The 2011 World Under-18 Championship is in the books, and Team USA achieved a first- winning three consecutive gold medals for the first time in USA Hockey history.
The 2009 squad did it on home soil in North Dakota, winning gold mainly thanks to 17-year-old Jack Campbell's arrival on the international stage as a force to be reckoned with, the precursor to the following season when he would capture championships at the 2010 Under-20 and again the Under-18 tourney in Belarus.
This time, the USA team, not considered by most as exceptional as the force of nature that blew through the field a year ago, got the goaltending from new star John Gibson, and then a host of balanced, opportunistic two-way play by the rest of the team led by forwards J.T. Miller (leading scorer with 13 points in six games), Reid Boucher (top goal-getter with eight), Robbie Russo (captain and strong two-way performance- eight points, +5 rating) and of course, the heroics of Rocco Grimaldi, who may not have shot out the lights on the scoreboard, but made myriad contributions to the championship in other areas.
Still, Team Sweden came to within just 1:29 of capturing that country's first gold medal in Under-18 tournament history (remarkable that the Tre Kronor have never accomplished this feat given Sweden's status as a two-time Olympic champion and global hockey power).
The defense corps, led by Jonas Brodin and captain Oscar Klefbom, performed in outstanding fashion throughout the tourney. Along with Rasmus Bengtsson and Albin Blomkvist, they formed one of the most effective top-four back line units you will see in hockey. The Swedish D didn't make many mistakes, but unfortunately when they did, it resulted in a spectacularly devastating loss at the hands of the Americans in overtime.
Russia captured bronze, and got a ridiculous offensive explosion from forward Nikita Kucherov, scoring 11 goals and 21 points in just 8 games. It was Alexander Ovechkin-like production, and the enigmatic winger certainly succeeded in raising his stock for the 2011 draft. Just how much, remains to be seen, however. More on Kucherov later.
Other big stories for the Russians were the performances of 2012 eligibles Nail Yakupov (6 goals, 13 points) and Mikhail Grigorenko (4 goals, 18 points) in seven games. Yakupov started slowly, but came on strong in the final couple of games of the the preliminary round and in the last two against Sweden and Canada. Grigorenko was consistently excellent throughout, and we could be looking at a possible 1-2 Russian class of Yakupov and Grigorenko or vice versa just as we saw in 2004 with Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.
Of course, if Canadian stud defender Ryan Murray has anything to say about it, he'll crash the top-two party in 2012. He was tremendous as the captain and as a stalwart dual-threat on the back end. Although Ryan Murphy won top defenseman honors with a brilliant 13-point performance to set a Team Canada scoring record (that's right- forwards too- Murphy scored more points than any Canadian player in U18 tourney history- wow!), it took Murphy's four-point day in a losing cause for the bronze medal to secure the honors, otherwise, it just might have been Murray.
Once again, the history of the U18 tourney having positive and negative effects on the upcoming draft class proved true, and scouts are no doubt eagerly anticipating the race to 2012, with so many intriguing story lines emerging in Germany.
Now, let's look at some players who helped and hurt themselves in this tournament in our view. We can't dedicate this space to each and every one, so consider this the cliff's notes version.
Risers
Nikita Kucherov, F Russia- We're going to start calling him "Midas" because everything he touched turned to gold. Unbelievable offensive performance by one of the more skilled prospects in the entire class, but who hurt his standing this season by looking disinterested and acting at times petulant in earlier tournaments. Kucherov saved his best for last, putting on a tour-de-force that no doubt will have some NHL teams who do not fear drafting out of Europe readjusting their previous thinking on him. Before the tourney we would have thought there was no way Kucherov would be a first-round pick, but if you're a club picking in the final few spots of this draft, why wouldn't try to swing for the fences? If he does drop into the second, the wait won't be a long one. Showed enough game-breaking speed, quick hands and an absolutely serial killer instinct when it came to finishing off chances.
Ryan Murphy, D Canada- When you've been one of the most talked-about prospects for the top-10 of the NHL draft all season, is it actually possible to raise your stock? Well, the Aurora, Ontario native and Kitchener Rangers star did it in Germany. The production was record-setting in itself, but it was how Murphy scored the points that had tongues a-wagging. Whether firing up the ice like he had rockets on his skates, or slithering through defenses while showing off several gears and superlative edge control/balance or making 360-degree spin moves and blind passes on the stick tape of teammates, Murphy was as dynamic as they come. Bruins fans who were hoping he would fall to the ninth spot now can only hope that if he is Boston's target, that the team can move up to secure him, because we just don't see him dropping very far out of the top-five (if at all even) after the kind of season, OHL playoffs and now Under-18 performance he just had. In fact, B2011DW wouldn't be at all surprised if the New Jersey Devils grabbed him as high as fourth overall. Sure, it will depend on who drops to them, but for a team who knew exactly what it had with Scott Niedermayer for over a decade, this kid's high-end offensive chops aren't far off.
J.T. Miller, C USA- One of the bigger disappointments this season for the U.S. NTDP because his production never seemed to be commensurate with his excellent physical tools, Miller finally broke through with the kind of dominant, consistent scoring performance scouts have been waiting for. The 6-1 center from Ohio scored four goals (and some big ones at that) and was a consistent passer and playmaker. The top line of Miller, Boucher and Grimaldi gave other teams fits throughout the tourney and Miller was often the one who found himself with the time and space to make things happen with. To his credit, he did. It helped to have a linemate in Boucher who was shooting the lights out in critical situations, but Miller looked and played like a solid first-round pick. Someone who liked his tools but was concerned with the lack of production just might have seen enough to grab him top-20. Even if he slips out of that bracket, we can't imagine he'd miss on the opening 30 picks. Too much talent and upside there.
Jonas Brodin, D Sweden- The controller; we were pretty impressed at how smoothly and effectively Brodin took charge of the Swedish defense corps, turning them into the prettiest transition unit in the entire field. The way Sweden broke out of their end was poetry in motion, and it all started with Brodin who isn't a flashy player (just one assist in four games), but seems to see the ice and think many steps ahead of everyone else like a chess grandmaster. He's got the head and feet to orchestrate the attack, even if he lacks the strength and overpowering shot to be a big point getter. If intelligent puck movers are at a premium, then don't expect Brodin to last very long on June 24th- he's slick and when it comes down to it, a pretty commanding presence. He doesn't get enough credit for what he brings to the table in our view.
Mark Scheifele, C Canada- Young colt lived up to his Barrie namesake with a very good offensive performance. Scored one of the more memorable goals of anyone in the tourney against Finland when he read a bungled pass, split the defense, fought off a hook from behind and still managed to put the puck in the net with a nice backhand deke. 6-3 guys don't typically move the way he does with that ability to separate, so there is a lot of raw material to work with. At about 175, he's nowhere near as strong as he needs to be. However, he more than solidified a first-round draft grade in our view. He's a poor man's Ryan Johansen at this stage we feel- won't go as high, but his progress and potentially high ceiling will see him picked ahead of other higher-profile players who are bigger names and have been in draft discussions longer. Classic guy who came into the U18s with some questions to answer and passed with flying colors. Happens every year.
Joel Armia, F Finland- Took charge up front for Finland and proved himself a solid first-round selection with his offensive performance. His big frame needs work to add mass and strength, but he's got a long stride and the ability to generate speed and separation. He's still a little gangly and not overly strong on his skates, but getting there. A vicious killer between the hashmarks- wants the puck and knows what to do with it when he gets it. One of the best pure goal scorers in the draft and impressed us with his vision and playmaking skills in this tourney as well. Creative and a better puck distributor than we gave him credit for. Not very physical, but not a soft player, either. Uses his trunk and long limbs to create space and bull his way to the net. Doesn't speak English very well yet, but uses two very important words often: "puck" and "score". His effort without the puck is what is holding him back from a top-10 selection in our view. He can be lackadaisical and is inconsistent in his backchecking efforts. If its a maturity thing, he could be a homerun pick, but if he's only motivated offensively, then he's a one-dimensional guy and may never be as good a player as he should be.
Victor Rask, C Sweden- Got his sliding value going in the other direction with a very good preliminary round performance, especially against Canada to earn the top seed in group. Big, offensively-savy centerman who isn't a great skater but gets from point A to B well enough. He'll get more balanced and stronger on his skates, and while he'll never be a speed demon, he goes to the net with some power. Soft hands for passing and can unleash a good, heavy shot. Not much of a showing against the USA in the gold medal game, but we're grading the overall tournament performance and he did some nice things reminiscent of what scouts were expecting from him after his performance in this same tournament a year ago. Will some team take him in the 1st round? Possibly- don't bet against it. However, his season overall is still a disappointment given the expectations he had coming in. Good rebound, but he won't get anywhere near the bounce of a Kucherov, for example.
Reid Boucher, F USA- Gutsy little scorer found the back of the net eight times in the tournament, which wasn't at the top of the charts, but his timing was tremendous. Michigan State recruit is undersized and not all that fast a skater, but he more than makes up with it for his natural anticipation and knack for finding open ice and a wicked shot that he can unleash from anywhere. He did this at the Five Nations in February and raised a few eyebrows, but the encore performance on an even bigger stage should have done enough to see him secure second-round status. Scorers like Boucher don't grow on trees, and while he's not the showman Grimaldi is in terms of being noticeable on every shift, he's highly dangerous and just knows how to be clutch. Also led his team in plus/minus with +9, so he's responsible defensively and kills penalties, too. One of Ron Rolston's go-to guys who delivered.
John Gibson, G USA- What more can we say about this guy that we haven't already? Super size, quickness and technique. Makes things look easy when they aren't. But the best thing about him is his calm and poise. He weathered the storm of a Canada comeback yesterday to secure an overtime win, then hung in with his team down a couple of goals to make every stop the rest of the way in yet another overtime victory to clinch gold. We were looking for him to step out from behind Campbell's international shadow, and the Pittsburgh native did precisely that. Awesome performance from the tournament's top netminder, and he's all but sewn up status as the first goaltender off the board in June.
Robbie Russo, D USA- It's no secret that B2011DW was pretty critical of Russo's performance during earlier viewings of him this season, and we weren't hearing great things about him from sources either. But, he pulled it together in time to have an excellent tournament befitting of some of the hype. He's headed to Notre Dame next season and should make a pretty immediate impact if he plays in the NCAA like he did in Germany. Smart, crisp puck mover all tournament long and worked with Connor Murphy to set up the winning goal against Sweden. Wasn't as strong as the tourney went on as he was in the beginning, but what can we say? He at least looked like the PMD some circles were hyping him as.
Connor Murphy, D USA- This was a make-or-break tourney for Murphy to land in the top-60 and he looks to have made it. Big, talented two-way defender who won't put up a ton of points, but is an effective point man with a big shot. Miami University recruit is staying in his home state to play for the Redhawks, and the only real questions he needs to answer are ones about his durability. Kid can play and looks to have more offensive potential than his dad, Gord, who was a solid NHL stay-at-homer in his day.
Dmitrij Jaskin, F CZE- Power winger helped himself with four goals in five games, showing off his wicked release and powerful shot. Heavy feet, yes, but competes hard and is a physical player with a North American flavor to his game already. Below average skaters always have it in tough to make it in the NHL, which is a skating man's league, but when they are big, strong, intelligent and passionate about the game the way Jaskin is, they usually find a way to make it. If he could get a little faster he has top-six potential for sure.
Fallers
Tyler Biggs, F USA- Tough tournament for a kid who is unfairly becoming a whipping boy, but we also have to call it the way we see it. He hurt his team with way too many penalties. Now in fairness, some of the calls that went against him were the classic- he's bigger (no pun intended) than the other guy and the hits looked worse than they were- type infractions that tend to get whistled more during international play. However, he also took his share of lazy, undisciplined calls and that's what drives us crazy. The roughing call he took against Canada just after Boucher made it 4-1 was particularly galling because it was completely unnecessary and also sparked that team's comeback. Biggs is a powerful skater with a heavy shot, but we didn't see him creating much on his own offensively other than scoring the winning goal against Canada in OT that several onlookers felt goaltender Malcolm Subban should have stopped. Biggs was unfairly rated too high by Central scouting at mid-term and he's the easy target right now because he didn't produce consistently while others on his squad did. Right or wrong, fair or unfair- it is what it is.
Joachim Nermark, F SWE- Ugh. Just a disappointing showing for a guy who was tremendous at the Ivan Hlinka but has been all downhill since. One goal in five games...invisible against the USA. One scout we talked to said, 'We have no use for him." Ouch. He may yet be a top-60 pick because of what he did in Slovakia, but we wouldn't touch him in that range based on what we saw here. Risky pick and we're not even sure of the payoff. Did not help himself at all.
Samu Perhonen, G FIN- Brutal is a polite way to put this promising netminder's performance. He was shaky from jump street against Canada and never recovered, stopping a putrid 87.5% of his shots and going 2-2 in the process. We thought this cat would challenge Gibson for top netminder honors at the 2011 draft, and now we don't even think Perhonen will be the first European picked (Magnus Hellberg). He's still a top-two or three-round pick, but after seeing him and Gibson in the same competition, they seem light years apart. Perhonen's lack of poise was what was particularly troublesome- just couldn't seem to make the big save when his team needed it. However, Perhonen still has the size and athletic ability/upside to be a high-end stopper in the NHL one day. If he slides, that could be great news for the team that grabs him.
Reece Scarlett, D CAN- Has showed some impressive traits and potential in flashes, but this was a tough tourney for the WHL defender. He's not where he needs to be in terms of his physical development and strength. He also made some bad pinches and decisions that proved costly. Seemed hesitant at times and was caught in no man's land. Real smooth stride and mobility, but in this game, that split second delayed reaction will burn you even if you skate well. He wasn't quite ready for primetime and opponents exploited him.
Daniel Catenacci, F CAN- Just two assists for this speedy, skilled and even dynamic forward were a major disappointment. Capable of so much more, yet went invisible for long stretches. On top of that, took a lot of bad penalties and never could seem to get out of his own way. All of this from a guy some on the internet are talking about as a potential first-rounder in June? We don't think so. Soo Greyhounds teammate Nick Cousins skated circles around him (4-4-8) and was one of the guys who emerged as a big-time clutch performer.
Miikka Salomaki, F FIN- We weren't very impressed with this guy's NHL upside, but kept hearing that teams were keeping an eye out for him. Well, after watching him at the WJC over the winter and on video at the U18s, we can't see him being a top-three round pick. He might get there, but that could be a mistake. Doesn't do anything particularly well, and just seems like a solid Euro leaguer and nothing more.
B2011DW will be back with a look at some sleepers who may have emerged from the shadows a bit, and even if some were more known, appear to have the inside track on hearing their names called in Minnesota.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Rasmus Bengtsson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rasmus Bengtsson. Show all posts
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Friday, April 22, 2011
World Under-18 Semifinals Saturday: USA-Canada, Sweden-Russia
The big-four hockey powers are all in the World Under-18 Championship dance!
USA is attempting to win three U18 gold medals for the first time in history, but it won't be easy. Though Germany pushed Canada to the brink, Soo Greyhounds forward Nick Cousins continued his excellent play in the tourney with a late power play goal with less than five minutes left to propel Canada into the final-four, 4-3.
Russia smoked Finland by a 5-2 score, with defenseman Andrey Pedan getting a pair of assists, while forward Nikita Kucherov continued his tourney-leading points assault with a goal and helper. Kucherov is tremendously talented, but has been graded down for diving and effort concerns this season. We've not seen much of that in the tourney, however. He's been the real straw stirring the drink for the Russians. Pedan is more of a project, a big kid at about 6-5 who can skate and shoot, but played a very conservative game for Guelph of the OHL this season. He's been more active offensively on the bigger ice surfaces of the U18s and is the kind of raw prospect with impressive physical tools who could be worth a look in the third round.
Sweden will take on the Russians, and you have to like the Swedish defensive group. Led by Jonas Brodin, they also boast some studs in Oscar Klefbom and Rasmus Bengtsson and small but skilled Karl Johansson. It will be Russia's high octane offense led by Kucherov and also featuring Nail Yakupov and Maxim Shalunov against Sweden's mobile, heady and dangerous blue line corps. Can't wait!
The Americans have been off since Tuesday when they beat Germany to go 4-0-0-0 in the round robin. This is a tough challenge for them, because like the WJC U20 team who cruised, they have yet to go up against a squad in the tourney with the kind of size and power along with some smaller speed and skill players like Cousins, Daniel Catenacci and high-flying defenseman Ryan Murphy.
USA will need a terrific game from John Gibson to advance to the gold medal game, but they have no shortage of gamers who have managed to alternately grab the ring and be heroes when the team has needed it. One player who has yet to make much of an impact is winger Tyler Biggs. Getting some offense going against Canada would be a good spot for him to start.
USA is attempting to win three U18 gold medals for the first time in history, but it won't be easy. Though Germany pushed Canada to the brink, Soo Greyhounds forward Nick Cousins continued his excellent play in the tourney with a late power play goal with less than five minutes left to propel Canada into the final-four, 4-3.
Russia smoked Finland by a 5-2 score, with defenseman Andrey Pedan getting a pair of assists, while forward Nikita Kucherov continued his tourney-leading points assault with a goal and helper. Kucherov is tremendously talented, but has been graded down for diving and effort concerns this season. We've not seen much of that in the tourney, however. He's been the real straw stirring the drink for the Russians. Pedan is more of a project, a big kid at about 6-5 who can skate and shoot, but played a very conservative game for Guelph of the OHL this season. He's been more active offensively on the bigger ice surfaces of the U18s and is the kind of raw prospect with impressive physical tools who could be worth a look in the third round.
Sweden will take on the Russians, and you have to like the Swedish defensive group. Led by Jonas Brodin, they also boast some studs in Oscar Klefbom and Rasmus Bengtsson and small but skilled Karl Johansson. It will be Russia's high octane offense led by Kucherov and also featuring Nail Yakupov and Maxim Shalunov against Sweden's mobile, heady and dangerous blue line corps. Can't wait!
The Americans have been off since Tuesday when they beat Germany to go 4-0-0-0 in the round robin. This is a tough challenge for them, because like the WJC U20 team who cruised, they have yet to go up against a squad in the tourney with the kind of size and power along with some smaller speed and skill players like Cousins, Daniel Catenacci and high-flying defenseman Ryan Murphy.
USA will need a terrific game from John Gibson to advance to the gold medal game, but they have no shortage of gamers who have managed to alternately grab the ring and be heroes when the team has needed it. One player who has yet to make much of an impact is winger Tyler Biggs. Getting some offense going against Canada would be a good spot for him to start.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
World Under-18 Championship Day 6: Preliminary round notes
The World Under-18 Championship preliminary round is in the books. We'll see quarterfinal games tomorrow: Russia and Finland go at it, and Canada and Germany, with USA and Sweden earning byes to the semifinal games as the Group A and B winners.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Czech Republic is in relegation, which is a shame because it speaks to the fall off in talent for that country and that of Slovakia. Of course, hurting both is the fact that some of the best players that could have helped their clubs were still competing in the CHL playoffs in North America and weren't available.
With all due respect to host club Germany, they got blown out by the USA yesterday and figure to suffer a similar fate against Canada. This means a likely USA-Canada tilt will be a Clash of the Titans. Back in the WJC (U20) the USA blew it against Canada in the semifinal round after cruising in preliminaries. This squad will need a top game from John Gibson and does have a little more size and balance than the USA U20 club did. I really did think it was a tactical mistake on USA Hockey's part not to bring a little more size on the wings to Buffalo with them.
As for Russia-Sweden, that should be a hard-fought contest as well, but Sweden looks to be set up for another run to the gold medal game. They've lost each of the championship contests in the past two years to USA.
Here are some notes and observations on 2011 eligible players for your digestion.
Sweden
Mika Zibanejad, F- Continues to elevate his stock at this tournament as he has done for most of the season. Had an explosive game versus Norway and leads Team Sweden in scoring with four goals and seven points in four contests. Zibanejad has been a B2011DW favorite because he can skate and has good hands, but brings size and a high energy level with him to the ice. This is a kid who loves to play and never stops moving his feet. He goes hard to the net, does the honest work in the corners and loves to use the body. He's nowhere near as as strong as he will be, so it's encouraging to see how effective he is on the physical side of things already. The only real concerns with the Persian Prince (his father is Iranian) is whether his abilities will translate into a high-end scorer at the NHL level. Most think he has solid top-six forward potential, but that's what will see him earn a draft grade around or even inside the top-10. B2011DW will have much more on Zibanejad when the tournament wraps and we get to see how he competes in the medal round.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D- Started the year slowly, but really came on in the second half after he got his bearings in the Allsvenskan. He's a strong skater with good four-way mobility and the kind of agility that allows him to smoothly transition/open up the hips for fluid chances of direction. He also has a pretty big point shot- just needs to refine a few things on his release and accuracy. He's been making smart decisions with the puck and hitting on his passes. He's a strong puck mover who plays an intelligent game and has no real glaring weaknesses in any aspect of what he brings to the mix. We're hearing that a lot of teams are hoping to steal Bengtsson later on in the draft, but after his solid four-assist performance and effective defensive play, that's probably not happening.
Jonas Brodin, D- Nothing that Brodin does on the surface jumps out at you, although he is a mobile skater who plays a smooth game in transition. However, when you watch this kid closely, you realize how mature he is in terms of his development and understanding of situations on the ice. His reads are outstanding, and he makes split-second decisions that may not garner a lot of attention, but keep the play moving. His stats are never anything to write home about, but hockey isn't just about the stats. The ones who can think the game at a higher level and don't make mental mistakes are always prized because in the right system with strong talent around the individual, the production will come. Brodin will likely be a coveted option for the team that snatches him. First round or bust. If he somehow slips to the second, the team that lands him will have excellent value.
Victor Rask, F- He is looking like the guy who excited scouts a year ago at the U18s again. He struggled in the Allsvenskan this season and even got demoted to his club's junior squad for a spell, but the big and skilled centerman is producing again. He had a strong game against Canada, which will certainly earn him some high marks from scouts who needed him to not only show off his impressive offensive talents, but a heartbeat in the process. He did that and more. We're not wild about his skating; his acceleration is not what it should be, but if he can pick up a step, the rest of his game translates into a player who could play a scoring role for his NHL club some day. It's good to see him get his mojo back a bit, but the real expectations will be met or exceeded in the coming days when the games mean a great deal more.
Oscar Klefbom, D- Sweden's top puck rusher is Brodin's teammate in Farjestad and is a much flashier prospect because he zooms up the ice like he's been shot from a cannon, fires the puck hard and plays a more aggressive, dynamic style. He may not be Brodin's equal defensively or even in how he processes and thinks the game, but we love the way he activates at the right time and will jump into the play. When he's on his game, he will attack defenses with speed and can gain the zone on his own. He instinctively sees the shooting lanes opening up and takes advantage- he's not afraid to get the puck on net and likes to hammer it at the goalie as much as he can. Klefbom does have the vision and hands to hit his teammates with passes. If teams are looking for a defender who loves to rush the puck over your more classic puck mover, than Klefbom is their guy.
Jeremy Boyce-Rotevall, F- Rotevall has arguably been Sweden's most opportunistic scorer, with three goals in four games, but hitting on an impressive 27.7 shooting percentage. He's been deceptive, a lot like Reid Boucher in that he doesn't jump out at you every time he's on the ice, but will then cruise into the prime scoring areas and bury one. He doesn't have the flash and dash of Zibanejad, but we think this forward is underrated and could in time develop as a nice NHL option as a player who isn't likely to be a high pick but has the talent and upside to make an impact eventually.
Czech Republic
Dmitri Jaskin, F- Aside from the skating, this kid has everything you want in a power forward. He found the back of the net three times in the tourney and can really rip it, with a rapid release, heavy shot and good accuracy. He bulls his way to the dirty areas of the ice and has a nose for the net. We really respect his intensity and effort levels, even though he doesn't have the smooth skating stride and agility/speed that are ideal in a top-15 candidate. However, he protects the puck well and makes up for his lack of foot speed with excellent anticipation and a passion for the game. First rounder? Yes. All that remains is to discover which team is confident enough that they can fix some of the flaws in his skating to help him become the kind of player he has some real potential to be in the NHL one day.
David Musil, D- After watching him a bit in this tourney, we can see why Musil's stock has fallen off from where it was coming into 2010-11. He does a lot of nice things, but isn't the kind of dominant force on the back line that justifies taking him in the top-10 or even top-15. The blood lines are excellent, but at the end of the day, he's skating is good, not great. His shot is OK and while he can be a physical player willing to take the body, he tends to be inconsistent in his approach. In our view, he's spent a little too much time trying to play the puck instead of using his natural size and strength to blow guys off it. Musil is another guy who a team will take early enough (20-30?) because they are convinced that his flaws are minor and can be tweaked with relative ease. However, it's disappointing that a player with as much potential as he showed last season just kind of went through the motions and didn't take that expected next step.
Matej Matovsky, G- Given how mediocre Matovsky was in the couple of games we watched, it's kind of hard to figure out why he got all four starts while Jaroslav Pavelka got none. Matovsky is a modern prototype with the size and athletic ability to get the job done, but he was pretty inconsistent, going 2-2 with just an .890 save percentage and in his case, the stats really do tell the story. After the promise he showed with Brampton this season, more was expected.
Finland
Joel Armia, F- You can see why he's so highly regarded given his size and skill level. His production has been terrific in the tourney as well, with two goals and nine points in four games. We haven't been huge fans of Armia here on this blog, simply because we'd like to see more of an effort from him when he doesn't have the puck.That said, when he's got it going in the offensive zone, his hands, vision and creativity are first-rate and you can see how much he wants the puck on his stick. When he's in close, he's very difficult to contain and will only become more of a threat as he fills out his lanky frame and gets stronger.
Miikka Salomaki, F- We're not really seeing much potential with this player, to be honest. We felt the same way in Buffalo, too. He skates well enough, and looks like a solid defensive player at this level, but his overall skill level just doesn't warrant much in the way of a high draft pick or any excitement in our view. We just have a hard time figuring out what his role and payoff would be in the NHL. We have no doubt he can be an effective SM-Liiga player, but Salomaki just doesn't do it for us as a viable NHL prospect.
Samu Perhonen, G- Disappointing is putting it mildly. Really struggled against Canada- looking shaky all game long and then going to pieces in the final 10 minutes. Came back to post a 1-1 record after Richard Ullberg got lit up by Sweden, but it wasn't a very good tournament for the top netminder on Central's European list. This guy has the size and tools to be a very good stopper, but where John Gibson has flourished thus far, Perhonen took a couple of steps back. It isn't like he plays on a poor team, either. The potential's there, but Perhonen has a lot of developing to do, and we wouldn't be surprised to see Swedish overager Magnus Hellberg go off the board first in June.
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Central European Skaters rankings: The Persian Prince rises
THe NHL's Central Scouting Service released its final rankings on Monday, and this blog took a close look at the North American prospects. Now, it is time to turn the attention to the list of European players available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
It looks like another big year for Sweden, with six of Central's top-10 Euros coming out of that Scandinavian hockey factory.
Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson kept his spot atop the rankings and is still a candidate to go first overall in the draft, as the Edmonton Oilers hold the No. 1 selection. The 6-3, 200-pounder is a powerful skater who is smooth with his stride and footwork. He has very good hands and vision for advancing the puck and hitting teammates with speed coming out of their zone. He plays a smart positional game and has a big shot. He can run the power play effectively as both a distributor and triggerman.
Larsson made it to the Swedish Elite League at age 16, just the third defenseman to do so behind Calle Johansson and Victor Hedman. As such, Larsson's game has been nitpicked a lot, much like Sean Couturier's has, taking a little of the bloom off the rose.
At the same time, this kid is so solid and mature, it's hard to imagine he'll fall much if at all in St. Paul. The challenge he faces with Edmonton is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wide fan and media favorite. A lot of folks are going to want the Oilers to take the slight but supremely skilled center. At the same time, Larsson is a safer pick, even if he doesn't have RNH's dynamic, game-breaking element.
Countryman Mika Zibanejad, whom we like to call the "Persian Prince of Sweden" because of his Iranian (and Finnish on his mother's side) parentage, is second on Central's list and deserves to be there. We could argue that no player is generating more buzz and interest right now than Zibanejad is. He broke into Djurgarden's SEL club after beginning the year on the J20 squad and played extremely well against the men.
Zibanejad (aka "Z-Bad" by THN's Ryan Kennedy) plays with some real fire and passion. He's a good skater with an extra gear, has a quick stick and a lethal shot. With his 6-2, 191-pound frame, he plays a physical style and is going to get bigger and stronger as he continues to mature. We will have a more detailed analysis of Zibanejad soon, as he will be profiled in this blog's next "case for" post, but with 5 goals and 9 points in 26 games, he showed enough to be a potential top-10 pick in June.
Another Swede rounds out the top-three, with defenseman Jonas Brodin of Färjestad locking it down with his very solid all-around game and intelligence. Brodin didn't score a goal in 42 games this season, but his game is more than his stats indicate. He's highly mobile, with the poise and vision to make plays all over the ice. He's not an aggressive, attacking-type player but is going to make a team defense dangerous because he has the smarts and wheels to jump into the play when he needs to, but is also going to make all the plays defensively. He's extremely light and needing to add strength and mass to his 6-1 frame, but along with Zibanejad and fellow Färjestad defender Oscar Klefbom, Brodin will be watched closely at the Under-18 Championship tourney this week and next.
Big Finnish forward Joel Armia is next on Central's list at four. Many would argue he should be ahead of Brodin and even Zibanejad, but we have no problem with where he is. At 6-3, 191 he has terrific size for a winger and is a fluid skater who can handle the puck well and beat defenders with an array of impressive 1-on-1 moves. He's got a real big shot and release, but can also handle the puck well in traffic and is effective with the deke. Where he loses his luster with us a bit is in his overall defensive game (needs major work) and tendency to fade and disappear for stretches. He got off to a very hot start and still finished with a respectable 18 goals in 48 games- it's just that we feel Armia is one of the more overrated prospects in this draft because he still gets a ton of credit for what he did early on, but his supporters don't want to talk about how he seemed to hit the wall at mid-season. Make no mistake- he's a legitimate draft talent and could end up being a stud NHLer in time. But right now, he's pretty one-dimensional and we don't see what all the top-10 fuss is about. Now, if he rips it up at the U18s, that will be huge for him, but inside the top-10, we wouldn't be comfortable making the recommendation to take Armia there. After 10, it's on just about anywhere. High upside with this one, but there's a bust factor, too. His body language and playing style reminds us a lot of Mikko Lehtonen, whom the Bruins recently traded to the Wild after he didn't work out in Providence.
Czech power forward Dmitri Jaskin checks in at five, and he's worthy of that ranking based on what we hear. A knee injury kept him out of the World Jrs. in Buffalo and he missed February's Five Nations tourney as well, but he's in Germany with a chance to make a run for a top-20 or top-15 selection in June. His skating is a drawback, but everything else about the kid- size (6-1, 200), hands, shot, passion- is all there. He's the best prospect coming out of the Czech Republic this season and bears watching. He'd be ranked much higher if not for his plodding skating and lack of agility, but he goes hard to the net and makes things happen.
Oscar Klefbom is an intriguing defender rising up the various draft boards because of his size and offensive upside. Although not the all-around defender his teammate Brodin is, Klefbom nevertheless is more of a visible presence on the ice and does more to key the attack. In fact, we would not at all be surprised if Klefbom ends up getting picked ahead of Brodin in the NHL draft. The U18 will obviously make or break that kind of scenario happening. But at 6-4, 200 pounds, this excellent skater and skilled player loves to join the rush and has strong offensive instincts. One player to watch for the 2011 draft as a darkhorse to be an off-the-board pick.
Miikka Sälomaki and Joachim Nermark are seventh and eighth on the list. We liked Sälomaki at the WJC- he was involved and played with a lot of energy for Team Finland. We've wondered about his offensive upside at the NHL level, but this guy just keeps hanging around and playing well in international tournaments. He may not have high-end skills, but compensates with his anticipation and hustle. He's only average-sized and needs to get a lot stronger, but played well for Kärpät in the SM-Liiga and will be a solid, if unspectacular prospect for the team that drafts him.
Nermark has been a disappointment after looking so good at the Ivan Hlinka in August. He could drop some at the draft as a result of his struggles in finding the back of the net and putting up the points this season playing on Linköping's J20 team for much of the season (he played 12 SEL games- 1 assist). That said, he's one of those players with the raw talent and scoring intangibles to get back on track and evolve into a beast, so one team just might take the plunge earlier than expected. He's a good skater with a 6-1 frame and room to grow. His soft hands and knack for threading the needle is impressive as his quick release and ability to score, but he didn't finish enough in his draft season with 8 goals, 26 points on the junior squad. Nermark is another one who could get a big boost in Germany if he can get back to his Slovakia-like dominance.
Markus Granlund, brother of Wild prospect and top-10 selection last June Mikael Granlund, is on the list at 9th overall. We're not sure about this one, to be honest. Granlund is a solid player, but he's not his older brother. He's also undersized and is a better skater than Mikael, but still lacks that top-end speed scouts want to see in smaller guys. He doesn't have his older brother's pure offensive hockey sense and vision however. He was productive on HIFK's junior team with 20 goals and 52 points in 40 games, and he has been very good in 15 international games this season, posting 11-10-21 totals. Could be flying under the radar a bit, but we always wonder about expectations about brothers when one is so clearly a top prospect in Mikael's case. Markus could be a solid complimentary player, but based on what we're hearing, he doesn't have the star potential.
Rounding out the top-10 is defenseman Rasmus Bengtsson, who spent the season in the Allsvenskan with Rögle. At 6-2, 196, he's still filling out. He's a good skater with solid all-around skills and some two-way potential. He can move the puck effectively and has a cannon shot. He just needs to keep working on his defensive awareness and decision-making, but held his own against men in the Swedish second division.
Swiss forward Gregory Hoffman just missed the top-10, but he should probably be in there. There's a lot to like about the skilled, intelligent pivot who just seems to be able to make the big play when his team needs it. He's up eight spots to 11 from 19 at mid-season, but we still like Hofmann a lot and feel he's one of the more underrated Euros in the draft.
We'll be back later with more of a look at the European players on the list outside the top-11.
It looks like another big year for Sweden, with six of Central's top-10 Euros coming out of that Scandinavian hockey factory.
Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson kept his spot atop the rankings and is still a candidate to go first overall in the draft, as the Edmonton Oilers hold the No. 1 selection. The 6-3, 200-pounder is a powerful skater who is smooth with his stride and footwork. He has very good hands and vision for advancing the puck and hitting teammates with speed coming out of their zone. He plays a smart positional game and has a big shot. He can run the power play effectively as both a distributor and triggerman.
Larsson made it to the Swedish Elite League at age 16, just the third defenseman to do so behind Calle Johansson and Victor Hedman. As such, Larsson's game has been nitpicked a lot, much like Sean Couturier's has, taking a little of the bloom off the rose.
At the same time, this kid is so solid and mature, it's hard to imagine he'll fall much if at all in St. Paul. The challenge he faces with Edmonton is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wide fan and media favorite. A lot of folks are going to want the Oilers to take the slight but supremely skilled center. At the same time, Larsson is a safer pick, even if he doesn't have RNH's dynamic, game-breaking element.
Countryman Mika Zibanejad, whom we like to call the "Persian Prince of Sweden" because of his Iranian (and Finnish on his mother's side) parentage, is second on Central's list and deserves to be there. We could argue that no player is generating more buzz and interest right now than Zibanejad is. He broke into Djurgarden's SEL club after beginning the year on the J20 squad and played extremely well against the men.
Zibanejad (aka "Z-Bad" by THN's Ryan Kennedy) plays with some real fire and passion. He's a good skater with an extra gear, has a quick stick and a lethal shot. With his 6-2, 191-pound frame, he plays a physical style and is going to get bigger and stronger as he continues to mature. We will have a more detailed analysis of Zibanejad soon, as he will be profiled in this blog's next "case for" post, but with 5 goals and 9 points in 26 games, he showed enough to be a potential top-10 pick in June.
Another Swede rounds out the top-three, with defenseman Jonas Brodin of Färjestad locking it down with his very solid all-around game and intelligence. Brodin didn't score a goal in 42 games this season, but his game is more than his stats indicate. He's highly mobile, with the poise and vision to make plays all over the ice. He's not an aggressive, attacking-type player but is going to make a team defense dangerous because he has the smarts and wheels to jump into the play when he needs to, but is also going to make all the plays defensively. He's extremely light and needing to add strength and mass to his 6-1 frame, but along with Zibanejad and fellow Färjestad defender Oscar Klefbom, Brodin will be watched closely at the Under-18 Championship tourney this week and next.
Big Finnish forward Joel Armia is next on Central's list at four. Many would argue he should be ahead of Brodin and even Zibanejad, but we have no problem with where he is. At 6-3, 191 he has terrific size for a winger and is a fluid skater who can handle the puck well and beat defenders with an array of impressive 1-on-1 moves. He's got a real big shot and release, but can also handle the puck well in traffic and is effective with the deke. Where he loses his luster with us a bit is in his overall defensive game (needs major work) and tendency to fade and disappear for stretches. He got off to a very hot start and still finished with a respectable 18 goals in 48 games- it's just that we feel Armia is one of the more overrated prospects in this draft because he still gets a ton of credit for what he did early on, but his supporters don't want to talk about how he seemed to hit the wall at mid-season. Make no mistake- he's a legitimate draft talent and could end up being a stud NHLer in time. But right now, he's pretty one-dimensional and we don't see what all the top-10 fuss is about. Now, if he rips it up at the U18s, that will be huge for him, but inside the top-10, we wouldn't be comfortable making the recommendation to take Armia there. After 10, it's on just about anywhere. High upside with this one, but there's a bust factor, too. His body language and playing style reminds us a lot of Mikko Lehtonen, whom the Bruins recently traded to the Wild after he didn't work out in Providence.
Czech power forward Dmitri Jaskin checks in at five, and he's worthy of that ranking based on what we hear. A knee injury kept him out of the World Jrs. in Buffalo and he missed February's Five Nations tourney as well, but he's in Germany with a chance to make a run for a top-20 or top-15 selection in June. His skating is a drawback, but everything else about the kid- size (6-1, 200), hands, shot, passion- is all there. He's the best prospect coming out of the Czech Republic this season and bears watching. He'd be ranked much higher if not for his plodding skating and lack of agility, but he goes hard to the net and makes things happen.
Oscar Klefbom is an intriguing defender rising up the various draft boards because of his size and offensive upside. Although not the all-around defender his teammate Brodin is, Klefbom nevertheless is more of a visible presence on the ice and does more to key the attack. In fact, we would not at all be surprised if Klefbom ends up getting picked ahead of Brodin in the NHL draft. The U18 will obviously make or break that kind of scenario happening. But at 6-4, 200 pounds, this excellent skater and skilled player loves to join the rush and has strong offensive instincts. One player to watch for the 2011 draft as a darkhorse to be an off-the-board pick.
Miikka Sälomaki and Joachim Nermark are seventh and eighth on the list. We liked Sälomaki at the WJC- he was involved and played with a lot of energy for Team Finland. We've wondered about his offensive upside at the NHL level, but this guy just keeps hanging around and playing well in international tournaments. He may not have high-end skills, but compensates with his anticipation and hustle. He's only average-sized and needs to get a lot stronger, but played well for Kärpät in the SM-Liiga and will be a solid, if unspectacular prospect for the team that drafts him.
Nermark has been a disappointment after looking so good at the Ivan Hlinka in August. He could drop some at the draft as a result of his struggles in finding the back of the net and putting up the points this season playing on Linköping's J20 team for much of the season (he played 12 SEL games- 1 assist). That said, he's one of those players with the raw talent and scoring intangibles to get back on track and evolve into a beast, so one team just might take the plunge earlier than expected. He's a good skater with a 6-1 frame and room to grow. His soft hands and knack for threading the needle is impressive as his quick release and ability to score, but he didn't finish enough in his draft season with 8 goals, 26 points on the junior squad. Nermark is another one who could get a big boost in Germany if he can get back to his Slovakia-like dominance.
Markus Granlund, brother of Wild prospect and top-10 selection last June Mikael Granlund, is on the list at 9th overall. We're not sure about this one, to be honest. Granlund is a solid player, but he's not his older brother. He's also undersized and is a better skater than Mikael, but still lacks that top-end speed scouts want to see in smaller guys. He doesn't have his older brother's pure offensive hockey sense and vision however. He was productive on HIFK's junior team with 20 goals and 52 points in 40 games, and he has been very good in 15 international games this season, posting 11-10-21 totals. Could be flying under the radar a bit, but we always wonder about expectations about brothers when one is so clearly a top prospect in Mikael's case. Markus could be a solid complimentary player, but based on what we're hearing, he doesn't have the star potential.
Rounding out the top-10 is defenseman Rasmus Bengtsson, who spent the season in the Allsvenskan with Rögle. At 6-2, 196, he's still filling out. He's a good skater with solid all-around skills and some two-way potential. He can move the puck effectively and has a cannon shot. He just needs to keep working on his defensive awareness and decision-making, but held his own against men in the Swedish second division.
Swiss forward Gregory Hoffman just missed the top-10, but he should probably be in there. There's a lot to like about the skilled, intelligent pivot who just seems to be able to make the big play when his team needs it. He's up eight spots to 11 from 19 at mid-season, but we still like Hofmann a lot and feel he's one of the more underrated Euros in the draft.
We'll be back later with more of a look at the European players on the list outside the top-11.
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Risers and fallers in 2011 draft
Time to look at some risers and fallers for the 2011 draft.
Up next will be a post with some sleeper picks for the class, and with that, should bring everyone up to speed on many of the top options for June. We will come back in May with a playoff review when the league championships are all in the books.
Risers
Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)- Hit a huge growth spurt and now stands at about 6-4 after being drafted by the Greyhounds at a little over 6-feet. Played in the OJHL before jumping to the OHL and showed a lot of promise as a mobile, agile two-way defenseman who came out of left field this season laboring for a non-playoff squad. He didn't suffer any ill-effects of the surge in height, and is a powerful skater with a long, fluid stride that scouts really like. When he adds strength and mass to his skinny frame, he'll be even more of a defensive horse than he is already. As one would imagine, he's got a big gun from the point, and just think how much more lethal it will be when he develops more oomph behind it. Very raw, but with one of the most intriguing projectable of any player in the OHL, this guy is going to be the subject of a lot of internet draft chatter between now and June 24-25.
Here's a nice feature on Sproul from Brock Otten's OHL Prospects blog
Seth Griffith, C/RW London (OHL)- Smallish but skilled forward came on strong for the Knights after a large chunk of veterans were traded away. Showed some chemistry with B's prospect Jared Knight and fellow 2011 draft prospect Vladislav Namestnikov. Quick and agile; handles the puck well and has the look of a dangerous scorer in the OHL over the next couple of years. His lacrosse background serves him well in hockey. A player to watch; was a sleeper but finished season with nearly point-per-game for London (22-40-62 in 68 games as a rookie), so he's on a lot of NHL radars now.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (SWE-2)- Youngster has gained a lot of confidence playing in Sweden's Allsvenskan division against men: 45 games, 2-7-9. He's a good skater who plays a solid two-way game and has the size (6-2, 196) to be an effective NHL player eventually. Has a cannon of a shot, but could stand to improve quickness of his release and accuracy. Overall, he's an interesting developmental project as a player who needs to be a little more physical and assertive in his own end, but appears to have the tools to be an NHL prospect to watch.
Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- A 1991 birthdate and late-bloomer who was passed over in 2009 and 2010, NHL teams won't make that mistake again in 2011. Huge at 6-5, 185 pounds and cat-quick between the pipes. Performed brilliantly for Almtuna in the Allsvenskan this season, posting a 2.04 GAA and .936 save percentage in 31 games. He was then loaned to IFK Kumla in the Division 1 league and posted a 2.01 GAA and .938 mark. With his superb athleticism, upside and performance, his developmental curve is straight up, not to mention as an older, more mature player, he's ready to come to the AHL next season and start right away.
Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)- Big Russian defenseman (6-4, 195) came into the OHL this year with a lot of hype after an outstanding Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Russia and only managed to score two goals and 12 points in 51 games, with both tallies coming at the very end of the season. Interestingly enough, he's already posted five points in just three playoff games and his stock is on the rebound. NHL teams liked his size and mobility/agility as an effective shutdown 'D', but he had shown very little offensive element to his performance to justify a high pick. Now, with Pedan starting to bring the offense at crunch time, he's elevating his profile at just the right time.
Zach Franko, LW Kelowna (WHL)- A smaller guy at 5-11, 160, but shifty, fast and a very good puckhandler. Franko, like teammate Shane McColgan, got off to a slow start offensively, but really came on over the second half for the Rockets and will no doubt be on a lot of teams' boards come June. He finished the year with 22 goals and 53 points in 72 games, but has fine hockey sense and vision to go with his wheels and quick stick. He's got to get much stronger, but he could explode offensively in the WHL over the next 1-2 years.
Mitch Elliot, LW Seattle (WHL)- Behemoth winger at 6-5, 215 pounds has legitimate toughness but a modicum of skill as well. He hasn't been very productive with the non-playoff Thunderbirds over the past couple of season, scoring just 6 goals and 17 points in 128 games to go with 157 penalty minutes. Elliot's upside is limited, but he skates pretty well for such a big guy and NHL teams do love their tough wingers.
Fallers
Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL)- This skilled pivot with a high hockey IQ came into the year as a first-round projection, but got off to a slow start with Kingston and never recovered. He was on the gold medal team at the Ivan Hlinka tourney, and was eventually traded to Peterborough for Ryan Spooner. He finished the season with 26 goals and 53 points in 69 games split between the Frontenacs and Petes. He has tremendous vision and high-end passing skills with a quick release and accurate shot. Unfortunately, defense is not his strong suit, and his average size (6-0, 180) doesn't make for a very physical player. Quine could be one of those one-dimensional guys who is doomed to be a minor leaguer, but if he ever figures out how to round out his game, he certainly has the talent to be a top-six NHL forward.
Garrett Meurs, C Plymouth (OHL)- Another disappointment like Quine in that Meurs was a playmaking pivot from whom bigger things were expected after a 16-goal, 34-point rookie campaign with the Whalers. The 5-11, 172-pounder only managed 10 goals and 40 points in 2011, but played better hockey near the end of the season after looking listless and ineffective for much of the time. Meurs is a talented forward who isn't the prettiest-looking skater, but manages to get where he needs to go. Needs to improve first step in the eyes of several scouts, who feel his skating will hold him back at the next level. Shows the intangibles you want like vision, offensive instincts and has a feisty side despite not being the biggest guy out there. Another member of Team Canada's Ivan Hlinka champion last August, Meurs must get a lot stronger. His stock is on the wane, but if he gets back on his developmental track, he's got potential as a later value pick in this class.
Jesse Forsberg, D Prince George (WHL)- Smallish defender at 6-0, 195 pounds was one of the higher-rated players in the WHL coming into it, but pretty much fell off the map with a subpar offensive season and a weird, hunched-over skating style that is a turnoff for scouts. Works hard and plays a gritty, hard-nosed game despite a lack of height and power, but is pretty limited in terms of his puck-moving ability and upside at the next level. Could force his way into the NHL much like Andrew Ference did, but Ference at least put up some pretty good numbers in Portland back in the day. Forsberg's 2 goals and 16 points at the junior level will give pause to any team thinking of drafting him in the top-100, but he has the kind of edge and work ethic to make himself a player one day. Worth the risk after the third round.
Austen Brassard, RW Belleville (OHL)- A frustrating tease, in the words of one NHL scout. This 6-2, 190-pound winger put up 17 points in just 26 games last season after being traded from Windsor to the Bulls, so the conventional thinking was that Brassard would make the obvious jump in production this year. Didn't happen. With 19 goals and 34 points in 67 games, the talent is not an issue, as he's a pretty good skater and has the quick hands and nose for the net, but brings a maddening inconsistency and penchant for disappearing for large stretches to the mix. Brassard is capable of doing so much more, but is largely undelivered potential at this point. He's worth a gamble with a later-round pick like the sixth the B's spent on Tyler Randell two years ago, but the light may never come on for Brassard.
Scott Harrington, D London (OHL)- First-round talent had high hopes this year and looked like a good bet to deliver after a solid Ivan Hlinka performance in August. Unfortunately, Harrington struggled with the defensive aspect of his game this season, which was a strength last season, and according to scouts, showed off some indecisive play early on and never really found his groove. Although mobile with crisp change-of-direction ability, Harrington was never thought of as an offensive player, but his gap control, positioning, smarts and work ethic all drew raves last year. This season, he regressed and seemed to let the pressure of his draft year and London's struggles get to him. He could be a solid pro if he can get back to his previous level, but that will require a club who saw enough of him last year to be confident he can get his mojo back.
Andrei Makarov, G Lewiston (QMJHL)- Highly athletic Russian goalie carried high expectations all the way to Maine, but played so poorly early in the season that even his late resurgence may not be enough to see him picked. His poor technique and lack of fundamentals were exposed early on, but to his credit, he battled and tried to work through it. Showed improvement as the season wore on, and he could be one of these guys who goes the distance because he has such natural size, flexibility and is a bit of an acrobat in net. He's going to require a great deal of time and patience, but the payoff could be big.
Up next will be a post with some sleeper picks for the class, and with that, should bring everyone up to speed on many of the top options for June. We will come back in May with a playoff review when the league championships are all in the books.
Risers
Ryan Sproul, D Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)- Hit a huge growth spurt and now stands at about 6-4 after being drafted by the Greyhounds at a little over 6-feet. Played in the OJHL before jumping to the OHL and showed a lot of promise as a mobile, agile two-way defenseman who came out of left field this season laboring for a non-playoff squad. He didn't suffer any ill-effects of the surge in height, and is a powerful skater with a long, fluid stride that scouts really like. When he adds strength and mass to his skinny frame, he'll be even more of a defensive horse than he is already. As one would imagine, he's got a big gun from the point, and just think how much more lethal it will be when he develops more oomph behind it. Very raw, but with one of the most intriguing projectable of any player in the OHL, this guy is going to be the subject of a lot of internet draft chatter between now and June 24-25.
Here's a nice feature on Sproul from Brock Otten's OHL Prospects blog
Seth Griffith, C/RW London (OHL)- Smallish but skilled forward came on strong for the Knights after a large chunk of veterans were traded away. Showed some chemistry with B's prospect Jared Knight and fellow 2011 draft prospect Vladislav Namestnikov. Quick and agile; handles the puck well and has the look of a dangerous scorer in the OHL over the next couple of years. His lacrosse background serves him well in hockey. A player to watch; was a sleeper but finished season with nearly point-per-game for London (22-40-62 in 68 games as a rookie), so he's on a lot of NHL radars now.
Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (SWE-2)- Youngster has gained a lot of confidence playing in Sweden's Allsvenskan division against men: 45 games, 2-7-9. He's a good skater who plays a solid two-way game and has the size (6-2, 196) to be an effective NHL player eventually. Has a cannon of a shot, but could stand to improve quickness of his release and accuracy. Overall, he's an interesting developmental project as a player who needs to be a little more physical and assertive in his own end, but appears to have the tools to be an NHL prospect to watch.
Magnus Hellberg, G Almtuna (SWE-2)- A 1991 birthdate and late-bloomer who was passed over in 2009 and 2010, NHL teams won't make that mistake again in 2011. Huge at 6-5, 185 pounds and cat-quick between the pipes. Performed brilliantly for Almtuna in the Allsvenskan this season, posting a 2.04 GAA and .936 save percentage in 31 games. He was then loaned to IFK Kumla in the Division 1 league and posted a 2.01 GAA and .938 mark. With his superb athleticism, upside and performance, his developmental curve is straight up, not to mention as an older, more mature player, he's ready to come to the AHL next season and start right away.
Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)- Big Russian defenseman (6-4, 195) came into the OHL this year with a lot of hype after an outstanding Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Russia and only managed to score two goals and 12 points in 51 games, with both tallies coming at the very end of the season. Interestingly enough, he's already posted five points in just three playoff games and his stock is on the rebound. NHL teams liked his size and mobility/agility as an effective shutdown 'D', but he had shown very little offensive element to his performance to justify a high pick. Now, with Pedan starting to bring the offense at crunch time, he's elevating his profile at just the right time.
Zach Franko, LW Kelowna (WHL)- A smaller guy at 5-11, 160, but shifty, fast and a very good puckhandler. Franko, like teammate Shane McColgan, got off to a slow start offensively, but really came on over the second half for the Rockets and will no doubt be on a lot of teams' boards come June. He finished the year with 22 goals and 53 points in 72 games, but has fine hockey sense and vision to go with his wheels and quick stick. He's got to get much stronger, but he could explode offensively in the WHL over the next 1-2 years.
Mitch Elliot, LW Seattle (WHL)- Behemoth winger at 6-5, 215 pounds has legitimate toughness but a modicum of skill as well. He hasn't been very productive with the non-playoff Thunderbirds over the past couple of season, scoring just 6 goals and 17 points in 128 games to go with 157 penalty minutes. Elliot's upside is limited, but he skates pretty well for such a big guy and NHL teams do love their tough wingers.
Fallers
Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL)- This skilled pivot with a high hockey IQ came into the year as a first-round projection, but got off to a slow start with Kingston and never recovered. He was on the gold medal team at the Ivan Hlinka tourney, and was eventually traded to Peterborough for Ryan Spooner. He finished the season with 26 goals and 53 points in 69 games split between the Frontenacs and Petes. He has tremendous vision and high-end passing skills with a quick release and accurate shot. Unfortunately, defense is not his strong suit, and his average size (6-0, 180) doesn't make for a very physical player. Quine could be one of those one-dimensional guys who is doomed to be a minor leaguer, but if he ever figures out how to round out his game, he certainly has the talent to be a top-six NHL forward.
Garrett Meurs, C Plymouth (OHL)- Another disappointment like Quine in that Meurs was a playmaking pivot from whom bigger things were expected after a 16-goal, 34-point rookie campaign with the Whalers. The 5-11, 172-pounder only managed 10 goals and 40 points in 2011, but played better hockey near the end of the season after looking listless and ineffective for much of the time. Meurs is a talented forward who isn't the prettiest-looking skater, but manages to get where he needs to go. Needs to improve first step in the eyes of several scouts, who feel his skating will hold him back at the next level. Shows the intangibles you want like vision, offensive instincts and has a feisty side despite not being the biggest guy out there. Another member of Team Canada's Ivan Hlinka champion last August, Meurs must get a lot stronger. His stock is on the wane, but if he gets back on his developmental track, he's got potential as a later value pick in this class.
Jesse Forsberg, D Prince George (WHL)- Smallish defender at 6-0, 195 pounds was one of the higher-rated players in the WHL coming into it, but pretty much fell off the map with a subpar offensive season and a weird, hunched-over skating style that is a turnoff for scouts. Works hard and plays a gritty, hard-nosed game despite a lack of height and power, but is pretty limited in terms of his puck-moving ability and upside at the next level. Could force his way into the NHL much like Andrew Ference did, but Ference at least put up some pretty good numbers in Portland back in the day. Forsberg's 2 goals and 16 points at the junior level will give pause to any team thinking of drafting him in the top-100, but he has the kind of edge and work ethic to make himself a player one day. Worth the risk after the third round.
Austen Brassard, RW Belleville (OHL)- A frustrating tease, in the words of one NHL scout. This 6-2, 190-pound winger put up 17 points in just 26 games last season after being traded from Windsor to the Bulls, so the conventional thinking was that Brassard would make the obvious jump in production this year. Didn't happen. With 19 goals and 34 points in 67 games, the talent is not an issue, as he's a pretty good skater and has the quick hands and nose for the net, but brings a maddening inconsistency and penchant for disappearing for large stretches to the mix. Brassard is capable of doing so much more, but is largely undelivered potential at this point. He's worth a gamble with a later-round pick like the sixth the B's spent on Tyler Randell two years ago, but the light may never come on for Brassard.
Scott Harrington, D London (OHL)- First-round talent had high hopes this year and looked like a good bet to deliver after a solid Ivan Hlinka performance in August. Unfortunately, Harrington struggled with the defensive aspect of his game this season, which was a strength last season, and according to scouts, showed off some indecisive play early on and never really found his groove. Although mobile with crisp change-of-direction ability, Harrington was never thought of as an offensive player, but his gap control, positioning, smarts and work ethic all drew raves last year. This season, he regressed and seemed to let the pressure of his draft year and London's struggles get to him. He could be a solid pro if he can get back to his previous level, but that will require a club who saw enough of him last year to be confident he can get his mojo back.
Andrei Makarov, G Lewiston (QMJHL)- Highly athletic Russian goalie carried high expectations all the way to Maine, but played so poorly early in the season that even his late resurgence may not be enough to see him picked. His poor technique and lack of fundamentals were exposed early on, but to his credit, he battled and tried to work through it. Showed improvement as the season wore on, and he could be one of these guys who goes the distance because he has such natural size, flexibility and is a bit of an acrobat in net. He's going to require a great deal of time and patience, but the payoff could be big.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Mock draft results: More fantasy than reality, but fun
Participated in a seven-round mock NHL draft last month on Hockey's Future Boards, hosted by the member called "Cup" as the GM of the Boston Bruins. Cup does this every year and he tries to bring in as many informed folks as he can via invite to make the picks.
You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.
Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.
Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.
So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.
Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.
Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.
Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.
Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.
Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.
Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.
Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.
Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.
Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.
Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube
Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.
Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.
Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!
Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal
Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.
Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.
Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.
You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.
Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.
Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.
So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.
Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)
Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.
Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.
Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.
Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.
Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.
Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.
Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.
Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.
Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.
Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube
Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.
Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.
Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!
Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal
Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.
Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.
Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.
Monday, September 6, 2010
B2011DW's Official European 2010-11 player watch list
At long last, I've managed to compile my initial list of European players to keep an eye on for the 2010-11 hockey season.
For the most part, the Bruins have stayed away from Europe since 2006 when they drafted defenseman Yuri Alexandrov in the second round.
In the four drafts since, the B's have nabbed a grand total of three Europeans (Denis Reul- Germany, Radim Ostrcil- Czech Republic in '07 and Maxim Chudinov- Russia in '10), and none of them have come in the first half of the lottery.
Like 2009, the 2011 draft class appears to be very strong in terms of the Swedish contingent. I've already profiled Adam Larsson just a few posts below, and he's so good that we'll be talking about him all season, but the Tri Kronor also have some highly skilled prospects in the form of Victor Rask (he's a Swede and therefore no relation to Boston goalie Tuukka), Oscar Klefbom, Jonas Brodin, Joachim Nermark and Mika Zibanejad to name a few (and Gabriel Landeskog, who skates for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers, isn't even included in this high-end group!). Neighboring Finland boasts a skilled forward with size in Joel Armia, while Denmark has a top-10 candidate in Nicklas Jensen, a power winger and an Oshawa General for the upcoming season. Russia boasts a few intriguing players, but as has been the trend, because of the lack of a transfer agreement and signability issues, those who stay home to play hockey this season will fall further in the draft than their talent would dictate. Zakhar Arzamastsev and Maxim Shalunov fall into this category, while goalie Andrei Makarov, who will backstop the Lewiston Maine-iacs this season does not. Not to be forgotten is the Eastern European contingent from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the best of whom may be Petr Placek, who will skate for the Hotchkiss School of all places this season. More on him later, as I neglected to mention him in my New England prep watch list and preview. Other players to keep an eye on from those countries: Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka, Slovak defender Peter Cerešnák, forwards Michal Svihalek and Lukas Sedlak.
Interestingly enough, some of the best European players available in 2011 are playing in North America this season: Czech defenseman David Musil (Vancouver- WHL), Landeskog, Jensen, German forward Tobias Rieder (Kitchener- OHL), Russian centers Vladislav Namestnikov (London- OHL) and Alex Khokhlachev (Windsor- OHL), Slovak winger Tomas Jurco (Saint John- QMJHL), Russian defenseman Andrei Pedan (Guelph- OHL), Czech forward Petr Beranek (Barrie- OHL), Slovak winger Marek Tvrdon (Vancouver- WHL) Czech goalie David Honzik (Victoriaville- QMJHL)Placek, Makarov and Swedish forward (another one?) Rickard Rakell (Plymouth- OHL) are all across the Atlantic and access to them will be much more available. If they get the job done, it will undoubtedly boost their draft stock come June.
So, without further ado-- here is the Euro watch list. Swede-heavy it is, but they're the ones with the dominant presence on the preseason draft lists. Where it will all shake out come June is anyone's guess, but with Larsson leading the way, don't bet against them.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå AIK (Sweden)-- The total package has a good chance of becoming the first Swede to go 1st overall in the draft since Mats Sundin because two-way defenders with size and skill are so coveted. For more of the nuts and bolts on Larsson's skill level, see my previous post on him, but can't wait to see him live in Buffalo this winter at the WJC. Most eyes will be on him after he put up a very impressive performance on Team Sweden a year ago at age 17. "He's far and away the best player coming out of Europe this season, period and exclamation point," said one NHL scout who covers Europe for a western conference team via email. "He has the size, mobility, offensive game and is pretty polished defensively. The big question is- can he keep progressing after having such a good 09-10 season? If he does, then I think you'll see him make a real claim on the top pick in the draft."
2. Victor Rask, C Leskand (Sweden)-- Superb passer and playmaker has the size, skating and creativity to be a points machine in the NHL someday. Plays with some jam and goes hard to the net; more of a setup man than a finisher, but has a hard, heavy shot and isn't afraid to let it rip. Excellent stickhandler who can take the puck into traffic and come out with it. Thinks the offensive side of the game real well and has that instinctiveness you want in a top-six centerman. Didn't have a great Ivan Hlinka tourney according to some accounts, yet still put up six assists in five games...that gives you an idea of what his potential is. Could put up big points with the Leksand allsvenskan team this year; he played eight scoreless games for them last season at 16, and probably doesn't have much else to prove at the junior level. "I like Rask a lot," the NHL scout said. "He's got very quick hands and the ability to set up plays because he's creative and knows how to find his teammates. Along with (Adam) Larsson, he's been one of Sweden's best players in the international tournaments."
3. Oscar Klefbom, D Skåre (Sweden) -- Superb offensive defenseman has the size, skating and puck moving skills to be a player, but unlike Larsson, has some real deficiencies in his defensive game. At 6-3, 195 possesses the kind of frame that will make him highly appealing to NHL teams. Has soft hands and can ignite the rush either with a crisp breakout pass or take it himself up the ice with a long, loping stride. Creative and slick-- makes plays with his head up and shows advanced skill and poise with the puck. Physical game is substandard; not strong on the biscuit and doesn't show much propensity to initiate contact or fight for pucks along the walls. At his best in open ice and on the point where he can use his mobility and instincts to create scoring chances. Defensive zone coverage needs a lot of work, but as far as offensive puck movers go, Klefbom is one of the best in class and proved it with his goal and eight points in five games at the Ivan Hlinka.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad Jr. (Sweden)-- Not quite the offensive presence Klefbom is, Brodin is probably a better all-around defender and certainly has the kind of upside scouts covet. He's a smart, instinctive player who may not jump out at you the way Larsson and Klefbom (in the neutral and offensive zones) do, but he keeps things pretty simple and keeps his head up, looking to make the play. He doesn't have the kind of numbers that scream two-way defenseman, but he can pass the puck and is a fluid and mobile skater. He's a safer pick than Klefbom is, but may in time become the more dependable NHL player if he makes it.
5. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (Finland)-- This big kid (6-3, 190) has all of the tools you look for and could shoot up the draft charts because he also seems to have the competitiveness and drive that other skilled Finnish forwards have lacked in other drafts (helloooo Mikko Lehtonen). Armia's first step is only average, but he's pretty fast once he gets going. He's not all that agile and elusive, and will need to work on adding strength to his lower body and better balance overall. He can handle the puck well and has a hard shot. He goes into the greasy areas of the ice and hard to the net. He had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Finland and has been a productive junior player in Ässät's system. Watch this guy-- he could end up being a very good one.
6. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (Sweden)-- Another Swedish player in the top-10? Say it isn't so, but Nermark had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney, scoring five goals and 12 points for the bronze medal-winning squad. He's an all-around offensive scoring forward who doesn't possess blazing speed, but just seems to be wherever the puck is on every shift. He works hard and gives an honest effort in all zones. Crafty, creative and opportunistic, Red Line Report rated him as the top Swede in Slovakia (and with 12 points in five games is that really a surprise?), but he'll have to prove he can produce over the course of the entire season. Still, aside from the average size (6-0, 180) there isn't a lot not to like about this gamer.
7. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (Russia)-- If potential were all that counted, this power forward would be near the top of every draft list. He's big, can skate pretty well and has the soft hands and wicked shot to be a force on each shift. Unfortunately, he lacks competitive drive and tends to be invisible when the games matter most. Still, he cracks the top-10 because he's one of those players who, if the light ever comes on for, look out. At 6-3, 190, he's going to get bigger and stronger. When the puck is on his stick, he's someone to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, it's that other nagging aspect of having to play effectively when you don't have the puck that's Shalunov's biggest hurdle to cracking the top-60 in Minnesota.
8. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (Sweden)-- Admittedly, this is a B2011DW favorite because of what he did at last year's Under-17 championship (six goals, 17 points in nine games), but his Ivan Hlinka performance didn't warrant where I wanted to put him, so he's down the list. He's got nice size and skates pretty well (though his first step and turning ability need work), and can set up the play or finish it off. He's very good in distribution of the puck especially with the man advantage, and likes being the go-to guy on offense for his team. He's cocky but in a good way-- supremely confident in his talents and loves the game. It's really saying something that a player of Zibanejad's natural abilities is only the sixth player on this particular list of late '92/'93-born prospects from the same country. Was there some kind of super serum in the Swedish water supply during that timeframe?
9. Peter Cerešnák, D Dukla Trencin (Slovakia)-- Stay-at-home shutdown defenseman has nice size and potential, although isn't a headline-grabber. Skating is OK- straight line mobility is fine and he's actually better laterally and able to turn pretty well. Plays like a freight train, lining up players along the boards for big hits and if he can time it right, nailing guys in the open ice. Gets to running around, though-- has a lot to learn about positioning and keeping things simple. He's raw, but an interesting project much like Martin Marincin was last year. He doesn't have Marincin's size or mobility, but is nastier and plays bigger than his size (6-2, 200).
10. Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (Sweden)-- A little bit of a contrast to his higher-profile countrymen who are more offensively inclined at this stage of their development. Bengtsson is more of a defensive defenseman who isn't as fluid a skater and plays more of a conservative stay-at-home style. The 6-2, 190-pounder has a big shot, but takes a long time to unload it and needs work on improving the accuracy of his drive. Played with Klefbom at the Ivan Hlinka and was the yin to his offensive, riverboat gambler partner's style. Bengtsson looks like a solid third-round option at this point, but is someone to watch nonetheless.
Others of note--
Viktor Arvidsson, RW Skellefteå AIK Jr. (Sweden)-- Small (5-8, 150) but highly skilled shooter needs a lot of mustard to cover this hotdog, but boy can ever he can put the puck in the net! Very good speed and a wicked shot that he can wire anywhere from inside the hashmarks. Scored five goals for the Swedes in Slovakia. One of those pesky little twerps who never stops moving and skating (and that is meant as a compliment, btw), and digging for loose change and scoring chances. The size is going to scare teams off, but the scoring chops are definitely legit and if he can add a little mass to his frame, might get a longer look from someone not afraid to invest a pick in a tiny, but talented winger.
Markus Granlund, LW HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- Mikael's little bro doesn't have the top Minnesota prospect's pure hockey sense and talent, but will be a player to watch because he's still got skill and is a better skater. Granlund was one of Finland's better forwards at the Ivan Hlinka, but it was not enough. Showed good chemistry with Mikael at the Under-18s last spring, and you could see a reunion of the two brothers on a line for Tesm Finland in Buffalo this winter at the World Jr. Championships.
Richard Ullberg, G HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- The latest offering from the Finnish goalie factory, Ullberg is a Tuukka Rask clone-- tall (6-3), lanky (175) and a real butterfly/technician who doesn't give up very much of the net to shoot at. When he's hot, he's very good. When he's not...ehh-- not so much. Must work to improve consistency this season and not give up soft goals. Has the physical attributes to be a very good NHL goalie, but must address the mental aspect in order to be a top draft pick and prospect going forward.
Konstantin Komarek, RW Luleå Jr. (Austria)-- Vienna-born Austrian of Eastern European parentage is playing in Sweden this season-- did you follow that? Smallish (5-10, 180) little pepperpot can skate and score and should get some nice development in Sweden as opposed to Austria, where hockey isn't played at a very high level. Like Arvidsson, he can put the puck in the net, but the lack of size will be something that probably holds him back come draft time.
Lukáš Králík, C Olomouc (Czech Republic)-- Has a nice frame (6-1) but needs to fill out and get a lot stronger. A pretty good skater who has an efficient stride and should increase his speed and power with more physical maturity and weight room work. Has a quick release and can find the back of the net with an accurate wrister. Sees the ice well and plays with good offensive instincts.
Michal Švihálek, RW Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Kid can really score, but according to reports that's all he does. Has good, not great hockey sense and a nose for the net, but doesn't carry the kind of intensity you want in a player from shift to shift. Scores big goals, but his skill level doesn't carry the same kind of weight-- is he one of those intangibles guys who will find a way to score at the next level, or are we seeing the best from him now? That's the kind of question that is sure to spark some interesting debates in NHL war rooms.
Lukas Sedlak, C Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Good, solid defensive forward plays a North American-style game and doesn't score like Svihalek, but is a far better all-around forward. Thinks the game well and competes hard and finishes his checks. Has a soft touch on the puck and is good on faceoffs. Isn't a draft name, but could make some NHL team very happy in time-- has the attitude to be the kind of player who is more than the sum of his parts.
More Europeans to watch--
Victor Berglind, D Brynäs (Sweden)
Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Metallurg Novokuznetsk (Russia- KHL)
Daniel Mannberg, F Luleå (Sweden)
Johan Sundström, F Frölunda (Sweden)
Andrei Sigarev, F Lada Togliatti (Russia)
Dean Kukan, D GKC Lions (Switzerland)
Jesper Kokkonen, F Ilves Tampere (Finland)
For the most part, the Bruins have stayed away from Europe since 2006 when they drafted defenseman Yuri Alexandrov in the second round.
In the four drafts since, the B's have nabbed a grand total of three Europeans (Denis Reul- Germany, Radim Ostrcil- Czech Republic in '07 and Maxim Chudinov- Russia in '10), and none of them have come in the first half of the lottery.
Like 2009, the 2011 draft class appears to be very strong in terms of the Swedish contingent. I've already profiled Adam Larsson just a few posts below, and he's so good that we'll be talking about him all season, but the Tri Kronor also have some highly skilled prospects in the form of Victor Rask (he's a Swede and therefore no relation to Boston goalie Tuukka), Oscar Klefbom, Jonas Brodin, Joachim Nermark and Mika Zibanejad to name a few (and Gabriel Landeskog, who skates for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers, isn't even included in this high-end group!). Neighboring Finland boasts a skilled forward with size in Joel Armia, while Denmark has a top-10 candidate in Nicklas Jensen, a power winger and an Oshawa General for the upcoming season. Russia boasts a few intriguing players, but as has been the trend, because of the lack of a transfer agreement and signability issues, those who stay home to play hockey this season will fall further in the draft than their talent would dictate. Zakhar Arzamastsev and Maxim Shalunov fall into this category, while goalie Andrei Makarov, who will backstop the Lewiston Maine-iacs this season does not. Not to be forgotten is the Eastern European contingent from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the best of whom may be Petr Placek, who will skate for the Hotchkiss School of all places this season. More on him later, as I neglected to mention him in my New England prep watch list and preview. Other players to keep an eye on from those countries: Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka, Slovak defender Peter Cerešnák, forwards Michal Svihalek and Lukas Sedlak.
Interestingly enough, some of the best European players available in 2011 are playing in North America this season: Czech defenseman David Musil (Vancouver- WHL), Landeskog, Jensen, German forward Tobias Rieder (Kitchener- OHL), Russian centers Vladislav Namestnikov (London- OHL) and Alex Khokhlachev (Windsor- OHL), Slovak winger Tomas Jurco (Saint John- QMJHL), Russian defenseman Andrei Pedan (Guelph- OHL), Czech forward Petr Beranek (Barrie- OHL), Slovak winger Marek Tvrdon (Vancouver- WHL) Czech goalie David Honzik (Victoriaville- QMJHL)Placek, Makarov and Swedish forward (another one?) Rickard Rakell (Plymouth- OHL) are all across the Atlantic and access to them will be much more available. If they get the job done, it will undoubtedly boost their draft stock come June.
So, without further ado-- here is the Euro watch list. Swede-heavy it is, but they're the ones with the dominant presence on the preseason draft lists. Where it will all shake out come June is anyone's guess, but with Larsson leading the way, don't bet against them.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå AIK (Sweden)-- The total package has a good chance of becoming the first Swede to go 1st overall in the draft since Mats Sundin because two-way defenders with size and skill are so coveted. For more of the nuts and bolts on Larsson's skill level, see my previous post on him, but can't wait to see him live in Buffalo this winter at the WJC. Most eyes will be on him after he put up a very impressive performance on Team Sweden a year ago at age 17. "He's far and away the best player coming out of Europe this season, period and exclamation point," said one NHL scout who covers Europe for a western conference team via email. "He has the size, mobility, offensive game and is pretty polished defensively. The big question is- can he keep progressing after having such a good 09-10 season? If he does, then I think you'll see him make a real claim on the top pick in the draft."
2. Victor Rask, C Leskand (Sweden)-- Superb passer and playmaker has the size, skating and creativity to be a points machine in the NHL someday. Plays with some jam and goes hard to the net; more of a setup man than a finisher, but has a hard, heavy shot and isn't afraid to let it rip. Excellent stickhandler who can take the puck into traffic and come out with it. Thinks the offensive side of the game real well and has that instinctiveness you want in a top-six centerman. Didn't have a great Ivan Hlinka tourney according to some accounts, yet still put up six assists in five games...that gives you an idea of what his potential is. Could put up big points with the Leksand allsvenskan team this year; he played eight scoreless games for them last season at 16, and probably doesn't have much else to prove at the junior level. "I like Rask a lot," the NHL scout said. "He's got very quick hands and the ability to set up plays because he's creative and knows how to find his teammates. Along with (Adam) Larsson, he's been one of Sweden's best players in the international tournaments."
3. Oscar Klefbom, D Skåre (Sweden) -- Superb offensive defenseman has the size, skating and puck moving skills to be a player, but unlike Larsson, has some real deficiencies in his defensive game. At 6-3, 195 possesses the kind of frame that will make him highly appealing to NHL teams. Has soft hands and can ignite the rush either with a crisp breakout pass or take it himself up the ice with a long, loping stride. Creative and slick-- makes plays with his head up and shows advanced skill and poise with the puck. Physical game is substandard; not strong on the biscuit and doesn't show much propensity to initiate contact or fight for pucks along the walls. At his best in open ice and on the point where he can use his mobility and instincts to create scoring chances. Defensive zone coverage needs a lot of work, but as far as offensive puck movers go, Klefbom is one of the best in class and proved it with his goal and eight points in five games at the Ivan Hlinka.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad Jr. (Sweden)-- Not quite the offensive presence Klefbom is, Brodin is probably a better all-around defender and certainly has the kind of upside scouts covet. He's a smart, instinctive player who may not jump out at you the way Larsson and Klefbom (in the neutral and offensive zones) do, but he keeps things pretty simple and keeps his head up, looking to make the play. He doesn't have the kind of numbers that scream two-way defenseman, but he can pass the puck and is a fluid and mobile skater. He's a safer pick than Klefbom is, but may in time become the more dependable NHL player if he makes it.
5. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (Finland)-- This big kid (6-3, 190) has all of the tools you look for and could shoot up the draft charts because he also seems to have the competitiveness and drive that other skilled Finnish forwards have lacked in other drafts (helloooo Mikko Lehtonen). Armia's first step is only average, but he's pretty fast once he gets going. He's not all that agile and elusive, and will need to work on adding strength to his lower body and better balance overall. He can handle the puck well and has a hard shot. He goes into the greasy areas of the ice and hard to the net. He had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Finland and has been a productive junior player in Ässät's system. Watch this guy-- he could end up being a very good one.
6. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (Sweden)-- Another Swedish player in the top-10? Say it isn't so, but Nermark had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney, scoring five goals and 12 points for the bronze medal-winning squad. He's an all-around offensive scoring forward who doesn't possess blazing speed, but just seems to be wherever the puck is on every shift. He works hard and gives an honest effort in all zones. Crafty, creative and opportunistic, Red Line Report rated him as the top Swede in Slovakia (and with 12 points in five games is that really a surprise?), but he'll have to prove he can produce over the course of the entire season. Still, aside from the average size (6-0, 180) there isn't a lot not to like about this gamer.
7. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (Russia)-- If potential were all that counted, this power forward would be near the top of every draft list. He's big, can skate pretty well and has the soft hands and wicked shot to be a force on each shift. Unfortunately, he lacks competitive drive and tends to be invisible when the games matter most. Still, he cracks the top-10 because he's one of those players who, if the light ever comes on for, look out. At 6-3, 190, he's going to get bigger and stronger. When the puck is on his stick, he's someone to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, it's that other nagging aspect of having to play effectively when you don't have the puck that's Shalunov's biggest hurdle to cracking the top-60 in Minnesota.
8. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (Sweden)-- Admittedly, this is a B2011DW favorite because of what he did at last year's Under-17 championship (six goals, 17 points in nine games), but his Ivan Hlinka performance didn't warrant where I wanted to put him, so he's down the list. He's got nice size and skates pretty well (though his first step and turning ability need work), and can set up the play or finish it off. He's very good in distribution of the puck especially with the man advantage, and likes being the go-to guy on offense for his team. He's cocky but in a good way-- supremely confident in his talents and loves the game. It's really saying something that a player of Zibanejad's natural abilities is only the sixth player on this particular list of late '92/'93-born prospects from the same country. Was there some kind of super serum in the Swedish water supply during that timeframe?
9. Peter Cerešnák, D Dukla Trencin (Slovakia)-- Stay-at-home shutdown defenseman has nice size and potential, although isn't a headline-grabber. Skating is OK- straight line mobility is fine and he's actually better laterally and able to turn pretty well. Plays like a freight train, lining up players along the boards for big hits and if he can time it right, nailing guys in the open ice. Gets to running around, though-- has a lot to learn about positioning and keeping things simple. He's raw, but an interesting project much like Martin Marincin was last year. He doesn't have Marincin's size or mobility, but is nastier and plays bigger than his size (6-2, 200).
10. Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (Sweden)-- A little bit of a contrast to his higher-profile countrymen who are more offensively inclined at this stage of their development. Bengtsson is more of a defensive defenseman who isn't as fluid a skater and plays more of a conservative stay-at-home style. The 6-2, 190-pounder has a big shot, but takes a long time to unload it and needs work on improving the accuracy of his drive. Played with Klefbom at the Ivan Hlinka and was the yin to his offensive, riverboat gambler partner's style. Bengtsson looks like a solid third-round option at this point, but is someone to watch nonetheless.
Others of note--
Viktor Arvidsson, RW Skellefteå AIK Jr. (Sweden)-- Small (5-8, 150) but highly skilled shooter needs a lot of mustard to cover this hotdog, but boy can ever he can put the puck in the net! Very good speed and a wicked shot that he can wire anywhere from inside the hashmarks. Scored five goals for the Swedes in Slovakia. One of those pesky little twerps who never stops moving and skating (and that is meant as a compliment, btw), and digging for loose change and scoring chances. The size is going to scare teams off, but the scoring chops are definitely legit and if he can add a little mass to his frame, might get a longer look from someone not afraid to invest a pick in a tiny, but talented winger.
Markus Granlund, LW HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- Mikael's little bro doesn't have the top Minnesota prospect's pure hockey sense and talent, but will be a player to watch because he's still got skill and is a better skater. Granlund was one of Finland's better forwards at the Ivan Hlinka, but it was not enough. Showed good chemistry with Mikael at the Under-18s last spring, and you could see a reunion of the two brothers on a line for Tesm Finland in Buffalo this winter at the World Jr. Championships.
Richard Ullberg, G HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- The latest offering from the Finnish goalie factory, Ullberg is a Tuukka Rask clone-- tall (6-3), lanky (175) and a real butterfly/technician who doesn't give up very much of the net to shoot at. When he's hot, he's very good. When he's not...ehh-- not so much. Must work to improve consistency this season and not give up soft goals. Has the physical attributes to be a very good NHL goalie, but must address the mental aspect in order to be a top draft pick and prospect going forward.
Konstantin Komarek, RW Luleå Jr. (Austria)-- Vienna-born Austrian of Eastern European parentage is playing in Sweden this season-- did you follow that? Smallish (5-10, 180) little pepperpot can skate and score and should get some nice development in Sweden as opposed to Austria, where hockey isn't played at a very high level. Like Arvidsson, he can put the puck in the net, but the lack of size will be something that probably holds him back come draft time.
Lukáš Králík, C Olomouc (Czech Republic)-- Has a nice frame (6-1) but needs to fill out and get a lot stronger. A pretty good skater who has an efficient stride and should increase his speed and power with more physical maturity and weight room work. Has a quick release and can find the back of the net with an accurate wrister. Sees the ice well and plays with good offensive instincts.
Michal Švihálek, RW Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Kid can really score, but according to reports that's all he does. Has good, not great hockey sense and a nose for the net, but doesn't carry the kind of intensity you want in a player from shift to shift. Scores big goals, but his skill level doesn't carry the same kind of weight-- is he one of those intangibles guys who will find a way to score at the next level, or are we seeing the best from him now? That's the kind of question that is sure to spark some interesting debates in NHL war rooms.
Lukas Sedlak, C Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Good, solid defensive forward plays a North American-style game and doesn't score like Svihalek, but is a far better all-around forward. Thinks the game well and competes hard and finishes his checks. Has a soft touch on the puck and is good on faceoffs. Isn't a draft name, but could make some NHL team very happy in time-- has the attitude to be the kind of player who is more than the sum of his parts.
More Europeans to watch--
Victor Berglind, D Brynäs (Sweden)
Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Metallurg Novokuznetsk (Russia- KHL)
Daniel Mannberg, F Luleå (Sweden)
Johan Sundström, F Frölunda (Sweden)
Andrei Sigarev, F Lada Togliatti (Russia)
Dean Kukan, D GKC Lions (Switzerland)
Jesper Kokkonen, F Ilves Tampere (Finland)
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