Grading the 2011 Draft Part 2

We're back with team grades for the NHL's 11-20 for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. Big winner is Edmonton, with the only A+ grade so far.

We'll start off on the right foot with the Oilers, who had a tremendous two days in St. Paul.

Edmonton Oilers
Grade: A+
Potential franchise center in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins? Check. (We heard all year that 2011 didn't have top talent at the top, but several scouts said RNH was an exception) Potential top-two defenseman with upside and charisma in Oscar Klefbom? Check. Excellent value shutdown D in David Musil? Check. Goaltending depth in Samu Perhonen? Check. Upside and depth the rest of the way with Travis Ewanyk, Dillon Simpson, Tobias Rieder and Martin Gernat? Absolutely. Don't know anything about goalie Frans Tuohimaa, but with a class that strong, who cares? We don't think Steve Tambellini could have set the board up any better in his wildest dreams.

Florida Panthers
Grade: A
Panthers GM Dale Tallon has built quite a war chest in just two drafts. From the looks of it, the 2011 draft upgraded Florida's system even more after what looked like a strong 2010 showing. The Panthers get two high-end offensive players in Jonathan Huberdeau and Rocco Grimaldi with their first two selections. At the end of the second round, they landed intriguing Swedish d-man Rasmus Bengtsson. With a pair of third-round picks, the Panthers grabbed more help up front getting the big and skilled but needing to get more physical Logan Shaw from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles and small, but fiery Vincent Trocheck out of Saginaw. They went to Minnesota for two later picks, grabbing Mr. Hockey Kyle Rau, a highly skilled forward out of Eden Prairie High and Burnsville's Eddie Wittchow. All in all, this is another solid draft in year 2 for Tallon and Co.

Los Angeles Kings
Grade: B
The draft grade is closer to a C, but in landing Mike Richards, the Kings get a full letter grade boost. After trading their first-rounder to Edmonton for Dustin Penner, Lombardi and company picked up goalie help with Christopher Gibson, a talented and good kid who had a strong season with Chicoutimi, but who also has some holes in his technique he'll need to address. They grabbed overage forward and 33-goal man Andy Andreoff from Oshawa and then got some nice value with utility forward Nick Shore at Denver University. They got some raw, but interesting picks later with Mike Mersch, Joel Lowry and Michael Schumacher, but not a great deal of upside here. They are no doubt hoping to make a splash by landing Brad Richards via free agency.

Minnesota Wild
Grade: A-
Some wheeling and dealing boosts Minnesota's grade from the B+ range. Jonas Brodin is one of the smartest defenders in the draft and will need to get a lot stronger, but could prove to be a very good puck mover and power play QB in time. After acquiring San Jose's first-rounder (along with Charlie Coyle) for Brent Burns, they snagged natural scorer Zack Phillips- no issues there- this kid can put the puck in the net. The Wild got nice value late in the second with Minnesota high school sensation Mario Lucia- the heat is on. They got another local product in Nick Seeler and then grabbed the busiest high school goalie in the country in Steve Michalek, who is going to Harvard next season. Closing out with big checking pivot Tyler Graovac out of Ottawa makes it a pretty solid class overall.

Montreal Canadiens
Grade: B+
The Habs got nice value with a player they clearly wanted in Nathan Beaulieu, who surprisingly fell to them. They then lacked picks until the fourth round, grabbing intriguing defense prospect with size, skill out of the USHL in Josiah Didier, whose stock was on the rise in the second half of the season. Olivier Archambault is nothing to get excited about (one source cited character concerns with him as well), but Magnus Nygren is a skilled offensive-minded Swedish defenseman and overager who was at the top of Red Line's European draft eligibles list. After picking Darren Dietz out of Saskatoon in the fifth round, the Habs closed strong with two very good value picks in Czech winger Daniel Pribyl and U.S. prep defender Colin Sullivan.

Nashville Predators
Grade: B-
We love the Magnus Hellberg pick, even if he was a bit of a surprise at 39. He's huge and pretty close to competing for an NHL job. That said, not as sold on Miikka Salomaki's upside. Josh Shalla has great hands but can't skate. Garrett Noonan was a reach (in our view) in the fourth round, while Simon Karlsson, Chase Balisy and Brent Andrews on the whole are not enough to make this an exciting class. It's lacking in value and upside.

New Jersey Devils
Grade: B+
Getting Adam Larsson at fourth overall was a steal for the team that might have taken him first overall, which is where they were for much of the year until putting together a laudable late-season run. The Devils traded its second-rounder to Nashville a year ago for Jason Arnott (Hellberg) and forfeited its own third as part of the Kovalchuk signing fiasco, but picked up Dallas' third-rounder and used it on USHL scoring ace Blake Coleman. The Devs then got a value pick with Team USA sniper Reid Boucher, a steal at 99th overall after helping his team to the gold medal at the U-18s. The Devils got some solid value guys with Blake Pietila, Reece Scarlett and Patrick Daly.

New York Islanders
Grade: A
The Islanders landed a legitimate scoring force with character in Ryan Strome with the fifth overall pick. The, they added excellent value with raw but highly promising Scotty Mayfield early in the second. Not as high on Johan Sundstrom at 50th overall, but if he moves out of center (lack of creativity) he could be a horse of a wing and two-way guy. The Isles got more value with Andrey Pedan and Robbie Russo in the third and fourth rounds. Their Western scout got into the act with a pair of picks in the Dub: Red Deer's John Persson and Brenden Kichton of Spokane was a nice steal for them in the fifth. Mitchell Theoret was a nice way to finish out what looks like a quality and deep draft for the Isles.

New York Rangers
Grade: B+
The Rangers got a skilled centerman in J.T. Miller, but we're concerned with his up-and-down season. He pulled it together at the right team for Team USA in the U-18s, but his overall performance was uneven. Steven Fogarty is a raw but interesting playmaking center project who is quite a few years away. Mike St. Croix was a good value pick, but we've never been huge on him based on reports about a lack of work ethic. Shane McColgan is another value pick- once thought of as a potential first-rounder, but who dropped after a slow start. Small, but feisty and skilled- the question is- can he bring the offensive element with him at the NHL level? He's Brad Marchand-type, so it could happen for him. Rangers went tough late with nasty d-man Samuel Noreau and then added a big shutdown guy in Slovak Peter Ceresnak who underachieved in his draft season, but could play one day.

Ottawa Senators
Grade: A
Ottawa went wild with forwards in this draft class, which could get the sad-sack Sense back into contention in short order. Bryan Murray grabbed a gem with Swede Mika Zibanejad, but followed it up with two more promising players up front out of the OHL in Stefan "Tex" Noesen, a hard-nosed but productive forward out of Plymouth and Matt Puempel could be one of the most natural scoring wings available. They grabbed local 67's player Shane Prince with the Chris Kelly 2nd-rounder from Boston, then got mighty mite Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who had a tremendous playoff run with Gatineau. Fredrik Claesson was a bit of a head scratcher, but he has good wheels and could blossom as an offensive-minded guy when he gets a little more development. The rest of the picks didn't as much for us, but those first five are the types of players who could do big things one day.

Nugent-Hopkikns and Landeskog go 1-2

These two picks make perfect sense.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the top talent and if Edmonton had passed on him, the second-guessing would have been immense. Stud forward and high-end talent who deserved to be No.1 and will be a good fit for the Oil.

Kudos to Colorado for taking Gabriel Landeskog, whom we don't think gets enough credit for his skills. His physical talents, leadership/maturity are second to none. Hard to go wrong with Gabe- he will play next year and make an impact as a player who can perform any role for the rebuilding Avs.

Florida now up.

Monday rumor mill and draft strategies

It's hard to believe that the 2011 NHL Entry Draft is already upon us with the first round happening Friday night at 7:00 p.m. (EST) from the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.

It's been a long season, and we're approaching 500 posts here on the B2011DW blog. It's been a pleasure to bring you the information and insights on the 2011 draft (and even a small look ahead to 2012 and 2013 as well) so we're going to put the head down, find the hidden energy reserves, and finish out strong.

Much of the draft rumor talk this week revolves around speculation that Steve Tambellini and the Edmonton Oilers are entertaining moving back a few spots to give up the No. 1 choice. Now, while this thought could be dismissed out of hand given the popularity of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but Edmonton at least entertaining offers makes sense for them. This is the second consecutive year that the Oilers own the top pick, and while they will need a pretty sweet offer to move it, one team that could make sense for them to make a trade with is Florida. Dale Tallon has some pretty good currency to work with in terms of extra picks, prospects and even a roster player or two the Panthers could flip to Edmonton for the right to draft Nugent-Hopkins. The Oil would only be moving back two spots, giving them a shot at Adam Larsson or Jonathan Huberdeau, plus they would have extra assets to work with.

It all comes down to how much Tallon is willing to give up, but Florida could use the bounce they would get by selecting RNH a year after trading with the Bruins to send Nathan Horton to Boston as one of the key missing pieces to a Stanley Cup champion.

B2011DW talked to a source who said that Tambellini has quietly taken some calls about that No. 1 pick. A year ago, he was adamant about not moving it, and even tried to trade with Boston to get the first two selections. The philosophy has changed somewhat given Edmonton's need to be a better team now and not later. We can't confirm if the Oilers have talked specifically with Florida about that top selection, but if there is a deal to be made, it makes sense for them because moving back just a couple of spots keeps them in the running for a top forward in Huberdeau or even Gabriel Landeskog, or allows them to land their high-end defenseman in Larsson while adding other pieces to the cupboard.

We shall see whether the Oil stands pat at 1 or they flip the pick for more assets.

Another option for them is to try and package additional assets to try and move up from 19, where they currently own L.A.'s first pick, to the top-10 to try and land a second high-profile prospect.

As far as players go, Mika Zibanejad looks like a slam-dunk inside the top-8, which means that the Bruins will have a nice shot at any one of Ryan Murphy, Ryan Strome and maybe even Sean Couturier. Zibanejad exploded onto the scene after playing very well in Sweden's top pro league and impressing NHL teams with his winning attitude and personality. Where the B's once hoped to have a shot at him at ninth overall, that isn't happening. We don't think he'll get past Ottawa at six.

Also hearing from a good source and friend that the rumored Jeff Carter to Columbus from Philadelphia for eighth overall (and possibly a player) deal is done and that the Flyers will jump ahead of Boston in the draft order, with announcement pending sometime this week. If this is in fact true, then expect the Flyers to snap up Strome if he is on the board, which we would expect would mean that Murphy would probably be the guy to go to Boston at nine. Strome or Murphy- Ryan's Hope- either way, Boston wins. They get another Tyler Seguin-style high-end scorer to insure them against an early Marc Savard retirement, or they get a Phil Housley-type elite skills offensive-minded defender who becomes the best skater in the organization right from jump street.

With the Bruins having won the Stanley Cup, don't expect them to move up on Friday. They will likely hold onto the assets they have (9th, 40th, 81st picks in the first three rounds) and add to the organization rather than surrender ones at a premium to try and move up a few spots. The math does not lie: a nice player will drop to the B's at 9- there is no need to move forward unless the cost isn't going to hamstring them. The Bruins have a rare championship winner's opportunity to strengthen their organization with two non-playoff picks in the first two rounds.They'll take advantage of that.

It's all winding down now. Bruins fans aren't yet coming off their euphoria of a Stanley Cup victory, but the team is focused on having a good draft. They're having defenseman Nathan Beaulieu in town for a quick visit on his way to Minnesota. Their list is essentially done- it's decision time.

50 in 30: #1 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer Rebels (OHL)
6-0, 174
Born: April 12, 1993 in Burnaby, British Columbia
Shoots: Left

Scouting report:

Strengths: Outstanding skater with explosive burst, top-end speed, excellent lateral agility and superb edgework. Shifty, with quick feet and the ability to accelerate rapidly over short spaces. Elite stickhandler; can make any play at top speed or in traffic when there isn't much time or space. Soft touch on the puck for on-target passes. Can thread the needle through a maze of skates and sticks to hit the open man. Lightning release with a bullet shot that is accurate. Will pick corners at will. Hides his release point well and confounds goalies with his ability to get the puck on net from just about anywhere. Off-the-charts hockey sense- puck follows him around the ice. Always in the middle of the action and makes quick cuts to open up room for his linemates. The most creative player in the draft and a deadly scorer with the man advantage. Makes everyone around him better. Leads by example with his hustle and work ethic. Never quits on the play. Will initiate contact and not afraid to take the hit to make the play. Good character kid- wants to be a leader and has game-breaking ability to put his team on his shoulders at any given time.

Weaknesses:Slight frame and lacking in strength- isn't ever going to be all that big even when he matures, but with his high-end skills and hockey sense, won't be an issue. Production tilted more on the power play than while on 5-on-5- will be interesting to see if it is an ongoing trend with him.

Multimedia:

Another nice highlight montage from YanthaCanada on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (YanthaCanada)


NHL.com interview with Nugent-Hopkins (RedMaryKidd876)


Future Considerations on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

(Having trouble uploading combine video on Blogger lately- will try to fix the issue soon)

Style compares to: Matt Duchene

Draft prediction: The No.1 overall pick to Edmonton with a bullet. Elite skill set and hockey sense- can make any play on the 200 x 85 and often makes opponents look silly in the process. There isn't a whole lot to say about this kid that hasn't been said already- he's the top player in this draft with the highest offensive ceiling and is a perfect fit for the Edmonton Oilers, who are in the catbird's seat.

Projection: Top-line center who could turn Taylor Hall into a 50-goal scorer in a few years. Nugent-Hopkins has all the makings of a big league scoring star, but may need at least one more year of junior to better mature and grow. His intent is to play in the NHL right away and he's been gaining weight, so it will be interesting to see how he looks at his first NHL training camp in the fall.

Background: Second of Roger Hopkins and Debbie Nugent's two sons, his brother, Adam, five years his senior. Received 2008 BC Hockey Player of the Year award. Was the first overall selection in the 2008 WHL Bantam Draft by Red Deer. Scored 65 points as a rookie, but exploded in his second season finish fourth in the WHL in scoring with 31 goals, 75 assists for 106 points. Led WHL in helpers. Scored gold medal-winning goal at Ivan Hlinka/Eight Nations tourney in Slovakia in Canada's 1-0 win over Team USA. Favorite NHL teams: Pittsburgh Penguins and Ottawa Senators Favorite player: Sidney Crosby

If Nugent-Hopkins had his own soundtrack it would be: "Savior"- Rise Against

"Not Falling"- Mudvayne

Quotable:

"Controls the flow and pace of the game and knows where everyone is on the ice at all times."- Red Line Report, 2011 Draft Guide (#1 player w/ Most Natural Hockey Sense)

“(Nugent-Hopkins) has very good puck-handling capabilities. His on-ice awareness is very good. He's one of those guys that knows where everyone is and where they should be and where the puck should go . . . He can dish both right or left, either on his backhand or forehand with that kind of vision. But not just the vision, but the fact he can lay that puck between the skate boot and the skate blade -- that's hard to find.”- Central Scouting's Blair McDonald to NHL.com (full profile here)

“A couple of people high up -- and not naming names -- said Hopkins has the best vision since No. 99 (Wayne Gretzky). That's the highest compliment you can get. But the other thing is the way he competes. He never takes a night off and he works as hard in his own end as he does in the offensive zone and that takes a special player with a special set of skills to do that.”- Central Scouting's Peter Sullivan to NHL.com

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in his own words:

“It’s been good. It’s been fun. I just go in and try to have fun with it, just enjoy it. I don’t like to be cocky and I don’t like when hockey players get cocky and stuff. Some hockey players in the WHL are pretty cocky. I don’t like cocky people in general. I don’t like when people are very arrogant.”- RNH to Edmonton Journal (for full story, see link below in The Scoop)

"When I first started skating I was two and then I joined hockey when I was four. When I was younger I grew up in Vancouver, and I eventually moved to Burnaby. I used to go public skate a lot with my older brother who played hockey. My dad wanted to get me into hockey but he was always a baseball guy, so he was kind of surprised that I took a liking to hockey more than baseball. Ever since I was four I started playing hockey, and have loved it ever since."- Nugent-Hopkins on how he got his start in hockey to NHL.com (more quotes here)

The Scoop:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins profile by David Staples, Edmonton Journal

Nugent-Hopkins ascends to top of draft rankings by Mike G. Morreale, NHL.com

Combine whispers: "A wild ride in store..."

Had a productive day at the NHL Draft Combine in Toronto.

Spent the afternoon at the hotel, where players were coming in and out all day, while the NHL scouting staffs made appearances at various times as well.

Had a chance to sit down and do extensive interviews with BU defenseman Adam Clendening and Ottawa winger Shane Prince, two of the best prospects coming out of New York.

B2011DW was also a part of the media scrum that engaged the top prospects made available to us by the NHL today: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Gabriel Landeskog, Sean Couturier, Adam Larsson, Dougie Hamilton and Jonathan Huberdeau. More on them later.

Also ran into a few NHL sources who didn't have a great deal of time to chat, but one longtime veteran scout had this to say: "We've figured out a lot of the top players in this draft, but I'm just going to say that after about three, things are going to break wide open and things will get crazy. I think opinions are really divided on where these guys are going to go in terms of order. I would say that a wild ride is in store- it should be fun."

Feedback from a lot of the players themselves were that the line of questioning did not seem to be all that intense nor were there some of the more bizarre questions asked in the past. Most talked about how each team approached the interview process differently, but none claimed that they were grilled particularly hard by the teams themselves. Of course, this could be a product of the players being high character guys enough that grilling was not warranted.

We even had a chance to stop Ryan Strome in between interviews, armed with a bag of Subway, trying to knock out his last two interviews before he turns his attention to the physical testing tomorrow afternoon. He's one of the lucky ones- he lives just a few minutes down the road in the neaby Toronto suburb of Mississauga, so he's not living in the hotel for the week. He's a sharp kid with excellent people skills, to say nothing of his impressive hockey talent. He has future team leader and fan favorite written all over him.

Even lower-round guys who weren't invited to the combine like OJHL and Michigan recruit Brennan Serville, were on hand to conduct scheduled team meetings. The guys from Ontario can make the trek to meet with clubs and we can see that opportunity being used to full advantage.

Much more to come, but we have to wrap up the #19 prospect and get it in the books before we do anything further. We did see Ty Rattie at the hotel today, but he was sharply dressed and on the way to an interview; he did not have time to stop and chat. We'll get him tomorrow after his testing is complete.

NHL scout weighs in on key 2011 draft prospects

We had an interesting exchange the other day with an NHL scout who gave us an unvarnished look at some of the top players available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.

This particular scout is a veteran and has been around a long time and knows what he's talking about when it comes to evaluating prospects. His experience has always made him a valuable resource, and he was kind enough to share some detailed views.

What immediately springs to mind with some of these observations is how they fly in the face of the some of the established reports on players that have become a given over the course of the 2010-11 hockey season. While some may look at these notes and disagree, remember that it's an opinion backed up by multiple viewings and years of doing this.

We can't always be right about every player all the time. However, it does provide very good food for thought and a reminder that this draft year, more than others in recent memory, could get pretty interesting on June 24, with certain players not thought of as high picks jumping up to come off the board early, while other taken-for-granted favorites slipping a bit. Or, it could play out exactly as many of us believe. (Yeah, right)

Whether you agree with the assessments or not, this is typical of the kind of debate and discussion you might hear in an NHL war room if you were a fly on the wall as they deliberate their final rankings.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL) -" I like him plenty, but I have nagging doubts. Why do I feel like I'm watching the next Jamie Lundmark? That lackluster track record of Western League dynamic offensive whiz kids is always in the back of my mind. He seems to me like a guy with a high floor, but I would have said that about Gilbert Brule also."

Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara (OHL) - "Why is this guy not getting any mention as a possibility in the top 3 or 4 picks overall? I think he's a Tyler Myers or Alex Pietrangelo. I can't find anything about his game that will keep him from being a good top pairing d-man."

Sven Bartschi, LW Portland (WHL) - "A greater than the sum of his parts player - the opposite of the sort of guy scouts usually love (those 6-5, raw, toolsy guys who we let the imagination run wild on). There's nothing to imagine with on this guy - he's smallish, only an average skater, far from dynamic, but all he does is get on the scoresheet and help his team win games. His improvement on the defensive and penalty killing side really opened my eyes, he could end up being a pretty complete guy even if he only ends up being a 10-15 goal guy in the NHL."

Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John (QMJHL)- "Was so underrated so long by so many people that he's now become overrated. I love everything about him but the hockey sense, and that's a big concern."

(EDIT- Going to reincorporate some of the quotes on other players in the top-30 list coming soon)

Jonathan Huberdeau: J-Money doing strong Taylor Hall impression

One year ago, Windsor's Taylor Hall used the OHL playoffs and 2010 MasterCard Memorial Cup tournament in Brandon as a springboard for establishing himself as his draft class's No. 1 pick.

In 2011, that honor has gone to Saint John Sea Dogs left winger Jonathan Huberdeau- we've calling him "J-Money" these days.

Here's an NHL-produced video on him, but even it doesn't do much justice to him.

Although he's a member of a deep and "stacked" team, so was Hall, right? Players on great teams still have to produce and make the plays, and Huberdeau has done that.

"It's not just the production, but the timeliness and importance of his goals and points," said an NHL scout recently. "He was a big-time scorer for them in the regular season and he's carried it over."

He scored an overtime goal to win one of his team's games against Victoriaville in the second round (winning the series 4 games to 1), and then in the deciding game of the President's Cup series against Gatineau, he tied it with less than 30 seconds remaining in regulation with as calm and poised a play you will ever see. His team then went on to win the QMJHL championship in double-OT on a goal by Alexandre Beauregard.

In Game 2 of the Memorial Cup against Owen Sound, Huberdeau capped a come-from-behind victory with an overtime strike against Jordan Binnington, another 2011 draft candidate. It may not have been the prettiest goal, but J-Money was left alone in front of the Owen Sound net and was able to beat the netminder, who has been quite good in his own right since coming into Game 6 of the OHL championship series. It wasn't a picture perfect goal as it took him an extra second to get control of the puck after Stanislav Galiev's pass slid off his stick blade. However, he buried it to send his team to the final.

Here's the call in French on RDS and it's a beaut. (Or is it a but? It's both!) Thanks to Jérôme Bérubé for the hookup.

Huberdeau came into the season as a solid second-rounder, but now he might go as high as second overall. It probably won't happen, as we still see Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Gabriel Landeskog as better players overall, but you never know. Those guys haven't been playing hockey since late March/earl April.

J-Money is still writing his scouting report and staying fresh in teams' minds. There's a lot to be said about that extra spring bounce that not every player has a chance to benefit from.

Just ask Hall.

NHL Draft Video link: The Ecstasy of Gold

Our friend Jerome B. over at NHL Draft Video blog has a sweet highlight film of the 2011 NHL Entry Draft's top players posted on You Tube.

You can watch the video here.

He does a nice job using Metallica's version of the Ennio Morricone classic track from "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly" soundtrack. It's the perfect music to set to some of these majestic hockey plays.

Nice job, Jerome and merci for all the great videos you've posted on your blog all season.

Nation Radio Archive: BruinsDraftWatch featured guest, April 16

Last weekend we went on Allan Mitchell's Nation Radio show, which is broadcast on Team 1260 in Edmonton every Saturday.

Click on this link to visit the Nation Radio website to hear to interview.

In it, we're talking Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier, Jonathan Huberdeau, Dougie Hamilton and some of the Team USA guys at the Under-18s like Rocco Grimaldi Connor Murphy and John Gibson. We close out the segment with talk about one of our favorite sleepers- Belmont Hill winger Jimmy Vesey and the intriguing Moose Jaw gigantor D Joel Edmundson.

As always, it's a pleasure to go on with Allan, whose Lowetide blog is one of the most respected and popular hockey blogs out there.

Central releases final rankings: Nugent-Hopkins headlines class; top-10 analysis

To nobody's surprise, Red Deer Rebels center Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sits atop the NHL Central Scouting Service's final rankings for North American skaters for the 2010-11 season. The list was released today, and featured some interesting movement, as RNH moved up to the top spot from his mid-term position of No. 3 after a tremendous second half that saw him hit the century mark for points (31 goals, 106 points) to tie Ryan Strome for most points by a CHL draft eligible this season.

You can see the entire list here, but this post will attempt to shed some light on some key areas until we can track down some NHL sources to weigh in with their opinions.

RNH is a dynamic, game-breaking talent who belongs at the top of the list. Some have made interesting observations about his production, both predominant success with the man advantage and in terms of him requiring room to operate. In all honesty, the NHL and independent scouts we've spoken to have raved about his pure skill and ability to get it done, so the only real concern with him right now is putting some size on his very slender frame. Even with some of the doubts, RNH has still managed to put the puck in the net and set up myriad other goals, so as far as we're concerned, he deserves his spot atop the NA skaters list.

His ascendance displaces Kitchener Rangers captain Gabriel Landeskog, whose club was knocked out of the first round of the OHL playoffs in seven games by the upstart Plymouth Whalers. Landeskog is No. 2 after a 36-goal, 66-point season hampered by a high ankle sprain suffered in December, which kept him out of the World Jr. Championship in Buffalo and forced him to miss about six weeks.

Jonathan Huberdeau moved up one spot from his fourth spot at mid-term, and the Saint John Sea Dogs standout with his 105 points is primed to land inside the top-five or just outside if he drops slightly.

The first two defensemen in North America appear at 4th and 5th- Dougie Hamilton, who has been steadily tracked all year on this blog, and Nathan Beaulieu, another member of the juggernaut Saint John team that steamrolled the QMJHL this season. Hamilton is 6-4 and skates very well, though some scouts question his vision and hockey sense (yet he still managed to score 58 points this season). Beaulieu isn't as big as Hamilton, but has excellent skating and puck moving ability, some nastiness and might be a little more rounded at this stage than Hamilton is.

Sean Couturier fell down to No. 6 on the list, which is consistent with some of the buzz we've been hearing on him. However, it's hard to imagine he'll fall very far come draft day. He's simply too big, talented and promising to take a major nosedive as other highly-touted prospects have done in the past. He's not the best skater, but let's be frank: it's not a major flaw and is correctible with some work on mechanics. He has the size and power to be a legitimate power forward and top-six player for years in this league, and we don't put a lot of stock in his WJC performance because of the role he was given. Yes, he could have produced more because the opportunities were there for him, and that was noted back in January when we published our notes. But at the same time, the fact that he generated those scoring chances counts as well. He battled mononucleosis which has a debilitating effect on any athlete, so in our view Couturier is not going to have the kind of fall the rumor mongers will predict for him. If he gets out of the top-five, then whoever snags him shortly thereafter is getting some nice value.

We're surprised to see Swiss winger Sven Bartschi ahead of Ryan Strome on the list at 7 and 8, however. Strome is someone who produced from wire to wire and lost the OHL scoring championship on the very last day of the season when Tyler Toffoli and Jason Akeson had big days. Bartschi is skilled, but he's on the small side and we don't like his perimeter game. Strome can do a little bit of everything and has some real high-end hockey sense and a nonstop motor. We're highly doubtful that Bartschi will get picked ahead of Strome on June 24, though we do feel Bartschi is a solid first-round player.

Two intriguing defensemen are 9th and 10th on the list: Ryan Murphy, whom we profiled in detail here last week, and the player this blog has more posts on than anyone else, needs no major introduction if you're a long-time reader of this space. His lack of size and functional strength continue to be the only drawbacks to this player, who tore it up in the first-round loss to Plymouth and convinced several NHL scouts we've talked to, among others in the independent community, that he deserves to be closer to 5 than 10 on draft day. We believe that the Bruins have a genuine interest in Murphy among other players, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Duncan Siemens is more the thunder to Murphy's lightning. If Murphy is the small, dynamic guy, Siemens brings the lumber with his mobility and tough edge. A very good skater lacking only minor issues (and even that is debateable), Siemens may not have Murphy's game-breaking element, but he's big, fiery and has some upside. A player who can do it all including fight, he was actually seen on camera giving Murphy fighting tips when the two played together on Team Cherry during the CHL Top Prospects Game. Siemens dropped the gloves with David Musil in that game and is one of those guys who at first doesn't seem like much, but really grows on you in time. At nearly 6-3, and 192 pounds, he has a lot of room to grow, and scouts love his zeal and passion for the game.

As you can see from the top-10, this is a pretty solid class. We'll have much more later this evening, when we break down more of the North American skaters, but we wanted to get this post up and to you for quick digestion before we take on the bulk of the list in the next post.

Waffle Watch complete: Bruins are picking 9th

The Minnesota Wild pulled it together, winning their last two games of the season to breeze by the Toronto Maple Leafs in the standings, dropping Toronto's draft pick position to ninth overall.

Bruins fans should consider it a moral victory, as the "best" non-playoff club, ie- Carolina and Dallas, who blew win and in scenarios on back-to-back nights and will pick 12th and 14th in a draft that many scouts are saying is about 15-16 deep (Calgary picks 13th with 94 points- three ahead of the 'Canes). Let's face it- 13 and 14 isn't bad, but getting inside that top-10 is bigger for Boston for several reasons.

First, they're going to get a player with a lot of promise there. One NHL scout told me that as far as he's concerned, the kid who possibly goes 11th overall has as much potential to be one of the top three players in this draft as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson or Gabriel Landeskog do- your "consensus" three highest-ranked guys. Will they be the three who hear their names called 1-3 in St. Paul? There is still much time left to decide that.

You have to wonder about the guys who will still be playing deep into the CHL playoffs, such as Jonathan Huberdeau or Sean Couturier and possibly Ryan Strome and Dougie Hamilton or Sven Bartschi and Duncan Siemens out west? What will their extended run bring them in terms of rising on draft day? If you count up those names, that leaves you with nine solid draft options right there. Here are three more: One small but dynamic defender with elite skills in Ryan Murphy, and a pair of power forward bookends Brandon Saad, and Tyler Biggs.

Oh, and there's 2010 CHL Rookie of the Year and two-time 30+ goal guy for Peterborough Matt Puempel. That makes 13. Three players with some size, jam and upside in Mika Zibanejad,Jamie Oleksiak and Nathan Beaulieu round out 16. Big horse with legitimate scoring potential Mark McNeill is 17, but could go inside the top-10 if he has a strong Under-18 tourney next week.

And so, you get the picture. This is not a weak draft. Furthermore, that just happens to be this blog's top-17. Who knows if it actually reflects the guys who will go 1-17 in June? Our best guess is- probably not.

Which leads us to our second point about the value of picking ninth overall: Being inside the top-10 makes a potential move up the board by Boston feasible. Usually, teams sitting at 5 or 6 don't want to leave the top-10 altogether, though it normally comes down to just how many like-ranked players they have on their board. The more there are, the more willing a team is to move down and still get a player they want. If their heart is set on 1 or 2 guys, a team picking fifth probably is not going to move down to nine unless the other GM does some real pot-sweetening.

OK- so it's not second overall. As Mick Jagger once crooned, You can't always get what you want. The ninth pick in 2011, after getting the second and 32nd selections in 2010, is not a bad way to go at all.

Give the Bruins and GM Peter Chiarelli credit, (though we didn't like the Chris Kelly deal when it was made and still don't). The Bruins are picking third from the end in every round (for now- those final four seedings actually go to Stanley Cup champion, finalist, and the two semi-finals teams, and is not based on regular season record as in the old days) but managed to move up 19 slots in the 1st round with Toronto's pick, 18 slots in the second with Minnesota's and 8 slots in the third with Phoenix. Even though the Bruins don't have their own pick in any of rounds 1-3, they effectively moved up the board to non-playoff positions for the first two and upgraded modestly with the third.

That will position the Bruins to add some more legitimate building blocks to the organization just one year after adding some impressive parts in Tyler Seguin, Jared Knight and Ryan Spooner in rounds 1 and 2.

Now, it's up to the scouts to finish their due diligence.

With that, here is the final draft pick update of the season 2010-11 season:

2011 Boston Bruins draft picks 6 total picks plus one pending conditional 7th from FLA)

1st Round
9th overall- Toronto (85 points; 37-34-11)- Completes Phil Kessel trade.

2nd Round
40th overall- Minnesota (86 points;39-35-8)- Completes Chuck Kobasew trade.

3rd Round
80th overall- Phoenix (99 points; 43-26-13) - Completes Derek Morris trade.

4th Round
118th* overall- Boston (103 points; 46-25-11)
*Final four pick positions determined by Stanley Cup winner, finalist, and semi-finalists

5th Round
148th overall- Boston

6th Round
178th overall- Boston

7th Round
183rd overall- Florida (conditional 72 pts; 30-40-12)- Jeff LoVecchio, Jordan Knackstedt to Panthers for Sean Zimmerman, cond. 7th


Traded Picks- 2011 (4 Boston 2011 picks traded in Rounds 1-3, 7)

1st Round
28th overall- Boston pick Traded to Toronto for Tomas Kaberle

2nd Round
58th overall- Boston pick Traded to Ottawa for Chris Kelly

3rd round
88th overall Boston pick traded to Florida; Completes Nathan Horton deal

7th round
208th overall Boston pick traded to Chicago (Zach Trotman)


Boston Bruins 2012 Draft Picks

1st
2nd- Traded to TOR; conditional: If BOS makes Stanley Cup final or Kaberle re-signed, pick goes to Leafs
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th

WHL 2010-11 regular season roundup

The blog is back with the second mega-post in the regular season roundup and recap. Instead of just sticking with the CHL, we're going to expand it to the NCAA, Europe and U.S./Canada juniors and U.S. high schools in separate posts over the next week. Why? Because we're gluttons for punishment and you guys deserve as much info. as you can absorb!

With the playoffs kicking off here in North America, it's time to look at the 2011 NHL Draft's bigger names and try to project where they could go come Minnesota in June.

Here is the post we did in August tracking the bigger draft names in the WHL coming into it. As is the case every year, certain guys expected to have successful years didn't, while others who were down the list or not tracking at all elevated themselves to a high degree. Mark McNeill, anyone?

So, without further ado- here's the WHL regular season roundup based on what our sources are telling us. There are sure to be disagreements, but at the end of the day, NHL lists vary a great deal from team to team, so the more debate the better. This is just one perspective.

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer- Has the 'Nuge played himself into the top spot when the 2011 draft opens up on June 24? We think he has. His goal scoring was down into January even though his outstanding assist totals were piling up. As if perhaps hearing the critics, RNH threw caution to the wind and just started firing the puck and finding the back of the net with alarming regularity. Nugent-Hopkins finished the season with 31 goals and 106 points in 75 games with the Rebels, precisely the kind of production expected of him when the season began. Although some will take issue with his power play production versus even strength, this guy is an elite skater with the elite hands, passing skills and shot that should see him go in the top-2 selections at the very least. Edmonton, assuming they maintain the top pick, has seen plenty of this dynamic young skater, and although we went on Nation Radio a few weeks ago and predicted Adam Larsson to the Oil, we've reversed our position and see RNH being the guy for them if they have the top pick. We've talked to several NHL scouts who are all saying the same thing: RNH has taken it to an entirely different level since February and makes perfect sense as the first overall pick for Edmonton. He simply has too much talent and upside not to go there, especially given the kind of awareness Oilers fans have of RNH this season. The thought of him with Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson or Jordan Eberle has to create visions of sugarplum pucks dancing in Steve Tambellini's head. His average size and slender frame is no major cause for concern- at the end of the day, he's a legit game-breaker and will adapt well to the NHL.
Stock Watch: Blue-chip; like the aforementioned Jonathan Huberdeau, an extended playoff run for Nugent-Hopkins and the Rebels will put him right with Taylor Hall in terms of the player who is freshest in the minds of scouts leading into the draft. Even if the Rebels come up short and don't advance far in the WHL postseason, we suspect that RNH has done enough already to sell himself to the teams picking 1st or 2nd.

Here's a terrific video produced by Aaron Vickers and the guys at Future Considerations Hockey on RNH. It will tell you everything you need to know about him.

2. Duncan Siemens, D Saskatoon- Admittedly, we haven't been as high on Siemens at this blog space as others, but it's time to face facts, and that is this: with his size, skating ability and pure toughness plus upside, it's hard to imagine any other player in the WHL being drafted ahead of the Blades d-man once RNH is off the board.He has a powerful stride and good lateral agility. The first-step quickness is still a work in progress, but it isn't a shortcoming. He's a tall and lean 6-3, 195-pounds, but when he fills out more, he'll be even more of a physical beast than he is now. His gap control is very good, and he plays a sound positional game. The points weren't really there at the beginning, but he came on better in the second half, and he finished with five goals, 38 assists for 43 points and 121 penalty minutes as one hard-nosed, tough mother. Another thing to like about him- he's a Sep. '93 birthdate, making him one of the youngest players in the class, and given his poise and edge, that's really saying something. The offensive upside is a question that is going to go on in NHL war rooms of teams that have a top-10 selection in this draft, but if Dylan McIlrath can go 10th overall, then Siemens, a very similar kind of player in terms of style and substance, but one who has more skill, could very well do the same or better. B2011DW is late to the party, but based on what we saw in the CHL Top Prospects Game and the fact that all we've heard about Siemens all season long speaks to a level of consistency that is laudable, we think he's a solid No. 2 in the WHL behind RNH. We're not sure we would take someone like Siemens at 7 or 8, but if he were to go that high, it would not surprise.
Stock watch: Up; playoff hockey is made for a guy like Siemens, so he should elevate his standing even more. Production could be the icing on the cake that pushes him inside the top-10, but even if he doesn't go that high, we can't envision a scenario in which he drops past 15. He could end up being a solid,middle-pairing guy in the NHL, but his potential to be more plus toughness quotient means that he'll go higher than lower in our opinion.


Here's a video produced by the Saskatoon Blades on their 3rd overall pick in the 2008 WHL Bantam Draft. It's a little dated, but you can see where the hype is coming from.

3. Mark McNeill, C Prince Albert- How do you spell stud? No player in the WHL has done more to help himself for the draft this season than the big, skilled and tough Raiders pivot who finished second on his team in scoring. His 32 goals and 81 points in 70 games this season only tell part of the story. He hit a growth spurt over the last year or so, growing to about 6-2 and 210 pounds, an already physically mature and smart player who plays a complete two-way game. He can score, hit and fight, though opponents figured out pretty quickly that McNeill was not a guy they wanted to provoke, so he hasn't had a ton of work in the fisticuffs department. His real value is in hockey sense and soft hands. He's extremely strong on his skates and shields/protects the puck well when he has possession in the o-zone. He's not a big hitter, but with his size and penchant for playing with an edge, we think it's in him to be that nasty, in-your-face guy if the right team can coax it out of him. He plays with a lot of energy and hustle; not a great skater, but he does have a fluid, powerful stride. With his natural strong core, he's able to generate a lot of power and can be a load for opponents to contain.
Stock watch: Holding steady; any team picking late in the 1st round hoping to steal him in the bottom 5-10 picks has missed the boat with this guy. With his all-around size, skill and edge, he's a prime candidate to come off the board inside the top-20. The big question then becomes, where will he go? We know of several NHL teams that love him, so if there's a candidate you see someone move up to get, it could be McNeill.

This fight video from hockeyfightsplus will give you an indication of why NHL teams are salivating over him given his skill package to go with the toughness.

4. Ty Rattie, RW Portland- The Alberta scoring machine was at one time on a real tear and was in the top-three for scoring in the WHL before tailing off, but there is still a great deal to like about this creative, dynamic playmaking winger. With 28 goals and 51 assists for 79 points in 67 games this season, he more than doubled his 37-point output as a rookie and came a long way with his overall game. One NHL scout told us back in December that he was really taken aback at how much more refined Rattie's game was this season after he'd been more of a hotdog as a rookie, doing a lot of flashy, individual things that worked for him in bantam, but didn't as a rookie in the WHL. Linemate Sven Bartschi raved to B2011DW at the WJC about Rattie's playmaking skills and overal ability (more on Bartschi later) to generate offense for the stacked Winterhawks. Rattie also plays with a bit of an edge and does his share of agitating. It's a shame that he was unable to keep up his torrid scoring pace, but he certainly showed scouts why he was one of the most accomplished scorers to ever come out of Alberta bantams and bigger point production totals are in store. His defense is still improving, but he showed a willingness to hustle and backcheck, and has come a considerable distance in a short amount of time. He doesn't have a lot of size at just 6-0, and 165, but with his slippery elusiveness plus high-end puck skills, vision and tenacity the size thing is not a big detriment given what he brings to the table.
Stock watch: He's probably getting lost in the shuffle a bit with the way RNH and Siemens have come on since the Top Prospects Game, but if Portland can go far in the postseason, Rattie could remind scouts why he was a big-time point-getter at the start of the year. We really like this kid.

Open Ice has a nice profile on Rattie done at the Top Prospects Game here.

5. Sven Bartschi, LW Portland- He may be only about 5-10 and 180 pounds, but this Swiss sniper can really put the puck in the net! The Swiss rookie finished just second in team scoring behind No. 4 overall pick in last year's draft Ryan Johansen (Columbus), potting 34 goals and 85 points in 66 games for the offensive powerhouse Winterhawks. An excellent skater who can explode to top speed in just a few strides, he has a heavy, accurate shot that he loves to rip coming off the rush. Very good puck skills as Bartschi showed at the CHL Top Prospects Game. He can also put it just about anywhere. If there's a knock on him it's that he does have a tendency to play a perimeter game and stay away from the dirty areas of the ice. At this level, he can get away with it because he's so adept at ripping the puck or setting up teammates in prime scoring position. As he moves up into the pros, he'll have a harder time beating goalies from the outside, so we'd like to see him show more of a willingness to go into traffic and take the puck to the net. That said, he's a solid kid who is passionate and plays with a lot of natural exuberance. He has a big smile on his face most of the time, and his attitude reminds us a lot of his countryman and teammate Nino Niederreiter in that regard. When it comes to Swiss players who come to North America to compete in their draft year, it says a lot about their commitment and desire to be NHL players. Bartschi is a solid 1st-round option, but where he goes is anyone's guess. It will take a certain team liking him more than others to go inside the top-15, but he won't slip out of the top-30...the skill and production is simply too alluring.
Stock watch: Up; he was consistent and productive the entire season. If he can kick it up a notch in the playoffs, he'll likely be picked before linemate Rattie.

Here's a light little video produced by a Country music station in Portland, but you get a nice glimpse of who he is off the ice.

Bonus video showing Rattie and Bartschi both in a shootout.

6. David Musil, D Vancouver- We missed Musil the first time we did this, but caught ourselves. Whew! At 6-3, 195, the son of former NHL defenseman (and current Edmonton Oilers scout) Frantisek Musil and Andrea Holikova-Musil (Bobby Holik's sister) has some of the best bloodlines in this draft class. He's a good skater for a player of his size and has all the physical tools and attributes a team looks for, yet his stock has dropped this season after being considered a potential preseason top-5 for 2011. Why? According to one NHL scout, he has the talent, but just doesn't seem to play withe the kind of intensity, passion or sense of urgency you look for. "He has the look of a guy who things have come pretty easy to him most of his life and maybe they have," the scout said. "But, he makes some questionable decisions and just hasn't taken control of games like the player we saw last year and before. He's capable of more, but I just haven't seen it from him enough." Musil has a big, booming shot that hurts, but his windup is excessive and release extended, allowing players to clog shooting lanes or rush him altogether. His hockey sense is just OK- he doesn't seem to sense the openings and exploit them and one wonders how well he sees the ice or reads the play. Defensively, he's solid- he uses his mobility and size to leverage guys away from the net and keep forwards to the outside. He's also getting very good coaching there in Vancouver under Don Hay, so he's a good player overall who's a bit of a disappointment more because the big expectations weren't met than anything else. Musil is probably going to play in the NHL because he's as good a physical specimen and athlete that you can find, but if you're looking for a projectable No. 1 or No. 2, this kid may be more of a gamble than teams are willing to take with a high pick. He finished the year with 6 goals and 25 points in 62 games and missed time including the WJC (where he would have played for the Czech Republic) with injury.

Here's a report from the Vancouver Giants on him. Spitting image of his old man when Papa Frank was playing for the North Stars.

7. Mike St. Croix, C Edmonton- Like McNeill, St. Croix is to be commended for picking up his game and making a statement to scouts as the season went on. Coming into it, the season, the Winnipeg native had high offensive expectations given the flashes he showed as a rookie with the Oil Kings last year. He got off to a slow start, and compounded with some indifferent defensive play, was headed down in some NHL teams' eyes until he turned things around at mid-season and finished the year strong. A very good skater who can dangle with the best of them, he's got a lightning release and just seems to have that sixth sense around the net when it comes to scoring goals or setting them up. He tallied 27 markers and 75 points in 68 games, finishing just three points off the scoring lead to Dylan Wruck. His willingness to get his nose dirty and play more responsible in all zones is precisely why his stock is up these days. Will it be enough to get him into the first round? That remains to be seen, but even if he doesn't crack the Friday night lineup, he won't be around long on Saturday, as he has some of the best natural upside of any in this class. His average size (5-11, 165) hurts him- he needs to get a lot stronger, but that should come in time.

Here's a lengthy radio interview and video with St. Croix from Athlete's Angle. Gotta love the "playoffs playoffs?" Jim Mora soundbite in there- never gets old.

8. Joe Morrow, D Portland- Another guy who may have been flying under the radar when the season began, no longer. NHL teams are not going to steal this guy, who has the look of developing into a solid No. 2 at the NHL level one day. A fine skater who sees the ice extremely well and loves to rush the puck. Morrow is a very good passer and has a point cannon that he gets off quickly. Sometimes, he is too much in love with his shot, says one NHL scout, who wanted to see him switch things up a bit and not go for the big slapper all the time, but admitted he was nitpicking the rangy defender with size's (6-1, 200) game. Morrow's defense and positioning are not as strong as the offensive element to his game, but NHL teams will covet that guy who can move the puck effectively, knowing that is a much tougher element to find. They can always pair a player like that with a stronger defensive partner, but legitimate PMD's are at a premium these days, so don't expect Morrow to last that long beyond the 1st round if he even slips out of the top-30. He's got an edge to him as well, but doesn't have much ability as a fighter- his real value is in his skill game.

Morrow is on a radio show here in this video, so you can see him in an interview setting.


9. Colin Jacobs, C Seattle- On talent alone, this 6-2, 195-pounder from Texas probably belongs here, but some of the scouts we've talked to aren't sold on his upside at the NHL level. The old scouting kiss of death- "looks like a player but don't know if he will be one" is something we've heard several times with Jacobs. That said, he can skate well, has some stickhandling ability and definitely likes to use his big frame to bang bodies. He cut down on his penalty minutes this season by playing a more clean, disciplined style which is good news for him and the Thunderbirds. His production was a disappointment, however- 22 goals and 44 points in 68 games. More was expected of this kid, who was seen as a solid early second-rounder prior to the start of the year. Where will he end up in June? Probably in the second round somewhere, but he could drop toward the bottom 10 and be closer to 60 or might be an early third-rounder. His development time in Texas/lack of elite competition early has caused some scouts to question his awareness and ability to process quickly, but he does have a solid work ethic and could develop a better defensive positional game, whether the natural sense is there or not.

You can get a little bit of an appreciation for what Jacobs can do at the junior level with this vid from NHLDraftVideo. Goes hard to the net and outworks defenders to put it in, but what you see is pretty much what you get.

10. Myles Bell, D Regina- Admittedly, B2011DW was a fan of Bell's game early in the season, but his production really tailed off as the Pats' season went south. He's an intriguing player who can move well enough and likes to carry the puck into the offensive zone. But, Bell is not a speed burner, which can lead to his being caught up ice. He also doesn't have a lot of height, even though he is a stout 210 pounds and built more like a bowling ball at 6-feet. This very good puckhandler isn't afraid to take chances and is dangerous on the power play. He's got some fight in him, too, which is always a bonus for NHL clubs. The problem starts with his defensive play, as multiple scouts have dinged him for an indifference and even more damning, at times clueless approach that takes him out of position and leads to goals against. He's one of these guys who looks a lot like a specialist- you can have him out there in certain situations and he'll move the puck well and make a good power play QB, but whether he can take a regular NHL is in doubt. Players like that, especially because he lacks ideal size, are becoming less and less valuable as NHL clubs are looking to maximize bang for the buck. So, if Bell slips a little more than anticipated, don't be surprised. There is some upside with his offensive game, but his overall play leaves a good bit to be desired, apparently.

Here's a video of Bell doing what he does best- going end-to-end with the puck Even here, you can see the lack of speed, but he's one of those guys who compensates with his offensive sense, ability to see holes open and handle the puck to get there.

11. Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat- We admittedly have a bit of a mancrush on Kessy, who is drawing comparisons to Milan Lucic according to the latest issue of Red Line Report. He doesn't get much of an opportunity to play an offensive role for the Tigers given their high-octane attack, but he's quietly scored some nice goals and certainly brings that legitimate toughness power forwards need to be able to change the flow of a game with a big hit, a fight and even a goal. Kessy is a decent skater, but needs to improve his lateral movement and get a little stronger on his skates. The fact that he's 6-2, but only about 175 has a lot to do with this- as he fills out and gains upper and lower body strength, he'll be better as he drives the net and a tougher customer when the gloves come off. He's also a pretty good shooter and puckhandler; not great, but he can make things happen in close. He's under the radar in terms of not being much of a draft name, but he's in the top-10 because he's got that developmental promise that Lucic turned into a household name. Don't be surprised to see Kessy come off the board much earlier than anticipated given his Central Scouting ranking and where other services have him. Red Line was the only service to peg Lucic as a potential top-50 pick, and they're on the Kessy bandwagon, so why not have him here? We've also heard from at least two NHL scouts who really like him as well and see the same kind of upside- Kessy fought so well last year that he earned himself some space and respect this year. That's saying something.

Here's just one of many fight videos you can access on Kessy over at YouTube. He's a lot like the old Primus song "Jerry Was A Racecar Driver" in that he may not win all of them, but he never gets manhandled or destroyed. A lot of pure toughness with this guy.

12. Adam Lowry, LW Swift Current- At 6-4, the son of former NHLer Dave Lowry has very nice size for the big league, although he has a lot of growing/filling out to do. He's still quite gangly and needs to improve his stride and overall speed and lateral quickness, but Lowry has very good hockey sense and plays a physical game despite his lack of mass and weight right now. Stats were nothing to get excited about (61-17-22-39 on a weak team), but he's got some raw potential and promise, plus the NHL bloodlines that teams love. He's a longer-term project who will require faith and patience, but could be a good one once his coordination gets more in line with his big body.

13. Reece Scarlett, D Swift Current- The offense didn't come as expected for this very averaged-sized defenseman who is a very good skater and puckhandler. His six goals and 24 points in 72 games for the Broncos helped to drop him down the draft lists after some early season promise, but he could be an interesting longer-term project pick for a team that has the stones to take him in the second round. He makes a nice breakout pass and seems to have the vision and hockey sense to be a legit PMD at the next level. The size is a concern, but he's a smart player who has some raw, projectable upside. If he slips to the third or fourth rounds, it might be an ideal scenario for him, as there will be very little pressure on him to develop and perform. He's a good, solid kid who sticks up for his teammates, but had his hands full on a pretty inexperienced team. Will be interesting to see how he does moving forward.

Overagers worth a look:

Brendan Shinnimin, C Tri-City- Small, but feisty and skilled center finished sixth in WHL scoring this year with 34 goals and 96 points for the Americans. The '91 birthdate followed up a solid 82 point season in 2010. Has speed and hands, and was suspended 12 games for a vicious hit from behind on Josh Nicholls. Very good hockey sense and could be a draft option after improving on his point totals.

Andrej Kudrna, LW Red Deer- Good size and skill for this Slovak, but compete levels have been questioned over the years. His production is what could see him get drafted, as he has been a consistent point producer in the WHL with Vancouver and Red Deer, but the lack of intensity is clearly what has kept NHL teams away. Did he do enough this season to get one last look?

Marcel Noebels, RW Seattle- Knocked for skating and soft play, this German is a 1992 who was passed over last season, but has some potential given that he was arguably Germany's best player at the WJC. He took the puck to the net hard and was involved throughout the games on one of the weaker teams there. With 25 goals and 49 points in 65 games, he did pretty well in North America for the T-Birds. He's a better skater than we thought, and at 6-3, 210 brings the kind of size that gives him a shot.

CHL season over; bring on the playoffs

Spring officially begins tomorrow. And spring means...hockey playoffs!

The NCAA playoffs are in the books, and this weekend marked the completion of the 2010-11 CHL regular season, with a final slate of games to be played Sunday in the OHL, QMJHL and WHL.

It has been quite a season, with players performing as expected (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Adam Larsson), unexpected players rising to the occasion (Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Shane Prince to name a few) and expected guys failing to live up to the preseason hype (David Musil, Garrett Meurs Seth Ambroz)

It's playoff time, though, and that could change the outlooks for some of the 2011 eligibles. Sure, you're probably not going to see major movement for players based on what they do in the postseason, but as we saw last year in the case of Taylor Hall, it's an opportunity for guys to make one last definitive statement to NHL teams.

We will do quick roundups of key draft eligible players in every CHL league (and we'll do the NCAA too)- recap their regular seasons, do a quick analysis on where they might be perceived right now and what a strong performance in the postseason could do for their stock. The blog will start with the QMJHL roundup, which will be posted later this afternoon/evening when the final Quebec League games are complete and we can see how everyone finished up.

The CHL second season gets underway this week, with the NCAA hockey tourney getting going the week after.

It is time.

Mock draft results: More fantasy than reality, but fun

Participated in a seven-round mock NHL draft last month on Hockey's Future Boards, hosted by the member called "Cup" as the GM of the Boston Bruins. Cup does this every year and he tries to bring in as many informed folks as he can via invite to make the picks.

You can see the whole results here if you want to go through every pick and some of the conversations associated with some of them, but for the purpose of this post, we'll break down each pick made, talk about the decision that went into it, who we had targeted in each round who came off the board before Boston's turn came and in some cases, who we would take instead knowing what we do now.

Keeping in mind that Cup locked in the draft order in late January, the Toronto Maple Leafs were still in the tank then, and the Bruins had the fourth overall pick. Does not appear that will happen come June. Also- the draft was conducted before the Bruins traded their own 1st- and 2nd-round picks for Tomas Kaberle and Chris Kelly.

Here's the breakdown, and while this would be a nice draft for the Bruins, is not grounded in much reality given the way the picks are shaking out in the standings and the fact that Boston has lost a few from its stockpile. Still, it gives the opportunity to shed some light on some guys that you might not be overly familiar with.

So, read on and as always, welcome the comments.

Pick 1, Round 1, Choice #4: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C Red Deer (WHL)

Who targeted: Gabriel Landeskog, RW Kitchener (OHL); Rolled the dice that the Islanders would pick RNH instead of Landeskog and lost. Had thought about proposing a trade to move up 1 spot to guarantee selection of Landeskog when Larsson and Couturier went 1-2, but decided against it and the Isles GM snagged the Swedish power forward.
Player synopsis: Nugent-Hopkins is one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft, and with Marc Savard's uncertain future in Boston, it doesn't hurt to draft a center with the high pick this year. Being strong up the middle allows much flexibility. Concerns abound about RNH's slight frame and the fact that he's gotten much of his points on the PP and is not a producer at even strength. We look at his tremendous wheels, hands and head and say, he's going to be a legit scorer at the NHL level.
Did you know?: We tried like hell to trade back a few spots and acquire some extra assets, but couldn't get any reasonable trade offers that would keep the Bruins in the top-10 and get some assets in the process. Some offers were downright insulting (they know who they are), while others were more intriguing, but ultimately were deal-breakers because they came from teams who didn't own top-10 picks.

Ultimately, the B's held onto the 4th pick and used it on arguably the draft's top offensive player. Had we traded back a few spots and remained in the top-10, we were looking at any one of Ryan Strome, Jonathan Huberdeau, Ryan Murphy, Brandon Saad and Dougie Hamilton.



Also, must-see viewing is the Future Considerations video Aaron Vickers and his guys put together on him.

Pick 2, Round 1, Choice #17: Scott Mayfield, D Youngstown (USHL) (From San Jose)
Who targeted: Dougie Hamilton, D Niagara. Tried to trade all the way up to #10 from #25 when Hamilton was available there and was prepared to offer up a package of Blake Wheeler, Joe Colborne, #25, #41 and a conditional 2012 to get it done. Unfortunately, the Carolina GM was dead-set on Hamilton and made the pick before weI could even make the offer. Not sure that would have been enough to move him off the pick. Nathan Beaulieu, D Saint John was the next D on our board and he went 15th to Saint John. We traded for the 17th selection- moving up eight spots and giving up #25 and #41 (Minnesota pick) to grab our highest-ranked d-man left. David Musil was also in the mix, but we just liked Mayfield's offensive upside better even if his development has stalled at bit in the USHL this season. As far as forwards go, had Swede Mika Zibanejad been available, he was our guy at 17.
Player synopsis: Big (6-4), mobile two-way defenseman has a lot of room to grow/fill-out and plays with an edge. Can move the puck effectively, and if he works on his shot mechanics, could be a feared option from the point. Vision/hockey sense are a little questionable, but he has raw upside. Headed to Denver University next year, one of the best pro-developmental programs in the NCAA.
Did you know?: Mayfield formed a feared d-pairing with Kent School's Mike McKee at last August's NHL R&D development camp, turning scouts' heads with their sheer size/mobility combo. Both are very raw players with their flaws, but if they make some progression, there is some potentially high payoff with both.

Here's a nice interview with Scott Mayfield on USHL radio that's worth listening to.

Pick 3, Round 2, Choice #56: Kale Kessy, LW Medicine Hat (WHL)
Who targeted: Forward Lucas Lessio of Oshawa would have been the pick had he lasted- no way he slips to 47 in June, simply too talented. We also thought about taking Denver freshman Nick Shore with the pick. Finnish goalie Samu Perhonen was also a thought, and in retrospect, may have been a stronger organizational move with longer-term payoff.
Player synopsis: Another Milan Lucic-type success story of a local kid from Medicine Hat who was not drafted in the WHL, but didn't give up his dream and hung around the local rinks, skating hard and fighting- eventually attracting the attention of the Tigers and getting his shot by being listed. Although the numbers don't bear it out, Kessy has some good hands and scoring chops, and like Lucic, needs to improve his skating to make it at the next level. That said, he's legitimately tough- the classic "hockey player who fights" as opposed to the "fighter who plays hockey" and those guys are always valued higher by NHL teams than the traditional lists bear out. Would Kessy be considered a reach at 56? Probably. But then again, that's exactly what was said when the B's grabbed Lucic 50th five years ago. Who wouldn't want bookend wingers with real toughness and goalscoring ability on their team?
Did you know? Kessy led the Tigers in penalty minutes as a rookie with 123 PIMs in 2009-10. At 6-3, 185, he's lanky but naturally strong. When he gets to his playing weight of about 210-215, he'll be a real beast when the play gets physical.

Here are some vids from HockeyFights plus, but don't forget- Kessy can play and score, so he isn't just a fighter.





Pick 4, Round 3, Choice #78: Alan Quine, C Peterborough (OHL) (From Minnesota)
Who targeted: We were hoping goaltender Samu Perhonen would slip, but he did not, taken with the second pick of the round. We also liked Swiss C Gregory Hofmann, even though the Bruins have never in their history taken a Swiss player. We would have broken that trend after watching him at the WJC, but Montreal snagged him just three picks earlier. Wisconsin forward Michael Mersch was another thought at 78.
Player synopsis: When looking at a player like Quine, you have to suspend disbelief in that the season he's had in his draft year is what he's going to do moving forward. At one time viewed as a first-round candidate for 2011, Quine's poor start with Kingston dropped him quickly, and being with Peterborough isn't the greatest thing for the offense, especially with Matt Puempel out. Quine has been a better player since the calendar moved to 2011, but as a smaller, skill guy (more of a playmaker than finisher) he's not managed to gain much headway in draft discussions. We feel that Quine's high-end skills and potential if he gets back on track after a tough year made him a solid value in the mid-third round. With speed, vision and a passing touch, Quine is someone who could rebound in a big way over the next couple years in the OHL. He's one-dimensional, but several NHL scouts we've talked to really like that dimension.
Did you know? Quine was traded to Peterborough in November as part of the deal that made Ryan Spooner a Frontenac.

Here's his first OHL goal, scored when still with Kingston last season.


Here's an interview courtesy of TV Cogeco on YouTube


Pick 5, Round 4, Choice #115: Andrey Pedan, D Guelph (OHL)
Who targeted: We saw two players we had pretty highly-rated go off the board just in front of us in Swedish goaltender Magnus Hellberg (109th to Colorado) and defenseman Mike McKee (106 to Montreal).
Player synopsis: The big, mobile Russian has been a disappointment this season given that he's shown no offensive upside after a strong performance at last year's Under-18s. That said, this pick was about getting value in a player who was thought of highly in some circles coming into the season. At 6-4, 200 pounds, he's got that nice size scouts look for and is pretty mobile. Unfortunately, he's managed just 10 assists on the season, so he projects more to be a shutdown guy at the NHL level if he gets there. Still, this was a player who had solid 2nd-round potential coming in, so 4th round isn't bad value.
Did you know?: Pedan was taken 18th overall in the 2010 KHL draft by Moscow Dynamo, so he had a pretty decent projection. He's been a disappointment as far as the offense goes, but the defensive play for the Storm has been strong. He could develop into more than the sum of his parts in time.

Her's a fight vid posted by JimKorn20 on YouTube: Pedan started slowly, but came on strong at the end as Josh Leivo found out the hard way.


Pick 6, Round 5, Choice #145: Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rogle (SWE-2)
Who targeted: We would have though about taking London C Seth Griffith, but he went off the board right before Boston's choice. There was nobody else, aside for Plymouth C Garrett Meurs, who would be a steal for the Islanders in the 6th round, to consider here.
Player synopsis: Possibly the steal of Boston's mock draft. Bengtsson had no business being on the board this late based on what we're hearing from various scouts. We actually thought about taking him in the 4th before opting for Pedan, so were tickled when he was still sitting there 30 picks later. This all-around defender has been playing against men in the Swedish Allsvenskan (second division) all season long. He's not a big name or high-end guy but does a lot of things well and has a big shot, meaning he could be a PP triggerman someday. He's intelligent and can play a physical game, though he's not consistent in throwing his weight around. He's just one of those players who could be a solid No. 3 but should be a sure No. 4 you win with because of his smarts and versatility.
Did you know?: Bengtsson attended an elite developmental camp in L.A. this past summer with fellow Swede Victor Rask, and has indicated that he very much wants to be an NHL player- no Carl Soderberg disease from this kid!

Here's a vid from the Ivan Hlinka in August- Bengtsson is #3 and has the primary assist on Oscar Klefbom's goal


Pick 7, Round 6 Choice #175: Sami Salminen, RW HIFK Helsinki (Finland- Jr.)
Who targeted: We would have thought hard about taking a developmental long-term goalie project here in Loomis-Chaffee star Steve Michalek, but the Flyers snagged him just one spot in front of Boston. Also considered: Edina HS (MIN) center Steven Fogarty, who is going to the Chicago Steel of the USHL next year.
Player synopsis: More intriguing late-round potential from Europe. This big (6-5) winger has soft hands and a scorer's touch. He has very heavy feet, which is why you haven't heard much about him, but the offensive hockey sense, shot and overall ability to put the puck in the net makes him the kind of player you take a flier on late. The skating may never improve enough to make him a legit NHL option, but if it does, look out.

Pick 8, Round 7, Choice #186: Andy Andreoff, LW Oshawa (OHL)
Who targeted: We thought about several other overagers here: Chase Balisy (who went to TOR at 196), Tomas Filippi of Quebec (who went one spot later at 187), and even Anton Burdasov (who wasn't picked). But in the end, we saw Andreoff in Oshawa on New Year's Day so defaulted simply to the one player we had seen live.
Player synopsis: What would be a Boston draft of late without at least one previously passed-over prospect, right? Andreoff has had a good season for the Generals offensively with more than 30 goals, so we figured he was as good a candidate as any other.

Well, that's a wrap on the mock draft. More fiction than fact, but it was a fun exercise and it would be cool to reprise this activity in early June when the Memorial Cup and draft combine are in the books and the latest player rankings are hot off the presses.

Waffle Watch: 2011 Boston Bruins draft pick update Valentine's Day edition: 14 Feb.

Not a bad week for the Waffle Watch. Toronto won a few, lost an OT game to the Devils they should have won, and then got shutout in Montreal, but the teams above and behind the Leafs in the standings won (with the exception of the Oilers who seem like a pretty big lost cause at this point). They've lost three in a row and now hold the dubious honor of being in the NHL's basement. Better luck next year, guys, eh? But, if they finish there, they could align themselves for an outstanding defenseman in Adam Larsson, or they might even opt for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who has been tearing it up in the WHL for the nearby Red Deer Rebels. If Steve Tambellini and co. take RNH, you can bet it will be because they saw enough of him to truly feel comfortable with making him their go-to pivot for the future. Players in the backyard tend to benefit from that kind of geography if they have the goods.

Colorado is in free-fall as well, having lost 7 in a row. They are just four points ahead of the Leafs, with the Panthers just one spot below them in the standings and three points ahead of Toronto. The good news is, the Leafs are entering a tough schedule stretch, and it all starts with a big head-to-head with the Bruins in Boston Tuesday night.

Now as for the Toronto pick, we're hearing more and more that the Bruins want to load up and make their push for the Stanley Cup this year. Based on what was seen in two back-to-back losses against the Detroit Red Wings, they don't have the horses and even a trade for that all-important PMD won't solve all of Boston's woes. That said, when your goalie is having the kind of season Tim Thomas has, the GM owes it to the players and the fans to have the guts to try (there is a cool story about that last phrase- "the guts to try" related to the failed Iranian hostage rescue attempt in 1980- Google it).

Chicago GM Stan Bowman has emphatically declared Brent Seabrook off the market, but is that the whole truth and nothing but, or one of those endorsements akin to the kiss of death that we've seen in the past. Time will tell, but I would guess that unless a team massively overpays for Seabrook, he'll still be a Blackhawk when the deadline passes. Another defenseman who has obvious appeal to the Bruins is Atlanta's Zach Bogosian, former third overall selection in 2008 who was rumored to be a player the Bruins made an effort to trade all the way up for until Don Waddell politely rebuffed them and took the OHL stud himself. Bogosian has struggled in his third NHL season, and if ever there was a time to trade for him, it is now. Question is-- will Rick Dudley be interested in sending Bogosian away? He's got to know what kind of potential the Thrashers have in that kid. Like Seabrook, he'd have to be blown away by an offer, but Dudley has never been shy about making trades before, so this is one dog that could hunt come deadline day.

That leads to one final rumor that seems to have some appeal with some in the Boston media: Tomas Kaberle and Kris Versteeg back to the Leafs for that Toronto 1st. To me, that deal on the surface looks like a move, but the reality is- it would look better on paper than in reality. Kaberle is Charmin soft and soon to be an unrestricted free agent. Yes, he's an excellent puck mover and PP point man, but how good a fit would he be in Boston? And, would he be a rental player for the team that actually thought they'd acquired him two years ago? Kaberle's play has gone south in the months since Boston had that aborted deal for him in Montreal and even if you look at his career playoff stats, he's got 6 goals and 28 points in 77 games-- is that really the guy you think is going to be a postseason stud? As for Versteeg, he'd be likely better in Beantown than he's been in Toronto, where the B's improved depth would serve him better than he's had to be as one of the Leafs' go-to guys. He's more of an improvement than Kaberle would be, but as much as Versteeg's game is what Boston needs, I don't know that he's worth giving up that top-five pick for. I'm sure some will disagree, but that's my position- Versteeg is more of a luxury and not an essential component, though I believe lots of folks would love to have him back. The fact is- he never should have been traded away in the first place.

All things considered, if the Bruins are going to make a big move, they'd be much better off going with one or the other potential studs in Seabrook and Bogosian. Kaberle and Versteeg carry more risk and who wants to see that pick go right back to Toronto and let the Leafs off the hook? I'm sure Toronto fans would dig it. And ultimately, Peter Chiarelli will have to decide if that's the kind of move he's going to make. Sure, it would allow him to address two areas in one transaction, but don't forget the old Frederick the Great quote: "He who defends everywhere, defends nowhere." What that means is, if you're going to use the key assets to make a big move, then get a stud player at one position or the other, don't get a couple of good players who may or may not be the key to an extended run. If Kaberle were a little tougher, that would be one thing, but the guy has been unable to make himself part of even a playoff solution for the Leafs in five straight years. You'd think the Bruins can do better, especially since he'll turn 33 just a few days after the trade deadline. He's not getting any younger.

Bruins are best served going younger with longer staying power in Seabrook or Bogosian or any other defenseman with upside who might be available on the market. None, however, no matter who they are, will come cheap.

And now, here's the standings watch for the week:

1st Round
5th overall- Toronto (52 points; 23-27-6)- Completes Phil Kessel trade.
25th overall- Boston (69 points; 31-18-7) (Boston moves to 25th by virtue of third seed- Northeast Division lead with fewest points of division leaders even though technically lower than other teams in standings)

2nd Round
47th overall- Minnesota (65 points;30-20-5)- Completes Chuck Kobasew trade.
55th overall- Boston

3rd Round
79th overall- Phoenix (61 points; 26-19-9) - Completes Derek Morris trade.
Boston pick traded to Florida; Completes Nathan Horton deal

4th Round
115th overall- Boston

5th Round
145th overall- Boston

6th Round
175th overall- Boston

7th Round
186th overall- Florida (conditional 52 pts; 23-23-6)- Jeff LoVecchio, Jordan Knackstedt to Panthers for Sean Zimmerman, cond. 7th
Boston pick traded to Chicago (Zach Trotman)