50 in 30: B2011DW's top-50 players for the NHL Draft 21-30

Just in time for the long weekend in the U.S., Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the Memorial Cup semifinal match between Mississauga and Kootenay (with Saint John facing the winner on Sunday) Bruins 2011 Draft Watch is here to bring you the fourth installment of our top-50 (plus honorable mentions) for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

30. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-3, 200 07/14/1993
On pure talent alone, Gibson is more of a top-20 pick than anything else. But here at B2011DW, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least take the latest NHL drafting trends into consideration, and that means that Gibson could be the victim of a pervasive thought we've been hearing over and over with NHL scouts this season: that taking a goaltender high in the draft is not a good use of assets considering all of the successful goalies this season who were not first- or second-round picks. Only one of the four netminders in the NHL semifinal series (Roberto Luongo- 4th overall in 1997) was a top-60 pick (Tim Thomas- 217th overall in 1994, Dwayne Roloson, Antti Niemi- undrafted free agents). That said, Gibson is by far the best of the 2011 crop in our view and deserves to be picked in the first round if a team values him there enough. He's got the size, quickness and athleticism that is a requisite for being a high draft pick these days, and even better, Gibson plays with a calm and poise that is a sight to behold. No moment seems too overwhelming to him. He won back-to-back overtime games in the U-18 against Canada (after an epic collapse in the third) and against Sweden (after his team came back from being two goals down in the third) to clinch the gold medal. As the tournament's best goalie, Gibson lived up to every inch of the buzz preceding him. The Pittsburgh native de-committed from Ohio State in favor of Michigan, so those Wolverines-Buckeyes games ought to be real interesting. When on top of his game, like he was all throughout the Worlds, he looms large in net and swallows up rebounds. He could have a sign put up in his crease that says "Abandon all hope ye who enter here" because he's that intimidating.

29. Vladislav Namestnikov, C London (OHL)5-11, 170 11/22/1992
Skill and NHL bloodlines flow strong through this prospect. His father, Evgeny, was a journeyman defender in the NHL, AHL, and IHL- the son was raised for a big chunk of his early life in North American while dad was playing. His uncle, Slava Kozlov, won multiple Stanley Cups with Detroit and was one of the most skilled players in the NHL at his peak. Namestnikov is a serious skater with all the tools in the box when it comes to his feet- quick burst, top speed, shiftiness and agility. When carrying the puck at full gallop, he's very difficult to contain. His biggest challenge is getting stronger and filling out a slight frame. He got knocked around a bit this year, but made a quick transition to the North American game given his command of the language and ease with having played in North American rinks growing up. With his hands and offensive hockey sense, this guy has some real pro potential, but like many young scoring forwards he needs to work on the defensive aspects of his game. There could be a real nice payoff down the road with this player.

"He's a great teammate and works real hard," Boston Bruins prospect and London forward Jared Knight told B2011DW recently. "In practice it's fun to watch him handle the puck because he's got some sick mitts. He plays hard and isn't afraid to drive the net."

28. Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad (SEL) 6-1, 175 07/12/1993
At 28, it would appear that this extremely bright Swedish defender's stock is down. It's isn't, but he's more a victim of his solid all-around game but lack of production than anything else. It's all about projection with this potential stud, but after watching what was a promising and underrated performance at the World Under-18s last month, we're not seeing the dynamic upside with him that we see from others. His hockey sense is tremendous- by far the best aspect of Brodin's game. He can diagram a play instantly and move the puck with authority. The numbers aren't there because he was playing against men this year as a 17-year-old but should come. Oh, and did we mention that he helped lead the team to the SEL championship? He's highly mobile and agile with excellent footwork. He doesn't stand out as much as teammate and fellow draft prospect Oscar Klefbom, but he processes his reads and decisions at a higher level. Brodin is a solid player whom we feel is going to be good, but not great. When looking at projectable upside, we have Klefbom higher, but Brodin is the safer player less likely to hit a bust factor. If ever there was a pick your flavor situation with two players- this is it.

27. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) 6-4, 200 10/14/1992
On talent and upside alone, Mayfield should be higher on the list, but it's been a tough season for the St. Louis native. To say he's been in a tough spot for development for the past couple of seasons is about as far as we're willing to go. The long and short of this late '92 is that he's a highly impressive player as far as pure projection goes, but the feeling by many in the NHL scouting community is that he simply has not progressed the way he should have based on the way he looked a year ago in August at the Eight Nations tourney and even this past August when he participated in the NHL's Research and Development Camp in Toronto. He's a very good skater with the fluid stride and lateral agility team's love to see in a big man. He can move the puck effectively and has a nice shot that he generates some real power on. It will become even more dangerous as he adds strength and mass to his long, lanky frame. Right now, Mayfield is extremely raw and prone to poor decisions because his team has struggled so much. One NHL scout said that he sees so much ice time that it's easy to lay his flaws bare, and because he has very little help around him, some are concerned about the effect on his psyche.

Another big league scout who saw him for the R & D camp and then again in March had this to say: "It was shocking how bad he was. I saw no progression from when I saw him before and the decision-making was particularly troublesome."

The good news for Mayfield is that he's going an excellent hockey program in Denver under DU coach George Gwozdecky. If anyone can get him ready for the NHL the Pioneers can.

26. Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) 5-10, 175 05/09/1993
Supremely talented, and could go significantly higher than where we have him because of his elite skill and explosiveness. B2011DW has some concerns about the other areas of his game, specifically, intensity, consistency and overall effort levels in the areas of the rink where his skill set doesn't translate as well (along the boards and in front of the net). He's not very big, but has very good acceleration, separation gear and even the shifty elusiveness that so many European players possess. When at his best, he's flying around the ice, turning defenders inside out and wiring pucks to the back of the net from just about any spot in the offensive zone. One NHL scout we know absolutely loved Khokhlachev at the beginning of the year given how seamless his transition was to the OHL, but as the season wore on and he saw him more and more, the red flags started to surface about his overall intensity and willingness to compete when the going gets rough. Solid two-way player...when he wants to be. If he tightens it up in all zones and on most of his shifts, he's easily a top-10 talent in this class.

25. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-2, 210 04/30/1993
Victimized by unrealistic expectations, Biggs could end up proving a lot of the critics wrong. We don't buy into the belief that he killed his stock at the World Under-18 tourney- we just don't feel that it was as high with the NHL teams out there as Central scouting led everyone to believe when they ranked him fifth overall among North American skaters on their midterm list. He lives up to his last name- a powerful skater and battering ram who plays the game like a legitimate power forward. When Biggs is on top of his game, he bulls his way to the net, spins and cycles effortlessly while protecting the puck from defenders powerless to separate him from it, and unleashes a rocket shot that is heavy and hurts. Unfortunately, scouts are unsure of his hockey sense and ability to create for himself. That's one of those aspects of hockey that is extremely tough to project and Biggs could very well end up being a legitimate top-six forward someday- he can skate, hit and fight. But there are enough concerns about his upside that keep him from being a top-20 guy in our view. However, he is extremely close- the margin between his not making the cut is razor-thin as any one of the players ahead of him at 21-24 could all make the case to be inside the top-20. He's a good player, but how good is the big question on draft day.

24. Zack Phillips, C Saint John (QMJHL) 6-1, 190 10/28/1992
This scoring stud lost some effectiveness down the stretch with a shoulder injury he suffered in the President's Cup final series against Gatineau. As such he hasn't been able to shine as brightly in the Memorial Cup as he did during the regular season when he and linemates Jonathan Huberdeau and Michael Kirkpatrick destroyed opposing defenses and netminders. The biggest knock on Phillips is his lack of speed and explosiveness, but the NHL is full of guys who don't have the most dynamic skating ability. Where he compensates is with his hands and elite hockey sense- Phillips may be the most opportunistic scorer of any prospect in this entire class. He drives the net honestly and often times finds results. One of the questions scouts have is whether Phillips can do it on a team without the pure talent and depth he has surrounding him in St. John. We think he'll do it no matter who he's with, whether at the center position or on the wing at the next level. He was the ninth-ranked player in THN's draft issue and while we feel that is a bit high, we could see how an NHL team in need for some legit scoring chops might have him as a solid top-15 pick this year.

23. Matt Puempel, LW Peterborough (OHL) 6-0, 170 01/30/1993
One player we generally wanted to have higher, but simply couldn't do so based on lack of viewing opportunities. B2011DW fully recognizes that the Petes standout who scored back-to-back 30-goal seasons with his club who could have had 40+ goals this year if not for a bone chip in his hip that shelved him for surgery with about a month to go is a high-end scoring talent. The 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year has unreal hands and offensive hockey sense. He can snipe pucks from anywhere in the offensive zone and does the unexplainable- able to fire the puck from seemingly impossible angles and situations. He ripped a bullet from the right side less than a minute into the gold medal game of the Ivan Hlinka in what ended up being a 1-0 win for Canada (who has owned that non-IIHF tourney since its inception btw). Where Puempel loses his shine is in the fact that he is of extremely average size, strength, skating ability and compete level. He's not poor in any of those areas, but NHL scouts look at him and keep thinking how much more dangerous and effective he could be if he just tried a little harder, had an extra step and adds the extra mass that's expected before he hits his physical peak. We don't think the hip injury will hurt him much at the draft- we're told it isn't a chronic condition and whichever team drafts him will do so based on everything they've seen from him over two seasons, not what he might have accomplished in the last month for a non-playoff team.

22. Jonathan "J.T." Miller, C/RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-1, 198 03/14/1993
We're not as bullish on Miller as others are, but we agonized over whether to include the immensely talented Ohio native who played his minor hockey for the Pittsburgh Hornets organization after his explosion at the Under-18s in April. All year, we watched Miller and recognized his excellent size, skating, hands and sense, but wondered why he was having so much trouble translating his myriad natural gifts into production. Miller showed what he's capable of when he led Team USA in scoring en route to an unprecedented third consecutive gold medal at that tourney by the Americans. When on top of his game, he can back defenses up with his ability to handle the puck at top speed. He uses his big frame to shield the puck well and can hit open teammates with pinpoint passes. He and Rocco Grimaldi teamed up with Reid Boucher for a memorable goal against Canada- Grimaldi blew Travis Ewanyk off the puck with a big hit behind the net. As it skittered to Miller, he already knew where Boucher was just inside the left circle and zipped a crisp pass right into Boucher's wheelhouse. In a split second, it was by Malcolm Subban. Those are the kinds of plays Miller didn't make with enough regularity this season, but we wouldn't at all be surprised if an NHL club jumped on him in the top-15. The skills are there, we're just not sure about the rest of the package to be able to score consistently at the highest level.

21. Joel Armia, RW Assat Pori (FIN) 6-3, 198 05/31/1993
Another toolsy prospect that B2011DW will no doubt be second-guessed on, we've seen him live and we've seen him on video and sorry to all the Finnish hockey fans out there, but we just can't get on board with this guy in the top-20. We suspect an NHL club will jump on him in the top-15 because of his intriguing mix of size and scoring upside. That said, he's risky because to us, he looks a lot like a more skilled Mikko Lehtonen, who scored goals, but also went through the motions for two seasons as a member of the Providence Bruins before tearing it up in the Swedish Elite League this past year. The Bruins traded Lehtonen's rights to the Minnesota Wild, but like Lehtonen, Armia is an alternately a dazzling and frustrating player to watch. Whenever the puck is near him in the offensive zone, he's a threat to put it in the back of the net. He uses his large frame to fight off checkers and has a quick stick with laser-like release. However, when you watch the rest of his body of work, you keep wondering: "Where's the beef?" He doesn't backcheck much and just looks lazy skating up and down the wing at times. There's no denying the killer instincts offensively, but he's not nearly as talented as he and his fans think he is that he can get away with his lackadaisical approach to play in the neutral zone or his own end. Armia has the potential to blow this scouting report out of the water, but we gave him the benefit of the doubt several times. In the end, his uneven compete level and a lack of seeing him ever really take charge in any game we watched him play has him just outside the top-20.

Central North American Skaters final rankings: The next tier

In our last post, we looked at Central Scouting's top-10 North American skaters released today. Now, we'll look at the next tier of the first round, bringing you up to speed on most of the players from 11-30.

To see the Central final North American rankings, click on this link.

At 11, London Knights center Vladislav Namestnikov is a highly skilled and creative pivot who made the easy transition in his first North American season after coming over from Russia. Like Gabriel Landeskog, he has excellent command of the English language and speaks so well that aside from his slight accent, you would think he's just another kid from Oakville or even Milwaukee by the way he talks. He's also got the bloodlines: his father, Evgeny Namestnikov, was a defenseman played 43 NHL games with the Vancouver Canucks, New York Islanders and Nashville Predators, but also spent more than 400 games in the AHL and IHL before returning to Russia. His mother's brother, is Vyacheslav Kozlov, the former Detroit Red Wings scorer and Stanley Cup champion.

Two intriguing defensemen are on the list at 12 and 13: Portland puck mover Joe Morrow, up four spots to 12 from mid-term and the huge but polarizing Jamie Oleksiak, who zipped up the rankings 14 spots from 27. Morrow has a big shot and sees the ice well with a good touch on the puck, while Oleksiak is a massive 6-7, 240-pounder with giant wingspan and good mobility and agility for such a huge kid. Some see real upside with him, but we have questions at this blog as to whether his decision-making, vision and overall feel for the game will allow him to be the Tyler Myers or Zdeno Chara-type player some are comparing him to. Oleksiak is a strong bet to play in the NHL, but if he's more of a role player, you don't want to spend a pick close to 10 on someone like that.

Two big centers with the same first name and some intriguing upside in Mark McNeill and Mark Scheifele are on the list at 14 and 16, as is winger Zack Phillips, the third Saint John player in the top-15. Phillips may not be a blazer, but as far as players with quick hands and the knack for being at the right place at the right time go in this class, there aren't many better than the former UMass recruit and Lawrence Academy standout who switched gears for major junior and a faster track to the NHL.

Brandon Saad fell down the list from 8 at mid-term to 19th. A poor finish and so-so playoffs likely contributed to the fall from grace for the power forward. We'll take a closer look at Saad and his declining stock in a later post.

Another big American who took an even more sizeable drop is Tyler Biggs (no pun intended), who went from 5th overall at mid-season to 22nd on the final list. Like Saad, we'll examine the reasons for this drop a little later on.

Biggs's NTDP teammate, J.T. Miller, dropped 10 spots from 13 to 23 likely on the lack of production. Although he has size and skills, he has yet to really put it all together and may be little more than a solid third-liner at the NHL level.

Defenseman Connor Murphy, who was an "LV" or limited viewing at mid-term because of a back injury, played his way into the top-25, and brings a lot of projectable tools and some offensive potential. The U18 tournament could make or break him as a legitimate rising star for this draft. He is just ahead of USHL rearguard Scott Mayfield, who is probably listed generously at 24, as his stock has taken a downturn based on assessments that he has not progressed much in Youngstown.

Matt Puempel is a curious selection at 28; he's up just one spot at 29, but it's hard to imagine that the 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year and a guy who scored 30+ in each of his two OHL seasons (and could have had 40 this year had he not been forced to shut it down with a hip injury when a month remained) would be drafted as low as the Central ranking indicates. Jeff Skinner redux, anyone?

Shane Prince also gets into the first round, moving up 9 spots from 35 to 26, which is good news for a skilled scoring winger. His size is the one real bugaboo, and he's been criticized for putting himself into vulnerable positions and getting lit up with big hits. He suffered shoulder and head injuries late in the season.

Swedish winger Rickard Rakell is another B2011DW favorite; a speedy, agitating forward who played very well at the WJC when Landeskog went down. He missed time due to a lower body injury, but got into the playoffs at the right moment, helping to defeat Kitchener in the opening series. He's not all that big or strong, but is capable of making big-time plays.

We will be back with more on Central's North American rankings later tonight.

U.S. and Canada Juniors 2010-11 regular season roundup

We're checking back in with another installment of player recaps for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft from the USHL, CJHL and EJHL for regular season.

It is a down year for most of the Jr. A and Tier 2 leagues this year according to multiple NHL and independent sources we've talked to, but there is still talent to be had. Nobody's going to make an immediate impact, but teams looking for developmental projects with some upside can find some guys as long as they are willing to be patient and accept some risk.

We polled several NHL scouts with junior knowledge as well as Red Line Report's Max Giese, who has the pulse on the USHL and NCAA in the midwest.

"Overall it's a pretty bad year," Giese told B2011DW of the USHL draft crop. "The top guys let you down a bit this year and there were not many pleasant surprises, either. People were saying a few years ago that the '93s were not a great class as a whole, and based on what I've seen from them in the USHL, those thoughts are on the mark."

So, with that in mind- here is the Jr. A/Tier 2 review for 2011:

1. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP (USHL)- In the minds of several of our panel, Biggs is the best player to come out of the USHL and all of Jr. A/Tier 2 this season. Much of the discussion around the son of former minor league star Don Biggs has centered around the fact that he's being projected as more of a third-line player in the NHL. At 6-2, 210 the younger Biggs has the size and plays with a real aggressive mean streak and chip on his shoulder. He sleepwalks at times, which has been a drawback, but has pretty quick hands and a powerful shot. When he's on his game, Biggs is a hitter and throws his body around in intimidating fashion. His skating's not an issue, but the real concern teams have on him is with his hockey sense; he's not very creative and pretty much just drives the puck to the net but doesn't see the ice all that well and isn't able to get much done on his own.

The questions about his creativity are what lead Biggs to be seen as a 3rd/4th-line kind of checker/banger at the NHL level. But with just 7 goals and 11 points in 20 USHL games this year with the Under-18 team, the Miami University (OH) recruit is a bit of a wildcard- he could be a Milan Lucic kind of guy, or he might end up being Mike Brown. That's where Biggs will require a leap of faith for an NHL team to take him earlier. You might see a similar effect to Adam Clendening, where a team with several picks in each of the first two rounds gambles on a player like Biggs, whereas a club with just one in the 1st or 2nd shies away from him because they don't think they can afford to spend the pick on a guy who may just be lower-end grinder. It's all going to come down to how an NHL team views Biggs- if that staff sees a bigger picture upside with him, he could be a top-15 pick, but it's going to take a team really believing in him to do that because the conventional wisdom just doesn't see him achieving true power forward status.

2. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL)- It has been a confounding year for the St. Louis native and Denver University recruit who wowed NHL scouts at the Research & Development Camp last August by forming a massive but mobile shutdown pairing with Mike McKee. At 6-4, 200 pounds Mayfield has size and skating ability plus good puck skills and above average hockey sense going for him. He also plays a physical, hard-nosed game and is a pretty complete two-way defenseman when on his game. Unfortunately, he's playing on one of the worst USHL teams in Youngstown and hasn't gotten much help in terms of development this season, which has ultimately hurt his stock a bit after posting just 6 goals and 13 points in 45 games with the Phantoms this season after an impressive 10-12-22 campaign as a rookie last year.

"He came to the USHL as a late-bloomer needing some coaching and development and didn't get it," said one scout commenting on the Youngstown situation. "On top of that, they had him playing about 30 minutes a night, so he was gassed and prone to making mistakes. He just doesn't have much help on that team." The good news for Mayfield is that by going to DU, he will be on one of the top NCAA programs in terms of developing and preparing its players for the pro hockey ranks. Coach George Gwozdecky is one of the most respected coaches among NHL teams in that regard.

Giese has seen a lot of Mayfield going back to last season and had this to say about him: "He's definitely number one in the USHL (in my opinion) and has got by far the most upside of any of the kids," Giese told B2011DW. "He's massive, is an excellent skater, moves the puck pretty good and plays with some real physical aggression. If you're an NHL team and are thinking big picture, he's still a first-round pick and when he gets to a new location, he could be one of those players people are going to look back on and wonder why he went lower in the draft, which is the way things look for him right now."

USHL Radio Show interviews Mayfield back in November.

3. J.T. Miller, C U.S. NTDP (USHL)- Disappointing season for a player who has all the physical tools and skills to be a high-end NHL prospect, but who probably lacks the pure hockey sense to ever be the sum of his very impressive parts. Another Ohio native like Biggs, Miller is 6-1, 198 pounds with room to fill out and add strength to his lean but athletic frame. He's a very good skater with acceleration and agility, as well as that second gear that allows him to gain separation in the open ice. Miller is also a slick puckhandler who can make an array of moves to shake defenders or open up space for him on the ice. Some reports have him possessing solid vision and sense, but other scouts disagree, feeling that he's too talented a player to not have had more production and success given his high-end talent level. It's a difference of opinion, and likely the NHL team that pounces on Miller is going to be on the side of those who feel his instincts are fine. Still, with just 3 goals and 15 points in 21 USHL games this year, Miller is only fourth on his team in scoring. As some of the critics have said- he may not be much more than a 3rd-liner in the NHL.

4. Rocco Grimaldi, U.S. NTDP (USHL)- The U.S. team's top scorer and pure talent is an exciting player to watch and plays with so much passion and energy its hard not to root for him. He had a terrific Five Nations performance in February and in 23 USHL games this season has 12 goals and 25 points, which is pretty good considering he is just 5-6 and about 160. Where the concerns come in are tied to how he projects in the NHL. Few doubt that he's going to be an impactful and productive NCAA player right off the bat because his speed, hands and hockey IQ are all top caliber. But the worry is that he doesn't appear to have any more growing to do or weight/mass to add on his tiny frame, meaning that he's likely going to have to play in the pros at 160-170 pounds. That's tough for NHL clubs, even with they love a player's skill, to bite the bullet on, especially with so much at stake in terms of fewer picks in a seven-round draft and the salary cap making organization building from within so much more important than it used to be when teams could cover draft mistakes with cash.

Make no mistake- Grimaldi has the skill to be an NHL player, and with his heart, he probably will be one someday. But, he is still a risk of a player when you're talking about taking him in the top-15 or 20. "To me what he did in Europe is not a big surprise," Giese said of Grimaldi. "That's where he thrives- on the wider ice surface, playing other skill teams like Sweden and Russia. When you're scouting him, you're not projecting him as an international player, but in the NHL, so the questions you have to answer are: will he find a way in the NHL?"

Jerome at NHL Draft Video has this shootout goal from Grimaldi for us.

5. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP (USHL)- This Pittsburgh native and University of Michigan recruit (after he broke verbal commitment with Ohio State) will battle Samu Perhonen for top goalie honors for this class in our view. At 6-3, 185 he's got the ideal size and athleticism for the position. He's lean, but guys like Tuukka Rask have proven that speed and power need not be sacrificed for mass. Scouts like his poise and competitiveness. He's similar to Dallas first-rounder Jack Campbell in terms of mental makeup and work ethic. We covered Gibson and the goalie class pretty extensively, so there isn't much else to say about Gibson other than he's the cream of the USHL crop as far as goalies go, and could carry that over to the entire 2011 class. But, because teams are figuring out more and more that high picks need not be invested in goalies, Gibson could fall into the second round. In 17 USHL games, he is 9-4-3 with a 2.38 GAA and .926 save percentage. He was excellent at the Five Nations in February and if USA is going to win an unprecedented (for USA Hockey) third consecutive gold medal at the World Under-18 Championship next month, Gibson will have to steal the show like Campbell did a year ago in Belarus. Tall order, but he has the potential to do it.

6. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha (USHL)- Along with Victor Rask and Shane McColgan, Ambroz is one of the 2011 draft's most disappointing players. A manchild who emerged several years ago as a physically dominant power winger with high upside as a scorer simply has not progressed and in fact, has regressed in the eyes of many scouts, including Giese. At 6-3, 211 the feeling is that he's already reached his physical peak and isn't going to grow more or get much stronger than he already is. His skating is a major red flag, as he not only lacks first step quickness, but doesn't get up to speed all that well and is constantly trailing the play. He has tremendous hands and a wicked release and powerful shot, but lacks the creativity and sense to get into position to use it as much as he should.

He may have size, but scouts are concerned that he hasn't used it much this season, which is a huge drawback to a player like him given what was expected. There's also an issue of work ethic, which has been said in more than one circle- over the summers, Ambroz has passed on offers to do some elite level developmental work in favor of staying home in Minnesota. If he were an elite product, that would be one thing, but he's got some real holes in his game and putting in the work would have sent the right message to NHL teams. Someone is going to take him pretty high because of the prodigious size and potential upside, but with just 21 goals and 40 points in 51 games for Omaha, so much more was expected. If Ambroz ends up being a bust, it won't come as a surprise for many folks who have followed him. Overrated if anyone is talking about him in the top-30. Probably doesn't even become a legitimate value pick until the mid-3rd round or so.

Jerome has a compilation vid on Ambroz from late last season when he was being viewed as a 1st rounder. Good stuff

7. Mike Paliotta, D U.S. NTDP (USHL)- We really like and respect Paliotta here at B2011DW after watching him two years ago at Choate, but his stock has fallen off a bit this season after he was being projected as a potential first-round pick coming into the campaign. He's big and mobile; at about 6-4, 195 he's got to get stronger and will be an even better skater when he can generate more power in his long, fluid stride. He's solid in his own end and has the look of a strong positional defender at the very least when you factor in his mobility and decent footwork. He's only an average passer and simply hasn't taken that anticipated in the offensive aspects of his game to justify a first-round selection. The second round could also be in jeopardy for him much like what happened with Penguins farmhand and former BU Terrier Brian Strait in 2006- a player who was seen as a solid top-60 pick, but fell to the early third round because of concerns about the offensive upside and a lack of production during his draft year, which incidentally, was also in Ann Arbor with the NTDP. In 24 USHL games, Paliotta has just 4 assists. He's a solid, intelligent kid and is headed to University of Vermont next fall, but the concerns about his puck skills and vision/instincts are going to drop him in our estimation.

8. Destry Straight, C Coquitlam (BCHL)- The first non-USHLer comes to us by way of the BCHL, the league that produced last year's first-rounder Beau Bennett for Pittsburgh. Boston College recruit has nice height (6-1) and hockey skills, but is very slender and not all that strong. He's got a lot of work to do off the ice and is a long-term investment kind of player for whichever team drafts him. He was productive for the Express this season with 26 goals and 67 points in 59 games. The West Vancouver native brings good hands and creativity to the mix as an effective playmaker who is always around the puck, but does not play a very physical game at all mainly because he's a stringbean right now who is physically underdeveloped. He brings some interesting potential to the mix even if he is on the long road to pro hockey.

9. Colten St. Clair, C Fargo (USHL)- Although not very big at 5-11, 190 pounds, St. Clair is strong on his skates and has the ability to get up under bigger guys who try to take runs at him to stay on his feet. He plays a physical style and shows off a good energy level. Ryan Clark, a hockey writer who covers the Fargo Force said that St. Clair has shown some good potential in flashes, but he is still a work in progress overall. Scouts we've talked to are only lukewarm on St. Clair, however and see him as more of a defensive player with limited NHL upside. The Arizona native has the look of a guy who will be a solid NCAA player and journeyman pro in the minor leagues, but simply does not possess the high-end skill set to be a long-term NHL player. At the same time, his effort and energy level is an asset and he could work hard enough to surprise. Longshot, but worth putting in the top-10 for now. Battled injuries this season- tallied 11 goals and 25 points in 39 games playing on the same team as Bruins prospect "the great" Zane Gothberg.

10. Evan Rodrigues, C Georgetown (OJHL)- Skilled little guy who has some real speed and hands, scoring 21 goals and 54 points for the Raiders this season in just 37 games. He's creative and always looking to score, but at 5-10, 170 is not strong and scouts we've talked to consider him to be a pretty soft player. Another undersized player who has missed time to injuries this season, his production in the OJHL is certainly a quality aspect to him- he tallied 20 goals and 51 points last season (in 56 games), so his developmental curve has been on an upward path. Intriguing late-round option and someone could jump up to take him as early as the 4th round.

11. Reid Boucher, LW U.S. NTDP (USHL)- Another small guy who just knows how to put the puck in the net. Led all scorers at the Five Nations in February. Different from Grimaldi in that he lacks Rocco's explosiveness and dynamic element, but uses his quickness, agility and killer instinct to bury chances in close. Has a very quick stick and is able to fight off defenders to get his lumber on the puck and get it on net in tight quarters. High compete level and just doesn't quit on a play even though he's smaller than most of the guys he's going up against. Low center of gravity makes him difficult to knock off stride and he keeps his feet moving. Going to Michigan State and should be a popular and productive player there for the Spartans. Scored 14 goals and 20 points in 24 USHL contests for the Under-18 team this season. As a Sep. 8, 1993 birthdate, one of the youngest players in the 2011 draft.

12. Connor Murphy, D U.S. NTDP (USHL)- If not for a back injury that kept him out for most of the year, Murphy would likely be higher on this list. At 6-3, 200 pounds, and with his NHL bloodlines, he's got plenty of the right attributes NHL teams love, even if he didn't get many games in. He played a very good Ivan Hlinka tourney in August, showing off good skating ability, a powerful shot and good defense in terms of exhibiting proper gap control, an active stick and taking the body. His hockey sense is a bit of a question at this point. He isn't the best player under pressure and in the face of an aggressive forecheck. His durability is also an issue; last season a spleen injury kept him out for extended action (2 games in USHL with Under-17 team) and this season, he only managed 9 total USHL games, but has scored 3 goals and 4 points for the Under-18 squad. He played in the Five Nations and acquitted himself well after being on the shelf for so long. This is the kind of player who is going to go off the board earlier than anticipated because even with the injury concerns, he simply has too much going for him in terms of physical attributes and upside.

13. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP (USHL)-Smallish (5-11, 190) two-way defender is popular on some lists, but we're not among them. Too many of our sources question Russo's overall upside and inability to get much done offensively. As much as you hate to bang on a guy, he just does absolutely nothing for us as someone who lacks the size, speed and creativity to be the guy he's being hyped as: a puck mover with two-way potential in the NHL. He'll go to Notre Dame and perhaps elevate his pro potential there, but this season has been a wash, with just 6 assists in 24 USHL games with the Under-18 team.

14. Matthew Peca, LW Pembroke (CJHL)- Dynamic and hustling little bugger is only 5-9, 165 pounds but plays with a lot of energy and hustle. He scored 26 goals and 72 points for the Pembroke Lumber Kings at a much lower level than most draft prospects, but with his wheels, hockey sense and attitude is one of those guys you root for to achieve an NHL spot one day despite being a longshot. Red Line Report lauded him for his vision and soft hands. Made a name for himself at the World Jr. A Challenge. He was 110th on RLR's March rankings, and given that his coach, Sheldon Keefe, has said that plenty of NHL scouts have come out to see him this season, he should get picked up at some point. He is not related to former NHL player Michael Peca, but plays a similar style. Going to Quinnipiac for college next season and watch for him to be a successful player there given his all-around game and high compete levels.

15. Brennan Serville, D Stouffville (OJHL)- Good-sized defender at 6-3, 180 plays a pretty simple, no-frills game. Uses his body and reach to keep opponents away from the prime scoring areas of the ice. Nothing flashy, just rugged and honest. A good, not great skater; decent enough footwork, and not lumbering or awkward in his movements. Suffered an -ahem- gruesome lower body/groin injury from an errant skate blade at the World Jr. A Challenge and missed a lot of action there because of it but is OK (whew!). He's a University of Michigan recruit and should remind Wolverines fans a lot of former UM defender Mark Mitera. Was originally drafted in the OHL by the Sudbury Wolves but appears pretty committed to going the NCAA route. The Pickering, Ontario native had 3 goals and 30 points in 36 games with the Spirit this season, with a 1-8-9 line in 16 postseason games.

16. Charles Orzetti, LW New Jersey Hitmen (EJHL)- Gigantic winger (6-4, 220) from New Jersey is all raw potential and intriguing potential at this point. The Feb. 1992 birthdate and former Delbarton School standout missed all of last season with an injury and therefore was not drafted, but after 10 goals and 22 points in 29 games in the EJHL, he might get a very late look. Yale recruit is not much of a skater, but plays with an edge and has good hands in close. If he can pick up a few steps and continue playing a hard-nosed, physical game, he has potential as a lower-line player who brings toughness to the mix for his NHL club.

17. Brian Billett, G N.H. Jr. Monarchs (EJHL)- If you followed read B2010DW last season, you know how much we loved Billett. Much to our chagrin, the 6-1 netminder from Maine by way of Florida and South Carolina (his dad was in the Navy) was passed over in the draft after leading the Monarchs to the 2010 EJHL title, and the national Tier II Jr. championship in 2009. Well, he did it again this season- capturing another EJHL championship for the Monarchs and will go to Boston College, whose season ended on a crushing note to Colorado College last night. He's a butterfly goalie who manages to stay calm and composed in big games. This season, he went 19-2-1 with a 1.93 GAA and .930 save percentage. In the playoffs he was even better, going 6-0 with a 1.66 GAA and .950 save percentage. If we were on an NHL staff he would have been picked in 2010, so the question is- will some team step up to grab him. It isn't like he's a small guy a la John Muse and since 2009, he's gone 40-4-4 for Sean Tremblays powerhouse Monarchs, but the thing is- despite not seeing a lot of shots, he still makes the big stops and keeps his save percentage above 93 percent- that's remarkable for a team that doesn't give up a lot of scoring opportunities. He's a solid citizen and deserves a chance- we're still believers.

Mock draft results: More fantasy than reality, but fun

Participated in a seven-round mock NHL draft last month on Hockey's Future Boards, hosted by the member called "Cup" as the GM of the Boston Bruins. Cup does this every year and he tries to bring in as many informed folks as he can via invite to make the picks.

You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.

Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.

Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.

So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.

Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)

Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.

Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.



Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.

Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.

Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.

Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.

Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.





Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.

Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.


Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube


Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.

Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.


Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!

Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal


Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.

Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.

Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.

TSN/Bob McKenzie's Midseason Draft Rankings Released

TSN's mid-season top-60 was released tonight.

To read them yourself go to the TSN's website- they've got 'em.

Bob is the media master of such things. He has an unparalleled network of NHL scouting sources and an interesting system for creating a draft range for each player that is strictly by the numbers and not subjective. He explains it at the beginning of his post, so no reason to re-hash it here.

Adam Larsson is not a surprise at the top of the list, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at No. 2? Now that is an intriguing twist!

Gabriel Landeskog at 3 is about where he should project to go, but because of the intangibles, there's always the chance that a team could take him in the top-two. Or, if he doesn't come back from the high ankle sprain, he might go a tad lower.

Sean Couturier dropping to 4th...his WJC is primarily responsible for that, but to be honest, he's been playing very well since returning to the QMJHL, so expect him to rebound a bit.

Dougie Hamilton at 5 two spots ahead of Ryan Murphy at 7 jives with what my own NHL sources have been telling me. Those 6-4 guys who can skate always have more appeal than the highly skilled smaller guys, which is what Murphy is. Throw in Hamilton's production (38 pts) and it's a bit of a no-brainer, at least right now. We'll see how the season finishes out.

Ryan Strome at 6th- again, no real surprise. His production and creativity/skill have bolted him up the lists since coming out like gangbusters to start.

Tyler Biggs in the top-10. Central had him fifth. Power forwards like Biggs tend to bring out the NHL teams, so he might end up going higher than most think.

Jonas Brodin at 12th overall is another surprise. All-around Swedish defenseman doesn't have the offensive game of Larsson, but he's one of those guys who's developmental curve is on the up and up-- in time, he could become a lot better than people think based on what he's shown thus far. Interesting selection there...too bad he wasn't in Buffalo.

I'm keeping a close eye on Scott Mayfield at 25th...if the Bruins were to draft a forward with the Toronto pick and still have their own selection later in the round, he makes sense there for them in terms of upside, even if he's not getting much production in the USHL on a cellar-dweller.

David Musil's precipitous drop to 27th is not surprising...but Daniel Catenacci at 30 is. Former top overall OHL priority selection is highly skilled but very small. His 20 goals, 50 points is no doubt keying his surge higher than people thought to start the season, when he wasn't projected to have all that high of a pro ceiling in certain circles.

Seth Ambroz at 50 is falling after being thought of as a consensus top-30 pick to start the year. If he keeps failing to put up points, he could drop lower. Mike Paliotta at 59 is also a surprise, but the lack of points/offensive upside is likely a reason. It's kind of like what happened with Brian Strait five years ago...good player, but just not productive enough.

Overall, though-- this is a solid list. And, you can't argue with McKenzie's methodology.

It's sure to keep people talking through the winter months until the next round of lists and rankings come out.

Central Scouting's mid-season rankings: North American skaters pt. 2

With the background appropriately addressed in the previous post, we'll jump right into the snapshot of Central Scouting's North American skaters for the first round.

At 11th, Ty Rattie deserves to be there, and you could definitely make a case for the diminutive but supremely talented Portland Winterhawks forward being inside the top-10. In talking to one NHL scout out west, he's been most impressed with Rattie's reinvention of his game. Last season, Rattie was a one-dimensional gongshow who spent a lot of his time trying moves that worked in bantam but weren't happening in the Dub. This year, he's taken his skill and creativity to a whole new level.

Former New England prep player Zack Phillips is 12th on the list and while his production is nice for Saint John, his skills aren't much to write home about. His skating is average and while Phillips has nice hands and instincts, he seems a little high here, as you can make the chicken and egg argument with him as it pertains to linemates and a strong team. On one of the weaker clubs in the QMJHL, it's not likely that Phillips would put up the points, because he's just not as creative as you would like. Good kid and player, but just not someone I would have here ahead of say, Ryan Strome for example.

J.T. Miller is a solid option at 13 as another U.S. NTDP product who has size and offensive ability, even if he hasn't been scoring the way he was projected this season. But with Miller's size, skating, sense (and spirit) I would imagine he'll be a solid 1st-round pick come June. He's an Ohio kid who played his minor hockey in the Pittsburgh area, and should become a fixture on the next couple of USA WJC squads coming down the pipeline soon.

Saskatoon Blades rearguard Duncan Siemens has been rated inside the top-10 in some circles and I'm not buying that. I think Central's ranking is a little closer to reality at 14 and he might actually go around 20. Big, mobile and tough, Siemens hasn't been able to put up the points you would expect. I love his toughness and defensive game, but there's just not a lot of upside with this guy. Of course, with Brayden Schenn now cruising through the slot for Saskatoon, Siemens might see a boost in his assist totals. But still, not a huge fan of this player, and talk of him cracking the top-10 is insane, in my opinion. There are so many other better options out there.

Next up at 15 is another B2011DW fave: USHL defender Scott Mayfield. Now, if the Bruins were to draft a power forward with the Toronto pick, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them go with this raw, but very projectable two-way blue liner with size and toughness in Mayfield with their own 1st-round pick if they keep it. I've been told that the St. Louis native (who's committed to Denver University, but whose OHL draft rights are owned by the Kitchener Rangers) is stagnating a little because he plays for a bad team and isn't getting a lot of coaching with the Youngstown Phantoms. I was also told that Mayfield and B2011DW sleeper Mike McKee formed a wicked pairing at the NHL Research and Development Camp in Toronto way back in August. He's a good skater with a booming shot and an edge. Some sources have him way underrated, but I think 15 is about right based on what I know. We'll see what reality entails come June.

Portland puck mover Joe Morrow checks in at 16, and the Winterhawks will once again be well-represented at the NHL draft. He's got nice size, can really fire the puck and teams were hoping he would stay under the radar this season. As Dana Carvey used to say on the old SNL shows when he was impersonating President Bush 41: "Not gonna do it!"

London center Vladislav Namestnikov is a solid option at 17-- he's got bloodlines (father Evgeny played in the NHL and his uncle is longtime forward and Stanley Cup champion with Detroit Slava Kozlov), skill, creativity and has come on strong for the Knights after a slow start. Like Landeskog, he has barely a trace of an accent because he was raised in the U.S. and Canada for most of his young life while his father was bouncing between the NHL, AHL and IHL before returning to Russia. Bruins prospect Jared Knight raved to this blog about Namestnikov's skill and creativity, and declared that he'd be a 1st-round pick back in early December.

Now things get a little iffy. Oshawa Generals center Boone Jenner is ahead of Niagara's Ryan Strome, who is having one outstanding year. Nothing against Jenner-- his skating is improved and he always works his bag off. That said, I find his offensive upside more limited than Strome's. In fact, not entirely sure why Stome is so low on this list. He's closer to 10 than 20, but this is par for course with Central's public rankings and is sure to be a source for debate on the internet message boards this week.

At 20, Jenner's Oshawa teammate Nicklas Jensen comes in. The Great Dane has been playing much more like the moniker of late. I was in person to see him rack up a 4-point afternoon and was impressed not only with the offense, but his play in the defensive zone. He's legit around this spot, though may slide a little lower. But if he keeps playing like he has of late, not too much lower.

From 21-30 there are some interesting players to note:

One of my sources is not all that high on Barrie (OHL) center Mark Scheifele, while others like the big pivot's game. Don't know enough to draw the line in the sand, but the hockey sense and hands are said to be sticking points, so we'll see. Hard to believe he's ahead of Prince Albert's Mark McNeill, though, who is 22, and scoring at a point-per-game pace on a bad offensive club. McNeill is another guy NHL teams were hoping to steal later, but given that he can score and fight, that ain't happening. He's also much father along in his physical development than most 18-year-olds.

I like Tomas Jurco at 24 and Rocco Grimaldi at 25 is interesting. No doubting Grimaldi's skill or dynamic offensive dimension, but man, the kid is t-i-n-y.
His listed height/weight of 5-6/163 is probably a tad generous. Someone will draft Grimaldi, but I would be shocked if it's in the 1st round. Big risk there.

Defenseman David Musil is in free-fall at 26, but it makes sense based on what we've been hearing all year. Big and talented, but doesn't have the offensive upside you want in a top-two, and hasn't played with the kind of intensity/passion scouts like for a shutdown guy who will make his bones in his own end most likely.

Jamie Oleksiak is gi-normous, but probably overrated at 27. Who doesn't love 6-7 d-men with condor-like wingspans, but he's much more Hal Gill than he is Zdeno Chara or Tyler Myers.

Seth Ambroz at 28 is not shocking at all if you've talked to the right people and paid attention to his mediocre statistical output, which in this case, tells the story. He's the classic case of the player who draws raves for his physical prowess and ability years before his draft season, but never really progresses. Someone will take a flier on Ambroz earlier than he should go given the campaign he's had in the USHL, but there's some real bust factor with this guy. He simply doesn't work as hard as he should. And the lack of skating/speed/footwork is a major turnoff with so many big forwards in this class who can actually get up and down the ice well.

Matt Puempel at 29 is Central's Jeff Skinner- What the F*** ? (WTF?) moment for me. OK- I get that he started slowly (after a season-opening hat trick, that is) and I get that Puempel is on a pretty bad team. But ever since Ryan Spooner left, Puempel's play has trended upward. Puempel's not the most explosive guy, nor is he the most consistent or focused, but when it comes to scoring goals, he just knows how to get it done. Those guys are gold, and there's no way, none-- that Puempel will last to 20 let alone 29 in the upcoming draft. And you can take that to the bank!

Mario Lucia of Wayzata H.S. in Minnesota is 30th and I suppose that's fine. I would have Shane Prince or Rickard Rakell there but that's just me. Lucia's got some raw upside, but isn't expected to be a horse the way Nick Bjugstad was coming out of the Minnesota H.S. ranks last season.

Ok, that's a wrap on the first-round. I'll be back later tonight with a look at some guys who dropped lower than expected, some sleepers and a look at the goalies.

Should be up either during or just after the Bruins game, so check back in. And as always, comments welcome!

Central Scouting Preliminary Rankings: The USHL Pt. 1

Back from the Thanksgiving vacation in the non-hockey hotbed of the great plains. The compressed travel and visitation schedule was a bear, but I still had time to track down a Bruins prospect (Zane Gothberg) and a scout or three to talk about the USHL rankings put out by Central Scouting a few weeks back.

At the top of the list is power winger Tyler Biggs of the U.S. NTDP Under-18 team. Twitter debates with other draft pundits aside, and I'll admit to not being above the fray when it comes to hyperbole at times, this is the kind of player who because of his size, ability and natural aggressiveness and snarl, should go higher than some think because NHL teams do love their power forwards with legitimate toughness.

Red Line Report scout Max Giese has been following Biggs for several seasons now, and had this to say about the son of former Cincinnati Cylcones (IHL) standout Don Biggs:

"He's right up there (at the top of the USHL list) and could be the best choice of this bunch to be a good pro," Giese told B2011DW. "He's a fast, mean, physical in-your-face guy with some leadership qualities. If there's a knock on him it's that he doesn't have the real skills or finesse to his game, and he doesn't always bring that competitiveness on every shift. The consistency is not always there."

Biggs has six goals and 10 points in 19 games with the U-18 team; his 68 penalty minutes leads the squad by a significant margin.

Again, he has a tendency to sleepwalk through games sometimes, but if he gets going, he has the ability to dictate the flow and tempo with his ferocity. If he brought it on a more consistent basis, he'd probably be rated a lot higher on most boards. Still, don't be surprised to see him go somewhere around pick 20 because of the potential upside.

"We're keeping an eye on Biggs," said one NHL scout for a Western Conference team. "He's got the size, is a pretty good skater and has that natural toughness that you either have or you don't-- a coach can't instill that in a guy. We like the bloodlines, too. This is a kid who has some real potential even if its raw. Would we like to see him turn it on more? Yes. But, overall, we think he's going to be a player."

Jonathan "J.T." Miller is second and this is a heck of a hockey player on skills and talent alone. Said by one scout to be above average to exceptional in just about every measurable aspect of the game, his production hasn't been commensurate with the kind of player Miller is.

The Pittsburgh area native has been on a high developmental trajectory for several years, and given his good size (6-1, 198) and high talent level, it's hard to see him slip all that far down the draft boards in the first round. At the same time, with two goals and 15 points in 19 games, he's capable of more.

"He's playing well and you can chalk it up to bounces not going his way," said Giese. "But at some point, you have to ask, 'Where is the production?'"

Seth Ambroz is next at third on Central's list, and the New Prague, Minnesota native has long been seen as one of the better power forward prospects available in the 2011 draft.

"When you hear scouts talking about a player who has 'plateau'd' then you should open up a book and see Ambroz's picture there," the NHL scout said. "He's essentially the same player he was a couple of years ago: real nice size, hands, not-so-good wheels and a whole lot of question marks about the desire and work ethic."

Now in his third season with the Omaha Lancers, the 6-3, 200-pound winger isn't tearing it up by any stretch of the imagination. His five goals and nine points in 12 games is decidedly pedestrian and only good for fourth on his team's scoring list. He's behind the passed over in 2010 former St. Sebastian's star Tommy O'Regan in scoring, even.

"Some guys still like him," Giese said. "He's very difficult to move from in front of the net and has an excellent release, but his skating hasn't improved. And, I wish he would do more in the corners. Too often, he's standing around in front of the net and letting his 5-8 teammates do all the work for loose pucks in the corners."

Even with the criticisms, Ambroz has likely done enough in past seasons that some NHL team will step up to the plate, believing that they can harness his size and ability effectively enough to get him to play with more of a sense of urgency.

"He will play in the NHL and he'll score some goals, too," said Giese. "But he hasn't put in the work; he's not anywhere near the player he should be right now."

After Ambroz, Youngstown Phantoms defenseman Scott Mayfield is next on the list. As far as raw, projectable talent goes, you won't find many defensemen in this draft with the size, skating and offensive potential that Mayfield has. Unfortunately, he plays on a poor team and isn't getting the kind of coaching that is allowing him to effectively address his flaws, which means downgrades for some NHL teams scouting him.

"(Mayfield's) a second-rounder for some," said Giese. "But he's exactly what the pros are looking for: great size (6-4) with still a lot of weight to add to that frame, really good skater. I'm not saying he's Jay Bouwmeester, but with that size and skating combination, I'd say he's right up there with (Niagara defenseman) Dougie Hamilton."

One thing that helps Mayfield's case is the fact that a lot of NHL scouts got a nice look at him at the Research and Development Camp back in late August.

"He opened up some eyes there in Toronto," said one NHL scout who attended. "He's got that long, powerful stride, makes the good first pass and has a nice reach. He's raw, but you can coach the flaws out of him. You can't coach that big frame and edge he plays with."

It will be very interesting to see where Mayfield goes in the 2011 draft, because opinions are pretty divergent on him. Like Derek Forbort last year, he's got the size and upside, though Giese feels that Mayfield doesn't quite have Forbort's polish. Still, Mayfield, like Forbort last season, won't be at the top of many draft discussions when it comes to defensemen, but does bring interesting upside that will keep people talking. His OHL rights are owned by the high-powered Kitchener Rangers, but he has at least up until now, seemed intent on playing out the string in the USHL to protect his NCAA eligibility. The St. Louis native is committed to the University of Denver for next season.

The small, but dynamic Rocco Grimaldi rounds out the USHL top-five. As far as skills go, Grimaldi belongs in the top-10 in terms of pure talent, but at barely 5-6 (if that), his size will drop him because he brings too much risk to take as high as his ability would normally allow.

The SoCal native and North Dakota recruit is a fascinating story, because he has the ability and a huge heart that you would think should help him overcome the significant size concerns.

"He has the passion and drive that reminds me of Sidney Crosby," said Giese. "He always expects himself to make the play, to put the puck in the net. His dedication is there, too: he's a rinkrat and gym rat and does all the things you want from a player. "

Giese then related how Grimaldi struggled in a recent game against the Chicago Steel, in which he was effectively neutralized by an effective defense that didn't have any real big, physical "monsters" on the blue line, which raises concerns of what Grimaldi will face at the pro level.

"I think he'll be a great college player and fan favorite," Giese said of Grimaldi, who leads the U-18 team in scoring with 16 goals and 26 points in as many games. "But I think his growing pains at the pro level will be the same ones Nathan Gerbe's had. It's a concern when you're looking at drafting a player like him with an early pick."

We'll wrap up the Central Scouting series with Part 2 of the USHL, taking you through some of the rest of the list (but not all) and a look at a couple of the goalies.

USHL notes: Not a great year in the "U"

Red Line's Max Giese also briefly talked about the USHL and what he saw at the Fall Classic earlier this month:

"After (Scott) Mayfield and (Seth (Ambroz) there's a huge dropoff," he said. "Then you get to (Colten) St. Clair, and after him, there's another huge dropoff."

Youch.

But, let's take a look at these guys and what the early returns are on them. Giese has been a supporter of Mayfield's from jump street, and that's big because if Mayfield ends up going top-10, then you'll be able to look back at what Max was saying about him over the summer and realize he had the inside track on this big, mobile PMD from St. Louis. Ambroz is someone Giese has been less impressed with, and his reasons are pretty much the same I'm hearing from other scouts in the community: simply put, Ambroz hasn't progressed. He's essentially the same player he was a couple of years ago when he was bulling his way through the USHL as a manchild. Only problem is-- now the physical gap has decreased. And, he's in for a real awakening when he heads off to Minnesota and the NCAA next year.

Here are some snippets from Max's reports he filed and which appear in the October issue of Red Line Report. For more, you can go to www.redlinereport.com -- it's a pay service, but you can't beat the depth of analysis the RLR staff provides every month.

Scott Mayfield, RD Youngstown 6-4, 185 14 Oct. 92

A huge workhorse on the backend. A commanding skater with a long, powerful stride. Shows terrific lateral agility and strong edgework...

(And that only scratches the surface of the writeup)

Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha 6-3, 210 3 Apr. 93

Heavy power forward with a nose for the net. He's the same skater he was two years ago-- hasn't improved his quickness, still labors to accelerate and struggles to gain separation. ...

(Again- there's more, but it's proprietary information, so that's about all I can do)

Colten St. Clair, RC Fargo 5-11, 180 22 Nov. 92

Played with a healthy chip on his shoulder and is embracing a leadership role this year. Made opponents' blood boil with his tenacious puck pursuit and by finishing his checks...

Giese said that two players from the USHL available in next year's 2012 NHL draft are worth paying attention to this season: Sioux City defender Jordan Schmaltz (6-3) a smooth, cerebral puck-mover who just could be one of those special talents with the size and skills to be a high pick, and Latvian forward prodigy Zemgus Girgensons, a big, skilled creative center who is already having an immediate impact with expansion Dubuque Fighting Saints.

I saw Girgensons last spring when he was the best player on an overmatched Green Mountain Glades team in the EJHL-- they got manhandled by the Charlie Coyle and Chris Wagner-led South Shore Kings, but Girgensons was noticeable, and he's a smart kid who's on the fast track to be at the University of Vermont next year.

The kids looked good in Montreal

Just a quick post on a few thoughts about last night's 4-2 win by the Boston Bruins over the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.

First of all, Nathan Horton has been all smiles since arriving in Boston, and he gave an indication of what could be in store (provided he can remain healthy) when he unloaded that big league heavy wrister past Carey Price just 1:33 in. Regardless of how his NHL career has gone, he was the third overall pick for a reason, and you saw one of the key factors of that selection with that shot. When he gets up his head of steam like he did, and has the time and space to generate the unreal power and torque on the shot, it becomes exceedingly difficult for any goalie to stop.

Tyler Seguin assisted on Johnny Boychuk's goal (and Boychuk has looked like a total stud in the camp sessions so far-- he looks like he picked up a step since last spring, and is really putting in a visible effort), and was OK-- solid-- but not spectacular. He's obviously learning, but didn't look at all out of place last night. I've said it before and will again-- he'll be in Boston simply because he's too good to go back to junior and the Bruins will want to control his development as opposed to giving up control to the Plymouth Whalers. Nothing against his junior team, of course, but Seguin is the crown jewel of Boston's future, so they'll want to exert as much influence on him as they can. Sending him back to the OHL risks stagnation and they won't allow that. UPDATE-- I've seen some real harsh criticisms of Seguin on the internet today and I honestly don't get it. He wasn't that bad, although admittedly, I was watching a stream. But, I think the critiques are once again a product of the enormous expectations. I thought some of the same criticisms I saw from people of him in the rookie games were over the top, so I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out from here.

Matt Bartkowski continues to impress. Logged over 18 minutes of ice time and finished the night with a +2 rating. Now that I'm watching him closely, I think he could see NHL games in Boston this year if injuries take a toll. Bartkowski is a guy this blogger wasn't thrilled with when the deal with Florida went down, but I have to eat crow and admit to doing a complete 180 on it, especially with Dennis Seidenberg signed to a cap-friendly extension. Peter Chiarelli and his scouts deserve a lot of credit for both Seids and Bartkowski, who looks like a 3-4 year pro out there-- not a player just a few months removed from patrolling the Ohio St. blue line.

Adam McQuaid was also good last night and he's going to be the seventh defenseman and NHL understudy a la Boychuk last season. Would rather he played in Providence, but the B's can't slide him past the rest of the league on waivers-- someone would snap him up quickly. So, he'll sit, but the moment someone on 'D' goes out with injury, he'll be in, and he looks to have built on what was some solid spot duty last season.

Nice to see Ryan Spooner still with the team. He's still pretty small, although it was evident to me that he's been working hard in the offseason to build up his strength. There is no denying his skills/talent and he'll go back to Peterborough soon because there are too many guys in Boston for him to have a legitimate shot at making the team right now. But make no mistake-- the longer he's around to get in some exhibition games and be around the team, the better his confidence and perspective will be going back to junior.

Tuukka Rask isn't a "kid" at 23 anymore, but his performance last night has to have Bruins fans giddy with what could be a huge year for him. He's been lights-out in camp and last night, he made a mockery of Montreal's goalies. The more you see Rask, the less important, you come to realize, is the need for Boston to spend a high draft pick on a goalie. Obviously, if there is a value selection sitting there in June, they'll consider it, but with Hutch just starting up on the pro side, and sixth-rounder Zane Gothberg on the five-year plan, that pretty much frees up the B's to focus 2011 on shoring up the defense.

That's why I'm labeling the 2011 draft watch the "year of the blue liner" in anticipation that the B's will add at least one high-end talent on defense, and probably several others with raw, but bankable potential. Of course, don't expect them to keep all five of their picks in the first three rounds in the process, but they're going to make sure they come away with some upside and skill at the position.

Although I've seen him ranked all over the map in the pre-season, I'm betting that Youngstown's Scott Mayfield will make a run as one of the higher-end guys in this draft. He's got the size, mobility, intelligence and a little snarl to really appeal to scouts. Kitchener's Ryan Murphy is another hyped kid and rightfully so with his skating and puck skills, but the Bruins already have five sub-6-foot prospects on 'D' (seven when you include the two in Boston's top-six in Andrew Ference and Matt Hunwick) Will they really spend a high pick on Murphy (assuming he's available)? That's the question he'll have to answer this season.

And of course, Adam Larsson is the big prize on defense-- a future franchise cornerstone for whichever team finishes last overall. Yes, before the season has begun, I'm predicting that Larsson will be selected ahead of the likes of Sean Couturier and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, neither of whom have the sustained and bankable stardom that John Tavares had in '09 when Victor Hedman could have been the No. 1 pick. And, don't forget about David Musil, either. The Vancouver Giants star has a world of size and talent, but has more to prove this year than any other player in the top-five because some warts on his game have already been identified by scouts (namely intensity and decision-making), so he'll be closely scrutinized. Still, with that kind of raw talent and superior bloodlines, hard to imagine he'll slip very far if at all.

Other guys to watch: slick, skilled Russian d-man Andrei Pedan, who is with the OHL's Guelph Storm, a pair of big and talented but raw players in Dougie Hamilton (Niagara- OHL) and Dillon Simpson (University of North Dakota) and smallish puck mover Adam Clendening, whom the Bruins will get a lot of viewings in over at Commonwealth Ave. There's also Scott Harrington of London, who has size and skill, but who right now isn't being projected as having a lot of offensive upside from the scouts I've talked to. Would be nice to see him exceed expectations and put up some numbers and jump into the race as a legit. candidate to be a No. 1 or high-end No. 2 NHL defenseman.

Should be a great year to focus on d-men and see which cream rises to the top!

B2011DW's Official 2010-11 USHL/U.S. college/U.S. juniors Watch List

I'm here with the last of the preseason watch lists. I hope you have enjoyed this series, and be sure to look back on these posts when the season is over, as it will be interesting to see which players lived up to the hype, which ones didn't and those who weren't even listed, but broke into the mainstream with standout performances.

I had the good fortune of having a very productive talk with Max Giese, formerly of McKeen's who is now a Red Line Report scout and covers the USHL and U.S. colleges and even some Canadian juniors. Giese is extremely astute and knows a great deal about the players featured on this particular watch list. He has kindly given his permission for me to quote him extensively on his preseason opinions of the top players projected to come out of the collegiate and junior circuit this year, and like me, Giese is ready for the season to get underway.

The USHL has a trio of very talented players with a lot of size and skill-- two wingers and a defenseman-- in Seth Ambroz, Tyler Biggs and Scott Mayfield, plus the normal contingent of U.S. NTDP prospects who are always in the draft mix in the first few rounds and beyond. Ambroz is the big name, but Mayfield may be the best of anyone coming out of the 'U' this year and has a decision to make as to whether he goes the NCAA route with Denver University, or goes to the OHL with the Kitchener Rangers.

As far as U.S. collegians go, Boston University's Adam Clendening is top dog on this list, but one notable omission is skilled two-way North Dakota defenseman Dillon Simpson (son of former NHL sniper and Bruin killer Craig Simpson) is actually ranked higher on some lists I've seen (notably Red Line Report, who had Simpson 19th in August). But because I have yet to see Simpson and have not been able to find anyone who actually has seen him, I don't have him in the top-10 even though he probably very much should be based on some of the preliminary rankings go. As soon as I or someone I know gets eyes on Simpson, I'll post a scouting report on him.

In eight days, I'll be in Boston checking out the B's prospects vs. the young Islanders, and then the rest of the Bruins vets when they report for the first weekend of main camp. Before we know it, the NHL season will be in full swing, and we can look forward to tracking the progress of those 1st and 2nd-round picks Toronto and Minnesota owe Boston.

But first, here's the last of our unfinished summer business...enjoy!

1. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha Lancers (USHL)-- At 6-3, 205 pounds, Ambroz is a man among boys and has been the same physical presence now for about three years. A formidable power forward in the making, Ambroz is very strong and has the kind of wicked shot and physical game that should be highly appealing to NHL clubs. Now entering his third season for Omaha in the USHL, he should put up some gaudy numbers provided he stays healthy as a primer for the University of Minnesota next year. Ambroz is not without some faults, however. He's got a pretty slow first step and lacks the kind of balance and agility you want in a pro winger. According to some, he tends to take the summers off, and hasn't really addressed the lack of quickness on his skates. Not only is he a notoriously slow starter when it comes to breaking out from a standstill, but that also applies to his play at the start of the season as well, so scouts will be watching early.

"His biggest issue is that he really lacks quickness out of the gate," Giese told B2011DW. "It's an issue that most expected him to work on, and in the three years I've been watching him, I haven't really seen a lot of improvement in, so I think it will be something scouts focus on. He's one of those guys the game comes pretty easy for and he plays effectively at both ends of the rink. He's more of a shooter than a playmaker at this stage of his development."

Even with the initial burst concerns, Ambroz still is a prime candidate to go in the top-half of the opening round in his home state next June, and if he has the kind of big production that is expected of him, you might see him crack the top-10.

2. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)-- The St. Louis native's stock shot up a bit with NHL scouts last month when he went to Toronto to participate in the inaugural Research and Development Camp and formed a formidable pairing with Mike McKee. He's got a lot of mass to pack onto his 6-4 frame, but he moves extremely well and shows some nice polish at both ends of the ice. Although committed to Denver, you could see Mayfield instead go to the OHL to join powerhouse Kitchener in the 11-12 campaign, so that will be an interesting development to watch.

"Mayfield's had a mountain of improvement," Giese said of having seen Mayfield from the beginning of his USHL career a year ago. "Everytime you see him, you notice that he's a really good skater and has nice offensive skills. I like that he's assertive with the puck; he came into Youngstown and was running their power play from the get-go and playing about 30 minutes a night for them in all situations."

Mayfield's size and mobility are of obvious interest to NHL teams, but the fact that he can play both defense and generate offense is going to see him off the board early in June if he continues to progress. "I think he's the best USHL defenseman since John Carlson," said Giese. "He's more advanced defensively than Carlson was (in his draft year), but not quite as skilled offensively."

3. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- You may not have heard much about this power winger in the making, but if Biggs can live up to the tantalizing potential he flashed last season, he could end up going in the top half of the NHL draft next summer. At 6-2, 205, he'll add more muscle to his frame, but has the size and strength to be a horse along the boards. Skill-wise, he's a solid stickhandler and has an NHL-caliber shot already, with a quick release and a lot of power on it. He's very physical and uses his size and strength to intimidate opponents. The biggest drawback for him, and likely the reason that there hasn't been more buzz on him thus far is the fact that he's been pretty inconsistent and doesn't always bring his best to every situation.

"He can flat-out dominate with his skills and physical play," Giese said. "The problem is-- he turns it on and off. When the switch goes on, he's often the best player on the ice. When the switch is off, you don't notice him."

Biggs has the hockey bloodlines, too; he's the son of former NHL journeyman and AHL/IHL Cincinnati Cyclones scoring ace Don Biggs, and although born in Binghamton, N.Y. was raised in southern Ohio.

"When he's on his game, he's really strong," said Giese. "I've seen him hurt older kids; he knocked out (Anaheim Ducks prospect) Kevin Lind in a fight last year. He's almost underappreciated in the NTDP because they don't fight there all that much."

Interestingly enough, one of Biggs's three fights last season (in addition to Lind) came against Mayfield. With the snarl and the skill, if Biggs can be a consistent force this season, then the buzz on him will be palpable as he rides that wave into the first round.

4. J.T. Miller, C U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Talented center from Eastern Ohio and the Pittsburgh Hornets developmental organization is highly-ranked, but a lot is riding for him in his draft year. If Ambroz and Biggs are the hulking, physical power forward types, Miller is a more cerebral, skill player with a well-rounded game, but who does not project as a huge point getter in the pros. At 6-1, 190 pounds he has nice size with room to fill out and is a good skater. He comes from the same region of the country that fellow 2011 prospect Brandon Saad does, and the two competed against one another as youths.

"With me it's all about preferences," Giese said when asked about Miller. "He's in the group with Biggs, but he's more of a finesse two-way guy and not a physical or dominant shutdown center. He's a skilled two-way forward and there's some upside there."

5. Mike Paliotta, D U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- The Westport, Conn. native and former Choate Rosemary Hall standout left home for Ann Arbor and the national program last year and it's paying off for him, as he's done well against the bigger, stronger, more skilled competition in the USHL not found in New England prep ranks these days. At 6-3, he's still filling out, but skates real well and is fluid, with a long stride and very good balance, agility and the footwork. He had a tough transition early on, but progressed well on the Under-17 team last year and looks like a solid first-round pick in the second half if he continues to develop. He's probably not going to be a big point getter at the next level, but his skills will see him drafted early. Paliotta will return to New England next year, when he joins Kevin Sneddon's Vermont Catamounts program in the Hockey East.

"I saw him in late February and he was by far the best defenseman on the ice," Giese said, noting the major improvement from the start of the year. "He's big, is a rangy skater and has a good stick; he can make that first pass. He doesn't have the tantalizing upside that Derek Forbort did, but I think that once the top defenders go in the draft, NHL teams picking later in the first round will identify this guy as someone who can help."

6. Adam Clendening, D Boston University (HE)-- The first NCAA entry on this list (and again-- note the Dillon Simpson caveat above) is a skilled defender who, if he were a few inches taller, would likely carry a better draft projection. Listed at 5-11 and 190-pounds, the size won't be an issue for him in the NCAA this year and he should complement David Warsofsky nicely as far as bringing offense from the blue line goes. The New York native is a solid skater who may not possess elite speed, but can move and turn well. His best attributes are his passing and puck skills; he can put the biscuit anywhere it needs to go and sees the ice extremely well. A polished player who did well for USA at the Under-18 championship last spring, winning a gold medal in the process, you should probably see an immediate impact from him on the Terrier blue line. I brought up 2010 second-round pick and fellow NTDP grad Justin Faulk asked for a comparison with Clendening to Giese and he had this interesting insight on the two:

"Clendening can't pound it like Faulk can," he said referring to the diminutive Minnesotan's rocket shot. "But he can hit seams and thread the needle creatively. Clendening isn't as physical as Faulk and is more of a player who will be in proper position and use his stick. I expect immediate success for him at BU."

7. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA)-- The younger brother of '09 Florida second-rounder Drew Shore, Nick is a different player from his older brother in that he doesn't have the size or quite the pure hockey skills, but is more of a mature and intelligent player at this stage of his development. A hard-working and productive graduate of the NTDP, he's ready to take on the college hockey challenge there in his native state of Colorado and could make a splash right away because of his advanced approach and hockey intellect.

"He has really good hands and hockey sense," Giese said of the younger Shore. "Because of his intelligence and poise with the puck, I could see him moving into the first round if he has the kind of season I think he's capable of at DU."

8. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Cut from the Clendening mold, this smallish but skilled defenseman sees the ice well and is an adept passer. He doesn't have great size (6-0, 180), nor is he a blazing skater, but because he's strong on his skates and possesses the right instincts for the game, he's able to move the puck and play a solid two-way game. He'll quarterback the Under-18 team's power play this year, but according to Giese is more of a gap and stick defender as opposed to a physical, hitting one. Russo could be a second- or third-round pick in June, and will have to make his money on the international scene this year to raise his profile.

9. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HE)-- Small but skilled offensive dynamo will infuse some excitement into a Terriers team that is just two seasons removed from a national championship. Another NTDP product and member of that gold medal Under-18 team last spring, Nieto has explosive speed and production potential, but doesn't always bring it on every shift. He'll have to prove his consistency and is in a pretty good situation to do just that.

10. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- A tall, athletic goalie (6-3) who has reportedly improved his technique considerably over the last several seasons, Gibson is in position to move rapidly up the draft boards if he can consistently demonstrate his prowess between the pipes given that Jack Campbell is now in the OHL. He has a compact butterfly and moves well laterally, staying square to the shooter and remaining patient. He's going to have to earn the playing time and then perform to get himself into the first round, but he has the physical and mental chops to do it.

"He has ice in his veins," Giese said. "You can't teach a goalie to be composed in big games or make huge saves when his team needs him the most, so he's got that going for him in addition to the skill."

Others of note:

Dillon Simpson, D University of North Dakota (WCHA)-- We'll post more on him as the season progresses, but with the skill and blood lines, this kid could turn some heads for the draft.

Zac Larraza LW U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Big, lanky kid came to Ann Arbor from Arizona with high expectations and hasn't quite met them yet. Described by one scout as "all arms and legs," he has a lot of physical maturing to do, but skates well and brings a good skill level to the table. If he can put it all together this year and produce, you could see him make a run up the draft boards.

Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern University (HE)-- The Huskies are mining the Toronto area (see: McKee, Mike) for some gems, and this 6-7, 220-pounder who comes by way of Sioux Falls of the USHL is raw, but has some intriguing potential. The wingspan is gi-normous as one would expect for someone of Hal Gill's height, but he also moves pretty well for such a big man (less speed, but effective edgework). He's got a little puck skills, but is a work in progress who needs to improve speed of decisions and bring a more consistent physical presence.

Mike Mersch, LW University of Wisconsin (WCHA)-- Sound all-around winger isn't going to dazzle, but has good hands and a knack for making plays. He needs to get stronger, and that will come in time, but thinks the game well and how his draft goes will be largely dependent on how Mike Eaves uses him as a freshman.

Frankie Simonelli, D University of Wisconsin (WCHA)-- Another small, skilled defender who is a good four-way skater and can move the puck well. The Illinois native gets lost in the shuffle a bit, but is a strong two-way defender and has some interesting upside.

Cason Hohmann, RW Cedar Rapids (USHL)-- Tiny but highly skilled energy forward had a fine Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team USA, but may get passed over in draft because of concerns about size, lack of explosive jump. He's instinctive, feisty, has terrific hands and can really finish, but will need to put up huge points this year to hear his name called. Boston University recruit will be in Beantown for the 11-12 season.

Rocco Grimaldi, C U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Another extremely small, skilled forward, Grimaldi is the latest in the wave of NHL prospects from Southern California. He's dangerous and productive, but is also an outstanding skater. That gives him an edge when determining whether an NHL team will spend a draft pick on a player who is so undersized.