Grading the 2011 Draft Part 2

We're back with team grades for the NHL's 11-20 for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. Big winner is Edmonton, with the only A+ grade so far.

We'll start off on the right foot with the Oilers, who had a tremendous two days in St. Paul.

Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A+
Potential franchise center in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Check. (We heard all year that 2011 didn't have top talent at the top, but several scouts said RNH was an exception) Potential top-two defenseman with upside and charisma in Oscar Klefbom? Check. Excellent value shutdown D in David Musil? Check. Goaltending depth in Samu Perhonen? Check. Upside and depth the rest of the way with Travis Ewanyk, Dillon Simpson, Tobias Rieder and Martin Gernat? Absolutely. Don't know anything about goalie Frans Tuohimaa, but with a class that strong, who cares? We don't think Steve Tambellini could have set the board up any better in his wildest dreams.

Florida Panthers
Grade: A
Panthers GM Dale Tallon has built quite a war chest in just two drafts. From the looks of it, the 2011 draft upgraded Florida's system even more after what looked like a strong 2010 showing. The Panthers get two high-end offensive players in Jonathan Huberdeau and Rocco Grimaldi with their first two selections. At the end of the second round, they landed intriguing Swedish d-man Rasmus Bengtsson. With a pair of third-round picks, the Panthers grabbed more help up front getting the big and skilled but needing to get more physical Logan Shaw from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles and small, but fiery Vincent Trocheck out of Saginaw. They went to Minnesota for two later picks, grabbing Mr. Hockey Kyle Rau, a highly skilled forward out of Eden Prairie High and Burnsville's Eddie Wittchow. All in all, this is another solid draft in year 2 for Tallon and Co.

Los Angeles Kings
Grade: B
The draft grade is closer to a C, but in landing Mike Richards, the Kings get a full letter grade boost. After trading their first-rounder to Edmonton for Dustin Penner, Lombardi and company picked up goalie help with Christopher Gibson, a talented and good kid who had a strong season with Chicoutimi, but who also has some holes in his technique he'll need to address. They grabbed overage forward and 33-goal man Andy Andreoff from Oshawa and then got some nice value with utility forward Nick Shore at Denver University. They got some raw, but interesting picks later with Mike Mersch, Joel Lowry and Michael Schumacher, but not a great deal of upside here. They are no doubt hoping to make a splash by landing Brad Richards via free agency.

Minnesota Wild
Grade: A-
Some wheeling and dealing boosts Minnesota's grade from the B+ range. Jonas Brodin is one of the smartest defenders in the draft and will need to get a lot stronger, but could prove to be a very good puck mover and power play QB in time. After acquiring San Jose's first-rounder (along with Charlie Coyle) for Brent Burns, they snagged natural scorer Zack Phillips- no issues there- this kid can put the puck in the net. The Wild got nice value late in the second with Minnesota high school sensation Mario Lucia- the heat is on. They got another local product in Nick Seeler and then grabbed the busiest high school goalie in the country in Steve Michalek, who is going to Harvard next season. Closing out with big checking pivot Tyler Graovac out of Ottawa makes it a pretty solid class overall.

Montreal Canadiens
Grade: B+
The Habs got nice value with a player they clearly wanted in Nathan Beaulieu, who surprisingly fell to them. They then lacked picks until the fourth round, grabbing intriguing defense prospect with size, skill out of the USHL in Josiah Didier, whose stock was on the rise in the second half of the season. Olivier Archambault is nothing to get excited about (one source cited character concerns with him as well), but Magnus Nygren is a skilled offensive-minded Swedish defenseman and overager who was at the top of Red Line's European draft eligibles list. After picking Darren Dietz out of Saskatoon in the fifth round, the Habs closed strong with two very good value picks in Czech winger Daniel Pribyl and U.S. prep defender Colin Sullivan.

Nashville Predators
Grade: B-
We love the Magnus Hellberg pick, even if he was a bit of a surprise at 39. He's huge and pretty close to competing for an NHL job. That said, not as sold on Miikka Salomaki's upside. Josh Shalla has great hands but can't skate. Garrett Noonan was a reach (in our view) in the fourth round, while Simon Karlsson, Chase Balisy and Brent Andrews on the whole are not enough to make this an exciting class. It's lacking in value and upside.

New Jersey Devils
Grade: B+
Getting Adam Larsson at fourth overall was a steal for the team that might have taken him first overall, which is where they were for much of the year until putting together a laudable late-season run. The Devils traded its second-rounder to Nashville a year ago for Jason Arnott (Hellberg) and forfeited its own third as part of the Kovalchuk signing fiasco, but picked up Dallas' third-rounder and used it on USHL scoring ace Blake Coleman. The Devs then got a value pick with Team USA sniper Reid Boucher, a steal at 99th overall after helping his team to the gold medal at the U-18s. The Devils got some solid value guys with Blake Pietila, Reece Scarlett and Patrick Daly.

New York Islanders
Grade: A
The Islanders landed a legitimate scoring force with character in Ryan Strome with the fifth overall pick. The, they added excellent value with raw but highly promising Scotty Mayfield early in the second. Not as high on Johan Sundstrom at 50th overall, but if he moves out of center (lack of creativity) he could be a horse of a wing and two-way guy. The Isles got more value with Andrey Pedan and Robbie Russo in the third and fourth rounds. Their Western scout got into the act with a pair of picks in the Dub: Red Deer's John Persson and Brenden Kichton of Spokane was a nice steal for them in the fifth. Mitchell Theoret was a nice way to finish out what looks like a quality and deep draft for the Isles.

New York Rangers
Grade: B+
The Rangers got a skilled centerman in J.T. Miller, but we're concerned with his up-and-down season. He pulled it together at the right team for Team USA in the U-18s, but his overall performance was uneven. Steven Fogarty is a raw but interesting playmaking center project who is quite a few years away. Mike St. Croix was a good value pick, but we've never been huge on him based on reports about a lack of work ethic. Shane McColgan is another value pick- once thought of as a potential first-rounder, but who dropped after a slow start. Small, but feisty and skilled- the question is- can he bring the offensive element with him at the NHL level? He's Brad Marchand-type, so it could happen for him. Rangers went tough late with nasty d-man Samuel Noreau and then added a big shutdown guy in Slovak Peter Ceresnak who underachieved in his draft season, but could play one day.

Ottawa Senators
Grade: A
Ottawa went wild with forwards in this draft class, which could get the sad-sack Sense back into contention in short order. Bryan Murray grabbed a gem with Swede Mika Zibanejad, but followed it up with two more promising players up front out of the OHL in Stefan "Tex" Noesen, a hard-nosed but productive forward out of Plymouth and Matt Puempel could be one of the most natural scoring wings available. They grabbed local 67's player Shane Prince with the Chris Kelly 2nd-rounder from Boston, then got mighty mite Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who had a tremendous playoff run with Gatineau. Fredrik Claesson was a bit of a head scratcher, but he has good wheels and could blossom as an offensive-minded guy when he gets a little more development. The rest of the picks didn't as much for us, but those first five are the types of players who could do big things one day.

Draft day rumor: Nathan Beaulieu to Bruins?

Been hearing a lot of talk about Saint John defenseman Nathan Beaulieu to the Bruins last night and today.

This would be an off-the-board pick, because Beaulieu is not considered in that established top-nine (or Divine Nine- h/t DT) but he's the kind of character player the B's covet and gravitate toward.

The pros of Beaulieu are his size, skating, puck-moving ability/PP skills and grit/toughness.

The cons are that some question his hockey sense (while others list it as a strength- consider opinions divided) and the fact that he failed to generate a lot of offense on the CHL's most dominant team. The pros outweigh the cons, but even some scouts like Red Line's Kyle Woodlief, for example, feel that a top-10 selection for Beaulieu is too high for him.

If Beaulieu is in fact the guy, there are bound to be some disappointed folks out there, just as there will be some happy ones. Given the position of the pick, you hope there is more untapped potential he has yet to show off.

However, if Beaulieu does prove to be Boston's man at nine, there will be some second-guessing involved, even if a lot of the media sources seem to be impressed with him and will likely tout him as a good pick by the Bruins there.

As the 80's group Asia once sang, "Only time will tell..."

Monday rumor mill and draft strategies

It's hard to believe that the 2011 NHL Entry Draft is already upon us with the first round happening Friday night at 7:00 p.m. (EST) from the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.

It's been a long season, and we're approaching 500 posts here on the B2011DW blog. It's been a pleasure to bring you the information and insights on the 2011 draft (and even a small look ahead to 2012 and 2013 as well) so we're going to put the head down, find the hidden energy reserves, and finish out strong.

Much of the draft rumor talk this week revolves around speculation that Steve Tambellini and the Edmonton Oilers are entertaining moving back a few spots to give up the No. 1 choice. Now, while this thought could be dismissed out of hand given the popularity of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but Edmonton at least entertaining offers makes sense for them. This is the second consecutive year that the Oilers own the top pick, and while they will need a pretty sweet offer to move it, one team that could make sense for them to make a trade with is Florida. Dale Tallon has some pretty good currency to work with in terms of extra picks, prospects and even a roster player or two the Panthers could flip to Edmonton for the right to draft Nugent-Hopkins. The Oil would only be moving back two spots, giving them a shot at Adam Larsson or Jonathan Huberdeau, plus they would have extra assets to work with.

It all comes down to how much Tallon is willing to give up, but Florida could use the bounce they would get by selecting RNH a year after trading with the Bruins to send Nathan Horton to Boston as one of the key missing pieces to a Stanley Cup champion.

B2011DW talked to a source who said that Tambellini has quietly taken some calls about that No. 1 pick. A year ago, he was adamant about not moving it, and even tried to trade with Boston to get the first two selections. The philosophy has changed somewhat given Edmonton's need to be a better team now and not later. We can't confirm if the Oilers have talked specifically with Florida about that top selection, but if there is a deal to be made, it makes sense for them because moving back just a couple of spots keeps them in the running for a top forward in Huberdeau or even Gabriel Landeskog, or allows them to land their high-end defenseman in Larsson while adding other pieces to the cupboard.

We shall see whether the Oil stands pat at 1 or they flip the pick for more assets.

Another option for them is to try and package additional assets to try and move up from 19, where they currently own L.A.'s first pick, to the top-10 to try and land a second high-profile prospect.

As far as players go, Mika Zibanejad looks like a slam-dunk inside the top-8, which means that the Bruins will have a nice shot at any one of Ryan Murphy, Ryan Strome and maybe even Sean Couturier. Zibanejad exploded onto the scene after playing very well in Sweden's top pro league and impressing NHL teams with his winning attitude and personality. Where the B's once hoped to have a shot at him at ninth overall, that isn't happening. We don't think he'll get past Ottawa at six.

Also hearing from a good source and friend that the rumored Jeff Carter to Columbus from Philadelphia for eighth overall (and possibly a player) deal is done and that the Flyers will jump ahead of Boston in the draft order, with announcement pending sometime this week. If this is in fact true, then expect the Flyers to snap up Strome if he is on the board, which we would expect would mean that Murphy would probably be the guy to go to Boston at nine. Strome or Murphy- Ryan's Hope- either way, Boston wins. They get another Tyler Seguin-style high-end scorer to insure them against an early Marc Savard retirement, or they get a Phil Housley-type elite skills offensive-minded defender who becomes the best skater in the organization right from jump street.

With the Bruins having won the Stanley Cup, don't expect them to move up on Friday. They will likely hold onto the assets they have (9th, 40th, 81st picks in the first three rounds) and add to the organization rather than surrender ones at a premium to try and move up a few spots. The math does not lie: a nice player will drop to the B's at 9- there is no need to move forward unless the cost isn't going to hamstring them. The Bruins have a rare championship winner's opportunity to strengthen their organization with two non-playoff picks in the first two rounds.They'll take advantage of that.

It's all winding down now. Bruins fans aren't yet coming off their euphoria of a Stanley Cup victory, but the team is focused on having a good draft. They're having defenseman Nathan Beaulieu in town for a quick visit on his way to Minnesota. Their list is essentially done- it's decision time.

50 in 30: #12 Nathan Beaulieu

Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John Sea Dogs(QMJHL)
6-2, 180
Born: December 5, 1992 in Strathroy, Ontario
Shoots: Left

Scouting report:

Strengths:Good mobility; wide base/track skater with quick acceleration and the ability to change direction quickly. Solid agility, edge control and footwork make him effective in all zones. Not blazing fast, but has a long stride that allows him to beat the forecheck and carry the puck on his own. Strong passer; sees the ice well and can make all short, intermediate and long-range stretch passes. More of a puck mover than a puck rusher, Beaulieu nevertheless will jump into the play and join the rush. Has a big shot; with accuracy and a low trajectory that makes for a more tippable drive for his forwards in front of the net. Good wrist shot, too- recognizes situations and uses the wrister when time and space isn't there for the big bomb. Scored the winning goal against Mississauga in the opening game of the Memorial Cup tournament by jumping up into the play and cashing in on the doorstep (even though teammate Zack Phillips was offside on the play) Offensive instincts are solid, with vision, recognition and the ability to make decisions under duress. Capable defensive player; rubs guys out along the boards and takes proper angles rather than make the big hit, but always looking to initiate contact and plays a rugged game. Quick stick and exhibits good gap control. An underrated, even nasty fighter; doesn't drop the gloves all that often because most opponents have seen enough from him to give Beaulieu a wide berth. Too valuable to be spending a lot of time in the box, but when riled up, tends to uncork a devastating combination of crosses and haymakers in rapid fashion.

Weaknesses: Got off to a slow start offensively, and scouts said he was trying to do too much. Once he simplified things and relaxed a bit, the production just came naturally. Improvements to his game need to be tweaks to mechanics in his shot (release point and quickness, pivoting to right, etc.). Supremely confident- even a bit cocky sometimes- could stand to dial it down a notch, but according to insiders, a respected kid in the room who puts the team first and has his mates' backs.

Multimedia:

Alex20Wild's YouTube Beaulieu Compilation Video


Nathan Beaulieu combine interview (B2011DW video)


Style compares to: Ryan Suter

Draft prediction: Beaulieu is an interesting case study in the variance of opinions that you often find with the draft. Some public lists have him top-10, while others have him closer to 20. What we know: Beaulieu is a first-round pick, but it will all come down to how NHL clubs see his upside. His 45 points on a formidable team don't lend a great deal to the idea that he'll put up the kind of numbers worthy of being a top-10 pick, but his playoff performance in helping his team capture the Memorial Cup was more in line with what a player of his talents and upside should make happen. We shall see. Seeing him go as high as 9th wouldn't surprise, but if he drops down around or just past 15, it won't come as a major shocker. Some simply aren't sold on him as a high-ender.

Projection: Potential No. 1 or 2 offensive-minded defenseman and power play specialist. Beaulieu can score, defend, hit, fight- the works. He's a smart kid, the son of an accomplished major junior coach. Some are hung up on his lack of elite production given his setting, but we tend to take the longer view that his clutch performance in the playoffs and Memorial Cup is more of an indicator of future success than his relatively pedestrian regular season numbers.

Background: Father, Jacques, was named head coach of the OHL's Sarnia Sting last month after finishing the season as an assistant coach with London. The elder Beaulieu previously served as the head coach of the Saint John Sea Dogs when that team drafted his son, but gave way to Gerard Gallant in 2009-10. Nathan grew up around the London Knights in the early 2000s when his father was an assistant under Dale Hunter- got to know Corey Perry and Rick Nash when the two were starring there. Participated in Team Canada World Jr. Evaluation Camp in Calgary a year ago, playing well. Expected to make the 2012 WJC squad. Does not speak French.

If Beaulieu had his own soundtrack it would be: "Subtle Hustle"- Clutch

Quotable:

"Was so underrated so long by so many people that he's now become overrated. I love everything about him but the hockey sense, and that's a big concern."- NHL Eastern Conference scout to B2011DW; May 26, 2011

"Beaulieu is a solid offensive defenseman with some good size. His overall game has improved this year and when he is playing his best he can control things. Offensively, he is a very good player who will go a little higher than maybe he should because of a lack of high-end 'D' outside the top-10."- NHL Western Conference scout to B2011DW, May 9, 2011

"He's such a smart, character kid. He's exactly the kind of player you want on your team- has some real offensive potential but I keep going back to his character and the fact that he brings his best to any situation."- NHL Eastern Conference scout to B2011DW May 9, 2011

"He'll be an offensive-defenseman … he's a good skater, good puck-mover. He has a good shot and is very poised with the puck. He's a veteran who has a lot of responsibilities for Saint John."- NHL Central Scouting's Chris Bordeleau to NHL.com

The scoop:

Beaulieu's close attention now paying off- NHL.com feature by Mike G. Morreale

Championship Sunday: Saint John Memorial Cup update

To the surprise of no one, the Saint John Sea Dogs are playing for the 2011 MasterCard Memorial Cup championship tonight.

This team went wire-to-wire to ragdoll the competition in the QMJHL, capture the President's Cup in six games over a tough and game but ultimately overmatched Gatineau Olympiques (who have a skilled little Patrice Bergeron clone in Jean-Gabriel Pageau)

The Sea Dogs have been the class of the CHL this season, but they'll have their hands full with Mississauga. Can they go the distance? Unlike with the St. Mike's, the core of the Sea Dogs are 2011 draft kids, headlined by the trio of Jonathan Huberdeau, Nathan Beaulieu and Zack Phillips.

Jacob DeSerres will likely be the x-factor in this game. The former Brandon Wheat King and Flyers prospect came into the Memorial Cup viewed as the weak link on a dominant team, but he's put those fears to rest with a strong performance. He'll have to step up big tonight like he did in the opening match against Missy.

Here's a look at the 2011 draft's key Sea Dogs (We've covered a lot of ground with these guys already, so we'll keep it brief).

Jonathan Huberdeau, LW
We call him J-Money, because that's all Huberdeau's been throughout the playoffs. He did it again in overtime, beating Jordan Binnington to propel his team to the championship game. His 2 goals, 4 points in 3 games are second on the team in scoring to Tomas Jurco. Huberdeau is both a scorer and a playmaker and he can also kill penalties effectively and play a good defensive game. He'll be coveted on draft day- top-three pick we think.
Stock watch: Surging- he's this year's Taylor Hall- his heroics will be fresh on NHL scouts' minds going into the draft process

Tomas Jurco, RW
Jurco kicked off the tournament with a thrilling breakaway and score on J.P. Anderson just moments into the opening contest against Missy. He's been on his game throughout the tourney, scoring highlight reel goals and big ones at that. He has 4 goals and 5 points in three games to lead his team. Skills-wise, Jurco is a clear first-rounder, but his consistency has been the biggest concern, as he tends to go long stretches without doing much. The streakiness coupled with pretty indifferent defensive effort is largely responsible for him dropping out of contention for top-10 consideration but make no mistake- this kid is a heck of a talent. On the right team, he could be deadly.
Stock watch: On the rise- if you're a strong NHL team picking late in the 1st round, wouldn't you love a guy who can dangle like this kid can? You bet you do- warts and all.

Nathan Beaulieu, D
Depending on who you talk to, Beaulieu is either a solid top-10 candidate or closer to 20th overall. It's a strange variance in opinions, and it really gets to the heart of the matter in terms of how interesting the 2011 draft is going to be when everything plays out. He's big, mobile, can fire the puck, play D and run the power play. Some scouts question the hockey sense, but others say it's a strength. Which is it? He's one of the most pure puck movers available in the class. All told, with the tools and upside, we think Beaulieu's wait on draft day won't be a very long one. He has 1-2-3 stats in 3 games at the tournament.
Stock watch: Up; B2011DW predicts top-10 for Beaulieu on draft day- his skill set is simply too coveted, too much in demand for him to drop.


Zack Phillips, RW/C
A shoulder injury against Gatineau has limited this scorer's effectiveness at shooting the puck at the Memorial Cup. He's put up a valiant effort, but he's clearly laboring. It's not going to kill his stock, because NHL teams are well aware of what he can do, but it has effectively limited his upward movement that teammates Huberdeau, Jurco and Beaulieu have taken advantage of. This guy has the size and hockey sense to be a scorer at the next level and it will be interesting to see where he goes in the draft.
Stock watch: Holding steady- a shame about the dinged up shoulder, but he'll have one more chance to shine when the spotlight is brightest.

Ryan Tesink , LW
With a motor that is always revving, this kid is an NHL draft pick in waiting, and it isn't his fault that Central overrated him. Despite having to play on the lower lines, he's managed to make his ice time count with some key goals in the playoffs and a solid performance overall. He's got a ton of weight to add to his 160-pound frame, but he's demonstrated a work ethic and the kind of energy to make a difference at the next level.
Stock watch: Steady as she goes- worth a mid-round pick, but we wouldn't go any earlier than 4th for him

You can see the final match between the Sea Dogs and St. Mike's tonight at 7:00 p.m. on the NHL Network in the U.S.- broadcasting the Rogers Sportsnet feed from Canada.

Championship Sunday: Mississauga Memorial Cup update

Today, a new Memorial Cup champion shall be crowned.

As suspected, the two most successful regular season teams in major junior are squaring off against one another: the QMJHL-winning Saint John Sea Dogs versus the OHL runner-up and host city Mississauga St. Michael's Majors.

Both teams boast deep and potent teams and to be honest, it's toss a coin time. Their meeting to open the tourney nine days ago was a controversial one- the Sea Dogs triumphed by a 4-3 score, but the winning goal by defenseman Nathan Beaulieu occurred on an off-side play.

The St. Mike's have a stifling defense and some legitimate firepower up front. Bruins prospect Marc Cantin is an underrated player who won it all a year ago with Windsor and will bring steady defense today. He weathered the storm of a shaky first game against Saint John to lock it down in helping get his team to this point. Captain Casey Cizikas is a heart-and-soul, versatile forward who is an ace penalty killer and and has a penchant for coming up big in key games. He looks like a future stalwart and possibly captain for the Islanders one day. They also boast two very dangerous scorers in Anaheim Ducks prospect Devante Smith-Pelly and Justin "Shuggernaut" Shugg (h/t to Steve Dangle), who was a steal by the Carolina Hurricanes in last year's draft. Like Cantin, Shugg is a previous Memorial Cup champion, having been on both the 2009 and 2010 Spitfires clubs.

For Bruins fans, there is a nice connection with the St. Mike's, as well. One of Boston's greats and Hall of Famers, goaltender Gerry Cheevers, won the Memorial Cup in 1961 for the St. Michael's Majors when they were based in Toronto. He was supposed to make an appearance in the pre-game festivities a week ago, but was recovering from an emergency heart surgery. It seems apropos that as his old junior club prepares to try and win another Memorial Cup title, while his beloved Boston Bruins hope to win a first Stanley Cup since 1972 when, you guessed it- Cheevers was manning the nets for them.

Here's a look at some key 2011 draft eligibles for the St. Mike's and where they stand going into the big game:

Mississauga

Stuart Percy, D- This steady defender has raised his stock significantly since the OHL playoffs kicked off. A year ago, we were talking to a trusted NHL source about players to watch for 2011 from the OHL and he mentioned Percy's name after having seen him at Team Canada Evaluation Camp (Under-18) for the Eight Nations tourney. He talked about Percy's skills and put him on our radar. He got off to a slow start and wasn't even featured in Central Scouting's preliminary rankings before stabilizing himself at mid-term and then stepping it up a notch to close out the season. Since the games really mattered, Percy brought his game up to a higher level, demonstrating an offensive element that hadn't really been evident during the season when he was further down the depth chart on a successful team loaded with veterans. In the Memorial Cup semifinal game against Kootenay, he made a perfect pass to Smith-Pelly for a one-timer to get the St. Mike's on the board early. Percy's hockey sense and instincts are the best aspects of his game- he understands where he needs to be on the ice and uses an active stick and rapid reads to effectively defend his zone. He's not going to be a big point producer at the next level, but with his good wheels and passing ability, he can move the puck effectively to be one of those accomplished all-around guys you win with. You aren't going to get all this excited about what you see in Percy, and he's going to take some time to get there, but he has the look of a winner.
Stock watch: On the rise- NHL clubs knew he was skilled, but he's backing it up with production- 4 assists in 4 games- good for 11th in scoring.

Joe Cramarossa, C
Late-1992 birthdate has faced the same challenges Percy has in terms of earning enough ice time to make a big impression on scouts. He's a solid guy with a good feel for the game. He doesn't look like much of a bet for a top-six forward role in the NHL but could do it as a defensive guy and penalty killer. He's got good size, but needs to put in the work to develop his body and functional strength. He anticipates well and that ability to read the play helps him a lot when killing penalties. Cramarossa could be one of those mid-to-later picks who pans out because his role hasn't allowed NHL teams to get a real read on him. Even if the offensive aspect of his game never develops, he has the look of a solid NHL role player in time.
Stock watch: Holding steady- not fancy, just tough.

Dylan DeMelo, D
The most adversely affected of all three 2011 draft candidates on the veteran-heavy St. Mike's. Hasn't been all that noticeable because of the lack of ice time, but in his case, that's probably a good thing. Good size at 6-1 and about 190 pounds. He moves well and shows the kind of effort and desire that you want to see from a young, developing player. He knows that he has to make every shift count to earn coach Dave Cameron's trust and to DeMelo's credit, he doesn't seem to let that kind of pressure affect his performance on the ice if it is in fact something that weighs heavily on him. You can tell that DeMelo has the kind of puck skills that could translate into a PMD role eventually, but that's not his role on this club- his time will have to come later. Translation: An NHL team willing to invest a draft pick on this project could be rewarded on the long-term plan.
Stock watch: Worth a late-round flyer.

NHL scout weighs in on key 2011 draft prospects

We had an interesting exchange the other day with an NHL scout who gave us an unvarnished look at some of the top players available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

This particular scout is a veteran and has been around a long time and knows what he's talking about when it comes to evaluating prospects. His experience has always made him a valuable resource, and he was kind enough to share some detailed views.

What immediately springs to mind with some of these observations is how they fly in the face of the some of the established reports on players that have become a given over the course of the 2010-11 hockey season. While some may look at these notes and disagree, remember that it's an opinion backed up by multiple viewings and years of doing this.

We can't always be right about every player all the time. However, it does provide very good food for thought and a reminder that this draft year, more than others in recent memory, could get pretty interesting on June 24, with certain players not thought of as high picks jumping up to come off the board early, while other taken-for-granted favorites slipping a bit. Or, it could play out exactly as many of us believe. (Yeah, right)

Whether you agree with the assessments or not, this is typical of the kind of debate and discussion you might hear in an NHL war room if you were a fly on the wall as they deliberate their final rankings.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL) -" I like him plenty, but I have nagging doubts. Why do I feel like I'm watching the next Jamie Lundmark? That lackluster track record of Western League dynamic offensive whiz kids is always in the back of my mind. He seems to me like a guy with a high floor, but I would have said that about Gilbert Brule also."

Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara (OHL) - "Why is this guy not getting any mention as a possibility in the top 3 or 4 picks overall? I think he's a Tyler Myers or Alex Pietrangelo. I can't find anything about his game that will keep him from being a good top pairing d-man."

Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL) - "A greater than the sum of his parts player - the opposite of the sort of guy scouts usually love (those 6-5, raw, toolsy guys who we let the imagination run wild on). There's nothing to imagine with on this guy - he's smallish, only an average skater, far from dynamic, but all he does is get on the scoresheet and help his team win games. His improvement on the defensive and penalty killing side really opened my eyes, he could end up being a pretty complete guy even if he only ends up being a 10-15 goal guy in the NHL."

Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John (QMJHL)- "Was so underrated so long by so many people that he's now become overrated. I love everything about him but the hockey sense, and that's a big concern."

(EDIT- Going to reincorporate some of the quotes on other players in the top-30 list coming soon)

Memorial Cup update: Saint John-Mississauga open tourney, Goalie notes

We have had a chance to look at the first three games of the 2011 MasterCard Memorial Cup since the tourney opened Friday night with a barnburner of an opening contest between Saint John and host Mississauga.

The St. Mike's were wearing commemorative sweaters in honor of trooper Marc Diab, a Mississauga resident who was born in Lebanon but moved to Canada when he was a teen. He was killed in action in Afghanistan in March 2009 while serving with the Canadian military. The beautiful game jerseys will be auctioned off for charity after the Memorial Cup concludes.

Two of Saint John's biggest draft stars came through Friday- Jonathan Huberdeau and Nathan Beaulieu. Huberdeau scored a goal when Michael Kirkpatrick put a shot into the net off No. 11's thigh. Not the prettiest goal, but the Dogs will take. Beaulieu scored the game-winner on a controversial play where Zack Phillips was clearly off-side on the play. A shame, because it tainted a very nice play where Beaulieu swooped in to deposit a rebound past a helpless J.P. Anderson. Teams on the lookout for that offensive defenseman have to be putting some serious consideration into Beaulieu, whose production since the second half of the season and playoffs has been outstanding.

Owen Sound thrashed Kootenay on Saturday night to the tune of a 5-0 pasting that saw Jordan Binnington continue his red-hot play since Game 6 of the OHL championship series. Binnington was aggressive, out challenging shooters all night and doing a nice job of controlling rebounds and blockering them away from the front of his net. He showed the same kind of composure and patience that he did late in the Robertson Cup round against Missy, not overcommitting to shots and staying square to the shooter. He's a completely different guy from the shaky, overactive guy we saw against London in the first round way back in late March. He posted 29 saves in the whitewash to get off to a great start.

OHL MVP Robby Mignardi scored a pair of goals including a shortie, while Andrew Fritsch tallied on the power play in the third period.

Nathan Lieuwen did not play all that well. He looked off-balance all night and was playing very deep in his net, which didn't give him much of a margin for error. He can make highlight reel saves at times because of his enormous size and athleticism, but he's still a rough-around-the-edges work in progress in terms of his reads and decision-making. He seemed slow to react and anticipate where the backside pressure was coming from on several goals, caught looking the other way as Owen Sound moved the puck on him at will.

He was better in a 2-1 loss to Mississauga Sunday night, but still scrambles too much for our liking. With his excellent size, less should be more for him. He needs to work on his lateral crease movement and staying square to the shooter a little better. Lieuwen has the size to scramble and still make desperation saves because he's so big and long-limbed, but it's not the preferred method. In the two games of Memorial Cup action so far, mechanics have been his undoing. He's playing with fire by playing so deep in the net. Needs to be more confident in his angles by coming out to cut them down and challenge the shooter/force them to put the puck into his sizeable mass.

We love the raw tools in Lieuwen, but he's getting exposed a bit so far- needs to tighten it up and do the little things to get back to the level he was at in the WHL playoffs.

Memorial Cup Preview #4: Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

They were the most dominant team in major junior hockey this season and then the Saint John Sea Dogs essentially ragdolled the Quebec League competition en route to the 2011 President's Cup trophy.

Now, the most prolific and draft-heavy/deep team in the CHL is in Mississauga looking to capture the MasterCard Memorial Cup as an encore.

Former Detroit Red Wing Gerard Gallant is the coach, and has his team firing on all cylinders. They're talented, scrappy and opportunistic- much like he was when he skated with Stevie Y back in the day before the Wings became synonymous with the word elite. He had 211 goals in 615 NHL games with Detroit and Tampa Bay after being a sixth-round pick out of Sherbrooke in 1981. He replaced defenseman Nathan Beaulieu's dad, Jacques (now at Sarnia), behind the bench.

Overage Flyers prospect and goalie Jacob DeSerres is considered the weak link, but he was excellent in the playoffs and is playing in his second consecutive Memorial Cup after being a member of the host Brandon Wheat Kings a year ago. He stood tall in Game 6 against Gatineau, not allowing the Olympiques to get a goal and take the momentum and series back to Saint John for Game 7. Some weak link!

Of course, where it's at for Saint John is up front and on D- they have a killer balance of veteran depth and useful high-end talent.

Jonathan Huberdeau headlines the club and could be a top-three pick in June. He and Zack Phillips (38 goals) have been the "Line of Death" (to steal a term once coined by Libyan madman Muhammar Gaddafi) for Saint John this season. Phillips injured his shoulder in Game 4 and his status is uncertain. He's a potentially big loss if he can't go, but we suspect that he'll make an appearance at some point. How effective he'll be is another story. Stay tuned.

Don't forget about the puck wizard Tomas Jurco as a potential fourth possible first-round pick from this team (though B2011DW believes he will slide to early 2nd- very good value there).

There is also some real skill and production from veterans Mike Kirkpatrick, Stanislav Galiev (Capitals), Steven Anthony (Canucks) Stephen Macaulay (Blues) and Alexandre Beauregard (who scored his only goal of the playoffs in double OT to clinch the QMJHL championship).

On defense, Nathan Beaulieu is a top draft candidate. He's joined by veterans Simon Despres (Penguins) and Eric Gelinas (Devils).

For depth, Ryan Tesink, Scott Oke and (recently hospitalized and released for a bruised kidney) Jason Cameron are all ranked by Central Scouting. And they barely play compared to the other guys. Cameron is out- will not play in the Memorial Cup.

This team has it all, and is built for a short tourney like this one. DeSerres is the x-factor, but he doesn't have to carry this club- just be solid. He can handle it. After smoking everyone in rounds 1-3, he got a test in the championship round, but proved he can make the big save when needed.

We predict that the Sea Dogs will win it all, even though this tournament field has some serious matchups, especially against the host city Majors. Both are tremendous, but we like the Sea Dogs a little more because they are a well-oiled machine that is getting top performances from its best players.

We won't have to wait long to find out, though- Saint John-Missy is the opening game of the round robin on Friday.

Time to drop the puck.

Sea Dogs 2011 Draft Eligibles

Jonathan Huberdeau, C/LW
Born: June 4, 1993 in St-Jerome, Quebec
6-1, 175 Shoots: Left
Can you believe this kid isn't even 18 yet? Unreal playoff performance from one of 2011 draft's biggest risers- 16 goals, 30 points in 19 games and he's one of the younger guys on the team. It's safe to say that Saint John's leading scorer in the regular season (105 points) has established himself as a legitimate top-five option for the NHL draft next month, and we think he could go as high as 1st. Yes, you read that right- if anyone is going to unseat Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at the top of the board on June 24, it won't be Adam Larsson, but Huberdeau who does it. How is that for being bold? He tallied an overtime goal against Victoriaville but perhaps even more impressive was his tying goal against Gatineau in Game 6 with just 23 ticks left on the clock. The calm with which he collected a Galiev rebound and tucked it home with just a slight shift and flick of the wrist was one of the more sublime hockey plays we've seen in a long time. Anytime a player is scoring a goal per game as Huberdeau has done, he's going to be a hot commodity among NHL teams. We wouldn't be at surprised to see Huberdeau go third overall to Florida, but cannot envision that he will drop out of the top-five under any circumstance. He has all the natural size (though he's skinny and needs to get stronger), talent and a gamer's mentality you want in a stud forward. We love the way Huberdeau carries himself on and off the ice, and he's done precisely what B2011DW predicted for him back before the playoffs started: he's taken on a Taylor Hall-like scoring role on a deep playoff run. His heroics will be fresh in the minds of the scouts for teams in the top-three when they sit down for their final meetings to hash out their lists.
Upside: No. 1 center, leader and fan favorite for the team who drafts him.

Zack Phillips, Center
October 28, 1992 in Fredericton, New Brunswick
6-1, 195 Shoots: Right
Banged up his shoulder in the QMJHL championship series- if he misses Memorial Cup it will hurt him a bit mostly due to being out of sight, out of mind while linemate Huberdeau has stepped it up to another level. A bit of a surprise to the general public when he appeared ninth overall on The Hockey News' 2011 Draft Preview which was released last week in Canada. However, some scouts are telling us that Phillips in the top-10 isn't much of a shocker to them given his big goal scoring potential and a natural nose for the net that players like Jeff Skinner have forced NHL teams to respect. Phillips is not an explosive player, and he's certainly benefited from skating alongside playmakers like Huberdeau and Michael Kirkpatrick this season, but to insinuate that he's not a lethal scoring threat is to sell the former Massachusetts prep player short. The former Lawrence Academy standout (19 goals, 48 points in 30 games) from Fredericton, NB was involved in a car accident that killed teammate Mark Frattaroli in September 2008 (Frattaroli was driving when the vehicle struck a tree). Zack is an October 1992 birthdate, so he's on the older scale of the 2011 class, but he had a tremendous season with 38 goals and 95 points. At 6-1, 195 pounds, he can drive hard to the net and has outstanding hands to finish off plays in close.
Upside: First- or second-line winger and power play ace

Nathan Beaulieu, D
Born: December 5, 1992 in Strathroy, Ontario
6-3, 191 Shoots: Left
Opinions on this defenseman are split, but when talking about players with a high ceiling and the ubiquitous scouting term "upside" this Ontario and New Brunswick-raised defender has it. Although not as big as Dougie Hamilton, Beaulieu nonetheless plays big and brings a physical edge to his game with the ability to fight if provoked. In 19 games, he's tallied four goals and 17 points. Beaulieu is a fine skater and works very effectively on the point. His real strength is in the way he can both move and rush the puck. He sees the ice beautifully and can make any pass. Central had him fifth overall in their final rankings, but THN only had him 18th. He got off to a slow start this season offensively, and he could be a case of a pick-your-flavor player in terms of some NHL teams liking him a lot more than others.
Upside: Lower-end No. 1/capable No. 2 who can play on both special teams units and brings character and hard-nosed play to mix.

Tomas Jurco, RW
December 28, 1992 in Kosice, Slovakia
6-2, 195 Shoots: Left
You Tube star and Slovak winger scored 30 goals this season and has tallied six more in his club's 19 postseason games, posting 18 points, but didn't score in last six postseason games. His uneven production is why Jurco's stock has slipped a bit this season after huge expectations generated from last season and Saint John's run (and loss to Moncton) in the QMJHL finals. As far as slick, puck possession forwards with dynamic moves go, he is at the top of the 2011 class. We also liked his performance at the 2011 WJC and did not understand why his coach shorted him on ice time, especially on the power play. Yes, Jurco is a bit one-dimensional at this stage, but comes off like an affable kid who is willing to work on it and who wants to be a player. He's been overshadowed by Huberdeau and Phillips this year after being expected to vie for a top-10 draft selection, but Jurco is still a dangerous offensive player with the tools to be an impact scorer in the NHL one day.
Upside: Top-six forward or bust. Probably does not have the overall two-way acumen to stick in anything less than a scorer's role, but could develop that aspect if he wants to play in the NHL badly enough. Otherwise, he'll be an Extraliga star.

Scott Oke LW
Born March 16, 1993 in St-Lambert, Quebec
6-3, 190 Shoots; Left
You're telling us a guy with five goals in a season is projected on Central's second-round final list? How do you spell overrated? At the same time, this winger has nice size, and can skate well, but he's not had a lot of ice time given how talented his club is. His production barely registered on the radar given how high Central had him, and his playoff scoring totals reflect his reduced role on the club: 18 games, 1-5-6, with just one assist in the last six games. With Oke, it's all about what he *could* become and his physical traits are admittedly intriguing, but he simply hasn't done enough to justify where they have him. And we believe his ultimate draft spot will reflect where NHL clubs more realistically have him.
Upside: Hard to gauge right now given lack of playing time, but shouldn't be judged on anything more than a 3rd/4th liner until he proves otherwise.

Ryan Tesink, LW
Born: May 21, 1993 in Saint John, New Brunswick
6-0, 161 Shoots: Left
We like Tesink better than Oke, but he's still ranked too prominently by Central given his lack of numbers, and this kid has some major filling out to do. Hometown Dog has some skill and the instincts to play the game at the next level, but he doesn't have a lot of size or the frame to add the kind of weight and strength you want in a player, so he'll have his work cut out for him. In 19 games, Tesink has three goals and five points, but one of them was a huge overtime winner against Gatineau. He's got some interesting potential so long as he can get a lot stronger and continue to develop, but risky pick if Tesink taken too early.
Upside: See Oke; tough to predict, but has at least shown more offensive hockey sense and production.

Other draft eligibles: C/RW Dannick Gauthier (1991), C Jason Cameron, LW Aidan Kelly (1993)

Michael Kirkpatrick: undrafted free agent; attended Dallas Stars prospect/development camp on invite.

For more on the Sea Dogs, Jamie Tozer's Station Nation blog is a must-read!

Last man in: Saint John Sea Dogs clinch QMJHL title in double OT

With the Saint John Sea Dogs trailing 2-1 late in Game 6 of the QMJHL championship series on the road against the Gatineau Olympiques, a potential Game 7 staring them in the face tomorrow (and after Mississauga blew their OHL championship lead to Owen Sound not a nice thought), they looked to their go-to guy.

And Jonathan Huberdeau came through.

Standing just off to Gatineau goaltender Max Clermont's left (and Clermont was absolutely brilliant this series), Huberdau calmly collected a rebound of a Stanislav Galiev shot and slipped it into the net at 19:37 of the final frame to send the game to overtime.

For Huberdeau, it was just one more defining moment for the electrifying forward for whom a top-five pick seems a fait accompli, and he could go as high as third overall, even.

It was Huberdeau's 16th goal and 30th point in 19 games for a team that crushed the competition in the regular season and steamrolled their way to the President's Cup series only to find a fiery, tenacious opponent in Gatineau.

Thanks to the outstanding play of Clermont, who found himself under siege (he took 55 shots tonight, stopping 52 of them), and thanks to the emergence of little center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who is a highly gifted offensive player we didn't give enough credit to for his skating (can you say serpentine- the kid is a waterbug- cannot catch him) the Olympiques gave the Sea Dogs everything they could handle. Pageau finished with 14 goals and 29 points in 24 games- a real nice performance for a guy we weren't really tracking until recently. Kid's got game and will be interesting to see how much of a boost his playoff performance gives him after a solid 79-point campaign.

In the end however, it was too much. Alexandre Beauregard buried a shot at 15:45 of the second overtime session after the puck hit Gatineau defenseman David Weckworth's skate and bounced right to him. He wound up and drilled a shot that beat Clermont cleanly for the winner. Ironically, it was Beauregard's only goal of the playoffs. Talk about a crowning achievement!

NHL Draft Video has the game highlights here. In French of course, compliments of RDS.

In the end, Saint John was too skilled, too deep, too powerful. It almost wasn't fair. Their netminder is none other than Jacob DeSerres. You might remember him- he was playing for the Brandon Wheat Kings in last year's Memorial Cup. He gets to go back and try to close the deal now. However, DeSerres is so experienced that he's the perfect netminder for this talent-laden team.

Saint John didn't have injured star forward Zack Phillips, lost with a shoulder injury during the series. But it didn't matter, because all year, they've been able to bring talented guys into the lineup.

And did we mention that they won every single game on the road this playoffs to set a QMJHL record? Uh. Huh. This team deserved the big enchilada.

Nathan Beaulieu was solid, finishing the playoffs with four goals and 17 points in 19 games. He was a +2 in this match. Here's a picture his teammate Galiev tweeted after the game. Good stuff- Beaulieu is on the right. Between this huge win and his dad being named head coach of the Sarnia Sting this week, that family is living the dream right now.

Tomas Jurco was flashy at times, but didn't do much in this one. Finished the playoffs with a solid six goals and 18 points in 19 games. He's dangerous and can really score. He needs to work on not trying to beat the whole team all by himself and use his teammates more, but Jurco is getting there.

But we keep going back to Huberdeau- the straw that stirs the drink for this team. 105 points in the regular season, 30 more in the playoffs, including the clutch-as-clutch-can-be 1-1-2 line in the clinching game.

We said when the playoffs started that a long run and strong performance gave Huberdeau a chance to be this year's Taylor Hall if he was up for the challenge. Well folks, he answered that question and then some.

The Saint John Sea Dogs are going to Mississauga.

And the 2011 MasterCard Memorial Cup will be all the better for it.

B2011DW will be back this week with a Memorial Cup preview in which we will post capsules on each team with scouting reports on the key draft eligibles. If you're going to Mississauga, we urge you to print them out and have them on hand. If not, you can still print them out as the games will be televised in the U.S. and in Canada- check your local listings.

Game on!

Why Joe Morrow is going to surprise at NHL draft

Skilled puck moving defensemen are more in demand than ever, which is an interesting paradigm shift, because at one time, huge, nasty defenders were coveted during the clutch-and-grab era of the NHL given their ability to neutralize smaller offensive players.

These days, it's all about the mobile passers who can stretch defenses and start the quick attack from their own end. The best NHL teams have a fast and fluid transition game. Those who don't have that kind of dynamic in their blue line corps have to rely on their forwards to do more individual work to beat opposing defenses.

One such player who is not generally ranked as a solid first-round selection is Portland Winterhawk Joe Morrow.

The 34th-ranked player in the THN Draft Preview, Red Line had Morrow 36th in their April issue. The way we hear it, though, Morrow could very well be picked inside the top-20. Why? Well, at 6-1, 200 pounds, he's got size and natural strength. His skating improved considerably from where it was a year ago, as did his footwork, and Morrow has gotten much more involved in jumping up into the play than he did previously.

With good vision and the right touch on the puck, he's a pretty strong all-around package in that he's not a high-end puck-mover nor is he a dominant defenseman, but is a nice blend between both.

We talked to one NHL scout out west who lamented the fact that the cat is out of the bag on Morrow. "I saw him last year and was hoping he might be a guy we could steal later on, but I don't see it after the season he had," the scout said. "When you break it down, his skill level probably isn't quite what it should be if you're taking a guy in the first 15 to 20 picks, but in the bigger picture of what he brings to a team, I think he'll go there."

Morrow has a big booming shot, but the scout said that the Albertan sometimes falls a little too in love with his point drive and needs to get quicker at getting it off and work on switching things up. "He tends to get a little static or stationary at times," the scout said. "And with that big windup, the guys who are willing to get in front of it have the time to react and get into the shooting lane. It is a real cannon, though. When he gets it on net, it's heavy and hard to stop."


Central Scouting is on the right track; they ranked Morrow 12th in their final list, which was up four spots from his mid-term ranking of 16. That places him squarely in the middle of the first round.

But, if all of Adam Larsson, Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Murphy and Nathan Beaulieu are off the board in the first 10-11 picks, where does that leave Morrow?

"I like him better than Duncan Siemens to be honest," the scout said. "Siemens gets a lot of his points from secondary assists and skating with Stef Elliott. I don't see the same kind of vision or creativity from him that I do from Morrow. I know this will come as a surprise to a lot of people, but I think Siemens is overrated when people are talking top-10 for him. He's going to be a solid middle-pairing guy, but if you want real upside from the defense position, I have Morrow ranked a little higher. Yes, he plays on a good team in Portland as well, but Morrow starts the breakout and is pretty good with puck distribution."

It may entirely come down to a pick your flavor proposition between Siemens and Morrow on June 24, but at B2011DW, we wouldn't at all be surprised to see the two go within just a few picks within one another.

Another thing working in Morrow's favor is the deep run his Winterhawks team made this spring. Siemens on the other hand, got bounced in the second round and by several accounts, did not acquit himself very well.

"Siemens got exposed a bit both in the win over Prince Albert, but especially against Kootenay," said an NHL director of amateur scouting recently. "When his team needed him to step up his game, he made a lot of mistakes and didn't look settled the way he did in the regular season. That isn't going to crush him at the draft, but it is something teams are going to talk about."

Morrow's team is in the WHL championship and down 2 games to 1 to the Kootenay Ice. Morrow's production has been outstanding in the postseason, with six goals and 18 points in 19 games. That kind of impression will be fresh in teams' minds when they get together to hammer out their rankings.

"I think you'll see a run on defensemen who have that all-important puck moving skill," said another NHL scout from the Eastern Conference recently. "Teams who wait too long to grab one find themselves shut out on draft day. A kid like Morrow is probably going to hear his name called sooner than most people think because of that reason."

In any case, it makes for an interesting plot line to watch for in Minnesota.

Good two months for Beaulieu clan

On May 10th the Sarnia Sting announced the hiring of London assistant coach Jacques Beaulieu. He played major junior hockey for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds back in the 80s and most recently coached the Saint John Sea Dogs before being let go in 2008 and returning to London.

Next month, his son, Nathan will be a first-round pick in the June 24 NHL Entry Draft and possibly even a top-10 selection.

"(Beaulieu) has the chance to be a special player," said one NHL amateur scouting director B2011DW spoke to recently. "He has excellent hockey sense, can really move the puck and has character. You can't say enough about this kid and where he comes from. I know his dad well, and he comes from an excellent hockey family."

Nathan Beaulieu was most recently featured on this blog as we made a case for him being a potential Boston Bruins selection at the ninth overall spot in Minnesota.

Regardless of where he ends up, his father joining an exciting young team that boasts two potential top-five picks in 2012 in Nail Yakupov and Alex Galchenyuk, not to mention intriguing power forward Brett Ritchie, a solid second-rounder and even maybe late first-rounder in 2011, makes this a pretty special time for the entire Beaulieu family.


Here's a link some nice video on Sarnia's new coach and Nathan's pop courtesy of the outstanding Station Nation blog

Bruins 2011 Draft: The Case for Nathan Beaulieu

Welcome to the sixth and final post in the series where Bruins 2011 Draft Watch focuses on the details of a specific player we see as worthy of gaining the attention of Boston fans given where the team is picking with the ninth overall selection.

We started in December with a focus piece on Gabriel Landeskog, then posted one profile per month on Dougie Hamilton, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy and in late April, published Mika Zibanejad. The series has been fun, but the show must go on. This month, B2011DW will begin to post our top-50, and those rankings will count down, taking us all the way to the NHL draft next month.


Dateline: X-Cel Energy Center, St. Paul, Minnesota June 24, 2011

Picking ninth overall in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft isn't ideal, but the Boston Bruins will take it. One NHL amateur scouting director once said that the earlier you pick, the less other teams get to determine your draft fate for you. However, because Toronto surged in February and March, the B's find themselves having to take what is available to them. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier, Ryan Strome, Dougie Hamilton and Ryan Murphy have all had their names called, the so-called 'Elite 8" has unfolded as anticipated, and Boston will have to look to the next tier to choose from.

When NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman announces to the rest of the building that the Boston Bruins are now on the clock with the ninth overall selection in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, the team deliberates at its table right up until the point that time about expires,

The Bruins have some intriguing players to choose from, but in looking at it from a needs perspective, no position needs more addressing than at defense. More specifically, the Bruins lack a higher-end offensive defenseman and puck mover. They have no shortage of solid prospects who project as middle and bottom pairing guys, but lack a single defender with the upside of a No. 1 or 2 at the NHL level.

While there are still several defensemen available such as the huge and mobile Jamie Oleksiak from Northeastern in the Bruins' backyard, or Saskatoon standout Duncan Siemens, Boston has their eyes on a Maritimer.

Boston Bruins organizational team and front office walk to the stage from their table, holding a Boston Bruins jersey with the digits "11" stitched onto on the back and sleeves. General Manager Peter Chiarelli takes the stage and walks to the podium to announce the pick.

After the initial pleasantries of thanking the city of Minneapolis/St. Paul and host Minnesota Wild, Chiarelli gets down to business.

"With the ninth pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, the Boston Bruins select, from the Saint John Sea Dogs of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League...defenseman Nathan Beaulieu."

Nathan Beaulieu, Defense Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL)

Vitals:

Height: 6-2 Weight: 180 Shoots: Left
Born: December 5, 1992 in Strathroy, Ontrario
(QMJHL vitals: 6-3, 191)

2010-11 Saint John (QMJHL) GP: 65 G: 12 A: 33 PTS: 45 PIM: 44
Playoffs: GP: 15 G: 3 A: 12 PTS: 15 PIM: 24

Bio:
Born in Ontario; his father, Jacques, was head coach of Saint John (when the Sea Dogs drafted his son) before being replaced by Gerard Gallant. He is now an assistant coach with the London Knights of the OHL, in his second stint with the team (2002-06). Beaulieu spent a lot of his time growing up in the Maritimes and around London, Ontario. Was a rink rat with the Knights from about age 9-13 and got to know NHL All-Stars Rick Nash and (MVP candidate) Corey Perry when the latter was a star forward on the team. Participated in Team Canada's National Junior Team development camp last August, making a real impression on the scouts in attendance, even if he wasn't able to crack the WJC roster.

Strengths: Good mobility; wide base/track skater with quick acceleration and the ability to change direction quickly. Solid agility, edge control and footwork make him effective in all zones. Not blazing fast, but has a long stride that allows him to beat the forecheck and carry the puck on his own. Strong passer; sees the ice well and can make all short, intermediate and long-range stretch passes. More of a puck mover than a puck rusher, Beaulieu nevertheless will jump into the play and join the rush. Has a big shot; with accuracy and a low trajectory that makes for a more tippable drive for his forwards in front of the net. Good wrist shot, too- recognizes situations and uses the wrister when time and space isn't there for the big bomb. Offensive instincts are solid, with vision, recognition and the ability to make decisions under duress. Capable defensive player; rubs guys out along the boards and takes proper angles rather than make the big hit, but always looking to initiate contact and plays a rugged game. Quick stick and exhibits good gap control. An underrated, even nasty fighter; doesn't drop the gloves all that often because most opponents have seen enough from him to give Beaulieu a wide berth. Too valuable to be spending a lot of time in the box, but when riled up, tends to uncork a devastating combination of crosses and haymakers in rapid fashion. Most would rather let sleeping dogs lie when it comes to trying to intimidate Beaulieu.

Here are some links to video of Beaulieu for evidence:

Jérôme Bérubé brings us a Nathan Beaulieu compilation video via alex20wild on his NHL Draft Video blog

Here's Jérôme's archive of Beaulieu videos on his blog for your reference.

Weaknesses: Got off to a slow start offensively, and scouts said he was trying to do too much. Once he simplified things and relaxed a bit, the production just came naturally. Improvements to his game need to be tweaks to mechanics in his shot (release point and quickness, pivoting to right, etc.). Supremely confident- even a bit cocky sometimes- could stand to dial it down a notch, but according to insiders, a respected kid in the room who puts the team first and has his mates' backs.

Style Compares to: Ryan Suter, Mike Green (NHL scout)

Why the Bruins would pick Beaulieu: Central Scouting has Beaulieu fifth overall in their North American final rankings, and if anything, he's raised his stock since the playoffs began. If the B's concur with that assessment, then he's solid value for them at the ninth spot. The B's do not have any players in their system who can do what he's capable of, and a bonus for the 18-year-old is the fact that he plays a blue collar-type of game to go with his solid skill set. He's comparable to Tomas Kaberle, but plays with the kind of edge that Kaberle will never possess (and what will keep him from ever being fully embraced in Boston even if the team re-signs him in the off-season). If the B's take Beaulieu, you're looking at a future PP quarterback and potential top pairing defender if he reaches his expectations.

Why the Bruins would not pick Beaulieu: His rankings are all over the map (THN had him 18th in their draft preview issue, while Red Line Report has yet to see him crack the top-30- 32nd in April bulletin), and given his disappointing production this season, he might be overrated in some circles. Particularly troubling is the lack of high-end production on the CHL's most dominant team, a prolific scoring machine if ever there was one. Although Beaulieu came on late in the season and has picked it up in the playoffs, his first few months was pretty mediocre, and he might just be a middle tier defenseman at the NHL level, especially on a club expecting him to carry the mail as a No. 1 or 2.

What scouts/coaches are saying:

"Beaulieu is a solid offensive defenseman with some good size. His overall game has improved this year and when he is playing his best he can control things. Offensively, he is a very good player who will go a little higher than maybe he should because of a lack of high-end 'D' outside the top-10."- NHL Western Conference scout to B2011DW, May 9, 2011

'He's such a smart, character kid. He's exactly the kind of player you want on your team- has some real offensive potential but I keep going back to his character and the fact that he brings his best to any situation."- NHL Eastern Conference scout to B2011DW May 9, 2011

"He'll be an offensive-defenseman … he's a good skater, good puck-mover. He has a good shot and is very poised with the puck. He's a veteran who has a lot of responsibilities for Saint John."- NHL Central Scouting's Chris Bordeleau to NHL.com

""He's gotten better, bigger and stronger, he’s playing a lot better defensively but he's pressing for his points. He's a guy who gets a lot of opportunities because he jumps into the rush very well."- Saint John coach Gerard Gallant to NHL.com

"...Generally solid in defensive zone coverage with good awareness around the net. Not as punishing as you'd like in the corners or in front of net. Has a long, smooth stride with a wide base and good balance and accelerates well with the puck on his blade. Can break the trap with long stretch passes through the neutral zone. For all his good footwork, he only pivots well to his left- can't pivot to his right."- Red Line Report, December 2010

Nathan Beaulieu, D- Opinions on this defenseman are split, but when talking about players with a high ceiling and the ubiquitous scouting term "upside" this New Brunswick native has it. Although not as big as Dougie Hamilton, Beaulieu nonetheless plays big and brings a physical edge to his game with the ability to fight if provoked. In 13 games, he's tallied three goals and 14 points. Beaulieu is a fine skater and works very effectively on the point. His father, Jacques, used to be the Saint John head coach and is currently an assistant for Dale Hunter with the London Knights, so Beaulieu has grown up around high-level hockey and has had good coaching. Central had him fifth overall in their final rankings, but THN only had him 18th. He got off to a slow start this season offensively, and he could be a case of a pick-your-flavor player in terms of some NHL teams liking him a lot more than others.
Prediction: This one's tougher; internet chatter makes Beaulieu a candidate for top-10 selection in June, and he could get there, but we've heard enough lukewarm opinions on him from NHL sources which could mean he's closer 15-20 than 9 or 10. Solid first-rounder, but his ranking is all over the map.- B2011DW, May 2, 2011

Beaulieu in his own words:

“If you’ve seen me play, one of the things I’ve got to get better at is my own end. I’m going to work on everything this summer. Shooting, skating. Playing defence, you always have to get stronger.”- Beaulieu to London Free Press, May 21, 2010

"I'm not afraid to do it and I don't mind protecting my teammates. I'm not afraid to fight but it's not part of my game. I don't need to go out there and fight every night." Beaulieu to NHL.com, December 10, 2010 (Mike G. Morreale)

Bust factor: Moderate; Beaulieu has the look of an NHL player, but if he is picked in the top-10, then anything less than No. 1 or 2 billing in the big league is going to be a step down. His skill is there for all to see, but he doesn't have the production to back it up. At the same time, he's a smart, hard-working guy who grew up around the game and has had some very good role models, starting with his dad.

The Verdict: While Beaulieu doesn't have the size of a guy like Dougie Hamilton or Jamie Oleksiak, nor the dynamic upside of a Ryan Murphy, or the sheer physical nastiness of Duncan Siemens, he brings elements of all those guys into a neat package. If the Bruins were to spend the ninth pick on him, it would present a bit of a risk in that he played on a top team and wasn't able to improve his numbers from a year ago. At the same time, he was better defensively, and has been a point-per-game player in the postseason. He was an impressive cat at the WJC evaluation camp and could make the 2012 roster which will play on home soil in Calgary. This is a player who has plenty of talent and skills you like to see in a high-end prospect: he's one of the best pure puck movers in the entire draft class and plays with the kind of poise and intelligence you like to see. What is going to make or break Beaulieu landing in the top-10 is whether a team picking there sees him possessing a high ceiling, bigger than what he's done to date in junior. He's one of the more well-rounded players in the draft and is worthy of a gamble because even if he doesn't meet his projections, Beaulieu looks like he'll at least contribute. When you're a team like the Bruins, getting a top PMD is a priority, even if said player is likely a few years away from being ready to make an impact. Remember, this is gravy time for Boston- they've reached the conference finals for the first time in nearly two decades, so adding a player like Nathan Beaulieu is the proverbial icing on the cake, and exposing him to guys like Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg would likely make him an even better player.

NHL Draft Video link: The Ecstasy of Gold

Our friend Jerome B. over at NHL Draft Video blog has a sweet highlight film of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft's top players posted on You Tube.

You can watch the video here.

He does a nice job using Metallica's version of the Ennio Morricone classic track from "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly" soundtrack. It's the perfect music to set to some of these majestic hockey plays.

Nice job, Jerome and merci for all the great videos you've posted on your blog all season.

QMJHL playoffs update: Saint John Sea Dogs

Not surprisingly, the Saint John Sea Dogs await the winner of the Gatineau-Quebec playoff series to determine which team will capture the league's President's Cup trophy and represent the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League in the 2011 Master Card Memorial Cup in Mississauga, Ontario.

The Sea Dogs had an amazing regular season, establishing themselves as the top team in the CHL with a 58-7-1-2 record.

Since the playoffs started, Saint John has steamrolled opponents, sweeping Cape Breton, beating Victoriaville by a 4-1 series score and then sweeping the Lewiston MAINE-iacs. IN 12 games, they've outscored their opponents by a 66-27 margin.

This team has an embarrassment of riches for the 2011 draft class, so here's a look at them and what they are doing in the 2011 postseason, with the draft seven weeks away.

Jonathan Huberdeau, C/W- It's safe to say that Saint John's leading scorer in the regular season (105 points) has established himself as a legitimate top-five option for the NHL draft next month. In 13 playoff games, he's scoring at nearly a 2 points per game clip (13 goals, 25 points 1.92 PPG) and has been Gerard Gallant's go-to guy up front. He tallied an overtime goal against Victoriaville, and anytime a player is scoring a goal per game as Huberdeau has done, he's going to be a hot commodity among NHL teams. We wouldn't be at surprised to see Huberdeau go third overall to Florida, but cannot envision that he will drop out of the top-five. He has all the natural size (though he's skinny and needs to get stronger), talent and a gamer's mentality you want in a stud forward. We love the way Huberdeau carries himself on and off the ice, and he's done precisely what B2011DW predicted for him back before the playoffs started: he's taken on a Taylor Hall-like scoring role on a deep playoff run. His heroics will be fresh in the minds of the scouts for teams in the top-five when they sit down for their final meetings to hash out their lists.
Prediction: Top-three pick in draft; too skilled, too productive, just too damn good to fall very far.

Zack Phillips, RW- A bit of a surprise to the general public when he appeared ninth overall on The Hockey News' 2011 Draft Preview which was released last week in Canada. However, some scouts are telling us that Phillips in the top-10 isn't much of a shocker to them given his big goal scoring potential and a natural nose for the net that players like Jeff Skinner have forced NHL teams to respect. Phillips is not an explosive player, and he's certainly benefited from skating alongside playmakers like Huberdeau and Michael Kirkpatrick this season, but to insinuate that he's not a lethal scoring threat is to sell the former Massachusetts prep player short. The former Lawrence Academy standout (19 goals, 48 points in 30 games) from Fredericton, NB was involved in a car accident that killed teammate Mark Frattaroli in September 2008 (Frattaroli was driving when the vehicle struck a tree). Zack is an October 1992 birthdate, so he's on the older scale of the 2011 class, but he had a tremendous season with 38 goals and 95 points. At 6-1, 195 pounds, he can drive hard to the net and has outstanding hands to finish off plays in close.
Prediction: 10-15 pick; NHL teams love goal scorers, and while he's not the best skater, his size, hands and hockey sense make too much sense for him to stick around on the board for long.

Nathan Beaulieu, D- Opinions on this defenseman are split, but when talking about players with a high ceiling and the ubiquitous scouting term "upside" this New Brunswick native has it. Although not as big as Dougie Hamilton, Beaulieu nonetheless plays big and brings a physical edge to his game with the ability to fight if provoked. In 13 games, he's tallied three goals and 14 points. Beaulieu is a fine skater and works very effectively on the point. His father, Jacques, used to be the Saint John head coach and is currently an assistant for Dale Hunter with the London Knights, so Beaulieu has grown up around high-level hockey and has had good coaching. Central had him fifth overall in their final rankings, but THN only had him 18th. He got off to a slow start this season offensively, and he could be a case of a pick-your-flavor player in terms of some NHL teams liking him a lot more than others.
Prediction: This one's tougher; internet chatter makes Beaulieu a candidate for top-10 selection in June, and he could get there, but we've heard enough lukewarm opinions on him from NHL sources which could mean he's closer 15-20 than 9 or 10. Solid first-rounder, but his ranking is all over the map.

Tomas Jurco, RW- Slovak winger scored 30 goals this season and has tallied six more in his club's 13 postseason games, posting 16 points. By now, Jurco's puckhandling exploits are legendary on You Tube. As far as slick, puck possession forwards with dynamic moves go, he is at the top of the 2011 class. We also liked his performance at the 2011 WJC and did not understand why his coach shorted him on ice time, especially on the power play. Yes, Jurco is a bit one-dimensional at this stage, but comes off like an affable kid who is willing to work on it and who wants to be a player. He's been overshadowed by Huberdeau and Phillips this year after being expected to vie for a top-10 draft selection, but Jurco is still a dangerous offensive player with the tools to be an impact scorer in the NHL one day.
Prediction: Late first-rounder, top-five in second at latest. Overall game is a question, but his offensive chops are so intriguing that it's hard to imagine one of those final-1st contenders not rolling the dice on this guy.

Scott Oke LW- Overrated on Central's final rankings, this winger has nice size at 6-2, and can skate well, but he's not had a lot of ice time given how talented his club is. His production barely registered on the radar given how high Central had him, and his playoff scoring totals reflect his reduced role on the club: 12 games, 1-4-5. With Oke, it's all about what he *could* become and his physical traits are admittedly intriguing, but he simply hasn't done enough to justify where they have him. And we believe his ultimate draft spot will reflect where NHL clubs more realistically have him.
Prediction: We'd be surprised if Oke goes anywhere before the late-3rd round, but his physical tools and measurables are better than that of teammate Tesink. Middle rounds seems more on target for Oke.

Ryan Tesink, LW- Like Oke Tesink was ranked too prominently by Central given his lack of numbers, and this kid has some major filling out to do. He has some skill and the instincts to play the game at the next level, but he doesn't have a lot of size or the frame to add the kind of weight and strength you want in a player, so he'll have his work cut out for him. In 13 games, Tesink has two goals and 3 points.
Prediction: We like Tesink's hockey sense and playmaking ability, but this kid is more like a 5th-7th-round project than anything else to us.

Central releases final rankings: Nugent-Hopkins headlines class; top-10 analysis

To nobody's surprise, Red Deer Rebels center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sits atop the NHL Central Scouting Service's final rankings for North American skaters for the 2010-11 season. The list was released today, and featured some interesting movement, as RNH moved up to the top spot from his mid-term position of No. 3 after a tremendous second half that saw him hit the century mark for points (31 goals, 106 points) to tie Ryan Strome for most points by a CHL draft eligible this season.

You can see the entire list here, but this post will attempt to shed some light on some key areas until we can track down some NHL sources to weigh in with their opinions.

RNH is a dynamic, game-breaking talent who belongs at the top of the list. Some have made interesting observations about his production, both predominant success with the man advantage and in terms of him requiring room to operate. In all honesty, the NHL and independent scouts we've spoken to have raved about his pure skill and ability to get it done, so the only real concern with him right now is putting some size on his very slender frame. Even with some of the doubts, RNH has still managed to put the puck in the net and set up myriad other goals, so as far as we're concerned, he deserves his spot atop the NA skaters list.

His ascendance displaces Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog, whose club was knocked out of the first round of the OHL playoffs in seven games by the upstart Plymouth Whalers. Landeskog is No. 2 after a 36-goal, 66-point season hampered by a high ankle sprain suffered in December, which kept him out of the World Jr. Championship in Buffalo and forced him to miss about six weeks.

Jonathan Huberdeau moved up one spot from his fourth spot at mid-term, and the Saint John Sea Dogs standout with his 105 points is primed to land inside the top-five or just outside if he drops slightly.

The first two defensemen in North America appear at 4th and 5th- Dougie Hamilton, who has been steadily tracked all year on this blog, and Nathan Beaulieu, another member of the juggernaut Saint John team that steamrolled the QMJHL this season. Hamilton is 6-4 and skates very well, though some scouts question his vision and hockey sense (yet he still managed to score 58 points this season). Beaulieu isn't as big as Hamilton, but has excellent skating and puck moving ability, some nastiness and might be a little more rounded at this stage than Hamilton is.

Sean Couturier fell down to No. 6 on the list, which is consistent with some of the buzz we've been hearing on him. However, it's hard to imagine he'll fall very far come draft day. He's simply too big, talented and promising to take a major nosedive as other highly-touted prospects have done in the past. He's not the best skater, but let's be frank: it's not a major flaw and is correctible with some work on mechanics. He has the size and power to be a legitimate power forward and top-six player for years in this league, and we don't put a lot of stock in his WJC performance because of the role he was given. Yes, he could have produced more because the opportunities were there for him, and that was noted back in January when we published our notes. But at the same time, the fact that he generated those scoring chances counts as well. He battled mononucleosis which has a debilitating effect on any athlete, so in our view Couturier is not going to have the kind of fall the rumor mongers will predict for him. If he gets out of the top-five, then whoever snags him shortly thereafter is getting some nice value.

We're surprised to see Swiss winger Sven Bartschi ahead of Ryan Strome on the list at 7 and 8, however. Strome is someone who produced from wire to wire and lost the OHL scoring championship on the very last day of the season when Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson had big days. Bartschi is skilled, but he's on the small side and we don't like his perimeter game. Strome can do a little bit of everything and has some real high-end hockey sense and a nonstop motor. We're highly doubtful that Bartschi will get picked ahead of Strome on June 24, though we do feel Bartschi is a solid first-round player.

Two intriguing defensemen are 9th and 10th on the list: Ryan Murphy, whom we profiled in detail here last week, and the player this blog has more posts on than anyone else, needs no major introduction if you're a long-time reader of this space. His lack of size and functional strength continue to be the only drawbacks to this player, who tore it up in the first-round loss to Plymouth and convinced several NHL scouts we've talked to, among others in the independent community, that he deserves to be closer to 5 than 10 on draft day. We believe that the Bruins have a genuine interest in Murphy among other players, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Duncan Siemens is more the thunder to Murphy's lightning. If Murphy is the small, dynamic guy, Siemens brings the lumber with his mobility and tough edge. A very good skater lacking only minor issues (and even that is debateable), Siemens may not have Murphy's game-breaking element, but he's big, fiery and has some upside. A player who can do it all including fight, he was actually seen on camera giving Murphy fighting tips when the two played together on Team Cherry during the CHL Top Prospects Game. Siemens dropped the gloves with David Musil in that game and is one of those guys who at first doesn't seem like much, but really grows on you in time. At nearly 6-3, and 192 pounds, he has a lot of room to grow, and scouts love his zeal and passion for the game.

As you can see from the top-10, this is a pretty solid class. We'll have much more later this evening, when we break down more of the North American skaters, but we wanted to get this post up and to you for quick digestion before we take on the bulk of the list in the next post.

QMJHL 2010-11 regular season roundup

It has been a pretty good year for the QMJHL in terms of draft eligible talents.

We saw the cream rise to the top, and although Sean Couturier has fallen down some of the lists out there, we're not buying that he'll make too much of a free-fall on draft day. He could possibly fall out of the top-three, sure- but beyond that, he shouldn't last long.

The big winner in the QMJHL regular season in 2010-11 was the Saint John Sea Dogs, who boast a plethora of draft eligible talent, headlined by Jonathan Huberdeau, who we made a case for Boston drafting on this blog space last month. You can check it out here if you haven't read it. The Sea Dogs ran away with the regular season title and are Memorial Cup frontrunners given their impressive depth. They are also a playoff-tested team, having advanced all the way to the President's Cup championship last spring before bowing out to the Moncton Wildcats. Barring a major upset, the 'Dogs should be Mississauga-bound in May.

You can go all the way back to August and look at who was on our QMJHL watch list before the season and see that Jonathan Huberdeau was the big winner. He really came on this year and had a tremendous performance. Conversely, what the hell happened to Andrei Makarov? In fairness, he had a rough transition and played much better for Lewiston at the end of the year- he may have done enough to get a mid- or late-round call, but the big winner for Q goalies this season was Christopher Gibson.

Here's a quick look at some of the top QMJHL draft eligibles and where they sit going into the postseason. If you see a lot of Saint John guys on the list, your eyes do not deceive you.

1. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW Saint John- We knew this guy was a talented playmaker coming into the season, but what we didn't know was just how good he would be at putting the puck in the net. Huberdeau led all 2011 draft eligibles in the CHL in goal scoring this season with 43 markers. He finished the year third overall in league scoring with 105 points in 67 games. He's the complete package of physical tools, hockey skills and sense with a natural knack for scoring. Versatile; spent most of the season on the left wing, but is a natural center. NHL teams like multi-taskers. He's also a mature kid who carries himself well and exudes professionalism. There is no reason to think that Huberdeau can't crack the top-5 in June when all is said and done, but if he doesn't he's gone no later than 6 or 7. He reminds us a lot of Luc Robitaille in the way he comes off during interviews, and we can't imagine he's going to drop much if at all when the draft comes.
Stock watch: Blue-chip; only a complete dud of a playoff performance is going to hurt Huberdeau's draft prospects, and frankly, we don't see that happening. If Saint John makes its expected deep run, Huberdeau could be the Taylor Hall of the 2011 postseason in terms of a guy who scouts see well into May and therefore leaves a fresh and lasting impression leading into the draft.
Here's an interview with Huberdeau and Beaulieu at CHL Top Prospects Game

2. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville- Every year there seems to be a player at or near the top who falls off for whatever reason. Couturier is that guy, even thoughhe finished just behind Huberdeau in league scoring at the fourth spot. He's got a nice 6-4, 195-pound frame and has the hands and instincts to be a scorer at the next level. What is hurting him most are his heavy feet, but you can expect that he will spend a lot of time with power skating instructors between now and whenever he's knocking on the NHL door to remedy that shortcoming. We're not buying the argument that because his father was a journeyman, Couturier might be bound for the same NHL fate- just look at Sidney Crosby. NHL teams aren't spending much time using that as a major sticking point as to whether to draft Couturier or not. Two straight years of 96 points should be convincing enough evidence that this kid can get it done offensively.
Stock Watch: We wouldn't say he's falling as much as other guys around him have played so well that Couturier's star has lost its luster a bit. A strong postseason would go a long way toward quieting the critics and re-establishing himself as one of the top players in class.
For more on Couturier, you can catch this video on him done for the CHL Top Prospects Game in January.

3. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John- Superb two-way defenseman may be the one guy not being talked about with Dougie Hamilton and Duncan Siemens, but could crack the top-10 of the draft if a team likes him enough. The Ontario-born, Maritimes-raised Beaulieu is not quite as big as Hamilton, but is a good skater who can hit, pass and shoot. He's got a real nasty edge to him, too. He'll fight, but doesn't do it all that often after creating some space for himself in some one-sided bouts. Smart player and son of a London Knights assistant coach, his 12 goals and 45 points and a plus-44 are numbers that may be inflated given how good his team was this season, but this guy has some legitimate potential and should be off the board by pick 15 at the latest. Of course, you never know- we would have never believed that both of Brandon Gormley and Cam Fowler would drop as far as he did?
Stock Watch: So long as Saint John is playing, Beaulieu's got a nice chance of raising his profile and moving up in the draft. Like Huberdeau, the playoffs could be this guy's big moment to make a push to be the second d-man off the board after Adam Larsson.
Here's an NHL-produced video on Beaulieu with some interesting background.


4. Zack Phillips, C Saint John- With 38 goals and 95 points, Phillips was one of the surprises to come out of the Quebec league this season. Although he's not a great skater, Phillips is the classic guy who has that "nose for the net" and just finds ways to finish even without the blazing speed. He and Huberdeau were a deadly duo this season, and pure scorers like Phillips always find a way to get it done. The question with a guy like him is whether his numbers are more a product of the superior club he was on, or a reflection of his own superior offensive instincts and quick release. We think it's the latter- he's going to produce no matter who you put him with.
Stock Watch: With his production, it's up, but like Huberdeau and Beaulieu, he needs a strong playoff performance to stay foremost in scouts' minds.
Here's an Open Ice interview of Phillips from the CHL Top Prospects Game. Sharp kid and former Deerfield Academy product.

5. Tomas Jurco, RW Saint John- This puck wizard's exploits are well-documented on YouTube, but this has been a bit of a disappointing campaign for the Slovak. Expected to be a top-five pick in 2011 in some circles after his impressive rookie season a year ago, his production was up-and-down. He finished with 31 goals and 56 points, but was a streaky player in doing so, getting off to a hot start, fading in the late fall/early winter before heating up again in February. His hands could be without peer in this draft, and we liked what we saw in flashes from him at the WJC. He may not crack the first round, but if he isn't a top-30 pick, he shouldn't last much into the second.
Here's a video on Jurco produced during CHL Top Prospects Game where you'll see his puck and stick sleight-of-hand for yourself

6. Phillip Danault, C/LW Victoriaville- Speedy and versatile forward has a high compete level that has become his calling card this season despite some pretty average size. At only 6-0 and about 170 he doesn't have the functional strength right now, and some are concerned about his frame and how much more room he has to grow. Still, he's been pretty productive with 23 goals and 66 points this season. He's kind of like the little engine that could and if he goes in the top-60 picks, then you'll have your answer as to whether an NHL team thinks he projects as a legitimate pro. If he slips, then the wildcard element of this prospect will be more in play. His skating, hands and creativity are impressive, so don't bet against this guy.
Here's a nice video on Danault from John Moore, who does very good work in Q

7. Christopher Gibson, G Chicoutimi-Finnish goaltender put up some nice numbers on a pretty mediocre club this season. He posted a 14-14-3-5 record with 2.41 GAA, .920 save percentage and 4 shutouts. He's about 6-1, 200 pounds and plays that classic butterfly style, blotting out a large portion of the net and daring shooters to find holes through his coverage. Gibson is a driven kid who came to Canada two years ago to play for the Notre Dame Hounds in Saskatchewan (where he won a minor midget national title) and has stuck around to gain the trust of NHL scouts. We think he'll be one of the first three goalies taken in this draft, and our gut feel is he'll be three behind American John Gibson and countryman Samu Perhonen.
Here's another nice John Moore video on Gibson for your review

8. Ryan Tesink, C Saint John- The very average-sized hometown player has some interesting upside. Tesink's numbers are nothing to write home about- he scored just 8 goals on the season, with two of them coming in the team's final game of the year against PEI (went 37 previous games without one before breaking out). More of a playmaker (27 assists in 59 games playing on the third line), he's got good speed and is an intelligent two-way player. It's hard to stand out when you play on a stacked team like he does, but when he gets stronger (he's about 6-0, and only 160 pounds or so) and more experienced, you could see a jump in the production. He's even willing to drop the gloves and fight, though because of his size, he's not exactly suited for such endeavors. Still, you have to admire his willingness- he's one of those "whatever it takes to win" guys. Interesting player who gets lost in the shuffle of Saint John's galaxy of stars, but could be a real good one soon.

9. Logan Shaw, RW Cape Breton- Big hometown kid makes his B2011DW debut today, surprisingly enough. The skilled right winger has quietly impressed playing in one of the league's backwaters. He's got a long, powerful stride and while he needs to upgrade his first couple of steps, he's got nice speed when he gets going and really came on after December, scoring 26 goals and 46 points in 68 games for the Screaming Eagles. Guys with his 6-3 frame and quick hands usually end up being in pretty high demand. It will be interesting to see if he can crack the top-three rounds in June.
Here's Shaw's QMHJL draft video from 2008

10. David Honzik, G Victoriaville- Big, athletic Czech goalie has had an up-and-down season for les Tigres, but he's got some tools to be a good one down the road. He's got very good size at 6-3, 195 and has extremely quick pads. He's working on his rebound control and overall consistency, but so long as a team is patient and willing to put in the time to develop him, he's got the skill to make it as a big league puck stopper eventually.
Here's another John Moore vid on David Honzik

11. Xavier Ouellet, D Montreal- Average-sized defenseman isn't a great skater, but sees the ice well and has a good head on his shoulders. A strong passer and puck-mover, the risk for Ouellet, who started the season like a house on fire, is that he just doesn't have the size or feet to be a defenseman at the highest level. Evidence to support that belief amongst some in the scouting community was his poor performance in the CHL Top Prospects Game.
Thanks to Jerome B for providing a vid of a Ouellet goal via his NHLDraftVideo blog

Late riser:

Troy Vance, D Victoriaville- American defender is 6-5, 205 and kind of came out of nowhere after starting the season in Rouyn-Noranda. He's a big hitter, meat-and-potatoes type who will drop the gloves. From what we've seen, he reminds us a lot of Bruins rookie Adam McQuaid, but with a little better mobility than Quaider at the same stage of his junior career.

Overagers worth a look:

Marek Hrivik, LW Moncton- Yes, again. We'll ring the bell on this Slovak, who scored 38 for the Wildcats this season for the second straight season. He's a '91 and in his final year of eligibility for the draft. We liked what we saw from him at the WJC this past winter, and although he has a reputation for being soft and not being willing to go into traffic, we saw none of that from him in Buffalo. He has a bomb of a shot, even if his feet are a bit heavy.

Tomas Filippi, RW Quebec- Passed over last year because of perceived indifference and inconsistency issues, this Czech forward has had a better time of stringing effective shifts and games together in the Q. He's a speedster who creates offense and plays a high tempo game. Why not?

Alex Saulnier, C Moncton- Undersized, but ultra-skilled and creative pivot is out with a concussion suffered recently, so durability concerns are raised with him off the bat. But prior to the hit, he was one of the QMJHL's top scorers (85 points in 65 games) and had really impressed by stepping up his game to another level this season.