Prince slips into the second round, the team that gets him could have a steal on their hands.
Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL) 5-10, 183- Yet another highly skilled small player, his 81 points (30 goals) are tied with Ryan Johansen for the team lead in scoring. The Langenthal, Switzerland native is a finesse winger with excellent wheels and a killer shot. He's a dangerous offensive player that scouts really like despite his undersized frame and lack of strength. We weren't all that impressed with Bartschi at the WJC, where he looked much more like a perimeter player who didn't get himself greasy. That said, we've not seen him in the WHL, and he's obviously doing something right. We also talked to several NHL scouts about him in Buffalo, and B2011DW is in the minority when it comes to Bartschi: he's going to go higher than we would take him, and he's a good kid, so there isn't much you can go wrong with given his speed, quick stick and penchant for putting up points. So long as your team can live with his tendency to avoid contact and not drive to the net as much as he could, he's got a high ceiling.
Rocco Grimaldi, C U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-6, 161- Let it be said right now: B2011DW loves this guy, and we have for some time. He's the smallest of the legitimate draft prospects in class, but boy, can this kid ever play! He might have rockets attached to his skates given the way he flies all over the ice and his hands are just sublime. He takes the puck to the net and great things follow whenever he does. The passion and energy that he plays with is infectious, and you can't help but root for him. The inevitable comparisons to Brian Gionta are legitimate, and time and time again, we've seen small guys with elite skating and puck skills turn out to be fine NHL players. Put Grimaldi in this category as well. All he's done is score in bunches, and for such a small guy, his 11-12-23 line in 19 USHL games this season is simply outstanding. The size is obviously going to drop him, but we're honestly not sure how far, simply because he's such a game-breaker. Watch for him to tear it up for North Dakota immediately upon arriving in Grand Forks, and Grimaldi will be worth waiting for down the road for the NHL team who rolls the dice on him.
Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180- The 2009 OHL draft's top pick had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney in August and has taken off from there, more than doubling his production from a year ago with the Greyhounds and making himself into a legitimate top-60 selection in June. The son of Murphy's coach for the York-Simcoe Express (Maurice Catenacci) is another super-skilled waterbug of a player who has excellent speed, super balance on his edges and quick hands. He also plays with a real edge as evidenced by his 105 penalty minutes this season. His 26-42-68 stats line on a weak team is a pretty good accomplishment and you have to give the guy credit for overcoming the disappointment being associated with him as the OHL's top bantam pick by having a strong draft year to convince scouts of his worthiness as an NHL prospect.
Adam Clendening, D Boston University (HE) 5-11, 187- We won't say a great deal about upstate NY native and former U.S. NTDP standout given that you can read the in-depth scouting report we recently published on him right here. He grew up a Bruins fan despite being in the middle of Buffalo Sabres country because his dad was a lifelong Boston booster after getting to know old B's junior players from Niagara Falls like Derek Sanderson, Don Awrey and Bernie Parent to name a few. Clendening's lack of size and speed will work against him, but he has an excellent touch on the puck and is a very heady player.
Mike St. Croix, C Edmonton (WHL) 5-11, 163- This highly talented pivot was a polarizing player among scouts because while nobody doubted his high-end puck skills and offensive hockey sense, he began the season playing so indifferently in his own end. Reports out of the west say that he picked things up considerably a month in, and has quietly positioned himself to be a solid first-round pick with 26 goals and 72 points for the Oil Kings, second to Dylan Wruck (74 points) and even smaller skill player (5-8) for them (we'll address Wruck in Pt. 2 coming soon). B2011DW has been slow to come around on St. Croix because we heard he was such a "dog" (NHL scout's words) in the defensive zone. But, to the youngster's credit, he's not only continued scoring at an impressive clip, he's shown more diligence and a willingness to stick his nose in and play hard.
Phillip Danault, LW Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 165- The highly skilled forward works very hard for his chances and is a coach's dream. He's one of those guys who never stops moving his feet and creates chances because he outworks everyone else on the ice. He's put up some nice production with 21 goals, 63 points in 61 games this season and we're sure NHL teams like him because of his hustle and intelligence. That said, he's not very strong and is going to require a lot of time and patience to develop to the point that he can be an active contributor in the NHL. Another member of the 2011 gold medal Ivan Hlinka squad, he's a feel-good story for Victoriaville: his father is the team's PA announcer and young Phillip grew up bleeding the black and gold of les Tigres. Like Grimaldi, he's someone you pull for because he's good for hockey, but Danault is nowhere near as talented as the Californian.
Thats a wrap on part 1. We will return with capsules on Tobias Rieder, Shane McColgan, Matt Nieto, Colten St. Clair, Alan Quine and Victor Arvidsson among others.
In keeping with the spirit of championing the skilled small guy, here is the list of players who are worth following for the 2011 draft. It is not a comprehensive list, but more of a swag and attempt to capture some of the better little guys who have the skills and attitude to make themselves into players at the highest level. Those are the players that NHL clubs are willing to spend draft picks on, even if some of them tend to go later than their talent level/skills package would otherwise dictate.
We're going to break this up into several posts so we don't give the short-shrift to it. And yes, we know that we owe another goaltender review in the near future too, so consider this a downpayment.
Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener (OHL) 5-10, 176- The best of this year's small men, this dynamic defender has been a hot topic among Bruins fans who care enough about the draft to pay attention throughout the year. We saw him live in January and were blown away by his wheels and puckhandling ability. There is absolutely no denying that this kid has the requisite skill level to be an NHL player one day, and his defensive positioning is fine. The concerns that come from NHL scouts about Murphy is whether he will physically be able to match up against the big, powerful forwards he's sure to go up against and whether he'll be a regular rotation 'D' or more of a specialist. His coach, Steve Spott, needs absolutely no convincing that it will be the former for Murphy, so we think he'll be a top-10 pick come June. He's so skilled and has high character/is a good teammate. The only thing working against him is his 5-10 frame (listed at 5-11, but he's shorter- trust us) and lack of strength. Everything else about him is absolutely NHL caliber, and if you talk about players with upside in this draft, Murphy stands out as one of the best at any position.
Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) 5-10, 172- This uber-skilled Russian left the Mother Land for North America and the OHL this season and it is going to work in his favor at the draft. Had he remained overseas, he would have fallen down in the draft simply because of signability concerns and a lack of viewing, but being in the spotlight means teams have a solid read. Like many smallish Russians, he's a tremendous skater who can burn defenders with his jets or use his slippery lateral agility to pull guys out of position as he blows by them. His stickhandling is outstanding, and with his nose for the net, he can bury the puck from just about anywhere on the ice. His 34 goals and 70 points is third on the Spitfires in scoring behind Ryan Ellis and Zack Kassian, and he made a seamless transition from Europe to North America. His defense is suspect and there isn't much of a physical element to this guy, but in terms of pure offensive skills and ability to score, he's right up there with the best.
Shane Prince, LW Ottawa (OHL) 5-10, 185- One of B2011DW's favorite players from this class, Prince is the third of a trifecta of small, but very offensively gifted players in the OHL. He was at one point leading the OHL in scoring until a shoulder injury in January forced him out of the lineup several different times, derailing his efforts. Through 57 games, he has 25 goals, 63 assists and 88 points. He's shattered his previous season-best of 30 points last year, split between Kitchener and Ottawa. He's blazing fast with terrific offensive instincts and soft hands. A playmaking winger who is an underrated finisher, there is so much to like in this Rochester, NY-area (Spencerport to be exact) native's game. He isn't as highly rated in other sources, but we feel that Prince is an accomplished enough two-way player that he's worth spending a first-round pick on. He's another player with a great deal of upside and has everything going for him- good attitude, strong family with very good bloodlines (father played junior hockey, younger sister Olivia is an accomplished gymnast) and a very good work ethic. Like Spooner last year, if Prince slips into the second round, the team that gets him could have a steal on their hands.
Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL) 5-10, 183- Yet another highly skilled small player, his 81 points (30 goals) are tied with Ryan Johansen for the team lead in scoring. The Langenthal, Switzerland native is a finesse winger with excellent wheels and a killer shot. He's a dangerous offensive player that scouts really like despite his undersized frame and lack of strength. We weren't all that impressed with Bartschi at the WJC, where he looked much more like a perimeter player who didn't get himself greasy. That said, we've not seen him in the WHL, and he's obviously doing something right. We also talked to several NHL scouts about him in Buffalo, and B2011DW is in the minority when it comes to Bartschi: he's going to go higher than we would take him, and he's a good kid, so there isn't much you can go wrong with given his speed, quick stick and penchant for putting up points. So long as your team can live with his tendency to avoid contact and not drive to the net as much as he could, he's got a high ceiling.
Rocco Grimaldi, C U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-6, 161- Let it be said right now: B2011DW loves this guy, and we have for some time. He's the smallest of the legitimate draft prospects in class, but boy, can this kid ever play! He might have rockets attached to his skates given the way he flies all over the ice and his hands are just sublime. He takes the puck to the net and great things follow whenever he does. The passion and energy that he plays with is infectious, and you can't help but root for him. The inevitable comparisons to Brian Gionta are legitimate, and time and time again, we've seen small guys with elite skating and puck skills turn out to be fine NHL players. Put Grimaldi in this category as well. All he's done is score in bunches, and for such a small guy, his 11-12-23 line in 19 USHL games this season is simply outstanding. The size is obviously going to drop him, but we're honestly not sure how far, simply because he's such a game-breaker. Watch for him to tear it up for North Dakota immediately upon arriving in Grand Forks, and Grimaldi will be worth waiting for down the road for the NHL team who rolls the dice on him.
Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180- The 2009 OHL draft's top pick had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney in August and has taken off from there, more than doubling his production from a year ago with the Greyhounds and making himself into a legitimate top-60 selection in June. The son of Murphy's coach for the York-Simcoe Express (Maurice Catenacci) is another super-skilled waterbug of a player who has excellent speed, super balance on his edges and quick hands. He also plays with a real edge as evidenced by his 105 penalty minutes this season. His 26-42-68 stats line on a weak team is a pretty good accomplishment and you have to give the guy credit for overcoming the disappointment being associated with him as the OHL's top bantam pick by having a strong draft year to convince scouts of his worthiness as an NHL prospect.
Adam Clendening, D Boston University (HE) 5-11, 187- We won't say a great deal about upstate NY native and former U.S. NTDP standout given that you can read the in-depth scouting report we recently published on him right here. He grew up a Bruins fan despite being in the middle of Buffalo Sabres country because his dad was a lifelong Boston booster after getting to know old B's junior players from Niagara Falls like Derek Sanderson, Don Awrey and Bernie Parent to name a few. Clendening's lack of size and speed will work against him, but he has an excellent touch on the puck and is a very heady player.
Mike St. Croix, C Edmonton (WHL) 5-11, 163- This highly talented pivot was a polarizing player among scouts because while nobody doubted his high-end puck skills and offensive hockey sense, he began the season playing so indifferently in his own end. Reports out of the west say that he picked things up considerably a month in, and has quietly positioned himself to be a solid first-round pick with 26 goals and 72 points for the Oil Kings, second to Dylan Wruck (74 points) and even smaller skill player (5-8) for them (we'll address Wruck in Pt. 2 coming soon). B2011DW has been slow to come around on St. Croix because we heard he was such a "dog" (NHL scout's words) in the defensive zone. But, to the youngster's credit, he's not only continued scoring at an impressive clip, he's shown more diligence and a willingness to stick his nose in and play hard.
Phillip Danault, LW Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 165- The highly skilled forward works very hard for his chances and is a coach's dream. He's one of those guys who never stops moving his feet and creates chances because he outworks everyone else on the ice. He's put up some nice production with 21 goals, 63 points in 61 games this season and we're sure NHL teams like him because of his hustle and intelligence. That said, he's not very strong and is going to require a lot of time and patience to develop to the point that he can be an active contributor in the NHL. Another member of the 2011 gold medal Ivan Hlinka squad, he's a feel-good story for Victoriaville: his father is the team's PA announcer and young Phillip grew up bleeding the black and gold of les Tigres. Like Grimaldi, he's someone you pull for because he's good for hockey, but Danault is nowhere near as talented as the Californian.
Thats a wrap on part 1. We will return with capsules on Tobias Rieder, Shane McColgan, Matt Nieto, Colten St. Clair, Alan Quine and Victor Arvidsson among others.
Friday, January 21, 2011
CHL Top Prospects Game Analysis: Team Orr- the forwards
Here's the final analysis post series of the 2011 CHL Top Prospects Game, closing out with the victorious Team Orr forwards.
Jonathan Huberdeau, C Saint John (QMJHL)-- The Ryan Strome of the Quebec league in terms of a player who is blowing expectations out of the water; Huberdeau is rising fast (and his 4th overall Central ranking is much more in line with his potential than where they had Strome) --just having a sensational season for the Sea Dogs. Watching him a little last year, you knew he had the height, hands and creativity to be a skilled offensive pivot, but the revelation this season has been the way he's filling the net. Wednesday's top prospects game was no exception, as he pounced on David Musil's rebound, patiently waited for a sprawling Christopher Gibson to take himself out of the play and then slid the puck into the open cage. That kind of poise and patience is a hallmark of any legitimate goal scorer. Huberdeau has a long, fluid stride and is one of those players who the puck seems to follow around the ice. He got into some physical shoving matches and didn't back down. His meteoric rise reminds me a bit of another Quebecois center in 2006- Derick Brassard, who secured top-10 draft billing with Columbus after an outstanding second-half of the season and playoffs. The difference with Huberdeau is-- he's been doing it all year. This kid is a stud; he plays with some real swagger and I love his intelligence and fire.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)-- B2011DW has been a fan of the 'Nuge since watching video of him from last season. Like Huberdeau, Team Orr's captain had a statement game in which he made a lot of things happen offensively for Orr. Granted, it was one game, and you can see why he's one of the top scorers amongst the draft-eligible forwards this year. He's an elite skater, with instant acceleration and outstanding top-end speed and the shifty elusiveness that you want to see from the small-to-average sized guys, which is what he is. RNH is a terrific puckhandler, and with his superior vision and offensive hockey sense, he's a going concern most nights. The top prospects game also revealed an aspect of a little of the frustration some scouts have expressed about him off-line: he made several brilliant plays to set up goals, but didn't show much finish and wasn't able to find the shooting lanes to provide evidence that his 13 goals this season are an aberration. There's some risk with the 'Nuge because as highly skilled as he is, his size deficit could work against him in the NHL. The curious lack of goal scoring (though he's coming through with more than an assist per game) is something that will be talked about in a lot of NHL war rooms this spring, but make no mistake-- he's a top-four pick come June.
Vladislav Namestnikov, C London (OHL)-- The Knights pivot got into the game ahead of another offensively gifted Russian in Windsor's Alexander Khokhlachev, but showed off some of his slick puck moves and offensive potential. He assisted on Dougie Hamilton's goal by gaining the zone along the right wall, putting on the brakes to shake the defender, and then hitting the Niagara defenseman with a perfect cross-ice feed that Hamilton was able to power through. You can see that he has magical hands and the ability to do some really cool things in the offensive zone because he's more of a slippery center who has that innate ability to elude the would-be checker and find his open teammate for a quality scoring chance. Namestnikov did not come off as well as RNH and Huberdeau, but he helped himself with an active, involved game.
Boone Jenner, C Oshawa (OHL)-- This game was very typical of what Jenner is as a player: solid, productive but unremarkable. Jenner isn't a great skater, but has gotten to the point at least where any deficiencies are not noticeable, according to one NHL scout who expressed some serious concerns before the season about Jenner's wheels. He does hustle, however, and his heart and willingness to work the proverbial bag off all the time go a long way toward erasing any concerns that may linger about the skating. He's a pretty straight-line player: A to B without a lot of flash and dash. And, you don't necessarily find yourself drawn to him during a game, but at the end of the night, you look at the boxscore and there he is, with a couple of points. That's how his top prospects performance looked on video-- you heard his name, but didn't really notice him all that much, until the puck ended up in the net and you realized that he was in on the play. He's got intangibles, and doesn't seem like much of a fit for the Bruins given how stacked they are at center, but you never know. One thing seems certain, though-- some NHL team will call Jenner's name early enough in the draft. The biggest question with him is upside, but given the work he's done to get his skating more where it needs to be, don't bet against this guy.
Lucas Lessio, C/W Oshawa (OHL)-- A fellow General with Jenner and Team Cherry forward Nicklas Jensen, Lessio is what I would call the "Anti-Jenner" in that he's about the same size as his fellow center (6-1, 190+) but certainly is blessed with an inordinate amount of natural skating ability and quick stick/offensive prowess. It's the work ethic, intensity and consistency which seem to be lacking. Lessio didn't do a whole lot in the game, to be honest. Yes, because he's got good wheels, you heard his name a few times and he was in and around the play in the Cherry end, but I thought his play was pretty similar to what I saw from him on New Year's Day. He's noticeable in stretches simply because he's too talented a player not to be, but he comes off lazy and uninvolved at times. I know this sounds bad, and in Lessio's defense, it's really hard to get a read on a player just by watching on television. This guy is a prototypical NHL forward in terms of the physical tools and skills, but he's got some maturing to do.
Colin Jacobs, C Seattle (WHL)-- A pretty nondescript performance overall, although the Texas native did show off some good skating ability playing on a line with Brandon Saad and Vince Trocheck. Watching him, I was reminded of what one NHL scout told me about Jacobs earlier this season: that he looks like a player with the size, skating and puck skills, but at the end of the day, he doesn't seem to accomplish a whole lot. Not a bad guy to take in the third-round maybe, but if you're talking top-60, there's some risk because of the inconsistent production.
Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)-- The top pick in the OHL Priority Selection two years ago looked precisely like the No. 1 guy in this game, dazzling with his speed and killer instinct on the shorthanded goal scored in the 1st period to take the wind out of Team Cherry's sails after they dominated territorially and in the first five to ten minutes. Although small, Catenacci is highly dynamic and has gotten a chance to spread his wings this season according to reports from scouts. He's susceptible to being out-muscled along the boards and in the dirty areas in front of the net, but he's active, involved and hustles. Catenacci made the most of his chance at the Ivan Hlinka in August and has carried over that gold medal pedigree with the Greyhounds this season to force his way into the draft picture after many NHL teams had him as barely a blip on the radars prior to August. His stock will continue to rise after this game.
Brandon Saad, RW Saginaw (OHL)-- The American power winger from Pennsylvania didn't have a flashy game, but he stood out with his size, strength, and ability to cycle the puck and control the play down low. When Cherry was running the table on Orr early, it was Saad who bought his team some time to regroup by maintaining puck possession in the Cherry zone and creating an early scoring chance that took some pressure off of Liam Liston and the Orr defense. You didn't see much of the offense that is so appealing and why he looks to be a top-10 pick in June, but Saad was solid. He's one guy I wish would have been in Buffalo for Team USA at the WJC not only for the chance to see him, but because there wasn't enough of a size/skill element on the wings. USA was big up the middle, but I think Jim Johannson and company blew it with their winger makeup-- too many small, slick guys, not enough beef. No offense intended to Chris Brown, but he didn't have the pure skill and scoring upside Saad would have brought in addition to his wide body and ability to aid int he puck possession game. He'll be in Calgary for sure in 2012, unless he happens to be skating for an NHL team somewhere, which doesn't seem probable, but you never know.
Vince Trocheck, LW Saginaw (OHL)-- Saad's teammate and fellow Keystone stater had a solid game and scored a goal that he probably should not have, but that's what happens when the defender (Myles Bell) is asleep at the switch and let's you get in behind him, while the goalie is playing so deep in his net, he has no chance to react to the perfect backhand shot coming his way. That's what Trocheck did to David Honzik, but that kind of opportunistic scoring is what Trocheck tends to do. He doesn't have much in the way of size, but is a live skater and plays bigger than his 5-10 frame should allow. This kid looks to be more than the sum of his parts, and it will be interesting to see where he's drafted. If a team loves him enough, look at the early 2nd, maybe even late 1st. But, if he slips past 50 like Jason Zucker did last season, Trocheck could be a steal.
Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL)-- The Winterhawk scoring winger showed that he has a knack for closing out the play when high-end table setters give him an opportunity. Bartschi and RNH combined on Team Orr's second goal, a play Gibson had no chance on after the Red Deer center forced the Cherry goalie to play him all the way before dishing to his driving Swiss linemate who didn't miss. The speed, hands and offensive capability I saw from Bartschi in Buffalo was on display in the top prospects game. So was the tendency to play out on the perimeter. He did get into a dustup with Duncan Siemens behind the Cherry net, but was happy to see Musil jump in and take on the hard-nosed Saskatoon rearguard. Bartschi is a gifted scorer, but he doesn't have countryman and Portland teammate Nino Niederreiter's edge or grit. Sven doesn't have Niederreiter's size, and is a decent, polite chap, but if I were on an NHL scouting staff, I wouldn't be in favor of drafting him in the first round. It's an opinion I know for a fact NHL teams don't share-- he'll go in the top-30 come June, but at the end of the day, even with the goal, I saw nothing addressed about the concerns I had from watching the WJC late last month.
Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)-- The smallest and lowest-ranked (102nd) by Central player in the game showed some energy and feistiness. There isn't a whole lot else to say-- the concerns about the size at the NHL level are founded. He doesn't appear to have any more growing to do, and he may not be skilled enough to be the kind of difference-maker at that level. Time will tell, but he didn't get a ton of ice time to show a great deal to those who watched.
Zack Phillips, LW Saint John (QMJHL)-- Like Jenner, Phillips had the kind of top prospects game that scouts have seen from him in Saint John. He's not the fastest guy out there or all that dynamic, but man-- when he's around the net and the puck is nearby, chances are, it will be behind the goalie soon. He finished off a nice play with RNH when the diminutive center took the puck hard to the net, backing Honzik deep into the cage along the goal line. Phillips pounced on the loose puck sitting in front of the Cherry netminder and calmly flipped it over the Czech goalie (and that guy does take up a good portion of the net even when down). It was as unspectacular a score that you'll see, but it gets to what Phillips is: a smart, opportunistic player who happens to make the most of his chances. I understand he's been playing more of the center role in Saint John, with Huberdeau on the wing, but Phillips will be a winger in the pros.
Well-- there you have it.
Will try to get some more viewings of the games and see what else I can come up with, but time to move on with the second half of the season. Will have many more posts to keep things rolling all through winter and into the spring when things heat up, so keep coming back for more- this blog space will deliver the kind of in-depth NHL draft coverage the hardest of the hardcore hockey fans crave and demand!
Jonathan Huberdeau, C Saint John (QMJHL)-- The Ryan Strome of the Quebec league in terms of a player who is blowing expectations out of the water; Huberdeau is rising fast (and his 4th overall Central ranking is much more in line with his potential than where they had Strome) --just having a sensational season for the Sea Dogs. Watching him a little last year, you knew he had the height, hands and creativity to be a skilled offensive pivot, but the revelation this season has been the way he's filling the net. Wednesday's top prospects game was no exception, as he pounced on David Musil's rebound, patiently waited for a sprawling Christopher Gibson to take himself out of the play and then slid the puck into the open cage. That kind of poise and patience is a hallmark of any legitimate goal scorer. Huberdeau has a long, fluid stride and is one of those players who the puck seems to follow around the ice. He got into some physical shoving matches and didn't back down. His meteoric rise reminds me a bit of another Quebecois center in 2006- Derick Brassard, who secured top-10 draft billing with Columbus after an outstanding second-half of the season and playoffs. The difference with Huberdeau is-- he's been doing it all year. This kid is a stud; he plays with some real swagger and I love his intelligence and fire.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)-- B2011DW has been a fan of the 'Nuge since watching video of him from last season. Like Huberdeau, Team Orr's captain had a statement game in which he made a lot of things happen offensively for Orr. Granted, it was one game, and you can see why he's one of the top scorers amongst the draft-eligible forwards this year. He's an elite skater, with instant acceleration and outstanding top-end speed and the shifty elusiveness that you want to see from the small-to-average sized guys, which is what he is. RNH is a terrific puckhandler, and with his superior vision and offensive hockey sense, he's a going concern most nights. The top prospects game also revealed an aspect of a little of the frustration some scouts have expressed about him off-line: he made several brilliant plays to set up goals, but didn't show much finish and wasn't able to find the shooting lanes to provide evidence that his 13 goals this season are an aberration. There's some risk with the 'Nuge because as highly skilled as he is, his size deficit could work against him in the NHL. The curious lack of goal scoring (though he's coming through with more than an assist per game) is something that will be talked about in a lot of NHL war rooms this spring, but make no mistake-- he's a top-four pick come June.
Vladislav Namestnikov, C London (OHL)-- The Knights pivot got into the game ahead of another offensively gifted Russian in Windsor's Alexander Khokhlachev, but showed off some of his slick puck moves and offensive potential. He assisted on Dougie Hamilton's goal by gaining the zone along the right wall, putting on the brakes to shake the defender, and then hitting the Niagara defenseman with a perfect cross-ice feed that Hamilton was able to power through. You can see that he has magical hands and the ability to do some really cool things in the offensive zone because he's more of a slippery center who has that innate ability to elude the would-be checker and find his open teammate for a quality scoring chance. Namestnikov did not come off as well as RNH and Huberdeau, but he helped himself with an active, involved game.
Boone Jenner, C Oshawa (OHL)-- This game was very typical of what Jenner is as a player: solid, productive but unremarkable. Jenner isn't a great skater, but has gotten to the point at least where any deficiencies are not noticeable, according to one NHL scout who expressed some serious concerns before the season about Jenner's wheels. He does hustle, however, and his heart and willingness to work the proverbial bag off all the time go a long way toward erasing any concerns that may linger about the skating. He's a pretty straight-line player: A to B without a lot of flash and dash. And, you don't necessarily find yourself drawn to him during a game, but at the end of the night, you look at the boxscore and there he is, with a couple of points. That's how his top prospects performance looked on video-- you heard his name, but didn't really notice him all that much, until the puck ended up in the net and you realized that he was in on the play. He's got intangibles, and doesn't seem like much of a fit for the Bruins given how stacked they are at center, but you never know. One thing seems certain, though-- some NHL team will call Jenner's name early enough in the draft. The biggest question with him is upside, but given the work he's done to get his skating more where it needs to be, don't bet against this guy.
Lucas Lessio, C/W Oshawa (OHL)-- A fellow General with Jenner and Team Cherry forward Nicklas Jensen, Lessio is what I would call the "Anti-Jenner" in that he's about the same size as his fellow center (6-1, 190+) but certainly is blessed with an inordinate amount of natural skating ability and quick stick/offensive prowess. It's the work ethic, intensity and consistency which seem to be lacking. Lessio didn't do a whole lot in the game, to be honest. Yes, because he's got good wheels, you heard his name a few times and he was in and around the play in the Cherry end, but I thought his play was pretty similar to what I saw from him on New Year's Day. He's noticeable in stretches simply because he's too talented a player not to be, but he comes off lazy and uninvolved at times. I know this sounds bad, and in Lessio's defense, it's really hard to get a read on a player just by watching on television. This guy is a prototypical NHL forward in terms of the physical tools and skills, but he's got some maturing to do.
Colin Jacobs, C Seattle (WHL)-- A pretty nondescript performance overall, although the Texas native did show off some good skating ability playing on a line with Brandon Saad and Vince Trocheck. Watching him, I was reminded of what one NHL scout told me about Jacobs earlier this season: that he looks like a player with the size, skating and puck skills, but at the end of the day, he doesn't seem to accomplish a whole lot. Not a bad guy to take in the third-round maybe, but if you're talking top-60, there's some risk because of the inconsistent production.
Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)-- The top pick in the OHL Priority Selection two years ago looked precisely like the No. 1 guy in this game, dazzling with his speed and killer instinct on the shorthanded goal scored in the 1st period to take the wind out of Team Cherry's sails after they dominated territorially and in the first five to ten minutes. Although small, Catenacci is highly dynamic and has gotten a chance to spread his wings this season according to reports from scouts. He's susceptible to being out-muscled along the boards and in the dirty areas in front of the net, but he's active, involved and hustles. Catenacci made the most of his chance at the Ivan Hlinka in August and has carried over that gold medal pedigree with the Greyhounds this season to force his way into the draft picture after many NHL teams had him as barely a blip on the radars prior to August. His stock will continue to rise after this game.
Brandon Saad, RW Saginaw (OHL)-- The American power winger from Pennsylvania didn't have a flashy game, but he stood out with his size, strength, and ability to cycle the puck and control the play down low. When Cherry was running the table on Orr early, it was Saad who bought his team some time to regroup by maintaining puck possession in the Cherry zone and creating an early scoring chance that took some pressure off of Liam Liston and the Orr defense. You didn't see much of the offense that is so appealing and why he looks to be a top-10 pick in June, but Saad was solid. He's one guy I wish would have been in Buffalo for Team USA at the WJC not only for the chance to see him, but because there wasn't enough of a size/skill element on the wings. USA was big up the middle, but I think Jim Johannson and company blew it with their winger makeup-- too many small, slick guys, not enough beef. No offense intended to Chris Brown, but he didn't have the pure skill and scoring upside Saad would have brought in addition to his wide body and ability to aid int he puck possession game. He'll be in Calgary for sure in 2012, unless he happens to be skating for an NHL team somewhere, which doesn't seem probable, but you never know.
Vince Trocheck, LW Saginaw (OHL)-- Saad's teammate and fellow Keystone stater had a solid game and scored a goal that he probably should not have, but that's what happens when the defender (Myles Bell) is asleep at the switch and let's you get in behind him, while the goalie is playing so deep in his net, he has no chance to react to the perfect backhand shot coming his way. That's what Trocheck did to David Honzik, but that kind of opportunistic scoring is what Trocheck tends to do. He doesn't have much in the way of size, but is a live skater and plays bigger than his 5-10 frame should allow. This kid looks to be more than the sum of his parts, and it will be interesting to see where he's drafted. If a team loves him enough, look at the early 2nd, maybe even late 1st. But, if he slips past 50 like Jason Zucker did last season, Trocheck could be a steal.
Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL)-- The Winterhawk scoring winger showed that he has a knack for closing out the play when high-end table setters give him an opportunity. Bartschi and RNH combined on Team Orr's second goal, a play Gibson had no chance on after the Red Deer center forced the Cherry goalie to play him all the way before dishing to his driving Swiss linemate who didn't miss. The speed, hands and offensive capability I saw from Bartschi in Buffalo was on display in the top prospects game. So was the tendency to play out on the perimeter. He did get into a dustup with Duncan Siemens behind the Cherry net, but was happy to see Musil jump in and take on the hard-nosed Saskatoon rearguard. Bartschi is a gifted scorer, but he doesn't have countryman and Portland teammate Nino Niederreiter's edge or grit. Sven doesn't have Niederreiter's size, and is a decent, polite chap, but if I were on an NHL scouting staff, I wouldn't be in favor of drafting him in the first round. It's an opinion I know for a fact NHL teams don't share-- he'll go in the top-30 come June, but at the end of the day, even with the goal, I saw nothing addressed about the concerns I had from watching the WJC late last month.
Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)-- The smallest and lowest-ranked (102nd) by Central player in the game showed some energy and feistiness. There isn't a whole lot else to say-- the concerns about the size at the NHL level are founded. He doesn't appear to have any more growing to do, and he may not be skilled enough to be the kind of difference-maker at that level. Time will tell, but he didn't get a ton of ice time to show a great deal to those who watched.
Zack Phillips, LW Saint John (QMJHL)-- Like Jenner, Phillips had the kind of top prospects game that scouts have seen from him in Saint John. He's not the fastest guy out there or all that dynamic, but man-- when he's around the net and the puck is nearby, chances are, it will be behind the goalie soon. He finished off a nice play with RNH when the diminutive center took the puck hard to the net, backing Honzik deep into the cage along the goal line. Phillips pounced on the loose puck sitting in front of the Cherry netminder and calmly flipped it over the Czech goalie (and that guy does take up a good portion of the net even when down). It was as unspectacular a score that you'll see, but it gets to what Phillips is: a smart, opportunistic player who happens to make the most of his chances. I understand he's been playing more of the center role in Saint John, with Huberdeau on the wing, but Phillips will be a winger in the pros.
Well-- there you have it.
Will try to get some more viewings of the games and see what else I can come up with, but time to move on with the second half of the season. Will have many more posts to keep things rolling all through winter and into the spring when things heat up, so keep coming back for more- this blog space will deliver the kind of in-depth NHL draft coverage the hardest of the hardcore hockey fans crave and demand!
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