John and Christopher Gibson aren't related, but they are brothers in arms when it comes to enduring the slings and arrows (and pucks) of hockey's most demanding position.
One's an American and one is from Finland.
The two share surnames and are considered to be the No. 1-2 goalies available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
John Gibson secured his spot atop the food chain with an outstanding performance in Germany, named the Under-18 tournament's top netminder and playing with a great deal of poise and technical perfection.
Both have size, athleticism and the ability to make big stops when the game is on the line working in their favor. They're also likeable guys who don't seem to let the pressure get to them. Especially liked Christopher's reaction to the banter about his friend and fellow Finn Samu Perhonen.
Taking goalies high may or may not be en vogue this year, but the two Gibsons won't have long to wait in any case. They are the best in this group.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Samu Perhonen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Samu Perhonen. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
World Under-18 Championship Day 6: Preliminary round notes
The World Under-18 Championship preliminary round is in the books. We'll see quarterfinal games tomorrow: Russia and Finland go at it, and Canada and Germany, with USA and Sweden earning byes to the semifinal games as the Group A and B winners.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Saturday, April 16, 2011
World Under-18 Championship Day 3: Canada- Finland observations
Team Canada had a wild third period to overcome a 3-2 deficit and win a late shootout with Team Finland by a 5-4 final to push their record to 2-0 at the World Under-18 Championship in Dresden, Germany.
Mark Scheifele scored a highlight reel breakaway goal to tie the game with abnout 10 minutes left, and then Nick Cousins deflected a point shot from captain and 2012-eligible Ryan Murray 45 seconds later to gain the lead. Colin Smith then sniped a high shot that beat Samu Perhonen (on a shot we think the Finnish goalie should have had) to make it 5-3. However, Markus Granlund got a late power play tally, but the Finns couldn't solve Malcolm Subban (another 2012 prospect) and Canada prevailed.
It was a good game and both sides played hard. We've been critical of Joel Armia on this blog space, but today, he looked every bit a scoring stud and top-15 pick for the 2011 draft. Another impressive player for FInland was 2012 eligible defenseman Olli Maatta.
Canada next faces Norway, while the Finns have a Scandinavian showdown tomorrow vs. Sweden. That one we're going to see as well!
We're going to stay off the 2012 eligibles for now and will focus our notes on the 2011 draft candidates who stood out both positively and in a few cases, not-so-positively.
Mark Scheifele, C- Played a good game, hustling and making plays. However, his signature moment came with 10 minutes left in the third period, when he scored a brilliant goal to tie the score at 3-3. Standing in the high slot while Finland had possession in Canada's zone, he anticipated that a pass to the point was going to go off target and took off like he was shot from a rocket, chasing the puck down near the red line at center ice and splitting the defense of Henri Auvinen and Ville Pokka. As he gained a step and tried to separate, Auvinen hooked him, but Scheifele fought off the stick with an impressive display of strength, maintained control of the puck and then got Perhonen to bite on a quick fake. After the Finnish netminder laid out to make a poke check and missed, Scheifele tucked it to the backhand and put it home. Plays like that one are why the Barrie Colts pivot's stock has exploded over the second half of the season and why he looks like a surefire first-round pick in June.
Ryan Murphy, D- Continued to show why he's the best offensive defenseman in the draft. We forgot for a second that he switched to No. 14 for the tourney (24 with Kitchener) and were watching as this Canada player outskated about three Finnish players in the neutral zone, gained the line and made a nice net drive that didn't result in a goal, but certainly caught our attention. We weren't surprised then, when consulting the lineup sheet and seeing that No. 14 was indeed Murphy. It was a signature type of move from him. He scored a goal in the second period to tie it at two apiece when he zoomed up the ice with Colin Smith on a 2-on-1, took a sauce pass on the forehand and effortlessly snapped it into the net behind Perhonen in full rush. We didn't key much on Murphy's defense, but he assisted on the first goal of the game scored by Eric Locke and his offensive prowess was in full bloom today.
Mark McNeill, C- Big horse has been impressive for Canada in the tourney so far. Anyone who thinks he doesn't have upside hasn't been paying close attention to what McNeill brings to the table (82 points for Prince Albert this season) and he's making a legitimate run to a potential top-10 selection in June. McNeill drew primary assist on the Locke goal, taking Murphy's point pass and getting it hard to the net where Locke was able to convert the rebound. But, what impressed us was McNeill's defense and discipline. He moved the puck smartly, backchecked diligently and didn't force things that weren't there. On offense, he protects the puck well and sees the ice like a true playmaker. Stock watch: goin' up.
Travis Ewanyk, C- Another kid whose draft stock is on the rise, Ewanyk finished his checks all game long and played with determination. He won the faceoff that led to Cousins' goal to put Canada ahead in the third after Scheifele tied it. His skating stride seems a bit choppy, but he has a wide base and seems to get where he needs to. This guy is one of those gritty, intense players you win with. Kept the pedal to the floor the whole game and came through with a huge assist in a key offensive zone draw. Watch this guy.
Colin Smith, F- He may be small, but he has some serious wheels and just seemed to make plays every time he was in position to do so. Made a beautiful feed to Murphy on a 2-on-1, and then sniped one that seemed to fool Perhonen for what was the game-winner. Canada needs lesser lights like Smith to make an impact in this tournament to take the pressure off of some of their bigger name guys up front, and Smith did that.
Alan Quine, C- Quiet game for No. 18. Didn't do much to stand out, but made several nice passes that show off his outstanding vision and soft hands. Not much of a physical player. Quine has some pretty good wheels and has the ability to get it done with puck possession, but if this game was an indicator of his season overall, you can understand why his stock has fallen.
Joel Armia, F- Finland's best player today had it going offensively with a goal and two helpers. His first assist was a nifty pass, but his goal had scouts talking no doubt. Standing alone off to Subban's right while on the power play (someone blew their assignment), he got the puck and ripped it. Subban made a terrific diving save, going from left to right, but flopped out of the net and on the ice while Armia chased his own rebound, took it around the back of the net and then banked it off of one of Canada's players scrambling to cover for Subban, and the puck found its way into the net. That was just a natural scorer's play and Armia's poise and confidence to pull that off is worth noting. He's got a long, languid stride that makes it appear he isn't skating hard, but he does cover a lot of ground. With his natural height, when he gets stronger and adds weight, Armia will be a load to contain.
Markus Granlund, F- Scored a late power play goal to get Finland within one, but not overly noticeable in this one. Average skater, has some creativity. Nowhere near the pure talent and prospect his older brother Mikael is, but could become a serviceable NHLer in time.
Henri Auvinen, D- Unfortunately, he stood out more for when Scheifele blew by him on the way to the net and then fought off Auvinen's attempted hook. It was the defenseman who ended up sliding on the ice and into the backwall on the play, while Scheifele went to the net and put it in to tie the score. Not much else to judge Auvinen by, but he took the wrong angle to the puck on that play and paid for it.
Samu Perhonen, G- Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice. Just a poor game overall for Perhonen and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds or if backup Richard Ullberg, who was a disaster this season after coming in as the name goalie prospect coming out of Finland, gets a shot. We expect it will be Perhonen against Sweden, but he might have a short leash.
Mark Scheifele scored a highlight reel breakaway goal to tie the game with abnout 10 minutes left, and then Nick Cousins deflected a point shot from captain and 2012-eligible Ryan Murray 45 seconds later to gain the lead. Colin Smith then sniped a high shot that beat Samu Perhonen (on a shot we think the Finnish goalie should have had) to make it 5-3. However, Markus Granlund got a late power play tally, but the Finns couldn't solve Malcolm Subban (another 2012 prospect) and Canada prevailed.
It was a good game and both sides played hard. We've been critical of Joel Armia on this blog space, but today, he looked every bit a scoring stud and top-15 pick for the 2011 draft. Another impressive player for FInland was 2012 eligible defenseman Olli Maatta.
Canada next faces Norway, while the Finns have a Scandinavian showdown tomorrow vs. Sweden. That one we're going to see as well!
We're going to stay off the 2012 eligibles for now and will focus our notes on the 2011 draft candidates who stood out both positively and in a few cases, not-so-positively.
Mark Scheifele, C- Played a good game, hustling and making plays. However, his signature moment came with 10 minutes left in the third period, when he scored a brilliant goal to tie the score at 3-3. Standing in the high slot while Finland had possession in Canada's zone, he anticipated that a pass to the point was going to go off target and took off like he was shot from a rocket, chasing the puck down near the red line at center ice and splitting the defense of Henri Auvinen and Ville Pokka. As he gained a step and tried to separate, Auvinen hooked him, but Scheifele fought off the stick with an impressive display of strength, maintained control of the puck and then got Perhonen to bite on a quick fake. After the Finnish netminder laid out to make a poke check and missed, Scheifele tucked it to the backhand and put it home. Plays like that one are why the Barrie Colts pivot's stock has exploded over the second half of the season and why he looks like a surefire first-round pick in June.
Ryan Murphy, D- Continued to show why he's the best offensive defenseman in the draft. We forgot for a second that he switched to No. 14 for the tourney (24 with Kitchener) and were watching as this Canada player outskated about three Finnish players in the neutral zone, gained the line and made a nice net drive that didn't result in a goal, but certainly caught our attention. We weren't surprised then, when consulting the lineup sheet and seeing that No. 14 was indeed Murphy. It was a signature type of move from him. He scored a goal in the second period to tie it at two apiece when he zoomed up the ice with Colin Smith on a 2-on-1, took a sauce pass on the forehand and effortlessly snapped it into the net behind Perhonen in full rush. We didn't key much on Murphy's defense, but he assisted on the first goal of the game scored by Eric Locke and his offensive prowess was in full bloom today.
Mark McNeill, C- Big horse has been impressive for Canada in the tourney so far. Anyone who thinks he doesn't have upside hasn't been paying close attention to what McNeill brings to the table (82 points for Prince Albert this season) and he's making a legitimate run to a potential top-10 selection in June. McNeill drew primary assist on the Locke goal, taking Murphy's point pass and getting it hard to the net where Locke was able to convert the rebound. But, what impressed us was McNeill's defense and discipline. He moved the puck smartly, backchecked diligently and didn't force things that weren't there. On offense, he protects the puck well and sees the ice like a true playmaker. Stock watch: goin' up.
Travis Ewanyk, C- Another kid whose draft stock is on the rise, Ewanyk finished his checks all game long and played with determination. He won the faceoff that led to Cousins' goal to put Canada ahead in the third after Scheifele tied it. His skating stride seems a bit choppy, but he has a wide base and seems to get where he needs to. This guy is one of those gritty, intense players you win with. Kept the pedal to the floor the whole game and came through with a huge assist in a key offensive zone draw. Watch this guy.
Colin Smith, F- He may be small, but he has some serious wheels and just seemed to make plays every time he was in position to do so. Made a beautiful feed to Murphy on a 2-on-1, and then sniped one that seemed to fool Perhonen for what was the game-winner. Canada needs lesser lights like Smith to make an impact in this tournament to take the pressure off of some of their bigger name guys up front, and Smith did that.
Alan Quine, C- Quiet game for No. 18. Didn't do much to stand out, but made several nice passes that show off his outstanding vision and soft hands. Not much of a physical player. Quine has some pretty good wheels and has the ability to get it done with puck possession, but if this game was an indicator of his season overall, you can understand why his stock has fallen.
Joel Armia, F- Finland's best player today had it going offensively with a goal and two helpers. His first assist was a nifty pass, but his goal had scouts talking no doubt. Standing alone off to Subban's right while on the power play (someone blew their assignment), he got the puck and ripped it. Subban made a terrific diving save, going from left to right, but flopped out of the net and on the ice while Armia chased his own rebound, took it around the back of the net and then banked it off of one of Canada's players scrambling to cover for Subban, and the puck found its way into the net. That was just a natural scorer's play and Armia's poise and confidence to pull that off is worth noting. He's got a long, languid stride that makes it appear he isn't skating hard, but he does cover a lot of ground. With his natural height, when he gets stronger and adds weight, Armia will be a load to contain.
Markus Granlund, F- Scored a late power play goal to get Finland within one, but not overly noticeable in this one. Average skater, has some creativity. Nowhere near the pure talent and prospect his older brother Mikael is, but could become a serviceable NHLer in time.
Henri Auvinen, D- Unfortunately, he stood out more for when Scheifele blew by him on the way to the net and then fought off Auvinen's attempted hook. It was the defenseman who ended up sliding on the ice and into the backwall on the play, while Scheifele went to the net and put it in to tie the score. Not much else to judge Auvinen by, but he took the wrong angle to the puck on that play and paid for it.
Samu Perhonen, G- Tough game for Europe's top goalie on Central's final rankings (and some would certainly argue in favor of Swede Magnus Hellberg). He was shaky all day and seemed to be fighting the puck. Big, athletic Finn takes up a lot of net and moves fluidly. However, today he was off his game, giving up some shots from the outside that he probably should have had. He seemed jumpy and was overcommitting all day. On one weird play, Perhonen played the puck behind the net and then blew a tire gliding back to his crease and sprawling out on the ice. Just a poor game overall for Perhonen and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds or if backup Richard Ullberg, who was a disaster this season after coming in as the name goalie prospect coming out of Finland, gets a shot. We expect it will be Perhonen against Sweden, but he might have a short leash.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Central Scouting European final rankings: Goalies and Sleepers
We're here with the final installment on our Central Scouting final rankings series for Europe, closing out the overseas players with observations and notes on goalies and sleepers.
1. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- The top netminder in class deserves his spot at the top. He's got the lively size, athleticism and solid butterfly technique to be an NHL stopper in time. He reminds us of Tuukka Rask in terms of his body type and playing style and competes with the same kind of swagger and confidence when on top of his game. Like John Gibson, Perhonen will likely see a drop in where he is drafted compared to where he might have gone even last year simply because of the emerging trend for NHL clubs to focus on skill positions early and grab project goalies later because of the disparity in developmental timelines and the quality netminders who have been picked in the mid-to-late rounds as opposed to early on.
2. Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- Huge late-bloomer will likely be the top-three or four goalies off the board in June because he's older and more advanced in his development. Teams may be hoping to grab the Swede and put him immediately into the AHL with potential for him to see NHL action sooner rather than later. Takes up so much of the net, but is also extremely agile and recovers well. Plays with some laudable focus and concentration and that is borne out in his numbers, which are terrific. The April 1991 birthdate is 6-5, 200 pounds and posted an insane .935 save percentage and 2.04 GAA in 31 games for the Allsvenskan club Almtuna. Don't be surprised to see him go off the board first or even second after Gibson. This is the kind of player that could easily be rated the top goaltender on multiple teams' boards. Central didn't even have him on their mid-term rankings. That's how quickly Hellberg's star has risen this season.
3. Jaroslav Pavelka, G Hradec Kralove Jr. (CZE- Jr.)- The best Czech goalie not named David Honzik stayed home this season and has the size, athleticism and tools to be a solid NHL goalie one day. What he lacks in pure technique and training, he makes up for in competitiveness and a solid work ethic. Not an instinctive player, so his positioning needs to be near-flawless sometimes. That could work against him as he continues to move up the ladder of progression, but if he fails, it won't be for a lack of trying. Kid wants to be a player and will put in the work to get there.
4. Benjamin Conz, G Langnau (SUI)- Passed over twice previously, this should be the year that Conz gets the draft call because he's proven himself to be a big-time gamer in not one but two of the previous WJCs in '10 and '11. He's short and isn't the most physically fit goalie to hit the scene (anyone remember Norm Maracle?), but if your ultimate criteria is stopping the puck and displaying grace under fire, there aren't many goalies better with those attributes than Conz is. He doesn't have great technique, but damn, son- he gets the job done! We thought he might get picked last summer, but that didn't happen. After another excellent WJC we expect someone to take a chance on him, albeit with a late pick.
5. Lars Volden, G Espoo Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- Last time we saw this guy, he was going in for the starter who pulled himself against Canada in the WJC and getting lit up himself. The 6-3 Norweigian is a July 1992-born goalie who was passed over in 2010 and we suspect will get passed up again even though he played OK for the Blues' Jr. team. He may have some decent raw tools, but we can't get behind mentally soft goalies who come apart in big games. Yes, Norway vs. Canada was a lot like David vs. Goliath, but the goalies could have at least given Denmark a fighting chance. Neither guy did and it was a total gong show in the process. Can't imagine that any scout who watched that Canada game and how lousy Volden played would have much confidence in him to be an NHL player one day.
European Sleepers
29. Adam Pettersson, RW Skellefteå (SWE)- Another '92 who was passed up in 2010, this player has average size (6-0, 194), but is shifty and creative. Strong on his skates and a lower center of gravity with powerful leg drive and tough to knock off stride. Exploits seams in defenses with his quickness, intelligence and ability to find the open man. More of a passer than a scorer, he nonetheless finds the back of the net in big moments. Scored 8 goals in 24 games with Skellefteå's J20 team, and even saw time in the SEL to the tune of 22 games, going 1-1-2. Not the star that scouts saw potential in several years back, but an interesting enough prospect worth a later flyer as a sleeper.
36. Dean Kukan, D GCK Zurich (SUI 2)- A bit of a forgotten man this season, this defenseman is a jack-of-all-trades type who doesn't stand out in any one area, but brings a solid all-around presence at 6-2, 200 pounds. He's a good, not great skater. He plays solid, not exceptional defense. And he can move the puck up the ice, but mostly plays a conservative style. Like many Swiss, he would need to prove to NHL clubs he's committed to playing in North America before anyone spends a pick on him, but there's enough there we think that he should draw some interest.
53. Lukas Sedlak, C Ceske Budejovice (CZE- Jr.)- Czech pivot scored 14 goals, 27 points in 47 games with Budejovice's U20 team this season. Industrious and plays with passion and intensity, but lacks the elite skills and natural creativity to present the kind of upside that excites NHL clubs. Played well in the Ivan Hlinka for Czech Republic, but his production on a junior squad was pretty average all things considered. He's an effective two-way player and could develop into something as a lower-line guy, but lacks the kind of dynamic presence that will earn him a lot of attention leading up to the draft.
60. Norman Hauner, RW Koln (Germany)- He's an older player with a December 1991 birthdate, but B2011DW loved this guy's game at the WJC. He's not very big, but plays bigger than his 5-11, 176-pouund listed vitals. He skates well, though has a short choppy stride that he could stand to lengthen. He manages to get from A to B, however and plays a real high-energy, opportunistic game. Hauner was one of the more noticeable forwards on a weak German entry in Buffalo. He's an obvious longshot, but you never know- when the team needed a goal or a big play, he was usually involved, along with fellow overager Marcel Noebels.
91. Oula Palve, C Jyvaskyla Jr. (FIN)- Little guy is fast, shifty, creative and tenacious. Another overager who was passed up in the last draft, but if he can add some mass and strength, might be worth a look as a late-round option. Can really fly and brings a high hockey IQ to the mix along with a passion for the game and willingness to get his nose dirty. Score 18 goals and 40 points in 32 games and then tore it up in the J20 playoffs with 2 goals and 9 points in just 4 games. This guy can play, and like Perhonen and Auvinen, the Bruins will have gotten a good, long look at him, so you never know.
104. Martin Gernat, D Kosice (SVK- Jr.)- Possibly one of the more underrated players on Central's list, and he firmly belongs in the sleeper category based on his ranking. RLR scout Radim Jelinek gave Gernat a strong review in an interview we did with him earlier this season. Gernat is 6-4, but lacks the weight and strength to be all that effective physically right now, but sees the ice well and plays a strong positional game. He's got some legitimate upside as a passer and puck mover and he's going to develop a powerful shot when he reaches his physical maturity.
NR- Richard Ullberg, G SaiPa Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- What the hell happened to this guy? Like Perhonen, Ullberg is the stereotypical Finnish butterfly goalie with size and a wide stance who takes up huge portions of the net and brings terrific reflexes and blocking/recovery abilities to the table. He started strong in some international competition, but faded fast and the wheels completely came off as his season on the HIFK J20 season progressed (.887 save percentage, 3.35 GAA in 15 GP). Ullberg was dominant as a 15- and 16-year-old, so scouts are left scratching their heads over his disastrous season. Did he peak too soon and this sieve what Ullberg really is, OR- do you spend a late pick on him in hopes that he gets his head back on straight and gets back on the developmental track. If you believe the latter, you could end up with a steal of a prospect, because he certainly has the physical attributes to be a top prospect. It's one gamble that just might be worth taking, but only if a team thinks he can pull it together with some good coaching and handling. (EDIT- See comment section for an update on Ullberg's status)
Well, that's a wrap on the European list.
We'll let this percolate a bit and then be back with some notes on a few key fallers like Brandon Saad and others with an attempt to explain what is going on with him after having talked to several people about his stalled development.
1. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- The top netminder in class deserves his spot at the top. He's got the lively size, athleticism and solid butterfly technique to be an NHL stopper in time. He reminds us of Tuukka Rask in terms of his body type and playing style and competes with the same kind of swagger and confidence when on top of his game. Like John Gibson, Perhonen will likely see a drop in where he is drafted compared to where he might have gone even last year simply because of the emerging trend for NHL clubs to focus on skill positions early and grab project goalies later because of the disparity in developmental timelines and the quality netminders who have been picked in the mid-to-late rounds as opposed to early on.
2. Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- Huge late-bloomer will likely be the top-three or four goalies off the board in June because he's older and more advanced in his development. Teams may be hoping to grab the Swede and put him immediately into the AHL with potential for him to see NHL action sooner rather than later. Takes up so much of the net, but is also extremely agile and recovers well. Plays with some laudable focus and concentration and that is borne out in his numbers, which are terrific. The April 1991 birthdate is 6-5, 200 pounds and posted an insane .935 save percentage and 2.04 GAA in 31 games for the Allsvenskan club Almtuna. Don't be surprised to see him go off the board first or even second after Gibson. This is the kind of player that could easily be rated the top goaltender on multiple teams' boards. Central didn't even have him on their mid-term rankings. That's how quickly Hellberg's star has risen this season.
3. Jaroslav Pavelka, G Hradec Kralove Jr. (CZE- Jr.)- The best Czech goalie not named David Honzik stayed home this season and has the size, athleticism and tools to be a solid NHL goalie one day. What he lacks in pure technique and training, he makes up for in competitiveness and a solid work ethic. Not an instinctive player, so his positioning needs to be near-flawless sometimes. That could work against him as he continues to move up the ladder of progression, but if he fails, it won't be for a lack of trying. Kid wants to be a player and will put in the work to get there.
4. Benjamin Conz, G Langnau (SUI)- Passed over twice previously, this should be the year that Conz gets the draft call because he's proven himself to be a big-time gamer in not one but two of the previous WJCs in '10 and '11. He's short and isn't the most physically fit goalie to hit the scene (anyone remember Norm Maracle?), but if your ultimate criteria is stopping the puck and displaying grace under fire, there aren't many goalies better with those attributes than Conz is. He doesn't have great technique, but damn, son- he gets the job done! We thought he might get picked last summer, but that didn't happen. After another excellent WJC we expect someone to take a chance on him, albeit with a late pick.
5. Lars Volden, G Espoo Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- Last time we saw this guy, he was going in for the starter who pulled himself against Canada in the WJC and getting lit up himself. The 6-3 Norweigian is a July 1992-born goalie who was passed over in 2010 and we suspect will get passed up again even though he played OK for the Blues' Jr. team. He may have some decent raw tools, but we can't get behind mentally soft goalies who come apart in big games. Yes, Norway vs. Canada was a lot like David vs. Goliath, but the goalies could have at least given Denmark a fighting chance. Neither guy did and it was a total gong show in the process. Can't imagine that any scout who watched that Canada game and how lousy Volden played would have much confidence in him to be an NHL player one day.
European Sleepers
29. Adam Pettersson, RW Skellefteå (SWE)- Another '92 who was passed up in 2010, this player has average size (6-0, 194), but is shifty and creative. Strong on his skates and a lower center of gravity with powerful leg drive and tough to knock off stride. Exploits seams in defenses with his quickness, intelligence and ability to find the open man. More of a passer than a scorer, he nonetheless finds the back of the net in big moments. Scored 8 goals in 24 games with Skellefteå's J20 team, and even saw time in the SEL to the tune of 22 games, going 1-1-2. Not the star that scouts saw potential in several years back, but an interesting enough prospect worth a later flyer as a sleeper.
36. Dean Kukan, D GCK Zurich (SUI 2)- A bit of a forgotten man this season, this defenseman is a jack-of-all-trades type who doesn't stand out in any one area, but brings a solid all-around presence at 6-2, 200 pounds. He's a good, not great skater. He plays solid, not exceptional defense. And he can move the puck up the ice, but mostly plays a conservative style. Like many Swiss, he would need to prove to NHL clubs he's committed to playing in North America before anyone spends a pick on him, but there's enough there we think that he should draw some interest.
53. Lukas Sedlak, C Ceske Budejovice (CZE- Jr.)- Czech pivot scored 14 goals, 27 points in 47 games with Budejovice's U20 team this season. Industrious and plays with passion and intensity, but lacks the elite skills and natural creativity to present the kind of upside that excites NHL clubs. Played well in the Ivan Hlinka for Czech Republic, but his production on a junior squad was pretty average all things considered. He's an effective two-way player and could develop into something as a lower-line guy, but lacks the kind of dynamic presence that will earn him a lot of attention leading up to the draft.
60. Norman Hauner, RW Koln (Germany)- He's an older player with a December 1991 birthdate, but B2011DW loved this guy's game at the WJC. He's not very big, but plays bigger than his 5-11, 176-pouund listed vitals. He skates well, though has a short choppy stride that he could stand to lengthen. He manages to get from A to B, however and plays a real high-energy, opportunistic game. Hauner was one of the more noticeable forwards on a weak German entry in Buffalo. He's an obvious longshot, but you never know- when the team needed a goal or a big play, he was usually involved, along with fellow overager Marcel Noebels.
91. Oula Palve, C Jyvaskyla Jr. (FIN)- Little guy is fast, shifty, creative and tenacious. Another overager who was passed up in the last draft, but if he can add some mass and strength, might be worth a look as a late-round option. Can really fly and brings a high hockey IQ to the mix along with a passion for the game and willingness to get his nose dirty. Score 18 goals and 40 points in 32 games and then tore it up in the J20 playoffs with 2 goals and 9 points in just 4 games. This guy can play, and like Perhonen and Auvinen, the Bruins will have gotten a good, long look at him, so you never know.
104. Martin Gernat, D Kosice (SVK- Jr.)- Possibly one of the more underrated players on Central's list, and he firmly belongs in the sleeper category based on his ranking. RLR scout Radim Jelinek gave Gernat a strong review in an interview we did with him earlier this season. Gernat is 6-4, but lacks the weight and strength to be all that effective physically right now, but sees the ice well and plays a strong positional game. He's got some legitimate upside as a passer and puck mover and he's going to develop a powerful shot when he reaches his physical maturity.
NR- Richard Ullberg, G SaiPa Jr. (FIN- Jr.)- What the hell happened to this guy? Like Perhonen, Ullberg is the stereotypical Finnish butterfly goalie with size and a wide stance who takes up huge portions of the net and brings terrific reflexes and blocking/recovery abilities to the table. He started strong in some international competition, but faded fast and the wheels completely came off as his season on the HIFK J20 season progressed (.887 save percentage, 3.35 GAA in 15 GP). Ullberg was dominant as a 15- and 16-year-old, so scouts are left scratching their heads over his disastrous season. Did he peak too soon and this sieve what Ullberg really is, OR- do you spend a late pick on him in hopes that he gets his head back on straight and gets back on the developmental track. If you believe the latter, you could end up with a steal of a prospect, because he certainly has the physical attributes to be a top prospect. It's one gamble that just might be worth taking, but only if a team thinks he can pull it together with some good coaching and handling. (EDIT- See comment section for an update on Ullberg's status)
Well, that's a wrap on the European list.
We'll let this percolate a bit and then be back with some notes on a few key fallers like Brandon Saad and others with an attempt to explain what is going on with him after having talked to several people about his stalled development.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
European draft prospects 2010-11 roundup
B2011DW has looked at the top (in our view) draft eligible players all three of the CHL's leagues and the NCAA class, so for this post, we're going to fly across the Atlantic to see how the European prospects are faring.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Mock draft results: More fantasy than reality, but fun
Participated in a seven-round mock NHL draft last month on Hockey's Future Boards, hosted by the member called "Cup" as the GM of the Boston Bruins. Cup does this every year and he tries to bring in as many informed folks as he can via invite to make the picks.
You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.
Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.
Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.
So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.
Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.
Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.
Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.
Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.
Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.
Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.
Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.
Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.
Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.
Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube
Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.
Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.
Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!
Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal
Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.
Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.
Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.
You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.
Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.
Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.
So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.
Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.
Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.
Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.
Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.
Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.
Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.
Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.
Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.
Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.
Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube
Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.
Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.
Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!
Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal
Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.
Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.
Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
2011 draft Goalie roundup: J. Gibson, Perhonen headline class
Earlier, we talked about what the acquisition of Anton Khudobin by the Boston Bruins on trade deadline day might mean for the team's approach to the goaltending position at the 2011 NHL Draft.
Here is a quick rundown of some of the better options available in the draft. Given that the Bruins have a strongly-established tandem in Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask, getting help at the position is not a pressing need. That said, the system lacked a dependable option for the immediacy, should the Bruins have any injury issues in net, which thankfully, they have not. Khudobin appears to address that need between now and the end of the season, but his future with Boston is very much up in the air if in fact he is a Group 6 unrestricted free agent.
Our belief is that the Bruins won't be inclined to take a goaltender in the first three, maybe four rounds of the 2011 unless they simply cannot pass on the value available to them. One caveat to this theory is Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen, who could be a goalie the B's will try to get for several reasons not the least of which is the cooperation agreement they have with his senior team Jyvaskyla JYP of the Finnish SM-Liiga. Perhonen has played very well for JYP's Under-20 junior team, posting a 2.57 GAA and .927 save percentage. He was Finland's third goalie at the 2011 WJC, and though he didn't play, looked good in practices as a Rask clone- tall (6-3), lean (170), extremely quick and fundamentally sound.The problem with the Bruins getting Perhonen is that the proverbial cat is out of the bag with this kid. If the B's were hoping that their close relationship and knowledge of him might be more of a secret that would give them an edge at draft time, that theory is out the window, as Perhonen has played well for Finland in the international tourneys this season and will likely further elevate his profile at the World Under-18s next month. If the Bruins are going to land him, they would probably need to do so in the second round, and the value of that pick may not warrant it being spent on yet another developmental goalie project albeit with the kind of promise Perhonen brings.
Here is a look at some of the rest of the options for the 2011 as far as goalies go:
John Gibson, U.S. NTDP (USHL)-- The Pennsylvania native has played excellent hockey this year for Team USA and will attend University of Michigan. He's very similar in style and substance to Jack Campbell, and like USA's international star, has the ability to play a very composed game when the pressure is highest. Gibson is big, athletic and refined; the prototypical modern netminder, but Campbell's OHL struggles could serve to hurt Gibson's chances of being picked in the top-20 of this class. More and more, teams are becoming disenchanted with taking goalies so high when that position is becoming such a wildcard in terms of player development and timelines- with late-round picks flourishing more and more while high-profile kids at 18 flameout. Gibson could go in the bottom 10 picks of the opening round, but is a solid second-round bet at the very least. He was Central Scouting's No. 1 North American goalie in their midterm rankings.
Samu Perhonen, JYP Jyvaskyla (Finland- Jr.)-- Central's top European netminder at midterm has been covered above, but he's got perhaps the greatest upside of any goaltender in this class. One NHL scout very familiar with him oozed about his technical excellence, mental toughness and mature game despite being a few days short of 18. Don't expect him to be on the board very long in June. His last name translates into the word 'butterfly' so like Swede Jesper Fasth last year, this kid is the most appropriately named prospect in the 2011 class.
Magnus Hellberg, Almtuna (SWE-2)-- At 6-5, 185 pounds, this Swede blots out the sun when he's in full gear standing in between the pipes. That said, he's as intriguing a prospect as any in this solid, if unheralded group. He's playing in Sweden's second division or Allsvenskan, and put up hellacious numbers- a 2.01 GAA and .936 save percentage this season with 5 whitewashes. Don't be surprised if this netminder, who goes side-to-side extremely well, ends up being a darkhorse who pushes into the second round and challenges Gibson and Perhonen for supremacy, because his ceiling is extremely high. We've been slow to come around on him here at B2011DW, but no longer. This guy is the real deal and rising rapidly.
Christopher Gibson, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)-- Another native of Finland who is the son of a British father and Finnish mother came to North America several years ago to play for the Notre Dame Hounds of Saskatchewan, playing on the midget national championship team alongside Jaden Schwartz. Like his American counterpart with the same last name, he's got a big frame and moves extremely well. He struggled in the CHL Top Prospects Game, but has played some real good hockey for one of the Q's weaker clubs this season.
David Honzik, Victoriaville (QMJHL)-- Another European who left the Czech Republic for North American major junior, Honzik has played well enough for the Tigres to be a factor on draft day, though he's a bit of a wildcard who could slip down a round or two. It's not that he doesn't possess upside, it's just that when all is said and done, he could get lost in the shuffle a bit from the players ahead of him in the rankings. He takes up a large portion of the net and is a solid butterfly goalie, but needs to work on keeping himself upright when he goes down and making sure his stick is flush and pads level. He's been beaten on pucks that go through him when he's in position to make the save. He has a lot of raw potential, though.
Matej Machovsky, Brampton (OHL)-- This 17-year-old Czech was originally taken by the Guelph Storm in last summer's CHL Import Draft, but was playing sparingly and moved over to Brampton, where his game has propelled him into serious draft discussions. He didn't get into the Top Prospects Game, but probably should have been there given how well he's played since joining Brampton. The rangy netminder is cat-quick and brings excellent quickness and athleticism to the mix.
Jaroslav Pavelka, Hradec Kralove (Czech Jr.)-- The best of the Czech goalies to stay home for his draft season, Pavelka is extremely raw at this stage but has the size (6-2), athleticism and upside to be a solid mid-round pick in the draft with long-term developmental potential. His technique needs a considerable amount of work, but he's extremely competitive, according to Red Line Report European scout Radim Jelinek, who has watched him closely this season. He has all the tools to be an NHL goaltender so long as the team that drafts him is willing to invest patience and a lot of work in teasing out the best in him. With his willingness to work, he may be one of the more promising, yet stealthy options in this class of goalies. It will be interesting to see where he goes. He has a .926 save percentage and 2.60 GAA as Hradec Kralove Under-18's workhorse puckstopper.
Richard Ullberg, HIFK Helsinki (Finland Jr.)-- What happened? Ullberg was considered Finland's best in class coming into the season, and after a solid start, his play has hit the skids. Eclipsed by Perhonen, Ullberg's development has hit a rough patch, falling to the bottom of Central's midseason Euro goalie list. He's a typical product of the Finnish goalie factory- big, skilled, technical butterfly goalie who squares up to the shooter and doesn't give up much of the net. But, he's struggled mightily and dropping like a stone. Could be one of those later round picks who rebounds in a big way and becomes one of those ubiquitous "steals" you're always hearing about.
Michael Houser, London (OHL)-- Passed over last season, Houser will likely get a call on draft day this time around given how well he's played this season for the young, rebuilding Knights. He was only two days away from being the youngest player in the 2010 NHL Draft with a September 13 1992 birthdate, so drafting him would not be a major roll of the dice. His GAA is high because of the amount of goals his team gives up, but his save percentage of .905 is solid and he's a battler who probably should have at least gotten a seventh-round call last June. Given Boston's familiarity with London in terms of keeping tabs on Jared Knight, might Houser be a late-round option for the B's?
We believe that his play has earned him serious consideration this time around as London's starter, beating out Anaheim prospect Igor Bobkov. He did get invited to the Vancouver Canucks rookie camp in the fall, but didn't get a contract offer, so like Boston's Craig Cunningham, who attended Rangers camp in 2009, Houser could be a guy who ends up with someone else on draft day. He's from Pennsylvania- the Pittsburgh area- and grew up a Penguins and Steelers fan. He is a great story as a young man who overcame 16 surgeries as a youngster to repair bilateral club feet. You can read one account of Houser's inspiring journey here in the London Free Press. We're not sure how high a pick Houser will end up being, but he's spent a season proving himself as a starter by battling hard, making the tough saves and keeping his team, which underwent huge changes via trades, in the OHL playoff picture.
While by no means a comprehensive list of available goalies, this list should at least whet the appetite, and you can rest assured that the draft watch will be back with updates and more in-depth profiles on other goaltenders not mentioned here. In the coming weeks, we'll revisit the list and add some of the guys who didn't make this first cut likke Max Lagace, Tadeas Galansky , Steve Michalek and Matt McNeely to name a few.
Here is a quick rundown of some of the better options available in the draft. Given that the Bruins have a strongly-established tandem in Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask, getting help at the position is not a pressing need. That said, the system lacked a dependable option for the immediacy, should the Bruins have any injury issues in net, which thankfully, they have not. Khudobin appears to address that need between now and the end of the season, but his future with Boston is very much up in the air if in fact he is a Group 6 unrestricted free agent.
Our belief is that the Bruins won't be inclined to take a goaltender in the first three, maybe four rounds of the 2011 unless they simply cannot pass on the value available to them. One caveat to this theory is Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen, who could be a goalie the B's will try to get for several reasons not the least of which is the cooperation agreement they have with his senior team Jyvaskyla JYP of the Finnish SM-Liiga. Perhonen has played very well for JYP's Under-20 junior team, posting a 2.57 GAA and .927 save percentage. He was Finland's third goalie at the 2011 WJC, and though he didn't play, looked good in practices as a Rask clone- tall (6-3), lean (170), extremely quick and fundamentally sound.The problem with the Bruins getting Perhonen is that the proverbial cat is out of the bag with this kid. If the B's were hoping that their close relationship and knowledge of him might be more of a secret that would give them an edge at draft time, that theory is out the window, as Perhonen has played well for Finland in the international tourneys this season and will likely further elevate his profile at the World Under-18s next month. If the Bruins are going to land him, they would probably need to do so in the second round, and the value of that pick may not warrant it being spent on yet another developmental goalie project albeit with the kind of promise Perhonen brings.
Here is a look at some of the rest of the options for the 2011 as far as goalies go:
John Gibson, U.S. NTDP (USHL)-- The Pennsylvania native has played excellent hockey this year for Team USA and will attend University of Michigan. He's very similar in style and substance to Jack Campbell, and like USA's international star, has the ability to play a very composed game when the pressure is highest. Gibson is big, athletic and refined; the prototypical modern netminder, but Campbell's OHL struggles could serve to hurt Gibson's chances of being picked in the top-20 of this class. More and more, teams are becoming disenchanted with taking goalies so high when that position is becoming such a wildcard in terms of player development and timelines- with late-round picks flourishing more and more while high-profile kids at 18 flameout. Gibson could go in the bottom 10 picks of the opening round, but is a solid second-round bet at the very least. He was Central Scouting's No. 1 North American goalie in their midterm rankings.
Samu Perhonen, JYP Jyvaskyla (Finland- Jr.)-- Central's top European netminder at midterm has been covered above, but he's got perhaps the greatest upside of any goaltender in this class. One NHL scout very familiar with him oozed about his technical excellence, mental toughness and mature game despite being a few days short of 18. Don't expect him to be on the board very long in June. His last name translates into the word 'butterfly' so like Swede Jesper Fasth last year, this kid is the most appropriately named prospect in the 2011 class.
Magnus Hellberg, Almtuna (SWE-2)-- At 6-5, 185 pounds, this Swede blots out the sun when he's in full gear standing in between the pipes. That said, he's as intriguing a prospect as any in this solid, if unheralded group. He's playing in Sweden's second division or Allsvenskan, and put up hellacious numbers- a 2.01 GAA and .936 save percentage this season with 5 whitewashes. Don't be surprised if this netminder, who goes side-to-side extremely well, ends up being a darkhorse who pushes into the second round and challenges Gibson and Perhonen for supremacy, because his ceiling is extremely high. We've been slow to come around on him here at B2011DW, but no longer. This guy is the real deal and rising rapidly.
Christopher Gibson, Chicoutimi (QMJHL)-- Another native of Finland who is the son of a British father and Finnish mother came to North America several years ago to play for the Notre Dame Hounds of Saskatchewan, playing on the midget national championship team alongside Jaden Schwartz. Like his American counterpart with the same last name, he's got a big frame and moves extremely well. He struggled in the CHL Top Prospects Game, but has played some real good hockey for one of the Q's weaker clubs this season.
David Honzik, Victoriaville (QMJHL)-- Another European who left the Czech Republic for North American major junior, Honzik has played well enough for the Tigres to be a factor on draft day, though he's a bit of a wildcard who could slip down a round or two. It's not that he doesn't possess upside, it's just that when all is said and done, he could get lost in the shuffle a bit from the players ahead of him in the rankings. He takes up a large portion of the net and is a solid butterfly goalie, but needs to work on keeping himself upright when he goes down and making sure his stick is flush and pads level. He's been beaten on pucks that go through him when he's in position to make the save. He has a lot of raw potential, though.
Matej Machovsky, Brampton (OHL)-- This 17-year-old Czech was originally taken by the Guelph Storm in last summer's CHL Import Draft, but was playing sparingly and moved over to Brampton, where his game has propelled him into serious draft discussions. He didn't get into the Top Prospects Game, but probably should have been there given how well he's played since joining Brampton. The rangy netminder is cat-quick and brings excellent quickness and athleticism to the mix.
Jaroslav Pavelka, Hradec Kralove (Czech Jr.)-- The best of the Czech goalies to stay home for his draft season, Pavelka is extremely raw at this stage but has the size (6-2), athleticism and upside to be a solid mid-round pick in the draft with long-term developmental potential. His technique needs a considerable amount of work, but he's extremely competitive, according to Red Line Report European scout Radim Jelinek, who has watched him closely this season. He has all the tools to be an NHL goaltender so long as the team that drafts him is willing to invest patience and a lot of work in teasing out the best in him. With his willingness to work, he may be one of the more promising, yet stealthy options in this class of goalies. It will be interesting to see where he goes. He has a .926 save percentage and 2.60 GAA as Hradec Kralove Under-18's workhorse puckstopper.
Richard Ullberg, HIFK Helsinki (Finland Jr.)-- What happened? Ullberg was considered Finland's best in class coming into the season, and after a solid start, his play has hit the skids. Eclipsed by Perhonen, Ullberg's development has hit a rough patch, falling to the bottom of Central's midseason Euro goalie list. He's a typical product of the Finnish goalie factory- big, skilled, technical butterfly goalie who squares up to the shooter and doesn't give up much of the net. But, he's struggled mightily and dropping like a stone. Could be one of those later round picks who rebounds in a big way and becomes one of those ubiquitous "steals" you're always hearing about.
Michael Houser, London (OHL)-- Passed over last season, Houser will likely get a call on draft day this time around given how well he's played this season for the young, rebuilding Knights. He was only two days away from being the youngest player in the 2010 NHL Draft with a September 13 1992 birthdate, so drafting him would not be a major roll of the dice. His GAA is high because of the amount of goals his team gives up, but his save percentage of .905 is solid and he's a battler who probably should have at least gotten a seventh-round call last June. Given Boston's familiarity with London in terms of keeping tabs on Jared Knight, might Houser be a late-round option for the B's?
We believe that his play has earned him serious consideration this time around as London's starter, beating out Anaheim prospect Igor Bobkov. He did get invited to the Vancouver Canucks rookie camp in the fall, but didn't get a contract offer, so like Boston's Craig Cunningham, who attended Rangers camp in 2009, Houser could be a guy who ends up with someone else on draft day. He's from Pennsylvania- the Pittsburgh area- and grew up a Penguins and Steelers fan. He is a great story as a young man who overcame 16 surgeries as a youngster to repair bilateral club feet. You can read one account of Houser's inspiring journey here in the London Free Press. We're not sure how high a pick Houser will end up being, but he's spent a season proving himself as a starter by battling hard, making the tough saves and keeping his team, which underwent huge changes via trades, in the OHL playoff picture.
While by no means a comprehensive list of available goalies, this list should at least whet the appetite, and you can rest assured that the draft watch will be back with updates and more in-depth profiles on other goaltenders not mentioned here. In the coming weeks, we'll revisit the list and add some of the guys who didn't make this first cut likke Max Lagace, Tadeas Galansky , Steve Michalek and Matt McNeely to name a few.
What does Khudobin trade mean for the goalie position in 2011 draft?
The Boston Bruins made an interesting under-the-radar acquisition yesterday at the trade deadline, moving underwhelming defenseman (and impending RFA) Jeff Penner and the RFA rights to Mikko Lehtonen, he of the excellent SEL season of more than a point-per-game for Kazakhstan-born Russian goalie Anton Khudobin yesterday. As of now, this looks like a high-upside move in that Peter Chiarelli unloaded two prospects who weren't a part of Boston's future going forward, while acquiring a veteran goalie who could be.
What intrigues as it pertains to the 2011 NHL Draft is whether the Bruins will spend any of their seven selections on help between the pipes? That is a question we will attempt to address here, but first, some analysis on the newest Bruin:
The most immediate reason for Khudobin is pretty simple: Boston's AHL affiliate in Providence needed a shakeup in net. Veteran Nolan Schaefer, acquired in the off-season for stability, has not played to expectations, forcing Rob Murray and co. to go with the combination of rookie Mike Hutchinson and the inexperienced Matt Dalton more than they wanted to.
"Hutch" has a lot of potential, but he's not ready to shoulder the load in the AHL. He played pretty well for the Reading Royals of the ECHL,and has at times alternated between looking very good in Providence and simply being in over his head. Dalton, who lost the Providence spot to Hutch at the beginning of the year, swapped out with the rookie pro in January and played very well early on before hitting the skids and going back down to Reading. He's a gamer, but doesn't figure to be much more than a minor league journeyman goalie. With Schaefer playing poorly, and no other viable options in the system for the AHL club, the B's appear to have hit on a player who could stabilize the position and allow Providence at least to compete for a playoff spot.
Khudobin, born in Kazakhstan but a member of Team Russia in international competition, has some similarities to Tim Thomas in that he lacks the prototypical size that NHL teams expect in modern goalies and plays more of an unconventional (read: flopping, flailing) style than many of the technical, butterfliers of today. Like Thomas, Khudobin is a character known for his battling, never-give-up-on-the-play antics, and like Thomas early in his NHL career, acquitted himself very well in limited action with the Wild, but has never been given a shot to take the ball and run with it at the highest level. Could Khudobin be another NHL success story in waiting?
There is the potential to keep this Cinderella tale from unfolding in Boston, however.
Although CapGeek.com has him listed as a RFA when his current contract expires this summer, Khudobin clearly meets the criteria for Group 6 Unrestricted Free Agency: He'll be 25 when his deal is up, has at least three full professional seasons under his belt and has played less than 28 NHL games combined in regular season and playoffs (and barring catastrophe for Boston in net, he won't exceed that number). Will the Bruins be able to convince a player who was rumored to have talked of going over to the KHL in the summer where he can be a starter to stay in North America, even when he's behind two more terrific options in Thomas and Tuukka Rask? Now, assuming that he is a UFA, the Bruins will have to weigh the desire to keep him in the system while fighting off potential suitors in both the NHL and KHL; for any team who has scouted him and sees him as viable option for them, even if in backup status, they'll have a leg up on the Bruins, who have a clearly established 1-2 goalie hierarchy.
For the time being, Khudobin, who once faced 84 shots while a member of the Saskatoon Blades (where his teammates included former Bruins prospect Wacey Rabbit, one of the all-time great hockey names) should give Providence some legitimate puckstopping ability,freeing the younger guys to develop without the added pressure of feeling they have to play mistake-free hockey. Schaefer has been a huge disappointment, and Hutch, while he should be lauded for the job he has done at times, needs to be set up for success, not failure.
All of this raises interesting questions about whether Khudobin, especially if he is retained, will affect the team's strategy for picking a goaltender in the upcoming draft.
Hutchinson was a third-round pick in 2008, and last year, the B's grabbed a nice value selection in the sixth round with Zane Gothberg, a long-term but high-payoff potential prospect who will probably play another season in the USHL in 2011-12 before moving on to the University of North Dakota. That will depend on what junior Brad Eidsness and sophomore Aaron Dell do, but Gothberg has been a backup with the Fargo Force this year and could use a season as starter before he moves on to the NCAA.
Based on Khudobin's performance from here out, the B's will have an idea as to whether they can and will commit to him. He provides legitimate insurance in the system as a goalie with albeit limited, but impressive NHL experience (4-1, 1.39 GAA, .955 save percentage, 1 shutout) in six games and is a nice third goalie/emergency option for the team if the unthinkable happened to its top-two players in net.
Assuming the Bruins were to commit to Khudobin and convince him to sign with Boston rather than hit free agency (a pretty bad assumption considering his potential leverage on the open market and fielding offers from both NHL and KHL teams) you won't see much in the way of goalies picked in the 2011 draft unless a value pick falls into their lap, much the way Gothberg did last June.
With the exception of Bill Ranford way back in 1985, Boston has always had better success taking goaltenders later on in the draft. Need we remind anyone of the Evgeni Ryabchikov disaster? Hannu Toivonen was also one of the great first-round disappointments for this team, but at least he made it to the NHL. Even second-rounder Paxton Schafer, 47th overall in 1995, was a bust for the Bruins, lending more credence to the theory that they don't need to draft goalies with high picks.
Rask was a first-rounder, but selected by Toronto, even though the Bruins were prepared to take him at 22nd in 2005 had the Leafs not snaked him with one pick prior. The Bruins have had only a limited amount of goalies groomed and developed through their system, John Grahame being one of them, a late round pick taken just 12 spots after Thomas in 1994's ninth round. Even late 90s backup Rob Tallas was an undrafted free agent, so the team has learned over the years that spending high picks on goalies isn't the best use of capital. And then of course, Andrew Raycroft, the last Bruin to win the Calder Trophy as NHL Rookie of the Year and the piece that went to Toronto for Rask (infamously) in 2006, was a fifth-round selection in 1998, the 135th player taken that year and arguably the best to come out of that moribund class of goalies. Raycroft was just the 12th goalie picked in that draft, but he's risen above all others with only Antero Nittymaki (6th round) to challenge the Rayzor for 1998 goalie supremacy (though that's not saying much).
So there you have it. The Bruins may or may not pick a goalie in June, but even if they do, it will likely come later, and only if they assess that the player in question carries the kind of value that makes it worthwhile. In our assessment, there is just one netminder in this class who might buck that trend, and that would be Samu Perhonen of JyP Jr. in Finland.
This post has run long, so we'll be back today with an analysis of Perhonen and other goalie options for the 2011 draft to close out this argument. But, suffice to say that Anton Khudobin addresses an immediate organizational need with some intriguing longer-term potential. The B's may have to get creative to keep him in the mix, however. And we won't know whether they'll even want to do that until we see him in action for the Baby B's.
What intrigues as it pertains to the 2011 NHL Draft is whether the Bruins will spend any of their seven selections on help between the pipes? That is a question we will attempt to address here, but first, some analysis on the newest Bruin:
The most immediate reason for Khudobin is pretty simple: Boston's AHL affiliate in Providence needed a shakeup in net. Veteran Nolan Schaefer, acquired in the off-season for stability, has not played to expectations, forcing Rob Murray and co. to go with the combination of rookie Mike Hutchinson and the inexperienced Matt Dalton more than they wanted to.
"Hutch" has a lot of potential, but he's not ready to shoulder the load in the AHL. He played pretty well for the Reading Royals of the ECHL,and has at times alternated between looking very good in Providence and simply being in over his head. Dalton, who lost the Providence spot to Hutch at the beginning of the year, swapped out with the rookie pro in January and played very well early on before hitting the skids and going back down to Reading. He's a gamer, but doesn't figure to be much more than a minor league journeyman goalie. With Schaefer playing poorly, and no other viable options in the system for the AHL club, the B's appear to have hit on a player who could stabilize the position and allow Providence at least to compete for a playoff spot.
Khudobin, born in Kazakhstan but a member of Team Russia in international competition, has some similarities to Tim Thomas in that he lacks the prototypical size that NHL teams expect in modern goalies and plays more of an unconventional (read: flopping, flailing) style than many of the technical, butterfliers of today. Like Thomas, Khudobin is a character known for his battling, never-give-up-on-the-play antics, and like Thomas early in his NHL career, acquitted himself very well in limited action with the Wild, but has never been given a shot to take the ball and run with it at the highest level. Could Khudobin be another NHL success story in waiting?
There is the potential to keep this Cinderella tale from unfolding in Boston, however.
Although CapGeek.com has him listed as a RFA when his current contract expires this summer, Khudobin clearly meets the criteria for Group 6 Unrestricted Free Agency: He'll be 25 when his deal is up, has at least three full professional seasons under his belt and has played less than 28 NHL games combined in regular season and playoffs (and barring catastrophe for Boston in net, he won't exceed that number). Will the Bruins be able to convince a player who was rumored to have talked of going over to the KHL in the summer where he can be a starter to stay in North America, even when he's behind two more terrific options in Thomas and Tuukka Rask? Now, assuming that he is a UFA, the Bruins will have to weigh the desire to keep him in the system while fighting off potential suitors in both the NHL and KHL; for any team who has scouted him and sees him as viable option for them, even if in backup status, they'll have a leg up on the Bruins, who have a clearly established 1-2 goalie hierarchy.
For the time being, Khudobin, who once faced 84 shots while a member of the Saskatoon Blades (where his teammates included former Bruins prospect Wacey Rabbit, one of the all-time great hockey names) should give Providence some legitimate puckstopping ability,freeing the younger guys to develop without the added pressure of feeling they have to play mistake-free hockey. Schaefer has been a huge disappointment, and Hutch, while he should be lauded for the job he has done at times, needs to be set up for success, not failure.
All of this raises interesting questions about whether Khudobin, especially if he is retained, will affect the team's strategy for picking a goaltender in the upcoming draft.
Hutchinson was a third-round pick in 2008, and last year, the B's grabbed a nice value selection in the sixth round with Zane Gothberg, a long-term but high-payoff potential prospect who will probably play another season in the USHL in 2011-12 before moving on to the University of North Dakota. That will depend on what junior Brad Eidsness and sophomore Aaron Dell do, but Gothberg has been a backup with the Fargo Force this year and could use a season as starter before he moves on to the NCAA.
Based on Khudobin's performance from here out, the B's will have an idea as to whether they can and will commit to him. He provides legitimate insurance in the system as a goalie with albeit limited, but impressive NHL experience (4-1, 1.39 GAA, .955 save percentage, 1 shutout) in six games and is a nice third goalie/emergency option for the team if the unthinkable happened to its top-two players in net.
Assuming the Bruins were to commit to Khudobin and convince him to sign with Boston rather than hit free agency (a pretty bad assumption considering his potential leverage on the open market and fielding offers from both NHL and KHL teams) you won't see much in the way of goalies picked in the 2011 draft unless a value pick falls into their lap, much the way Gothberg did last June.
With the exception of Bill Ranford way back in 1985, Boston has always had better success taking goaltenders later on in the draft. Need we remind anyone of the Evgeni Ryabchikov disaster? Hannu Toivonen was also one of the great first-round disappointments for this team, but at least he made it to the NHL. Even second-rounder Paxton Schafer, 47th overall in 1995, was a bust for the Bruins, lending more credence to the theory that they don't need to draft goalies with high picks.
Rask was a first-rounder, but selected by Toronto, even though the Bruins were prepared to take him at 22nd in 2005 had the Leafs not snaked him with one pick prior. The Bruins have had only a limited amount of goalies groomed and developed through their system, John Grahame being one of them, a late round pick taken just 12 spots after Thomas in 1994's ninth round. Even late 90s backup Rob Tallas was an undrafted free agent, so the team has learned over the years that spending high picks on goalies isn't the best use of capital. And then of course, Andrew Raycroft, the last Bruin to win the Calder Trophy as NHL Rookie of the Year and the piece that went to Toronto for Rask (infamously) in 2006, was a fifth-round selection in 1998, the 135th player taken that year and arguably the best to come out of that moribund class of goalies. Raycroft was just the 12th goalie picked in that draft, but he's risen above all others with only Antero Nittymaki (6th round) to challenge the Rayzor for 1998 goalie supremacy (though that's not saying much).
So there you have it. The Bruins may or may not pick a goalie in June, but even if they do, it will likely come later, and only if they assess that the player in question carries the kind of value that makes it worthwhile. In our assessment, there is just one netminder in this class who might buck that trend, and that would be Samu Perhonen of JyP Jr. in Finland.
This post has run long, so we'll be back today with an analysis of Perhonen and other goalie options for the 2011 draft to close out this argument. But, suffice to say that Anton Khudobin addresses an immediate organizational need with some intriguing longer-term potential. The B's may have to get creative to keep him in the mix, however. And we won't know whether they'll even want to do that until we see him in action for the Baby B's.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Central Scouting's mid-season rankings: European goalies
This is the last post for now on Central Scouting's mid-season rankings, and in it, we'll look at a few of the European goalie options available.
At the top of the list, not surprisingly, is Finland's Samu Perhonen, who is another prototype big, athletic butterfly goalie. He was the third goalie in Finland's WJC time, so he didn't get any playing time, but benefited from being around the team and practicing with them. He reminds me of Tuukka Rask in terms of his fundamentals and style and that's just from watching him in practice. He keeps his torso upright when he drops into a compact butterfly, and flares his pads out at 90-degree angles to completely take the lower ice away. He recovers well and seems to get a nice, smooth push when moving side-to-side. One thing I noticed is that he doesn't favor one side over the other. So, in summary, Perhonen is a sound, technical player with some upside.
Perhonen also plays for JYP Jyvaskyla of the SM-Liiga, which the Boston Bruins have a working agreement/partnership with. If the B's scouts are around that team, this could be a guy that they might actually spend a top-three round pick on if their guys like him enough. Keep an eye on Perhonen's progress, because we know that two years ago, Mikko Koskinen was on their target list as well, but the Islanders grabbed him with the first pick of the 2nd round.
Here's what one NHL scout based in Europe (Finland) I ran into in Buffalo had to say about Central's top Euro n net: "Samu Perhonen is very good goalie; quick reflexes and plays steady without losing his focus. I don't see any flaws with him, and he just needs to play and get more experience."
After Sweden's Stefan Steen (sorry, folks- I got nuttin' on this guy, but rest assured- not for long), Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka is next. Pretty flexible player with good quickness and able to cover a lot of net with his reflexes and elasticity. A solid, all-around goalie who uses the butterfly to good effect and is able to make big saves. Red Line Report has a nice write up on Pavelka in their October issue, and their Czech scout is one of the best in the business.
At 4 and 7 are two goalies who were in the WJC.
Swiss goalie Benjamin Conz had another strong tourney for the second year in a row. He kept his team in every game and only looked shaky against the Finns in the preliminary round. He's short and heavy, which could account for why NHL teams have passed on him. But, the guy can stop the puck, and he's likely sent a strong message that he's worth a mid- or late-round flyer at least. If he can get a little lighter, he's got a chance. His technique needs work, but he's a battler and gamer who just knows how to make the big stop.
At the other end of the spectrum is Norway's Lars Volden, who was so unbelievably bad against Canada, you can hardly even put it into words. Yes, it was only one game, and it happened against a powerhouse in Canada after the starter pulled himself, but Volden immediately allowed several bad goals and was shaky even when Canada called off the dogs. It was brutal to watch. But, he's big at 6-3 and has some quickness- I just didn't see it. He was passed up last year, and can't imagine anyone will pick him after the WJC fiasco.
Finally, Finnish goalie Richard Ullberg was the guy expected to be the top goalie for this class out of Europe before the start of the season, and he's got some potential as a similar option to Perhonen. Perhonen's play has elevated him to the top spot and rightfully so, but some might argue that Ullberg's better. He's 6-3, 182 and plays for HIFK Helsinki. got the size and athleticism as well.
That's a wrap. Watch for WJC scouting reports, more scout interviews on some of the Central rankings (esp. the more curious ones) and more in the coming days.
At the top of the list, not surprisingly, is Finland's Samu Perhonen, who is another prototype big, athletic butterfly goalie. He was the third goalie in Finland's WJC time, so he didn't get any playing time, but benefited from being around the team and practicing with them. He reminds me of Tuukka Rask in terms of his fundamentals and style and that's just from watching him in practice. He keeps his torso upright when he drops into a compact butterfly, and flares his pads out at 90-degree angles to completely take the lower ice away. He recovers well and seems to get a nice, smooth push when moving side-to-side. One thing I noticed is that he doesn't favor one side over the other. So, in summary, Perhonen is a sound, technical player with some upside.
Perhonen also plays for JYP Jyvaskyla of the SM-Liiga, which the Boston Bruins have a working agreement/partnership with. If the B's scouts are around that team, this could be a guy that they might actually spend a top-three round pick on if their guys like him enough. Keep an eye on Perhonen's progress, because we know that two years ago, Mikko Koskinen was on their target list as well, but the Islanders grabbed him with the first pick of the 2nd round.
Here's what one NHL scout based in Europe (Finland) I ran into in Buffalo had to say about Central's top Euro n net: "Samu Perhonen is very good goalie; quick reflexes and plays steady without losing his focus. I don't see any flaws with him, and he just needs to play and get more experience."
After Sweden's Stefan Steen (sorry, folks- I got nuttin' on this guy, but rest assured- not for long), Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka is next. Pretty flexible player with good quickness and able to cover a lot of net with his reflexes and elasticity. A solid, all-around goalie who uses the butterfly to good effect and is able to make big saves. Red Line Report has a nice write up on Pavelka in their October issue, and their Czech scout is one of the best in the business.
At 4 and 7 are two goalies who were in the WJC.
Swiss goalie Benjamin Conz had another strong tourney for the second year in a row. He kept his team in every game and only looked shaky against the Finns in the preliminary round. He's short and heavy, which could account for why NHL teams have passed on him. But, the guy can stop the puck, and he's likely sent a strong message that he's worth a mid- or late-round flyer at least. If he can get a little lighter, he's got a chance. His technique needs work, but he's a battler and gamer who just knows how to make the big stop.
At the other end of the spectrum is Norway's Lars Volden, who was so unbelievably bad against Canada, you can hardly even put it into words. Yes, it was only one game, and it happened against a powerhouse in Canada after the starter pulled himself, but Volden immediately allowed several bad goals and was shaky even when Canada called off the dogs. It was brutal to watch. But, he's big at 6-3 and has some quickness- I just didn't see it. He was passed up last year, and can't imagine anyone will pick him after the WJC fiasco.
Finally, Finnish goalie Richard Ullberg was the guy expected to be the top goalie for this class out of Europe before the start of the season, and he's got some potential as a similar option to Perhonen. Perhonen's play has elevated him to the top spot and rightfully so, but some might argue that Ullberg's better. He's 6-3, 182 and plays for HIFK Helsinki. got the size and athleticism as well.
That's a wrap. Watch for WJC scouting reports, more scout interviews on some of the Central rankings (esp. the more curious ones) and more in the coming days.
Central Scouting's mid-season rankings: European skaters pt. 1
This post is just a teaser to get things going for today until I can return later with a more comprehensive look at some of the European skaters and goalies on Central Scouting's mid-season rankings, which came out Monday.
It goes without saying that this year is v 2.0 of the "Year of the Swede" which debuted in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. This crop may not have a Victor Hedman at the top in some views (most notably Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report- you can check out my interview with him where he addresses that here), but Adam Larsson is no slouch as a two-way defenseman and appears tailor-made for the New Jersey Devils, assuming they finish 30th and win the lottery. He makes a lot of sense for them, and after seeing Larsson at the WJC and a lot of Devils hockey since joining the New York Hockey Journal, I'm convinced that he'd be their No. 2 defender if he were playing for them right now.
Larsson is the top European skater and will cruise to top billing come June because there isn't anyone who will seriously threaten his standing between now and then. You'll read a more detailed post-WJC scouting report on him in the next few days, but I will say that he raised his stock in Buffalo/Niagara with his strong two-way play.
Second on the list is Finland winger Joel Armia, who has impressed a lot of people this year skating in the SM-Liiga for Assat. He got off to a pretty hot start, but has cooled since settling in. His WJC performance reminded of the same: he's was very good in his first two games against Team USA and Switzerland, showing off a fluid skating stride, long stick and moving the puck smartly. He didn't score (although he did have a goal negated vs. the Swiss that should have counted). But, starting with Germany, Armia's game went a little south. He started playing with less urgency and got lazy with his stick instead of putting his body on people and separating them from the puck. He's got some real potential and the skill level is there, but anyone talking about him being in the top-10 picks come June is probably going to be a little disappointed. I could see him going closer to 15, but inside the first 10 may be a stretch even with his outstanding 6-3, 190-pound size and upside.
That's some information on the top two from Europe, We'll be back later to discuss some (not all obviously) of the bigger names across the Atlantic. We'll try and look into Victor Rask's surprising fall down the rankings both on Central's list and that of an independent review such as Redline Report. We'll try to ID some sleepers as well and will look at some of the goalies, starting with Samu Perhonen, whose last name means "butterfly" in Finnish. He's this year's Jesper Fasth in terms of being appropriately named.
It goes without saying that this year is v 2.0 of the "Year of the Swede" which debuted in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft. This crop may not have a Victor Hedman at the top in some views (most notably Kyle Woodlief of Redline Report- you can check out my interview with him where he addresses that here), but Adam Larsson is no slouch as a two-way defenseman and appears tailor-made for the New Jersey Devils, assuming they finish 30th and win the lottery. He makes a lot of sense for them, and after seeing Larsson at the WJC and a lot of Devils hockey since joining the New York Hockey Journal, I'm convinced that he'd be their No. 2 defender if he were playing for them right now.
Larsson is the top European skater and will cruise to top billing come June because there isn't anyone who will seriously threaten his standing between now and then. You'll read a more detailed post-WJC scouting report on him in the next few days, but I will say that he raised his stock in Buffalo/Niagara with his strong two-way play.
Second on the list is Finland winger Joel Armia, who has impressed a lot of people this year skating in the SM-Liiga for Assat. He got off to a pretty hot start, but has cooled since settling in. His WJC performance reminded of the same: he's was very good in his first two games against Team USA and Switzerland, showing off a fluid skating stride, long stick and moving the puck smartly. He didn't score (although he did have a goal negated vs. the Swiss that should have counted). But, starting with Germany, Armia's game went a little south. He started playing with less urgency and got lazy with his stick instead of putting his body on people and separating them from the puck. He's got some real potential and the skill level is there, but anyone talking about him being in the top-10 picks come June is probably going to be a little disappointed. I could see him going closer to 15, but inside the first 10 may be a stretch even with his outstanding 6-3, 190-pound size and upside.
That's some information on the top two from Europe, We'll be back later to discuss some (not all obviously) of the bigger names across the Atlantic. We'll try and look into Victor Rask's surprising fall down the rankings both on Central's list and that of an independent review such as Redline Report. We'll try to ID some sleepers as well and will look at some of the goalies, starting with Samu Perhonen, whose last name means "butterfly" in Finnish. He's this year's Jesper Fasth in terms of being appropriately named.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Happy Boxing Day
This is a pre-emptive post before I head out tomorrow for the Canadian holiday Boxing Day.
If you're an American and you know about Boxing Day, chances are, you're either A. Have family from Canada or B. You're a hockey fan.
The great thing about Boxing Day is that it marks the beginning of the World Junior Championships every year. It may not be the best tourney to go and see the draft-eligibles, but it is the best exhibition of non-NHL talent every year.
So, ny busy day begins with a quick flight to Buffalo (I hope) and checking in at HSBC Arena pretty soon after touching down to catch the Germany-Switzerland game at 12:30. That will be followed by Canada-Russia at 4, and then the night cap- USA-Finland at 8.
Crazy day, but wouldn't have it any other way. As far as prospects for the 2011 draft are concerned, Tobias Rieder and Sven Bartschi are first up. Then it's Sean Couturier (the Russians brought a roster comprised almost entirely of 1991-birthdates, with the exception of Caps first-rounder Evgeny Kuznetsov). Like the USA, they're not a lot of fun watching if you're looking for guys in the 2011 draft class. Finland has Joel Armia, who looks like he's headed for the 1st round, goalie Samu Perhonen (don't know how much playing time he'll get).
Let the fun begin.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Central Scouting Preliminary Rankings: Europe
It's time to fly across the Atlantic Ocean for a little glimpse into the European buffet and compare the 2011 draft class against Central Scouting's overseas rankings.
Sweden, once again, is the NHL's volume dealer when it comes to imports. Between stud d-man Adam Larsson and forwards Victor Rask and Mika Zibanejad, the scary thing is, possibly the best Swede-- Kitchener forward Gabriel Landeskog, doesn't even count against the his native country's list because he's in the OHL. Between Larsson and Landeskog, we could be looking at two Swedes going 1-2 for the first time in, well, ever. The real strength of the Swedish group is their depth, and they could challenge '09 for the most Swedes ever taken in a single year.
I'm sure Sean Couturier and maybe even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will have something to say about that. But you never know with these things. It's all going to come down to who is picking first overall, and what their organizational philosophy is.
Finland has some nice offerings, too, mainly in the form of skilled power forward Joel Armia. Eastern Europe is a bit thin, but we'll cover some of the bases there as well, so buckle up and enjoy.
Adam Larsson tops the list from Sweden, and much has been written about the 6-3, 200-pound defenseman already. Despite what you hear, he's not really falling in the conventional sense-- it's just that he had such a standout SEL season as a 16-17-year-old, that the old scouting adage that there's no place to go but down from a performance like that holds true. He's still the same fluid skater with the big shot and the hands/vision/sense to run the power play and start the transition from defense to offense in an instant. He's now being nitpicked, and doesn't have the production he did a year ago, but make no mistake-- he's still one of the draft's big three.
Moving on, Jonas Brodin is No. 2 on the Central list from Sweden, and you can check out the B2011DW "A guy you should know" label for a more detailed post breaking down his game. Suffice to say that this blog space is not at all surprised that he'd be the No. 2 guy behind Larsson, but at the same time, not sure how Central can drop Victor Rask down to 4. Brodin is solid, a guy you win with, but he's not going to wow anyone either. Interesting selection.
Mika Zibanejad of the Djurgarden Jr. team is next. This guy has the size and skills, and from what I hear, is coming on after a sluggish start and mediocre Ivan Hlinka tourney in August. He's got amazing hands and when he's flying through the neutral zone, handling the puck at top speed and then wiring it top shelf, he becomes a scout's dream. He just needs to work on his intensity, consistency and for the love of Pete-- put some meat on those bones.
Leksand center Victor Rask is the preseason "hyped" player whose performance has not merited a place at the top, but (and he's not related to Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask, btw- the NHL player's a Finn and his brother, Joonas is a 2010 Nashville draft pick) should not be overlooked. He was a horse for Team Sweden last spring at the World Under-18s, and he has some real high-end skills. He looks to be suffering from the draft year malaise-- it happens. But, some team could end up stealing him if he falls too far past the 10-15 range (assuming he falls, that is)
Joachim Nermark rounds out the Sweden top-five and he's a legitimate scorer who probably deserves to be a little higher. He's seen action in the SEL this season and was one opportunistic scorer in the Ivan Hlinka. Keep an eye on him, because he might drop down a little but end up being one of those guys who shows up to his first NHL camp and surprises everyone with his skill and poise-- much like Marcus Johansson did for the Washington Capitals this past fall.
Other Swedes of note: offensive defenseman Oscar Klefbom (7), Rasmus Bengtsson (10), along with forwards Viktor Arvidsson (12), Victor Berglind (14).
Sliding over to Finland, Joel Armia deserves his spot at the top. He's the best Finnish prospect by a country mile, and his outstanding start against men in the SM-Liiga is moving him up draft boards in North America. He's got that nice 6-3 frame that will fill out in time, is a good skater for a big man and has magical hands and a finishing touch.
There isn't much depth in the Finland crop, although Mikael Granlund's younger brother Markus Granlund, is third on Central's list. Markus has nowhere near his older brother's innate hockey sense that saw him go top-10 to Minnesota in the June NHL draft, but he's a better skater. Like his bro- he's small. He turned some heads at the World Under-18s last April.
Finland has two interesting prospects in net-- the aptly named Samu Perhonen (which means 'butterfly' in Finnish) and Richard Ullberg. Perhonen plays for JYP Jr. which is interesting in that it is the club that the Bruins signed an transfer agreement with this year. You can bet that the B's are getting a nice look at Perhonen this season, and you wonder if he will end up hearing his name called at some point. At the goalie position, it will be all about value, and it is hardly worth discussing a netminder for Boston in the first three or four rounds, but we'll see where Perhonen grades out. Ullberg has gotten some mention on this blog previously for being that prototypical Finnish butterfly-style goalie with some quickness and upside.
Central's top player coming out of the Czech Republic is winger Dmitrij Jaskin, who plays for Slavia Praha (Prague) of the Czech Extraliga. He signed a four-year deal there rather than come to North America, so that will be something for NHL teams to note, but he goes hard to the net and plays that crashing kind of power forward game.
Vaclav Tomek at two is interesting, because Red Line Report had him 12th on their combined Czech Republic/Slovakia list. He's described as a good skater and hard worker/hustling two-way player, but the center lacks the creativity and hands to be considered a legitimate scoring option/top-six forward at the NHL level. Think Vladimir Sobotka without the sandpaper.
Lukas Kralik and Michael Svihalek, two of the more talented (but flawed) offensive Czechs in Red Line's view, are 8th and 10th.
In net, Jaroslav Pavelka is the top Czech on Central's list and has showed promise as a rangy, athletic goalie who is raw but has some nice long-term potential.
Slovak defenseman Peter Ceresnak heads that country's list-- he's a slightly smaller Martin Marincin with a little less offensive upside, but who plays a more aggressive, physical game. He can move the puck well, but is more of a stay-at-home shutdown guy who relishes contact and clearing the front of his net or stapling guys along the boards.
The best players from Denmark (Nicklas Jensen) and Germany (Tobias Rieder) are in the OHL, so not much to say about anyone on those respective lists for Central at present.
Maxim Shalunov is at the top of Russia's list, and again, the top Russians are all over in North America this season-- Vladislav Namestnikov, Alexander Khoklachev, Andrey Pedan, Andrei Markarov, Anton Zlobin and so on.
I talked to one scout recently who saw Shalunov in international play and this is what he said: "Classic Russian player; end-to-end all the time, very good skater. Not very creative, but knows how to go to the net."
Defenseman Zahar Arzamastsev was on the Russian squad that beat the CHL in the Subway Super Series (with two wins over the WHL after beating the QMJHL 2-0, going 0-2 to the OHL). The book on him is that he's a mobile puck mover with the skills to be a good one, but to be honest, I didn't see it on video of any of the Super Series games I watched. Seemed invisible.
Finally, we go to Switzerland for defenseman Dean Kukan. This solid all-around player isn't a flashy offensive guy, nor is he a top shutdown defender. But, he's a fluid skater who understands positioning and can move the puck pretty well. The Bruins have no track record of drafting a player from Switzerland, and Kukan isn't likely to be a guy who would buck the trend, but you never know.
Well, that about does it for Europe. There are so many more names to cover, but information is not as forthcoming about some of these guys as the ones in North America. I will do my level best to flesh out the scouting reports on the middle tier guys and lesser lights in the coming months.
As always, thanks for reading and keep putting the word out for NHL draft fans of all stripes- don't let the Bruins-centric format fool you. This is a blog for *any* NHL fan who wants a sneak peak at the kids who will be donning jerseys at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul come late June.
Up next is the WHL, which will close out the series. Hope you've enjoyed it.
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