Moose Jaw Warriors defenseman Joel Edmundson is tall and lanky, but when he fills out, he could be a nasty customer.
One of the draft's true risers along with Soo Greyhounds defender Ryan Sproul, Edmonson was playing AAA bantam a year ago, so his development is a little behind some of the other guys who have spent more time in the WHL.
We aren't talking a ton of upside with this one, but with his natural height and decent mobility, Edmundson is going to appeal to NHL teams. Case in point- he interviewed with 28 of the 30 clubs.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Ryan Sproul. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ryan Sproul. Show all posts
Friday, June 3, 2011
Friday, May 20, 2011
50 in 30: B2011DW's top-50 players for the NHL Draft
With this post, Bruins 2011 Draft Watch brings you the first of our 50 in 30- a countdown of the top-50 2011 NHL draft prospects as we see it.
The rankings are compiled based on live viewings, streams, and as always, a generous amount of opinions from our NHL sources. Unlike THN or Bob McKenzie's TSN rankings- we do not poll scouts for our rankings, but rather, take the NHL team and Red Line Report approach of doing our live and video scouting to rank order the players in terms of projected impact, and then using the comments and feedback we get as the tie-breakers and deciding votes as to where the players are cast. This is not a mock draft- it's a list of who we see being the best right now...AND those players we feel have the best chance of making an NHL splash in the long run.
No player in our top-50 is a blind association. In other words, if we didn't at least see an online stream of the player, he's not in the rankings. We fully recognize that there could be a clear top-50 candidate who isn't going to make the cut, but the integrity of our list is important enough to live with that. The flip side is that there may be a few guys in our top-50 who aren't going to make that cut come draft day. Again- it's about bringing you what we see and hear and not just lifting someone else's work.
The 21-50 will be in three separate posts between now and May 31. Then, beginning June 1, we will do a comprehensive draft profile per day from 20 on down to 1. If you read the Bruins 2010 Draft Watch blog, then you know what's in store. If you didn't, then here's Tyler Seguin's from last May.
So without further ado, here's 50 in 30- Bruins Draft Watch style!
50. Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-11, 170 7/20/1993
Unappreciated! That's the one word we keep coming back to every time we see the diminutive but highly creative center play. He's versatile with nice wheels, a quick stick and the head to play well at the highest level. Cousins needs to get stronger, but that's the way it is with most players who are undersized. Cousins was knocking on the door to the B2011DW top-50, but after watching him be one of the real straws that stirred the drink for Canada at the World Under-18s, he jumps in there, and probably could be even higher than he is. This is a player who can score for you and plays a responsible defensive game, too. There is always room in the NHL for smart, skilled little men and Cousins is just that.
49. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA) 6-0, 190 09/26/1992
One of the draft's forgotten guys because he was injured and missed a lot of time early on when draft lists forming and buzz building. Not as big as his older brother Drew (might a growth spurt be on the way), a 2nd-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2009. Good skater and hands, but his hockey sense is what makes the younger Shore a worthwhile pick in the second round at the very least. He's underrated mostly because of the missed time and production. We have to remember that he was a freshman this year, and like his brother, could have a significant jump in numbers from one year to the next. Shore plays a solid all-around game and has some upside, too.
48. Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6-4, 190 1/13/1993
Burst onto the scene this season after playing for the Jr. A Vaughan Vipers in the OJHL last year and even at the beginning of 2010-11 and was a tough view playing in the Soo. Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com knows him well and saw the emergence of this big, swift-skating, hard-shooting defender with some big upside coming. Sproul is raw, yes- but whatever issues he may have with his defense and overall game, the fact remains that this kid scored most of his 14 goals after November. The right-shooting Mississauga native was originally going to go the NCAA route, but switched gears for the OHL, which we hear was the better move for him. Ultimately, he's going to get drafted higher than most think because guys who are as big, can skate and shoot like Sproul don't grow on trees. Boom or bust- probably. But homerun potential will be too tempting for him to remain on the board for long. This kid is going to be an off-the-board selection and we liked enough of what we saw of him in the U-18s to say it will happen in the second round.
Here is more on him from Edwards. He talks Zach Bell and Gabriel Landeskog first, but Sproul stuff at the 5:05 mark
And a HockeyProspect.com interview with him as well.
47. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-11, 190 2/15/1993
If you're a regular B2011DW reader, then you know that we weren't bullish on Russo, although we heard from scouts he had solid second-round potential. We just didn't see it in some of the action we saw Russo in earlier this season, but thought it was an entirely different player in Germany for the World Under-18s. The Team USA captain was very good in helping his squad win a third consecutive gold medal- he played with a ton of confidence and brought a two-way presence that had been lacking in our view. He's mobile, smart and can move the puck. Russo succeeded in Germany because he was patient, yet aggressive. He made the right decisions and provided timely offense. He has the skill to be a second-round pick, but the question is- can he play like he did internationally, or will some of the passive, indifferent play creep back in when he goes to Notre Dame next season.
46. Phillip Danault, C Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 162 2/24/1993
Le Petit Tigre- that was former NHL coach Michel Bergeron's nickname but it works for Danault, whose father is the team's PA announcer. Danault grew up around the team and has been a key player and captain. He's a small guy whose feet never stop moving and he never quits on the play. He's a good defensive center with an active stick who is tenacious on the forecheck and brings a lot of energy, hustle and character to the mix. He's not a high-end skill guy, but makes up for it with his effort. His size is what is keeping him from going higher, but we imagine that NHL teams will love his immeasurables more than what he brings to the table offensively. A classic more than the sum of his parts player, and with Danault we keep going back to the old scouting adage that says if a kid wants to be in the NHL badly enough, he'll probably get there.
45. Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180 3/09/1993
Former 1st overall selection in the OHL draft is a blazing, dynamic, game-breaker- He's the hot dog with extra mustard and all the relish. Coming into the year, he was looking lost in the shuffle after a tough season in '09-10, but he used the Eight Nations/Ivan Hlinka as a springboard for a 26-goal, 71-point season. Excellent skater and puckhandler who is a real dangler. His father, Maurice, coached Daniel, Ryan Murphy and Barclay Goodrow among others on the high-flying York-Simcoe Express minor midget team, so the younger Catenacci comes from a real hockey background. Catenacci gets into trouble when he goes into solo mode and tries to beat the other team by himself. Takes bad penalties and needs to work on keeping his emotions in check. His defense is also lacking and as an undersized guy needs to get a lot stronger. The Bruins have another player who is pretty similar in style at least- Ryan Spooner. But make no mistake- when on his game in the offensive zone, this kid can bring it. Disappointing showing at U18s for Canada- was outshined by Soo teammate Cousins, but has a higher upside.
44. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HEA) 5-11, 193 11/05/1992
We admit that Nieto is lower on this list than he will likely go in June. Another undersized, yet prolific offensive forward with speed to burn, quick hands and a killer instinct around the net. Nieto had high expectations coming into the season, but struggled out of the gate. The player we saw in November was tentative and ineffective in dealing with the higher-end players in the Hockey East, but by March, he was looking like the NTDP standout. He's an outstanding skater with the vision, hands and instincts to score a lot. But our hesitation comes from the difficulty in transitioning to the NCAA taken with his size, which is going to be an obstacle at the highest level. If Nieto can continue to get stronger and play his high octane, aggressively attacking style, he has a chance to do something, but he is a bit risky in that he's more of a top-six scoring guy than an effective checker if he can't get it done in the pros.
43. David Honzik, G Victoriaville (QMJHL) 6-3, 195 08/09/1993
B2011DW likes this Czech goaltender quite a bit. He's huge, agile and mentally tough. Honzik really came on after struggling with the transition to the 'Q' early on, saving his best for the playoffs. He played a valiant series against super power Saint John and demonstrated adroit puck stopping skills along with mental toughness and a competitive spirit. We heard great things about Honzik from Red Line Czech scout Radim Jelinek, and much of what he said about him checked out. B2011DW has Honzik ahead of Christopher Gibson as a better pro prospect. Gibson had a very good season in Chicoutimi and is a better player on paper, but there are things we've seen and heard about him that lead to believe that in time, Honzik has the higher upside.
42. Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)6-3, 205 07/01/1993
It was a tough year for Ritchie who was starting to round into form after a sluggish start, only to be felled by a bout with mono that effectively took him out of it for the balance of the season in January. Ritchie is a big kid with a nice stride who does all the things you want from your power winger along the walls. He takes the puck to the net, shields it effectively when in possession and cycling. He's not a real baggage smasher who goes out of his way to wreck guys, but will give a hit and take one. His mitts are OK, and yet he still managed 21 goals in 49 games this season so the potential is there for him so long as he continues to play in the greasy areas of the ice. NHL teams love those power forwards
41. Reid Boucher, LW 5-9, 186 09/08/1993
Boy, do we love this kid. The Michigan State recruit is probably too low on the B2011DW list, but the size and lack of high-end speed will bring him down in the draft, lower than he should go in our view. Boucher could legally change his last name to "Money" and he'd be well within his rights to do so. He's one of these guys who will cruise along and not really be noticed until the puck goes near the net and then he comes alive, pounces and will fire it home. This guy is a an apex predator when it comes to scoring goals- he has elite vision, anticipation, hands and a wicked release with pinpoint accuracy. No moment is ever to daunting to this guy, who scored eight goals in the Under-18 tourney, just about all of them key and important. He may not have the breakaway speed and separation of Rocco Grimaldi, but he's a legitimate sniper with a flair for the dramatic. Those guys are gold. Made the eligibility cutoff for 2011 by one week- one of the youngest players in the class.
The rankings are compiled based on live viewings, streams, and as always, a generous amount of opinions from our NHL sources. Unlike THN or Bob McKenzie's TSN rankings- we do not poll scouts for our rankings, but rather, take the NHL team and Red Line Report approach of doing our live and video scouting to rank order the players in terms of projected impact, and then using the comments and feedback we get as the tie-breakers and deciding votes as to where the players are cast. This is not a mock draft- it's a list of who we see being the best right now...AND those players we feel have the best chance of making an NHL splash in the long run.
No player in our top-50 is a blind association. In other words, if we didn't at least see an online stream of the player, he's not in the rankings. We fully recognize that there could be a clear top-50 candidate who isn't going to make the cut, but the integrity of our list is important enough to live with that. The flip side is that there may be a few guys in our top-50 who aren't going to make that cut come draft day. Again- it's about bringing you what we see and hear and not just lifting someone else's work.
The 21-50 will be in three separate posts between now and May 31. Then, beginning June 1, we will do a comprehensive draft profile per day from 20 on down to 1. If you read the Bruins 2010 Draft Watch blog, then you know what's in store. If you didn't, then here's Tyler Seguin's from last May.
So without further ado, here's 50 in 30- Bruins Draft Watch style!
50. Nick Cousins, C Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-11, 170 7/20/1993
Unappreciated! That's the one word we keep coming back to every time we see the diminutive but highly creative center play. He's versatile with nice wheels, a quick stick and the head to play well at the highest level. Cousins needs to get stronger, but that's the way it is with most players who are undersized. Cousins was knocking on the door to the B2011DW top-50, but after watching him be one of the real straws that stirred the drink for Canada at the World Under-18s, he jumps in there, and probably could be even higher than he is. This is a player who can score for you and plays a responsible defensive game, too. There is always room in the NHL for smart, skilled little men and Cousins is just that.
49. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA) 6-0, 190 09/26/1992
One of the draft's forgotten guys because he was injured and missed a lot of time early on when draft lists forming and buzz building. Not as big as his older brother Drew (might a growth spurt be on the way), a 2nd-round pick of the Florida Panthers in 2009. Good skater and hands, but his hockey sense is what makes the younger Shore a worthwhile pick in the second round at the very least. He's underrated mostly because of the missed time and production. We have to remember that he was a freshman this year, and like his brother, could have a significant jump in numbers from one year to the next. Shore plays a solid all-around game and has some upside, too.
48. Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 6-4, 190 1/13/1993
Burst onto the scene this season after playing for the Jr. A Vaughan Vipers in the OJHL last year and even at the beginning of 2010-11 and was a tough view playing in the Soo. Mark Edwards of HockeyProspect.com knows him well and saw the emergence of this big, swift-skating, hard-shooting defender with some big upside coming. Sproul is raw, yes- but whatever issues he may have with his defense and overall game, the fact remains that this kid scored most of his 14 goals after November. The right-shooting Mississauga native was originally going to go the NCAA route, but switched gears for the OHL, which we hear was the better move for him. Ultimately, he's going to get drafted higher than most think because guys who are as big, can skate and shoot like Sproul don't grow on trees. Boom or bust- probably. But homerun potential will be too tempting for him to remain on the board for long. This kid is going to be an off-the-board selection and we liked enough of what we saw of him in the U-18s to say it will happen in the second round.
Here is more on him from Edwards. He talks Zach Bell and Gabriel Landeskog first, but Sproul stuff at the 5:05 mark
And a HockeyProspect.com interview with him as well.
47. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP (USHL) 5-11, 190 2/15/1993
If you're a regular B2011DW reader, then you know that we weren't bullish on Russo, although we heard from scouts he had solid second-round potential. We just didn't see it in some of the action we saw Russo in earlier this season, but thought it was an entirely different player in Germany for the World Under-18s. The Team USA captain was very good in helping his squad win a third consecutive gold medal- he played with a ton of confidence and brought a two-way presence that had been lacking in our view. He's mobile, smart and can move the puck. Russo succeeded in Germany because he was patient, yet aggressive. He made the right decisions and provided timely offense. He has the skill to be a second-round pick, but the question is- can he play like he did internationally, or will some of the passive, indifferent play creep back in when he goes to Notre Dame next season.
46. Phillip Danault, C Victoriaville (QMJHL) 5-11, 162 2/24/1993
Le Petit Tigre- that was former NHL coach Michel Bergeron's nickname but it works for Danault, whose father is the team's PA announcer. Danault grew up around the team and has been a key player and captain. He's a small guy whose feet never stop moving and he never quits on the play. He's a good defensive center with an active stick who is tenacious on the forecheck and brings a lot of energy, hustle and character to the mix. He's not a high-end skill guy, but makes up for it with his effort. His size is what is keeping him from going higher, but we imagine that NHL teams will love his immeasurables more than what he brings to the table offensively. A classic more than the sum of his parts player, and with Danault we keep going back to the old scouting adage that says if a kid wants to be in the NHL badly enough, he'll probably get there.
45. Daniel Catenacci, LW Sault Ste. Marie (OHL) 5-10, 180 3/09/1993
Former 1st overall selection in the OHL draft is a blazing, dynamic, game-breaker- He's the hot dog with extra mustard and all the relish. Coming into the year, he was looking lost in the shuffle after a tough season in '09-10, but he used the Eight Nations/Ivan Hlinka as a springboard for a 26-goal, 71-point season. Excellent skater and puckhandler who is a real dangler. His father, Maurice, coached Daniel, Ryan Murphy and Barclay Goodrow among others on the high-flying York-Simcoe Express minor midget team, so the younger Catenacci comes from a real hockey background. Catenacci gets into trouble when he goes into solo mode and tries to beat the other team by himself. Takes bad penalties and needs to work on keeping his emotions in check. His defense is also lacking and as an undersized guy needs to get a lot stronger. The Bruins have another player who is pretty similar in style at least- Ryan Spooner. But make no mistake- when on his game in the offensive zone, this kid can bring it. Disappointing showing at U18s for Canada- was outshined by Soo teammate Cousins, but has a higher upside.
44. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HEA) 5-11, 193 11/05/1992
We admit that Nieto is lower on this list than he will likely go in June. Another undersized, yet prolific offensive forward with speed to burn, quick hands and a killer instinct around the net. Nieto had high expectations coming into the season, but struggled out of the gate. The player we saw in November was tentative and ineffective in dealing with the higher-end players in the Hockey East, but by March, he was looking like the NTDP standout. He's an outstanding skater with the vision, hands and instincts to score a lot. But our hesitation comes from the difficulty in transitioning to the NCAA taken with his size, which is going to be an obstacle at the highest level. If Nieto can continue to get stronger and play his high octane, aggressively attacking style, he has a chance to do something, but he is a bit risky in that he's more of a top-six scoring guy than an effective checker if he can't get it done in the pros.
43. David Honzik, G Victoriaville (QMJHL) 6-3, 195 08/09/1993
B2011DW likes this Czech goaltender quite a bit. He's huge, agile and mentally tough. Honzik really came on after struggling with the transition to the 'Q' early on, saving his best for the playoffs. He played a valiant series against super power Saint John and demonstrated adroit puck stopping skills along with mental toughness and a competitive spirit. We heard great things about Honzik from Red Line Czech scout Radim Jelinek, and much of what he said about him checked out. B2011DW has Honzik ahead of Christopher Gibson as a better pro prospect. Gibson had a very good season in Chicoutimi and is a better player on paper, but there are things we've seen and heard about him that lead to believe that in time, Honzik has the higher upside.
42. Brett Ritchie, RW Sarnia (OHL)6-3, 205 07/01/1993
It was a tough year for Ritchie who was starting to round into form after a sluggish start, only to be felled by a bout with mono that effectively took him out of it for the balance of the season in January. Ritchie is a big kid with a nice stride who does all the things you want from your power winger along the walls. He takes the puck to the net, shields it effectively when in possession and cycling. He's not a real baggage smasher who goes out of his way to wreck guys, but will give a hit and take one. His mitts are OK, and yet he still managed 21 goals in 49 games this season so the potential is there for him so long as he continues to play in the greasy areas of the ice. NHL teams love those power forwards
41. Reid Boucher, LW 5-9, 186 09/08/1993
Boy, do we love this kid. The Michigan State recruit is probably too low on the B2011DW list, but the size and lack of high-end speed will bring him down in the draft, lower than he should go in our view. Boucher could legally change his last name to "Money" and he'd be well within his rights to do so. He's one of these guys who will cruise along and not really be noticed until the puck goes near the net and then he comes alive, pounces and will fire it home. This guy is a an apex predator when it comes to scoring goals- he has elite vision, anticipation, hands and a wicked release with pinpoint accuracy. No moment is ever to daunting to this guy, who scored eight goals in the Under-18 tourney, just about all of them key and important. He may not have the breakaway speed and separation of Rocco Grimaldi, but he's a legitimate sniper with a flair for the dramatic. Those guys are gold. Made the eligibility cutoff for 2011 by one week- one of the youngest players in the class.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Central North American Skaters rankings: The rank and file
We're back with our ongoing analysis of Central Scouting's release of their North American skaters list. We won't hit it from top-to-bottom, but the focus of this post will be to identify other name players who have either slipped, and some who have made significant jumps on the list.
At the top of the second round,Seth Ambroz is one of the bigger fallers in the 2011 class, even though he still stands to be taken earlier than his performance this season and that fact that it appears that he's plateau'd should warrant. We don't want to hammer the Minnesota power forward, but when we hear the same things from various sources about a lack of progress, his poor skating and an overall mediocre level of commitment and effort. If the shoe fits, wear it, Seth. We don't want to hear about summers off hanging out with friends when guys like Jason Zucker and Shane Prince are leaving home at young ages to pursue their hockey dreams and busting their humps to address the holes in their game because their lack of God-given size and natural strength handicaps them in this sport. So, Ambroz is a teenager and should be allowed to be a kid. Yep- we get that. We also get that while he's been off taking it easy and not improving his skating skills over the past several seasons, other kids have been working their bags off to pass him up. And this year, you've seen exactly that.
Make no mistake- Ambroz will be a top-60 pick. He could even be a top-40. But if he goes there, it will be because an NHL team is convinced they can flip the lightswitch on, and it will likely be a club that has a few extra picks they can afford to gamble with. Ambroz has all the tools- it's the toolbox and inner fire we're worried about. But, he has ample time to get it together and become the kind of player scouts were drooling over in the previous three years when he emerged as a 15-year-old.
One big riser on Central's rankings, and likely most team draft lists, is rugged WHL defenseman Joel Edmundson. We have nary a word on the WHL rookie for Moose Jaw, but he jumped 36 spots from 69 at mid-term to 33. For some dope on him, we went to the April issue of Red Line Report, which featured him the monthly "risers" section and in the April annual "underrated" section of their underrated/overrated review. At 6-5, he's got prototypical size and pretty mobile for a player of his size. Because he's a bit of a late-bloomer, only in his first major junior season, he's had a bit of a steep learning curve and has some issues with mistakes made from a lack of experience (gap control). However, he plays like his size and if you have faith that his development curve will continue upward, he should go off the board pretty early.
Stefan Noesen is on the list at 35, and the Plymouth Whalers power forward has helped himself immensely with his productive season and the strong playoff round he had against Kitchener. He works hard and gets the most out of his skills, banging bodies, clearing space for his linemates and providing opportunistic offense with a quick stick and heavy shot.
"Noesen is a riser," said one NHL scout we talked to when the Central List came out. "I wouldn't at all be surprised to see NHL teams that have him in their first round. He came a long way this year."
Cape Breton forward Logan Shaw is a legitimate sleeper and underrated right winger who played on a poor team, but showed off some progress. He's still quite lanky at 6-3 and only about 180 pounds, but will put on considerable weight and strength. He's an above average skater, but has good hands and anticipation, putting together a solid offensive season for the moribund Screaming Eagles with 26 goals and 46 points. He's a classic project pick, but one who could pay off for a team gutsy enough to pick him sooner rather than later because scouts weren't exactly flocking to Cape Breton this season.
Saint John's Scott Oke is on the list at 44, ahead of Oshawa forward Lucas Lessio, who has legitimate skills but has had issues with intensity and compete levels this year. One NHL scout finds this a bit ridiculous (his words not ours). He openly wondered if Central's Quebec scout only watched the Sea Dogs this year based on the fact that a kid with five goals and 10 points in 54 games with just 15 penalty minutes came away with a second-round grade.
"He's big and can skate," the scout said of Oke. "But he played on the third- and fourth lines on the best team in Canada. I don't know that you make such a leap of faith for a kid who scored a total of five goals and 10 points, three of which came in one game. I would probably have Oke 100 spots lower."
The scout viewed Ryan Tesink, another Sea Dog who checked in at 47, but had eight goals and 35 points much the same way. In fairness, both players had a tough time cracking an elite lineup, but while Tesink showed flashes of some offensive talent and creativity, he's only about 160 pounds and not all that tall, so he has major physical and conditioning work to do.
Another huge riser on the blue line in the second round is Sault Ste. Marie's Ryan Sproul, who was also a RLR riser in April. He moved up 70 spots from 124 to 54 and has a lot of NHL scouts buzzing. Unfortunately, his Greyhounds didn't make the playoffs, and he was a curious omission from Team Canada's Under-18 squad, so whichever NHL team got to see him the most in one of the OHL's tougher draws is the team that will hold an advantage on where to value him going into the draft. The question then becomes- where do the NHL teams out there see him? He scored his first goal at the end of November and finished with 14, which tells you a lot about how meteoric a rise he's had.
Green Bay (USHL) defenseman Andy Welinski is another big mover up the list, moving from 103 to 48. At 6-1, 192, he's got the size and will add a few pounds as he gets stronger/physically matures. He plays with his head up and sees the ice well, using his vision and strong skating ability to make plays at both ends of the ice. He's more of a defender at this stage of his development, using his stick to take away lanes and exhibiting strong gap control, but there is a bit of untapped offensive potential as well, shown in the strong second half he had for the Gamblers. One scout we talked to doesn't see what the fuss is about with Welinski given his numbers, however.
The third round has some interesting players who are both risers and fallers. The latter category has Seattle center Colin Jacobs, who has good size, talent and upside, but who wasn't able to put it together this season for the non-playoff Thunderbirds. One NHL scout told us earlier this season that Jacobs is the classic guy who "looks like a player, but may not ever be one" because of a lack of hockey sense.
Edmonton's Travis Ewanyk, on the other hand, is trending upward as a big kid and decent skater who plays a power game. He's in Germany for the U18 tournament and could raise his stock even more after a 16 goal, 27-point season.
Also keep an eye out on three skilled, but smallish OHL forwards in this round ranked 71-73: Nick Cousins (buried in the Soo but underrated), Alan Quine (who did not meet expectations but has legitimate scoring upside) and Tobias Rieder (small, but skilled and industrious).
Sudbury defender Justin Sefton is 89th on the list after not being ranked (as is U.S. forward Austin Wuthrich), but an NHL scout chuckled when Sefton's name came up. "Real tough kid but he can't skate," he said. He wouldn't come out and say it, but we think that Sefton's powerful KO of David Broll back in early March has more to do with it than anything else. Sefton's lack of mobility isn't enough to off-set any size/toughness advantage he brings to the mix to have him this high in the scout's view.
Scott Harrington's spot in the fourth round is reflective of his fall from first-round candidate this season to later-round reclamation project for the team that invests a pick on him.
Kale Kessy, the hard-nosed Medicine Hat winger came in at 101, and an NHL scout thought that was too low. "Someone will take him higher because they see him as a poor man's Milan Lucic right now," he said. "Teams are looking for that legitimately tough guy who can score some goals and change the pace of a game and Kessy has that kind of potential."
On the flip side, we interviewed a WHL player recently and asked him about Kessy. He had no idea who we were talking about, which seemed strange, but there it is. Apparently, Kessy didn't have the same impact on this particular Dub skater as he's made on scouts who have watched the Hat play this season.
We will wrap up the North American season with a look at the goalies and some sleepers to keep an eye on.
At the top of the second round,Seth Ambroz is one of the bigger fallers in the 2011 class, even though he still stands to be taken earlier than his performance this season and that fact that it appears that he's plateau'd should warrant. We don't want to hammer the Minnesota power forward, but when we hear the same things from various sources about a lack of progress, his poor skating and an overall mediocre level of commitment and effort. If the shoe fits, wear it, Seth. We don't want to hear about summers off hanging out with friends when guys like Jason Zucker and Shane Prince are leaving home at young ages to pursue their hockey dreams and busting their humps to address the holes in their game because their lack of God-given size and natural strength handicaps them in this sport. So, Ambroz is a teenager and should be allowed to be a kid. Yep- we get that. We also get that while he's been off taking it easy and not improving his skating skills over the past several seasons, other kids have been working their bags off to pass him up. And this year, you've seen exactly that.
Make no mistake- Ambroz will be a top-60 pick. He could even be a top-40. But if he goes there, it will be because an NHL team is convinced they can flip the lightswitch on, and it will likely be a club that has a few extra picks they can afford to gamble with. Ambroz has all the tools- it's the toolbox and inner fire we're worried about. But, he has ample time to get it together and become the kind of player scouts were drooling over in the previous three years when he emerged as a 15-year-old.
One big riser on Central's rankings, and likely most team draft lists, is rugged WHL defenseman Joel Edmundson. We have nary a word on the WHL rookie for Moose Jaw, but he jumped 36 spots from 69 at mid-term to 33. For some dope on him, we went to the April issue of Red Line Report, which featured him the monthly "risers" section and in the April annual "underrated" section of their underrated/overrated review. At 6-5, he's got prototypical size and pretty mobile for a player of his size. Because he's a bit of a late-bloomer, only in his first major junior season, he's had a bit of a steep learning curve and has some issues with mistakes made from a lack of experience (gap control). However, he plays like his size and if you have faith that his development curve will continue upward, he should go off the board pretty early.
Stefan Noesen is on the list at 35, and the Plymouth Whalers power forward has helped himself immensely with his productive season and the strong playoff round he had against Kitchener. He works hard and gets the most out of his skills, banging bodies, clearing space for his linemates and providing opportunistic offense with a quick stick and heavy shot.
"Noesen is a riser," said one NHL scout we talked to when the Central List came out. "I wouldn't at all be surprised to see NHL teams that have him in their first round. He came a long way this year."
Cape Breton forward Logan Shaw is a legitimate sleeper and underrated right winger who played on a poor team, but showed off some progress. He's still quite lanky at 6-3 and only about 180 pounds, but will put on considerable weight and strength. He's an above average skater, but has good hands and anticipation, putting together a solid offensive season for the moribund Screaming Eagles with 26 goals and 46 points. He's a classic project pick, but one who could pay off for a team gutsy enough to pick him sooner rather than later because scouts weren't exactly flocking to Cape Breton this season.
Saint John's Scott Oke is on the list at 44, ahead of Oshawa forward Lucas Lessio, who has legitimate skills but has had issues with intensity and compete levels this year. One NHL scout finds this a bit ridiculous (his words not ours). He openly wondered if Central's Quebec scout only watched the Sea Dogs this year based on the fact that a kid with five goals and 10 points in 54 games with just 15 penalty minutes came away with a second-round grade.
"He's big and can skate," the scout said of Oke. "But he played on the third- and fourth lines on the best team in Canada. I don't know that you make such a leap of faith for a kid who scored a total of five goals and 10 points, three of which came in one game. I would probably have Oke 100 spots lower."
The scout viewed Ryan Tesink, another Sea Dog who checked in at 47, but had eight goals and 35 points much the same way. In fairness, both players had a tough time cracking an elite lineup, but while Tesink showed flashes of some offensive talent and creativity, he's only about 160 pounds and not all that tall, so he has major physical and conditioning work to do.
Another huge riser on the blue line in the second round is Sault Ste. Marie's Ryan Sproul, who was also a RLR riser in April. He moved up 70 spots from 124 to 54 and has a lot of NHL scouts buzzing. Unfortunately, his Greyhounds didn't make the playoffs, and he was a curious omission from Team Canada's Under-18 squad, so whichever NHL team got to see him the most in one of the OHL's tougher draws is the team that will hold an advantage on where to value him going into the draft. The question then becomes- where do the NHL teams out there see him? He scored his first goal at the end of November and finished with 14, which tells you a lot about how meteoric a rise he's had.
Green Bay (USHL) defenseman Andy Welinski is another big mover up the list, moving from 103 to 48. At 6-1, 192, he's got the size and will add a few pounds as he gets stronger/physically matures. He plays with his head up and sees the ice well, using his vision and strong skating ability to make plays at both ends of the ice. He's more of a defender at this stage of his development, using his stick to take away lanes and exhibiting strong gap control, but there is a bit of untapped offensive potential as well, shown in the strong second half he had for the Gamblers. One scout we talked to doesn't see what the fuss is about with Welinski given his numbers, however.
The third round has some interesting players who are both risers and fallers. The latter category has Seattle center Colin Jacobs, who has good size, talent and upside, but who wasn't able to put it together this season for the non-playoff Thunderbirds. One NHL scout told us earlier this season that Jacobs is the classic guy who "looks like a player, but may not ever be one" because of a lack of hockey sense.
Edmonton's Travis Ewanyk, on the other hand, is trending upward as a big kid and decent skater who plays a power game. He's in Germany for the U18 tournament and could raise his stock even more after a 16 goal, 27-point season.
Also keep an eye out on three skilled, but smallish OHL forwards in this round ranked 71-73: Nick Cousins (buried in the Soo but underrated), Alan Quine (who did not meet expectations but has legitimate scoring upside) and Tobias Rieder (small, but skilled and industrious).
Sudbury defender Justin Sefton is 89th on the list after not being ranked (as is U.S. forward Austin Wuthrich), but an NHL scout chuckled when Sefton's name came up. "Real tough kid but he can't skate," he said. He wouldn't come out and say it, but we think that Sefton's powerful KO of David Broll back in early March has more to do with it than anything else. Sefton's lack of mobility isn't enough to off-set any size/toughness advantage he brings to the mix to have him this high in the scout's view.
Scott Harrington's spot in the fourth round is reflective of his fall from first-round candidate this season to later-round reclamation project for the team that invests a pick on him.
Kale Kessy, the hard-nosed Medicine Hat winger came in at 101, and an NHL scout thought that was too low. "Someone will take him higher because they see him as a poor man's Milan Lucic right now," he said. "Teams are looking for that legitimately tough guy who can score some goals and change the pace of a game and Kessy has that kind of potential."
On the flip side, we interviewed a WHL player recently and asked him about Kessy. He had no idea who we were talking about, which seemed strange, but there it is. Apparently, Kessy didn't have the same impact on this particular Dub skater as he's made on scouts who have watched the Hat play this season.
We will wrap up the North American season with a look at the goalies and some sleepers to keep an eye on.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Risers and fallers in 2011 draft
Time to look at some risers and fallers for the 2011 draft.
Up next will be a post with some sleeper picks for the class, and with that, should bring everyone up to speed on many of the top options for June. We will come back in May with a playoff review when the league championships are all in the books.
Risers
Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)- Hit a huge growth spurt and now stands at about 6-4 after being drafted by the Greyhounds at a little over 6-feet. Played in the OJHL before jumping to the OHL and showed a lot of promise as a mobile, agile two-way defenseman who came out of left field this season laboring for a non-playoff squad. He didn't suffer any ill-effects of the surge in height, and is a powerful skater with a long, fluid stride that scouts really like. When he adds strength and mass to his skinny frame, he'll be even more of a defensive horse than he is already. As one would imagine, he's got a big gun from the point, and just think how much more lethal it will be when he develops more oomph behind it. Very raw, but with one of the most intriguing projectable of any player in the OHL, this guy is going to be the subject of a lot of internet draft chatter between now and June 24-25.
Here's a nice feature on Sproul from Brock Otten's OHL Prospects blog
Seth Griffith, C/RW London (OHL)- Smallish but skilled forward came on strong for the Knights after a large chunk of veterans were traded away. Showed some chemistry with B's prospect Jared Knight and fellow 2011 draft prospect Vladislav Namestnikov. Quick and agile; handles the puck well and has the look of a dangerous scorer in the OHL over the next couple of years. His lacrosse background serves him well in hockey. A player to watch; was a sleeper but finished season with nearly point-per-game for London (22-40-62 in 68 games as a rookie), so he's on a lot of NHL radars now.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (SWE-2)- Youngster has gained a lot of confidence playing in Sweden's Allsvenskan division against men: 45 games, 2-7-9. He's a good skater who plays a solid two-way game and has the size (6-2, 196) to be an effective NHL player eventually. Has a cannon of a shot, but could stand to improve quickness of his release and accuracy. Overall, he's an interesting developmental project as a player who needs to be a little more physical and assertive in his own end, but appears to have the tools to be an NHL prospect to watch.
Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- A 1991 birthdate and late-bloomer who was passed over in 2009 and 2010, NHL teams won't make that mistake again in 2011. Huge at 6-5, 185 pounds and cat-quick between the pipes. Performed brilliantly for Almtuna in the Allsvenskan this season, posting a 2.04 GAA and .936 save percentage in 31 games. He was then loaned to IFK Kumla in the Division 1 league and posted a 2.01 GAA and .938 mark. With his superb athleticism, upside and performance, his developmental curve is straight up, not to mention as an older, more mature player, he's ready to come to the AHL next season and start right away.
Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)- Big Russian defenseman (6-4, 195) came into the OHL this year with a lot of hype after an outstanding Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Russia and only managed to score two goals and 12 points in 51 games, with both tallies coming at the very end of the season. Interestingly enough, he's already posted five points in just three playoff games and his stock is on the rebound. NHL teams liked his size and mobility/agility as an effective shutdown 'D', but he had shown very little offensive element to his performance to justify a high pick. Now, with Pedan starting to bring the offense at crunch time, he's elevating his profile at just the right time.
Zach Franko, LW Kelowna (WHL)- A smaller guy at 5-11, 160, but shifty, fast and a very good puckhandler. Franko, like teammate Shane McColgan, got off to a slow start offensively, but really came on over the second half for the Rockets and will no doubt be on a lot of teams' boards come June. He finished the year with 22 goals and 53 points in 72 games, but has fine hockey sense and vision to go with his wheels and quick stick. He's got to get much stronger, but he could explode offensively in the WHL over the next 1-2 years.
Mitch Elliot, LW Seattle (WHL)- Behemoth winger at 6-5, 215 pounds has legitimate toughness but a modicum of skill as well. He hasn't been very productive with the non-playoff Thunderbirds over the past couple of season, scoring just 6 goals and 17 points in 128 games to go with 157 penalty minutes. Elliot's upside is limited, but he skates pretty well for such a big guy and NHL teams do love their tough wingers.
Fallers
Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL)- This skilled pivot with a high hockey IQ came into the year as a first-round projection, but got off to a slow start with Kingston and never recovered. He was on the gold medal team at the Ivan Hlinka tourney, and was eventually traded to Peterborough for Ryan Spooner. He finished the season with 26 goals and 53 points in 69 games split between the Frontenacs and Petes. He has tremendous vision and high-end passing skills with a quick release and accurate shot. Unfortunately, defense is not his strong suit, and his average size (6-0, 180) doesn't make for a very physical player. Quine could be one of those one-dimensional guys who is doomed to be a minor leaguer, but if he ever figures out how to round out his game, he certainly has the talent to be a top-six NHL forward.
Garrett Meurs, C Plymouth (OHL)- Another disappointment like Quine in that Meurs was a playmaking pivot from whom bigger things were expected after a 16-goal, 34-point rookie campaign with the Whalers. The 5-11, 172-pounder only managed 10 goals and 40 points in 2011, but played better hockey near the end of the season after looking listless and ineffective for much of the time. Meurs is a talented forward who isn't the prettiest-looking skater, but manages to get where he needs to go. Needs to improve first step in the eyes of several scouts, who feel his skating will hold him back at the next level. Shows the intangibles you want like vision, offensive instincts and has a feisty side despite not being the biggest guy out there. Another member of Team Canada's Ivan Hlinka champion last August, Meurs must get a lot stronger. His stock is on the wane, but if he gets back on his developmental track, he's got potential as a later value pick in this class.
Jesse Forsberg, D Prince George (WHL)- Smallish defender at 6-0, 195 pounds was one of the higher-rated players in the WHL coming into it, but pretty much fell off the map with a subpar offensive season and a weird, hunched-over skating style that is a turnoff for scouts. Works hard and plays a gritty, hard-nosed game despite a lack of height and power, but is pretty limited in terms of his puck-moving ability and upside at the next level. Could force his way into the NHL much like Andrew Ference did, but Ference at least put up some pretty good numbers in Portland back in the day. Forsberg's 2 goals and 16 points at the junior level will give pause to any team thinking of drafting him in the top-100, but he has the kind of edge and work ethic to make himself a player one day. Worth the risk after the third round.
Austen Brassard, RW Belleville (OHL)- A frustrating tease, in the words of one NHL scout. This 6-2, 190-pound winger put up 17 points in just 26 games last season after being traded from Windsor to the Bulls, so the conventional thinking was that Brassard would make the obvious jump in production this year. Didn't happen. With 19 goals and 34 points in 67 games, the talent is not an issue, as he's a pretty good skater and has the quick hands and nose for the net, but brings a maddening inconsistency and penchant for disappearing for large stretches to the mix. Brassard is capable of doing so much more, but is largely undelivered potential at this point. He's worth a gamble with a later-round pick like the sixth the B's spent on Tyler Randell two years ago, but the light may never come on for Brassard.
Scott Harrington, D London (OHL)- First-round talent had high hopes this year and looked like a good bet to deliver after a solid Ivan Hlinka performance in August. Unfortunately, Harrington struggled with the defensive aspect of his game this season, which was a strength last season, and according to scouts, showed off some indecisive play early on and never really found his groove. Although mobile with crisp change-of-direction ability, Harrington was never thought of as an offensive player, but his gap control, positioning, smarts and work ethic all drew raves last year. This season, he regressed and seemed to let the pressure of his draft year and London's struggles get to him. He could be a solid pro if he can get back to his previous level, but that will require a club who saw enough of him last year to be confident he can get his mojo back.
Andrei Makarov, G Lewiston (QMJHL)- Highly athletic Russian goalie carried high expectations all the way to Maine, but played so poorly early in the season that even his late resurgence may not be enough to see him picked. His poor technique and lack of fundamentals were exposed early on, but to his credit, he battled and tried to work through it. Showed improvement as the season wore on, and he could be one of these guys who goes the distance because he has such natural size, flexibility and is a bit of an acrobat in net. He's going to require a great deal of time and patience, but the payoff could be big.
Up next will be a post with some sleeper picks for the class, and with that, should bring everyone up to speed on many of the top options for June. We will come back in May with a playoff review when the league championships are all in the books.
Risers
Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)- Hit a huge growth spurt and now stands at about 6-4 after being drafted by the Greyhounds at a little over 6-feet. Played in the OJHL before jumping to the OHL and showed a lot of promise as a mobile, agile two-way defenseman who came out of left field this season laboring for a non-playoff squad. He didn't suffer any ill-effects of the surge in height, and is a powerful skater with a long, fluid stride that scouts really like. When he adds strength and mass to his skinny frame, he'll be even more of a defensive horse than he is already. As one would imagine, he's got a big gun from the point, and just think how much more lethal it will be when he develops more oomph behind it. Very raw, but with one of the most intriguing projectable of any player in the OHL, this guy is going to be the subject of a lot of internet draft chatter between now and June 24-25.
Here's a nice feature on Sproul from Brock Otten's OHL Prospects blog
Seth Griffith, C/RW London (OHL)- Smallish but skilled forward came on strong for the Knights after a large chunk of veterans were traded away. Showed some chemistry with B's prospect Jared Knight and fellow 2011 draft prospect Vladislav Namestnikov. Quick and agile; handles the puck well and has the look of a dangerous scorer in the OHL over the next couple of years. His lacrosse background serves him well in hockey. A player to watch; was a sleeper but finished season with nearly point-per-game for London (22-40-62 in 68 games as a rookie), so he's on a lot of NHL radars now.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (SWE-2)- Youngster has gained a lot of confidence playing in Sweden's Allsvenskan division against men: 45 games, 2-7-9. He's a good skater who plays a solid two-way game and has the size (6-2, 196) to be an effective NHL player eventually. Has a cannon of a shot, but could stand to improve quickness of his release and accuracy. Overall, he's an interesting developmental project as a player who needs to be a little more physical and assertive in his own end, but appears to have the tools to be an NHL prospect to watch.
Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- A 1991 birthdate and late-bloomer who was passed over in 2009 and 2010, NHL teams won't make that mistake again in 2011. Huge at 6-5, 185 pounds and cat-quick between the pipes. Performed brilliantly for Almtuna in the Allsvenskan this season, posting a 2.04 GAA and .936 save percentage in 31 games. He was then loaned to IFK Kumla in the Division 1 league and posted a 2.01 GAA and .938 mark. With his superb athleticism, upside and performance, his developmental curve is straight up, not to mention as an older, more mature player, he's ready to come to the AHL next season and start right away.
Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)- Big Russian defenseman (6-4, 195) came into the OHL this year with a lot of hype after an outstanding Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Russia and only managed to score two goals and 12 points in 51 games, with both tallies coming at the very end of the season. Interestingly enough, he's already posted five points in just three playoff games and his stock is on the rebound. NHL teams liked his size and mobility/agility as an effective shutdown 'D', but he had shown very little offensive element to his performance to justify a high pick. Now, with Pedan starting to bring the offense at crunch time, he's elevating his profile at just the right time.
Zach Franko, LW Kelowna (WHL)- A smaller guy at 5-11, 160, but shifty, fast and a very good puckhandler. Franko, like teammate Shane McColgan, got off to a slow start offensively, but really came on over the second half for the Rockets and will no doubt be on a lot of teams' boards come June. He finished the year with 22 goals and 53 points in 72 games, but has fine hockey sense and vision to go with his wheels and quick stick. He's got to get much stronger, but he could explode offensively in the WHL over the next 1-2 years.
Mitch Elliot, LW Seattle (WHL)- Behemoth winger at 6-5, 215 pounds has legitimate toughness but a modicum of skill as well. He hasn't been very productive with the non-playoff Thunderbirds over the past couple of season, scoring just 6 goals and 17 points in 128 games to go with 157 penalty minutes. Elliot's upside is limited, but he skates pretty well for such a big guy and NHL teams do love their tough wingers.
Fallers
Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL)- This skilled pivot with a high hockey IQ came into the year as a first-round projection, but got off to a slow start with Kingston and never recovered. He was on the gold medal team at the Ivan Hlinka tourney, and was eventually traded to Peterborough for Ryan Spooner. He finished the season with 26 goals and 53 points in 69 games split between the Frontenacs and Petes. He has tremendous vision and high-end passing skills with a quick release and accurate shot. Unfortunately, defense is not his strong suit, and his average size (6-0, 180) doesn't make for a very physical player. Quine could be one of those one-dimensional guys who is doomed to be a minor leaguer, but if he ever figures out how to round out his game, he certainly has the talent to be a top-six NHL forward.
Garrett Meurs, C Plymouth (OHL)- Another disappointment like Quine in that Meurs was a playmaking pivot from whom bigger things were expected after a 16-goal, 34-point rookie campaign with the Whalers. The 5-11, 172-pounder only managed 10 goals and 40 points in 2011, but played better hockey near the end of the season after looking listless and ineffective for much of the time. Meurs is a talented forward who isn't the prettiest-looking skater, but manages to get where he needs to go. Needs to improve first step in the eyes of several scouts, who feel his skating will hold him back at the next level. Shows the intangibles you want like vision, offensive instincts and has a feisty side despite not being the biggest guy out there. Another member of Team Canada's Ivan Hlinka champion last August, Meurs must get a lot stronger. His stock is on the wane, but if he gets back on his developmental track, he's got potential as a later value pick in this class.
Jesse Forsberg, D Prince George (WHL)- Smallish defender at 6-0, 195 pounds was one of the higher-rated players in the WHL coming into it, but pretty much fell off the map with a subpar offensive season and a weird, hunched-over skating style that is a turnoff for scouts. Works hard and plays a gritty, hard-nosed game despite a lack of height and power, but is pretty limited in terms of his puck-moving ability and upside at the next level. Could force his way into the NHL much like Andrew Ference did, but Ference at least put up some pretty good numbers in Portland back in the day. Forsberg's 2 goals and 16 points at the junior level will give pause to any team thinking of drafting him in the top-100, but he has the kind of edge and work ethic to make himself a player one day. Worth the risk after the third round.
Austen Brassard, RW Belleville (OHL)- A frustrating tease, in the words of one NHL scout. This 6-2, 190-pound winger put up 17 points in just 26 games last season after being traded from Windsor to the Bulls, so the conventional thinking was that Brassard would make the obvious jump in production this year. Didn't happen. With 19 goals and 34 points in 67 games, the talent is not an issue, as he's a pretty good skater and has the quick hands and nose for the net, but brings a maddening inconsistency and penchant for disappearing for large stretches to the mix. Brassard is capable of doing so much more, but is largely undelivered potential at this point. He's worth a gamble with a later-round pick like the sixth the B's spent on Tyler Randell two years ago, but the light may never come on for Brassard.
Scott Harrington, D London (OHL)- First-round talent had high hopes this year and looked like a good bet to deliver after a solid Ivan Hlinka performance in August. Unfortunately, Harrington struggled with the defensive aspect of his game this season, which was a strength last season, and according to scouts, showed off some indecisive play early on and never really found his groove. Although mobile with crisp change-of-direction ability, Harrington was never thought of as an offensive player, but his gap control, positioning, smarts and work ethic all drew raves last year. This season, he regressed and seemed to let the pressure of his draft year and London's struggles get to him. He could be a solid pro if he can get back to his previous level, but that will require a club who saw enough of him last year to be confident he can get his mojo back.
Andrei Makarov, G Lewiston (QMJHL)- Highly athletic Russian goalie carried high expectations all the way to Maine, but played so poorly early in the season that even his late resurgence may not be enough to see him picked. His poor technique and lack of fundamentals were exposed early on, but to his credit, he battled and tried to work through it. Showed improvement as the season wore on, and he could be one of these guys who goes the distance because he has such natural size, flexibility and is a bit of an acrobat in net. He's going to require a great deal of time and patience, but the payoff could be big.
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