We're back with the final installment of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft grades.
Philadelphia Flyers
Grade: B+
GM Paul Holmgren made a bold move to re-shape his team before, during and after the draft via free agency. Dealing Jeff Carter to the Columbus Blue Jackets allowed the Flyers to come away with Sean Couturier, who was a coup with the eighth overall selection. Nick Cousins was a nice value pick for the Flyers in the third round as an undersized but skilled and energetic centerman with good hockey sense. Oshawa defenseman and Florida native Colin Suellentrop doesn't bring much in the way of upside, but big German Marcel Noebels wasn't a bad pick in the fourth. Petr Placek is a risky pick after a season marred with injury, while Derek Mathers isn't much of a hockey player, but is the most feared fighter in the draft. Couturier is the obvious prize, but there is a lot of wait and see here, and the pressure is on, especially given the players who were moved out of Philly.
Phoenix Coyotes
Grade: C+
We like Connor Murphy as a player and person, but taking him 20th overall was a bold stroke that could pay off brilliantly or be a bad draft decision that could keep the Desert Dogs mired in mediocrity. We're not fans of the Alexander Ruuttu pick at 51st, either, which is two rounds too early at a minimum in our view. Lucas Lessio has his fans, but B2011DW is not one of them. Not a bad value talent-wise, but Lessio has major boom-or-bust potential. Harrison Ruopp again is a pick that seems perplexing in terms of him being a third-rounder, though we do think that nasty forward Kale Kessy might be Phoenix's best pick of the day. Getting him in the fourth is a steal. Darian Dziurzynski, Andrew Fritsch and Arizona native Zac Larraza are all interesting late-round developmental guys, but there is too much risk with this class to be fully on board.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Grade: C
Puck mover Joe Morrow is a solid selection for the Pens at 23, but there isn't much else in the cupboard to get excited about. Scott Harrington was a disappointment this season, and if he gets his development back on track, could end up being a player, but likely will not ever have the offensive dimension scouts hoped for coming into the season. Taking him in the second round is something of a reach. We don't have much else to say about Dominick Uher, Josh Archibald or Scott Wilson- they're clearly project guys who are going to take some time to see pay off (if at all). All in all, a mediocre class and not all that unexpected given the Pens did not have third- or fourth-round selections.
San Jose Sharks
Grade: C+
The Sharks added Brent Burns but at the cost of their first-round pick to Minnesota (Zack Phillips). In Matt Nieto, they get a speedy scoring winger, and the team's first-ever California native taken in the draft. Justin Sefton is one nasty dude, but third round for a guy who has major skating issues? Sean Kuraly is a solid middle-tier prospect for the fifth round, and Russian Daniil Sobchenko could do something if they can sign him and bring him over. Dylan Demelo is another long-term project who didn't get much playing time on the stacked Misssissauga St. Mike's while we loved Colin Blackwell this season, but he is what he is: an undersized guy who played Massachusetts public school hockey and is headed to Harvard. Sharks fans will have to wait a long time for payoff with him. Nieto's a good pick, but there were some reaches and projects in here- hard to grade the Sharks all that well in the here and now, but chief amateur scout Tim Burke could make us all look foolish in time. We push them below B- for trading Charlie Coyle, though. They're going to regret that.
St. Louis Blues
Grade: A-
No first-rounder? No problem. Three second-rounders can make you a lot of hay. Ty Rattie at 32 was a steal. We like Dmitrij Jaskin at 41 and Joel Edmundson is the kind of tough kid with upside who's worth taking a chance on. Jordan Binnington needs to put on some weight, but he had an eye-opening OHL championship series. Ryan Tesink is very good value for the Blues in the sixth round, too. We never understood why Central had him so high, but where the Blues got him is very nice. We also like the Yannick Veilleux pick- he's underrated. And Teemu Eronen is a nod to former chief scout Jarmo Kekalainen. Not a bad draft at all when you look at the picks St. Louis had and they still came away with Rattie, who could have been a top-20 guy.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Grade: B
Did Stevie Y get some nostalgia for some of his former Russian teammates or what? We really like the Vladislav Namestnikov pick- great kid and real nice player for the Bolts who has a gritty agitating side to him as well. A pair of Nikitas- Kucherov and Nesterov- are excellent value picks, but also carry high risk with them for signability concerns. We expect that Tampa will somehow get them over eventually, but if they don't those are two players taken in the meat of the draft who won't pay off. Matthew Peca was a nice late-round pick for them, but in the end, this draft has a little more risk to it than we would accept ourselves. However, if Kucherov and Nesterov pan out, could be huge. All three of the Russians don't have a lot of size, but Martin St. Louis has certainly proved to the hockey world that size doesn't always matter.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Grade: B
Tyler Biggs makes the Leafs nastier- they certainly can use his size, toughness and he does have upside. Stuart Percy is a solid defender who appears to be hitting a developmental curve upward, but first round? Too early for us. Sudbury winger Josh Leivo had a strong playoff series against Ottawa to propel himself into the third round. Can Leivo raise his intensity and consistency to make the most of his talent? Tony Cameranesi can really fly, and David Broll is legitimately tough to go with some skill. We like the Max Everson pick as good value in the seventh. All in all, a solid draft- but nothing to get too excited about.
Vancouver Canucks
Grade: B-
Nicklas Jensen has some legit skill and is not a bad option at all for Vancouver at 29. David Honzik was excellent value for the Canucks in the third round. Alexandre Grenier is huge and an overager/late-bloomer who had injury problems this season, but has some upside. Joe LaBate is a solid value for them in the fourth round, but is a good ways away from contributing. He'll be a freshman at Wisconsin this season and has talent to burn but doesn't always bring it. They went with project guys late, including overage Swede Pathrik Westerholm (will they invite his twin brother to camp?).
Washington Capitals
Grade: C
Acquiring Troy Brouwer was a good move for Washington (as has been George McPhee's free agency moves) However, the effect of not having a pick in the first three rounds will likely hurt the system in the long run. McPhee has built the Capitals to win now, and he's all in as the latest acquisitions have proven (though the Caps will eventually land in cap hell to get there). Nowegian goalie Steffen Soberg put on a goaltending clinic at the Under-18s, and we like Pat Koudys's potential as a two-way defenseman even though the RPI frosh had a very conservative first year. Travis Boyd and Garrett Haar are fine late picks, but nothing to write home about.
Winnipeg Jets
Grade: B+
Underrated draft by Kevin Cheveldayoff and company. They shocked folks by taking Mark Scheifele seventh overall, but that kid could justify the pick in time.They hit on two nice picks in the third with Adam Lowry (we don't know how he was there) and U of Michigan-bound Brennan Serville. Zach Yuen is an underrated guy with skill andcharacter we like a lot and was solid value in the fourth, while Austen Brassard in the fifth could be a steal. Not much to say about Jason Kasdorf, but Aaron Harstad is another solid seventh-rounder who could play someday. The Jets accepted some risk with Scheifele, but they mitigated it with some value guys who could very well pan out. Not bad.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Sean Couturier. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sean Couturier. Show all posts
Sunday, July 3, 2011
Monday, June 20, 2011
Bob McKenzie's 2011 final draft rankings are out
Death. Taxes. Bob McKenzie's annual NHL draft rankings on TSN.
It's an annual rite of summer when the ultimate NHL insider posts his annual top-60 prospects for the draft, plus honorable mentions. TSN has scout Grant McCagg weighing in on each profile, while McKenzie does the rankings based on a poll of 10 NHL scouts and a special mathematical formula he uses to triangulate the top-60 submissions he gets from each scout.
The link to his rankings are here.
He mentioned on the NHL Live Show that the aforementioned "elite 8" expanded to one more player (a "divine nine" perhaps?- w h/t to Dominic T. for that one). Swedish center Mika Zibanejad broke into the party, which means that the Bruins are looking at having their choice of at least one player from that select group assuming they don't go off the board for someone else.
Not surprisingly, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on top of the list, and assuming that the Oilers keep the No. 1 pick, the Red Deer Rebels star will go to Edmonton, where that team is assembling an embarrassment of riches up front.
Not surprisingly, defenseman Adam Larsson is No. 2 on the list and he could be the second overall pick to Colorado. If not, we can't imagine he will fall too far.
Jonathan Huberdeau (whom we started calling "J-Money" after his playoff run) is the third player on the list, which isn't a surprise given his meteoric rise up the draft boards all season.
Gabriel Landeskog is a nice fit at 4th- the feeling here is that if he gets to New Jersey, they would snap him up. He's ready to come in and contribute right away, and the Devils have to love his character and potential as a leader and impact player on that roster.
Rounding out the top-five is Sean Couturier, who was at one time thought to be the consensus choice for No. 1 overall. We actually think Couturier will fall out of the top-five based on what we hear, but he's a natural fit for Ottawa if he were to drop a bit.
A pair of Niagara Ice Dogs, defenseman Dougie Hamilton and center Ryan Strome, are 6 and 7 respectively. Hamilton and Strome were both major impact players as 17-year-olds on a team that wasn't expected to contend, yet finished as one of the OHL's top seeds and made it to the eastern conference final series before getting hammered by Mississauga.
At eighth overall is Kitchener defenseman Ryan Murphy, who is a popular topic of conversation among B's fans. He may be however, perfectly slotted at eight if the rumored Columbus-Philadelphia deal does not go off and the Blue Jackets keep the pick. Murphy is the kind of player who would appeal to Columbus given his dynamic element and ability to run the power play.
Zibanejad is ninth on McKenzie's list, but we hear this is too low for the Swede who has come on like gangbusters. He's looking like a player who will come off the board much closer to five than at nine.
Rounding out the top-10 is another Swede- defenseman Jonas Brodin, who is extremely slight and doesn't have a big shot, but who may think and process the game better than any other defenseman in the entire draft class. Off the ice, he's quiet and shy, but when in action, he plays with the cool, confident poise of a veteran and always seems to make the right play with the puck and his positioning.
One player making real noise not only on McKenzie's rankings but in Red Line Report as well is Barrie center Mark Scheifele. Both have him at 12th, one spot behind Nathan Beaulieu. Scheifele played well on a bad team and was a top forward for Canada at the Under-18s this spring. He's bright and committed- someone will take a chance on him early. McKenzie likened him to Ryan Johansen as 2011's super riser who will take people by surprise in terms of where you hear his named called. Might he be a guy who sneaks into the top-10 to Boston? They do love their OHL guys...
Ohio winger Tyler Biggs cracked the top-15, which is good to see, because he's probably underrated now after being overrated by Central Scouting's mid-term rankings. After seeing the Vancouver Canucks get manhandled in the Stanley Cup Finals, is it any secret why teams covet those big-bodied power forwards? Even if Biggs' upside is a question mark, his size and nastiness is not- he should go somewhere in the first round. 15 might be a tad high, but top-20 would not surprise.
Another bit of a surprise at 30 is another Buckeye (headed to Miami University along with Biggs) in Connor Murphy, but then again, with his potential and mental makeup/maturity, if teams are confident that he's not going to be a huge injury risk going forward, he's definitely a first-round talent. It's a chancy move simply because Murphy hasn't seen as much action as most of his peers, but when he played, his performances were usually quite memorable. Just ask Team Sweden about him.
Just missing the first-round cut at 31 and 32 are a pair of OHL imports from Russia and Sweden- Vladislav Namestnikov and Rickard Rakell- both of whom are knocking on the first round's door and will be interesting to see if they make it in.
One interesting omission from the first round is John Gibson at 37, who we thought did enough to break into the top-30 based on his performance at the World Under-18s. Will he pay the price of the current down cycle on drafting goalies high, exacerbated by the Conn Smythe performance of one former ninth-round pick in Tim Thomas?
The rankings are worth checking out. Last year, McKenzie got 25 of 30 right, which was a down year by his standards most of the time. We shall see if he can get back closer to his high of 28.
It's an annual rite of summer when the ultimate NHL insider posts his annual top-60 prospects for the draft, plus honorable mentions. TSN has scout Grant McCagg weighing in on each profile, while McKenzie does the rankings based on a poll of 10 NHL scouts and a special mathematical formula he uses to triangulate the top-60 submissions he gets from each scout.
The link to his rankings are here.
He mentioned on the NHL Live Show that the aforementioned "elite 8" expanded to one more player (a "divine nine" perhaps?- w h/t to Dominic T. for that one). Swedish center Mika Zibanejad broke into the party, which means that the Bruins are looking at having their choice of at least one player from that select group assuming they don't go off the board for someone else.
Not surprisingly, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is on top of the list, and assuming that the Oilers keep the No. 1 pick, the Red Deer Rebels star will go to Edmonton, where that team is assembling an embarrassment of riches up front.
Not surprisingly, defenseman Adam Larsson is No. 2 on the list and he could be the second overall pick to Colorado. If not, we can't imagine he will fall too far.
Jonathan Huberdeau (whom we started calling "J-Money" after his playoff run) is the third player on the list, which isn't a surprise given his meteoric rise up the draft boards all season.
Gabriel Landeskog is a nice fit at 4th- the feeling here is that if he gets to New Jersey, they would snap him up. He's ready to come in and contribute right away, and the Devils have to love his character and potential as a leader and impact player on that roster.
Rounding out the top-five is Sean Couturier, who was at one time thought to be the consensus choice for No. 1 overall. We actually think Couturier will fall out of the top-five based on what we hear, but he's a natural fit for Ottawa if he were to drop a bit.
A pair of Niagara Ice Dogs, defenseman Dougie Hamilton and center Ryan Strome, are 6 and 7 respectively. Hamilton and Strome were both major impact players as 17-year-olds on a team that wasn't expected to contend, yet finished as one of the OHL's top seeds and made it to the eastern conference final series before getting hammered by Mississauga.
At eighth overall is Kitchener defenseman Ryan Murphy, who is a popular topic of conversation among B's fans. He may be however, perfectly slotted at eight if the rumored Columbus-Philadelphia deal does not go off and the Blue Jackets keep the pick. Murphy is the kind of player who would appeal to Columbus given his dynamic element and ability to run the power play.
Zibanejad is ninth on McKenzie's list, but we hear this is too low for the Swede who has come on like gangbusters. He's looking like a player who will come off the board much closer to five than at nine.
Rounding out the top-10 is another Swede- defenseman Jonas Brodin, who is extremely slight and doesn't have a big shot, but who may think and process the game better than any other defenseman in the entire draft class. Off the ice, he's quiet and shy, but when in action, he plays with the cool, confident poise of a veteran and always seems to make the right play with the puck and his positioning.
One player making real noise not only on McKenzie's rankings but in Red Line Report as well is Barrie center Mark Scheifele. Both have him at 12th, one spot behind Nathan Beaulieu. Scheifele played well on a bad team and was a top forward for Canada at the Under-18s this spring. He's bright and committed- someone will take a chance on him early. McKenzie likened him to Ryan Johansen as 2011's super riser who will take people by surprise in terms of where you hear his named called. Might he be a guy who sneaks into the top-10 to Boston? They do love their OHL guys...
Ohio winger Tyler Biggs cracked the top-15, which is good to see, because he's probably underrated now after being overrated by Central Scouting's mid-term rankings. After seeing the Vancouver Canucks get manhandled in the Stanley Cup Finals, is it any secret why teams covet those big-bodied power forwards? Even if Biggs' upside is a question mark, his size and nastiness is not- he should go somewhere in the first round. 15 might be a tad high, but top-20 would not surprise.
Another bit of a surprise at 30 is another Buckeye (headed to Miami University along with Biggs) in Connor Murphy, but then again, with his potential and mental makeup/maturity, if teams are confident that he's not going to be a huge injury risk going forward, he's definitely a first-round talent. It's a chancy move simply because Murphy hasn't seen as much action as most of his peers, but when he played, his performances were usually quite memorable. Just ask Team Sweden about him.
Just missing the first-round cut at 31 and 32 are a pair of OHL imports from Russia and Sweden- Vladislav Namestnikov and Rickard Rakell- both of whom are knocking on the first round's door and will be interesting to see if they make it in.
One interesting omission from the first round is John Gibson at 37, who we thought did enough to break into the top-30 based on his performance at the World Under-18s. Will he pay the price of the current down cycle on drafting goalies high, exacerbated by the Conn Smythe performance of one former ninth-round pick in Tim Thomas?
The rankings are worth checking out. Last year, McKenzie got 25 of 30 right, which was a down year by his standards most of the time. We shall see if he can get back closer to his high of 28.
Monday rumor mill and draft strategies
It's hard to believe that the 2011 NHL Entry Draft is already upon us with the first round happening Friday night at 7:00 p.m. (EST) from the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.
It's been a long season, and we're approaching 500 posts here on the B2011DW blog. It's been a pleasure to bring you the information and insights on the 2011 draft (and even a small look ahead to 2012 and 2013 as well) so we're going to put the head down, find the hidden energy reserves, and finish out strong.
Much of the draft rumor talk this week revolves around speculation that Steve Tambellini and the Edmonton Oilers are entertaining moving back a few spots to give up the No. 1 choice. Now, while this thought could be dismissed out of hand given the popularity of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but Edmonton at least entertaining offers makes sense for them. This is the second consecutive year that the Oilers own the top pick, and while they will need a pretty sweet offer to move it, one team that could make sense for them to make a trade with is Florida. Dale Tallon has some pretty good currency to work with in terms of extra picks, prospects and even a roster player or two the Panthers could flip to Edmonton for the right to draft Nugent-Hopkins. The Oil would only be moving back two spots, giving them a shot at Adam Larsson or Jonathan Huberdeau, plus they would have extra assets to work with.
It all comes down to how much Tallon is willing to give up, but Florida could use the bounce they would get by selecting RNH a year after trading with the Bruins to send Nathan Horton to Boston as one of the key missing pieces to a Stanley Cup champion.
B2011DW talked to a source who said that Tambellini has quietly taken some calls about that No. 1 pick. A year ago, he was adamant about not moving it, and even tried to trade with Boston to get the first two selections. The philosophy has changed somewhat given Edmonton's need to be a better team now and not later. We can't confirm if the Oilers have talked specifically with Florida about that top selection, but if there is a deal to be made, it makes sense for them because moving back just a couple of spots keeps them in the running for a top forward in Huberdeau or even Gabriel Landeskog, or allows them to land their high-end defenseman in Larsson while adding other pieces to the cupboard.
We shall see whether the Oil stands pat at 1 or they flip the pick for more assets.
Another option for them is to try and package additional assets to try and move up from 19, where they currently own L.A.'s first pick, to the top-10 to try and land a second high-profile prospect.
As far as players go, Mika Zibanejad looks like a slam-dunk inside the top-8, which means that the Bruins will have a nice shot at any one of Ryan Murphy, Ryan Strome and maybe even Sean Couturier. Zibanejad exploded onto the scene after playing very well in Sweden's top pro league and impressing NHL teams with his winning attitude and personality. Where the B's once hoped to have a shot at him at ninth overall, that isn't happening. We don't think he'll get past Ottawa at six.
Also hearing from a good source and friend that the rumored Jeff Carter to Columbus from Philadelphia for eighth overall (and possibly a player) deal is done and that the Flyers will jump ahead of Boston in the draft order, with announcement pending sometime this week. If this is in fact true, then expect the Flyers to snap up Strome if he is on the board, which we would expect would mean that Murphy would probably be the guy to go to Boston at nine. Strome or Murphy- Ryan's Hope- either way, Boston wins. They get another Tyler Seguin-style high-end scorer to insure them against an early Marc Savard retirement, or they get a Phil Housley-type elite skills offensive-minded defender who becomes the best skater in the organization right from jump street.
With the Bruins having won the Stanley Cup, don't expect them to move up on Friday. They will likely hold onto the assets they have (9th, 40th, 81st picks in the first three rounds) and add to the organization rather than surrender ones at a premium to try and move up a few spots. The math does not lie: a nice player will drop to the B's at 9- there is no need to move forward unless the cost isn't going to hamstring them. The Bruins have a rare championship winner's opportunity to strengthen their organization with two non-playoff picks in the first two rounds.They'll take advantage of that.
It's all winding down now. Bruins fans aren't yet coming off their euphoria of a Stanley Cup victory, but the team is focused on having a good draft. They're having defenseman Nathan Beaulieu in town for a quick visit on his way to Minnesota. Their list is essentially done- it's decision time.
It's been a long season, and we're approaching 500 posts here on the B2011DW blog. It's been a pleasure to bring you the information and insights on the 2011 draft (and even a small look ahead to 2012 and 2013 as well) so we're going to put the head down, find the hidden energy reserves, and finish out strong.
Much of the draft rumor talk this week revolves around speculation that Steve Tambellini and the Edmonton Oilers are entertaining moving back a few spots to give up the No. 1 choice. Now, while this thought could be dismissed out of hand given the popularity of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but Edmonton at least entertaining offers makes sense for them. This is the second consecutive year that the Oilers own the top pick, and while they will need a pretty sweet offer to move it, one team that could make sense for them to make a trade with is Florida. Dale Tallon has some pretty good currency to work with in terms of extra picks, prospects and even a roster player or two the Panthers could flip to Edmonton for the right to draft Nugent-Hopkins. The Oil would only be moving back two spots, giving them a shot at Adam Larsson or Jonathan Huberdeau, plus they would have extra assets to work with.
It all comes down to how much Tallon is willing to give up, but Florida could use the bounce they would get by selecting RNH a year after trading with the Bruins to send Nathan Horton to Boston as one of the key missing pieces to a Stanley Cup champion.
B2011DW talked to a source who said that Tambellini has quietly taken some calls about that No. 1 pick. A year ago, he was adamant about not moving it, and even tried to trade with Boston to get the first two selections. The philosophy has changed somewhat given Edmonton's need to be a better team now and not later. We can't confirm if the Oilers have talked specifically with Florida about that top selection, but if there is a deal to be made, it makes sense for them because moving back just a couple of spots keeps them in the running for a top forward in Huberdeau or even Gabriel Landeskog, or allows them to land their high-end defenseman in Larsson while adding other pieces to the cupboard.
We shall see whether the Oil stands pat at 1 or they flip the pick for more assets.
Another option for them is to try and package additional assets to try and move up from 19, where they currently own L.A.'s first pick, to the top-10 to try and land a second high-profile prospect.
As far as players go, Mika Zibanejad looks like a slam-dunk inside the top-8, which means that the Bruins will have a nice shot at any one of Ryan Murphy, Ryan Strome and maybe even Sean Couturier. Zibanejad exploded onto the scene after playing very well in Sweden's top pro league and impressing NHL teams with his winning attitude and personality. Where the B's once hoped to have a shot at him at ninth overall, that isn't happening. We don't think he'll get past Ottawa at six.
Also hearing from a good source and friend that the rumored Jeff Carter to Columbus from Philadelphia for eighth overall (and possibly a player) deal is done and that the Flyers will jump ahead of Boston in the draft order, with announcement pending sometime this week. If this is in fact true, then expect the Flyers to snap up Strome if he is on the board, which we would expect would mean that Murphy would probably be the guy to go to Boston at nine. Strome or Murphy- Ryan's Hope- either way, Boston wins. They get another Tyler Seguin-style high-end scorer to insure them against an early Marc Savard retirement, or they get a Phil Housley-type elite skills offensive-minded defender who becomes the best skater in the organization right from jump street.
With the Bruins having won the Stanley Cup, don't expect them to move up on Friday. They will likely hold onto the assets they have (9th, 40th, 81st picks in the first three rounds) and add to the organization rather than surrender ones at a premium to try and move up a few spots. The math does not lie: a nice player will drop to the B's at 9- there is no need to move forward unless the cost isn't going to hamstring them. The Bruins have a rare championship winner's opportunity to strengthen their organization with two non-playoff picks in the first two rounds.They'll take advantage of that.
It's all winding down now. Bruins fans aren't yet coming off their euphoria of a Stanley Cup victory, but the team is focused on having a good draft. They're having defenseman Nathan Beaulieu in town for a quick visit on his way to Minnesota. Their list is essentially done- it's decision time.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
The Good Point's 2011 Mock Draft: B2011DW contibutes
The GoodPoint.com has a very nicely done mock draft that B2011DW helped out with (in terms of providing prospect comments- did not have anything to do with where the players are slotted) on Sean Couturier, Sven Bartschi, Mark McNeill and David Musil.
I thank John Matisz for providing the chance to continue to do projects associated with the draft.
Here's the jump and link for those interested.
With the Stanley Cup Final in the rearview mirror, all eyes in the hockey community are now on the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. In order to ease the transition from postseason to offseason, TheGP Hockey has put together a comprehensive, colorful account of what fans, scouts and pundits can expect to see come June 24 in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Over the course of the past six months, TheGP Hockey staff has been hard at work, stock piling exclusive interviews and feature stories that all pertain to the much anticipated summer event.
The result? The Good Point's official 2011 NHL Mock Draft.
Full link here
I thank John Matisz for providing the chance to continue to do projects associated with the draft.
Here's the jump and link for those interested.
With the Stanley Cup Final in the rearview mirror, all eyes in the hockey community are now on the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. In order to ease the transition from postseason to offseason, TheGP Hockey has put together a comprehensive, colorful account of what fans, scouts and pundits can expect to see come June 24 in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Over the course of the past six months, TheGP Hockey staff has been hard at work, stock piling exclusive interviews and feature stories that all pertain to the much anticipated summer event.
The result? The Good Point's official 2011 NHL Mock Draft.
Full link here
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
50 in 30: #5 Sean Couturier
Sean Couturier, C Drummondville Voltigeurs
6-4, 195
Born: December 7, 1992 in Phoenix, Arizona
Shoots: Left
Scouting report:
Strengths: Big-bodied frame with plenty of room to fill out and add mass/strength. Superb hockey sense in all zones; has the natural vision and creativity to generate offense, while also possessing the anticipation to play effective defense and properly diagram plays before they unfold. Outstanding puckhandler who can carry it into traffic and maintain possession with a quick stick, sharp hand-eye coordination and a natural ability to dangle and beat defenders to open space. Heavy shot that he's becoming more and more dangerous with as he gains confidence in his own abilities. When he improves his upper-body strength, will generate even more power on his quick release and accurate drive. Slick playmaking center who is a load to contain when he drives the net. Willingly takes the hit to make the play. When he gets stronger will use his strength and long reach to be an effective penalty killer and responsible guy in his own end. A team player- grew up around hockey and understands the importance of the collective dynamic.
Weaknesses: Skating needs to improve- mainly in his first few steps and ability to make quick stops and starts. His heavy feet are only really an issue in the initial quickness and rapid transitions because he has a powerful stride and is effective when he gets up to speed. Doesn't appear to have a high offensive ceiling, but stands to be a very good NHL player in all zones over time.
Multimedia:
Sean Couturier compilation video (NHLDraftVideo)
Couturier scores from his knees (no audio) (NHLDraftVideo)
Interview with Sean Couturier at the NHL Scouting Combine (B2011DW video)
Style compares to: Keith Primeau
Draft prediction:If Couturier isn't a top-five selection, then he becomes an instant value anywhere thereafter. Another late-1992 who has had his game unfairly picked apart by scouts, you still have to remember that he scored with more frequency than any other 2011 draft candidate. Had he not missed 10 games to the WJC and mono and other ailments, he would have pushed for the league scoring crown for the second straight year. Couturier is a winner, and if he does somehow drop, some NHL team is going to happily add him to the mix. He's been downgraded because he isn't dynamic, but our guess is that in about four years, people are going to look back on the 2011 draft and wonder why Couturier didn't go inside the top-two (unless of course Edmonton or Colorado surprise everyone- we shall see).
Projection: Second-line center with 30+, 80+-point upside whose real value lies in his smarts and versatility. Will be an honest center who can score or grind it out. Couturier will be a fixture on special teams for whichever team drafts him. And as solid/strong as those projections may seem, we might be selling him short.
Background:Father, Sylvain, is the GM for the Acadie-Bathurst Titan of the QMJHL; was the 65th overall selection of the Los Angeles Kings in 1986 and played 33 NHL games with the team between 1988-92. Sean was born in Phoenix while Sylvain was playing for the IHL's Phoenix Roadrunners. Played for the Notre Dame Hounds in Wilcox, Saskatchewan before joining the QMJHL; teammates included 2010 1st-rounders Brandon Gormley (PHX) and Jaden Schwartz (STL). Led the QMJHL in scoring in 2009-10 with 96 points ( the first time in history that the league scoring champion did not score at least 100 points). Scored 96 points again in 2010-11 to finish fourth in league scoring, but had the highest point-per-game average of any 2011 draft eligible forward (missed time to WJC and injury) with 36 goals, 60 helpers in just 58 contests. Named 1st Team QMJHL All-Star. Favorite NHL team: Montreal Canadiens Favorite NHL player: Evgeni Malkin
If Couturier had his own soundtrack it would be: "Train Kept a Rollin'"- Metallica and Friends
Quotable:
“At his size, he'll be hard to pass up in the draft. He possesses a very good work ethic and he's out there for every important faceoff. He's very responsible in the defensive aspect of the game -- a rare quality for such a young player in junior hockey."- Central Scouting's Chris Bordeleau to NHL.com; May, 2011
“Sean has excellent puckhandling and playmaking ability; he sees the ice and reads the play very well . . . He's extremely smart and gets himself into good scoring position. He plays a solid two-way game and is very responsible defensively.”- Central Scouting's Chris Edwards to NHL.com; May, 2011
"In my view, he's not a terrible skater, but the lack of suddenness is evident and he'll never be considered a "plus-skater" no matter how much work he puts into it. When you're looking at drafting a player with the first or second overall pick, these are the kinds of things that teams/scouts will obsess about because his stride is a little funky, and he makes slower, wide turns at times. That said, if Couturier picks up a step or two, he'll be fine. I heard the same exact things about Patrice Bergeron when he was drafted, and the difference between Couturier and Bergeron (aside from the draft position) is about six inches and some considerable offensive upside. Because of where Couturier stands to be drafted, the stakes are higher for him."- B2011DW on Sean Couturier to In Lou We Trust; May, 2011
"Every year there seems to be a player at or near the top who falls off for whatever reason. Couturier is that guy, even thoughhe finished just behind Huberdeau in league scoring at the fourth spot. He's got a nice 6-4, 195-pound frame and has the hands and instincts to be a scorer at the next level. What is hurting him most are his heavy feet, but you can expect that he will spend a lot of time with power skating instructors between now and whenever he's knocking on the NHL door to remedy that shortcoming. We're not buying the argument that because his father was a journeyman, Couturier might be bound for the same NHL fate- just look at Sidney Crosby. NHL teams aren't spending much time using that as a major sticking point as to whether to draft Couturier or not. Two straight years of 96 points should be convincing enough evidence that this kid can get it done offensively."- B2011DW on Couturier; March 2011
The Scoop
In Lou We Trust Sean Couturier draft profile (worth reading and not just because they kindly mention B2011DW in it-very good stuff there)
Couturier headlines talented draft class in QMJHL by Mike G. Morreale, NHL.com
Couturier stays the course despite adversity by Mike G. Morreale, NHL.com
6-4, 195
Born: December 7, 1992 in Phoenix, Arizona
Shoots: Left
Scouting report:
Strengths: Big-bodied frame with plenty of room to fill out and add mass/strength. Superb hockey sense in all zones; has the natural vision and creativity to generate offense, while also possessing the anticipation to play effective defense and properly diagram plays before they unfold. Outstanding puckhandler who can carry it into traffic and maintain possession with a quick stick, sharp hand-eye coordination and a natural ability to dangle and beat defenders to open space. Heavy shot that he's becoming more and more dangerous with as he gains confidence in his own abilities. When he improves his upper-body strength, will generate even more power on his quick release and accurate drive. Slick playmaking center who is a load to contain when he drives the net. Willingly takes the hit to make the play. When he gets stronger will use his strength and long reach to be an effective penalty killer and responsible guy in his own end. A team player- grew up around hockey and understands the importance of the collective dynamic.
Weaknesses: Skating needs to improve- mainly in his first few steps and ability to make quick stops and starts. His heavy feet are only really an issue in the initial quickness and rapid transitions because he has a powerful stride and is effective when he gets up to speed. Doesn't appear to have a high offensive ceiling, but stands to be a very good NHL player in all zones over time.
Multimedia:
Sean Couturier compilation video (NHLDraftVideo)
Couturier scores from his knees (no audio) (NHLDraftVideo)
Interview with Sean Couturier at the NHL Scouting Combine (B2011DW video)
Style compares to: Keith Primeau
Draft prediction:If Couturier isn't a top-five selection, then he becomes an instant value anywhere thereafter. Another late-1992 who has had his game unfairly picked apart by scouts, you still have to remember that he scored with more frequency than any other 2011 draft candidate. Had he not missed 10 games to the WJC and mono and other ailments, he would have pushed for the league scoring crown for the second straight year. Couturier is a winner, and if he does somehow drop, some NHL team is going to happily add him to the mix. He's been downgraded because he isn't dynamic, but our guess is that in about four years, people are going to look back on the 2011 draft and wonder why Couturier didn't go inside the top-two (unless of course Edmonton or Colorado surprise everyone- we shall see).
Projection: Second-line center with 30+, 80+-point upside whose real value lies in his smarts and versatility. Will be an honest center who can score or grind it out. Couturier will be a fixture on special teams for whichever team drafts him. And as solid/strong as those projections may seem, we might be selling him short.
Background:Father, Sylvain, is the GM for the Acadie-Bathurst Titan of the QMJHL; was the 65th overall selection of the Los Angeles Kings in 1986 and played 33 NHL games with the team between 1988-92. Sean was born in Phoenix while Sylvain was playing for the IHL's Phoenix Roadrunners. Played for the Notre Dame Hounds in Wilcox, Saskatchewan before joining the QMJHL; teammates included 2010 1st-rounders Brandon Gormley (PHX) and Jaden Schwartz (STL). Led the QMJHL in scoring in 2009-10 with 96 points ( the first time in history that the league scoring champion did not score at least 100 points). Scored 96 points again in 2010-11 to finish fourth in league scoring, but had the highest point-per-game average of any 2011 draft eligible forward (missed time to WJC and injury) with 36 goals, 60 helpers in just 58 contests. Named 1st Team QMJHL All-Star. Favorite NHL team: Montreal Canadiens Favorite NHL player: Evgeni Malkin
If Couturier had his own soundtrack it would be: "Train Kept a Rollin'"- Metallica and Friends
Quotable:
“At his size, he'll be hard to pass up in the draft. He possesses a very good work ethic and he's out there for every important faceoff. He's very responsible in the defensive aspect of the game -- a rare quality for such a young player in junior hockey."- Central Scouting's Chris Bordeleau to NHL.com; May, 2011
“Sean has excellent puckhandling and playmaking ability; he sees the ice and reads the play very well . . . He's extremely smart and gets himself into good scoring position. He plays a solid two-way game and is very responsible defensively.”- Central Scouting's Chris Edwards to NHL.com; May, 2011
"In my view, he's not a terrible skater, but the lack of suddenness is evident and he'll never be considered a "plus-skater" no matter how much work he puts into it. When you're looking at drafting a player with the first or second overall pick, these are the kinds of things that teams/scouts will obsess about because his stride is a little funky, and he makes slower, wide turns at times. That said, if Couturier picks up a step or two, he'll be fine. I heard the same exact things about Patrice Bergeron when he was drafted, and the difference between Couturier and Bergeron (aside from the draft position) is about six inches and some considerable offensive upside. Because of where Couturier stands to be drafted, the stakes are higher for him."- B2011DW on Sean Couturier to In Lou We Trust; May, 2011
"Every year there seems to be a player at or near the top who falls off for whatever reason. Couturier is that guy, even thoughhe finished just behind Huberdeau in league scoring at the fourth spot. He's got a nice 6-4, 195-pound frame and has the hands and instincts to be a scorer at the next level. What is hurting him most are his heavy feet, but you can expect that he will spend a lot of time with power skating instructors between now and whenever he's knocking on the NHL door to remedy that shortcoming. We're not buying the argument that because his father was a journeyman, Couturier might be bound for the same NHL fate- just look at Sidney Crosby. NHL teams aren't spending much time using that as a major sticking point as to whether to draft Couturier or not. Two straight years of 96 points should be convincing enough evidence that this kid can get it done offensively."- B2011DW on Couturier; March 2011
The Scoop
In Lou We Trust Sean Couturier draft profile (worth reading and not just because they kindly mention B2011DW in it-very good stuff there)
Couturier headlines talented draft class in QMJHL by Mike G. Morreale, NHL.com
Couturier stays the course despite adversity by Mike G. Morreale, NHL.com
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Combine whispers: "A wild ride in store..."
Had a productive day at the NHL Draft Combine in Toronto.
Spent the afternoon at the hotel, where players were coming in and out all day, while the NHL scouting staffs made appearances at various times as well.
Had a chance to sit down and do extensive interviews with BU defenseman Adam Clendening and Ottawa winger Shane Prince, two of the best prospects coming out of New York.
B2011DW was also a part of the media scrum that engaged the top prospects made available to us by the NHL today: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson, Dougie Hamilton and Jonathan Huberdeau. More on them later.
Also ran into a few NHL sources who didn't have a great deal of time to chat, but one longtime veteran scout had this to say: "We've figured out a lot of the top players in this draft, but I'm just going to say that after about three, things are going to break wide open and things will get crazy. I think opinions are really divided on where these guys are going to go in terms of order. I would say that a wild ride is in store- it should be fun."
Feedback from a lot of the players themselves were that the line of questioning did not seem to be all that intense nor were there some of the more bizarre questions asked in the past. Most talked about how each team approached the interview process differently, but none claimed that they were grilled particularly hard by the teams themselves. Of course, this could be a product of the players being high character guys enough that grilling was not warranted.
We even had a chance to stop Ryan Strome in between interviews, armed with a bag of Subway, trying to knock out his last two interviews before he turns his attention to the physical testing tomorrow afternoon. He's one of the lucky ones- he lives just a few minutes down the road in the neaby Toronto suburb of Mississauga, so he's not living in the hotel for the week. He's a sharp kid with excellent people skills, to say nothing of his impressive hockey talent. He has future team leader and fan favorite written all over him.
Even lower-round guys who weren't invited to the combine like OJHL and Michigan recruit Brennan Serville, were on hand to conduct scheduled team meetings. The guys from Ontario can make the trek to meet with clubs and we can see that opportunity being used to full advantage.
Much more to come, but we have to wrap up the #19 prospect and get it in the books before we do anything further. We did see Ty Rattie at the hotel today, but he was sharply dressed and on the way to an interview; he did not have time to stop and chat. We'll get him tomorrow after his testing is complete.
Spent the afternoon at the hotel, where players were coming in and out all day, while the NHL scouting staffs made appearances at various times as well.
Had a chance to sit down and do extensive interviews with BU defenseman Adam Clendening and Ottawa winger Shane Prince, two of the best prospects coming out of New York.
B2011DW was also a part of the media scrum that engaged the top prospects made available to us by the NHL today: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson, Dougie Hamilton and Jonathan Huberdeau. More on them later.
Also ran into a few NHL sources who didn't have a great deal of time to chat, but one longtime veteran scout had this to say: "We've figured out a lot of the top players in this draft, but I'm just going to say that after about three, things are going to break wide open and things will get crazy. I think opinions are really divided on where these guys are going to go in terms of order. I would say that a wild ride is in store- it should be fun."
Feedback from a lot of the players themselves were that the line of questioning did not seem to be all that intense nor were there some of the more bizarre questions asked in the past. Most talked about how each team approached the interview process differently, but none claimed that they were grilled particularly hard by the teams themselves. Of course, this could be a product of the players being high character guys enough that grilling was not warranted.
We even had a chance to stop Ryan Strome in between interviews, armed with a bag of Subway, trying to knock out his last two interviews before he turns his attention to the physical testing tomorrow afternoon. He's one of the lucky ones- he lives just a few minutes down the road in the neaby Toronto suburb of Mississauga, so he's not living in the hotel for the week. He's a sharp kid with excellent people skills, to say nothing of his impressive hockey talent. He has future team leader and fan favorite written all over him.
Even lower-round guys who weren't invited to the combine like OJHL and Michigan recruit Brennan Serville, were on hand to conduct scheduled team meetings. The guys from Ontario can make the trek to meet with clubs and we can see that opportunity being used to full advantage.
Much more to come, but we have to wrap up the #19 prospect and get it in the books before we do anything further. We did see Ty Rattie at the hotel today, but he was sharply dressed and on the way to an interview; he did not have time to stop and chat. We'll get him tomorrow after his testing is complete.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
An interesting statistical look at the 2011 draft's top prospects
If you aren't familiar with the Bluechip Bulletin blog, you ought to head over there and check it out.
Author BCB knows his stuff. He's based in the heart of Plymouth Whalers country and sees a lot of high-level hockey from the OHL to the U.S. NTDP and everything in between.
He's done a statistical analysis that is worth looking at by projecting player production over the course of 82 games based on their point-per-game numbers. His findings/conclusions about Sean Couturier are eye-opening to say the least, so be sure to check it out.
It's the kind of thing that we don't spend a lot of time doing here at B2011DW, but are very happy to see on the web because it's one more solid analysis and food for thought that gets away from a lot of the conventional wisdom and accepted "knowns" about the top players.
We applaud BCB and his work. We know he's got some other posts and studies in the hopper, so give his site and visit. Whether you agree with the conclusions or not isn't the point. In getting to know him over the past few months, he doesn't give a fig about what everyone else thinks. He's got some strong opinions but defends them well.
At the end of the day, we'll always welcome engaged and hard-hitting draft analysis. He gets to the heart of the matter right here when he says:
I don’t claim to be a statistics expert, and I certainly wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that teams base their selections solely on statistics. While there are some concepts within Moneyball that are applicable to hockey, anyone who has ever looked at Ramzi Abid’s numbers his draft year and then seen him in person knows that there’s more to a player than his statistics. Still, there are some things about a player that you can only learn by looking at his statistics.
In an age where the internet has plenty of venues through which to explore the hockey draft, Bluechip Bulletin is a thinking man's blog.
Author BCB knows his stuff. He's based in the heart of Plymouth Whalers country and sees a lot of high-level hockey from the OHL to the U.S. NTDP and everything in between.
He's done a statistical analysis that is worth looking at by projecting player production over the course of 82 games based on their point-per-game numbers. His findings/conclusions about Sean Couturier are eye-opening to say the least, so be sure to check it out.
It's the kind of thing that we don't spend a lot of time doing here at B2011DW, but are very happy to see on the web because it's one more solid analysis and food for thought that gets away from a lot of the conventional wisdom and accepted "knowns" about the top players.
We applaud BCB and his work. We know he's got some other posts and studies in the hopper, so give his site and visit. Whether you agree with the conclusions or not isn't the point. In getting to know him over the past few months, he doesn't give a fig about what everyone else thinks. He's got some strong opinions but defends them well.
At the end of the day, we'll always welcome engaged and hard-hitting draft analysis. He gets to the heart of the matter right here when he says:
I don’t claim to be a statistics expert, and I certainly wouldn’t go so far as to suggest that teams base their selections solely on statistics. While there are some concepts within Moneyball that are applicable to hockey, anyone who has ever looked at Ramzi Abid’s numbers his draft year and then seen him in person knows that there’s more to a player than his statistics. Still, there are some things about a player that you can only learn by looking at his statistics.
In an age where the internet has plenty of venues through which to explore the hockey draft, Bluechip Bulletin is a thinking man's blog.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
2011 Draft Interview on Devils In Lou We Trust blog
Bruins 2011 Draft Watch had an exchange over several days with New Jersey Devils blogger Tom Stivali of the highly popular site In Lou We Trust about this year's crop and potential trends.
You can read the entire piece here, and it's only the first of two parts.
For those who wouldn't take the time to click on the link otherwise, here are some excerpts to make it worth your while:
B2011DW on Gabriel Landeskog:
As for Landeskog, he's precisely the kind of player the Colorado Avalanche want and need. I can envision him playing in the NHL next season with his refined power game, character and maturity. He doesn't have the elite skill level of other players in class, but as the total package, there are none better. At the beginning of the year, I saw him play and likened him to a Mats Sundin/Brendan Shanahan hybrid. He's not quite as big as both guys or as skilled, but is every bit as powerful and just a tough competitor and leader. You take a guy like Landeskog and put him with Matt Duchene and he's going to do some damage in the NHL. Maybe not right away, but I don't think you can miss with this player.
B2011DW on Sean Couturier's skating knocks:
Skating deficiencies come in different categories/varieties depending on the player, but in Couturier's case, he lacks a quick initial burst and the ability to accelerate rapidly in short areas. Quick stops/starts/changes of direction are a challenge for him. You will hear scouts use the phrase: "has heavy boots" which usually means that a player doesn't explode from a standstill and generate top speed in the first few strides, but rather labors to get that head of steam going.
This is a pretty common thing with a player of Couturier's size, however, and can be improved with power skating work/improvements to mechanics and also off-ice plyometrics and ladder work to increase footspeed/agility. Milan Lucic told me that his off-season grass drills and plyometrics work (along with the power skating he does) has been instrumental in his success in the NHL after being red-flagged during his draft season for skating/mobility. Because Couturier's speed is fine when he gets going, he doesn't have all that far to go.
When you watch Couturier on video, which is what I assume you are seeing, he's already moving and in stride with or without the puck (when he's about to receive the pass), so you aren't going to see much wrong with him without seeing how he looks coming out of the gate from a stop, or during sequences where he's having to make rapid changes in direction. That's where the criticisms of his mobility tend to originate.
In my view, he's not a terrible skater, but the lack of suddenness is evident and he'll never be considered a "plus-skater" no matter how much work he puts into it. When you're looking at drafting a player with the first or second overall pick, these are the kinds of things that teams/scouts will obsess about because his stride is a little funky, and he makes slower, wide turns at times. That said, if Couturier picks up a step or two, he'll be fine. I heard the same exact things about Patrice Bergeron when he was drafted, and the difference between Couturier and Bergeron (aside from the draft position) is about six inches and some considerable offensive upside. Because of where Couturier stands to be drafted, the stakes are higher for him.
B2011DW on Adam Larsson and Ryan Murphy:
Larsson is still my top guy because of the complete package he brings to the team who picks him. Not to mention the fact that my projection may be on the conservative side. If he develops into more than just a complementary player, then he could end up being very good. Right now, going off of what we know, it's hard to say for sure, but the tools are certainly there. He had a excellent offensive season a year ago, but really fell off with his numbers this time around. I think a lot of that had to do with nagging injuries and also perhaps the pressure that comes with performing in the draft season. Larsson set the bar really, really high as a 16-17-year-old, so unfortunately for him, there was no place for him to go but down.
I like Hamilton's upside. I believe that he and Ryan Murphy have the highest ceilings of any of the defensemen including Larsson, but both have their drawbacks. In Hamilton's case, it's his natural awareness and positional savvy. One thing to keep in mind with him was that he is a converted forward, so he's still learning the defense position. Some scouts have expressed concerns about his hockey sense and whether he can process quickly enough to be the sum of his impressive parts.
Murphy's drawbacks are his size and overall defensive acumen- more in terms of his physical limitations when you talk about defenders being responsible for handling wingers that are bigger, faster, stronger than ever. He's going to have his hands full, even if he ends up being 5-11, 190 pounds or so at his peak of maturity. I see a lot of Phil Housley in him when I watch Murphy play, though- and I think any team who could get a guy with that kind of potential in the top-10 would be pretty happy with that.
My thanks to Tom for giving me such an extensive platform with which to bloviate about the NHL draft, and I hope you'll check out the whole interview. Part two will be posted tomorrow.- Kirk Luedeke
You can read the entire piece here, and it's only the first of two parts.
For those who wouldn't take the time to click on the link otherwise, here are some excerpts to make it worth your while:
B2011DW on Gabriel Landeskog:
As for Landeskog, he's precisely the kind of player the Colorado Avalanche want and need. I can envision him playing in the NHL next season with his refined power game, character and maturity. He doesn't have the elite skill level of other players in class, but as the total package, there are none better. At the beginning of the year, I saw him play and likened him to a Mats Sundin/Brendan Shanahan hybrid. He's not quite as big as both guys or as skilled, but is every bit as powerful and just a tough competitor and leader. You take a guy like Landeskog and put him with Matt Duchene and he's going to do some damage in the NHL. Maybe not right away, but I don't think you can miss with this player.
B2011DW on Sean Couturier's skating knocks:
Skating deficiencies come in different categories/varieties depending on the player, but in Couturier's case, he lacks a quick initial burst and the ability to accelerate rapidly in short areas. Quick stops/starts/changes of direction are a challenge for him. You will hear scouts use the phrase: "has heavy boots" which usually means that a player doesn't explode from a standstill and generate top speed in the first few strides, but rather labors to get that head of steam going.
This is a pretty common thing with a player of Couturier's size, however, and can be improved with power skating work/improvements to mechanics and also off-ice plyometrics and ladder work to increase footspeed/agility. Milan Lucic told me that his off-season grass drills and plyometrics work (along with the power skating he does) has been instrumental in his success in the NHL after being red-flagged during his draft season for skating/mobility. Because Couturier's speed is fine when he gets going, he doesn't have all that far to go.
When you watch Couturier on video, which is what I assume you are seeing, he's already moving and in stride with or without the puck (when he's about to receive the pass), so you aren't going to see much wrong with him without seeing how he looks coming out of the gate from a stop, or during sequences where he's having to make rapid changes in direction. That's where the criticisms of his mobility tend to originate.
In my view, he's not a terrible skater, but the lack of suddenness is evident and he'll never be considered a "plus-skater" no matter how much work he puts into it. When you're looking at drafting a player with the first or second overall pick, these are the kinds of things that teams/scouts will obsess about because his stride is a little funky, and he makes slower, wide turns at times. That said, if Couturier picks up a step or two, he'll be fine. I heard the same exact things about Patrice Bergeron when he was drafted, and the difference between Couturier and Bergeron (aside from the draft position) is about six inches and some considerable offensive upside. Because of where Couturier stands to be drafted, the stakes are higher for him.
B2011DW on Adam Larsson and Ryan Murphy:
Larsson is still my top guy because of the complete package he brings to the team who picks him. Not to mention the fact that my projection may be on the conservative side. If he develops into more than just a complementary player, then he could end up being very good. Right now, going off of what we know, it's hard to say for sure, but the tools are certainly there. He had a excellent offensive season a year ago, but really fell off with his numbers this time around. I think a lot of that had to do with nagging injuries and also perhaps the pressure that comes with performing in the draft season. Larsson set the bar really, really high as a 16-17-year-old, so unfortunately for him, there was no place for him to go but down.
I like Hamilton's upside. I believe that he and Ryan Murphy have the highest ceilings of any of the defensemen including Larsson, but both have their drawbacks. In Hamilton's case, it's his natural awareness and positional savvy. One thing to keep in mind with him was that he is a converted forward, so he's still learning the defense position. Some scouts have expressed concerns about his hockey sense and whether he can process quickly enough to be the sum of his impressive parts.
Murphy's drawbacks are his size and overall defensive acumen- more in terms of his physical limitations when you talk about defenders being responsible for handling wingers that are bigger, faster, stronger than ever. He's going to have his hands full, even if he ends up being 5-11, 190 pounds or so at his peak of maturity. I see a lot of Phil Housley in him when I watch Murphy play, though- and I think any team who could get a guy with that kind of potential in the top-10 would be pretty happy with that.
My thanks to Tom for giving me such an extensive platform with which to bloviate about the NHL draft, and I hope you'll check out the whole interview. Part two will be posted tomorrow.- Kirk Luedeke
Saturday, May 7, 2011
What a difference 9 months makes
We went back and looked at Red Line Report's 2011 NHL draft rankings from August, 2010 and compared them to April 2011 (we talked to Kyle Woodlief and the May issue will be out this week, btw).
For those of you not as familiar with RLR, August is the first month that the independent scouting service, now in its 18th year of publication, publishes its monthly rankings. They start with 110 players for that season, and by spring time they're up to about 300 (286 in April 2011).
For fun, we thought it would be nice to go and look at what has changed in the top-10 from August up until now.
Red Line Report: August, 2010:
1. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville (QMJHL)
2. Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea (SEL)
3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
4. Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw (OHL)
5. Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener (OHL)
6. David Musil, D Vancouver (WHL)
7. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha (USHL)
8. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)
9. J.T. Miller, C U.S. NTDP (USHL)
10. Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)
Here is what RLR had for April (and we'll update this post when the new issue is out)
1. Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener (OHL) +4
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL) +2
3. Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea (SEL) -1
4. Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara (OHL) +8 (12th in Aug)
5. Jonathan Huberdeau, C/W Saint John (QMJHL) +32 (37th in Aug)
6. Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener (OHL) +11 (17th in Aug)
7. Ryan Strome, C Niagara (OHL) +94 (101 in Aug)
8. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville (QMJHL) -7
9. Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) +20 (29th in Aug)
10. Rocco Grimaldi, LW U.S. NTDP (USHL) +56 (66th in Aug)
Strome was the biggest gainer- moving up almost 95 spots from where he was to start. He didn't even get a sniff at the Hlinka, so for him to have accomplished so much is remarkable. His 105 points was second to Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson in the OHL this season.
Mighty mite Grimaldi was the other big riser, moving 56 spots with his production, spirit and dynamic ability. Although he's only 5-6 and about 165 pounds, we wouldn't bet against this guy overcoming that serious size deficit to be an impact NHL player one day.
Huberdeau's rise was pretty significant, too- he was a skinny playmaker in the summertime, but this year, he really turned it on, scoring 40+ goals and breaking the 100-point mark for the juggernaut Saint John Sea Dogs. We don't see any way that he's not picked in the top-5 come June. There's simply too much skill and upside for this kid.
Murphy was pretty highly regarded, but his snub from the Hlinka team in August seemed to light a fire under him. He was as dynamic as they come all season long for Kitchener and he stepped up his game in the U18s as well, setting a Canada scoring record in that tournament with 13 points. Not bad for a defenseman.
Now for the fallers:
11. J.T. MIller, C U.S. NTDP (USHL) -2
18. David Musil, D Vancouver (WHL) -12
20. Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw (OHL) -16
45. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2) -37
55. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha (USHL) -48
60. Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL) -50
Miller is not really a "faller" dropping down two spots from 9 to 11, but we've heard whispers that he was too highly ranked by RLR all season. After his superb U18 performance, we wouldn't be surprised to see him jump back into the top-10 for May, given how close he is.
Musil and Saad are two players who are clearly sliding, but could prove to be nice value picks later in the first round. We don't believe they'll drop out of the top-30 altogether, but given the expectations for them coming into the 2010-11 campaign, they've regressed. Thing is, they both have such impressive natural talent, that if they reverse the developmental trend, they could end up being very good NHL players. We like Saad's upside better, and we hear that the situation he's dealing with in Saginaw may have a lot more to do with it than his not being able to play at the highest level. He could use a change of scenery.
Rask may have slowed his descent a bit with a strong Under-18 performance for Team Sweden, but he's still a 1st-round wildcard. His season hasn't warranted being picked in the top-30, but if scouts believe that the 16-17-YO Rask they saw last season and was seen more in the 2011 U18 tourney is more of what to expect from him, you have to think someone will grab him between 20-30.
Ambroz has withered on the vine- he's the classic case of a physically dominant kid who emerged three years ago, but has not progressed much, while a good number of the kids in his peer group caught him and passed him. Last year, Ambroz would have been a slam-dunk top-10 pick had he been eligible. But, with another full year to dissect and nitpick his game, look at his ugly skating stride and lack of acceleration, plus hear stories about how he's passed on summertime opportunities to improve his game, this Minnesotan will be lucky to be a second-round pick. We believe someone will take him there simply because there is still a lot of raw potential with him, but it would have to be a club with extra picks to risk on a reclamation project with a questionable work ethic. Don't be surprised if he drops into the third round, though.
Finally, McColgan got off to a horrendous start after having surgery to remove his tonsils on the eve of the season and taking a good 1.5 months to settle in. Already small and not having much room to add mass to his frame, he's a risky pick to begin with, but when you get down to it, there isn't a whole lot of difference between McColgan and Grimaldi. In fact, it's almost astounding to see the two have juxtaposed their positioning, with McColgan being the top-10 guy before the season and now down where Grimaldi was. The difference? We have to believe it is Grimaldi's production and the fact that he hit the ground running from the start of the season. McColgan is not chopped liver- he's still a skilled, dynamic little winger with some serious offensive skills. His strong finish with the Rockets should keep him from falling off the map too much on draft day.
For more on Red Line Report, you can visit the website.
The draft guide will be coming out in early June and will feature in-depth scouting reports on the top-110 or so draft prospects, plus team draft analysis, mock drafts and the ever-popular awards section.
For those of you not as familiar with RLR, August is the first month that the independent scouting service, now in its 18th year of publication, publishes its monthly rankings. They start with 110 players for that season, and by spring time they're up to about 300 (286 in April 2011).
For fun, we thought it would be nice to go and look at what has changed in the top-10 from August up until now.
Red Line Report: August, 2010:
1. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville (QMJHL)
2. Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea (SEL)
3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
4. Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw (OHL)
5. Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener (OHL)
6. David Musil, D Vancouver (WHL)
7. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha (USHL)
8. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)
9. J.T. Miller, C U.S. NTDP (USHL)
10. Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL)
Here is what RLR had for April (and we'll update this post when the new issue is out)
1. Gabriel Landeskog, LW Kitchener (OHL) +4
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL) +2
3. Adam Larsson, D Skelleftea (SEL) -1
4. Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara (OHL) +8 (12th in Aug)
5. Jonathan Huberdeau, C/W Saint John (QMJHL) +32 (37th in Aug)
6. Ryan Murphy, D Kitchener (OHL) +11 (17th in Aug)
7. Ryan Strome, C Niagara (OHL) +94 (101 in Aug)
8. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville (QMJHL) -7
9. Alex Khokhlachev, C Windsor (OHL) +20 (29th in Aug)
10. Rocco Grimaldi, LW U.S. NTDP (USHL) +56 (66th in Aug)
Strome was the biggest gainer- moving up almost 95 spots from where he was to start. He didn't even get a sniff at the Hlinka, so for him to have accomplished so much is remarkable. His 105 points was second to Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson in the OHL this season.
Mighty mite Grimaldi was the other big riser, moving 56 spots with his production, spirit and dynamic ability. Although he's only 5-6 and about 165 pounds, we wouldn't bet against this guy overcoming that serious size deficit to be an impact NHL player one day.
Huberdeau's rise was pretty significant, too- he was a skinny playmaker in the summertime, but this year, he really turned it on, scoring 40+ goals and breaking the 100-point mark for the juggernaut Saint John Sea Dogs. We don't see any way that he's not picked in the top-5 come June. There's simply too much skill and upside for this kid.
Murphy was pretty highly regarded, but his snub from the Hlinka team in August seemed to light a fire under him. He was as dynamic as they come all season long for Kitchener and he stepped up his game in the U18s as well, setting a Canada scoring record in that tournament with 13 points. Not bad for a defenseman.
Now for the fallers:
11. J.T. MIller, C U.S. NTDP (USHL) -2
18. David Musil, D Vancouver (WHL) -12
20. Brandon Saad, LW Saginaw (OHL) -16
45. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2) -37
55. Seth Ambroz, RW Omaha (USHL) -48
60. Shane McColgan, RW Kelowna (WHL) -50
Miller is not really a "faller" dropping down two spots from 9 to 11, but we've heard whispers that he was too highly ranked by RLR all season. After his superb U18 performance, we wouldn't be surprised to see him jump back into the top-10 for May, given how close he is.
Musil and Saad are two players who are clearly sliding, but could prove to be nice value picks later in the first round. We don't believe they'll drop out of the top-30 altogether, but given the expectations for them coming into the 2010-11 campaign, they've regressed. Thing is, they both have such impressive natural talent, that if they reverse the developmental trend, they could end up being very good NHL players. We like Saad's upside better, and we hear that the situation he's dealing with in Saginaw may have a lot more to do with it than his not being able to play at the highest level. He could use a change of scenery.
Rask may have slowed his descent a bit with a strong Under-18 performance for Team Sweden, but he's still a 1st-round wildcard. His season hasn't warranted being picked in the top-30, but if scouts believe that the 16-17-YO Rask they saw last season and was seen more in the 2011 U18 tourney is more of what to expect from him, you have to think someone will grab him between 20-30.
Ambroz has withered on the vine- he's the classic case of a physically dominant kid who emerged three years ago, but has not progressed much, while a good number of the kids in his peer group caught him and passed him. Last year, Ambroz would have been a slam-dunk top-10 pick had he been eligible. But, with another full year to dissect and nitpick his game, look at his ugly skating stride and lack of acceleration, plus hear stories about how he's passed on summertime opportunities to improve his game, this Minnesotan will be lucky to be a second-round pick. We believe someone will take him there simply because there is still a lot of raw potential with him, but it would have to be a club with extra picks to risk on a reclamation project with a questionable work ethic. Don't be surprised if he drops into the third round, though.
Finally, McColgan got off to a horrendous start after having surgery to remove his tonsils on the eve of the season and taking a good 1.5 months to settle in. Already small and not having much room to add mass to his frame, he's a risky pick to begin with, but when you get down to it, there isn't a whole lot of difference between McColgan and Grimaldi. In fact, it's almost astounding to see the two have juxtaposed their positioning, with McColgan being the top-10 guy before the season and now down where Grimaldi was. The difference? We have to believe it is Grimaldi's production and the fact that he hit the ground running from the start of the season. McColgan is not chopped liver- he's still a skilled, dynamic little winger with some serious offensive skills. His strong finish with the Rockets should keep him from falling off the map too much on draft day.
For more on Red Line Report, you can visit the website.
The draft guide will be coming out in early June and will feature in-depth scouting reports on the top-110 or so draft prospects, plus team draft analysis, mock drafts and the ever-popular awards section.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
NHL Draft Video link: The Ecstasy of Gold
Our friend Jerome B. over at NHL Draft Video blog has a sweet highlight film of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft's top players posted on You Tube.
You can watch the video here.
He does a nice job using Metallica's version of the Ennio Morricone classic track from "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly" soundtrack. It's the perfect music to set to some of these majestic hockey plays.
Nice job, Jerome and merci for all the great videos you've posted on your blog all season.
You can watch the video here.
He does a nice job using Metallica's version of the Ennio Morricone classic track from "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly" soundtrack. It's the perfect music to set to some of these majestic hockey plays.
Nice job, Jerome and merci for all the great videos you've posted on your blog all season.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Nation Radio Archive: BruinsDraftWatch featured guest, April 16
Last weekend we went on Allan Mitchell's Nation Radio show, which is broadcast on Team 1260 in Edmonton every Saturday.
Click on this link to visit the Nation Radio website to hear to interview.
In it, we're talking Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Dougie Hamilton and some of the Team USA guys at the Under-18s like Rocco Grimaldi Connor Murphy and John Gibson. We close out the segment with talk about one of our favorite sleepers- Belmont Hill winger Jimmy Vesey and the intriguing Moose Jaw gigantor D Joel Edmundson.
As always, it's a pleasure to go on with Allan, whose Lowetide blog is one of the most respected and popular hockey blogs out there.
Click on this link to visit the Nation Radio website to hear to interview.
In it, we're talking Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Dougie Hamilton and some of the Team USA guys at the Under-18s like Rocco Grimaldi Connor Murphy and John Gibson. We close out the segment with talk about one of our favorite sleepers- Belmont Hill winger Jimmy Vesey and the intriguing Moose Jaw gigantor D Joel Edmundson.
As always, it's a pleasure to go on with Allan, whose Lowetide blog is one of the most respected and popular hockey blogs out there.
Monday, April 11, 2011
Central releases final rankings: Nugent-Hopkins headlines class; top-10 analysis
To nobody's surprise, Red Deer Rebels center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sits atop the NHL Central Scouting Service's final rankings for North American skaters for the 2010-11 season. The list was released today, and featured some interesting movement, as RNH moved up to the top spot from his mid-term position of No. 3 after a tremendous second half that saw him hit the century mark for points (31 goals, 106 points) to tie Ryan Strome for most points by a CHL draft eligible this season.
You can see the entire list here, but this post will attempt to shed some light on some key areas until we can track down some NHL sources to weigh in with their opinions.
RNH is a dynamic, game-breaking talent who belongs at the top of the list. Some have made interesting observations about his production, both predominant success with the man advantage and in terms of him requiring room to operate. In all honesty, the NHL and independent scouts we've spoken to have raved about his pure skill and ability to get it done, so the only real concern with him right now is putting some size on his very slender frame. Even with some of the doubts, RNH has still managed to put the puck in the net and set up myriad other goals, so as far as we're concerned, he deserves his spot atop the NA skaters list.
His ascendance displaces Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog, whose club was knocked out of the first round of the OHL playoffs in seven games by the upstart Plymouth Whalers. Landeskog is No. 2 after a 36-goal, 66-point season hampered by a high ankle sprain suffered in December, which kept him out of the World Jr. Championship in Buffalo and forced him to miss about six weeks.
Jonathan Huberdeau moved up one spot from his fourth spot at mid-term, and the Saint John Sea Dogs standout with his 105 points is primed to land inside the top-five or just outside if he drops slightly.
The first two defensemen in North America appear at 4th and 5th- Dougie Hamilton, who has been steadily tracked all year on this blog, and Nathan Beaulieu, another member of the juggernaut Saint John team that steamrolled the QMJHL this season. Hamilton is 6-4 and skates very well, though some scouts question his vision and hockey sense (yet he still managed to score 58 points this season). Beaulieu isn't as big as Hamilton, but has excellent skating and puck moving ability, some nastiness and might be a little more rounded at this stage than Hamilton is.
Sean Couturier fell down to No. 6 on the list, which is consistent with some of the buzz we've been hearing on him. However, it's hard to imagine he'll fall very far come draft day. He's simply too big, talented and promising to take a major nosedive as other highly-touted prospects have done in the past. He's not the best skater, but let's be frank: it's not a major flaw and is correctible with some work on mechanics. He has the size and power to be a legitimate power forward and top-six player for years in this league, and we don't put a lot of stock in his WJC performance because of the role he was given. Yes, he could have produced more because the opportunities were there for him, and that was noted back in January when we published our notes. But at the same time, the fact that he generated those scoring chances counts as well. He battled mononucleosis which has a debilitating effect on any athlete, so in our view Couturier is not going to have the kind of fall the rumor mongers will predict for him. If he gets out of the top-five, then whoever snags him shortly thereafter is getting some nice value.
We're surprised to see Swiss winger Sven Bartschi ahead of Ryan Strome on the list at 7 and 8, however. Strome is someone who produced from wire to wire and lost the OHL scoring championship on the very last day of the season when Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson had big days. Bartschi is skilled, but he's on the small side and we don't like his perimeter game. Strome can do a little bit of everything and has some real high-end hockey sense and a nonstop motor. We're highly doubtful that Bartschi will get picked ahead of Strome on June 24, though we do feel Bartschi is a solid first-round player.
Two intriguing defensemen are 9th and 10th on the list: Ryan Murphy, whom we profiled in detail here last week, and the player this blog has more posts on than anyone else, needs no major introduction if you're a long-time reader of this space. His lack of size and functional strength continue to be the only drawbacks to this player, who tore it up in the first-round loss to Plymouth and convinced several NHL scouts we've talked to, among others in the independent community, that he deserves to be closer to 5 than 10 on draft day. We believe that the Bruins have a genuine interest in Murphy among other players, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Duncan Siemens is more the thunder to Murphy's lightning. If Murphy is the small, dynamic guy, Siemens brings the lumber with his mobility and tough edge. A very good skater lacking only minor issues (and even that is debateable), Siemens may not have Murphy's game-breaking element, but he's big, fiery and has some upside. A player who can do it all including fight, he was actually seen on camera giving Murphy fighting tips when the two played together on Team Cherry during the CHL Top Prospects Game. Siemens dropped the gloves with David Musil in that game and is one of those guys who at first doesn't seem like much, but really grows on you in time. At nearly 6-3, and 192 pounds, he has a lot of room to grow, and scouts love his zeal and passion for the game.
As you can see from the top-10, this is a pretty solid class. We'll have much more later this evening, when we break down more of the North American skaters, but we wanted to get this post up and to you for quick digestion before we take on the bulk of the list in the next post.
You can see the entire list here, but this post will attempt to shed some light on some key areas until we can track down some NHL sources to weigh in with their opinions.
RNH is a dynamic, game-breaking talent who belongs at the top of the list. Some have made interesting observations about his production, both predominant success with the man advantage and in terms of him requiring room to operate. In all honesty, the NHL and independent scouts we've spoken to have raved about his pure skill and ability to get it done, so the only real concern with him right now is putting some size on his very slender frame. Even with some of the doubts, RNH has still managed to put the puck in the net and set up myriad other goals, so as far as we're concerned, he deserves his spot atop the NA skaters list.
His ascendance displaces Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog, whose club was knocked out of the first round of the OHL playoffs in seven games by the upstart Plymouth Whalers. Landeskog is No. 2 after a 36-goal, 66-point season hampered by a high ankle sprain suffered in December, which kept him out of the World Jr. Championship in Buffalo and forced him to miss about six weeks.
Jonathan Huberdeau moved up one spot from his fourth spot at mid-term, and the Saint John Sea Dogs standout with his 105 points is primed to land inside the top-five or just outside if he drops slightly.
The first two defensemen in North America appear at 4th and 5th- Dougie Hamilton, who has been steadily tracked all year on this blog, and Nathan Beaulieu, another member of the juggernaut Saint John team that steamrolled the QMJHL this season. Hamilton is 6-4 and skates very well, though some scouts question his vision and hockey sense (yet he still managed to score 58 points this season). Beaulieu isn't as big as Hamilton, but has excellent skating and puck moving ability, some nastiness and might be a little more rounded at this stage than Hamilton is.
Sean Couturier fell down to No. 6 on the list, which is consistent with some of the buzz we've been hearing on him. However, it's hard to imagine he'll fall very far come draft day. He's simply too big, talented and promising to take a major nosedive as other highly-touted prospects have done in the past. He's not the best skater, but let's be frank: it's not a major flaw and is correctible with some work on mechanics. He has the size and power to be a legitimate power forward and top-six player for years in this league, and we don't put a lot of stock in his WJC performance because of the role he was given. Yes, he could have produced more because the opportunities were there for him, and that was noted back in January when we published our notes. But at the same time, the fact that he generated those scoring chances counts as well. He battled mononucleosis which has a debilitating effect on any athlete, so in our view Couturier is not going to have the kind of fall the rumor mongers will predict for him. If he gets out of the top-five, then whoever snags him shortly thereafter is getting some nice value.
We're surprised to see Swiss winger Sven Bartschi ahead of Ryan Strome on the list at 7 and 8, however. Strome is someone who produced from wire to wire and lost the OHL scoring championship on the very last day of the season when Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson had big days. Bartschi is skilled, but he's on the small side and we don't like his perimeter game. Strome can do a little bit of everything and has some real high-end hockey sense and a nonstop motor. We're highly doubtful that Bartschi will get picked ahead of Strome on June 24, though we do feel Bartschi is a solid first-round player.
Two intriguing defensemen are 9th and 10th on the list: Ryan Murphy, whom we profiled in detail here last week, and the player this blog has more posts on than anyone else, needs no major introduction if you're a long-time reader of this space. His lack of size and functional strength continue to be the only drawbacks to this player, who tore it up in the first-round loss to Plymouth and convinced several NHL scouts we've talked to, among others in the independent community, that he deserves to be closer to 5 than 10 on draft day. We believe that the Bruins have a genuine interest in Murphy among other players, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Duncan Siemens is more the thunder to Murphy's lightning. If Murphy is the small, dynamic guy, Siemens brings the lumber with his mobility and tough edge. A very good skater lacking only minor issues (and even that is debateable), Siemens may not have Murphy's game-breaking element, but he's big, fiery and has some upside. A player who can do it all including fight, he was actually seen on camera giving Murphy fighting tips when the two played together on Team Cherry during the CHL Top Prospects Game. Siemens dropped the gloves with David Musil in that game and is one of those guys who at first doesn't seem like much, but really grows on you in time. At nearly 6-3, and 192 pounds, he has a lot of room to grow, and scouts love his zeal and passion for the game.
As you can see from the top-10, this is a pretty solid class. We'll have much more later this evening, when we break down more of the North American skaters, but we wanted to get this post up and to you for quick digestion before we take on the bulk of the list in the next post.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
QMJHL 2010-11 regular season roundup
It has been a pretty good year for the QMJHL in terms of draft eligible talents.
We saw the cream rise to the top, and although Sean Couturier has fallen down some of the lists out there, we're not buying that he'll make too much of a free-fall on draft day. He could possibly fall out of the top-three, sure- but beyond that, he shouldn't last long.
The big winner in the QMJHL regular season in 2010-11 was the Saint John Sea Dogs, who boast a plethora of draft eligible talent, headlined by Jonathan Huberdeau, who we made a case for Boston drafting on this blog space last month. You can check it out here if you haven't read it. The Sea Dogs ran away with the regular season title and are Memorial Cup frontrunners given their impressive depth. They are also a playoff-tested team, having advanced all the way to the President's Cup championship last spring before bowing out to the Moncton Wildcats. Barring a major upset, the 'Dogs should be Mississauga-bound in May.
You can go all the way back to August and look at who was on our QMJHL watch list before the season and see that Jonathan Huberdeau was the big winner. He really came on this year and had a tremendous performance. Conversely, what the hell happened to Andrei Makarov? In fairness, he had a rough transition and played much better for Lewiston at the end of the year- he may have done enough to get a mid- or late-round call, but the big winner for Q goalies this season was Christopher Gibson.
Here's a quick look at some of the top QMJHL draft eligibles and where they sit going into the postseason. If you see a lot of Saint John guys on the list, your eyes do not deceive you.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW Saint John- We knew this guy was a talented playmaker coming into the season, but what we didn't know was just how good he would be at putting the puck in the net. Huberdeau led all 2011 draft eligibles in the CHL in goal scoring this season with 43 markers. He finished the year third overall in league scoring with 105 points in 67 games. He's the complete package of physical tools, hockey skills and sense with a natural knack for scoring. Versatile; spent most of the season on the left wing, but is a natural center. NHL teams like multi-taskers. He's also a mature kid who carries himself well and exudes professionalism. There is no reason to think that Huberdeau can't crack the top-5 in June when all is said and done, but if he doesn't he's gone no later than 6 or 7. He reminds us a lot of Luc Robitaille in the way he comes off during interviews, and we can't imagine he's going to drop much if at all when the draft comes.
Stock watch: Blue-chip; only a complete dud of a playoff performance is going to hurt Huberdeau's draft prospects, and frankly, we don't see that happening. If Saint John makes its expected deep run, Huberdeau could be the Taylor Hall of the 2011 postseason in terms of a guy who scouts see well into May and therefore leaves a fresh and lasting impression leading into the draft.
Here's an interview with Huberdeau and Beaulieu at CHL Top Prospects Game
2. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville- Every year there seems to be a player at or near the top who falls off for whatever reason. Couturier is that guy, even thoughhe finished just behind Huberdeau in league scoring at the fourth spot. He's got a nice 6-4, 195-pound frame and has the hands and instincts to be a scorer at the next level. What is hurting him most are his heavy feet, but you can expect that he will spend a lot of time with power skating instructors between now and whenever he's knocking on the NHL door to remedy that shortcoming. We're not buying the argument that because his father was a journeyman, Couturier might be bound for the same NHL fate- just look at Sidney Crosby. NHL teams aren't spending much time using that as a major sticking point as to whether to draft Couturier or not. Two straight years of 96 points should be convincing enough evidence that this kid can get it done offensively.
Stock Watch: We wouldn't say he's falling as much as other guys around him have played so well that Couturier's star has lost its luster a bit. A strong postseason would go a long way toward quieting the critics and re-establishing himself as one of the top players in class.
For more on Couturier, you can catch this video on him done for the CHL Top Prospects Game in January.
3. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John- Superb two-way defenseman may be the one guy not being talked about with Dougie Hamilton and Duncan Siemens, but could crack the top-10 of the draft if a team likes him enough. The Ontario-born, Maritimes-raised Beaulieu is not quite as big as Hamilton, but is a good skater who can hit, pass and shoot. He's got a real nasty edge to him, too. He'll fight, but doesn't do it all that often after creating some space for himself in some one-sided bouts. Smart player and son of a London Knights assistant coach, his 12 goals and 45 points and a plus-44 are numbers that may be inflated given how good his team was this season, but this guy has some legitimate potential and should be off the board by pick 15 at the latest. Of course, you never know- we would have never believed that both of Brandon Gormley and Cam Fowler would drop as far as he did?
Stock Watch: So long as Saint John is playing, Beaulieu's got a nice chance of raising his profile and moving up in the draft. Like Huberdeau, the playoffs could be this guy's big moment to make a push to be the second d-man off the board after Adam Larsson.
Here's an NHL-produced video on Beaulieu with some interesting background.
4. Zack Phillips, C Saint John- With 38 goals and 95 points, Phillips was one of the surprises to come out of the Quebec league this season. Although he's not a great skater, Phillips is the classic guy who has that "nose for the net" and just finds ways to finish even without the blazing speed. He and Huberdeau were a deadly duo this season, and pure scorers like Phillips always find a way to get it done. The question with a guy like him is whether his numbers are more a product of the superior club he was on, or a reflection of his own superior offensive instincts and quick release. We think it's the latter- he's going to produce no matter who you put him with.
Stock Watch: With his production, it's up, but like Huberdeau and Beaulieu, he needs a strong playoff performance to stay foremost in scouts' minds.
Here's an Open Ice interview of Phillips from the CHL Top Prospects Game. Sharp kid and former Deerfield Academy product.
5. Tomas Jurco, RW Saint John- This puck wizard's exploits are well-documented on YouTube, but this has been a bit of a disappointing campaign for the Slovak. Expected to be a top-five pick in 2011 in some circles after his impressive rookie season a year ago, his production was up-and-down. He finished with 31 goals and 56 points, but was a streaky player in doing so, getting off to a hot start, fading in the late fall/early winter before heating up again in February. His hands could be without peer in this draft, and we liked what we saw in flashes from him at the WJC. He may not crack the first round, but if he isn't a top-30 pick, he shouldn't last much into the second.
Here's a video on Jurco produced during CHL Top Prospects Game where you'll see his puck and stick sleight-of-hand for yourself
6. Phillip Danault, C/LW Victoriaville- Speedy and versatile forward has a high compete level that has become his calling card this season despite some pretty average size. At only 6-0 and about 170 he doesn't have the functional strength right now, and some are concerned about his frame and how much more room he has to grow. Still, he's been pretty productive with 23 goals and 66 points this season. He's kind of like the little engine that could and if he goes in the top-60 picks, then you'll have your answer as to whether an NHL team thinks he projects as a legitimate pro. If he slips, then the wildcard element of this prospect will be more in play. His skating, hands and creativity are impressive, so don't bet against this guy.
Here's a nice video on Danault from John Moore, who does very good work in Q
7. Christopher Gibson, G Chicoutimi-Finnish goaltender put up some nice numbers on a pretty mediocre club this season. He posted a 14-14-3-5 record with 2.41 GAA, .920 save percentage and 4 shutouts. He's about 6-1, 200 pounds and plays that classic butterfly style, blotting out a large portion of the net and daring shooters to find holes through his coverage. Gibson is a driven kid who came to Canada two years ago to play for the Notre Dame Hounds in Saskatchewan (where he won a minor midget national title) and has stuck around to gain the trust of NHL scouts. We think he'll be one of the first three goalies taken in this draft, and our gut feel is he'll be three behind American John Gibson and countryman Samu Perhonen.
Here's another nice John Moore video on Gibson for your review
8. Ryan Tesink, C Saint John- The very average-sized hometown player has some interesting upside. Tesink's numbers are nothing to write home about- he scored just 8 goals on the season, with two of them coming in the team's final game of the year against PEI (went 37 previous games without one before breaking out). More of a playmaker (27 assists in 59 games playing on the third line), he's got good speed and is an intelligent two-way player. It's hard to stand out when you play on a stacked team like he does, but when he gets stronger (he's about 6-0, and only 160 pounds or so) and more experienced, you could see a jump in the production. He's even willing to drop the gloves and fight, though because of his size, he's not exactly suited for such endeavors. Still, you have to admire his willingness- he's one of those "whatever it takes to win" guys. Interesting player who gets lost in the shuffle of Saint John's galaxy of stars, but could be a real good one soon.
9. Logan Shaw, RW Cape Breton- Big hometown kid makes his B2011DW debut today, surprisingly enough. The skilled right winger has quietly impressed playing in one of the league's backwaters. He's got a long, powerful stride and while he needs to upgrade his first couple of steps, he's got nice speed when he gets going and really came on after December, scoring 26 goals and 46 points in 68 games for the Screaming Eagles. Guys with his 6-3 frame and quick hands usually end up being in pretty high demand. It will be interesting to see if he can crack the top-three rounds in June.
Here's Shaw's QMHJL draft video from 2008
10. David Honzik, G Victoriaville- Big, athletic Czech goalie has had an up-and-down season for les Tigres, but he's got some tools to be a good one down the road. He's got very good size at 6-3, 195 and has extremely quick pads. He's working on his rebound control and overall consistency, but so long as a team is patient and willing to put in the time to develop him, he's got the skill to make it as a big league puck stopper eventually.
Here's another John Moore vid on David Honzik
11. Xavier Ouellet, D Montreal- Average-sized defenseman isn't a great skater, but sees the ice well and has a good head on his shoulders. A strong passer and puck-mover, the risk for Ouellet, who started the season like a house on fire, is that he just doesn't have the size or feet to be a defenseman at the highest level. Evidence to support that belief amongst some in the scouting community was his poor performance in the CHL Top Prospects Game.
Thanks to Jerome B for providing a vid of a Ouellet goal via his NHLDraftVideo blog
Late riser:
Troy Vance, D Victoriaville- American defender is 6-5, 205 and kind of came out of nowhere after starting the season in Rouyn-Noranda. He's a big hitter, meat-and-potatoes type who will drop the gloves. From what we've seen, he reminds us a lot of Bruins rookie Adam McQuaid, but with a little better mobility than Quaider at the same stage of his junior career.
Overagers worth a look:
Marek Hrivik, LW Moncton- Yes, again. We'll ring the bell on this Slovak, who scored 38 for the Wildcats this season for the second straight season. He's a '91 and in his final year of eligibility for the draft. We liked what we saw from him at the WJC this past winter, and although he has a reputation for being soft and not being willing to go into traffic, we saw none of that from him in Buffalo. He has a bomb of a shot, even if his feet are a bit heavy.
Tomas Filippi, RW Quebec- Passed over last year because of perceived indifference and inconsistency issues, this Czech forward has had a better time of stringing effective shifts and games together in the Q. He's a speedster who creates offense and plays a high tempo game. Why not?
Alex Saulnier, C Moncton- Undersized, but ultra-skilled and creative pivot is out with a concussion suffered recently, so durability concerns are raised with him off the bat. But prior to the hit, he was one of the QMJHL's top scorers (85 points in 65 games) and had really impressed by stepping up his game to another level this season.
We saw the cream rise to the top, and although Sean Couturier has fallen down some of the lists out there, we're not buying that he'll make too much of a free-fall on draft day. He could possibly fall out of the top-three, sure- but beyond that, he shouldn't last long.
The big winner in the QMJHL regular season in 2010-11 was the Saint John Sea Dogs, who boast a plethora of draft eligible talent, headlined by Jonathan Huberdeau, who we made a case for Boston drafting on this blog space last month. You can check it out here if you haven't read it. The Sea Dogs ran away with the regular season title and are Memorial Cup frontrunners given their impressive depth. They are also a playoff-tested team, having advanced all the way to the President's Cup championship last spring before bowing out to the Moncton Wildcats. Barring a major upset, the 'Dogs should be Mississauga-bound in May.
You can go all the way back to August and look at who was on our QMJHL watch list before the season and see that Jonathan Huberdeau was the big winner. He really came on this year and had a tremendous performance. Conversely, what the hell happened to Andrei Makarov? In fairness, he had a rough transition and played much better for Lewiston at the end of the year- he may have done enough to get a mid- or late-round call, but the big winner for Q goalies this season was Christopher Gibson.
Here's a quick look at some of the top QMJHL draft eligibles and where they sit going into the postseason. If you see a lot of Saint John guys on the list, your eyes do not deceive you.
1. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW Saint John- We knew this guy was a talented playmaker coming into the season, but what we didn't know was just how good he would be at putting the puck in the net. Huberdeau led all 2011 draft eligibles in the CHL in goal scoring this season with 43 markers. He finished the year third overall in league scoring with 105 points in 67 games. He's the complete package of physical tools, hockey skills and sense with a natural knack for scoring. Versatile; spent most of the season on the left wing, but is a natural center. NHL teams like multi-taskers. He's also a mature kid who carries himself well and exudes professionalism. There is no reason to think that Huberdeau can't crack the top-5 in June when all is said and done, but if he doesn't he's gone no later than 6 or 7. He reminds us a lot of Luc Robitaille in the way he comes off during interviews, and we can't imagine he's going to drop much if at all when the draft comes.
Stock watch: Blue-chip; only a complete dud of a playoff performance is going to hurt Huberdeau's draft prospects, and frankly, we don't see that happening. If Saint John makes its expected deep run, Huberdeau could be the Taylor Hall of the 2011 postseason in terms of a guy who scouts see well into May and therefore leaves a fresh and lasting impression leading into the draft.
Here's an interview with Huberdeau and Beaulieu at CHL Top Prospects Game
2. Sean Couturier, C Drummondville- Every year there seems to be a player at or near the top who falls off for whatever reason. Couturier is that guy, even thoughhe finished just behind Huberdeau in league scoring at the fourth spot. He's got a nice 6-4, 195-pound frame and has the hands and instincts to be a scorer at the next level. What is hurting him most are his heavy feet, but you can expect that he will spend a lot of time with power skating instructors between now and whenever he's knocking on the NHL door to remedy that shortcoming. We're not buying the argument that because his father was a journeyman, Couturier might be bound for the same NHL fate- just look at Sidney Crosby. NHL teams aren't spending much time using that as a major sticking point as to whether to draft Couturier or not. Two straight years of 96 points should be convincing enough evidence that this kid can get it done offensively.
Stock Watch: We wouldn't say he's falling as much as other guys around him have played so well that Couturier's star has lost its luster a bit. A strong postseason would go a long way toward quieting the critics and re-establishing himself as one of the top players in class.
For more on Couturier, you can catch this video on him done for the CHL Top Prospects Game in January.
3. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John- Superb two-way defenseman may be the one guy not being talked about with Dougie Hamilton and Duncan Siemens, but could crack the top-10 of the draft if a team likes him enough. The Ontario-born, Maritimes-raised Beaulieu is not quite as big as Hamilton, but is a good skater who can hit, pass and shoot. He's got a real nasty edge to him, too. He'll fight, but doesn't do it all that often after creating some space for himself in some one-sided bouts. Smart player and son of a London Knights assistant coach, his 12 goals and 45 points and a plus-44 are numbers that may be inflated given how good his team was this season, but this guy has some legitimate potential and should be off the board by pick 15 at the latest. Of course, you never know- we would have never believed that both of Brandon Gormley and Cam Fowler would drop as far as he did?
Stock Watch: So long as Saint John is playing, Beaulieu's got a nice chance of raising his profile and moving up in the draft. Like Huberdeau, the playoffs could be this guy's big moment to make a push to be the second d-man off the board after Adam Larsson.
Here's an NHL-produced video on Beaulieu with some interesting background.
4. Zack Phillips, C Saint John- With 38 goals and 95 points, Phillips was one of the surprises to come out of the Quebec league this season. Although he's not a great skater, Phillips is the classic guy who has that "nose for the net" and just finds ways to finish even without the blazing speed. He and Huberdeau were a deadly duo this season, and pure scorers like Phillips always find a way to get it done. The question with a guy like him is whether his numbers are more a product of the superior club he was on, or a reflection of his own superior offensive instincts and quick release. We think it's the latter- he's going to produce no matter who you put him with.
Stock Watch: With his production, it's up, but like Huberdeau and Beaulieu, he needs a strong playoff performance to stay foremost in scouts' minds.
Here's an Open Ice interview of Phillips from the CHL Top Prospects Game. Sharp kid and former Deerfield Academy product.
5. Tomas Jurco, RW Saint John- This puck wizard's exploits are well-documented on YouTube, but this has been a bit of a disappointing campaign for the Slovak. Expected to be a top-five pick in 2011 in some circles after his impressive rookie season a year ago, his production was up-and-down. He finished with 31 goals and 56 points, but was a streaky player in doing so, getting off to a hot start, fading in the late fall/early winter before heating up again in February. His hands could be without peer in this draft, and we liked what we saw in flashes from him at the WJC. He may not crack the first round, but if he isn't a top-30 pick, he shouldn't last much into the second.
Here's a video on Jurco produced during CHL Top Prospects Game where you'll see his puck and stick sleight-of-hand for yourself
6. Phillip Danault, C/LW Victoriaville- Speedy and versatile forward has a high compete level that has become his calling card this season despite some pretty average size. At only 6-0 and about 170 he doesn't have the functional strength right now, and some are concerned about his frame and how much more room he has to grow. Still, he's been pretty productive with 23 goals and 66 points this season. He's kind of like the little engine that could and if he goes in the top-60 picks, then you'll have your answer as to whether an NHL team thinks he projects as a legitimate pro. If he slips, then the wildcard element of this prospect will be more in play. His skating, hands and creativity are impressive, so don't bet against this guy.
Here's a nice video on Danault from John Moore, who does very good work in Q
7. Christopher Gibson, G Chicoutimi-Finnish goaltender put up some nice numbers on a pretty mediocre club this season. He posted a 14-14-3-5 record with 2.41 GAA, .920 save percentage and 4 shutouts. He's about 6-1, 200 pounds and plays that classic butterfly style, blotting out a large portion of the net and daring shooters to find holes through his coverage. Gibson is a driven kid who came to Canada two years ago to play for the Notre Dame Hounds in Saskatchewan (where he won a minor midget national title) and has stuck around to gain the trust of NHL scouts. We think he'll be one of the first three goalies taken in this draft, and our gut feel is he'll be three behind American John Gibson and countryman Samu Perhonen.
Here's another nice John Moore video on Gibson for your review
8. Ryan Tesink, C Saint John- The very average-sized hometown player has some interesting upside. Tesink's numbers are nothing to write home about- he scored just 8 goals on the season, with two of them coming in the team's final game of the year against PEI (went 37 previous games without one before breaking out). More of a playmaker (27 assists in 59 games playing on the third line), he's got good speed and is an intelligent two-way player. It's hard to stand out when you play on a stacked team like he does, but when he gets stronger (he's about 6-0, and only 160 pounds or so) and more experienced, you could see a jump in the production. He's even willing to drop the gloves and fight, though because of his size, he's not exactly suited for such endeavors. Still, you have to admire his willingness- he's one of those "whatever it takes to win" guys. Interesting player who gets lost in the shuffle of Saint John's galaxy of stars, but could be a real good one soon.
9. Logan Shaw, RW Cape Breton- Big hometown kid makes his B2011DW debut today, surprisingly enough. The skilled right winger has quietly impressed playing in one of the league's backwaters. He's got a long, powerful stride and while he needs to upgrade his first couple of steps, he's got nice speed when he gets going and really came on after December, scoring 26 goals and 46 points in 68 games for the Screaming Eagles. Guys with his 6-3 frame and quick hands usually end up being in pretty high demand. It will be interesting to see if he can crack the top-three rounds in June.
Here's Shaw's QMHJL draft video from 2008
10. David Honzik, G Victoriaville- Big, athletic Czech goalie has had an up-and-down season for les Tigres, but he's got some tools to be a good one down the road. He's got very good size at 6-3, 195 and has extremely quick pads. He's working on his rebound control and overall consistency, but so long as a team is patient and willing to put in the time to develop him, he's got the skill to make it as a big league puck stopper eventually.
Here's another John Moore vid on David Honzik
11. Xavier Ouellet, D Montreal- Average-sized defenseman isn't a great skater, but sees the ice well and has a good head on his shoulders. A strong passer and puck-mover, the risk for Ouellet, who started the season like a house on fire, is that he just doesn't have the size or feet to be a defenseman at the highest level. Evidence to support that belief amongst some in the scouting community was his poor performance in the CHL Top Prospects Game.
Thanks to Jerome B for providing a vid of a Ouellet goal via his NHLDraftVideo blog
Late riser:
Troy Vance, D Victoriaville- American defender is 6-5, 205 and kind of came out of nowhere after starting the season in Rouyn-Noranda. He's a big hitter, meat-and-potatoes type who will drop the gloves. From what we've seen, he reminds us a lot of Bruins rookie Adam McQuaid, but with a little better mobility than Quaider at the same stage of his junior career.
Overagers worth a look:
Marek Hrivik, LW Moncton- Yes, again. We'll ring the bell on this Slovak, who scored 38 for the Wildcats this season for the second straight season. He's a '91 and in his final year of eligibility for the draft. We liked what we saw from him at the WJC this past winter, and although he has a reputation for being soft and not being willing to go into traffic, we saw none of that from him in Buffalo. He has a bomb of a shot, even if his feet are a bit heavy.
Tomas Filippi, RW Quebec- Passed over last year because of perceived indifference and inconsistency issues, this Czech forward has had a better time of stringing effective shifts and games together in the Q. He's a speedster who creates offense and plays a high tempo game. Why not?
Alex Saulnier, C Moncton- Undersized, but ultra-skilled and creative pivot is out with a concussion suffered recently, so durability concerns are raised with him off the bat. But prior to the hit, he was one of the QMJHL's top scorers (85 points in 65 games) and had really impressed by stepping up his game to another level this season.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
What Marc Savard's status does for Boston's draft strategy
Just a month ago, if you monitored draft conversations on the internet about the Boston Bruins and their approach to the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, you might have seen various folks talking about how the B's don't "need" centers and therefore wouldn't be likely to draft one with their top pick.
Well, all of that is now off the table given the announcement Monday that veteran pivot Marc Savard, after suffering a second concussion in less than 12 months, has been placed by the Bruins on Long Term Injured Reserve and will not play at all for the rest of the 2010-11 regular season and playoffs. Savard's NHL future is now in doubt, and supporters of the team and around the league can only now hope and pray that he can resume his passion and livelihood without any long-term consequences. The decision to return or retire is Savard's alone to make, so we can only stand by him as he wrestles with a new round of post-concussion symptoms from the hit delivered by former teammate Matt Hunwick in an innocuous-looking play a few weeks back.
From the team's perspective, this latest development has potentially far-reaching effects. With Savard now out, the question becomes whether GM Peter Chiarelli will go out and try to find a veteran solution up the middle via trade. He has 2007 top pick Zach Hamill on hand to give it a try, but the reception for the one-time eighth overall selection has been tepid at best. Hamill has not delivered on the promise the B's had for him when he led the WHL in scoring with 93 points and was picked one spot ahead of leading Calder Trophy contender Logan Couture as top NHL rookie. But if ever there was a chance for Hamill to step up and take advantage of a fleeting NHL opportunity, it is now.
Looking beyond this season, Tyler Seguin has all the makings of a top NHL centerman, and even prospect Ryan Spooner is an option at the position, as that his been his primary location as a junior in the OHL with the Peterborough Petes and Kingston Frontenacs. Jamie Arniel is another center who is believed to have a better projection on the wing as a pro, but could see that plan change if Savard does not return next season or, heaven forbid, suffers another setback.
What this means for the Bruins is that more than ever, they will adhere to the best player available (BPA) philosophy and where perhaps when Savard's health was not an issue, they may have looked to add a slightly less-ranked winger or defenseman over center given their depth at the time. Now, with the top pick, if a center was available to them with the Toronto selection, they will likely re-think that position and opt for the center if he's the top guy on their board.
Top picks are all about upside and taking a star player, and if that happens to be a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Sean Couturier available to the Bruins, it's hard to imagine they would opt for a player they have lower on their board even if it addresses more of a need. Even a player like Niagara center Ryan Strome could work his way into the mix depending on where that Toronto pick ends up.
This is not to say that the center is going to be a player the Bruins value more than whomever is available on the blue line or on the wing when the pick arrives, but based on current projections, there is the possibility that one of the top-ranked centermen could fall to Boston. If that happens, then understand that if the team opts for another center, they are taking the longer view that Savard may not in fact be in the equation, or at least if he is, will be on the downside of his productivity and will be one of those "day-to-day for life" players you can't count on to be there when needed most.
It's about acquiring top-end talent and assets-- not about addressing needs by settling on lesser-rated players. Savard's loss reinforces the importance of thinking strategically and not being short-sighted when it comes to building the organization.
Oh, and one final note- here's a genuine appeal to Savard to take all the time he needs to get well. You can't put a timetable on the recovery, but Savard has the rest of his life to consider in the decision to return to action next season or later. Legions of hockey fans are pulling for Savard and wish him the absolute best. Please get well, Savvy- that's the most important thing.
Well, all of that is now off the table given the announcement Monday that veteran pivot Marc Savard, after suffering a second concussion in less than 12 months, has been placed by the Bruins on Long Term Injured Reserve and will not play at all for the rest of the 2010-11 regular season and playoffs. Savard's NHL future is now in doubt, and supporters of the team and around the league can only now hope and pray that he can resume his passion and livelihood without any long-term consequences. The decision to return or retire is Savard's alone to make, so we can only stand by him as he wrestles with a new round of post-concussion symptoms from the hit delivered by former teammate Matt Hunwick in an innocuous-looking play a few weeks back.
From the team's perspective, this latest development has potentially far-reaching effects. With Savard now out, the question becomes whether GM Peter Chiarelli will go out and try to find a veteran solution up the middle via trade. He has 2007 top pick Zach Hamill on hand to give it a try, but the reception for the one-time eighth overall selection has been tepid at best. Hamill has not delivered on the promise the B's had for him when he led the WHL in scoring with 93 points and was picked one spot ahead of leading Calder Trophy contender Logan Couture as top NHL rookie. But if ever there was a chance for Hamill to step up and take advantage of a fleeting NHL opportunity, it is now.
Looking beyond this season, Tyler Seguin has all the makings of a top NHL centerman, and even prospect Ryan Spooner is an option at the position, as that his been his primary location as a junior in the OHL with the Peterborough Petes and Kingston Frontenacs. Jamie Arniel is another center who is believed to have a better projection on the wing as a pro, but could see that plan change if Savard does not return next season or, heaven forbid, suffers another setback.
What this means for the Bruins is that more than ever, they will adhere to the best player available (BPA) philosophy and where perhaps when Savard's health was not an issue, they may have looked to add a slightly less-ranked winger or defenseman over center given their depth at the time. Now, with the top pick, if a center was available to them with the Toronto selection, they will likely re-think that position and opt for the center if he's the top guy on their board.
Top picks are all about upside and taking a star player, and if that happens to be a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Sean Couturier available to the Bruins, it's hard to imagine they would opt for a player they have lower on their board even if it addresses more of a need. Even a player like Niagara center Ryan Strome could work his way into the mix depending on where that Toronto pick ends up.
This is not to say that the center is going to be a player the Bruins value more than whomever is available on the blue line or on the wing when the pick arrives, but based on current projections, there is the possibility that one of the top-ranked centermen could fall to Boston. If that happens, then understand that if the team opts for another center, they are taking the longer view that Savard may not in fact be in the equation, or at least if he is, will be on the downside of his productivity and will be one of those "day-to-day for life" players you can't count on to be there when needed most.
It's about acquiring top-end talent and assets-- not about addressing needs by settling on lesser-rated players. Savard's loss reinforces the importance of thinking strategically and not being short-sighted when it comes to building the organization.
Oh, and one final note- here's a genuine appeal to Savard to take all the time he needs to get well. You can't put a timetable on the recovery, but Savard has the rest of his life to consider in the decision to return to action next season or later. Legions of hockey fans are pulling for Savard and wish him the absolute best. Please get well, Savvy- that's the most important thing.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Waffle Watch: 2011 Boston Bruins draft pick update: 7 Feb.
The Waffle Watch is back for its regularly scheduled Monday run.
It's been an interesting week in the standings, and the latest out of Toronto surrounds the DRAMA between Phil Kessel and coach Ron Wilson in the wake of the Leafs' embarrassing 6-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday.
The Leafs had won two straight coming out of the All-Star break, and when goalie James Reimer shutout Carolina on Thursday, hope began to spring eternal in Leafland. That is, until Reimer got lit up by the Sabres (and ultimately pulled). But the real story was Kessel's postgame comments, where he said "Maybe it's not working out here" and said something to the effect that maybe a "change" was needed.
Now, I ask you, and Kessel sycophants need not apply here, because to be frank, not interested in the continued free passes given to the guy by that segment of folks who are incapable of being objective, but is anyone surprised at what is going on with Kessel in Toronto?
He's never been all that great at handling adversity, and that Leafs team has been a petri dish of discontent and underperformance ever since he arrived two Septembers ago. He wasn't crazy about the Boston environment and pressures associated with being a pro player in the Olde Towne, but being on the Leafs when things aren't going well has to be crushing for him. In retrospect, Brian Burke made the wrong call with Kessel- he's a complimentary piece, not a cornerstone. And Wilson has his own role to play in this, as his aloof, often combative style is not the best fit for a guy like Kessel who often needs some coddling from his coach.
Wilson demoted Kessel to the third line, which no doubt prompted Kessel to make his controversial postgame remarks-- red meat for the Toronto media and everyone else who felt that Kessel was a bad fit there.
It will be interesting to see what happens, but as of right now, Kessel is being outscored by the guy who was taken 45 spots after he was- Milan Lucic. Did anyone see that one coming in Vancouver back in '06? I sure didn't!
It doesn't appear that the Kessel-Leafs marriage is going to end well. Unfortunately for Burke, he's over a barrel; to trade Kessel would be to admit that he made the colossal mistake of surrendering three prime picks that would have been critical for his team's rebuild for a player whose faults are magnified when he's not doing what he does best: putting the puck in the net. Burke won't get anywhere near the kind of return for Kessel that he needs, so cutting bait is probably not feasible. His best option is probably to replace WIlson and hope that the next coach can connect with Kessel and get him going in the right direction, because as of right now, the player once known as "the Thrill" is really not much more than a "pill" now.
The New Jersey Devils are only five points from catching the Leafs in the standings, and are coming off a big statement win over Montreal on Sunday after blowing a late lead Friday to Florida (which in hindsight helped the waffle watch by giving the Panthers a bigger lead over Toronto). Ottawa is in free-fall plummet mode, and the Islanders and Oilers probably aren't going to mount much resistance. So, from a Boston perspective, ending up with the fourth overall selection come June would be a moral victory in of itself. Chances of winning the lottery are slim, but stranger things have happened. Finishing fourth still puts them in position to come away with Gabriel Landeskog, especially with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ripping it up of late with Red Deer. You could easily see a top-three of RNH, Adam Larsson and Sean Couturier when all is said and done.
Here's the latest in the standings if the season ended today:
1st Round
5th overall- Toronto (47 points; 21-26-5)- Completes Phil Kessel trade.
25th overall- Boston (67 points; 30-16-7) (Boston moves to 25th by virtue of third seed- Northeast Division lead with fewest points of division leaders even though technically lower than other teams in standings)
2nd Round
45th overall- Minnesota (59 points;27-20-5)- Completes Chuck Kobasew trade.
55th overall- Boston
3rd Round
77th overall- Phoenix (61 points; 26-19-9) - Completes Derek Morris trade.
Boston pick traded to Florida; Completes Nathan Horton deal
4th Round
115th overall- Boston
5th Round
145th overall- Boston
6th Round
175th overall- Boston
7th Round
186th overall- Florida (conditional 52 pts; 23-23-6)- Jeff LoVecchio, Jordan Knackstedt to Panthers for Sean Zimmerman, cond. 7th
Boston pick traded to Chicago (Zach Trotman)
It's been an interesting week in the standings, and the latest out of Toronto surrounds the DRAMA between Phil Kessel and coach Ron Wilson in the wake of the Leafs' embarrassing 6-2 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Saturday.
The Leafs had won two straight coming out of the All-Star break, and when goalie James Reimer shutout Carolina on Thursday, hope began to spring eternal in Leafland. That is, until Reimer got lit up by the Sabres (and ultimately pulled). But the real story was Kessel's postgame comments, where he said "Maybe it's not working out here" and said something to the effect that maybe a "change" was needed.
Now, I ask you, and Kessel sycophants need not apply here, because to be frank, not interested in the continued free passes given to the guy by that segment of folks who are incapable of being objective, but is anyone surprised at what is going on with Kessel in Toronto?
He's never been all that great at handling adversity, and that Leafs team has been a petri dish of discontent and underperformance ever since he arrived two Septembers ago. He wasn't crazy about the Boston environment and pressures associated with being a pro player in the Olde Towne, but being on the Leafs when things aren't going well has to be crushing for him. In retrospect, Brian Burke made the wrong call with Kessel- he's a complimentary piece, not a cornerstone. And Wilson has his own role to play in this, as his aloof, often combative style is not the best fit for a guy like Kessel who often needs some coddling from his coach.
Wilson demoted Kessel to the third line, which no doubt prompted Kessel to make his controversial postgame remarks-- red meat for the Toronto media and everyone else who felt that Kessel was a bad fit there.
It will be interesting to see what happens, but as of right now, Kessel is being outscored by the guy who was taken 45 spots after he was- Milan Lucic. Did anyone see that one coming in Vancouver back in '06? I sure didn't!
It doesn't appear that the Kessel-Leafs marriage is going to end well. Unfortunately for Burke, he's over a barrel; to trade Kessel would be to admit that he made the colossal mistake of surrendering three prime picks that would have been critical for his team's rebuild for a player whose faults are magnified when he's not doing what he does best: putting the puck in the net. Burke won't get anywhere near the kind of return for Kessel that he needs, so cutting bait is probably not feasible. His best option is probably to replace WIlson and hope that the next coach can connect with Kessel and get him going in the right direction, because as of right now, the player once known as "the Thrill" is really not much more than a "pill" now.
The New Jersey Devils are only five points from catching the Leafs in the standings, and are coming off a big statement win over Montreal on Sunday after blowing a late lead Friday to Florida (which in hindsight helped the waffle watch by giving the Panthers a bigger lead over Toronto). Ottawa is in free-fall plummet mode, and the Islanders and Oilers probably aren't going to mount much resistance. So, from a Boston perspective, ending up with the fourth overall selection come June would be a moral victory in of itself. Chances of winning the lottery are slim, but stranger things have happened. Finishing fourth still puts them in position to come away with Gabriel Landeskog, especially with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ripping it up of late with Red Deer. You could easily see a top-three of RNH, Adam Larsson and Sean Couturier when all is said and done.
Here's the latest in the standings if the season ended today:
1st Round
5th overall- Toronto (47 points; 21-26-5)- Completes Phil Kessel trade.
25th overall- Boston (67 points; 30-16-7) (Boston moves to 25th by virtue of third seed- Northeast Division lead with fewest points of division leaders even though technically lower than other teams in standings)
2nd Round
45th overall- Minnesota (59 points;27-20-5)- Completes Chuck Kobasew trade.
55th overall- Boston
3rd Round
77th overall- Phoenix (61 points; 26-19-9) - Completes Derek Morris trade.
Boston pick traded to Florida; Completes Nathan Horton deal
4th Round
115th overall- Boston
5th Round
145th overall- Boston
6th Round
175th overall- Boston
7th Round
186th overall- Florida (conditional 52 pts; 23-23-6)- Jeff LoVecchio, Jordan Knackstedt to Panthers for Sean Zimmerman, cond. 7th
Boston pick traded to Chicago (Zach Trotman)
Sunday, January 30, 2011
QMJHL roundup: Couturier dominates, Sea Dogs keep trucking along
Drummondville center Sean Couturier had a bangup night against his dad's Acadie-Bathurst Titan (that's Patrice Bergeron's old junior club as all you hardcore draftniks out there certainly recall), posting a pair of goals and five points. Sylvain Couturier, as GM of the Titan, no doubt felt a twinge of fatherly pride to go with the chagrin of seeing his progeny smoke his team last night.
The outburst gives the big, talented Couturier 23 goals and 70 points in 40 games with the Voltigeurs this season. He's on pace to beat his league-leading 96-points last year if he can stay hot and consistent. He's sure to be a top pick in the NHL draft, regardless of the reports you may read that he's falling or the mock drafts you may see that have him dropping out of the top-three. Don't see that happening, even if I'm not bullish on his potential to be an elite player at the NHL level. I think he'll be a good one, but when you tank a season, you hope that you're getting a franchise cornerstone. I'm not sure that Couturier is that kind of player, but that doesn't mean he's going to fall in this draft class, either.
For more on Couturier's big night, you can read Neate Sager's excellent Buzzing the Net blog, where he named Sean the CHL's 1st star for Saturday.
In other 'Q' news, the Saint John Sea Dogs won their 40th game out of 48 total contests this season, pasting the Baie-Comeau Drakkar to a 6-1 score yesterday. Sick. Amazingly enough, they haven't run away with the field yet-- the Quebec Remparts are eight points behind them, so the league standings haven't become a laugher...yet.
Jonathan Huberdeau didn't register any points in the most recent win, but he's been steady as she goes all season, putting up 29 goals and 71 points in 47 contests. He's got the size (though lacks the weight and strength right now) and skill to be a top-six NHL forward someday. His stock continues to jet upward. Zack Phillips may have the quietest 29 goals of any player in the league, and after watching him in the Top Prospects Game, I can understand why there isn't a huge buzz on him. Sure, Sea Dogs supporters and close followers of the 'Q' can attest to his excellence, but he's one of these stealth guys who doesn't jump out at you until there's a play around the net and all of the sudden, he pounces on the puck and its in the back of the net.
Tomas Jurco has been a bit of a disappointment given the sky-high expectations, but his 17 goals, 35 points in 40 games may be more of a reflection of Saint John's ridiculous depth than anything else.
Here's a QMJHL website feature on Jurco, and you're also invited to check out the 5 Minutes in the box feature I did with him at the WJC.
Don't forget about Nathan Beaulieu, too-- the two-way defender is another Sea Dog who didn't register any points against the Drakkar, but has nine goals and 33 points in 47 games, not to mention a +30 rating. He's still working on his overall defensive play, but this guy has solid NHL defender for years written all over him. Really like his toughness as well. At 6-3 and only 191 pounds, he's going to get a lot stronger and heavier. When he does, people are going to be even less inclined to want to fight him.
The outburst gives the big, talented Couturier 23 goals and 70 points in 40 games with the Voltigeurs this season. He's on pace to beat his league-leading 96-points last year if he can stay hot and consistent. He's sure to be a top pick in the NHL draft, regardless of the reports you may read that he's falling or the mock drafts you may see that have him dropping out of the top-three. Don't see that happening, even if I'm not bullish on his potential to be an elite player at the NHL level. I think he'll be a good one, but when you tank a season, you hope that you're getting a franchise cornerstone. I'm not sure that Couturier is that kind of player, but that doesn't mean he's going to fall in this draft class, either.
For more on Couturier's big night, you can read Neate Sager's excellent Buzzing the Net blog, where he named Sean the CHL's 1st star for Saturday.
In other 'Q' news, the Saint John Sea Dogs won their 40th game out of 48 total contests this season, pasting the Baie-Comeau Drakkar to a 6-1 score yesterday. Sick. Amazingly enough, they haven't run away with the field yet-- the Quebec Remparts are eight points behind them, so the league standings haven't become a laugher...yet.
Jonathan Huberdeau didn't register any points in the most recent win, but he's been steady as she goes all season, putting up 29 goals and 71 points in 47 contests. He's got the size (though lacks the weight and strength right now) and skill to be a top-six NHL forward someday. His stock continues to jet upward. Zack Phillips may have the quietest 29 goals of any player in the league, and after watching him in the Top Prospects Game, I can understand why there isn't a huge buzz on him. Sure, Sea Dogs supporters and close followers of the 'Q' can attest to his excellence, but he's one of these stealth guys who doesn't jump out at you until there's a play around the net and all of the sudden, he pounces on the puck and its in the back of the net.
Tomas Jurco has been a bit of a disappointment given the sky-high expectations, but his 17 goals, 35 points in 40 games may be more of a reflection of Saint John's ridiculous depth than anything else.
Here's a QMJHL website feature on Jurco, and you're also invited to check out the 5 Minutes in the box feature I did with him at the WJC.
Don't forget about Nathan Beaulieu, too-- the two-way defender is another Sea Dog who didn't register any points against the Drakkar, but has nine goals and 33 points in 47 games, not to mention a +30 rating. He's still working on his overall defensive play, but this guy has solid NHL defender for years written all over him. Really like his toughness as well. At 6-3 and only 191 pounds, he's going to get a lot stronger and heavier. When he does, people are going to be even less inclined to want to fight him.
Monday, January 17, 2011
TSN/Bob McKenzie's Midseason Draft Rankings Released
TSN's mid-season top-60 was released tonight.
To read them yourself go to the TSN's website- they've got 'em.
Bob is the media master of such things. He has an unparalleled network of NHL scouting sources and an interesting system for creating a draft range for each player that is strictly by the numbers and not subjective. He explains it at the beginning of his post, so no reason to re-hash it here.
Adam Larsson is not a surprise at the top of the list, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at No. 2? Now that is an intriguing twist!
Gabriel Landeskog at 3 is about where he should project to go, but because of the intangibles, there's always the chance that a team could take him in the top-two. Or, if he doesn't come back from the high ankle sprain, he might go a tad lower.
Sean Couturier dropping to 4th...his WJC is primarily responsible for that, but to be honest, he's been playing very well since returning to the QMJHL, so expect him to rebound a bit.
Dougie Hamilton at 5 two spots ahead of Ryan Murphy at 7 jives with what my own NHL sources have been telling me. Those 6-4 guys who can skate always have more appeal than the highly skilled smaller guys, which is what Murphy is. Throw in Hamilton's production (38 pts) and it's a bit of a no-brainer, at least right now. We'll see how the season finishes out.
Ryan Strome at 6th- again, no real surprise. His production and creativity/skill have bolted him up the lists since coming out like gangbusters to start.
Tyler Biggs in the top-10. Central had him fifth. Power forwards like Biggs tend to bring out the NHL teams, so he might end up going higher than most think.
Jonas Brodin at 12th overall is another surprise. All-around Swedish defenseman doesn't have the offensive game of Larsson, but he's one of those guys who's developmental curve is on the up and up-- in time, he could become a lot better than people think based on what he's shown thus far. Interesting selection there...too bad he wasn't in Buffalo.
I'm keeping a close eye on Scott Mayfield at 25th...if the Bruins were to draft a forward with the Toronto pick and still have their own selection later in the round, he makes sense there for them in terms of upside, even if he's not getting much production in the USHL on a cellar-dweller.
David Musil's precipitous drop to 27th is not surprising...but Daniel Catenacci at 30 is. Former top overall OHL priority selection is highly skilled but very small. His 20 goals, 50 points is no doubt keying his surge higher than people thought to start the season, when he wasn't projected to have all that high of a pro ceiling in certain circles.
Seth Ambroz at 50 is falling after being thought of as a consensus top-30 pick to start the year. If he keeps failing to put up points, he could drop lower. Mike Paliotta at 59 is also a surprise, but the lack of points/offensive upside is likely a reason. It's kind of like what happened with Brian Strait five years ago...good player, but just not productive enough.
Overall, though-- this is a solid list. And, you can't argue with McKenzie's methodology.
It's sure to keep people talking through the winter months until the next round of lists and rankings come out.
To read them yourself go to the TSN's website- they've got 'em.
Bob is the media master of such things. He has an unparalleled network of NHL scouting sources and an interesting system for creating a draft range for each player that is strictly by the numbers and not subjective. He explains it at the beginning of his post, so no reason to re-hash it here.
Adam Larsson is not a surprise at the top of the list, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at No. 2? Now that is an intriguing twist!
Gabriel Landeskog at 3 is about where he should project to go, but because of the intangibles, there's always the chance that a team could take him in the top-two. Or, if he doesn't come back from the high ankle sprain, he might go a tad lower.
Sean Couturier dropping to 4th...his WJC is primarily responsible for that, but to be honest, he's been playing very well since returning to the QMJHL, so expect him to rebound a bit.
Dougie Hamilton at 5 two spots ahead of Ryan Murphy at 7 jives with what my own NHL sources have been telling me. Those 6-4 guys who can skate always have more appeal than the highly skilled smaller guys, which is what Murphy is. Throw in Hamilton's production (38 pts) and it's a bit of a no-brainer, at least right now. We'll see how the season finishes out.
Ryan Strome at 6th- again, no real surprise. His production and creativity/skill have bolted him up the lists since coming out like gangbusters to start.
Tyler Biggs in the top-10. Central had him fifth. Power forwards like Biggs tend to bring out the NHL teams, so he might end up going higher than most think.
Jonas Brodin at 12th overall is another surprise. All-around Swedish defenseman doesn't have the offensive game of Larsson, but he's one of those guys who's developmental curve is on the up and up-- in time, he could become a lot better than people think based on what he's shown thus far. Interesting selection there...too bad he wasn't in Buffalo.
I'm keeping a close eye on Scott Mayfield at 25th...if the Bruins were to draft a forward with the Toronto pick and still have their own selection later in the round, he makes sense there for them in terms of upside, even if he's not getting much production in the USHL on a cellar-dweller.
David Musil's precipitous drop to 27th is not surprising...but Daniel Catenacci at 30 is. Former top overall OHL priority selection is highly skilled but very small. His 20 goals, 50 points is no doubt keying his surge higher than people thought to start the season, when he wasn't projected to have all that high of a pro ceiling in certain circles.
Seth Ambroz at 50 is falling after being thought of as a consensus top-30 pick to start the year. If he keeps failing to put up points, he could drop lower. Mike Paliotta at 59 is also a surprise, but the lack of points/offensive upside is likely a reason. It's kind of like what happened with Brian Strait five years ago...good player, but just not productive enough.
Overall, though-- this is a solid list. And, you can't argue with McKenzie's methodology.
It's sure to keep people talking through the winter months until the next round of lists and rankings come out.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
WJC Scouting Reports: Canada
This is the last of the WJC scouting reports for 2011.
It was a fun tourney to cover, but the book is closed and the Russians have their first gold since 2003, when Alex Ovechkin was still 18 months from becoming the top overall selection to Washington.
It was a brutal loss for Canada in the championship game after they took a 3-0 lead, but Bruins fans can certainly commiserate given what happened in Boston back in May.
When Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan Murphy were cut from Team Canada selection camp in December, it deprived scouts a chance to see two of the more elite skill players available in the 2011 NHL Draft, and made Sean Couturier the lone eligible player on Canada's silver medal-winning squad.
Sean Couturier, C 6-3, 195 Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)-- Large frame that will put on a lot more mass when reaching its physical peak (220-230). Lanky and long-limbed player needs to add both upper and lower body strength. High center of gravity makes him susceptible to being knocked off the puck and off-balance until he gains the requisite strength. Average skater; has a slow 1st gear and takes a while to get up to speed. Needs some more fluidity in his strides. Very good hands and stick; can shoot and pass to a high degree. High-end hockey sense, vision and offensive instincts. Threads the needle with pinpoint passes. Big, heavy shot that he can score with from just about anywhere. Smart, competitive. Youngest player on Canada was going to be hard-pressed to see a lot of ice time, but his role seemed to diminish as the WJC games went on, however. Failed to capitalize on a breakaway chance on Jack Campbell in semifinal win against USA.
Overview: Disappointing WJC obviously for Canada, but also for Couturier who didn't do much to establish himself as a clear-cut front-runner for the top overall selection in June. He's got nice size and skill, but isn't truly elite or dynamic in any aspect, though still a very nice prospect. His playing style in the WJC was comparable to Joe Thornton in that he glides around a bit and waits for his chances at times instead of being the bull in the china shop he's capable of. Couturier will go within the top-two picks in all likelihood, but the danger with this kid is that he has the look of a nice complementary player, but isn't going to be a franchise cornerstone type you build around. That may be a bit of bad news for the team that drafts him, especially if that team is a bottom-finisher depending on a bit more bang for the buck from a pick at the top-end of the 1st round.
It was a fun tourney to cover, but the book is closed and the Russians have their first gold since 2003, when Alex Ovechkin was still 18 months from becoming the top overall selection to Washington.
It was a brutal loss for Canada in the championship game after they took a 3-0 lead, but Bruins fans can certainly commiserate given what happened in Boston back in May.
When Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Ryan Murphy were cut from Team Canada selection camp in December, it deprived scouts a chance to see two of the more elite skill players available in the 2011 NHL Draft, and made Sean Couturier the lone eligible player on Canada's silver medal-winning squad.
Sean Couturier, C 6-3, 195 Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)-- Large frame that will put on a lot more mass when reaching its physical peak (220-230). Lanky and long-limbed player needs to add both upper and lower body strength. High center of gravity makes him susceptible to being knocked off the puck and off-balance until he gains the requisite strength. Average skater; has a slow 1st gear and takes a while to get up to speed. Needs some more fluidity in his strides. Very good hands and stick; can shoot and pass to a high degree. High-end hockey sense, vision and offensive instincts. Threads the needle with pinpoint passes. Big, heavy shot that he can score with from just about anywhere. Smart, competitive. Youngest player on Canada was going to be hard-pressed to see a lot of ice time, but his role seemed to diminish as the WJC games went on, however. Failed to capitalize on a breakaway chance on Jack Campbell in semifinal win against USA.
Overview: Disappointing WJC obviously for Canada, but also for Couturier who didn't do much to establish himself as a clear-cut front-runner for the top overall selection in June. He's got nice size and skill, but isn't truly elite or dynamic in any aspect, though still a very nice prospect. His playing style in the WJC was comparable to Joe Thornton in that he glides around a bit and waits for his chances at times instead of being the bull in the china shop he's capable of. Couturier will go within the top-two picks in all likelihood, but the danger with this kid is that he has the look of a nice complementary player, but isn't going to be a franchise cornerstone type you build around. That may be a bit of bad news for the team that drafts him, especially if that team is a bottom-finisher depending on a bit more bang for the buck from a pick at the top-end of the 1st round.
Monday, January 10, 2011
NHL: On the Fly- Nice draft coverage
Brian Duff of NHL On the Fly had #1 North American skater Gabriel Landeskog and Central Scouting director E.J. Maguire on the show tonight, which was nice to see. The NHL is doing a lot more to market the draft these days and they're getting better at it every year.
Landeskog talked about the decision to come over from Sweden, his style of game and thoughts about his hockey idols. Adam Larsson's name was brought up and Landeskog cited him as a close friend. Will we see these guys go 1-2 in St. Paul? Probably not, but it would be a historic first. Every time I talk to Gabriel or see him interviewed, I have to marvel at how much like a Canadian or American he is in terms of his speech and mannerisms. He even has the "you knows" and "obviouslys" down pat. But in all seriousness, you also understand why he's captain given the way he conducts himself. It isn't a skill that will get him drafted a lot higher than he will in June, but every bit helps.
Maguirewas pretty good, too. He expanded on why Landeskog was No. 1 (a last minute decision), talked about Sean Couturier and his presence at WJC and the fact he missed R& D camp with mono. Plus, he weighed in on a Ken Hitchcock story in Toronto at R&D camp about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and how Hitchcock made a Joe Sakic reference to the small but ultra-fast and high-octane Red Deer Rebels offensive centerman.
There was also a behind-the-scenes look at how Central Scouting puts together their lists.
It's been a good day of hockey coverage. Time to close it out for the night and get back it on Tuesday. Euro updates will hit the streets in the afternoon.
Landeskog talked about the decision to come over from Sweden, his style of game and thoughts about his hockey idols. Adam Larsson's name was brought up and Landeskog cited him as a close friend. Will we see these guys go 1-2 in St. Paul? Probably not, but it would be a historic first. Every time I talk to Gabriel or see him interviewed, I have to marvel at how much like a Canadian or American he is in terms of his speech and mannerisms. He even has the "you knows" and "obviouslys" down pat. But in all seriousness, you also understand why he's captain given the way he conducts himself. It isn't a skill that will get him drafted a lot higher than he will in June, but every bit helps.
Maguirewas pretty good, too. He expanded on why Landeskog was No. 1 (a last minute decision), talked about Sean Couturier and his presence at WJC and the fact he missed R& D camp with mono. Plus, he weighed in on a Ken Hitchcock story in Toronto at R&D camp about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and how Hitchcock made a Joe Sakic reference to the small but ultra-fast and high-octane Red Deer Rebels offensive centerman.
There was also a behind-the-scenes look at how Central Scouting puts together their lists.
It's been a good day of hockey coverage. Time to close it out for the night and get back it on Tuesday. Euro updates will hit the streets in the afternoon.
Analysis of Central Scouting's North American rankings: top-10
The NHL's Central Scouting Service has release their midseason rankings, and director E.J. Maguire was just on NHL Live with Don LaGreca and Billy Jaffe. He talked about a wide range of topics including the fact that they do their midseason list so that they can help NHL clubs form their own opinions on players whether they agree with the rankings or not.
NHL.com's Mike Morreale has a good handle on the situation and interviewed Maguire on the rankings. Here's one nugget in his piece that caught my interest:
"I would say at this point, with the number of viewings our scouts have had, as many as eight players could be taken first," McGuire told NHL.com. "The depth goes right through this draft. A cynic or somebody who's characterizing this as a non-Sidney Crosby draft year only needs to know that whoever emerges in April at No. 5 on our list (Central Scouting's final rankings), and in St. Paul as the No. 5 pick, could eventually be a better NHL player than No. 1. That said, this isn't a Crosby draft year."
Do yourself a favor and go read Morreale's coverage on NHL.com here.
Not surprising is Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog being atop the list. He's the 2011 draft's most complete package of size, skills, toughness and character/leadership. Some guys are bigger, some have more offensive upside, but no one...NO ONE...possesses Landeskog's package of all the desireable attributes in a player.
Sean Couturier is second on the list, the lone 2011-eligible to make Canada's silver medal-winning WJC squad. I'll have more on him later, but he's kind of falling down a bit because he's not that great a skater and didn't do a ton to stand out at the WJC. Now granted, his role was limited, but contrast Couturier's performance to that of Taylor Hall's a year ago, and you can see why there are some doubts emerging about Couturier. He's going to be a good player, but when you're picking at the top of the draft, you're looking for more than just "good."
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is third, and the small but explosive Red Deer center is a bit of a conundrum this season. With only 10 goals in 39 games for the Rebels, you're talking about a goal scorer who isn't putting the puck in the net. On pure skill, you obviously jump on this guy in the top-three, but the lack of production is raising questions about his long-term potential and also an indicator that whichever team picks him could have to wait a couple of years before he's physically ready for the NHL grind. I loved this player coming out of the Ivan Hlinka, where he was money and filled the net, including ripping the gold medal-winning shot from the outside against USA goalie Steve Michalek in a 1-0 game. Where has the scoring gone this season in the Dub, though? Talking to several scouts out west, they've all told me that they're left wanting more , so it will be interesting to see how the 'Nuge does down the stretch.
I like Central's call at 4th with Saint John center Jonathan Huberdeau. Although thin as a rail, this kid can really bring it. Very good skater, hands and hockey sense. He was seen as more of a playmaker last season, but this year, he's been finishing off the play as well for the powerhouse Sea Dogs. Scoring the goals is going to get you noticed in a hurry-- just look what it did for Tyler Seguin a year ago, Now, he may not have Seguin's pure talent (or does he?), but Huberdeau is one of those guys who looks to be on the rise in a big way. I thought he'd be one of those "value" picks closer to 10-15, but after this ranking, doesn't look to be the case. Betting that an NHL team will jump on him fast.
U.S. NTDP (Under-18) Tyler Biggs at fifth overall is sure to bring controversy. I like this player based purely on what I've been told about him and have seen on video. His a big, wide-bodied power forward who can control the flow of the game with his physical style and decent skill level. However, he doesn't possess elite hands and he's got a maddening tendency to sleepwalk at times. I'm told he's brutal when cruising along and not making himself a factor, so while Biggs has the physical upside to be a player, he's going to have to learn to raise the intensity bar if he's ever going to maximize his physical gifts.
Swiss forward Sven Bartschi is sixth on the list, and I would attribute that to his productive play in Portland of the WHL this season, because if it were based on his performance at the WJC, he'd be a third-round prospect in my opinion. He was next to invisible during the preliminary round save for the game against Slovakia, and while he clearly has very good wheels and hands, he spent most of his time out on the perimeter. Seems like a nice enough kid, but he played soft. And soft doesn't belong so high on the list.
B2011DW favorite Dougie Hamilton is seventh, and I would have him ahead of both Bartschi and Biggs if it were up to me. 6-4 d-men don't grow on trees, and while he doesn't have a high-end skill level, he's got good feet/mobility and is a heady player. His 34 points in 38 games is pretty solid production for a 17-year-old defender, especially in the OHL, where he plays for the Niagara Ice Dogs.
At eight and nine we have American power forward Brandon Saad (really surprised Biggs is ahead of him to be honest) and Quebec League defender Nathan Beaulieu. Now if you've read this blog, you know that we have plenty of love for Beaulieu, but not at Ryan Murphy's expense (more on that later). Saad is closer to the top-five than the top-10 and has been pretty consistent for Saginaw this season. In fact, if the Bruins can't get Landeskog, don't be surprised to see them opt for Saad if their top choice at defense is not on the board when they pick. Beaulieu is a pretty good two-way defender with size who's been up-and-down this season with his play. On pure projections, he's probably close, but if you want an indication of how he's played overall, then he doesn't belong in the top-10, period.
Finally, Murphy closes it out at 10th overall for North American skaters. This is a better showing than when Central had him eighth on their OHL-exclusive preliminary rankings to start the year, but I'd have him ahead of several players including Beaulieu, Bartschi and Biggs at the very least. Murphy is a game-breaker and even with his small size, has elite skills and can control the tempo of the game with his energetic, lightning-quick style.
Well, that's the top-10. I'm going to take a break and then get back to the top 11-30 and then do the rest of the list/sleepers and goalies later.
I'll take on the European CS list tomorrow.
NHL.com's Mike Morreale has a good handle on the situation and interviewed Maguire on the rankings. Here's one nugget in his piece that caught my interest:
"I would say at this point, with the number of viewings our scouts have had, as many as eight players could be taken first," McGuire told NHL.com. "The depth goes right through this draft. A cynic or somebody who's characterizing this as a non-Sidney Crosby draft year only needs to know that whoever emerges in April at No. 5 on our list (Central Scouting's final rankings), and in St. Paul as the No. 5 pick, could eventually be a better NHL player than No. 1. That said, this isn't a Crosby draft year."
Do yourself a favor and go read Morreale's coverage on NHL.com here.
Not surprising is Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog being atop the list. He's the 2011 draft's most complete package of size, skills, toughness and character/leadership. Some guys are bigger, some have more offensive upside, but no one...NO ONE...possesses Landeskog's package of all the desireable attributes in a player.
Sean Couturier is second on the list, the lone 2011-eligible to make Canada's silver medal-winning WJC squad. I'll have more on him later, but he's kind of falling down a bit because he's not that great a skater and didn't do a ton to stand out at the WJC. Now granted, his role was limited, but contrast Couturier's performance to that of Taylor Hall's a year ago, and you can see why there are some doubts emerging about Couturier. He's going to be a good player, but when you're picking at the top of the draft, you're looking for more than just "good."
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is third, and the small but explosive Red Deer center is a bit of a conundrum this season. With only 10 goals in 39 games for the Rebels, you're talking about a goal scorer who isn't putting the puck in the net. On pure skill, you obviously jump on this guy in the top-three, but the lack of production is raising questions about his long-term potential and also an indicator that whichever team picks him could have to wait a couple of years before he's physically ready for the NHL grind. I loved this player coming out of the Ivan Hlinka, where he was money and filled the net, including ripping the gold medal-winning shot from the outside against USA goalie Steve Michalek in a 1-0 game. Where has the scoring gone this season in the Dub, though? Talking to several scouts out west, they've all told me that they're left wanting more , so it will be interesting to see how the 'Nuge does down the stretch.
I like Central's call at 4th with Saint John center Jonathan Huberdeau. Although thin as a rail, this kid can really bring it. Very good skater, hands and hockey sense. He was seen as more of a playmaker last season, but this year, he's been finishing off the play as well for the powerhouse Sea Dogs. Scoring the goals is going to get you noticed in a hurry-- just look what it did for Tyler Seguin a year ago, Now, he may not have Seguin's pure talent (or does he?), but Huberdeau is one of those guys who looks to be on the rise in a big way. I thought he'd be one of those "value" picks closer to 10-15, but after this ranking, doesn't look to be the case. Betting that an NHL team will jump on him fast.
U.S. NTDP (Under-18) Tyler Biggs at fifth overall is sure to bring controversy. I like this player based purely on what I've been told about him and have seen on video. His a big, wide-bodied power forward who can control the flow of the game with his physical style and decent skill level. However, he doesn't possess elite hands and he's got a maddening tendency to sleepwalk at times. I'm told he's brutal when cruising along and not making himself a factor, so while Biggs has the physical upside to be a player, he's going to have to learn to raise the intensity bar if he's ever going to maximize his physical gifts.
Swiss forward Sven Bartschi is sixth on the list, and I would attribute that to his productive play in Portland of the WHL this season, because if it were based on his performance at the WJC, he'd be a third-round prospect in my opinion. He was next to invisible during the preliminary round save for the game against Slovakia, and while he clearly has very good wheels and hands, he spent most of his time out on the perimeter. Seems like a nice enough kid, but he played soft. And soft doesn't belong so high on the list.
B2011DW favorite Dougie Hamilton is seventh, and I would have him ahead of both Bartschi and Biggs if it were up to me. 6-4 d-men don't grow on trees, and while he doesn't have a high-end skill level, he's got good feet/mobility and is a heady player. His 34 points in 38 games is pretty solid production for a 17-year-old defender, especially in the OHL, where he plays for the Niagara Ice Dogs.
At eight and nine we have American power forward Brandon Saad (really surprised Biggs is ahead of him to be honest) and Quebec League defender Nathan Beaulieu. Now if you've read this blog, you know that we have plenty of love for Beaulieu, but not at Ryan Murphy's expense (more on that later). Saad is closer to the top-five than the top-10 and has been pretty consistent for Saginaw this season. In fact, if the Bruins can't get Landeskog, don't be surprised to see them opt for Saad if their top choice at defense is not on the board when they pick. Beaulieu is a pretty good two-way defender with size who's been up-and-down this season with his play. On pure projections, he's probably close, but if you want an indication of how he's played overall, then he doesn't belong in the top-10, period.
Finally, Murphy closes it out at 10th overall for North American skaters. This is a better showing than when Central had him eighth on their OHL-exclusive preliminary rankings to start the year, but I'd have him ahead of several players including Beaulieu, Bartschi and Biggs at the very least. Murphy is a game-breaker and even with his small size, has elite skills and can control the tempo of the game with his energetic, lightning-quick style.
Well, that's the top-10. I'm going to take a break and then get back to the top 11-30 and then do the rest of the list/sleepers and goalies later.
I'll take on the European CS list tomorrow.
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