Grading the 2011 Draft Part 1

Now that the 2011 NHL Draft is in the books, it's time to assess each team's draft class based on what we know now.

The analysis is subjective and limited at the same time. There will be some picks who look great right now who will go on to have a minimal or no impact, just as there are those who don't look like a whole lot of anything but will pick up their developmental curve and become NHL players, perhaps even stars.

However, given what we have to go on, there's always time to reflect and at least make an initial assessment. In three-to-five years, we can go back and see how close we were. Until then, the jury will be out.

This is the first of three posts that will look at each team and analyze their draft day efforts.


Anaheim Ducks
Grade: B+
The Ducks traded down from 22 with Toronto (Tyler Biggs) and picked up Swedish forward Rickard Rakell with the final pick in the first round. B2011DW has liked Rakell since seeing him in the WJC. He doesn't have ideal size or elite skill, but he's a slick forward who is underrated on the offensive side of things. He plays a gritty, agitating game. With Toronto's second-rounder, they got excellent value with American goalie John Gibson, who has cornerstone-type potential. Unlike Jack Campbell, he won't have a lot of pressure on him as the 39th overall pick compared to being 10th. We also like the pick of undersized but plucky William Karlsson. The draft went off the rails a bit with the selection of Joe Cramarossa early in the third round. "Cram-berry" is a solid player, but his upside is limited. They could have done better. Andy Welinski generated some buzz in the USHL this season and is fine value in the third. Don't see a lot of upside in smallish Swedish forward (that's two with Karlsson) Max Friberg, but as a fifth-round selection, probably worth the risk. Sixth rounder Josh Manson did not get high marks from scouts we talked to beyond his size.

Boston Bruins
Grade: A
Stanley Cup champs and they land two high-end talents in Dougie Hamilton and Alexander Khokhlachev. That's not supposed to be how it works. Anthony Camara was a surprise and reach pick, but the same things were said about Milan Lucic in 2006, so it will be interesting to see if there is something more to this player skill-wise. His toughness even despite being average-sized is unquestionable. Ferlin, O'Gara and Volden are all developmental depth picks, but we keep going back to the team's two first picks in the top-40. From the looks of it, they could not have done any better, especially given that Marc Savard looks to be at the end of the line, with what could very well be a retirement announcement coming this summer.

Buffalo Sabres
Grade: A-
First pick Joel Armia was solid value at 16 where the Sabres got him and he has some real potential as a big scoring forward. Buffalo also got nice value with third-rounder Daniel Catenacci, who reminds us a lot of a Brad Marchand-type player. Terrific wheels, good hands and a real buzzsaw/agitating presence. We're not bullish on Colin Jacobs, who attended the draft with his arm in a sling after recent shoulder surgery and scouts didn't have great things to say about his long-term potential. The Sabres landed a homegrown product in the 5th round with West Seneca, N.Y. native and Barrie defenseman Alex Lepkowski, a shutdown guy with size who doesn't have any offensive upside but could be an effective bottom pair player one day. Big goalie Nathan Lieuwen, who had a terrific WHL season and playoffs in leading the Kootenay Ice to the Chynoweth Cup as WHL champs is a solid value pick and good story after being passed over twice previously because of concussion issues. Wisconsin high schooler Brad Navin has size, skill and is very raw but is an interesting project pick in the seventh round.

Calgary Flames
Grade: C
We like the Sven Bartschi pick, but, and we regret that Flames fans may be unhappy with the rest of the analysis, but new GM Jay Feaster and his staff took too many unnecessary risks the rest of the way. Bartschi won us over after a perimeter WJC, but we think Markus Granlund went way too high at 45- he's nowhere near the player his brother is. Tyler Wotherspoon is a good defensive player, but at barely over 6-foot, he simply doesn't have the size to be a shutdown D in the NHL, and his offensive upside/sense is pretty poor. We like John Gaudreau a lot- but not as a fourth-rounder. He's the smallest player ever on record to be drafted, and he's going to be hard-pressed to overcome that size deficit. Laurent Brossoit salvaged things in the sixth round- he's a big goalie with skill and potential, but it was too little, too late. This draft could haunt the Flames more for who they left on the board than anything else in about five years.

Carolina Hurricanes
Grade: A
The Hurricanes aren't getting enough credit for their draft- Jim Rutherford and company quietly cleaned up. Ryan Murphy at 12 and Victor Rask at 42 are excellent value picks. Murphy was a popular choice to go to the Bruins, but the thought of him working the power play with Justin Faulk in about three years...yikes. Watch out NHL! Rask underachieved, but to get him 12 picks into the second is good news for Carolina. Keegan Lowe was a tad high, but he is as steady and dependable as they come. Getting Swiss forward Gregory Hofmann was a steal in the fourth round, but unfortunately, he elected to stay in Switzerland rather than come over to Shawinigan, who was prepared to take him in the CHL Import Draft this week. Goalie Matt Mahalak and Brody Sutter (Duane's kid) are nice developmental project picks late. No flaws in this group.

Chicago Blackhawks
Grade: A
This is another team who gets high marks for their draft. Mark McNeill was a solid, solid pick at 17 just like his build. He's a perfect player for the blue collar folks in Chi-town. Phillip Danault was a bit of a surprise, but understand this- the kid is going to play and his intangibles- leadership, work ethic, desire- all rate him near the top of this class. He'll probably be a third-liner, but when you want to win hockey games, this is a guy who will do it for you. Adam Clendening AND Brandon Saad in the second round. Seriously? We like Mike Paliotta more than others in the third- he's a mobile, shutdown guy and winner. Klas Dahlbeck (overager) and Maxim Shalunov are solid value and risk/reward picks in the 3rd and 4th. Andrew Shaw is an overager who had a great playoffs in leading Owen Sound to the OHL championship. Sam Jardine, Alex Broadhurst and Johan Matsson are nothing to write home about, but this was one hell of a draft from the initial look.

Colorado Avalanche
Grade: A-
It's hard to argue with a draft class that headlines with Gabriel Landeskog. B2011DW absolutely loved this stud, and Colorado fans will too. We weren't as big on Duncan Siemens, but knew he'd go a lot higher than where we had him. If he can be the next Adam Foote, the Avalanche will have done just fine. Joachim Nermark had a disappointing season, but he has skill and upside. If he can get his development back on track, he'll be a good one for a fourth-rounder. Garrett Meurs slid down to the fifth round, but again- is decent value given that he was seen as a potential first-rounder coming into it. The Gabriel Beaupre and Dillon Donnelly picks don't do much for us, but for an organization needing grit and toughness, they at least meet that requirement.

Columbus Blue Jackets
Grade: C+
Boone Jenner is a good pick in the early second round for the Blue Jackets, but he's more likely a third-line character guy than a top-six stud. T.J. Tynan is a gutsy pick, but he was passed over a year ago, so can he thrive in the NHL with his lack of size? If his life is anything to date, he'll keep proving doubters wrong. Mike Reilly is a long-term project because of his lack of physical maturity, but has the tools to be an interesting project. Now, people will say Seth Ambroz is a great value pick in the fifth round, and on paper he is, but we're just not sold that he'll ever be the player he could be. More power to him if he can prove everyone wrong, but let's just say that his prodigious fall was not an accident. And we'll leave it at that. Lukas Sedlak and Anton Forsberg aren't much to speak of as legitimate NHL prospects. On paper, this draft class looks OK, but it lacks any real true high-enders, save for Tynan. And with his size, he's a risk until he can fight his way into the NHL and stay there. Columbus gets bonus points for landing Jeff Carter, but Brian Campbell's rejection in not waiving his no-trade to go there stings.

Dallas Stars
Grade: B
Jamie Oleksiak is a solid selection where they got him with major upside if he keeps developing and becomes more Zdeno Chara than Hal Gill. Sarnia power forward Brett Ritchie was also a solid value pick with upside at 44th overall in the second round. The rest of the guys, Emil Molin (not well known in Sweden), Troy Vance (another huge D but very raw), Matej Stransky and Jyri Jokipakka are some risky picks who may not return big dividends.

Detroit Red Wings
Grade: A
They did it again. After trading their first-rounder (23) to Ottawa (Matt Puempel) they still landed a first-round talent in Tomas Jurco, who looks like an absolute natural with that winged wheel crest on his chest. GM Ken Holland then worked the board like the draft pro he is, grabbing value picks like they were going out of style: Ryan Sproul in the second, Alan Quine in the third. Marek Tvrdon in the fourth, Philippe Hudon in the fifth. Alexei Marchenko could be better than any of them, and they got him in the seventh round. Seventh! Xavier Ouellet was a bit high for us, but with his smarts and puck skills, if anyone can thrive in that system it is him. Once again, the Wings prove that you don't need to have high picks to build your organization.

We'll be back with part two, commencing with the Edmonton Oilers, who are at the head of the class.

50 in 30: #13 Jamie Oleksiak

Jamieson Oleksiak, D Northeastern Huskies (Hockey East)
6-7, 244
Born: December 21, 1992 in Toronto, Ontario
Shoots: Left

Scouting report:

Strengths:Huge- a manchild with boundless physical potential. Gigantic frame and long limbs; some strength and conditioning personnel think he will play in the NHL at 260-270 pounds when he reaches his physical peak; Oleksiak himself thinks he has another 1 or 2 inches left in him yet (his father is 6-8). Very good skater for such a big kid- has a long, powerful, fluid stride and surprisingly strong lateral agility and footwork. Coordination is the key with Oleksiak- he shed his awkwardness and gangly performance a year ago in the USHL to become a poised, confident mobile defenseman. Decent with the puck; handles it pretty well and can move it out of his zone with the effective breakout pass. Big, booming shot that he gets a lot of torque and power on. Defensive shutdown guy who excels with his positioning and long reach. Condor-like wingspan; if a player tries to beat him to the outside, then feel free to get up for a bathroom break- it will be awhile. Plays with an aggressiveness and edge- fought in the USHL before coming to NU and will likely be a guy who drops the gloves in the pro once he’s out of the NCAA. Told B2011DW at the NHL Scouting Combine that he intends to return to Northeastern for the 2011-12 hockey season. Has rapidly developed into a first-round draft prospect in a short time- one of the more remarkable stories of progression in the entire class.

Weaknesses: Hockey sense is the biggest question mark preventing him from being a slam-dunk top-10 pick. Struggles with decision-making, especially when under pressure and duress. May not have the instinctive feel for the game or on-ice vision necessary to be the sum of his very impressive parts. Shot, while powerful, could use tweaking with the mechanics: has a big windup that takes time to get off, doesn’t hide his release point all that well.

Multimedia:

Jamie Oleksiak combine interview (Exclusive B2011DW video)
e

Style compares to: Zdeno Chara (if he develops offensive side of game), Hal Gill (if he becomes a shutdown guy only)

Draft prediction: With Oleksiak it’s going to come down to pick your flavor. If a team picking high enough sees Tyler Myers/Chara potential in him, then he’ll go around 10. If he’s seen as Gill (and there is no shame in that as a Stanley Cup champion with more than 1,000 NHL games), then Oleksiak will have to wait a bit longer. This kid is solid and safe- he’s going to play in the NHL because his size/strength/wingspan cannot be taught. The dilemma which exists in the minds of NHL teams contemplating him with an early pick is whether he possesses the real upside to justify it. Depending on who you talk to, he does. Benefited big-time (no pun intended) from being a late-'92, as he would have been a late-round pick in 2010 because he was so awkward and uncoordinated a year ago. Now that he's grown into his body and the coordination is there for him, he's earned himself those nice bonuses that come with being a top-30 selection.

Projection: Potential No. 1 or 2 two-way, defensive stalwart and PP point man if he reaches his ceiling. Solid No. 4 shutdown guy if he doesn’t. B2011DW wasn't huge on Oleksiak at the beginning of the year, but the improvement we saw from him between November and March (live viewings) was astounding. There's a lot to be said about a kid whose progression is as high as his has been over the last 12-24 months. He's deserving of a 1st-round selection, but just where he goes will be a reflection of where the NHL teams see his upside.

Background: Father, Richard, is a Buffalo native- attended the Nichols School there and is a Colgate University graduate. One of five children: Older brother, Jake, played hockey for Clarkson. Has one older sister and two younger sisters(both are accomplished athletes- one plays hockey/is a rower, the other a swimmmer). Born in Toronto, but dual-citizenship by virtue of his father’s status as American citizen. Skated with Tyler Seguin and Jeff Skinner in Toronto Nationals minor midget under head coach Rick Vaive. Played in the USHL for the Chicago Steel and Sioux Falls Stampede. Attended Crestwood Prep in North York, Ontario where he played 8-man rugby in addition to hockey. One of the final cuts for the U.S. National Junior (Under-20) Team for the 2011 World Jr. Championship in Buffalo.

If Oleksiak had his own soundtrack it would be: "Big Gun"- AC/DC


Quotable:

“I see myself as a player similar to Zdeno Chara. Obviously, I have similar size and I think I can move pretty well. I’m still working on my feet, but I’m finishing my checks and playing well defensively. I’m pretty good with the puck and can make offensive plays up the ice and on the power play.”- Jamie Oleksiak to B2011DW; June, 2011


“Is he Tyler Myers or is he Hal Gill? That’s the big question, right? There are nights when he looks like a Myers or Zdeno Chara and others when you wonder whether he’s going to be anything more than a solid, middle-pairing ‘D’ who will play, but isn’t going to bring much to the table. There’s some risk with this kid, but guys as big as he is and who skate as well don’t grow on trees. Someone will take a chance that he’s the next ‘Big Z’”- NHL scout to B2011DW; May, 2011

The scoop:

Oleksiak has skill set to match the giant size- NHL.com feature by Mike G. Morreale

Friend D.J. Powers from HockeysFuture.com weighs in on Oleksiak here.

NHL Combine video: Jamie Oleksiak

Northeastern University freshman Jamie Oleksiak completed his fitness testing in the first group for Friday at the 2011 NHL Scouting Combine.

After everything was over, he and Rocco Grimaldi met with assembled media to discuss the performance and his combine experience overall.

The two were kind enough to stand next to one another to give a perspective between one of the biggest players in the draft and one of the smallest.

Grimaldi was highly impressive and we'll have more video on him when his draft profile gets posted.

Fitness testing update

The first group is done this morning with the fitness testing at the NHL Scouting Combine.

Guys who have stood out in a good way: Mark McNeill with his size and musculature. This kid is a beast with the arms of a pro wrestler- some of the most impressive thickness and natural strength for an 18-year-old. Rare physical specimen who is ahead of the power curve among his peers. Jamie Oleksiak and Tyler Biggs also stood out for their size and physical prowess.

Oleksiak and Rocco Grimaldi were together backstage behind the TSN platform a few moments ago and we were able to shoot some quick video of the two of then standing side-by-side.

We'll have much more on the fitness testing later.

Central North American Skaters final rankings: The next tier

In our last post, we looked at Central Scouting's top-10 North American skaters released today. Now, we'll look at the next tier of the first round, bringing you up to speed on most of the players from 11-30.

To see the Central final North American rankings, click on this link.

At 11, London Knights center Vladislav Namestnikov is a highly skilled and creative pivot who made the easy transition in his first North American season after coming over from Russia. Like Gabriel Landeskog, he has excellent command of the English language and speaks so well that aside from his slight accent, you would think he's just another kid from Oakville or even Milwaukee by the way he talks. He's also got the bloodlines: his father, Evgeny Namestnikov, was a defenseman played 43 NHL games with the Vancouver Canucks, New York Islanders and Nashville Predators, but also spent more than 400 games in the AHL and IHL before returning to Russia. His mother's brother, is Vyacheslav Kozlov, the former Detroit Red Wings scorer and Stanley Cup champion.

Two intriguing defensemen are on the list at 12 and 13: Portland puck mover Joe Morrow, up four spots to 12 from mid-term and the huge but polarizing Jamie Oleksiak, who zipped up the rankings 14 spots from 27. Morrow has a big shot and sees the ice well with a good touch on the puck, while Oleksiak is a massive 6-7, 240-pounder with giant wingspan and good mobility and agility for such a huge kid. Some see real upside with him, but we have questions at this blog as to whether his decision-making, vision and overall feel for the game will allow him to be the Tyler Myers or Zdeno Chara-type player some are comparing him to. Oleksiak is a strong bet to play in the NHL, but if he's more of a role player, you don't want to spend a pick close to 10 on someone like that.

Two big centers with the same first name and some intriguing upside in Mark McNeill and Mark Scheifele are on the list at 14 and 16, as is winger Zack Phillips, the third Saint John player in the top-15. Phillips may not be a blazer, but as far as players with quick hands and the knack for being at the right place at the right time go in this class, there aren't many better than the former UMass recruit and Lawrence Academy standout who switched gears for major junior and a faster track to the NHL.

Brandon Saad fell down the list from 8 at mid-term to 19th. A poor finish and so-so playoffs likely contributed to the fall from grace for the power forward. We'll take a closer look at Saad and his declining stock in a later post.

Another big American who took an even more sizeable drop is Tyler Biggs (no pun intended), who went from 5th overall at mid-season to 22nd on the final list. Like Saad, we'll examine the reasons for this drop a little later on.

Biggs's NTDP teammate, J.T. Miller, dropped 10 spots from 13 to 23 likely on the lack of production. Although he has size and skills, he has yet to really put it all together and may be little more than a solid third-liner at the NHL level.

Defenseman Connor Murphy, who was an "LV" or limited viewing at mid-term because of a back injury, played his way into the top-25, and brings a lot of projectable tools and some offensive potential. The U18 tournament could make or break him as a legitimate rising star for this draft. He is just ahead of USHL rearguard Scott Mayfield, who is probably listed generously at 24, as his stock has taken a downturn based on assessments that he has not progressed much in Youngstown.

Matt Puempel is a curious selection at 28; he's up just one spot at 29, but it's hard to imagine that the 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year and a guy who scored 30+ in each of his two OHL seasons (and could have had 40 this year had he not been forced to shut it down with a hip injury when a month remained) would be drafted as low as the Central ranking indicates. Jeff Skinner redux, anyone?

Shane Prince also gets into the first round, moving up 9 spots from 35 to 26, which is good news for a skilled scoring winger. His size is the one real bugaboo, and he's been criticized for putting himself into vulnerable positions and getting lit up with big hits. He suffered shoulder and head injuries late in the season.

Swedish winger Rickard Rakell is another B2011DW favorite; a speedy, agitating forward who played very well at the WJC when Landeskog went down. He missed time due to a lower body injury, but got into the playoffs at the right moment, helping to defeat Kitchener in the opening series. He's not all that big or strong, but is capable of making big-time plays.

We will be back with more on Central's North American rankings later tonight.

NCAA 2010-11 regular season roundup

Next up in the regular season recap just in time for the NCAA tourney is a review of the top collegiate players eligible for the NHL draft. We'll also take a look at a couple of overagers and even close out with a few potential free agent signings.

1. Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern (HE)- We covered the mammoth (6-7, 244) defenseman for the Huskies in pretty good detail earlier this month after seeing him in Boston, so we won't rehash here other than to say he's a big riser in draft discussions. Admittedly, B2011DW is not as sold on his high-end upside, though we have no doubt that he will be an NHL player at some point simply because his size and mobility will earn him a job in the big show as a shutdown defender if nothing else. His coordination and footwork are so good for an 18-year-old player with his height and long limbs (read: call him "Condorman" with that gigantic wingspan of his and long stick)- usually, kids as young as he is are gangly and struggle with their movements into they grow into their bodies. Not so with Oleksiak, which is what makes him so intriguing. That said, his overall instincts and vision are questionable, and while he's got a bomb of a shot, he's going to need to refine his mechanics and release in order to make it work at the next level. Better yet, change it up and use the wrist shot and snap shot to bury pucks when he's short on time and space to get the howitzer off. But other than that, he's a legitimate 1st-round prospect and the best NCAA player in this class by a pretty wide margin. Oleksiak finished his freshman season with four goals and 13 points in 38 NCAA games, while adding 57 minutes in the box. Time will tell whether he lives up to the promise some scouts are talking about seeing with him, but when taking chances on players with high draft picks, it's all about the projection, and he has some of the most intriguing raw upside of any prospect in 2011.

Check out Northeastern coach Greg Cronin's comments about Oleksiak's winning goal at 2:32 of this video. Uh-huh. What we've been saying.

2. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HE)- Another second-half riser. We were pretty unimpressed with Nieto early on, when it looked like the SoCal native was overmatched in the bigger, faster, more physical Hockey East. But to his credit, he really picked it up and late season viewings were night and day compared to what we saw in the fall and early winter. Nieto's wheels and hands are elite; he can put defenses on their heels at whim and he's doing a lot more to drive the net and use his creativity to generate scoring chances.The 5-11, 185-pound forward finished his freshman season with10 goals and 23 points in 39 games, but much of his production came from January-March. We see him as a late 1st-round darkhorse who could break into the top-30 picks because a strong team drafting late believes in his skills and upside, but also realizes the time and patience it will take to develop Nieto. If he drops into the second, he won't last very long- his game-breaking element is simply too attractive to pass on.

Here's a great shortside snipe by Nieto which not only shows you his impressive breakaway speed but his hands as he fires the puck past John Muse

3. Adam Clendening, D Boston University (HE)- Once seen as a solid 1st-rounder in some circles, the Western New Yorker is a polarizing figure for scouts this season. Most acknowledge and respect his vision and soft hands for moving the puck and distributing very well in the offensive zone and while on the power play. On the downside, he's under 6-feet and doesn't have the kind of explosive jump and top-end speed NHL teams want in smaller defenders. He's not a bad skater at all, but without the separation speed and short distance acceleration, scouts are wondering where he projects at the NHL level. He's a quality player and competitor- this is the kind of guy who you can easily envision a team with multiple early picks spending a second-round choice on because he is one of the better PMDs in this draft class. At the same time, because he carries risk because of the lack of size and dynamic skating, a player like Clendening could fall to the third round. Although we like him a lot, B2011DW doesn't see a first-round future for the Terrier who scored 5 goals and 26 points in 39 games as a freshman. He is a winner, though- having won a pair of Under-18 gold medals in '09 and '10 and just missing the cut for the 2011 WJC (Under-20) this past winter. He's no stiff, but the dreaded "'tweener" word has been used by a couple of NHL guys with him, so we'll have to see. For what its worth- Red Line Report has him ranked 38th overall in their March listing.

Here's a local feature from Buffalo on Clendening last summer while he was trying to make the U.S. WJC team.


4. Michael Mersch, LW Wisconsin (WCHA)- This two-way center is one of the draft's true stealth fighters. At 6-1, 195, he has nice size, is a good skater and plays an honest, hard-working game in all zones. Mersch's numbers aren't much to get excited about- 8 goals, 19 points with the Badgers this season in 41 games. But, to focus on the stats is not to see the longer-term potential in this kid's game. He's lacking in lower body drive and physical mass. When he gets stronger, he's going to generate more power in his skating stride and be stronger on the puck. Scouts we talked to said that he was on the wrong side of many physical matchups this season, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. When he gets more mature and experienced, we could see Mersch becoming a solid scorer at this level and looks like he'll eventually be a steady 3rd-line guy in the NHL with enough skill to possibly break into a team's top-six at some point.

5. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA)- This skilled, speedy center had to contend with injuries and a slow start, but if the second half is any indication for the Colorado native (and brother of Florida Panthers prospect Drew Shore), he'll go within the top-60 picks of the June draft. Shore is a fine skater with a fluid stride and some gitty-up in his step. He can handle the puck well at speed and sees the ice well/ is a deft passer and setup man. He's a versatile, hard-working guy who can be used in all situations. He's not all that big at 6-0, 185, but comes from a family of good athletes and will add enough strength to his frame that it should not be an issue for him. Factor in that he's in a very good pro-style program at Denver, and he's a pretty well-rounded prospect with some promise. Solid 2nd-rounder in our view after scoring 7 goals and 18 points in 37 games this season and showing flashes of first-round talent.

6. Patrick Koudys, D RPI (ECAC)- At 6-4 and 210 pounds, this freshman Engineer is quite mobile and intriguing, but he didn't play much of an offensive role for his team this year, worked into the mix slowly. He had just 1 goal and 3 points in 30 games, but still has the physical tools to be an intriguing player worth a mid-round developmental pick. He came from the OJHL where he had 5 goals and 33 points, so there is some potential to play more of a two-way game as he gains experience and his ice time increases, but right now, the Smithville, Ontario native is flying under the radar a bit. Think of him as a poor man's Jamie Oleksiak- not quite as big and lacking in the pure upside, but precisely the kind of player NHL teams will roll the dice on.

7. Dillon Simpson, D University of North Dakota (WCHA)- A bit of a disappointing season for a player scouts had some real high hopes for coming in. The son of former NHL forward and HNIC analyst Craig Simpson (and nephew of television reporter Christine Simpson) has decent size at 6-1, 195. He scored 2 goals and 10 points in 30 games as a freshman and wasn't overly involved in the offensive scheme/didn't get a lot of ice time. He's a work in progress who has some soft hands and hockey sense, but isn't a great skater. He's slow out of the blocks and needs to work on his stride to get the most out of his movement. Scouts see intriguing elements of his game, but after 12 goals and 41 points last year with Spruce Grove of the AJHL, more of an impact was expected from him- he did not deliver. This is not to say Simpson isn't a legitimate NHL prospect- he is. He grew up around the game and has the natural athleticism to be a player, but this season showed that it is going to take time and he'd require a leap of faith for a team to draft him in the first two rounds.

8. Frankie Simonelli, D Wisconsin (WCHA)- Another undersized defender who has some real good wheels, Simonelli is a U.S. NTDP product like Nieto, Clendening, Mersch and Shore (are we sensing a trend here?) However, scouts we've talked to don't have great things to say about his instincts and vision. Despite his mobility and good puck skills, he didn't produce much in the NTDP and had 2 goals 11 points in 39 games this year as a freshman. Said to have a tendency to force things that aren't there, he makes too many mistakes and is a draft wildcard- might not get picked at all. He'll be a serviceable NCAA player in the next couple of years, though.

Overagers in draft

Not a comprehensive list, but here are three guys passed over in 2010 who could get the nod the second time around.

T.J. Tynan,C Notre Dame University (CCHA)- Tiny (5-8, 160) but dynamic playmaker racked up 55 assists in 60 USHL games with Des Moines last season and was highly regarded for his speed, hands, creativity and willingness to go into traffic. Yet, no team called his name. Well, after 22 goals and 52 points as a freshman with the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame last season, look for him to get a call even if it comes in the latter rounds. The Feb. 1992 BD is the kind of small guy you roll the dice on, because he's a proven producer and shows the attributes you look for in terms of a player who keeps his feet moving, is always involved in each shift, and displays the kind of creativity and high-end hockey sense that's worth taking a chance on.

Chase Balisy, F Western Michigan University (CCHA)- Average-sized, but highly skilled forward had a nice impact as a freshman, scoring 12 goals and 30 points in 41 games, good for second on his team. He's good quick feet and is a very good stickhandler. He may just have done enough as Feb. '92 to get drafted, but you never know.

Sahir Gill, F Boston University- Undersized forward (5-10, 180) from British Columbia brings a good mix of speed and skill to the mix. Got off to a quick start for the Terriers, but tailed off in production toward the end, finishing with 6 goals and 25 points in 39 games. Kind of went the opposite direction of Nieto, impressing early, but fading as the grind of the college season wore on. He's got some jump and creativity, and just might be a guy an NHL team will call in the 6th or 7th round.

Free agents

This is not a comprehensive list, but a few names who could be signed this week, or whenever their NCAA teams get eliminated from the national championship tournament (or go the distance). It's heavy on the Hockey East because that's where we have our most access, but this will give you an idea of a couple of intriguing guys out there.

Stephane Da Costa, C Merrimack (HE)- The straw that stirred Merrimack's drink- this native of France will be in high demand by NHL clubs lining up to sign this creative, game-breaking scorer. With 14 goals and 44 points in 32 games this season, the former USHL standout with Sioux City has 30 goals and 89 points in two seasons in the Hockey East. An elite puckhandler, he doesn't have explosive speed, but weaves in and out of defenses effortlessly and uses his superior hands, vision and instincts to get things going. He's gotten stronger and worked on his overall game. Although only 5-11, 180- the 21-year-old has the makings of a very good pro. Although just a sophomore, its time for him to move on.

Paul Thompson, LW UNH (HE)- This short, but stock and strong power winger is one of the better pure goal scorers in the college free agent market. The former Pinkerton Astro from Derry, N.H. is the rare superstar at UNH who actually hails from the Granite State. He doesn't have a great first few steps, but is effective when he gets up to speed and is adept at ripping shots home off the rush. He bulls his way to the net and is strong, powerful despite only being about 6-feet. He has a knack for finding loose pucks in front of the net and burying them. Good character guy who will boost an organization, even if may require seasoning to reach the NHL level. Scored 28 goals and 54 points in 37 games for the Wildcats this season, giving him 47 in 78 games over the last two years.

Andy Miele, C Miami (CCHA)- Small, heady offensive playmaker who is a terrific passer and thinks the game better than most. He's not a blazer, but gets where he needs to go. Instinctive, opportunistic scorer who plays with a lot of energy and hustle- outworks opponents and stays tenacious on the puck. Solid all-around guy who is limited only by his 5-8 frame and lack of strength- classic overachiever who is more than the sum of his parts. The Michigander has racked up 39 goals and 115 points in his last two seasons, totaling 81 games.

Chace Polacek, C RPI (ECAC)- Another small (5-8) but heady, nasty scoring player. Has a wicked shot and has been a proven scorer over the past two seasons, accounting for 47 tallies and 100 points in 76 games for the Engineers in two seasons (21 goals, 48 points in 37 games this year). From Edina, Minnesota, he's another pure scorer who just knows how to find the back of the net and has worked hard to overcome his size deficiencies.

Tyler Elbrecht, D Minnesota- Mankato (WCHA)- Big (6-4, 210) meat-and-potatoes defender from Illinois doesn't have a lot of flash, but has great strength, reach and uses his positioning to play effectively in his own end. Not much offensive upside here, and his skating is only OK, but he has the natural size and toughness to be an NHL depth guy down the road.

John Muse, G Boston College (HE)- We have liked this guy since seeing him compete like a madman at Nobles (where his teammates included current New Jersey Devils rookie D Mark Fayne). Muse has won a pair of national championships and could win a third, which would be an amazing feat. He's small, and that's the problem as far as NHL teams are concerned, and why he's never been drafted. Small goalies pretty much have to force themselves into the picture these days, but with his quickness, technique and winning pedigree, he just might get a shot to make it somewhere. It will take a lot of work and time on his part, but he's one of the more athletic and dynamic little goalies to come around in a long time.

We know there are more free agents out there, but we'll wrap up this post for now and possibly revisit later.

Hockey East scouting reports: Jamie Oleksiak, Matt Nieto, Adam Clendening, Sahir Gill

Had a chance to see the Northeastern Huskies take on the Boston University Terriers at Agganis Arena in Boston last weekend. What follows are reports on three key 2011 draft-eligibles who played in the game we saw.

The game itself, a Northeastern victory, was a ragged, penalty-filled affair that didn't lend itself to much fun from a scouting perspective, as the 2011 players were limited in terms of ice time and ability to get untracked show off their best attributes.

Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern University (Hockey East)
Huge kid at 6-7, 240 pounds and may not be done growing. Pretty mobile for someone so big, and more importantly, so young. Many guys Oleksiak's size are very gangly and still developing their coordination for their big bodies. He's already pretty much there and has a long, fluid stride and better footwork at this stage than most would think. He covers a lot of ground with the long stride and power behind it. Massive wingspan and long stick make it virtually impossible for opponents to beat him to the outside. Mobility makes it a challenge for them to go inside on him as well. With more work on his skating, could be even more mobile and difficult to beat. Working on his reads and progressions- still a work in progress who sometimes tries to do too much in his own end- needs to keep things simple. Decent passer on short to intermediate feeds, but on-ice vision is questionable and lacks the accuracy to stretch opposing defenses with long leads. As can be expected, has a big drive given all the power and torque he can generate on his twig. Needs to work on improving the accuracy and release. Important to avoid the lazy comparisons to Zdeno Chara or Tyler Myers because of size/mobility alone- those guys are more skilled with the puck and shooting skills than Oleksiak and he has a long way to go to reach that level. Oleksiak has upside, but may end up being more of a shutdown guy in the NHL. One thing he has going for him that most will never achieve no matter how well they are coached or how hard they work is that monstrous size. That should get him to the NHL, but still a wildcard in terms of what he's going to be at that level. Oleksiak will be a first-round pick, but based on what we've seen in multiple viewings this season, we'd take him at the end of the round instead of earlier. There is some risk that he'll be more Hal Gill than Chara, but he's at least made himself into a top-30 option with his potential, and Gill has fashioned a nice NHL career dating back to his league debut in 1997 with Boston.

Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (Hockey East)
The California winger is small, but very talented and is coming on strong after a tough start (3 points in first 12 NCAA games with the Terriers), having scored two goals and 9 points in last eight games. Nieto's wheels are first-rate: he has a very quick burst and accelerates to top speed quickly. He's also shifty and elusive, able to burn opponents in a footrace or turn them inside-out with a dazzling array of weaves and tight turns on his edges. One of those players who immediately draws you in with his skating- fun to watch when he revs it up and takes it up ice. He has a very quick stick and can handle the puck effectively at top speed. A legitimate breakaway threat and game-changer. When on his game, he's backing defenders up and using an array of head and body fakes to create space for himself. Creative and sees the ice pretty well. His a lightning release and very soft touch/knack for finding soft spots in defenses with his passes. Competed hard around the puck, but needs to pick up the intensity away from the play. Nieto is only average-sized and like most players his age, needs to get stronger/add mass to his small frame in order to handle the rigors of pro hockey. Was inconsistent in his willingness to do the dirty work in the corners and probably needs continued adjusting to the level of competition in the HE.

Here's a vid of Nieto scoring against BC from NHLDraftVideo (Jerome B.)


Adam Clendening, D Boston University (Hockey East)
Not a great game from Clendening, who started better than Nieto did at the beginning of the year, but who seems to have stalled a bit in recent viewings. Listed at 6-0, but is closer to 5-10 in reality and out of skates. Skating is OK- but Clendening lacks the explosiveness and pure speed you want to see from undersized defenders. He is more quick than fast- elusive and very good with his edgework. Pivots and turns are very good; he changes direction well and can transition quickly. Excellent stick and on-ice vision for making long leads and crisp breakouts. A superb passer who can tic-tac-toe with the best of them. Smart and instinctive; reads the developing play well, which allows him to beat checkers despite not having great wheels. Shot is average; projected as a better distributor/set-up guy on the PP than triggerman at the next level. Does have a quick release, but lacks the power and velocity you want to see from the point. Good, solid competitor; has strong intangibles like work ethic and a winning attitude. The real issue with Clendening is the lack of size, explosiveness and power. Justin Faulk is a better skater and has a bomb for a shot, two areas the BU defender is not as proficient in. Faulk was an early second-round selection last June (Carolina), so although the two draft classes are different, we wouldn't be surprised to see Clendening drop a little further than anticipated because of concerns about the size/mobility. There is no denying he can move the puck and set up the play, but as he moves up in levels and faces bigger, stronger, smarter players, it will become more and more difficult for Clendening to beat opponents with his sense and stick. He's a solid prospect, but like Oleksiak (though for different reasons), Clendening is more of a wildcard at this stage. You might see a team with a surplus of picks like Florida or Ottawa take him early in the second, but teams with limited selections may stay away from him until later in the second or third rounds.

Here's a highlight vid from HockeyEast Online- check out the great homerun pass he makes to Alex Chiasson at about the 1:52 mark.


Here is a post-game video featuring both Clendening and Nieto side-by-side.

Sahir Gill, F Boston University
Undersized winger and overager from British Columbia and the BCHL's Vernon Vipers can really fly. He's been involved in the BU offense quite a bit as a freshman and has quick burst and separation gear. Anticipates the play on offense and stays involved when the play transitions from his own end. Possesses nice offensive hockey sense and a nose for the net. Plays a chippy, borderline dirty style, but holds his own despite the lack of size. Could be a late-blooming diamond-in-the rough. Didn't key on him a lot, but could be a solid mid-to-late round sleeper for a team willing to spend time letting him develop in the NCAA and in minor pro before he's ready to make an impact.

Here's another HockeyEastOnline video from YouTube that shows highlights from last Friday's game against NU. Gill shows nice finish on a shortie from Nieto on the game's winning tally.

Prep semifinals tonight

Enjoying the time here after being Boston Bruins-focused all of yesterday.

Will be at Ristuccia Memorial Arena this morning for their practice to gather more material for the New England Hockey Journal, but the meat of the trip begins tonight with the Stuart/Corkery (Elite 8) semifinal games.

Milton, led by Vancouver prospect and captain Pat McNally takes on Lawrence Academy at 5:30 pm. Milton has another defenseman, Rob O'Gara, who is from New York and is rising star in the 2011 draft. Similar to McNally last year, he's kind of come from left field this year to impress scouts with his size, mobility, smarts and overall game.

Lawrence doesn't have any single player we're tracking as a 2011 draft option, but will keep the eyes peeled.

Kent will play the 8:00 game against Salisbury and many eyes will be on defenseman Mike McKee, whom we featured on the sleeper alert waaay back in August. He's a sleeper no more. The 6-5, 230-pounder from Newmarket, Ontario won't even turn 18 until August! As far as players with major raw potential, there aren't many better.

McKee's not quite Jamie Oleksiak in terms of huge size and upside, but he's not that far off either, and if he sticks with his current plan of attending Northeastern, he could be playing with the monstrous 6-8 Oleksiak at some point (though he's not slated to arrive at NU until 2012). McKee is also draft property of the Ottawa 67's and there is talk in the NHL community about switching McKee back to forward rather than keeping him on 'D'. Will be interesting to see what happens with him once he is drafted.

Also on Kent is 2012 draft prospect Cristoval "Boo" Nieves, a talented and skilled offensive forward who finished third in scoring on coach Matt Herr's Lions team with 10 goals and 35 points in 25 games this season. He's got some size at 6-3, 185 and has been on NHL draft radars since an impressive Select 15 Festival a couple of years back.

Salisbury has Jack Barre who showed some potential a few years ago, but has not raised his stock to the point that he's considered much of a draft option. He's got some size and power at this level and is a captain, but his hands aren't what they need to be. The youngest Biega brother, Marc, is a '94 BD and therefore not eligible until 2012, but we'll certainly be watching what he does on the Salisbury blue line, just like we did Alex and Danny before him.

Saturday will be another crazy day of hockey with small prep schools (not much to offer) in the am, EJHL in the early afternoon, Belmont Hill-Westminster later and then jetting over to see Northeastern-BU. One of the members of the Bruins hockey operations team said last night at the TD Garden that the Huskies-Terriers match is going to be "where all the scouts in New England are" on Saturday night. With Oleksiak, Matt Nieto and Adam Clendening all going in that one, we don't doubt it.

Should be a blast! We'll have updates as we can post them, so keep checking in.

Colin Sullivan: A Guy You Should Know

Avon Old Farms defenseman Colin Sullivan is considered by many to be the top New England (Founder's League) prep player coming out for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft who is a native of the six-state region.

Guys like Philippe Hudon, Mike McKee and Petr Placek may be considered better NHL prospects, or at the very least, carry a higher profile than Sullivan does, but they aren't from New England. They're all transplanted from elsewhere: Quebec, Ontario and the Czech Republic in their cases. There's also Jamie Oleksiak (Ontario), Adam Clendening (New York) and Matt Nieto (California) who are all making noise in the Hockey East. But none of those guys are native sons of New England.

So, what makes Sullivan the best area option after Mike Paliotta (also a Nutmeg State native, but who left Choate and teammate Hudon to play for the U.S. NTDP)?

Sullivan is an outstanding skater. I mean, really good. I talked to one Eastern Conference NHL scout who was staying at my hotel in Buffalo about him and the first thing he mentioned about Sullivan was the skating. His stride is fluid and he has a quick burst out of the starting blocks. His footwork/pivots/turns are very good and he maintains good balance on his feet when changing direction.

He's currently leading the Winged Beavers in scoring among defenders with three goals and nine points in 13 games thus far, and those stats are nothing to write home about. But to focus on the numbers is to take a diminished view of Sullivan's potential at the next level. First of all, he's getting outstanding coaching from prep legend John Gardner. He's already matched his entire '09-10 output of nine points and only found the back of the net once last season. He essentially played it safe when I watched him, which is fine, but he has the mobility and potential to spread his wings and carry the offense a bit more. He's a bright kid who will be joining Keith Allain at Yale in 2012. Where he plays for 2011-12 is yet to be determined, but he'll try to take his team all the way again this season.

The Milford, Connecticut native is a winner-- his solid play helped Avon to the championship last spring, and while he doesn't have outstanding size (listed at 6-0, 200), his skating chops and potential to be more than the sum of his parts are going to attract some NHL suitors in the spring for sure. He's very good in his own end at the prep level at least and with those wheels, someone will take a chance on him come June.

Now, this space isn't ticketing Sullivan for top-60 consideration, but he does have the solid projection to go as high as the third and at least in the middle rounds. Keep an eye on him.

Central Scouting's mid-season rankings: North American skaters pt. 2

With the background appropriately addressed in the previous post, we'll jump right into the snapshot of Central Scouting's North American skaters for the first round.

At 11th, Ty Rattie deserves to be there, and you could definitely make a case for the diminutive but supremely talented Portland Winterhawks forward being inside the top-10. In talking to one NHL scout out west, he's been most impressed with Rattie's reinvention of his game. Last season, Rattie was a one-dimensional gongshow who spent a lot of his time trying moves that worked in bantam but weren't happening in the Dub. This year, he's taken his skill and creativity to a whole new level.

Former New England prep player Zack Phillips is 12th on the list and while his production is nice for Saint John, his skills aren't much to write home about. His skating is average and while Phillips has nice hands and instincts, he seems a little high here, as you can make the chicken and egg argument with him as it pertains to linemates and a strong team. On one of the weaker clubs in the QMJHL, it's not likely that Phillips would put up the points, because he's just not as creative as you would like. Good kid and player, but just not someone I would have here ahead of say, Ryan Strome for example.

J.T. Miller is a solid option at 13 as another U.S. NTDP product who has size and offensive ability, even if he hasn't been scoring the way he was projected this season. But with Miller's size, skating, sense (and spirit) I would imagine he'll be a solid 1st-round pick come June. He's an Ohio kid who played his minor hockey in the Pittsburgh area, and should become a fixture on the next couple of USA WJC squads coming down the pipeline soon.

Saskatoon Blades rearguard Duncan Siemens has been rated inside the top-10 in some circles and I'm not buying that. I think Central's ranking is a little closer to reality at 14 and he might actually go around 20. Big, mobile and tough, Siemens hasn't been able to put up the points you would expect. I love his toughness and defensive game, but there's just not a lot of upside with this guy. Of course, with Brayden Schenn now cruising through the slot for Saskatoon, Siemens might see a boost in his assist totals. But still, not a huge fan of this player, and talk of him cracking the top-10 is insane, in my opinion. There are so many other better options out there.

Next up at 15 is another B2011DW fave: USHL defender Scott Mayfield. Now, if the Bruins were to draft a power forward with the Toronto pick, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them go with this raw, but very projectable two-way blue liner with size and toughness in Mayfield with their own 1st-round pick if they keep it. I've been told that the St. Louis native (who's committed to Denver University, but whose OHL draft rights are owned by the Kitchener Rangers) is stagnating a little because he plays for a bad team and isn't getting a lot of coaching with the Youngstown Phantoms. I was also told that Mayfield and B2011DW sleeper Mike McKee formed a wicked pairing at the NHL Research and Development Camp in Toronto way back in August. He's a good skater with a booming shot and an edge. Some sources have him way underrated, but I think 15 is about right based on what I know. We'll see what reality entails come June.

Portland puck mover Joe Morrow checks in at 16, and the Winterhawks will once again be well-represented at the NHL draft. He's got nice size, can really fire the puck and teams were hoping he would stay under the radar this season. As Dana Carvey used to say on the old SNL shows when he was impersonating President Bush 41: "Not gonna do it!"

London center Vladislav Namestnikov is a solid option at 17-- he's got bloodlines (father Evgeny played in the NHL and his uncle is longtime forward and Stanley Cup champion with Detroit Slava Kozlov), skill, creativity and has come on strong for the Knights after a slow start. Like Landeskog, he has barely a trace of an accent because he was raised in the U.S. and Canada for most of his young life while his father was bouncing between the NHL, AHL and IHL before returning to Russia. Bruins prospect Jared Knight raved to this blog about Namestnikov's skill and creativity, and declared that he'd be a 1st-round pick back in early December.

Now things get a little iffy. Oshawa Generals center Boone Jenner is ahead of Niagara's Ryan Strome, who is having one outstanding year. Nothing against Jenner-- his skating is improved and he always works his bag off. That said, I find his offensive upside more limited than Strome's. In fact, not entirely sure why Stome is so low on this list. He's closer to 10 than 20, but this is par for course with Central's public rankings and is sure to be a source for debate on the internet message boards this week.

At 20, Jenner's Oshawa teammate Nicklas Jensen comes in. The Great Dane has been playing much more like the moniker of late. I was in person to see him rack up a 4-point afternoon and was impressed not only with the offense, but his play in the defensive zone. He's legit around this spot, though may slide a little lower. But if he keeps playing like he has of late, not too much lower.

From 21-30 there are some interesting players to note:

One of my sources is not all that high on Barrie (OHL) center Mark Scheifele, while others like the big pivot's game. Don't know enough to draw the line in the sand, but the hockey sense and hands are said to be sticking points, so we'll see. Hard to believe he's ahead of Prince Albert's Mark McNeill, though, who is 22, and scoring at a point-per-game pace on a bad offensive club. McNeill is another guy NHL teams were hoping to steal later, but given that he can score and fight, that ain't happening. He's also much father along in his physical development than most 18-year-olds.

I like Tomas Jurco at 24 and Rocco Grimaldi at 25 is interesting. No doubting Grimaldi's skill or dynamic offensive dimension, but man, the kid is t-i-n-y.
His listed height/weight of 5-6/163 is probably a tad generous. Someone will draft Grimaldi, but I would be shocked if it's in the 1st round. Big risk there.

Defenseman David Musil is in free-fall at 26, but it makes sense based on what we've been hearing all year. Big and talented, but doesn't have the offensive upside you want in a top-two, and hasn't played with the kind of intensity/passion scouts like for a shutdown guy who will make his bones in his own end most likely.

Jamie Oleksiak is gi-normous, but probably overrated at 27. Who doesn't love 6-7 d-men with condor-like wingspans, but he's much more Hal Gill than he is Zdeno Chara or Tyler Myers.

Seth Ambroz at 28 is not shocking at all if you've talked to the right people and paid attention to his mediocre statistical output, which in this case, tells the story. He's the classic case of the player who draws raves for his physical prowess and ability years before his draft season, but never really progresses. Someone will take a flier on Ambroz earlier than he should go given the campaign he's had in the USHL, but there's some real bust factor with this guy. He simply doesn't work as hard as he should. And the lack of skating/speed/footwork is a major turnoff with so many big forwards in this class who can actually get up and down the ice well.

Matt Puempel at 29 is Central's Jeff Skinner- What the F*** ? (WTF?) moment for me. OK- I get that he started slowly (after a season-opening hat trick, that is) and I get that Puempel is on a pretty bad team. But ever since Ryan Spooner left, Puempel's play has trended upward. Puempel's not the most explosive guy, nor is he the most consistent or focused, but when it comes to scoring goals, he just knows how to get it done. Those guys are gold, and there's no way, none-- that Puempel will last to 20 let alone 29 in the upcoming draft. And you can take that to the bank!

Mario Lucia of Wayzata H.S. in Minnesota is 30th and I suppose that's fine. I would have Shane Prince or Rickard Rakell there but that's just me. Lucia's got some raw upside, but isn't expected to be a horse the way Nick Bjugstad was coming out of the Minnesota H.S. ranks last season.

Ok, that's a wrap on the first-round. I'll be back later tonight with a look at some guys who dropped lower than expected, some sleepers and a look at the goalies.

Should be up either during or just after the Bruins game, so check back in. And as always, comments welcome!

Team USA WJC roster named- (sigh) not one 2011 eligible makes cut

Team USA is in it to win it, and as such, they released all four 2011 draft-eligible players from the preliminary roster today: defensemen Jamie Oleksiak and Adam Clendening. forwards Brandon Saad and Rocco Grimaldi. None of them will be in Buffalo.

The 2011 National Junior Team was announced by USA Hockey this morning via Facebook and it's comprised of all returning members of the gold medal-winning 2010 team, plus already drafted players like Nick Bjugstad, Charlie Coyle, Jon Merrill, Nick Leddy, Brian Dumoulin, Emerson Etem, Chris Brown, etc.

A major disappointment from a scouting perspective, as getting the opportunity to see these guys was something I was looking forward to. I suspect I'm not the only one, but it was a tough cut to make, obviously.

They put the team together they believe gives USA the best chance to win, not the one that amateur scouts wanted to see.

So, there it is.

I'll have more on Team USA later when I can digest the players a bit and analyze what this team is going to bring to the table. Still going to be a very fun and exciting tournament!

Team USA announces WJC preliminary roster

Team USA announced the preliminary roster for the 2011 U.S National Junior Team (Under-20) today via live press conference at HSBC Arena in Buffalo, N.Y.

The defending gold medal champs are on home soil this year for what's shaping up to be a battle royale after the Yanks managed to stun the host Canadians in Saskatoon a year ago with John Carlson's overtime strike to clinch the championship for the first time since '04.

Although Carlson is gone (and enjoying an outstanding rookie season with the Washington Capitals), Team USA looks like a contender once again. And, they'll need all the help they can get, because Team Canada is going to come at them hard, with top draft candidate Sean Couturier expected to be a part of the mix. Sweden

Team USA GM Jim Johannson revealed the roster, while coach Keith Allain participated via conference call.

"It's an exciting day for many of the players to be announced as candidates for the team," Johannson said. "We're going to be announcing 29 players today; they come from 13 different states (including four from California)."

The team will gather in Troy, NY on Dec. 16 and play its first exhibition against RPI on the 19th.

The 29 player preliminary roster will be whittled down to 22 players, announced sometime on Dec. 22nd.

"It will be tough to let seven players go, it was tough to get down to 29," Johannson said.

Adam Clendening was live on the call as well. Here is what he said:

"First off, I'd like to thank all the evaluators and coach Allain for giving me the chance to possibly make this team," he said.

"It's going to be exciting playing in what I would like to call my hometown," the Niagara Falls native said. "Having it in Buffalo is really special for me."

So without further ado, here are the names:

G- Jack Campbell, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

G- Andy Iles, Cornell University (ECAC) 2011 draft-eligible ('92- overager)

D- Brian Dumoulin, Boston College (Hockey East)

D- Justin Faulk, Minnesota-Duluth (WCHA)

D- Derek Forbort, University of North Dakota (WCHA)- recovered from mono

D- Nick Leddy, Rockford IceHogs (AHL)

D- Jon Merrill, University of Michigan (CCHA)

D- Jamie Oleksiak, Northeastern University (Hockey East) 2011 draft-eligible

D- John Ramage, University of Wisconsin (WCHA)

D- Philip Samuelsson, Boston College (Hockey East)

D- Patrick Wey, Boston College (Hockey East)

D- Adam Clendening, Boston University (Hockey East)- 2011 draft-eligible

F- Nick Bjugstad, University of Minnesota (WCHA)

F- Ryan Bourque, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL)

F- Connor Brickley, University of Vermont (Hockey East)

F- Chris Brown, University of Michigan (CCHA)

F- Mitchell Callahan, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Red Wings prospect- not at summer camp-- "came in off radar-- well-rounded player, plays a physical game, not afraid to mix it up."

F- Charlie Coyle, Boston University (Hockey East)

F- Jerry D'Amigo, Toronto Marlies (AHL)

F- Emerson Etem, Medicine Hat Tigers (WHL)

F- Rocco Grimaldi, U.S. NTDP U-18 (USHL)- 2011 draft-eligible youngest player on the roster

F- Chris Kreider, Boston College (Hockey East)- "dynamic speed that is unparalleled from what I've seen from this tournament in several years."

F- Jeremy Morin, Rockford Ice Hogs (AHL)- "Jet" should move up from third line role he played last year

F- Brock Nelson, University of North Dakota (WCHA)

F- Matt Nieto, Boston University (Hockey East) 2011 draft-eligible

F- Kyle Palmieri, Syracuse Crunch (AHL)

F- Brandon Saad, Saginaw Spirit (OHL) 2011 draft eligible

F- Drew Shore, University of Denver (WCHA)

F- Jason Zucker, University of Denver (WCHA)

2011 draft eligibles quick analysis-

Iles is not considered much of a pro prospect because of his diminutive size, but he is a gamer, having led Salisbury School to the 2009 prep title. His presence on the NTDP and the fact that he played pretty well for Team USA as Campbell's backup made his selection pretty much a no-brainer. A '92 birthdate, Iles was passed over in 2010, but a strong season at Cornell could get him a look. However, as was the case with another small, talented goalie in John Muse, Iles may have to go the free agent route to pursue his pro dream.

"He'll never give up on a puck, he'll never give up on a play," Johannson said of Iles, who has very quick feet and athleticism to compensate for his lack of size.

Oleksiak is huge and raw, but the dual-citizen playing for Northeastern is gaining traction in draft circles as a shutdown guy. A veteran of the USHL, he doesn't have much offensive upside, but moves pretty well for such a big kid and could be one of these off-the-board selections who will be rated lower by Central and independent scouting services, but will get picked higher because of his sheer physical potential.

Clendening is a first-round candidate who is hitting his stride at BU and is a two-time gold medal winner at the Under-18s in '09 and '10. He should make this roster because of his sheer puck-moving ability and international experience.

"He's a guy that shows to me such tremendous poise with the puck," Allain said. "He has no panic point. He can be a power play point guy, can see players away from the puck. We want to be a puck possession team and he's a puck possession defenseman."

Grimaldi may be the most purely skilled of any of the forwards. A blazing skater with tremendous hands, he's most often compared to Brian Gionta at the same age in terms of style and substance because he's been so productive despite the lack of size. It will be interesting to see if he makes the final cut, but when you watch the New England Patriots and see a small guy like Danny Woodhead tearing it up, you have to think that there is a place for a small, uber-skilled player like Grimaldi at the WJC. Everybody loves an underdog.

Nieto, like Grimaldi and Clendening, is an NTDP veteran and gold medalist who brings explosive offense to the mix. A close pal of Etem's growing up in SoCal, Nieto's had a bit of an adjustment to the Hockey East this season, but is still a strong contender for second round consideration and maybe as high as late first depending on how much the teams picking 25-30 like him.

Finally, Saad was touted by Johannson as a top-five pick for the draft. He's a pure power package of size and ability. Unless he lays an egg in the camp and exhibition games, I can't imagine that he'll be left off. He can bring that important physical and skill element to offset the smaller forwards this USA team has.

Central Scouting Watch List: NCAA

Because this blog still waiting to hear from a couple of key sources, we're going to hold off on the OHL and WHL Central Scouting rankings analysis and jump to the NCAA. We won't cover all the ground out there, but will hit the highlights in hopes of filling in the blanks later.

Starting in the Hockey East, there are three 'A' players Central has identified, two of whom come from a rapidly rising Boston University program, just two years removed from a national championship (and oh what a glorious game that was to see live but I digress).

Defenseman Adam Clendening is a New Yorker and U.S. NTDP product who is one of the best puck-moving defensemen available in the entire draft, not to mention the NCAA ranks. As an Oct. '92 birthdate, he just missed out on the 2010 NHL draft, but is in a good situation on Commonwealth Ave. playing for legendary coach Jack Parker. Not big at 5-11, 187 pounds, Clendening is a very good skater with the vision and instincts to ignite the transition and attack. As a member of Team USA's dominant, suffocating defense in last spring's Under-18 gold medal squad, he's seen international competition at the highest level among his peers and acquitted himself extremely well in that tourney. With five assists in 10 games with the Terriers, he's been steady as she goes as a freshman and better things are in store.

"You can see that he oozes hockey sense," one NHL scout who saw Clendening in Belarus last spring said. "He's a bright, cerebral player who can dissect opposing defenses and get pucks out of his zone quickly."

Clendening's teammate, Matt Nieto, is another player to watch. The speedy, explosive forward can pile up the points, but the offense is yet to come for him at BU (1 goal, 2 points in 10 contests). Another late '92, Nieto has a significant amount of potential but may be a longer-term kind of project who will need at least three years in the NCAA followed by a minors stint before he's ready for the NHL grind.

"Nieto was one of the more dynamic American forwards coming out of Ann Arbor," the scout said. "He's got to watch the compete levels and consistency, but when he's on his game, he can skate with anyone and score goals at will. Very talented guy with upside."

Northeastern defenseman Jamie Oleksiak rounds out the HE watch list. The Ontario native and USHL product is raw, but at 6-7 and 244-pounds is a physical beast who will get picked just for his size from the looks of it. Where he goes in the draft, however, will depend on his play for the Huskies this season. His mobility is surprisingly good for a big man, although he does need to improve his agility and pivots/turns. But as far as straight-line speed goes, that long, powerful stride of his covers a lot of ice quickly. There isn't much offensive upside with Oleksiak-- he scored just two goals in 82 USHL games over three seasons with the Chicago Steel and Sioux Falls Stampede, and in 10 NCAA games he's posted a 1-1-2 line. But, if he can be that shutdown guy with a condor wingspan and an edge to his game (a work in progress), he'll go in the top-three rounds.

UMass-Amherst forward Mike Pereira is on the 'B' list for the HE-- and to be frank, B2011DW was stunned that the explosive winger who carried the Avon Old Farms Winged Beavers on his back to the 2010 prep championship was not picked in the NHL draft last June. He's not big, but his wheels are high-end, and he's as opportunistic a scorer as you will find. With five goals in his first eight games for the Minutemen, I think some NHL team will realize its mistake and snap him up come June. BU forward Sahir Gill and Nick Sorkin are on the 'C' list and were also passed over in previous drafts. Gill's hot start could get him a look. Sorkin, who played high school hockey in Silver Spring, Md. before going to the USHL for a tuneup and is now at UNH, is tall and raw. Look for him to go the free agency route when his NCAA career is done.

In the ECAC, RPI defender Pat Koudys is listed as a 'B' player, but with his size and mobility, he could end up going higher than people are projecting. The ECAC has fallen on hard times in terms of where NHL teams view players coming out of that league given competition and games played, but Koudys comes out of the OJHL with top defenseman accolades and at 6-4, 195, will play at around 220-230 pounds when he reaches his physical peak. He's not managed a point in eight NCAA games, but with his skill set, he should get on the board soon.

Jumping out to the WCHA, there are four 'A' players, three of whom we'll discuss briefly.

Denver University's Nick Shore is flying under the radar in most public draft discussions these days, but we're hearing that NHL teams are onto the skilled, intelligent NTDP product.

Red Line Report scout Max Giese said before the season that he saw Shore as a first-round player with the talent, work ethic and two-way game to break into the top-30 over bigger, more widely-known names. Shore is just getting back from being on the injury report, (3-0-0), but watch for him to boost his stock as the Pioneers' season gets rolling. Even if he doesn't get intot he 1st, its hard to imagine he'll drop far into the 2nd round of the draft because of his versatility and value.

University of Wisconisn forward Michael Mersch's stock is also on the up and up.

"Mersch is just getting better and better and is now on the Badgers' first powerplay unit as its' net presence," Giese said via email recently. "He doesn't even shave yet and he's already a broad, thick kid and will get bigger. His nose for the net and soft hands are what endears him most to NHL guys, but he gets underrated as a set-up man."

Mersch doesn't get much pub as a legitimate top-30 draft candidate, and is more likely to fall into the bottom half of the second round. But, if you put faith in that view, the team who gets him might be getting a steal.

On the downside and disappointing to hear, is Giese's assessment of Dillon Simpson, who was recently pegged on this blog as a potential first-round pick for the Bruins in a mock draft.

"He's a smart player defensively, rarely out of position; but he's a pretty bad skater and he doesn't have any poise moving the puck," Giese said. "He's a slushy skater with a short and sluggish stride. His hands are stiff, he struggles to put passes on the tape and he always hurries to get the puck off of his stick. He's getting the ice time right now because of North Dakota's injuries."

As for the CCHA, apologies. This blog space does not know enough about Kevin Clare, Jacob Fallon, (both with University of Michigan), Thomas Tynan (Notre Dame) and the rest of the 'C' players on that list. I will get updates on them as the season goes on.

B2011DW's Official 2010-11 USHL/U.S. college/U.S. juniors Watch List

I'm here with the last of the preseason watch lists. I hope you have enjoyed this series, and be sure to look back on these posts when the season is over, as it will be interesting to see which players lived up to the hype, which ones didn't and those who weren't even listed, but broke into the mainstream with standout performances.

I had the good fortune of having a very productive talk with Max Giese, formerly of McKeen's who is now a Red Line Report scout and covers the USHL and U.S. colleges and even some Canadian juniors. Giese is extremely astute and knows a great deal about the players featured on this particular watch list. He has kindly given his permission for me to quote him extensively on his preseason opinions of the top players projected to come out of the collegiate and junior circuit this year, and like me, Giese is ready for the season to get underway.

The USHL has a trio of very talented players with a lot of size and skill-- two wingers and a defenseman-- in Seth Ambroz, Tyler Biggs and Scott Mayfield, plus the normal contingent of U.S. NTDP prospects who are always in the draft mix in the first few rounds and beyond. Ambroz is the big name, but Mayfield may be the best of anyone coming out of the 'U' this year and has a decision to make as to whether he goes the NCAA route with Denver University, or goes to the OHL with the Kitchener Rangers.

As far as U.S. collegians go, Boston University's Adam Clendening is top dog on this list, but one notable omission is skilled two-way North Dakota defenseman Dillon Simpson (son of former NHL sniper and Bruin killer Craig Simpson) is actually ranked higher on some lists I've seen (notably Red Line Report, who had Simpson 19th in August). But because I have yet to see Simpson and have not been able to find anyone who actually has seen him, I don't have him in the top-10 even though he probably very much should be based on some of the preliminary rankings go. As soon as I or someone I know gets eyes on Simpson, I'll post a scouting report on him.

In eight days, I'll be in Boston checking out the B's prospects vs. the young Islanders, and then the rest of the Bruins vets when they report for the first weekend of main camp. Before we know it, the NHL season will be in full swing, and we can look forward to tracking the progress of those 1st and 2nd-round picks Toronto and Minnesota owe Boston.

But first, here's the last of our unfinished summer business...enjoy!

1. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha Lancers (USHL)-- At 6-3, 205 pounds, Ambroz is a man among boys and has been the same physical presence now for about three years. A formidable power forward in the making, Ambroz is very strong and has the kind of wicked shot and physical game that should be highly appealing to NHL clubs. Now entering his third season for Omaha in the USHL, he should put up some gaudy numbers provided he stays healthy as a primer for the University of Minnesota next year. Ambroz is not without some faults, however. He's got a pretty slow first step and lacks the kind of balance and agility you want in a pro winger. According to some, he tends to take the summers off, and hasn't really addressed the lack of quickness on his skates. Not only is he a notoriously slow starter when it comes to breaking out from a standstill, but that also applies to his play at the start of the season as well, so scouts will be watching early.

"His biggest issue is that he really lacks quickness out of the gate," Giese told B2011DW. "It's an issue that most expected him to work on, and in the three years I've been watching him, I haven't really seen a lot of improvement in, so I think it will be something scouts focus on. He's one of those guys the game comes pretty easy for and he plays effectively at both ends of the rink. He's more of a shooter than a playmaker at this stage of his development."

Even with the initial burst concerns, Ambroz still is a prime candidate to go in the top-half of the opening round in his home state next June, and if he has the kind of big production that is expected of him, you might see him crack the top-10.

2. Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown Phantoms (USHL)-- The St. Louis native's stock shot up a bit with NHL scouts last month when he went to Toronto to participate in the inaugural Research and Development Camp and formed a formidable pairing with Mike McKee. He's got a lot of mass to pack onto his 6-4 frame, but he moves extremely well and shows some nice polish at both ends of the ice. Although committed to Denver, you could see Mayfield instead go to the OHL to join powerhouse Kitchener in the 11-12 campaign, so that will be an interesting development to watch.

"Mayfield's had a mountain of improvement," Giese said of having seen Mayfield from the beginning of his USHL career a year ago. "Everytime you see him, you notice that he's a really good skater and has nice offensive skills. I like that he's assertive with the puck; he came into Youngstown and was running their power play from the get-go and playing about 30 minutes a night for them in all situations."

Mayfield's size and mobility are of obvious interest to NHL teams, but the fact that he can play both defense and generate offense is going to see him off the board early in June if he continues to progress. "I think he's the best USHL defenseman since John Carlson," said Giese. "He's more advanced defensively than Carlson was (in his draft year), but not quite as skilled offensively."

3. Tyler Biggs, RW U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- You may not have heard much about this power winger in the making, but if Biggs can live up to the tantalizing potential he flashed last season, he could end up going in the top half of the NHL draft next summer. At 6-2, 205, he'll add more muscle to his frame, but has the size and strength to be a horse along the boards. Skill-wise, he's a solid stickhandler and has an NHL-caliber shot already, with a quick release and a lot of power on it. He's very physical and uses his size and strength to intimidate opponents. The biggest drawback for him, and likely the reason that there hasn't been more buzz on him thus far is the fact that he's been pretty inconsistent and doesn't always bring his best to every situation.

"He can flat-out dominate with his skills and physical play," Giese said. "The problem is-- he turns it on and off. When the switch goes on, he's often the best player on the ice. When the switch is off, you don't notice him."

Biggs has the hockey bloodlines, too; he's the son of former NHL journeyman and AHL/IHL Cincinnati Cyclones scoring ace Don Biggs, and although born in Binghamton, N.Y. was raised in southern Ohio.

"When he's on his game, he's really strong," said Giese. "I've seen him hurt older kids; he knocked out (Anaheim Ducks prospect) Kevin Lind in a fight last year. He's almost underappreciated in the NTDP because they don't fight there all that much."

Interestingly enough, one of Biggs's three fights last season (in addition to Lind) came against Mayfield. With the snarl and the skill, if Biggs can be a consistent force this season, then the buzz on him will be palpable as he rides that wave into the first round.

4. J.T. Miller, C U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Talented center from Eastern Ohio and the Pittsburgh Hornets developmental organization is highly-ranked, but a lot is riding for him in his draft year. If Ambroz and Biggs are the hulking, physical power forward types, Miller is a more cerebral, skill player with a well-rounded game, but who does not project as a huge point getter in the pros. At 6-1, 190 pounds he has nice size with room to fill out and is a good skater. He comes from the same region of the country that fellow 2011 prospect Brandon Saad does, and the two competed against one another as youths.

"With me it's all about preferences," Giese said when asked about Miller. "He's in the group with Biggs, but he's more of a finesse two-way guy and not a physical or dominant shutdown center. He's a skilled two-way forward and there's some upside there."

5. Mike Paliotta, D U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- The Westport, Conn. native and former Choate Rosemary Hall standout left home for Ann Arbor and the national program last year and it's paying off for him, as he's done well against the bigger, stronger, more skilled competition in the USHL not found in New England prep ranks these days. At 6-3, he's still filling out, but skates real well and is fluid, with a long stride and very good balance, agility and the footwork. He had a tough transition early on, but progressed well on the Under-17 team last year and looks like a solid first-round pick in the second half if he continues to develop. He's probably not going to be a big point getter at the next level, but his skills will see him drafted early. Paliotta will return to New England next year, when he joins Kevin Sneddon's Vermont Catamounts program in the Hockey East.

"I saw him in late February and he was by far the best defenseman on the ice," Giese said, noting the major improvement from the start of the year. "He's big, is a rangy skater and has a good stick; he can make that first pass. He doesn't have the tantalizing upside that Derek Forbort did, but I think that once the top defenders go in the draft, NHL teams picking later in the first round will identify this guy as someone who can help."

6. Adam Clendening, D Boston University (HE)-- The first NCAA entry on this list (and again-- note the Dillon Simpson caveat above) is a skilled defender who, if he were a few inches taller, would likely carry a better draft projection. Listed at 5-11 and 190-pounds, the size won't be an issue for him in the NCAA this year and he should complement David Warsofsky nicely as far as bringing offense from the blue line goes. The New York native is a solid skater who may not possess elite speed, but can move and turn well. His best attributes are his passing and puck skills; he can put the biscuit anywhere it needs to go and sees the ice extremely well. A polished player who did well for USA at the Under-18 championship last spring, winning a gold medal in the process, you should probably see an immediate impact from him on the Terrier blue line. I brought up 2010 second-round pick and fellow NTDP grad Justin Faulk asked for a comparison with Clendening to Giese and he had this interesting insight on the two:

"Clendening can't pound it like Faulk can," he said referring to the diminutive Minnesotan's rocket shot. "But he can hit seams and thread the needle creatively. Clendening isn't as physical as Faulk and is more of a player who will be in proper position and use his stick. I expect immediate success for him at BU."

7. Nick Shore, C Denver University (WCHA)-- The younger brother of '09 Florida second-rounder Drew Shore, Nick is a different player from his older brother in that he doesn't have the size or quite the pure hockey skills, but is more of a mature and intelligent player at this stage of his development. A hard-working and productive graduate of the NTDP, he's ready to take on the college hockey challenge there in his native state of Colorado and could make a splash right away because of his advanced approach and hockey intellect.

"He has really good hands and hockey sense," Giese said of the younger Shore. "Because of his intelligence and poise with the puck, I could see him moving into the first round if he has the kind of season I think he's capable of at DU."

8. Robbie Russo, D U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Cut from the Clendening mold, this smallish but skilled defenseman sees the ice well and is an adept passer. He doesn't have great size (6-0, 180), nor is he a blazing skater, but because he's strong on his skates and possesses the right instincts for the game, he's able to move the puck and play a solid two-way game. He'll quarterback the Under-18 team's power play this year, but according to Giese is more of a gap and stick defender as opposed to a physical, hitting one. Russo could be a second- or third-round pick in June, and will have to make his money on the international scene this year to raise his profile.

9. Matt Nieto, LW Boston University (HE)-- Small but skilled offensive dynamo will infuse some excitement into a Terriers team that is just two seasons removed from a national championship. Another NTDP product and member of that gold medal Under-18 team last spring, Nieto has explosive speed and production potential, but doesn't always bring it on every shift. He'll have to prove his consistency and is in a pretty good situation to do just that.

10. John Gibson, G U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- A tall, athletic goalie (6-3) who has reportedly improved his technique considerably over the last several seasons, Gibson is in position to move rapidly up the draft boards if he can consistently demonstrate his prowess between the pipes given that Jack Campbell is now in the OHL. He has a compact butterfly and moves well laterally, staying square to the shooter and remaining patient. He's going to have to earn the playing time and then perform to get himself into the first round, but he has the physical and mental chops to do it.

"He has ice in his veins," Giese said. "You can't teach a goalie to be composed in big games or make huge saves when his team needs him the most, so he's got that going for him in addition to the skill."

Others of note:

Dillon Simpson, D University of North Dakota (WCHA)-- We'll post more on him as the season progresses, but with the skill and blood lines, this kid could turn some heads for the draft.

Zac Larraza LW U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Big, lanky kid came to Ann Arbor from Arizona with high expectations and hasn't quite met them yet. Described by one scout as "all arms and legs," he has a lot of physical maturing to do, but skates well and brings a good skill level to the table. If he can put it all together this year and produce, you could see him make a run up the draft boards.

Jamie Oleksiak, D Northeastern University (HE)-- The Huskies are mining the Toronto area (see: McKee, Mike) for some gems, and this 6-7, 220-pounder who comes by way of Sioux Falls of the USHL is raw, but has some intriguing potential. The wingspan is gi-normous as one would expect for someone of Hal Gill's height, but he also moves pretty well for such a big man (less speed, but effective edgework). He's got a little puck skills, but is a work in progress who needs to improve speed of decisions and bring a more consistent physical presence.

Mike Mersch, LW University of Wisconsin (WCHA)-- Sound all-around winger isn't going to dazzle, but has good hands and a knack for making plays. He needs to get stronger, and that will come in time, but thinks the game well and how his draft goes will be largely dependent on how Mike Eaves uses him as a freshman.

Frankie Simonelli, D University of Wisconsin (WCHA)-- Another small, skilled defender who is a good four-way skater and can move the puck well. The Illinois native gets lost in the shuffle a bit, but is a strong two-way defender and has some interesting upside.

Cason Hohmann, RW Cedar Rapids (USHL)-- Tiny but highly skilled energy forward had a fine Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team USA, but may get passed over in draft because of concerns about size, lack of explosive jump. He's instinctive, feisty, has terrific hands and can really finish, but will need to put up huge points this year to hear his name called. Boston University recruit will be in Beantown for the 11-12 season.

Rocco Grimaldi, C U.S. NTDP Under-18 (USHL)-- Another extremely small, skilled forward, Grimaldi is the latest in the wave of NHL prospects from Southern California. He's dangerous and productive, but is also an outstanding skater. That gives him an edge when determining whether an NHL team will spend a draft pick on a player who is so undersized.