Now that the 2011 NHL Draft is in the books, it's time to assess each team's draft class based on what we know now.
The analysis is subjective and limited at the same time. There will be some picks who look great right now who will go on to have a minimal or no impact, just as there are those who don't look like a whole lot of anything but will pick up their developmental curve and become NHL players, perhaps even stars.
However, given what we have to go on, there's always time to reflect and at least make an initial assessment. In three-to-five years, we can go back and see how close we were. Until then, the jury will be out.
This is the first of three posts that will look at each team and analyze their draft day efforts.
Anaheim Ducks
Grade: B+
The Ducks traded down from 22 with Toronto (Tyler Biggs) and picked up Swedish forward Rickard Rakell with the final pick in the first round. B2011DW has liked Rakell since seeing him in the WJC. He doesn't have ideal size or elite skill, but he's a slick forward who is underrated on the offensive side of things. He plays a gritty, agitating game. With Toronto's second-rounder, they got excellent value with American goalie John Gibson, who has cornerstone-type potential. Unlike Jack Campbell, he won't have a lot of pressure on him as the 39th overall pick compared to being 10th. We also like the pick of undersized but plucky William Karlsson. The draft went off the rails a bit with the selection of Joe Cramarossa early in the third round. "Cram-berry" is a solid player, but his upside is limited. They could have done better. Andy Welinski generated some buzz in the USHL this season and is fine value in the third. Don't see a lot of upside in smallish Swedish forward (that's two with Karlsson) Max Friberg, but as a fifth-round selection, probably worth the risk. Sixth rounder Josh Manson did not get high marks from scouts we talked to beyond his size.
Boston Bruins
Grade: A
Stanley Cup champs and they land two high-end talents in Dougie Hamilton and Alexander Khokhlachev. That's not supposed to be how it works. Anthony Camara was a surprise and reach pick, but the same things were said about Milan Lucic in 2006, so it will be interesting to see if there is something more to this player skill-wise. His toughness even despite being average-sized is unquestionable. Ferlin, O'Gara and Volden are all developmental depth picks, but we keep going back to the team's two first picks in the top-40. From the looks of it, they could not have done any better, especially given that Marc Savard looks to be at the end of the line, with what could very well be a retirement announcement coming this summer.
Buffalo Sabres
Grade: A-
First pick Joel Armia was solid value at 16 where the Sabres got him and he has some real potential as a big scoring forward. Buffalo also got nice value with third-rounder Daniel Catenacci, who reminds us a lot of a Brad Marchand-type player. Terrific wheels, good hands and a real buzzsaw/agitating presence. We're not bullish on Colin Jacobs, who attended the draft with his arm in a sling after recent shoulder surgery and scouts didn't have great things to say about his long-term potential. The Sabres landed a homegrown product in the 5th round with West Seneca, N.Y. native and Barrie defenseman Alex Lepkowski, a shutdown guy with size who doesn't have any offensive upside but could be an effective bottom pair player one day. Big goalie Nathan Lieuwen, who had a terrific WHL season and playoffs in leading the Kootenay Ice to the Chynoweth Cup as WHL champs is a solid value pick and good story after being passed over twice previously because of concussion issues. Wisconsin high schooler Brad Navin has size, skill and is very raw but is an interesting project pick in the seventh round.
Calgary Flames
Grade: C
We like the Sven Bartschi pick, but, and we regret that Flames fans may be unhappy with the rest of the analysis, but new GM Jay Feaster and his staff took too many unnecessary risks the rest of the way. Bartschi won us over after a perimeter WJC, but we think Markus Granlund went way too high at 45- he's nowhere near the player his brother is. Tyler Wotherspoon is a good defensive player, but at barely over 6-foot, he simply doesn't have the size to be a shutdown D in the NHL, and his offensive upside/sense is pretty poor. We like John Gaudreau a lot- but not as a fourth-rounder. He's the smallest player ever on record to be drafted, and he's going to be hard-pressed to overcome that size deficit. Laurent Brossoit salvaged things in the sixth round- he's a big goalie with skill and potential, but it was too little, too late. This draft could haunt the Flames more for who they left on the board than anything else in about five years.
Carolina Hurricanes
Grade: A
The Hurricanes aren't getting enough credit for their draft- Jim Rutherford and company quietly cleaned up. Ryan Murphy at 12 and Victor Rask at 42 are excellent value picks. Murphy was a popular choice to go to the Bruins, but the thought of him working the power play with Justin Faulk in about three years...yikes. Watch out NHL! Rask underachieved, but to get him 12 picks into the second is good news for Carolina. Keegan Lowe was a tad high, but he is as steady and dependable as they come. Getting Swiss forward Gregory Hofmann was a steal in the fourth round, but unfortunately, he elected to stay in Switzerland rather than come over to Shawinigan, who was prepared to take him in the CHL Import Draft this week. Goalie Matt Mahalak and Brody Sutter (Duane's kid) are nice developmental project picks late. No flaws in this group.
Chicago Blackhawks
Grade: A
This is another team who gets high marks for their draft. Mark McNeill was a solid, solid pick at 17 just like his build. He's a perfect player for the blue collar folks in Chi-town. Phillip Danault was a bit of a surprise, but understand this- the kid is going to play and his intangibles- leadership, work ethic, desire- all rate him near the top of this class. He'll probably be a third-liner, but when you want to win hockey games, this is a guy who will do it for you. Adam Clendening AND Brandon Saad in the second round. Seriously? We like Mike Paliotta more than others in the third- he's a mobile, shutdown guy and winner. Klas Dahlbeck (overager) and Maxim Shalunov are solid value and risk/reward picks in the 3rd and 4th. Andrew Shaw is an overager who had a great playoffs in leading Owen Sound to the OHL championship. Sam Jardine, Alex Broadhurst and Johan Matsson are nothing to write home about, but this was one hell of a draft from the initial look.
Colorado Avalanche
Grade: A-
It's hard to argue with a draft class that headlines with Gabriel Landeskog. B2011DW absolutely loved this stud, and Colorado fans will too. We weren't as big on Duncan Siemens, but knew he'd go a lot higher than where we had him. If he can be the next Adam Foote, the Avalanche will have done just fine. Joachim Nermark had a disappointing season, but he has skill and upside. If he can get his development back on track, he'll be a good one for a fourth-rounder. Garrett Meurs slid down to the fifth round, but again- is decent value given that he was seen as a potential first-rounder coming into it. The Gabriel Beaupre and Dillon Donnelly picks don't do much for us, but for an organization needing grit and toughness, they at least meet that requirement.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Grade: C+
Boone Jenner is a good pick in the early second round for the Blue Jackets, but he's more likely a third-line character guy than a top-six stud. T.J. Tynan is a gutsy pick, but he was passed over a year ago, so can he thrive in the NHL with his lack of size? If his life is anything to date, he'll keep proving doubters wrong. Mike Reilly is a long-term project because of his lack of physical maturity, but has the tools to be an interesting project. Now, people will say Seth Ambroz is a great value pick in the fifth round, and on paper he is, but we're just not sold that he'll ever be the player he could be. More power to him if he can prove everyone wrong, but let's just say that his prodigious fall was not an accident. And we'll leave it at that. Lukas Sedlak and Anton Forsberg aren't much to speak of as legitimate NHL prospects. On paper, this draft class looks OK, but it lacks any real true high-enders, save for Tynan. And with his size, he's a risk until he can fight his way into the NHL and stay there. Columbus gets bonus points for landing Jeff Carter, but Brian Campbell's rejection in not waiving his no-trade to go there stings.
Dallas Stars
Grade: B
Jamie Oleksiak is a solid selection where they got him with major upside if he keeps developing and becomes more Zdeno Chara than Hal Gill. Sarnia power forward Brett Ritchie was also a solid value pick with upside at 44th overall in the second round. The rest of the guys, Emil Molin (not well known in Sweden), Troy Vance (another huge D but very raw), Matej Stransky and Jyri Jokipakka are some risky picks who may not return big dividends.
Detroit Red Wings
Grade: A
They did it again. After trading their first-rounder (23) to Ottawa (Matt Puempel) they still landed a first-round talent in Tomas Jurco, who looks like an absolute natural with that winged wheel crest on his chest. GM Ken Holland then worked the board like the draft pro he is, grabbing value picks like they were going out of style: Ryan Sproul in the second, Alan Quine in the third. Marek Tvrdon in the fourth, Philippe Hudon in the fifth. Alexei Marchenko could be better than any of them, and they got him in the seventh round. Seventh! Xavier Ouellet was a bit high for us, but with his smarts and puck skills, if anyone can thrive in that system it is him. Once again, the Wings prove that you don't need to have high picks to build your organization.
We'll be back with part two, commencing with the Edmonton Oilers, who are at the head of the class.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Joel Armia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joel Armia. Show all posts
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Saturday, June 4, 2011
NHL Scouting Combine fitness testing Day 2
B2011DW is back at the Congress Centre in Toronto for Day 2 of the fitness testing.
It's been a much less frenetic pace from yesterday. The TSN soundstage is down and there's much less activity here given the lowered emphasis and attention surrounding the next tiers of prospects testing here today.
It's a Euro-heavy group today- just met briefly with Joel Armia, Rickard Rakell and Victor Rask. All three represent the spectrum of English skills, with Armia being the least fluent of the three and Rakell being most comfortable and capable with interviews. We had a do-over with Rask, who had to hit the honeybucket in mid-interview the first time around.
We will have more video up on the blog today and will try to post the draft profiles, but keeping in mind the workload, may not get to the countdown until later on.
It's been a much less frenetic pace from yesterday. The TSN soundstage is down and there's much less activity here given the lowered emphasis and attention surrounding the next tiers of prospects testing here today.
It's a Euro-heavy group today- just met briefly with Joel Armia, Rickard Rakell and Victor Rask. All three represent the spectrum of English skills, with Armia being the least fluent of the three and Rakell being most comfortable and capable with interviews. We had a do-over with Rask, who had to hit the honeybucket in mid-interview the first time around.
We will have more video up on the blog today and will try to post the draft profiles, but keeping in mind the workload, may not get to the countdown until later on.
Friday, May 27, 2011
50 in 30: B2011DW's top-50 players for the NHL Draft 21-30
Just in time for the long weekend in the U.S., Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the Memorial Cup semifinal match between Mississauga and Kootenay (with Saint John facing the winner on Sunday) Bruins 2011 Draft Watch is here to bring you the fourth installment of our top-50 (plus honorable mentions) for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
30. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-3, 200 07/14/1993
On pure talent alone, Gibson is more of a top-20 pick than anything else. But here at B2011DW, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least take the latest NHL drafting trends into consideration, and that means that Gibson could be the victim of a pervasive thought we've been hearing over and over with NHL scouts this season: that taking a goaltender high in the draft is not a good use of assets considering all of the successful goalies this season who were not first- or second-round picks. Only one of the four netminders in the NHL semifinal series (Roberto Luongo- 4th overall in 1997) was a top-60 pick (Tim Thomas- 217th overall in 1994, Dwayne Roloson, Antti Niemi- undrafted free agents). That said, Gibson is by far the best of the 2011 crop in our view and deserves to be picked in the first round if a team values him there enough. He's got the size, quickness and athleticism that is a requisite for being a high draft pick these days, and even better, Gibson plays with a calm and poise that is a sight to behold. No moment seems too overwhelming to him. He won back-to-back overtime games in the U-18 against Canada (after an epic collapse in the third) and against Sweden (after his team came back from being two goals down in the third) to clinch the gold medal. As the tournament's best goalie, Gibson lived up to every inch of the buzz preceding him. The Pittsburgh native de-committed from Ohio State in favor of Michigan, so those Wolverines-Buckeyes games ought to be real interesting. When on top of his game, like he was all throughout the Worlds, he looms large in net and swallows up rebounds. He could have a sign put up in his crease that says "Abandon all hope ye who enter here" because he's that intimidating.
29. Vladislav Namestnikov, C London (OHL)5-11, 170 11/22/1992
Skill and NHL bloodlines flow strong through this prospect. His father, Evgeny, was a journeyman defender in the NHL, AHL, and IHL- the son was raised for a big chunk of his early life in North American while dad was playing. His uncle, Slava Kozlov, won multiple Stanley Cups with Detroit and was one of the most skilled players in the NHL at his peak. Namestnikov is a serious skater with all the tools in the box when it comes to his feet- quick burst, top speed, shiftiness and agility. When carrying the puck at full gallop, he's very difficult to contain. His biggest challenge is getting stronger and filling out a slight frame. He got knocked around a bit this year, but made a quick transition to the North American game given his command of the language and ease with having played in North American rinks growing up. With his hands and offensive hockey sense, this guy has some real pro potential, but like many young scoring forwards he needs to work on the defensive aspects of his game. There could be a real nice payoff down the road with this player.
"He's a great teammate and works real hard," Boston Bruins prospect and London forward Jared Knight told B2011DW recently. "In practice it's fun to watch him handle the puck because he's got some sick mitts. He plays hard and isn't afraid to drive the net."
28. Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad (SEL) 6-1, 175 07/12/1993
At 28, it would appear that this extremely bright Swedish defender's stock is down. It's isn't, but he's more a victim of his solid all-around game but lack of production than anything else. It's all about projection with this potential stud, but after watching what was a promising and underrated performance at the World Under-18s last month, we're not seeing the dynamic upside with him that we see from others. His hockey sense is tremendous- by far the best aspect of Brodin's game. He can diagram a play instantly and move the puck with authority. The numbers aren't there because he was playing against men this year as a 17-year-old but should come. Oh, and did we mention that he helped lead the team to the SEL championship? He's highly mobile and agile with excellent footwork. He doesn't stand out as much as teammate and fellow draft prospect Oscar Klefbom, but he processes his reads and decisions at a higher level. Brodin is a solid player whom we feel is going to be good, but not great. When looking at projectable upside, we have Klefbom higher, but Brodin is the safer player less likely to hit a bust factor. If ever there was a pick your flavor situation with two players- this is it.
27. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) 6-4, 200 10/14/1992
On talent and upside alone, Mayfield should be higher on the list, but it's been a tough season for the St. Louis native. To say he's been in a tough spot for development for the past couple of seasons is about as far as we're willing to go. The long and short of this late '92 is that he's a highly impressive player as far as pure projection goes, but the feeling by many in the NHL scouting community is that he simply has not progressed the way he should have based on the way he looked a year ago in August at the Eight Nations tourney and even this past August when he participated in the NHL's Research and Development Camp in Toronto. He's a very good skater with the fluid stride and lateral agility team's love to see in a big man. He can move the puck effectively and has a nice shot that he generates some real power on. It will become even more dangerous as he adds strength and mass to his long, lanky frame. Right now, Mayfield is extremely raw and prone to poor decisions because his team has struggled so much. One NHL scout said that he sees so much ice time that it's easy to lay his flaws bare, and because he has very little help around him, some are concerned about the effect on his psyche.
Another big league scout who saw him for the R & D camp and then again in March had this to say: "It was shocking how bad he was. I saw no progression from when I saw him before and the decision-making was particularly troublesome."
The good news for Mayfield is that he's going an excellent hockey program in Denver under DU coach George Gwozdecky. If anyone can get him ready for the NHL the Pioneers can.
26. Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) 5-10, 175 05/09/1993
Supremely talented, and could go significantly higher than where we have him because of his elite skill and explosiveness. B2011DW has some concerns about the other areas of his game, specifically, intensity, consistency and overall effort levels in the areas of the rink where his skill set doesn't translate as well (along the boards and in front of the net). He's not very big, but has very good acceleration, separation gear and even the shifty elusiveness that so many European players possess. When at his best, he's flying around the ice, turning defenders inside out and wiring pucks to the back of the net from just about any spot in the offensive zone. One NHL scout we know absolutely loved Khokhlachev at the beginning of the year given how seamless his transition was to the OHL, but as the season wore on and he saw him more and more, the red flags started to surface about his overall intensity and willingness to compete when the going gets rough. Solid two-way player...when he wants to be. If he tightens it up in all zones and on most of his shifts, he's easily a top-10 talent in this class.
25. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-2, 210 04/30/1993
Victimized by unrealistic expectations, Biggs could end up proving a lot of the critics wrong. We don't buy into the belief that he killed his stock at the World Under-18 tourney- we just don't feel that it was as high with the NHL teams out there as Central scouting led everyone to believe when they ranked him fifth overall among North American skaters on their midterm list. He lives up to his last name- a powerful skater and battering ram who plays the game like a legitimate power forward. When Biggs is on top of his game, he bulls his way to the net, spins and cycles effortlessly while protecting the puck from defenders powerless to separate him from it, and unleashes a rocket shot that is heavy and hurts. Unfortunately, scouts are unsure of his hockey sense and ability to create for himself. That's one of those aspects of hockey that is extremely tough to project and Biggs could very well end up being a legitimate top-six forward someday- he can skate, hit and fight. But there are enough concerns about his upside that keep him from being a top-20 guy in our view. However, he is extremely close- the margin between his not making the cut is razor-thin as any one of the players ahead of him at 21-24 could all make the case to be inside the top-20. He's a good player, but how good is the big question on draft day.
24. Zack Phillips, C Saint John (QMJHL) 6-1, 190 10/28/1992
This scoring stud lost some effectiveness down the stretch with a shoulder injury he suffered in the President's Cup final series against Gatineau. As such he hasn't been able to shine as brightly in the Memorial Cup as he did during the regular season when he and linemates Jonathan Huberdeau and Michael Kirkpatrick destroyed opposing defenses and netminders. The biggest knock on Phillips is his lack of speed and explosiveness, but the NHL is full of guys who don't have the most dynamic skating ability. Where he compensates is with his hands and elite hockey sense- Phillips may be the most opportunistic scorer of any prospect in this entire class. He drives the net honestly and often times finds results. One of the questions scouts have is whether Phillips can do it on a team without the pure talent and depth he has surrounding him in St. John. We think he'll do it no matter who he's with, whether at the center position or on the wing at the next level. He was the ninth-ranked player in THN's draft issue and while we feel that is a bit high, we could see how an NHL team in need for some legit scoring chops might have him as a solid top-15 pick this year.
23. Matt Puempel, LW Peterborough (OHL) 6-0, 170 01/30/1993
One player we generally wanted to have higher, but simply couldn't do so based on lack of viewing opportunities. B2011DW fully recognizes that the Petes standout who scored back-to-back 30-goal seasons with his club who could have had 40+ goals this year if not for a bone chip in his hip that shelved him for surgery with about a month to go is a high-end scoring talent. The 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year has unreal hands and offensive hockey sense. He can snipe pucks from anywhere in the offensive zone and does the unexplainable- able to fire the puck from seemingly impossible angles and situations. He ripped a bullet from the right side less than a minute into the gold medal game of the Ivan Hlinka in what ended up being a 1-0 win for Canada (who has owned that non-IIHF tourney since its inception btw). Where Puempel loses his shine is in the fact that he is of extremely average size, strength, skating ability and compete level. He's not poor in any of those areas, but NHL scouts look at him and keep thinking how much more dangerous and effective he could be if he just tried a little harder, had an extra step and adds the extra mass that's expected before he hits his physical peak. We don't think the hip injury will hurt him much at the draft- we're told it isn't a chronic condition and whichever team drafts him will do so based on everything they've seen from him over two seasons, not what he might have accomplished in the last month for a non-playoff team.
22. Jonathan "J.T." Miller, C/RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-1, 198 03/14/1993
We're not as bullish on Miller as others are, but we agonized over whether to include the immensely talented Ohio native who played his minor hockey for the Pittsburgh Hornets organization after his explosion at the Under-18s in April. All year, we watched Miller and recognized his excellent size, skating, hands and sense, but wondered why he was having so much trouble translating his myriad natural gifts into production. Miller showed what he's capable of when he led Team USA in scoring en route to an unprecedented third consecutive gold medal at that tourney by the Americans. When on top of his game, he can back defenses up with his ability to handle the puck at top speed. He uses his big frame to shield the puck well and can hit open teammates with pinpoint passes. He and Rocco Grimaldi teamed up with Reid Boucher for a memorable goal against Canada- Grimaldi blew Travis Ewanyk off the puck with a big hit behind the net. As it skittered to Miller, he already knew where Boucher was just inside the left circle and zipped a crisp pass right into Boucher's wheelhouse. In a split second, it was by Malcolm Subban. Those are the kinds of plays Miller didn't make with enough regularity this season, but we wouldn't at all be surprised if an NHL club jumped on him in the top-15. The skills are there, we're just not sure about the rest of the package to be able to score consistently at the highest level.
21. Joel Armia, RW Assat Pori (FIN) 6-3, 198 05/31/1993
Another toolsy prospect that B2011DW will no doubt be second-guessed on, we've seen him live and we've seen him on video and sorry to all the Finnish hockey fans out there, but we just can't get on board with this guy in the top-20. We suspect an NHL club will jump on him in the top-15 because of his intriguing mix of size and scoring upside. That said, he's risky because to us, he looks a lot like a more skilled Mikko Lehtonen, who scored goals, but also went through the motions for two seasons as a member of the Providence Bruins before tearing it up in the Swedish Elite League this past year. The Bruins traded Lehtonen's rights to the Minnesota Wild, but like Lehtonen, Armia is an alternately a dazzling and frustrating player to watch. Whenever the puck is near him in the offensive zone, he's a threat to put it in the back of the net. He uses his large frame to fight off checkers and has a quick stick with laser-like release. However, when you watch the rest of his body of work, you keep wondering: "Where's the beef?" He doesn't backcheck much and just looks lazy skating up and down the wing at times. There's no denying the killer instincts offensively, but he's not nearly as talented as he and his fans think he is that he can get away with his lackadaisical approach to play in the neutral zone or his own end. Armia has the potential to blow this scouting report out of the water, but we gave him the benefit of the doubt several times. In the end, his uneven compete level and a lack of seeing him ever really take charge in any game we watched him play has him just outside the top-20.
30. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-3, 200 07/14/1993
On pure talent alone, Gibson is more of a top-20 pick than anything else. But here at B2011DW, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least take the latest NHL drafting trends into consideration, and that means that Gibson could be the victim of a pervasive thought we've been hearing over and over with NHL scouts this season: that taking a goaltender high in the draft is not a good use of assets considering all of the successful goalies this season who were not first- or second-round picks. Only one of the four netminders in the NHL semifinal series (Roberto Luongo- 4th overall in 1997) was a top-60 pick (Tim Thomas- 217th overall in 1994, Dwayne Roloson, Antti Niemi- undrafted free agents). That said, Gibson is by far the best of the 2011 crop in our view and deserves to be picked in the first round if a team values him there enough. He's got the size, quickness and athleticism that is a requisite for being a high draft pick these days, and even better, Gibson plays with a calm and poise that is a sight to behold. No moment seems too overwhelming to him. He won back-to-back overtime games in the U-18 against Canada (after an epic collapse in the third) and against Sweden (after his team came back from being two goals down in the third) to clinch the gold medal. As the tournament's best goalie, Gibson lived up to every inch of the buzz preceding him. The Pittsburgh native de-committed from Ohio State in favor of Michigan, so those Wolverines-Buckeyes games ought to be real interesting. When on top of his game, like he was all throughout the Worlds, he looms large in net and swallows up rebounds. He could have a sign put up in his crease that says "Abandon all hope ye who enter here" because he's that intimidating.
29. Vladislav Namestnikov, C London (OHL)5-11, 170 11/22/1992
Skill and NHL bloodlines flow strong through this prospect. His father, Evgeny, was a journeyman defender in the NHL, AHL, and IHL- the son was raised for a big chunk of his early life in North American while dad was playing. His uncle, Slava Kozlov, won multiple Stanley Cups with Detroit and was one of the most skilled players in the NHL at his peak. Namestnikov is a serious skater with all the tools in the box when it comes to his feet- quick burst, top speed, shiftiness and agility. When carrying the puck at full gallop, he's very difficult to contain. His biggest challenge is getting stronger and filling out a slight frame. He got knocked around a bit this year, but made a quick transition to the North American game given his command of the language and ease with having played in North American rinks growing up. With his hands and offensive hockey sense, this guy has some real pro potential, but like many young scoring forwards he needs to work on the defensive aspects of his game. There could be a real nice payoff down the road with this player.
"He's a great teammate and works real hard," Boston Bruins prospect and London forward Jared Knight told B2011DW recently. "In practice it's fun to watch him handle the puck because he's got some sick mitts. He plays hard and isn't afraid to drive the net."
28. Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad (SEL) 6-1, 175 07/12/1993
At 28, it would appear that this extremely bright Swedish defender's stock is down. It's isn't, but he's more a victim of his solid all-around game but lack of production than anything else. It's all about projection with this potential stud, but after watching what was a promising and underrated performance at the World Under-18s last month, we're not seeing the dynamic upside with him that we see from others. His hockey sense is tremendous- by far the best aspect of Brodin's game. He can diagram a play instantly and move the puck with authority. The numbers aren't there because he was playing against men this year as a 17-year-old but should come. Oh, and did we mention that he helped lead the team to the SEL championship? He's highly mobile and agile with excellent footwork. He doesn't stand out as much as teammate and fellow draft prospect Oscar Klefbom, but he processes his reads and decisions at a higher level. Brodin is a solid player whom we feel is going to be good, but not great. When looking at projectable upside, we have Klefbom higher, but Brodin is the safer player less likely to hit a bust factor. If ever there was a pick your flavor situation with two players- this is it.
27. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) 6-4, 200 10/14/1992
On talent and upside alone, Mayfield should be higher on the list, but it's been a tough season for the St. Louis native. To say he's been in a tough spot for development for the past couple of seasons is about as far as we're willing to go. The long and short of this late '92 is that he's a highly impressive player as far as pure projection goes, but the feeling by many in the NHL scouting community is that he simply has not progressed the way he should have based on the way he looked a year ago in August at the Eight Nations tourney and even this past August when he participated in the NHL's Research and Development Camp in Toronto. He's a very good skater with the fluid stride and lateral agility team's love to see in a big man. He can move the puck effectively and has a nice shot that he generates some real power on. It will become even more dangerous as he adds strength and mass to his long, lanky frame. Right now, Mayfield is extremely raw and prone to poor decisions because his team has struggled so much. One NHL scout said that he sees so much ice time that it's easy to lay his flaws bare, and because he has very little help around him, some are concerned about the effect on his psyche.
Another big league scout who saw him for the R & D camp and then again in March had this to say: "It was shocking how bad he was. I saw no progression from when I saw him before and the decision-making was particularly troublesome."
The good news for Mayfield is that he's going an excellent hockey program in Denver under DU coach George Gwozdecky. If anyone can get him ready for the NHL the Pioneers can.
26. Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) 5-10, 175 05/09/1993
Supremely talented, and could go significantly higher than where we have him because of his elite skill and explosiveness. B2011DW has some concerns about the other areas of his game, specifically, intensity, consistency and overall effort levels in the areas of the rink where his skill set doesn't translate as well (along the boards and in front of the net). He's not very big, but has very good acceleration, separation gear and even the shifty elusiveness that so many European players possess. When at his best, he's flying around the ice, turning defenders inside out and wiring pucks to the back of the net from just about any spot in the offensive zone. One NHL scout we know absolutely loved Khokhlachev at the beginning of the year given how seamless his transition was to the OHL, but as the season wore on and he saw him more and more, the red flags started to surface about his overall intensity and willingness to compete when the going gets rough. Solid two-way player...when he wants to be. If he tightens it up in all zones and on most of his shifts, he's easily a top-10 talent in this class.
25. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-2, 210 04/30/1993
Victimized by unrealistic expectations, Biggs could end up proving a lot of the critics wrong. We don't buy into the belief that he killed his stock at the World Under-18 tourney- we just don't feel that it was as high with the NHL teams out there as Central scouting led everyone to believe when they ranked him fifth overall among North American skaters on their midterm list. He lives up to his last name- a powerful skater and battering ram who plays the game like a legitimate power forward. When Biggs is on top of his game, he bulls his way to the net, spins and cycles effortlessly while protecting the puck from defenders powerless to separate him from it, and unleashes a rocket shot that is heavy and hurts. Unfortunately, scouts are unsure of his hockey sense and ability to create for himself. That's one of those aspects of hockey that is extremely tough to project and Biggs could very well end up being a legitimate top-six forward someday- he can skate, hit and fight. But there are enough concerns about his upside that keep him from being a top-20 guy in our view. However, he is extremely close- the margin between his not making the cut is razor-thin as any one of the players ahead of him at 21-24 could all make the case to be inside the top-20. He's a good player, but how good is the big question on draft day.
24. Zack Phillips, C Saint John (QMJHL) 6-1, 190 10/28/1992
This scoring stud lost some effectiveness down the stretch with a shoulder injury he suffered in the President's Cup final series against Gatineau. As such he hasn't been able to shine as brightly in the Memorial Cup as he did during the regular season when he and linemates Jonathan Huberdeau and Michael Kirkpatrick destroyed opposing defenses and netminders. The biggest knock on Phillips is his lack of speed and explosiveness, but the NHL is full of guys who don't have the most dynamic skating ability. Where he compensates is with his hands and elite hockey sense- Phillips may be the most opportunistic scorer of any prospect in this entire class. He drives the net honestly and often times finds results. One of the questions scouts have is whether Phillips can do it on a team without the pure talent and depth he has surrounding him in St. John. We think he'll do it no matter who he's with, whether at the center position or on the wing at the next level. He was the ninth-ranked player in THN's draft issue and while we feel that is a bit high, we could see how an NHL team in need for some legit scoring chops might have him as a solid top-15 pick this year.
23. Matt Puempel, LW Peterborough (OHL) 6-0, 170 01/30/1993
One player we generally wanted to have higher, but simply couldn't do so based on lack of viewing opportunities. B2011DW fully recognizes that the Petes standout who scored back-to-back 30-goal seasons with his club who could have had 40+ goals this year if not for a bone chip in his hip that shelved him for surgery with about a month to go is a high-end scoring talent. The 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year has unreal hands and offensive hockey sense. He can snipe pucks from anywhere in the offensive zone and does the unexplainable- able to fire the puck from seemingly impossible angles and situations. He ripped a bullet from the right side less than a minute into the gold medal game of the Ivan Hlinka in what ended up being a 1-0 win for Canada (who has owned that non-IIHF tourney since its inception btw). Where Puempel loses his shine is in the fact that he is of extremely average size, strength, skating ability and compete level. He's not poor in any of those areas, but NHL scouts look at him and keep thinking how much more dangerous and effective he could be if he just tried a little harder, had an extra step and adds the extra mass that's expected before he hits his physical peak. We don't think the hip injury will hurt him much at the draft- we're told it isn't a chronic condition and whichever team drafts him will do so based on everything they've seen from him over two seasons, not what he might have accomplished in the last month for a non-playoff team.
22. Jonathan "J.T." Miller, C/RW U.S. NTDP (USHL) 6-1, 198 03/14/1993
We're not as bullish on Miller as others are, but we agonized over whether to include the immensely talented Ohio native who played his minor hockey for the Pittsburgh Hornets organization after his explosion at the Under-18s in April. All year, we watched Miller and recognized his excellent size, skating, hands and sense, but wondered why he was having so much trouble translating his myriad natural gifts into production. Miller showed what he's capable of when he led Team USA in scoring en route to an unprecedented third consecutive gold medal at that tourney by the Americans. When on top of his game, he can back defenses up with his ability to handle the puck at top speed. He uses his big frame to shield the puck well and can hit open teammates with pinpoint passes. He and Rocco Grimaldi teamed up with Reid Boucher for a memorable goal against Canada- Grimaldi blew Travis Ewanyk off the puck with a big hit behind the net. As it skittered to Miller, he already knew where Boucher was just inside the left circle and zipped a crisp pass right into Boucher's wheelhouse. In a split second, it was by Malcolm Subban. Those are the kinds of plays Miller didn't make with enough regularity this season, but we wouldn't at all be surprised if an NHL club jumped on him in the top-15. The skills are there, we're just not sure about the rest of the package to be able to score consistently at the highest level.
21. Joel Armia, RW Assat Pori (FIN) 6-3, 198 05/31/1993
Another toolsy prospect that B2011DW will no doubt be second-guessed on, we've seen him live and we've seen him on video and sorry to all the Finnish hockey fans out there, but we just can't get on board with this guy in the top-20. We suspect an NHL club will jump on him in the top-15 because of his intriguing mix of size and scoring upside. That said, he's risky because to us, he looks a lot like a more skilled Mikko Lehtonen, who scored goals, but also went through the motions for two seasons as a member of the Providence Bruins before tearing it up in the Swedish Elite League this past year. The Bruins traded Lehtonen's rights to the Minnesota Wild, but like Lehtonen, Armia is an alternately a dazzling and frustrating player to watch. Whenever the puck is near him in the offensive zone, he's a threat to put it in the back of the net. He uses his large frame to fight off checkers and has a quick stick with laser-like release. However, when you watch the rest of his body of work, you keep wondering: "Where's the beef?" He doesn't backcheck much and just looks lazy skating up and down the wing at times. There's no denying the killer instincts offensively, but he's not nearly as talented as he and his fans think he is that he can get away with his lackadaisical approach to play in the neutral zone or his own end. Armia has the potential to blow this scouting report out of the water, but we gave him the benefit of the doubt several times. In the end, his uneven compete level and a lack of seeing him ever really take charge in any game we watched him play has him just outside the top-20.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
2011 World Under-18: Risers and Fallers
The 2011 World Under-18 Championship is in the books, and Team USA achieved a first- winning three consecutive gold medals for the first time in USA Hockey history.
The 2009 squad did it on home soil in North Dakota, winning gold mainly thanks to 17-year-old Jack Campbell's arrival on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with, the precursor to the following season when he would capture championships at the 2010 Under-20 and again the Under-18 tourney in Belarus.
This time, the USA team, not considered by most as exceptional as the force of nature that blew through the field a year ago, got the goaltending from new star John Gibson, and then a host of balanced, opportunistic two-way play by the rest of the team led by forwards J.T. Miller (leading scorer with 13 points in six games), Reid Boucher (top goal-getter with eight), Robbie Russo (captain and strong two-way performance- eight points, +5 rating) and of course, the heroics of Rocco Grimaldi, who may not have shot out the lights on the scoreboard, but made myriad contributions to the championship in other areas.
Still, Team Sweden came to within just 1:29 of capturing that country's first gold medal in Under-18 tournament history (remarkable that the Tre Kronor have never accomplished this feat given Sweden's status as a two-time Olympic champion and global hockey power).
The defense corps, led by Jonas Brodin and captain Oscar Klefbom, performed in outstanding fashion throughout the tourney. Along with Rasmus Bengtsson and Albin Blomkvist, they formed one of the most effective top-four back line units you will see in hockey. The Swedish D didn't make many mistakes, but unfortunately when they did, it resulted in a spectacularly devastating loss at the hands of the Americans in overtime.
Russia captured bronze, and got a ridiculous offensive explosion from forward Nikita Kucherov, scoring 11 goals and 21 points in just 8 games. It was Alexander Ovechkin-like production, and the enigmatic winger certainly succeeded in raising his stock for the 2011 draft. Just how much, remains to be seen, however. More on Kucherov later.
Other big stories for the Russians were the performances of 2012 eligibles Nail Yakupov (6 goals, 13 points) and Mikhail Grigorenko (4 goals, 18 points) in seven games. Yakupov started slowly, but came on strong in the final couple of games of the the preliminary round and in the last two against Sweden and Canada. Grigorenko was consistently excellent throughout, and we could be looking at a possible 1-2 Russian class of Yakupov and Grigorenko or vice versa just as we saw in 2004 with Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.
Of course, if Canadian stud defender Ryan Murray has anything to say about it, he'll crash the top-two party in 2012. He was tremendous as the captain and as a stalwart dual-threat on the back end. Although Ryan Murphy won top defenseman honors with a brilliant 13-point performance to set a Team Canada scoring record (that's right- forwards too- Murphy scored more points than any Canadian player in U18 tourney history- wow!), it took Murphy's four-point day in a losing cause for the bronze medal to secure the honors, otherwise, it just might have been Murray.
Once again, the history of the U18 tourney having positive and negative effects on the upcoming draft class proved true, and scouts are no doubt eagerly anticipating the race to 2012, with so many intriguing story lines emerging in Germany.
Now, let's look at some players who helped and hurt themselves in this tournament in our view. We can't dedicate this space to each and every one, so consider this the cliff's notes version.
Risers
Nikita Kucherov, F Russia- We're going to start calling him "Midas" because everything he touched turned to gold. Unbelievable offensive performance by one of the more skilled prospects in the entire class, but who hurt his standing this season by looking disinterested and acting at times petulant in earlier tournaments. Kucherov saved his best for last, putting on a tour-de-force that no doubt will have some NHL teams who do not fear drafting out of Europe readjusting their previous thinking on him. Before the tourney we would have thought there was no way Kucherov would be a first-round pick, but if you're a club picking in the final few spots of this draft, why wouldn't try to swing for the fences? If he does drop into the second, the wait won't be a long one. Showed enough game-breaking speed, quick hands and an absolutely serial killer instinct when it came to finishing off chances.
Ryan Murphy, D Canada- When you've been one of the most talked-about prospects for the top-10 of the NHL draft all season, is it actually possible to raise your stock? Well, the Aurora, Ontario native and Kitchener Rangers star did it in Germany. The production was record-setting in itself, but it was how Murphy scored the points that had tongues a-wagging. Whether firing up the ice like he had rockets on his skates, or slithering through defenses while showing off several gears and superlative edge control/balance or making 360-degree spin moves and blind passes on the stick tape of teammates, Murphy was as dynamic as they come. Bruins fans who were hoping he would fall to the ninth spot now can only hope that if he is Boston's target, that the team can move up to secure him, because we just don't see him dropping very far out of the top-five (if at all even) after the kind of season, OHL playoffs and now Under-18 performance he just had. In fact, B2011DW wouldn't be at all surprised if the New Jersey Devils grabbed him as high as fourth overall. Sure, it will depend on who drops to them, but for a team who knew exactly what it had with Scott Niedermayer for over a decade, this kid's high-end offensive chops aren't far off.
J.T. Miller, C USA- One of the bigger disappointments this season for the U.S. NTDP because his production never seemed to be commensurate with his excellent physical tools, Miller finally broke through with the kind of dominant, consistent scoring performance scouts have been waiting for. The 6-1 center from Ohio scored four goals (and some big ones at that) and was a consistent passer and playmaker. The top line of Miller, Boucher and Grimaldi gave other teams fits throughout the tourney and Miller was often the one who found himself with the time and space to make things happen with. To his credit, he did. It helped to have a linemate in Boucher who was shooting the lights out in critical situations, but Miller looked and played like a solid first-round pick. Someone who liked his tools but was concerned with the lack of production just might have seen enough to grab him top-20. Even if he slips out of that bracket, we can't imagine he'd miss on the opening 30 picks. Too much talent and upside there.
Jonas Brodin, D Sweden- The controller; we were pretty impressed at how smoothly and effectively Brodin took charge of the Swedish defense corps, turning them into the prettiest transition unit in the entire field. The way Sweden broke out of their end was poetry in motion, and it all started with Brodin who isn't a flashy player (just one assist in four games), but seems to see the ice and think many steps ahead of everyone else like a chess grandmaster. He's got the head and feet to orchestrate the attack, even if he lacks the strength and overpowering shot to be a big point getter. If intelligent puck movers are at a premium, then don't expect Brodin to last very long on June 24th- he's slick and when it comes down to it, a pretty commanding presence. He doesn't get enough credit for what he brings to the table in our view.
Mark Scheifele, C Canada- Young colt lived up to his Barrie namesake with a very good offensive performance. Scored one of the more memorable goals of anyone in the tourney against Finland when he read a bungled pass, split the defense, fought off a hook from behind and still managed to put the puck in the net with a nice backhand deke. 6-3 guys don't typically move the way he does with that ability to separate, so there is a lot of raw material to work with. At about 175, he's nowhere near as strong as he needs to be. However, he more than solidified a first-round draft grade in our view. He's a poor man's Ryan Johansen at this stage we feel- won't go as high, but his progress and potentially high ceiling will see him picked ahead of other higher-profile players who are bigger names and have been in draft discussions longer. Classic guy who came into the U18s with some questions to answer and passed with flying colors. Happens every year.
Joel Armia, F Finland- Took charge up front for Finland and proved himself a solid first-round selection with his offensive performance. His big frame needs work to add mass and strength, but he's got a long stride and the ability to generate speed and separation. He's still a little gangly and not overly strong on his skates, but getting there. A vicious killer between the hashmarks- wants the puck and knows what to do with it when he gets it. One of the best pure goal scorers in the draft and impressed us with his vision and playmaking skills in this tourney as well. Creative and a better puck distributor than we gave him credit for. Not very physical, but not a soft player, either. Uses his trunk and long limbs to create space and bull his way to the net. Doesn't speak English very well yet, but uses two very important words often: "puck" and "score". His effort without the puck is what is holding him back from a top-10 selection in our view. He can be lackadaisical and is inconsistent in his backchecking efforts. If its a maturity thing, he could be a homerun pick, but if he's only motivated offensively, then he's a one-dimensional guy and may never be as good a player as he should be.
Victor Rask, C Sweden- Got his sliding value going in the other direction with a very good preliminary round performance, especially against Canada to earn the top seed in group. Big, offensively-savy centerman who isn't a great skater but gets from point A to B well enough. He'll get more balanced and stronger on his skates, and while he'll never be a speed demon, he goes to the net with some power. Soft hands for passing and can unleash a good, heavy shot. Not much of a showing against the USA in the gold medal game, but we're grading the overall tournament performance and he did some nice things reminiscent of what scouts were expecting from him after his performance in this same tournament a year ago. Will some team take him in the 1st round? Possibly- don't bet against it. However, his season overall is still a disappointment given the expectations he had coming in. Good rebound, but he won't get anywhere near the bounce of a Kucherov, for example.
Reid Boucher, F USA- Gutsy little scorer found the back of the net eight times in the tournament, which wasn't at the top of the charts, but his timing was tremendous. Michigan State recruit is undersized and not all that fast a skater, but he more than makes up with it for his natural anticipation and knack for finding open ice and a wicked shot that he can unleash from anywhere. He did this at the Five Nations in February and raised a few eyebrows, but the encore performance on an even bigger stage should have done enough to see him secure second-round status. Scorers like Boucher don't grow on trees, and while he's not the showman Grimaldi is in terms of being noticeable on every shift, he's highly dangerous and just knows how to be clutch. Also led his team in plus/minus with +9, so he's responsible defensively and kills penalties, too. One of Ron Rolston's go-to guys who delivered.
John Gibson, G USA- What more can we say about this guy that we haven't already? Super size, quickness and technique. Makes things look easy when they aren't. But the best thing about him is his calm and poise. He weathered the storm of a Canada comeback yesterday to secure an overtime win, then hung in with his team down a couple of goals to make every stop the rest of the way in yet another overtime victory to clinch gold. We were looking for him to step out from behind Campbell's international shadow, and the Pittsburgh native did precisely that. Awesome performance from the tournament's top netminder, and he's all but sewn up status as the first goaltender off the board in June.
Robbie Russo, D USA- It's no secret that B2011DW was pretty critical of Russo's performance during earlier viewings of him this season, and we weren't hearing great things about him from sources either. But, he pulled it together in time to have an excellent tournament befitting of some of the hype. He's headed to Notre Dame next season and should make a pretty immediate impact if he plays in the NCAA like he did in Germany. Smart, crisp puck mover all tournament long and worked with Connor Murphy to set up the winning goal against Sweden. Wasn't as strong as the tourney went on as he was in the beginning, but what can we say? He at least looked like the PMD some circles were hyping him as.
Connor Murphy, D USA- This was a make-or-break tourney for Murphy to land in the top-60 and he looks to have made it. Big, talented two-way defender who won't put up a ton of points, but is an effective point man with a big shot. Miami University recruit is staying in his home state to play for the Redhawks, and the only real questions he needs to answer are ones about his durability. Kid can play and looks to have more offensive potential than his dad, Gord, who was a solid NHL stay-at-homer in his day.
Dmitrij Jaskin, F CZE- Power winger helped himself with four goals in five games, showing off his wicked release and powerful shot. Heavy feet, yes, but competes hard and is a physical player with a North American flavor to his game already. Below average skaters always have it in tough to make it in the NHL, which is a skating man's league, but when they are big, strong, intelligent and passionate about the game the way Jaskin is, they usually find a way to make it. If he could get a little faster he has top-six potential for sure.
Fallers
Tyler Biggs, F USA- Tough tournament for a kid who is unfairly becoming a whipping boy, but we also have to call it the way we see it. He hurt his team with way too many penalties. Now in fairness, some of the calls that went against him were the classic- he's bigger (no pun intended) than the other guy and the hits looked worse than they were- type infractions that tend to get whistled more during international play. However, he also took his share of lazy, undisciplined calls and that's what drives us crazy. The roughing call he took against Canada just after Boucher made it 4-1 was particularly galling because it was completely unnecessary and also sparked that team's comeback. Biggs is a powerful skater with a heavy shot, but we didn't see him creating much on his own offensively other than scoring the winning goal against Canada in OT that several onlookers felt goaltender Malcolm Subban should have stopped. Biggs was unfairly rated too high by Central scouting at mid-term and he's the easy target right now because he didn't produce consistently while others on his squad did. Right or wrong, fair or unfair- it is what it is.
Joachim Nermark, F SWE- Ugh. Just a disappointing showing for a guy who was tremendous at the Ivan Hlinka but has been all downhill since. One goal in five games...invisible against the USA. One scout we talked to said, 'We have no use for him." Ouch. He may yet be a top-60 pick because of what he did in Slovakia, but we wouldn't touch him in that range based on what we saw here. Risky pick and we're not even sure of the payoff. Did not help himself at all.
Samu Perhonen, G FIN- Brutal is a polite way to put this promising netminder's performance. He was shaky from jump street against Canada and never recovered, stopping a putrid 87.5% of his shots and going 2-2 in the process. We thought this cat would challenge Gibson for top netminder honors at the 2011 draft, and now we don't even think Perhonen will be the first European picked (Magnus Hellberg). He's still a top-two or three-round pick, but after seeing him and Gibson in the same competition, they seem light years apart. Perhonen's lack of poise was what was particularly troublesome- just couldn't seem to make the big save when his team needed it. However, Perhonen still has the size and athletic ability/upside to be a high-end stopper in the NHL one day. If he slides, that could be great news for the team that grabs him.
Reece Scarlett, D CAN- Has showed some impressive traits and potential in flashes, but this was a tough tourney for the WHL defender. He's not where he needs to be in terms of his physical development and strength. He also made some bad pinches and decisions that proved costly. Seemed hesitant at times and was caught in no man's land. Real smooth stride and mobility, but in this game, that split second delayed reaction will burn you even if you skate well. He wasn't quite ready for primetime and opponents exploited him.
Daniel Catenacci, F CAN- Just two assists for this speedy, skilled and even dynamic forward were a major disappointment. Capable of so much more, yet went invisible for long stretches. On top of that, took a lot of bad penalties and never could seem to get out of his own way. All of this from a guy some on the internet are talking about as a potential first-rounder in June? We don't think so. Soo Greyhounds teammate Nick Cousins skated circles around him (4-4-8) and was one of the guys who emerged as a big-time clutch performer.
Miikka Salomaki, F FIN- We weren't very impressed with this guy's NHL upside, but kept hearing that teams were keeping an eye out for him. Well, after watching him at the WJC over the winter and on video at the U18s, we can't see him being a top-three round pick. He might get there, but that could be a mistake. Doesn't do anything particularly well, and just seems like a solid Euro leaguer and nothing more.
B2011DW will be back with a look at some sleepers who may have emerged from the shadows a bit, and even if some were more known, appear to have the inside track on hearing their names called in Minnesota.
The 2009 squad did it on home soil in North Dakota, winning gold mainly thanks to 17-year-old Jack Campbell's arrival on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with, the precursor to the following season when he would capture championships at the 2010 Under-20 and again the Under-18 tourney in Belarus.
This time, the USA team, not considered by most as exceptional as the force of nature that blew through the field a year ago, got the goaltending from new star John Gibson, and then a host of balanced, opportunistic two-way play by the rest of the team led by forwards J.T. Miller (leading scorer with 13 points in six games), Reid Boucher (top goal-getter with eight), Robbie Russo (captain and strong two-way performance- eight points, +5 rating) and of course, the heroics of Rocco Grimaldi, who may not have shot out the lights on the scoreboard, but made myriad contributions to the championship in other areas.
Still, Team Sweden came to within just 1:29 of capturing that country's first gold medal in Under-18 tournament history (remarkable that the Tre Kronor have never accomplished this feat given Sweden's status as a two-time Olympic champion and global hockey power).
The defense corps, led by Jonas Brodin and captain Oscar Klefbom, performed in outstanding fashion throughout the tourney. Along with Rasmus Bengtsson and Albin Blomkvist, they formed one of the most effective top-four back line units you will see in hockey. The Swedish D didn't make many mistakes, but unfortunately when they did, it resulted in a spectacularly devastating loss at the hands of the Americans in overtime.
Russia captured bronze, and got a ridiculous offensive explosion from forward Nikita Kucherov, scoring 11 goals and 21 points in just 8 games. It was Alexander Ovechkin-like production, and the enigmatic winger certainly succeeded in raising his stock for the 2011 draft. Just how much, remains to be seen, however. More on Kucherov later.
Other big stories for the Russians were the performances of 2012 eligibles Nail Yakupov (6 goals, 13 points) and Mikhail Grigorenko (4 goals, 18 points) in seven games. Yakupov started slowly, but came on strong in the final couple of games of the the preliminary round and in the last two against Sweden and Canada. Grigorenko was consistently excellent throughout, and we could be looking at a possible 1-2 Russian class of Yakupov and Grigorenko or vice versa just as we saw in 2004 with Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.
Of course, if Canadian stud defender Ryan Murray has anything to say about it, he'll crash the top-two party in 2012. He was tremendous as the captain and as a stalwart dual-threat on the back end. Although Ryan Murphy won top defenseman honors with a brilliant 13-point performance to set a Team Canada scoring record (that's right- forwards too- Murphy scored more points than any Canadian player in U18 tourney history- wow!), it took Murphy's four-point day in a losing cause for the bronze medal to secure the honors, otherwise, it just might have been Murray.
Once again, the history of the U18 tourney having positive and negative effects on the upcoming draft class proved true, and scouts are no doubt eagerly anticipating the race to 2012, with so many intriguing story lines emerging in Germany.
Now, let's look at some players who helped and hurt themselves in this tournament in our view. We can't dedicate this space to each and every one, so consider this the cliff's notes version.
Risers
Nikita Kucherov, F Russia- We're going to start calling him "Midas" because everything he touched turned to gold. Unbelievable offensive performance by one of the more skilled prospects in the entire class, but who hurt his standing this season by looking disinterested and acting at times petulant in earlier tournaments. Kucherov saved his best for last, putting on a tour-de-force that no doubt will have some NHL teams who do not fear drafting out of Europe readjusting their previous thinking on him. Before the tourney we would have thought there was no way Kucherov would be a first-round pick, but if you're a club picking in the final few spots of this draft, why wouldn't try to swing for the fences? If he does drop into the second, the wait won't be a long one. Showed enough game-breaking speed, quick hands and an absolutely serial killer instinct when it came to finishing off chances.
Ryan Murphy, D Canada- When you've been one of the most talked-about prospects for the top-10 of the NHL draft all season, is it actually possible to raise your stock? Well, the Aurora, Ontario native and Kitchener Rangers star did it in Germany. The production was record-setting in itself, but it was how Murphy scored the points that had tongues a-wagging. Whether firing up the ice like he had rockets on his skates, or slithering through defenses while showing off several gears and superlative edge control/balance or making 360-degree spin moves and blind passes on the stick tape of teammates, Murphy was as dynamic as they come. Bruins fans who were hoping he would fall to the ninth spot now can only hope that if he is Boston's target, that the team can move up to secure him, because we just don't see him dropping very far out of the top-five (if at all even) after the kind of season, OHL playoffs and now Under-18 performance he just had. In fact, B2011DW wouldn't be at all surprised if the New Jersey Devils grabbed him as high as fourth overall. Sure, it will depend on who drops to them, but for a team who knew exactly what it had with Scott Niedermayer for over a decade, this kid's high-end offensive chops aren't far off.
J.T. Miller, C USA- One of the bigger disappointments this season for the U.S. NTDP because his production never seemed to be commensurate with his excellent physical tools, Miller finally broke through with the kind of dominant, consistent scoring performance scouts have been waiting for. The 6-1 center from Ohio scored four goals (and some big ones at that) and was a consistent passer and playmaker. The top line of Miller, Boucher and Grimaldi gave other teams fits throughout the tourney and Miller was often the one who found himself with the time and space to make things happen with. To his credit, he did. It helped to have a linemate in Boucher who was shooting the lights out in critical situations, but Miller looked and played like a solid first-round pick. Someone who liked his tools but was concerned with the lack of production just might have seen enough to grab him top-20. Even if he slips out of that bracket, we can't imagine he'd miss on the opening 30 picks. Too much talent and upside there.
Jonas Brodin, D Sweden- The controller; we were pretty impressed at how smoothly and effectively Brodin took charge of the Swedish defense corps, turning them into the prettiest transition unit in the entire field. The way Sweden broke out of their end was poetry in motion, and it all started with Brodin who isn't a flashy player (just one assist in four games), but seems to see the ice and think many steps ahead of everyone else like a chess grandmaster. He's got the head and feet to orchestrate the attack, even if he lacks the strength and overpowering shot to be a big point getter. If intelligent puck movers are at a premium, then don't expect Brodin to last very long on June 24th- he's slick and when it comes down to it, a pretty commanding presence. He doesn't get enough credit for what he brings to the table in our view.
Mark Scheifele, C Canada- Young colt lived up to his Barrie namesake with a very good offensive performance. Scored one of the more memorable goals of anyone in the tourney against Finland when he read a bungled pass, split the defense, fought off a hook from behind and still managed to put the puck in the net with a nice backhand deke. 6-3 guys don't typically move the way he does with that ability to separate, so there is a lot of raw material to work with. At about 175, he's nowhere near as strong as he needs to be. However, he more than solidified a first-round draft grade in our view. He's a poor man's Ryan Johansen at this stage we feel- won't go as high, but his progress and potentially high ceiling will see him picked ahead of other higher-profile players who are bigger names and have been in draft discussions longer. Classic guy who came into the U18s with some questions to answer and passed with flying colors. Happens every year.
Joel Armia, F Finland- Took charge up front for Finland and proved himself a solid first-round selection with his offensive performance. His big frame needs work to add mass and strength, but he's got a long stride and the ability to generate speed and separation. He's still a little gangly and not overly strong on his skates, but getting there. A vicious killer between the hashmarks- wants the puck and knows what to do with it when he gets it. One of the best pure goal scorers in the draft and impressed us with his vision and playmaking skills in this tourney as well. Creative and a better puck distributor than we gave him credit for. Not very physical, but not a soft player, either. Uses his trunk and long limbs to create space and bull his way to the net. Doesn't speak English very well yet, but uses two very important words often: "puck" and "score". His effort without the puck is what is holding him back from a top-10 selection in our view. He can be lackadaisical and is inconsistent in his backchecking efforts. If its a maturity thing, he could be a homerun pick, but if he's only motivated offensively, then he's a one-dimensional guy and may never be as good a player as he should be.
Victor Rask, C Sweden- Got his sliding value going in the other direction with a very good preliminary round performance, especially against Canada to earn the top seed in group. Big, offensively-savy centerman who isn't a great skater but gets from point A to B well enough. He'll get more balanced and stronger on his skates, and while he'll never be a speed demon, he goes to the net with some power. Soft hands for passing and can unleash a good, heavy shot. Not much of a showing against the USA in the gold medal game, but we're grading the overall tournament performance and he did some nice things reminiscent of what scouts were expecting from him after his performance in this same tournament a year ago. Will some team take him in the 1st round? Possibly- don't bet against it. However, his season overall is still a disappointment given the expectations he had coming in. Good rebound, but he won't get anywhere near the bounce of a Kucherov, for example.
Reid Boucher, F USA- Gutsy little scorer found the back of the net eight times in the tournament, which wasn't at the top of the charts, but his timing was tremendous. Michigan State recruit is undersized and not all that fast a skater, but he more than makes up with it for his natural anticipation and knack for finding open ice and a wicked shot that he can unleash from anywhere. He did this at the Five Nations in February and raised a few eyebrows, but the encore performance on an even bigger stage should have done enough to see him secure second-round status. Scorers like Boucher don't grow on trees, and while he's not the showman Grimaldi is in terms of being noticeable on every shift, he's highly dangerous and just knows how to be clutch. Also led his team in plus/minus with +9, so he's responsible defensively and kills penalties, too. One of Ron Rolston's go-to guys who delivered.
John Gibson, G USA- What more can we say about this guy that we haven't already? Super size, quickness and technique. Makes things look easy when they aren't. But the best thing about him is his calm and poise. He weathered the storm of a Canada comeback yesterday to secure an overtime win, then hung in with his team down a couple of goals to make every stop the rest of the way in yet another overtime victory to clinch gold. We were looking for him to step out from behind Campbell's international shadow, and the Pittsburgh native did precisely that. Awesome performance from the tournament's top netminder, and he's all but sewn up status as the first goaltender off the board in June.
Robbie Russo, D USA- It's no secret that B2011DW was pretty critical of Russo's performance during earlier viewings of him this season, and we weren't hearing great things about him from sources either. But, he pulled it together in time to have an excellent tournament befitting of some of the hype. He's headed to Notre Dame next season and should make a pretty immediate impact if he plays in the NCAA like he did in Germany. Smart, crisp puck mover all tournament long and worked with Connor Murphy to set up the winning goal against Sweden. Wasn't as strong as the tourney went on as he was in the beginning, but what can we say? He at least looked like the PMD some circles were hyping him as.
Connor Murphy, D USA- This was a make-or-break tourney for Murphy to land in the top-60 and he looks to have made it. Big, talented two-way defender who won't put up a ton of points, but is an effective point man with a big shot. Miami University recruit is staying in his home state to play for the Redhawks, and the only real questions he needs to answer are ones about his durability. Kid can play and looks to have more offensive potential than his dad, Gord, who was a solid NHL stay-at-homer in his day.
Dmitrij Jaskin, F CZE- Power winger helped himself with four goals in five games, showing off his wicked release and powerful shot. Heavy feet, yes, but competes hard and is a physical player with a North American flavor to his game already. Below average skaters always have it in tough to make it in the NHL, which is a skating man's league, but when they are big, strong, intelligent and passionate about the game the way Jaskin is, they usually find a way to make it. If he could get a little faster he has top-six potential for sure.
Fallers
Tyler Biggs, F USA- Tough tournament for a kid who is unfairly becoming a whipping boy, but we also have to call it the way we see it. He hurt his team with way too many penalties. Now in fairness, some of the calls that went against him were the classic- he's bigger (no pun intended) than the other guy and the hits looked worse than they were- type infractions that tend to get whistled more during international play. However, he also took his share of lazy, undisciplined calls and that's what drives us crazy. The roughing call he took against Canada just after Boucher made it 4-1 was particularly galling because it was completely unnecessary and also sparked that team's comeback. Biggs is a powerful skater with a heavy shot, but we didn't see him creating much on his own offensively other than scoring the winning goal against Canada in OT that several onlookers felt goaltender Malcolm Subban should have stopped. Biggs was unfairly rated too high by Central scouting at mid-term and he's the easy target right now because he didn't produce consistently while others on his squad did. Right or wrong, fair or unfair- it is what it is.
Joachim Nermark, F SWE- Ugh. Just a disappointing showing for a guy who was tremendous at the Ivan Hlinka but has been all downhill since. One goal in five games...invisible against the USA. One scout we talked to said, 'We have no use for him." Ouch. He may yet be a top-60 pick because of what he did in Slovakia, but we wouldn't touch him in that range based on what we saw here. Risky pick and we're not even sure of the payoff. Did not help himself at all.
Samu Perhonen, G FIN- Brutal is a polite way to put this promising netminder's performance. He was shaky from jump street against Canada and never recovered, stopping a putrid 87.5% of his shots and going 2-2 in the process. We thought this cat would challenge Gibson for top netminder honors at the 2011 draft, and now we don't even think Perhonen will be the first European picked (Magnus Hellberg). He's still a top-two or three-round pick, but after seeing him and Gibson in the same competition, they seem light years apart. Perhonen's lack of poise was what was particularly troublesome- just couldn't seem to make the big save when his team needed it. However, Perhonen still has the size and athletic ability/upside to be a high-end stopper in the NHL one day. If he slides, that could be great news for the team that grabs him.
Reece Scarlett, D CAN- Has showed some impressive traits and potential in flashes, but this was a tough tourney for the WHL defender. He's not where he needs to be in terms of his physical development and strength. He also made some bad pinches and decisions that proved costly. Seemed hesitant at times and was caught in no man's land. Real smooth stride and mobility, but in this game, that split second delayed reaction will burn you even if you skate well. He wasn't quite ready for primetime and opponents exploited him.
Daniel Catenacci, F CAN- Just two assists for this speedy, skilled and even dynamic forward were a major disappointment. Capable of so much more, yet went invisible for long stretches. On top of that, took a lot of bad penalties and never could seem to get out of his own way. All of this from a guy some on the internet are talking about as a potential first-rounder in June? We don't think so. Soo Greyhounds teammate Nick Cousins skated circles around him (4-4-8) and was one of the guys who emerged as a big-time clutch performer.
Miikka Salomaki, F FIN- We weren't very impressed with this guy's NHL upside, but kept hearing that teams were keeping an eye out for him. Well, after watching him at the WJC over the winter and on video at the U18s, we can't see him being a top-three round pick. He might get there, but that could be a mistake. Doesn't do anything particularly well, and just seems like a solid Euro leaguer and nothing more.
B2011DW will be back with a look at some sleepers who may have emerged from the shadows a bit, and even if some were more known, appear to have the inside track on hearing their names called in Minnesota.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
World Under-18 Championship Day 6: Preliminary round notes
The World Under-18 Championship preliminary round is in the books. We'll see quarterfinal games tomorrow: Russia and Finland go at it, and Canada and Germany, with USA and Sweden earning byes to the semifinal games as the Group A and B winners.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
World Under-18 Championship Day 3: Canada- Finland observations
Team Canada had a wild third period to overcome a 3-2 deficit and win a late shootout with Team Finland by a 5-4 final to push their record to 2-0 at the World Under-18 Championship in Dresden, Germany.
Mark Scheifele scored a highlight reel breakaway goal to tie the game with abnout 10 minutes left, and then Nick Cousins deflected a point shot from captain and 2012-eligible Ryan Murray 45 seconds later to gain the lead. Colin Smith then sniped a high shot that beat Samu Perhonen (on a shot we think the Finnish goalie should have had) to make it 5-3. However, Markus Granlund got a late power play tally, but the Finns couldn't solve Malcolm Subban (another 2012 prospect) and Canada prevailed.
It was a good game and both sides played hard. We've been critical of Joel Armia on this blog space, but today, he looked every bit a scoring stud and top-15 pick for the 2011 draft. Another impressive player for FInland was 2012 eligible defenseman Olli Maatta.
Canada next faces Norway, while the Finns have a Scandinavian showdown tomorrow vs. Sweden. That one we're going to see as well!
We're going to stay off the 2012 eligibles for now and will focus our notes on the 2011 draft candidates who stood out both positively and in a few cases, not-so-positively.
Mark Scheifele, C- Played a good game, hustling and making plays. However, his signature moment came with 10 minutes left in the third period, when he scored a brilliant goal to tie the score at 3-3. Standing in the high slot while Finland had possession in Canada's zone, he anticipated that a pass to the point was going to go off target and took off like he was shot from a rocket, chasing the puck down near the red line at center ice and splitting the defense of Henri Auvinen and Ville Pokka. As he gained a step and tried to separate, Auvinen hooked him, but Scheifele fought off the stick with an impressive display of strength, maintained control of the puck and then got Perhonen to bite on a quick fake. After the Finnish netminder laid out to make a poke check and missed, Scheifele tucked it to the backhand and put it home. Plays like that one are why the Barrie Colts pivot's stock has exploded over the second half of the season and why he looks like a surefire first-round pick in June.
Ryan Murphy, D- Continued to show why he's the best offensive defenseman in the draft. We forgot for a second that he switched to No. 14 for the tourney (24 with Kitchener) and were watching as this Canada player outskated about three Finnish players in the neutral zone, gained the line and made a nice net drive that didn't result in a goal, but certainly caught our attention. We weren't surprised then, when consulting the lineup sheet and seeing that No. 14 was indeed Murphy. It was a signature type of move from him. He scored a goal in the second period to tie it at two apiece when he zoomed up the ice with Colin Smith on a 2-on-1, took a sauce pass on the forehand and effortlessly snapped it into the net behind Perhonen in full rush. We didn't key much on Murphy's defense, but he assisted on the first goal of the game scored by Eric Locke and his offensive prowess was in full bloom today.
Mark McNeill, C- Big horse has been impressive for Canada in the tourney so far. Anyone who thinks he doesn't have upside hasn't been paying close attention to what McNeill brings to the table (82 points for Prince Albert this season) and he's making a legitimate run to a potential top-10 selection in June. McNeill drew primary assist on the Locke goal, taking Murphy's point pass and getting it hard to the net where Locke was able to convert the rebound. But, what impressed us was McNeill's defense and discipline. He moved the puck smartly, backchecked diligently and didn't force things that weren't there. On offense, he protects the puck well and sees the ice like a true playmaker. Stock watch: goin' up.
Travis Ewanyk, C- Another kid whose draft stock is on the rise, Ewanyk finished his checks all game long and played with determination. He won the faceoff that led to Cousins' goal to put Canada ahead in the third after Scheifele tied it. His skating stride seems a bit choppy, but he has a wide base and seems to get where he needs to. This guy is one of those gritty, intense players you win with. Kept the pedal to the floor the whole game and came through with a huge assist in a key offensive zone draw. Watch this guy.
Colin Smith, F- He may be small, but he has some serious wheels and just seemed to make plays every time he was in position to do so. Made a beautiful feed to Murphy on a 2-on-1, and then sniped one that seemed to fool Perhonen for what was the game-winner. Canada needs lesser lights like Smith to make an impact in this tournament to take the pressure off of some of their bigger name guys up front, and Smith did that.
Alan Quine, C- Quiet game for No. 18. Didn't do much to stand out, but made several nice passes that show off his outstanding vision and soft hands. Not much of a physical player. Quine has some pretty good wheels and has the ability to get it done with puck possession, but if this game was an indicator of his season overall, you can understand why his stock has fallen.
Joel Armia, F- Finland's best player today had it going offensively with a goal and two helpers. His first assist was a nifty pass, but his goal had scouts talking no doubt. Standing alone off to Subban's right while on the power play (someone blew their assignment), he got the puck and ripped it. Subban made a terrific diving save, going from left to right, but flopped out of the net and on the ice while Armia chased his own rebound, took it around the back of the net and then banked it off of one of Canada's players scrambling to cover for Subban, and the puck found its way into the net. That was just a natural scorer's play and Armia's poise and confidence to pull that off is worth noting. He's got a long, languid stride that makes it appear he isn't skating hard, but he does cover a lot of ground. With his natural height, when he gets stronger and adds weight, Armia will be a load to contain.
Markus Granlund, F- Scored a late power play goal to get Finland within one, but not overly noticeable in this one. Average skater, has some creativity. Nowhere near the pure talent and prospect his older brother Mikael is, but could become a serviceable NHLer in time.
Henri Auvinen, D- Unfortunately, he stood out more for when Scheifele blew by him on the way to the net and then fought off Auvinen's attempted hook. It was the defenseman who ended up sliding on the ice and into the backwall on the play, while Scheifele went to the net and put it in to tie the score. Not much else to judge Auvinen by, but he took the wrong angle to the puck on that play and paid for it.
Samu Perhonen, G- Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice. Just a poor game overall for Perhonen and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds or if backup Richard Ullberg, who was a disaster this season after coming in as the name goalie prospect coming out of Finland, gets a shot. We expect it will be Perhonen against Sweden, but he might have a short leash.
Mark Scheifele scored a highlight reel breakaway goal to tie the game with abnout 10 minutes left, and then Nick Cousins deflected a point shot from captain and 2012-eligible Ryan Murray 45 seconds later to gain the lead. Colin Smith then sniped a high shot that beat Samu Perhonen (on a shot we think the Finnish goalie should have had) to make it 5-3. However, Markus Granlund got a late power play tally, but the Finns couldn't solve Malcolm Subban (another 2012 prospect) and Canada prevailed.
It was a good game and both sides played hard. We've been critical of Joel Armia on this blog space, but today, he looked every bit a scoring stud and top-15 pick for the 2011 draft. Another impressive player for FInland was 2012 eligible defenseman Olli Maatta.
Canada next faces Norway, while the Finns have a Scandinavian showdown tomorrow vs. Sweden. That one we're going to see as well!
We're going to stay off the 2012 eligibles for now and will focus our notes on the 2011 draft candidates who stood out both positively and in a few cases, not-so-positively.
Mark Scheifele, C- Played a good game, hustling and making plays. However, his signature moment came with 10 minutes left in the third period, when he scored a brilliant goal to tie the score at 3-3. Standing in the high slot while Finland had possession in Canada's zone, he anticipated that a pass to the point was going to go off target and took off like he was shot from a rocket, chasing the puck down near the red line at center ice and splitting the defense of Henri Auvinen and Ville Pokka. As he gained a step and tried to separate, Auvinen hooked him, but Scheifele fought off the stick with an impressive display of strength, maintained control of the puck and then got Perhonen to bite on a quick fake. After the Finnish netminder laid out to make a poke check and missed, Scheifele tucked it to the backhand and put it home. Plays like that one are why the Barrie Colts pivot's stock has exploded over the second half of the season and why he looks like a surefire first-round pick in June.
Ryan Murphy, D- Continued to show why he's the best offensive defenseman in the draft. We forgot for a second that he switched to No. 14 for the tourney (24 with Kitchener) and were watching as this Canada player outskated about three Finnish players in the neutral zone, gained the line and made a nice net drive that didn't result in a goal, but certainly caught our attention. We weren't surprised then, when consulting the lineup sheet and seeing that No. 14 was indeed Murphy. It was a signature type of move from him. He scored a goal in the second period to tie it at two apiece when he zoomed up the ice with Colin Smith on a 2-on-1, took a sauce pass on the forehand and effortlessly snapped it into the net behind Perhonen in full rush. We didn't key much on Murphy's defense, but he assisted on the first goal of the game scored by Eric Locke and his offensive prowess was in full bloom today.
Mark McNeill, C- Big horse has been impressive for Canada in the tourney so far. Anyone who thinks he doesn't have upside hasn't been paying close attention to what McNeill brings to the table (82 points for Prince Albert this season) and he's making a legitimate run to a potential top-10 selection in June. McNeill drew primary assist on the Locke goal, taking Murphy's point pass and getting it hard to the net where Locke was able to convert the rebound. But, what impressed us was McNeill's defense and discipline. He moved the puck smartly, backchecked diligently and didn't force things that weren't there. On offense, he protects the puck well and sees the ice like a true playmaker. Stock watch: goin' up.
Travis Ewanyk, C- Another kid whose draft stock is on the rise, Ewanyk finished his checks all game long and played with determination. He won the faceoff that led to Cousins' goal to put Canada ahead in the third after Scheifele tied it. His skating stride seems a bit choppy, but he has a wide base and seems to get where he needs to. This guy is one of those gritty, intense players you win with. Kept the pedal to the floor the whole game and came through with a huge assist in a key offensive zone draw. Watch this guy.
Colin Smith, F- He may be small, but he has some serious wheels and just seemed to make plays every time he was in position to do so. Made a beautiful feed to Murphy on a 2-on-1, and then sniped one that seemed to fool Perhonen for what was the game-winner. Canada needs lesser lights like Smith to make an impact in this tournament to take the pressure off of some of their bigger name guys up front, and Smith did that.
Alan Quine, C- Quiet game for No. 18. Didn't do much to stand out, but made several nice passes that show off his outstanding vision and soft hands. Not much of a physical player. Quine has some pretty good wheels and has the ability to get it done with puck possession, but if this game was an indicator of his season overall, you can understand why his stock has fallen.
Joel Armia, F- Finland's best player today had it going offensively with a goal and two helpers. His first assist was a nifty pass, but his goal had scouts talking no doubt. Standing alone off to Subban's right while on the power play (someone blew their assignment), he got the puck and ripped it. Subban made a terrific diving save, going from left to right, but flopped out of the net and on the ice while Armia chased his own rebound, took it around the back of the net and then banked it off of one of Canada's players scrambling to cover for Subban, and the puck found its way into the net. That was just a natural scorer's play and Armia's poise and confidence to pull that off is worth noting. He's got a long, languid stride that makes it appear he isn't skating hard, but he does cover a lot of ground. With his natural height, when he gets stronger and adds weight, Armia will be a load to contain.
Markus Granlund, F- Scored a late power play goal to get Finland within one, but not overly noticeable in this one. Average skater, has some creativity. Nowhere near the pure talent and prospect his older brother Mikael is, but could become a serviceable NHLer in time.
Henri Auvinen, D- Unfortunately, he stood out more for when Scheifele blew by him on the way to the net and then fought off Auvinen's attempted hook. It was the defenseman who ended up sliding on the ice and into the backwall on the play, while Scheifele went to the net and put it in to tie the score. Not much else to judge Auvinen by, but he took the wrong angle to the puck on that play and paid for it.
Samu Perhonen, G- Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice. Just a poor game overall for Perhonen and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds or if backup Richard Ullberg, who was a disaster this season after coming in as the name goalie prospect coming out of Finland, gets a shot. We expect it will be Perhonen against Sweden, but he might have a short leash.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Central European Skaters rankings: The Persian Prince rises
THe NHL's Central Scouting Service released its final rankings on Monday, and this blog took a close look at the North American prospects. Now, it is time to turn the attention to the list of European players available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
It looks like another big year for Sweden, with six of Central's top-10 Euros coming out of that Scandinavian hockey factory.
Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson kept his spot atop the rankings and is still a candidate to go first overall in the draft, as the Edmonton Oilers hold the No. 1 selection. The 6-3, 200-pounder is a powerful skater who is smooth with his stride and footwork. He has very good hands and vision for advancing the puck and hitting teammates with speed coming out of their zone. He plays a smart positional game and has a big shot. He can run the power play effectively as both a distributor and triggerman.
Larsson made it to the Swedish Elite League at age 16, just the third defenseman to do so behind Calle Johansson and Victor Hedman. As such, Larsson's game has been nitpicked a lot, much like Sean Couturier's has, taking a little of the bloom off the rose.
At the same time, this kid is so solid and mature, it's hard to imagine he'll fall much if at all in St. Paul. The challenge he faces with Edmonton is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wide fan and media favorite. A lot of folks are going to want the Oilers to take the slight but supremely skilled center. At the same time, Larsson is a safer pick, even if he doesn't have RNH's dynamic, game-breaking element.
Countryman Mika Zibanejad, whom we like to call the "Persian Prince of Sweden" because of his Iranian (and Finnish on his mother's side) parentage, is second on Central's list and deserves to be there. We could argue that no player is generating more buzz and interest right now than Zibanejad is. He broke into Djurgarden's SEL club after beginning the year on the J20 squad and played extremely well against the men.
Zibanejad (aka "Z-Bad" by THN's Ryan Kennedy) plays with some real fire and passion. He's a good skater with an extra gear, has a quick stick and a lethal shot. With his 6-2, 191-pound frame, he plays a physical style and is going to get bigger and stronger as he continues to mature. We will have a more detailed analysis of Zibanejad soon, as he will be profiled in this blog's next "case for" post, but with 5 goals and 9 points in 26 games, he showed enough to be a potential top-10 pick in June.
Another Swede rounds out the top-three, with defenseman Jonas Brodin of Färjestad locking it down with his very solid all-around game and intelligence. Brodin didn't score a goal in 42 games this season, but his game is more than his stats indicate. He's highly mobile, with the poise and vision to make plays all over the ice. He's not an aggressive, attacking-type player but is going to make a team defense dangerous because he has the smarts and wheels to jump into the play when he needs to, but is also going to make all the plays defensively. He's extremely light and needing to add strength and mass to his 6-1 frame, but along with Zibanejad and fellow Färjestad defender Oscar Klefbom, Brodin will be watched closely at the Under-18 Championship tourney this week and next.
Big Finnish forward Joel Armia is next on Central's list at four. Many would argue he should be ahead of Brodin and even Zibanejad, but we have no problem with where he is. At 6-3, 191 he has terrific size for a winger and is a fluid skater who can handle the puck well and beat defenders with an array of impressive 1-on-1 moves. He's got a real big shot and release, but can also handle the puck well in traffic and is effective with the deke. Where he loses his luster with us a bit is in his overall defensive game (needs major work) and tendency to fade and disappear for stretches. He got off to a very hot start and still finished with a respectable 18 goals in 48 games- it's just that we feel Armia is one of the more overrated prospects in this draft because he still gets a ton of credit for what he did early on, but his supporters don't want to talk about how he seemed to hit the wall at mid-season. Make no mistake- he's a legitimate draft talent and could end up being a stud NHLer in time. But right now, he's pretty one-dimensional and we don't see what all the top-10 fuss is about. Now, if he rips it up at the U18s, that will be huge for him, but inside the top-10, we wouldn't be comfortable making the recommendation to take Armia there. After 10, it's on just about anywhere. High upside with this one, but there's a bust factor, too. His body language and playing style reminds us a lot of Mikko Lehtonen, whom the Bruins recently traded to the Wild after he didn't work out in Providence.
Czech power forward Dmitri Jaskin checks in at five, and he's worthy of that ranking based on what we hear. A knee injury kept him out of the World Jrs. in Buffalo and he missed February's Five Nations tourney as well, but he's in Germany with a chance to make a run for a top-20 or top-15 selection in June. His skating is a drawback, but everything else about the kid- size (6-1, 200), hands, shot, passion- is all there. He's the best prospect coming out of the Czech Republic this season and bears watching. He'd be ranked much higher if not for his plodding skating and lack of agility, but he goes hard to the net and makes things happen.
Oscar Klefbom is an intriguing defender rising up the various draft boards because of his size and offensive upside. Although not the all-around defender his teammate Brodin is, Klefbom nevertheless is more of a visible presence on the ice and does more to key the attack. In fact, we would not at all be surprised if Klefbom ends up getting picked ahead of Brodin in the NHL draft. The U18 will obviously make or break that kind of scenario happening. But at 6-4, 200 pounds, this excellent skater and skilled player loves to join the rush and has strong offensive instincts. One player to watch for the 2011 draft as a darkhorse to be an off-the-board pick.
Miikka Sälomaki and Joachim Nermark are seventh and eighth on the list. We liked Sälomaki at the WJC- he was involved and played with a lot of energy for Team Finland. We've wondered about his offensive upside at the NHL level, but this guy just keeps hanging around and playing well in international tournaments. He may not have high-end skills, but compensates with his anticipation and hustle. He's only average-sized and needs to get a lot stronger, but played well for Kärpät in the SM-Liiga and will be a solid, if unspectacular prospect for the team that drafts him.
Nermark has been a disappointment after looking so good at the Ivan Hlinka in August. He could drop some at the draft as a result of his struggles in finding the back of the net and putting up the points this season playing on Linköping's J20 team for much of the season (he played 12 SEL games- 1 assist). That said, he's one of those players with the raw talent and scoring intangibles to get back on track and evolve into a beast, so one team just might take the plunge earlier than expected. He's a good skater with a 6-1 frame and room to grow. His soft hands and knack for threading the needle is impressive as his quick release and ability to score, but he didn't finish enough in his draft season with 8 goals, 26 points on the junior squad. Nermark is another one who could get a big boost in Germany if he can get back to his Slovakia-like dominance.
Markus Granlund, brother of Wild prospect and top-10 selection last June Mikael Granlund, is on the list at 9th overall. We're not sure about this one, to be honest. Granlund is a solid player, but he's not his older brother. He's also undersized and is a better skater than Mikael, but still lacks that top-end speed scouts want to see in smaller guys. He doesn't have his older brother's pure offensive hockey sense and vision however. He was productive on HIFK's junior team with 20 goals and 52 points in 40 games, and he has been very good in 15 international games this season, posting 11-10-21 totals. Could be flying under the radar a bit, but we always wonder about expectations about brothers when one is so clearly a top prospect in Mikael's case. Markus could be a solid complimentary player, but based on what we're hearing, he doesn't have the star potential.
Rounding out the top-10 is defenseman Rasmus Bengtsson, who spent the season in the Allsvenskan with Rögle. At 6-2, 196, he's still filling out. He's a good skater with solid all-around skills and some two-way potential. He can move the puck effectively and has a cannon shot. He just needs to keep working on his defensive awareness and decision-making, but held his own against men in the Swedish second division.
Swiss forward Gregory Hoffman just missed the top-10, but he should probably be in there. There's a lot to like about the skilled, intelligent pivot who just seems to be able to make the big play when his team needs it. He's up eight spots to 11 from 19 at mid-season, but we still like Hofmann a lot and feel he's one of the more underrated Euros in the draft.
We'll be back later with more of a look at the European players on the list outside the top-11.
It looks like another big year for Sweden, with six of Central's top-10 Euros coming out of that Scandinavian hockey factory.
Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson kept his spot atop the rankings and is still a candidate to go first overall in the draft, as the Edmonton Oilers hold the No. 1 selection. The 6-3, 200-pounder is a powerful skater who is smooth with his stride and footwork. He has very good hands and vision for advancing the puck and hitting teammates with speed coming out of their zone. He plays a smart positional game and has a big shot. He can run the power play effectively as both a distributor and triggerman.
Larsson made it to the Swedish Elite League at age 16, just the third defenseman to do so behind Calle Johansson and Victor Hedman. As such, Larsson's game has been nitpicked a lot, much like Sean Couturier's has, taking a little of the bloom off the rose.
At the same time, this kid is so solid and mature, it's hard to imagine he'll fall much if at all in St. Paul. The challenge he faces with Edmonton is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wide fan and media favorite. A lot of folks are going to want the Oilers to take the slight but supremely skilled center. At the same time, Larsson is a safer pick, even if he doesn't have RNH's dynamic, game-breaking element.
Countryman Mika Zibanejad, whom we like to call the "Persian Prince of Sweden" because of his Iranian (and Finnish on his mother's side) parentage, is second on Central's list and deserves to be there. We could argue that no player is generating more buzz and interest right now than Zibanejad is. He broke into Djurgarden's SEL club after beginning the year on the J20 squad and played extremely well against the men.
Zibanejad (aka "Z-Bad" by THN's Ryan Kennedy) plays with some real fire and passion. He's a good skater with an extra gear, has a quick stick and a lethal shot. With his 6-2, 191-pound frame, he plays a physical style and is going to get bigger and stronger as he continues to mature. We will have a more detailed analysis of Zibanejad soon, as he will be profiled in this blog's next "case for" post, but with 5 goals and 9 points in 26 games, he showed enough to be a potential top-10 pick in June.
Another Swede rounds out the top-three, with defenseman Jonas Brodin of Färjestad locking it down with his very solid all-around game and intelligence. Brodin didn't score a goal in 42 games this season, but his game is more than his stats indicate. He's highly mobile, with the poise and vision to make plays all over the ice. He's not an aggressive, attacking-type player but is going to make a team defense dangerous because he has the smarts and wheels to jump into the play when he needs to, but is also going to make all the plays defensively. He's extremely light and needing to add strength and mass to his 6-1 frame, but along with Zibanejad and fellow Färjestad defender Oscar Klefbom, Brodin will be watched closely at the Under-18 Championship tourney this week and next.
Big Finnish forward Joel Armia is next on Central's list at four. Many would argue he should be ahead of Brodin and even Zibanejad, but we have no problem with where he is. At 6-3, 191 he has terrific size for a winger and is a fluid skater who can handle the puck well and beat defenders with an array of impressive 1-on-1 moves. He's got a real big shot and release, but can also handle the puck well in traffic and is effective with the deke. Where he loses his luster with us a bit is in his overall defensive game (needs major work) and tendency to fade and disappear for stretches. He got off to a very hot start and still finished with a respectable 18 goals in 48 games- it's just that we feel Armia is one of the more overrated prospects in this draft because he still gets a ton of credit for what he did early on, but his supporters don't want to talk about how he seemed to hit the wall at mid-season. Make no mistake- he's a legitimate draft talent and could end up being a stud NHLer in time. But right now, he's pretty one-dimensional and we don't see what all the top-10 fuss is about. Now, if he rips it up at the U18s, that will be huge for him, but inside the top-10, we wouldn't be comfortable making the recommendation to take Armia there. After 10, it's on just about anywhere. High upside with this one, but there's a bust factor, too. His body language and playing style reminds us a lot of Mikko Lehtonen, whom the Bruins recently traded to the Wild after he didn't work out in Providence.
Czech power forward Dmitri Jaskin checks in at five, and he's worthy of that ranking based on what we hear. A knee injury kept him out of the World Jrs. in Buffalo and he missed February's Five Nations tourney as well, but he's in Germany with a chance to make a run for a top-20 or top-15 selection in June. His skating is a drawback, but everything else about the kid- size (6-1, 200), hands, shot, passion- is all there. He's the best prospect coming out of the Czech Republic this season and bears watching. He'd be ranked much higher if not for his plodding skating and lack of agility, but he goes hard to the net and makes things happen.
Oscar Klefbom is an intriguing defender rising up the various draft boards because of his size and offensive upside. Although not the all-around defender his teammate Brodin is, Klefbom nevertheless is more of a visible presence on the ice and does more to key the attack. In fact, we would not at all be surprised if Klefbom ends up getting picked ahead of Brodin in the NHL draft. The U18 will obviously make or break that kind of scenario happening. But at 6-4, 200 pounds, this excellent skater and skilled player loves to join the rush and has strong offensive instincts. One player to watch for the 2011 draft as a darkhorse to be an off-the-board pick.
Miikka Sälomaki and Joachim Nermark are seventh and eighth on the list. We liked Sälomaki at the WJC- he was involved and played with a lot of energy for Team Finland. We've wondered about his offensive upside at the NHL level, but this guy just keeps hanging around and playing well in international tournaments. He may not have high-end skills, but compensates with his anticipation and hustle. He's only average-sized and needs to get a lot stronger, but played well for Kärpät in the SM-Liiga and will be a solid, if unspectacular prospect for the team that drafts him.
Nermark has been a disappointment after looking so good at the Ivan Hlinka in August. He could drop some at the draft as a result of his struggles in finding the back of the net and putting up the points this season playing on Linköping's J20 team for much of the season (he played 12 SEL games- 1 assist). That said, he's one of those players with the raw talent and scoring intangibles to get back on track and evolve into a beast, so one team just might take the plunge earlier than expected. He's a good skater with a 6-1 frame and room to grow. His soft hands and knack for threading the needle is impressive as his quick release and ability to score, but he didn't finish enough in his draft season with 8 goals, 26 points on the junior squad. Nermark is another one who could get a big boost in Germany if he can get back to his Slovakia-like dominance.
Markus Granlund, brother of Wild prospect and top-10 selection last June Mikael Granlund, is on the list at 9th overall. We're not sure about this one, to be honest. Granlund is a solid player, but he's not his older brother. He's also undersized and is a better skater than Mikael, but still lacks that top-end speed scouts want to see in smaller guys. He doesn't have his older brother's pure offensive hockey sense and vision however. He was productive on HIFK's junior team with 20 goals and 52 points in 40 games, and he has been very good in 15 international games this season, posting 11-10-21 totals. Could be flying under the radar a bit, but we always wonder about expectations about brothers when one is so clearly a top prospect in Mikael's case. Markus could be a solid complimentary player, but based on what we're hearing, he doesn't have the star potential.
Rounding out the top-10 is defenseman Rasmus Bengtsson, who spent the season in the Allsvenskan with Rögle. At 6-2, 196, he's still filling out. He's a good skater with solid all-around skills and some two-way potential. He can move the puck effectively and has a cannon shot. He just needs to keep working on his defensive awareness and decision-making, but held his own against men in the Swedish second division.
Swiss forward Gregory Hoffman just missed the top-10, but he should probably be in there. There's a lot to like about the skilled, intelligent pivot who just seems to be able to make the big play when his team needs it. He's up eight spots to 11 from 19 at mid-season, but we still like Hofmann a lot and feel he's one of the more underrated Euros in the draft.
We'll be back later with more of a look at the European players on the list outside the top-11.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
European draft prospects 2010-11 roundup
B2011DW has looked at the top (in our view) draft eligible players all three of the CHL's leagues and the NCAA class, so for this post, we're going to fly across the Atlantic to see how the European prospects are faring.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
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