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Friday, April 8, 2011

2011 final weekend: Bruins will pick 9th, 10th or 11th

We're back on the case after taking a day to honor E.J. McGuire's passing.

Bruins are looking at picking anywhere from 9-11 in the 2011 draft.

Here are the scenarios:

Toronto has one game remaining; they play Montreal tomorrow. They have 85 points, which ties them with the St. Louis Blues, who also have one game remaining. The Blues own the tie-breakers if they finish with the same amount of points, so it will come down to their remaining home contest against Nashville. If the Leafs win and Blues stumble, then the pick will be 11.

Minnesota has lost three in a row and has two games left- tonight in Edmonton and Sunday at home against Dallas. They have 82 points, so if they win both and Toronto loses in regulation, the Wild would push the Leafs down to the 9th selection. Not a great chance of that happening. If the Leafs get one point vs. Montreal, they own the tie-breakers, so the pick will remain at 10.

Now, as far as the Wild go, their swoon benefits the Bruins even if they don't catch Toronto, because the B's own their second-round selection by virtue of the Chuck Kobasew trade in October, 2009. The Wild are currently 9th, meaning that pick will sit 39th. Columbus is just one point behind Minnesota with two games left, so if the Wild bottom out in their final two and the BJ's can pass them, the Bruins will own the 38th overall selection in 2011.
UPDATE: Wild beat Edmonton, so they're one point behind the Leafs. Pointed out to me that if they beat Dallas, and Leafs lose or even get a point, believe that puts Wild ahead of TOR in the standings due to victories. We shall see. Columbus lost to Nashville, so they can't catch Minny. B's fans should pull for Wild to push 1st rounder to 9th by winning. Second pick for Boston would then be 40th assuming of course, that St. Louis does their part against NAS. One way or another, we'll find out by Sunday night where everything shakes out.

That Minnesota second-rounder is a nice pick to hold in this deep draft, or the Bruins can use it as a bargaining chip in a deal to upgrade the NHL roster. Second-round picks are becoming increasingly valuable in the NHL draft, and a top-10 slot is even more desireable.

It's not a lottery selection, but the Bruins still stand to get a good player at 9, 10 or even 11. We've talked to enough scouts who feel that this draft goes 11 or 12 deep in terms of guys with the skill and upside to potentially be one of the top players in class. The Bruins have done their homework, so assuming they hold onto the pick and don't deal it, they'll bring another very nice prospect into the fold on June 24.

Now, the only thing that remains is to see where that selection will be on Sunday night. We'll be back to break it down then.


  1. Kirk, awesome site man!

    So we've been thinking the b's pick would fall 5-8 for sometime now, but we are looking at 9 or 10, so who do we figure are the picks there? It seems unlikely that the Strome/Hubredeau/Hamilton/Murphy grouping will fall to us, so now what? Who are you hoping for there, who are the best options? You said most scouts see this draft as 12 deep, who rounds out that bottom 4 of the 12?

    Thanks, keep up the great work!

  2. Thanks for the kind words, Danny.

    9th or 10th you are correct- looking at Mika Zibanejad, Brandon Saad, Duncan Siemens, Tyler Biggs, Matt Puempel, Jamie Oleksiak to name a few.

    Don't believe what you hear- this is not a "rather weak draft" in the words of a sour grapes Toronto Sun columnist who ought to know better.

    Bruins will get a player...assuming they hold onto the pick.

  3. Who would you like to see from that group? Would another power forward to pair on Seguins future line be best? Or would Oleksiak playing 25 mins a night and Z 25 mins a night be a deadly duo worth trying for?

  4. Also, are there any very skilled forwards close to Hubredeau or Strome available in that 3rd tier of guys?

  5. Hard to say who to go with in April. Not as big on Oleksiak (no pun intended) as others are. Would prefer to see them go with a different option with higher-end skill level. I really question Oleksiak's sense and ultimate upside.

    There are a lot of good players in the 3rd tier- Puempel is probably the closest one to those two in terms of skill, but you know- without a crystal ball, it's pretty tough to say right now.

    We'll know more in June when U18s, CHL playoffs, Memorial Cup and draft combine are done and we start hearing the rumor mill get going a bit. Happens every year and really starts to pick up steam after the U18s are in the books and the Memorial Cup is in full swing- then hits crescendo at combine and in first few weeks of June. Until then, enjoy the ride.

    Do the research and come up with your own picks based on who you think might be the best option at 9. I'll get there eventually, but can't go all-in until I let a few more hands play out.