THe NHL's Central Scouting Service released its final rankings on Monday, and this blog took a close look at the North American prospects. Now, it is time to turn the attention to the list of European players available in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
It looks like another big year for Sweden, with six of Central's top-10 Euros coming out of that Scandinavian hockey factory.
Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson kept his spot atop the rankings and is still a candidate to go first overall in the draft, as the Edmonton Oilers hold the No. 1 selection. The 6-3, 200-pounder is a powerful skater who is smooth with his stride and footwork. He has very good hands and vision for advancing the puck and hitting teammates with speed coming out of their zone. He plays a smart positional game and has a big shot. He can run the power play effectively as both a distributor and triggerman.
Larsson made it to the Swedish Elite League at age 16, just the third defenseman to do so behind Calle Johansson and Victor Hedman. As such, Larsson's game has been nitpicked a lot, much like Sean Couturier's has, taking a little of the bloom off the rose.
At the same time, this kid is so solid and mature, it's hard to imagine he'll fall much if at all in St. Paul. The challenge he faces with Edmonton is that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a wide fan and media favorite. A lot of folks are going to want the Oilers to take the slight but supremely skilled center. At the same time, Larsson is a safer pick, even if he doesn't have RNH's dynamic, game-breaking element.
Countryman Mika Zibanejad, whom we like to call the "Persian Prince of Sweden" because of his Iranian (and Finnish on his mother's side) parentage, is second on Central's list and deserves to be there. We could argue that no player is generating more buzz and interest right now than Zibanejad is. He broke into Djurgarden's SEL club after beginning the year on the J20 squad and played extremely well against the men.
Zibanejad (aka "Z-Bad" by THN's Ryan Kennedy) plays with some real fire and passion. He's a good skater with an extra gear, has a quick stick and a lethal shot. With his 6-2, 191-pound frame, he plays a physical style and is going to get bigger and stronger as he continues to mature. We will have a more detailed analysis of Zibanejad soon, as he will be profiled in this blog's next "case for" post, but with 5 goals and 9 points in 26 games, he showed enough to be a potential top-10 pick in June.
Another Swede rounds out the top-three, with defenseman Jonas Brodin of Färjestad locking it down with his very solid all-around game and intelligence. Brodin didn't score a goal in 42 games this season, but his game is more than his stats indicate. He's highly mobile, with the poise and vision to make plays all over the ice. He's not an aggressive, attacking-type player but is going to make a team defense dangerous because he has the smarts and wheels to jump into the play when he needs to, but is also going to make all the plays defensively. He's extremely light and needing to add strength and mass to his 6-1 frame, but along with Zibanejad and fellow Färjestad defender Oscar Klefbom, Brodin will be watched closely at the Under-18 Championship tourney this week and next.
Big Finnish forward Joel Armia is next on Central's list at four. Many would argue he should be ahead of Brodin and even Zibanejad, but we have no problem with where he is. At 6-3, 191 he has terrific size for a winger and is a fluid skater who can handle the puck well and beat defenders with an array of impressive 1-on-1 moves. He's got a real big shot and release, but can also handle the puck well in traffic and is effective with the deke. Where he loses his luster with us a bit is in his overall defensive game (needs major work) and tendency to fade and disappear for stretches. He got off to a very hot start and still finished with a respectable 18 goals in 48 games- it's just that we feel Armia is one of the more overrated prospects in this draft because he still gets a ton of credit for what he did early on, but his supporters don't want to talk about how he seemed to hit the wall at mid-season. Make no mistake- he's a legitimate draft talent and could end up being a stud NHLer in time. But right now, he's pretty one-dimensional and we don't see what all the top-10 fuss is about. Now, if he rips it up at the U18s, that will be huge for him, but inside the top-10, we wouldn't be comfortable making the recommendation to take Armia there. After 10, it's on just about anywhere. High upside with this one, but there's a bust factor, too. His body language and playing style reminds us a lot of Mikko Lehtonen, whom the Bruins recently traded to the Wild after he didn't work out in Providence.
Czech power forward Dmitri Jaskin checks in at five, and he's worthy of that ranking based on what we hear. A knee injury kept him out of the World Jrs. in Buffalo and he missed February's Five Nations tourney as well, but he's in Germany with a chance to make a run for a top-20 or top-15 selection in June. His skating is a drawback, but everything else about the kid- size (6-1, 200), hands, shot, passion- is all there. He's the best prospect coming out of the Czech Republic this season and bears watching. He'd be ranked much higher if not for his plodding skating and lack of agility, but he goes hard to the net and makes things happen.
Oscar Klefbom is an intriguing defender rising up the various draft boards because of his size and offensive upside. Although not the all-around defender his teammate Brodin is, Klefbom nevertheless is more of a visible presence on the ice and does more to key the attack. In fact, we would not at all be surprised if Klefbom ends up getting picked ahead of Brodin in the NHL draft. The U18 will obviously make or break that kind of scenario happening. But at 6-4, 200 pounds, this excellent skater and skilled player loves to join the rush and has strong offensive instincts. One player to watch for the 2011 draft as a darkhorse to be an off-the-board pick.
Miikka Sälomaki and Joachim Nermark are seventh and eighth on the list. We liked Sälomaki at the WJC- he was involved and played with a lot of energy for Team Finland. We've wondered about his offensive upside at the NHL level, but this guy just keeps hanging around and playing well in international tournaments. He may not have high-end skills, but compensates with his anticipation and hustle. He's only average-sized and needs to get a lot stronger, but played well for Kärpät in the SM-Liiga and will be a solid, if unspectacular prospect for the team that drafts him.
Nermark has been a disappointment after looking so good at the Ivan Hlinka in August. He could drop some at the draft as a result of his struggles in finding the back of the net and putting up the points this season playing on Linköping's J20 team for much of the season (he played 12 SEL games- 1 assist). That said, he's one of those players with the raw talent and scoring intangibles to get back on track and evolve into a beast, so one team just might take the plunge earlier than expected. He's a good skater with a 6-1 frame and room to grow. His soft hands and knack for threading the needle is impressive as his quick release and ability to score, but he didn't finish enough in his draft season with 8 goals, 26 points on the junior squad. Nermark is another one who could get a big boost in Germany if he can get back to his Slovakia-like dominance.
Markus Granlund, brother of Wild prospect and top-10 selection last June Mikael Granlund, is on the list at 9th overall. We're not sure about this one, to be honest. Granlund is a solid player, but he's not his older brother. He's also undersized and is a better skater than Mikael, but still lacks that top-end speed scouts want to see in smaller guys. He doesn't have his older brother's pure offensive hockey sense and vision however. He was productive on HIFK's junior team with 20 goals and 52 points in 40 games, and he has been very good in 15 international games this season, posting 11-10-21 totals. Could be flying under the radar a bit, but we always wonder about expectations about brothers when one is so clearly a top prospect in Mikael's case. Markus could be a solid complimentary player, but based on what we're hearing, he doesn't have the star potential.
Rounding out the top-10 is defenseman Rasmus Bengtsson, who spent the season in the Allsvenskan with Rögle. At 6-2, 196, he's still filling out. He's a good skater with solid all-around skills and some two-way potential. He can move the puck effectively and has a cannon shot. He just needs to keep working on his defensive awareness and decision-making, but held his own against men in the Swedish second division.
Swiss forward Gregory Hoffman just missed the top-10, but he should probably be in there. There's a lot to like about the skilled, intelligent pivot who just seems to be able to make the big play when his team needs it. He's up eight spots to 11 from 19 at mid-season, but we still like Hofmann a lot and feel he's one of the more underrated Euros in the draft.
We'll be back later with more of a look at the European players on the list outside the top-11.
*(Not affiliated with the Boston Bruins or the New England Hockey Journal)
Showing posts with label Joachim Nermark. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joachim Nermark. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Thursday, March 24, 2011
European draft prospects 2010-11 roundup
B2011DW has looked at the top (in our view) draft eligible players all three of the CHL's leagues and the NCAA class, so for this post, we're going to fly across the Atlantic to see how the European prospects are faring.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
It's a strong year for Sweden (and Gabriel Landeskog isn't even in this particular Sweden post, but is part of the gold class overall), but several of the other European nations have their best players skating in North America this season (Alex Khokhlachev, Vladdy Namestnikov, David Musil, Sven Bartschi, Nicklas Jensen, Tomas Jurco, Tobias Rieder, David Honzik, Petr Placek and Christopher Gibson to name just a few).
Sweden is leading the way, but these things go in cycles, and there are some interesting players to be had from other countries- NHL teams will just have to dig a little more to find those diamonds-in-the-rough.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå (SEL)- Still the beast- er- best European prospect for the 2011 draft. Smooth, skilled defenseman has playing against men since age 16. He's 6-3, 220 pounds- a mature, poised, confident kid even though he had a down year (1 goal, 9 points in 37 games) compared to his rookie campaign in the SEL (4-13-17 in 49 contests). Larsson had some up-and-down performances in international tournaments, but saved some of his best for the World Jr. Championship. He showed off his powerful stride and ability to move well laterally, and was especially good at moving the puck and making outlet passes. Larsson is a smart guy who sees the ice well and has a high panic point, meaning he'll hold onto the puck until the last possible second for his teammates to get open, meaning he often takes a good amount of hits over the course of a game and season. He also has a booming shot and can score his share of them from the point. Larsson was not a dominating player, but that's not really his game. On the downside, he's struggled with injuries this year- missing time because of an injury and he got banged up in a March 22 playoff game against Luleå, injuring his shoulder and not dressing for the next contest. Like many kids who emerge as draft frontrunners early, he's had his game nitpicked and some wonder if he can truly be a legitimate No. 1 two-way cornerstone at the NHL level, but he has all the tools to be very, very good regardless. Several NHL scouts we've spoken to feel that Larsson is getting the typical treatment most get when they've been in the spotlight so long- every aspect of their game gets laid bare. Save for the rare player like Sidney Crosby, most draft prospects can't stand up under that kind of intense scrutiny without some warts being discovered.
Stock Watch: Up, despite injury situation. You're looking at the first or second overall pick with this kid- make no mistake about that. It will be interesting to see how he develops at the NHL level, but given his pro experience abroad, don't be surprised to see him in the big show as early as next season if his contract situation permits. He has the physical and mental makeup to play right away.
Here's an interesting video produced by a Skelleftea Sweden-based TV crew w/ analysis of Adam Larsson at 2:20 mark by Ottawa Senators scout Pierre Dorion- he also reviews David Rundblad, a Sens prospect.
2. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (SEL)- A B2011DW favorite going back to last season when we heard raves about him in the World Under-17s, we hyped him before the Ivan Hlinka, and he didn't have a great tournament. However, the youngster has seized control of his draft fortunes this season. Zibanejad, who comes from Iranian-Finnish stock but is all Swede, has been the anti-Victor Rask in terms of elevating his stock. He's a smart. energetic, passionate player who takes those intangibles and brews a nice concoction with his impressive physical and skills package. Versatility is also a bonus for Zibanejad who can play center or either wing as right-shooting player. He's a long strider who gets up and down the surface quickly and at 6-2, 192 pounds has plenty of room to fill out and get stronger. Zibanejad has soft hands and the vision/instincts to make plays all over the ice. He's also got a hard, heavy shot that he uses to great effect, sometimes seeing time at the point on the power play. We've seen him move fluidly and effortlessly from the point to the middle of the slot and uncork some nice drives, so he's a dangerous offensive player that defenses must account for. He's a banger and relishes physical contact. Zibanejad just oozes star quality, and we're sure that when you get a good look at him, you'll quickly see why so many are high on him right now. We're hearing that scouts have him near the top of watch lists for next month's Under-18 Championship in Germany- if he has a great tourney, don't be surprised to see him crack the top-10 at the NHL draft in June. Yes, he's riding that kind of a wave right now. Zibanejad played 26 games in the SEL with Djurgården, scoring 5 goals and 9 points, respectable totals considering he doesn't even turn 18 until next month. He put up 12 goals and 21 points in 27 games with Djurgården's Under-20 team and added 1-1-2 totals in 7 playoff games.
Stock Watch: Just call Zibanejad the Ryan Strome and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Euro draft eligibles. If he has a strong U-18, he'd better be someone you get very familiar with for the top third of your NHL mock drafts.
Here is Zibanejad putting John Klingberg into the bench. Nice play.
Here's a nice highlight reel goal of Zibanejad abusing Larsson with an inside move after taking the homerun pass and then finishing it off.
3. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (FIN SM-Liiga)- This 6-3, 190-pound winger had a nice rookie season playing in Finland's top pro league with Ässät, scoring 18 goals and 29 points. He's tall and lean, needing to add a lot of bulk and functional strength to his frame. He's got an efficient skating stride, which is pretty to watch and stands him in good stead heading into the draft. He handles the puck well and with confidence. In fact, his English isn't all that great, but when we talked to him at the WJC in Buffalo, he lit up and was most animated when discussing the black biscuit: "I want the puck," Armia first declared, then thought about it. "I like the puck. I'm good with the puck." Yes, he is- trust us. His work wasn't rewarded with any goals, but you can see the raw potential there with him. He faded in the later tourney games, and from what we hear, did the same in Finland as the grind got to him. He's not a very physical player, but doesn't avoid contact either. When he gets stronger, he should be able to hold his own better along the walls. Personally, B2011DW doesn't get the feelings about Armia going inside the top-10- we understand the skill level and all, but on a more personal level, we just feel stronger about a player like Zibanejad who is nearly as big, but who just plays on another level in terms of his energy and enthusiasm. This isn't to say Armia isn't a solid top-20, but scouting hockey sometimes is about gut feelings and personal preferences, and we feel Zibanejad projects as a better NHL player than Armia does.
Stock Watch: Steady to down; Started fast, but hit the rookie wall, which is understandable for a 17-year-old playing against men. At the same time, we feel Armia is overrated; we like him as an NHL prospect, just not in the top-10 where some sources have him. He might crack it, but he'll need a dominant performance in Germany next month to do it, we think.
Here's a video of his first pro goal last season- very nice hands for sure.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad (SEL)- This defenseman isn't going to win any beauty pageants, but he's a good two-way defender who does everything at a high level and held his own in the Eliteserien this year. He's a good skater with four-way mobility and solid footwork. He sees the ice and anticipates well, moving the puck smartly and making the right decisions. Brodin plays a very disciplined, mature game and scouts say that as he hit his stride in the SEL, he started showing off the offensive tools in his repertoire. He didn't score any goals (4 assists) in his 42 pro games this season (but he did get one in the playoffs), and he's more like a Tomas Kaberle who makes excellent passes and reads the flow of the game, exploiting openings as opposed to a flashy gunner who's throwing the puck to the net all the time. Brodin is just a solid, solid player and we regret that he got sent home as the last cut on Sweden's Under-20 team at the WJC in Buffalo, because he would have provided some real poise and a steady hand there.
Stock Watch: Down from where it was most of the year, but mostly because of the play of guys like Zibanejad and Oscar Klefbom, who have stolen the spotlight for their flashy, dynamic elements. Some team will certainly recognize Brodin's value and take him high enough- we think 1st round, but not sure where he shakes out. Early 2nd at the latest.
5. Oscar Klefbom, D Färjestad (SEL)- At 6-3, 201 pounds, this flashy defender is the young Yin in Färjestad to Brodin's Yang in that he's a more noticeable presence on the offensive side of things. An excellent passer and puck mover, Klefbom jumps into the play more aggressively, and we're told that his confidence soared by leaps and bounds once he got used to the higher demands of the SEL after coming up from the J18 team. He's got some growing and filling out to do, but plays a more physical game than many thought and will get better as he grows stronger and more experienced. His hockey sense is OK- he's not as naturally instinctive and poised as Brodin is in the eyes of one NHL scout out of Europe we spoke to, but he's very good at activating at the right times when the openings are there. Defensively, he's coming along and just might carry a higher overall upside and earlier draft grade than Brodin when June rolls around. He missed time at the Five Nations, but made a big impression on scouts when he got into it late. Again, the Under-18 tournament will have an impact on how teams view a guy like Klefbom, who is more of a swing-for-the-fences guy than the safer, steadier Brodin is.
This video is in Swedish, but it does give some nice looks at footage of him in game action and practice.
6. Dmitri Jaskin, RW Slavia Praha (CZE- Extraliga)- B2011DW recently had a comprehensive post on Jaskin, so we won't cover the same ground other than to say that outside of Scandinavia, Jaskin is the next best European 2011 draft prospect in our view. The Czech power winger is back from a knee injury, which not only took him out of action for several months, but also hampered his mobility, which wasn't great to begin with. In fact, the skating is really the only issue scouts are finding with this horse who bangs bodies, works extremely hard and has soft hands and a lethal release in close. He's never going to be a plus-skater, but if he can improve on his agility the way Milan Lucic has, a guy with the quick mitts and offensive hockey sense he possesses can do some damage. Unlike former Bruins 2002 draft bust (and that was most of the class to be frank) Jan Kubista, Jaskin has a serious work ethic and will address his shortcomings in some fashion. He scored 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games in Czech Republic's top pro league this season.
7. Victor Rask, C Leksand (SWE-2)- Every year, the draft has several confounding prospects who plummet in the rankings after being seen as sure bets to go at or near the top. Rask is the 2011 poster child for that annual effect. He had a particularly bad performance in February's Five Nations tourney, which, when factored in with the rest of his mediocrity this season, has caused him to fall down more than a few draft boards. At 6-2, 190, he has long limbs, an athletic frame and the near perfect physical attributes for the modern NHL center. The problem is, he's not very strong and despite being highly creative and a superb puckhandler, hasn't done a great job of getting his wingers the puck this season or showing off the kind of high-end skills that had scouts drooling last year. His skating is a bit of an issue, with a choppy stride and lack of initial quickness, but is something he can remedy with work on the technique, because the power will come in time. The question becomes- do you spend a high (top-10) pick on a player who very well might have peaked, or is he one of those guys who is simply not delivering during the pressure-packed draft season and will get back on track next season and beyond? There is no denying the upside because he is a legitimate talent who has exhibited outstanding physical traits and immeasurables such as his offensive sense and vision. His 5 goals and 11 points in 37 games in the Allsvenskan or second pro division was disappointing, and he was sent down to the junior club, where he scored 3 goals and 12 points in 13 games with the J20 squad.
8. Samu Perhonen, G Jyvaskyla (FIN- Jr.)- Like Jaskin, B2011DW has broken down Perhonen's game before. He's a classic Finnish butterfly goalie with ideal height at 6-3 with the long arms and legs that take up so much of the net and don't require the distance coverage of short-limbed goalies. He posted a solid 2.72 GAA and .922 save percentage for JYP's junior (under20) team and followed it up by stopping 93 percent of the shots he's faced in the playoffs. He could be good enough to push John Gibson for top billing among goalies in this draft class and in all likelihood is a solid second-round selection with a chance of maybe breaking into the late-1st round if a more successful NHL club wanted to invest the time and accept some risk on a goalie with a potentially high payoff.
9. Gregory Hofmann, C/W Ambri-Piotta (SUI)- B2011DW's favorite draft eligible at the 2011 WJC in Buffalo by a wide margin. There is so much to like about this player, but unfortunately, he's going to encounter some of the Swiss bias that permeates the NHL because unlike guys like Luca Sbisa, Nino Niederreiter and Sven Bartschi, he isn't over in North America, alleviating concerns about commitment and dedication. Good skater with jump and a wide skating base. Fluid movement and attacks aggressively into the teeth of defenses. Has a quick stick and is very opportunistic around the net. Works hard and willing to take the hit to make the play. Creative and hard-working; doesn't wait for teammates to get him the puck; willing to do the dirty work. Not very tall or strong- looks like he's about 14 or 15. Nice kid- doesn't speak English all that well, but was better at it than he gave himself credit for. No major warts on his game, and if he was a Canadian, he'd be a surefire early 2nd-rounder with strong 1st-round potential. Because of where he comes from, he'll slide a little more than he should we think. IN 41 games with the Ambri senior team, he scored 3 goals and 12 points, and added a goal and 4 points at the WJC.
10. Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Novokusznetsk (KHL)- Average-sized defender (6-0, 180) is mobile, smart and carries some upside. He's not a blazing skater, but is fast enough and brings nice footwork and lateral movement to the mix. He keeps his head up and is an intelligent player who reads the play well and moves the puck to the right spaces on the ice. He made the victorious Russian squad at the CHL Subway Series, and was one of the final cuts on Team Russia's gold medal-winning WJC squad. What makes him impressive is that he was the youngest player on the Subway Team and would have been the youngest on the WJC team by a wide margin. He didn't do a lot to stand out in the Subway Series, but played pretty mistake-free hockey. He's been a tough view for NHL scouts playing in Siberia this season posting 3-5-8 totals in 47 games for Novokuznetsk, so where he goes in the draft is anyone's guess. Red Line has him 54th in March, but the Russians tend to slide in recent seasons and we see no real reason for Arzamastsev to be a trend bucker this time. He could be a mid-to-late-round gem, though and has a good reputation off the ice as a passionate, dedicated player.
11. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (KHL)- One NHL scout told us that Shalunov is the "classic" Russian winger- he goes end-to-end with his terrific wheels and ability to stickhandle through a maze of bodies. Unfortunately, his hockey sense and vision are not first-rate, and when combined with the fact that he's a Russian playing in Russia (he spent most of the year on Chelyabinsk's second division team going 11-13-24 in 38 games but did see 6 KHL games of action 0-1-1) makes the idea of drafting him more of an iffy proposition. Red Line Report perhaps said it best in the March issue after seeing Shalunov at the Five Nations: "Absolutely outstanding raw tools, but no toolbox." And therein lies the rub in a seven-round draft: can a team really afford to roll the dice on a guy who has high-end talent and skills, but lacks the sense and may not ever even come over? His upside is what keeps him just outside the top-10 for Europe, but realistically, we wouldn't be at all surprised if he gets passed over or is a late, late pick in June at best.
12. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (SWE- Jr.)- After a dominant Ivan Hlinka tourney in August where everything Nermark seemed to touch turned to gold, he had a tough season. He played 12 games on Linköping's SEL entry (1 assist) but spent most of the year on the J20 team, tallying 8 goals and 26 points in 37 games. He's a skilled and creative player by all accounts, but didn't show much of the creativity and magic he did on the Under-18 Team. Nermark is no slouch and could be a nice developmental find in the 2nd round for a team willing to gamble a little (hello, Detroit?) on a player with his potential, but scouts we've talked to are pretty perplexed as to what happened to him after showing so much promise.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Central Scouting's mid-season rankings: European skaters pt. 2
Back with part 2 of the European review of Central Scouting's mid-term rankings for skaters.
In this post I will make generic comments about the players I have only seen on video or not at all, while going into more detail on those who were at the WJC in Buffalo. My intent is to reach out to some of my European scout sources in the NHL and independent services to expand on the guys who I haven't seen. Hopefully, can get that post up this week or next.
3rd- Mika Zibanejad, C Djurgarden Jr. (SWE)-- The almost 6-2, 195-pound center is skilled and creative; he's one of these players who intrigues scouts because of his size and talent, even if he has yet to put it all together consistently.
4th- Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad (SWE)-- Solid, all-around defenseman with good height needs to fill out/add strength and is more of a well-rounder player with good puck-moving ability but not a dynamic offensive presence. Smart, heady, disciplined-- the classic you don't notice him because he's doing a good job kind of player. A shame he didn't play in the WJC, but he'll be there next year.
5th- Dmitri Jaskin, F Slavia Prague Jr. (CZE)-- An injury prevented Jaskin from competing in the WJC-like Landeskog bowing out, a true shame because Jaskin is a power forward prospect a lot of scouts were really hoping to get a glimpse of in the high profile tournament. Physical player with a big shot and a good work ethic probably would have been a standout in Buffalo.
6th Max Friberg, LW Skovde (SWE)-- A pleasant surprise as an undersized, but high-energy winger at the WJC. Played aggressively on the forecheck and showed a willingness to go into traffic. Good wheels, but stickhandling needs work. Decent two-way player, but didn't see a great deal of grit from Friberg. That was more the realm of Rakell in the tourney. Friberg probably looked the best in his team's 2-0 win over Russia in the preliminary round.
7th Miikka Salomaki, C Karpat (FIN)-- Overshadowed by Armia, Salomaki had a pretty solid performance on Team Finland in the WJC. Showed off good speed and lateral agility. Took the puck to the net and was more involved in the play/kept his feet moving better than Armia. Doesn't have his counterpart's pure size or talent, but competed harder. At times looked more like the 1st-round pick than Armia did in terms of consistency throughout. Much better things are in store for Salomaki.
8th Oscar Klefbom, D Farjestad Jr. (SWE)-- This guy is a serious offensive defenseman, but he's pretty one-dimensional and risky. Showed scouts a good deal of his point potential at the Ivan Hlinka, but has some major defensive flaws in his game. Klefbom is one of those "high risk/high reward" guys.
9th Victor Rask, C Leksand Jr. (SWE)-- The one-time potential top-five pick's stock has taken a nosedive this season. Scouts are perplexed with what they are seeing and not seeing from the talented, but underachieving pivot. Perhaps Kyle Woodlief and Co. said it best in the December issue of Redline when they wrote: "It's not that he hasn't played well at times, but he always leaves us wanting (expecting?) more. Great size and playmaking ability, but must bring more consistent passion."
10th Joachim Nermark, C Linkoping Jr. (SWE)-- This guy can really put the puck in the net! Nermark is one player who will probably go higher than his Central ranking would indicate. Not dynamic, but works hard and is a total opportunist from what I hear. One of those players scouts will note that the "puck seems to follow around the ice." Very effective on the power play. Seems to have Detroit Red Wings written all over him.
17th Johan Sundstrom, C Frolunda (SWE)-- Another member of Sweden's WJC Under-20 team, he brings nice size to the equation and was an effective checking presence for the Swedes. He's not flashy, though he is a long-strider and can cover a lot of ground. Played in traffic and initiated contact. Doesn't appear to have much in the way of hands or offensive instincts, but will be a draft pick who will be groomed for a checking/intangibles role in the NHL one day.
19th Gregory Hofmann, C Ambri-Pilotta (SUI)-- In this blog space's opinion, the most consistent and effective forward of all the 2011-eligibles in Buffalo. He's definitely closer to 5-11/6-0 than the 6-1 I've seen listed other places, and he's a young-looking 18 (Nov. '92 BD) with a lot of physical maturing/strength building ahead of him. However, he played with some real energy, speed and came off bigger than his size because he always kept his feet moving, hit guys along the boards and won a lot of battles for loose pucks. Very nice hands and vision. He's underrated on Central's list at 19, though he could fall prey to some of the traditional prejudices against Swiss players. Through an interpreter, he said that he would be willing to come over to North America, but that his focus was on Ambri's season and he didn't want to say anything beyond the interest and keep his loyalties intact to his pro team.
20th Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk 2 (RUS)-- The "classic" Russian winger as one NHL scout put it to me who can go end-to-end and will score in a variety of ways. Just don't expect a lot of attention to detail on defense or a consistent effort in all three zones. No denying this 6-3, 185-pounder is skilled and talented, but will have questions about signability and passion dogging him in the weeks leading up to the draft.
24th Peter Ceresnak, D Slovakia U20 (SVK)-- Ceresnak didn't get much playing time, even when Edmonton prospect Martin Marincin took a seat after his elbow to Jason Zucker's head. Big, powerful defender but a bit of a plodding skater who struggles with his pivots and turns. More of a meat-and-potatoes, staple-you-to-the-boards kind of guy, but so long as you don't spend too high a pick on a player like that, pretty useful. Ceresnak probably got "slimed" like most of his teammates in the eyes of NHL scouts who ripped Slovakia for their play in the tourney and the way they folded their tents in the preliminary round. Probably not fair given how little Ceresnak was a part of that squad, but don't buy high on any Slovak stock right now until some of those guys can prove otherwise.
That's about it. We'll be back later with a look at the European goalies, but this is a good start at least and we'll try to fill in the blanks on some other players of note when we can track down some scouts and get their opinions.
In this post I will make generic comments about the players I have only seen on video or not at all, while going into more detail on those who were at the WJC in Buffalo. My intent is to reach out to some of my European scout sources in the NHL and independent services to expand on the guys who I haven't seen. Hopefully, can get that post up this week or next.
3rd- Mika Zibanejad, C Djurgarden Jr. (SWE)-- The almost 6-2, 195-pound center is skilled and creative; he's one of these players who intrigues scouts because of his size and talent, even if he has yet to put it all together consistently.
4th- Jonas Brodin, D Farjestad (SWE)-- Solid, all-around defenseman with good height needs to fill out/add strength and is more of a well-rounder player with good puck-moving ability but not a dynamic offensive presence. Smart, heady, disciplined-- the classic you don't notice him because he's doing a good job kind of player. A shame he didn't play in the WJC, but he'll be there next year.
5th- Dmitri Jaskin, F Slavia Prague Jr. (CZE)-- An injury prevented Jaskin from competing in the WJC-like Landeskog bowing out, a true shame because Jaskin is a power forward prospect a lot of scouts were really hoping to get a glimpse of in the high profile tournament. Physical player with a big shot and a good work ethic probably would have been a standout in Buffalo.
6th Max Friberg, LW Skovde (SWE)-- A pleasant surprise as an undersized, but high-energy winger at the WJC. Played aggressively on the forecheck and showed a willingness to go into traffic. Good wheels, but stickhandling needs work. Decent two-way player, but didn't see a great deal of grit from Friberg. That was more the realm of Rakell in the tourney. Friberg probably looked the best in his team's 2-0 win over Russia in the preliminary round.
7th Miikka Salomaki, C Karpat (FIN)-- Overshadowed by Armia, Salomaki had a pretty solid performance on Team Finland in the WJC. Showed off good speed and lateral agility. Took the puck to the net and was more involved in the play/kept his feet moving better than Armia. Doesn't have his counterpart's pure size or talent, but competed harder. At times looked more like the 1st-round pick than Armia did in terms of consistency throughout. Much better things are in store for Salomaki.
8th Oscar Klefbom, D Farjestad Jr. (SWE)-- This guy is a serious offensive defenseman, but he's pretty one-dimensional and risky. Showed scouts a good deal of his point potential at the Ivan Hlinka, but has some major defensive flaws in his game. Klefbom is one of those "high risk/high reward" guys.
9th Victor Rask, C Leksand Jr. (SWE)-- The one-time potential top-five pick's stock has taken a nosedive this season. Scouts are perplexed with what they are seeing and not seeing from the talented, but underachieving pivot. Perhaps Kyle Woodlief and Co. said it best in the December issue of Redline when they wrote: "It's not that he hasn't played well at times, but he always leaves us wanting (expecting?) more. Great size and playmaking ability, but must bring more consistent passion."
10th Joachim Nermark, C Linkoping Jr. (SWE)-- This guy can really put the puck in the net! Nermark is one player who will probably go higher than his Central ranking would indicate. Not dynamic, but works hard and is a total opportunist from what I hear. One of those players scouts will note that the "puck seems to follow around the ice." Very effective on the power play. Seems to have Detroit Red Wings written all over him.
17th Johan Sundstrom, C Frolunda (SWE)-- Another member of Sweden's WJC Under-20 team, he brings nice size to the equation and was an effective checking presence for the Swedes. He's not flashy, though he is a long-strider and can cover a lot of ground. Played in traffic and initiated contact. Doesn't appear to have much in the way of hands or offensive instincts, but will be a draft pick who will be groomed for a checking/intangibles role in the NHL one day.
19th Gregory Hofmann, C Ambri-Pilotta (SUI)-- In this blog space's opinion, the most consistent and effective forward of all the 2011-eligibles in Buffalo. He's definitely closer to 5-11/6-0 than the 6-1 I've seen listed other places, and he's a young-looking 18 (Nov. '92 BD) with a lot of physical maturing/strength building ahead of him. However, he played with some real energy, speed and came off bigger than his size because he always kept his feet moving, hit guys along the boards and won a lot of battles for loose pucks. Very nice hands and vision. He's underrated on Central's list at 19, though he could fall prey to some of the traditional prejudices against Swiss players. Through an interpreter, he said that he would be willing to come over to North America, but that his focus was on Ambri's season and he didn't want to say anything beyond the interest and keep his loyalties intact to his pro team.
20th Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk 2 (RUS)-- The "classic" Russian winger as one NHL scout put it to me who can go end-to-end and will score in a variety of ways. Just don't expect a lot of attention to detail on defense or a consistent effort in all three zones. No denying this 6-3, 185-pounder is skilled and talented, but will have questions about signability and passion dogging him in the weeks leading up to the draft.
24th Peter Ceresnak, D Slovakia U20 (SVK)-- Ceresnak didn't get much playing time, even when Edmonton prospect Martin Marincin took a seat after his elbow to Jason Zucker's head. Big, powerful defender but a bit of a plodding skater who struggles with his pivots and turns. More of a meat-and-potatoes, staple-you-to-the-boards kind of guy, but so long as you don't spend too high a pick on a player like that, pretty useful. Ceresnak probably got "slimed" like most of his teammates in the eyes of NHL scouts who ripped Slovakia for their play in the tourney and the way they folded their tents in the preliminary round. Probably not fair given how little Ceresnak was a part of that squad, but don't buy high on any Slovak stock right now until some of those guys can prove otherwise.
That's about it. We'll be back later with a look at the European goalies, but this is a good start at least and we'll try to fill in the blanks on some other players of note when we can track down some scouts and get their opinions.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Central Scouting Preliminary Rankings: Europe
It's time to fly across the Atlantic Ocean for a little glimpse into the European buffet and compare the 2011 draft class against Central Scouting's overseas rankings.
Sweden, once again, is the NHL's volume dealer when it comes to imports. Between stud d-man Adam Larsson and forwards Victor Rask and Mika Zibanejad, the scary thing is, possibly the best Swede-- Kitchener forward Gabriel Landeskog, doesn't even count against the his native country's list because he's in the OHL. Between Larsson and Landeskog, we could be looking at two Swedes going 1-2 for the first time in, well, ever. The real strength of the Swedish group is their depth, and they could challenge '09 for the most Swedes ever taken in a single year.
I'm sure Sean Couturier and maybe even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will have something to say about that. But you never know with these things. It's all going to come down to who is picking first overall, and what their organizational philosophy is.
Finland has some nice offerings, too, mainly in the form of skilled power forward Joel Armia. Eastern Europe is a bit thin, but we'll cover some of the bases there as well, so buckle up and enjoy.
Adam Larsson tops the list from Sweden, and much has been written about the 6-3, 200-pound defenseman already. Despite what you hear, he's not really falling in the conventional sense-- it's just that he had such a standout SEL season as a 16-17-year-old, that the old scouting adage that there's no place to go but down from a performance like that holds true. He's still the same fluid skater with the big shot and the hands/vision/sense to run the power play and start the transition from defense to offense in an instant. He's now being nitpicked, and doesn't have the production he did a year ago, but make no mistake-- he's still one of the draft's big three.
Moving on, Jonas Brodin is No. 2 on the Central list from Sweden, and you can check out the B2011DW "A guy you should know" label for a more detailed post breaking down his game. Suffice to say that this blog space is not at all surprised that he'd be the No. 2 guy behind Larsson, but at the same time, not sure how Central can drop Victor Rask down to 4. Brodin is solid, a guy you win with, but he's not going to wow anyone either. Interesting selection.
Mika Zibanejad of the Djurgarden Jr. team is next. This guy has the size and skills, and from what I hear, is coming on after a sluggish start and mediocre Ivan Hlinka tourney in August. He's got amazing hands and when he's flying through the neutral zone, handling the puck at top speed and then wiring it top shelf, he becomes a scout's dream. He just needs to work on his intensity, consistency and for the love of Pete-- put some meat on those bones.
Leksand center Victor Rask is the preseason "hyped" player whose performance has not merited a place at the top, but (and he's not related to Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask, btw- the NHL player's a Finn and his brother, Joonas is a 2010 Nashville draft pick) should not be overlooked. He was a horse for Team Sweden last spring at the World Under-18s, and he has some real high-end skills. He looks to be suffering from the draft year malaise-- it happens. But, some team could end up stealing him if he falls too far past the 10-15 range (assuming he falls, that is)
Joachim Nermark rounds out the Sweden top-five and he's a legitimate scorer who probably deserves to be a little higher. He's seen action in the SEL this season and was one opportunistic scorer in the Ivan Hlinka. Keep an eye on him, because he might drop down a little but end up being one of those guys who shows up to his first NHL camp and surprises everyone with his skill and poise-- much like Marcus Johansson did for the Washington Capitals this past fall.
Other Swedes of note: offensive defenseman Oscar Klefbom (7), Rasmus Bengtsson (10), along with forwards Viktor Arvidsson (12), Victor Berglind (14).
Sliding over to Finland, Joel Armia deserves his spot at the top. He's the best Finnish prospect by a country mile, and his outstanding start against men in the SM-Liiga is moving him up draft boards in North America. He's got that nice 6-3 frame that will fill out in time, is a good skater for a big man and has magical hands and a finishing touch.
There isn't much depth in the Finland crop, although Mikael Granlund's younger brother Markus Granlund, is third on Central's list. Markus has nowhere near his older brother's innate hockey sense that saw him go top-10 to Minnesota in the June NHL draft, but he's a better skater. Like his bro- he's small. He turned some heads at the World Under-18s last April.
Finland has two interesting prospects in net-- the aptly named Samu Perhonen (which means 'butterfly' in Finnish) and Richard Ullberg. Perhonen plays for JYP Jr. which is interesting in that it is the club that the Bruins signed an transfer agreement with this year. You can bet that the B's are getting a nice look at Perhonen this season, and you wonder if he will end up hearing his name called at some point. At the goalie position, it will be all about value, and it is hardly worth discussing a netminder for Boston in the first three or four rounds, but we'll see where Perhonen grades out. Ullberg has gotten some mention on this blog previously for being that prototypical Finnish butterfly-style goalie with some quickness and upside.
Central's top player coming out of the Czech Republic is winger Dmitrij Jaskin, who plays for Slavia Praha (Prague) of the Czech Extraliga. He signed a four-year deal there rather than come to North America, so that will be something for NHL teams to note, but he goes hard to the net and plays that crashing kind of power forward game.
Vaclav Tomek at two is interesting, because Red Line Report had him 12th on their combined Czech Republic/Slovakia list. He's described as a good skater and hard worker/hustling two-way player, but the center lacks the creativity and hands to be considered a legitimate scoring option/top-six forward at the NHL level. Think Vladimir Sobotka without the sandpaper.
Lukas Kralik and Michael Svihalek, two of the more talented (but flawed) offensive Czechs in Red Line's view, are 8th and 10th.
In net, Jaroslav Pavelka is the top Czech on Central's list and has showed promise as a rangy, athletic goalie who is raw but has some nice long-term potential.
Slovak defenseman Peter Ceresnak heads that country's list-- he's a slightly smaller Martin Marincin with a little less offensive upside, but who plays a more aggressive, physical game. He can move the puck well, but is more of a stay-at-home shutdown guy who relishes contact and clearing the front of his net or stapling guys along the boards.
The best players from Denmark (Nicklas Jensen) and Germany (Tobias Rieder) are in the OHL, so not much to say about anyone on those respective lists for Central at present.
Maxim Shalunov is at the top of Russia's list, and again, the top Russians are all over in North America this season-- Vladislav Namestnikov, Alexander Khoklachev, Andrey Pedan, Andrei Markarov, Anton Zlobin and so on.
I talked to one scout recently who saw Shalunov in international play and this is what he said: "Classic Russian player; end-to-end all the time, very good skater. Not very creative, but knows how to go to the net."
Defenseman Zahar Arzamastsev was on the Russian squad that beat the CHL in the Subway Super Series (with two wins over the WHL after beating the QMJHL 2-0, going 0-2 to the OHL). The book on him is that he's a mobile puck mover with the skills to be a good one, but to be honest, I didn't see it on video of any of the Super Series games I watched. Seemed invisible.
Finally, we go to Switzerland for defenseman Dean Kukan. This solid all-around player isn't a flashy offensive guy, nor is he a top shutdown defender. But, he's a fluid skater who understands positioning and can move the puck pretty well. The Bruins have no track record of drafting a player from Switzerland, and Kukan isn't likely to be a guy who would buck the trend, but you never know.
Well, that about does it for Europe. There are so many more names to cover, but information is not as forthcoming about some of these guys as the ones in North America. I will do my level best to flesh out the scouting reports on the middle tier guys and lesser lights in the coming months.
As always, thanks for reading and keep putting the word out for NHL draft fans of all stripes- don't let the Bruins-centric format fool you. This is a blog for *any* NHL fan who wants a sneak peak at the kids who will be donning jerseys at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul come late June.
Up next is the WHL, which will close out the series. Hope you've enjoyed it.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
European roundup: Armia making noise
For obvious reasons, it's harder to keep the finger on the pulse of what is going on in Europe early in the season, but Finnish forward Joel Armia's offensive excellence in the SM-Liiga has emerged as one of the important storylines from across the Atlantic.
I chatted with one NHL scout based in Europe about Armia last month, and he was pretty high on the kid. "Very nice size, even better hands," he said on the condition that I wouldn't disclose his affiliation. "I like him pretty much, although I say his skating needs to get a little better. He showed some good things last year, and I think that if he can make himself more of a consistent player on every shift, he will have a great year and go high in the draft. He knows how to score, it's just the little things he needs improving on. "
So far, Armia is living up to the promise. You can see his release and nose for the net on display here at the Ivan Hlinka in August and for Ässät Pori in Finland's highest pro league (h/t to NHL Draft video). In 12 big league games, the 17-year-old who is 6-3, 187 pounds, has six goals and 10 points. Some rookies his age in that league are lucky to get five points over an entire season, so his statistical body of work is impressive.
That said, he obviously needs to get stronger and keep working on his initial burst and acceleration. If he can do that, then he should have no trouble making a run at an NHL job someday and could be looking at a top-10 selection come June. He's not quite there on a lot of lists, but nothing gets scouts more impressed than kids who prove they can skate with the big men and then put up the kind of offense beyond their years like Armia has. He's cooled off of late, but if he can rack up 20 or more points over the course of the year, you'll be hearing a lot more about him in the coming months.
Swedish defender Adam Larsson is still playing with the big boys in the elite league there for Skelleftea, but his production is down after an eye-popping (within the context of being a 17-year-old rookie DEFENSEman in his country's highest pro league) '09-10 campaign in which he scored four goals and 17 points in 49 games, while standing out as the best blue liner on Team Sweden's World Jr. Championship entry last winter. This season, Larsson has managed just a pair of helpers in the first 13 games. Could be a matter of teams keying on him, could be a matter of things just not breaking right for him like they did last year. But the one thing I'm hearing is that the skill is still there and he plays an extremely poised game for one who's still several weeks away from his 18th birthday.
So, in other words, if you're thinking Larsson is going to drop far in the 2011 draft, think again.
Victor Rask is off to a slow start this season after a lot of hype coming into it. He's scoreless in eight games with Leksands and has been called "sluggish" by a few of the scouts who have seen him. That said, this guy just has a knack for getting it together in the spring months, when the scouts are in proliferation at the various international tourneys and some of the last impressions make for the best ones. He's a very good puckhandler and creative playmaker who is able to give defenders fits for his ability to exploit weak d-zone coverage and work the puck down near the net.
The Swede who's making some real moves upwards in draft discussions right now in draft talks is Joachim Nermark, who tore it up at the Ivan Hlinka and has ridden that wave into the first couple of months of the '10-11 season, earning a promotion to Linköping's SEL team. He's a very smart, heady player with excellent hands and instincts for putting the puck in the net and setting up his teammates. He had an outrageous 5 goals and 12 points in 5 games for the Tre Kronor at the Hlinka, demonstrating that when the games matter, he's a handful to keep under wraps.
Looking for a name out of Eastern Europe, then check out Czech winger Dmitrij Jaskin, who has played well for Slavia Praha of the Extraliga in early season action. Red Line Report featured him in their October issue, and they like his size, shot and willingness to go hard to the net. Radim Jelinek is their regional scout there, and he's proven over the years to have a pretty good eye for talent. If Radim is onto something (and he has Jaskin ahead of Marek Tvrdon, who is playing well for the Vancouver Giants, btw), then watch for Jaskin to gain some notoriety and move up the boards in the process. Radim is a character who once shouted that "David Krejci has a beautiful mind!!!!" in my ear at a Vancouver bar, but the guy knows his hockey (he also was the one who taught me the correct pronunciation of Milan Lucic's name when I was talking to him about how the Bruins had just drafted Muh-lonn Loo-chick. Embarrassing, really.)
Monday, September 6, 2010
B2011DW's Official European 2010-11 player watch list
At long last, I've managed to compile my initial list of European players to keep an eye on for the 2010-11 hockey season.
For the most part, the Bruins have stayed away from Europe since 2006 when they drafted defenseman Yuri Alexandrov in the second round.
In the four drafts since, the B's have nabbed a grand total of three Europeans (Denis Reul- Germany, Radim Ostrcil- Czech Republic in '07 and Maxim Chudinov- Russia in '10), and none of them have come in the first half of the lottery.
Like 2009, the 2011 draft class appears to be very strong in terms of the Swedish contingent. I've already profiled Adam Larsson just a few posts below, and he's so good that we'll be talking about him all season, but the Tri Kronor also have some highly skilled prospects in the form of Victor Rask (he's a Swede and therefore no relation to Boston goalie Tuukka), Oscar Klefbom, Jonas Brodin, Joachim Nermark and Mika Zibanejad to name a few (and Gabriel Landeskog, who skates for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers, isn't even included in this high-end group!). Neighboring Finland boasts a skilled forward with size in Joel Armia, while Denmark has a top-10 candidate in Nicklas Jensen, a power winger and an Oshawa General for the upcoming season. Russia boasts a few intriguing players, but as has been the trend, because of the lack of a transfer agreement and signability issues, those who stay home to play hockey this season will fall further in the draft than their talent would dictate. Zakhar Arzamastsev and Maxim Shalunov fall into this category, while goalie Andrei Makarov, who will backstop the Lewiston Maine-iacs this season does not. Not to be forgotten is the Eastern European contingent from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the best of whom may be Petr Placek, who will skate for the Hotchkiss School of all places this season. More on him later, as I neglected to mention him in my New England prep watch list and preview. Other players to keep an eye on from those countries: Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka, Slovak defender Peter Cerešnák, forwards Michal Svihalek and Lukas Sedlak.
Interestingly enough, some of the best European players available in 2011 are playing in North America this season: Czech defenseman David Musil (Vancouver- WHL), Landeskog, Jensen, German forward Tobias Rieder (Kitchener- OHL), Russian centers Vladislav Namestnikov (London- OHL) and Alex Khokhlachev (Windsor- OHL), Slovak winger Tomas Jurco (Saint John- QMJHL), Russian defenseman Andrei Pedan (Guelph- OHL), Czech forward Petr Beranek (Barrie- OHL), Slovak winger Marek Tvrdon (Vancouver- WHL) Czech goalie David Honzik (Victoriaville- QMJHL)Placek, Makarov and Swedish forward (another one?) Rickard Rakell (Plymouth- OHL) are all across the Atlantic and access to them will be much more available. If they get the job done, it will undoubtedly boost their draft stock come June.
So, without further ado-- here is the Euro watch list. Swede-heavy it is, but they're the ones with the dominant presence on the preseason draft lists. Where it will all shake out come June is anyone's guess, but with Larsson leading the way, don't bet against them.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå AIK (Sweden)-- The total package has a good chance of becoming the first Swede to go 1st overall in the draft since Mats Sundin because two-way defenders with size and skill are so coveted. For more of the nuts and bolts on Larsson's skill level, see my previous post on him, but can't wait to see him live in Buffalo this winter at the WJC. Most eyes will be on him after he put up a very impressive performance on Team Sweden a year ago at age 17. "He's far and away the best player coming out of Europe this season, period and exclamation point," said one NHL scout who covers Europe for a western conference team via email. "He has the size, mobility, offensive game and is pretty polished defensively. The big question is- can he keep progressing after having such a good 09-10 season? If he does, then I think you'll see him make a real claim on the top pick in the draft."
2. Victor Rask, C Leskand (Sweden)-- Superb passer and playmaker has the size, skating and creativity to be a points machine in the NHL someday. Plays with some jam and goes hard to the net; more of a setup man than a finisher, but has a hard, heavy shot and isn't afraid to let it rip. Excellent stickhandler who can take the puck into traffic and come out with it. Thinks the offensive side of the game real well and has that instinctiveness you want in a top-six centerman. Didn't have a great Ivan Hlinka tourney according to some accounts, yet still put up six assists in five games...that gives you an idea of what his potential is. Could put up big points with the Leksand allsvenskan team this year; he played eight scoreless games for them last season at 16, and probably doesn't have much else to prove at the junior level. "I like Rask a lot," the NHL scout said. "He's got very quick hands and the ability to set up plays because he's creative and knows how to find his teammates. Along with (Adam) Larsson, he's been one of Sweden's best players in the international tournaments."
3. Oscar Klefbom, D Skåre (Sweden) -- Superb offensive defenseman has the size, skating and puck moving skills to be a player, but unlike Larsson, has some real deficiencies in his defensive game. At 6-3, 195 possesses the kind of frame that will make him highly appealing to NHL teams. Has soft hands and can ignite the rush either with a crisp breakout pass or take it himself up the ice with a long, loping stride. Creative and slick-- makes plays with his head up and shows advanced skill and poise with the puck. Physical game is substandard; not strong on the biscuit and doesn't show much propensity to initiate contact or fight for pucks along the walls. At his best in open ice and on the point where he can use his mobility and instincts to create scoring chances. Defensive zone coverage needs a lot of work, but as far as offensive puck movers go, Klefbom is one of the best in class and proved it with his goal and eight points in five games at the Ivan Hlinka.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad Jr. (Sweden)-- Not quite the offensive presence Klefbom is, Brodin is probably a better all-around defender and certainly has the kind of upside scouts covet. He's a smart, instinctive player who may not jump out at you the way Larsson and Klefbom (in the neutral and offensive zones) do, but he keeps things pretty simple and keeps his head up, looking to make the play. He doesn't have the kind of numbers that scream two-way defenseman, but he can pass the puck and is a fluid and mobile skater. He's a safer pick than Klefbom is, but may in time become the more dependable NHL player if he makes it.
5. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (Finland)-- This big kid (6-3, 190) has all of the tools you look for and could shoot up the draft charts because he also seems to have the competitiveness and drive that other skilled Finnish forwards have lacked in other drafts (helloooo Mikko Lehtonen). Armia's first step is only average, but he's pretty fast once he gets going. He's not all that agile and elusive, and will need to work on adding strength to his lower body and better balance overall. He can handle the puck well and has a hard shot. He goes into the greasy areas of the ice and hard to the net. He had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Finland and has been a productive junior player in Ässät's system. Watch this guy-- he could end up being a very good one.
6. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (Sweden)-- Another Swedish player in the top-10? Say it isn't so, but Nermark had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney, scoring five goals and 12 points for the bronze medal-winning squad. He's an all-around offensive scoring forward who doesn't possess blazing speed, but just seems to be wherever the puck is on every shift. He works hard and gives an honest effort in all zones. Crafty, creative and opportunistic, Red Line Report rated him as the top Swede in Slovakia (and with 12 points in five games is that really a surprise?), but he'll have to prove he can produce over the course of the entire season. Still, aside from the average size (6-0, 180) there isn't a lot not to like about this gamer.
7. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (Russia)-- If potential were all that counted, this power forward would be near the top of every draft list. He's big, can skate pretty well and has the soft hands and wicked shot to be a force on each shift. Unfortunately, he lacks competitive drive and tends to be invisible when the games matter most. Still, he cracks the top-10 because he's one of those players who, if the light ever comes on for, look out. At 6-3, 190, he's going to get bigger and stronger. When the puck is on his stick, he's someone to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, it's that other nagging aspect of having to play effectively when you don't have the puck that's Shalunov's biggest hurdle to cracking the top-60 in Minnesota.
8. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (Sweden)-- Admittedly, this is a B2011DW favorite because of what he did at last year's Under-17 championship (six goals, 17 points in nine games), but his Ivan Hlinka performance didn't warrant where I wanted to put him, so he's down the list. He's got nice size and skates pretty well (though his first step and turning ability need work), and can set up the play or finish it off. He's very good in distribution of the puck especially with the man advantage, and likes being the go-to guy on offense for his team. He's cocky but in a good way-- supremely confident in his talents and loves the game. It's really saying something that a player of Zibanejad's natural abilities is only the sixth player on this particular list of late '92/'93-born prospects from the same country. Was there some kind of super serum in the Swedish water supply during that timeframe?
9. Peter Cerešnák, D Dukla Trencin (Slovakia)-- Stay-at-home shutdown defenseman has nice size and potential, although isn't a headline-grabber. Skating is OK- straight line mobility is fine and he's actually better laterally and able to turn pretty well. Plays like a freight train, lining up players along the boards for big hits and if he can time it right, nailing guys in the open ice. Gets to running around, though-- has a lot to learn about positioning and keeping things simple. He's raw, but an interesting project much like Martin Marincin was last year. He doesn't have Marincin's size or mobility, but is nastier and plays bigger than his size (6-2, 200).
10. Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (Sweden)-- A little bit of a contrast to his higher-profile countrymen who are more offensively inclined at this stage of their development. Bengtsson is more of a defensive defenseman who isn't as fluid a skater and plays more of a conservative stay-at-home style. The 6-2, 190-pounder has a big shot, but takes a long time to unload it and needs work on improving the accuracy of his drive. Played with Klefbom at the Ivan Hlinka and was the yin to his offensive, riverboat gambler partner's style. Bengtsson looks like a solid third-round option at this point, but is someone to watch nonetheless.
Others of note--
Viktor Arvidsson, RW Skellefteå AIK Jr. (Sweden)-- Small (5-8, 150) but highly skilled shooter needs a lot of mustard to cover this hotdog, but boy can ever he can put the puck in the net! Very good speed and a wicked shot that he can wire anywhere from inside the hashmarks. Scored five goals for the Swedes in Slovakia. One of those pesky little twerps who never stops moving and skating (and that is meant as a compliment, btw), and digging for loose change and scoring chances. The size is going to scare teams off, but the scoring chops are definitely legit and if he can add a little mass to his frame, might get a longer look from someone not afraid to invest a pick in a tiny, but talented winger.
Markus Granlund, LW HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- Mikael's little bro doesn't have the top Minnesota prospect's pure hockey sense and talent, but will be a player to watch because he's still got skill and is a better skater. Granlund was one of Finland's better forwards at the Ivan Hlinka, but it was not enough. Showed good chemistry with Mikael at the Under-18s last spring, and you could see a reunion of the two brothers on a line for Tesm Finland in Buffalo this winter at the World Jr. Championships.
Richard Ullberg, G HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- The latest offering from the Finnish goalie factory, Ullberg is a Tuukka Rask clone-- tall (6-3), lanky (175) and a real butterfly/technician who doesn't give up very much of the net to shoot at. When he's hot, he's very good. When he's not...ehh-- not so much. Must work to improve consistency this season and not give up soft goals. Has the physical attributes to be a very good NHL goalie, but must address the mental aspect in order to be a top draft pick and prospect going forward.
Konstantin Komarek, RW Luleå Jr. (Austria)-- Vienna-born Austrian of Eastern European parentage is playing in Sweden this season-- did you follow that? Smallish (5-10, 180) little pepperpot can skate and score and should get some nice development in Sweden as opposed to Austria, where hockey isn't played at a very high level. Like Arvidsson, he can put the puck in the net, but the lack of size will be something that probably holds him back come draft time.
Lukáš Králík, C Olomouc (Czech Republic)-- Has a nice frame (6-1) but needs to fill out and get a lot stronger. A pretty good skater who has an efficient stride and should increase his speed and power with more physical maturity and weight room work. Has a quick release and can find the back of the net with an accurate wrister. Sees the ice well and plays with good offensive instincts.
Michal Švihálek, RW Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Kid can really score, but according to reports that's all he does. Has good, not great hockey sense and a nose for the net, but doesn't carry the kind of intensity you want in a player from shift to shift. Scores big goals, but his skill level doesn't carry the same kind of weight-- is he one of those intangibles guys who will find a way to score at the next level, or are we seeing the best from him now? That's the kind of question that is sure to spark some interesting debates in NHL war rooms.
Lukas Sedlak, C Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Good, solid defensive forward plays a North American-style game and doesn't score like Svihalek, but is a far better all-around forward. Thinks the game well and competes hard and finishes his checks. Has a soft touch on the puck and is good on faceoffs. Isn't a draft name, but could make some NHL team very happy in time-- has the attitude to be the kind of player who is more than the sum of his parts.
More Europeans to watch--
Victor Berglind, D Brynäs (Sweden)
Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Metallurg Novokuznetsk (Russia- KHL)
Daniel Mannberg, F Luleå (Sweden)
Johan Sundström, F Frölunda (Sweden)
Andrei Sigarev, F Lada Togliatti (Russia)
Dean Kukan, D GKC Lions (Switzerland)
Jesper Kokkonen, F Ilves Tampere (Finland)
For the most part, the Bruins have stayed away from Europe since 2006 when they drafted defenseman Yuri Alexandrov in the second round.
In the four drafts since, the B's have nabbed a grand total of three Europeans (Denis Reul- Germany, Radim Ostrcil- Czech Republic in '07 and Maxim Chudinov- Russia in '10), and none of them have come in the first half of the lottery.
Like 2009, the 2011 draft class appears to be very strong in terms of the Swedish contingent. I've already profiled Adam Larsson just a few posts below, and he's so good that we'll be talking about him all season, but the Tri Kronor also have some highly skilled prospects in the form of Victor Rask (he's a Swede and therefore no relation to Boston goalie Tuukka), Oscar Klefbom, Jonas Brodin, Joachim Nermark and Mika Zibanejad to name a few (and Gabriel Landeskog, who skates for the OHL's Kitchener Rangers, isn't even included in this high-end group!). Neighboring Finland boasts a skilled forward with size in Joel Armia, while Denmark has a top-10 candidate in Nicklas Jensen, a power winger and an Oshawa General for the upcoming season. Russia boasts a few intriguing players, but as has been the trend, because of the lack of a transfer agreement and signability issues, those who stay home to play hockey this season will fall further in the draft than their talent would dictate. Zakhar Arzamastsev and Maxim Shalunov fall into this category, while goalie Andrei Makarov, who will backstop the Lewiston Maine-iacs this season does not. Not to be forgotten is the Eastern European contingent from Slovakia and the Czech Republic, the best of whom may be Petr Placek, who will skate for the Hotchkiss School of all places this season. More on him later, as I neglected to mention him in my New England prep watch list and preview. Other players to keep an eye on from those countries: Czech netminder Jaroslav Pavelka, Slovak defender Peter Cerešnák, forwards Michal Svihalek and Lukas Sedlak.
Interestingly enough, some of the best European players available in 2011 are playing in North America this season: Czech defenseman David Musil (Vancouver- WHL), Landeskog, Jensen, German forward Tobias Rieder (Kitchener- OHL), Russian centers Vladislav Namestnikov (London- OHL) and Alex Khokhlachev (Windsor- OHL), Slovak winger Tomas Jurco (Saint John- QMJHL), Russian defenseman Andrei Pedan (Guelph- OHL), Czech forward Petr Beranek (Barrie- OHL), Slovak winger Marek Tvrdon (Vancouver- WHL) Czech goalie David Honzik (Victoriaville- QMJHL)Placek, Makarov and Swedish forward (another one?) Rickard Rakell (Plymouth- OHL) are all across the Atlantic and access to them will be much more available. If they get the job done, it will undoubtedly boost their draft stock come June.
So, without further ado-- here is the Euro watch list. Swede-heavy it is, but they're the ones with the dominant presence on the preseason draft lists. Where it will all shake out come June is anyone's guess, but with Larsson leading the way, don't bet against them.
1. Adam Larsson, D Skellefteå AIK (Sweden)-- The total package has a good chance of becoming the first Swede to go 1st overall in the draft since Mats Sundin because two-way defenders with size and skill are so coveted. For more of the nuts and bolts on Larsson's skill level, see my previous post on him, but can't wait to see him live in Buffalo this winter at the WJC. Most eyes will be on him after he put up a very impressive performance on Team Sweden a year ago at age 17. "He's far and away the best player coming out of Europe this season, period and exclamation point," said one NHL scout who covers Europe for a western conference team via email. "He has the size, mobility, offensive game and is pretty polished defensively. The big question is- can he keep progressing after having such a good 09-10 season? If he does, then I think you'll see him make a real claim on the top pick in the draft."
2. Victor Rask, C Leskand (Sweden)-- Superb passer and playmaker has the size, skating and creativity to be a points machine in the NHL someday. Plays with some jam and goes hard to the net; more of a setup man than a finisher, but has a hard, heavy shot and isn't afraid to let it rip. Excellent stickhandler who can take the puck into traffic and come out with it. Thinks the offensive side of the game real well and has that instinctiveness you want in a top-six centerman. Didn't have a great Ivan Hlinka tourney according to some accounts, yet still put up six assists in five games...that gives you an idea of what his potential is. Could put up big points with the Leksand allsvenskan team this year; he played eight scoreless games for them last season at 16, and probably doesn't have much else to prove at the junior level. "I like Rask a lot," the NHL scout said. "He's got very quick hands and the ability to set up plays because he's creative and knows how to find his teammates. Along with (Adam) Larsson, he's been one of Sweden's best players in the international tournaments."
3. Oscar Klefbom, D Skåre (Sweden) -- Superb offensive defenseman has the size, skating and puck moving skills to be a player, but unlike Larsson, has some real deficiencies in his defensive game. At 6-3, 195 possesses the kind of frame that will make him highly appealing to NHL teams. Has soft hands and can ignite the rush either with a crisp breakout pass or take it himself up the ice with a long, loping stride. Creative and slick-- makes plays with his head up and shows advanced skill and poise with the puck. Physical game is substandard; not strong on the biscuit and doesn't show much propensity to initiate contact or fight for pucks along the walls. At his best in open ice and on the point where he can use his mobility and instincts to create scoring chances. Defensive zone coverage needs a lot of work, but as far as offensive puck movers go, Klefbom is one of the best in class and proved it with his goal and eight points in five games at the Ivan Hlinka.
4. Jonas Brodin, D Färjestad Jr. (Sweden)-- Not quite the offensive presence Klefbom is, Brodin is probably a better all-around defender and certainly has the kind of upside scouts covet. He's a smart, instinctive player who may not jump out at you the way Larsson and Klefbom (in the neutral and offensive zones) do, but he keeps things pretty simple and keeps his head up, looking to make the play. He doesn't have the kind of numbers that scream two-way defenseman, but he can pass the puck and is a fluid and mobile skater. He's a safer pick than Klefbom is, but may in time become the more dependable NHL player if he makes it.
5. Joel Armia, RW Ässät Pori (Finland)-- This big kid (6-3, 190) has all of the tools you look for and could shoot up the draft charts because he also seems to have the competitiveness and drive that other skilled Finnish forwards have lacked in other drafts (helloooo Mikko Lehtonen). Armia's first step is only average, but he's pretty fast once he gets going. He's not all that agile and elusive, and will need to work on adding strength to his lower body and better balance overall. He can handle the puck well and has a hard shot. He goes into the greasy areas of the ice and hard to the net. He had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney for Team Finland and has been a productive junior player in Ässät's system. Watch this guy-- he could end up being a very good one.
6. Joachim Nermark, C Linköping (Sweden)-- Another Swedish player in the top-10? Say it isn't so, but Nermark had a strong Ivan Hlinka tourney, scoring five goals and 12 points for the bronze medal-winning squad. He's an all-around offensive scoring forward who doesn't possess blazing speed, but just seems to be wherever the puck is on every shift. He works hard and gives an honest effort in all zones. Crafty, creative and opportunistic, Red Line Report rated him as the top Swede in Slovakia (and with 12 points in five games is that really a surprise?), but he'll have to prove he can produce over the course of the entire season. Still, aside from the average size (6-0, 180) there isn't a lot not to like about this gamer.
7. Maxim Shalunov, RW Chelyabinsk (Russia)-- If potential were all that counted, this power forward would be near the top of every draft list. He's big, can skate pretty well and has the soft hands and wicked shot to be a force on each shift. Unfortunately, he lacks competitive drive and tends to be invisible when the games matter most. Still, he cracks the top-10 because he's one of those players who, if the light ever comes on for, look out. At 6-3, 190, he's going to get bigger and stronger. When the puck is on his stick, he's someone to be reckoned with. Unfortunately, it's that other nagging aspect of having to play effectively when you don't have the puck that's Shalunov's biggest hurdle to cracking the top-60 in Minnesota.
8. Mika Zibanejad, C/LW Djurgården (Sweden)-- Admittedly, this is a B2011DW favorite because of what he did at last year's Under-17 championship (six goals, 17 points in nine games), but his Ivan Hlinka performance didn't warrant where I wanted to put him, so he's down the list. He's got nice size and skates pretty well (though his first step and turning ability need work), and can set up the play or finish it off. He's very good in distribution of the puck especially with the man advantage, and likes being the go-to guy on offense for his team. He's cocky but in a good way-- supremely confident in his talents and loves the game. It's really saying something that a player of Zibanejad's natural abilities is only the sixth player on this particular list of late '92/'93-born prospects from the same country. Was there some kind of super serum in the Swedish water supply during that timeframe?
9. Peter Cerešnák, D Dukla Trencin (Slovakia)-- Stay-at-home shutdown defenseman has nice size and potential, although isn't a headline-grabber. Skating is OK- straight line mobility is fine and he's actually better laterally and able to turn pretty well. Plays like a freight train, lining up players along the boards for big hits and if he can time it right, nailing guys in the open ice. Gets to running around, though-- has a lot to learn about positioning and keeping things simple. He's raw, but an interesting project much like Martin Marincin was last year. He doesn't have Marincin's size or mobility, but is nastier and plays bigger than his size (6-2, 200).
10. Rasmus Bengtsson, D Rögle (Sweden)-- A little bit of a contrast to his higher-profile countrymen who are more offensively inclined at this stage of their development. Bengtsson is more of a defensive defenseman who isn't as fluid a skater and plays more of a conservative stay-at-home style. The 6-2, 190-pounder has a big shot, but takes a long time to unload it and needs work on improving the accuracy of his drive. Played with Klefbom at the Ivan Hlinka and was the yin to his offensive, riverboat gambler partner's style. Bengtsson looks like a solid third-round option at this point, but is someone to watch nonetheless.
Others of note--
Viktor Arvidsson, RW Skellefteå AIK Jr. (Sweden)-- Small (5-8, 150) but highly skilled shooter needs a lot of mustard to cover this hotdog, but boy can ever he can put the puck in the net! Very good speed and a wicked shot that he can wire anywhere from inside the hashmarks. Scored five goals for the Swedes in Slovakia. One of those pesky little twerps who never stops moving and skating (and that is meant as a compliment, btw), and digging for loose change and scoring chances. The size is going to scare teams off, but the scoring chops are definitely legit and if he can add a little mass to his frame, might get a longer look from someone not afraid to invest a pick in a tiny, but talented winger.
Markus Granlund, LW HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- Mikael's little bro doesn't have the top Minnesota prospect's pure hockey sense and talent, but will be a player to watch because he's still got skill and is a better skater. Granlund was one of Finland's better forwards at the Ivan Hlinka, but it was not enough. Showed good chemistry with Mikael at the Under-18s last spring, and you could see a reunion of the two brothers on a line for Tesm Finland in Buffalo this winter at the World Jr. Championships.
Richard Ullberg, G HIFK Helsinki (Finland)-- The latest offering from the Finnish goalie factory, Ullberg is a Tuukka Rask clone-- tall (6-3), lanky (175) and a real butterfly/technician who doesn't give up very much of the net to shoot at. When he's hot, he's very good. When he's not...ehh-- not so much. Must work to improve consistency this season and not give up soft goals. Has the physical attributes to be a very good NHL goalie, but must address the mental aspect in order to be a top draft pick and prospect going forward.
Konstantin Komarek, RW Luleå Jr. (Austria)-- Vienna-born Austrian of Eastern European parentage is playing in Sweden this season-- did you follow that? Smallish (5-10, 180) little pepperpot can skate and score and should get some nice development in Sweden as opposed to Austria, where hockey isn't played at a very high level. Like Arvidsson, he can put the puck in the net, but the lack of size will be something that probably holds him back come draft time.
Lukáš Králík, C Olomouc (Czech Republic)-- Has a nice frame (6-1) but needs to fill out and get a lot stronger. A pretty good skater who has an efficient stride and should increase his speed and power with more physical maturity and weight room work. Has a quick release and can find the back of the net with an accurate wrister. Sees the ice well and plays with good offensive instincts.
Michal Švihálek, RW Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Kid can really score, but according to reports that's all he does. Has good, not great hockey sense and a nose for the net, but doesn't carry the kind of intensity you want in a player from shift to shift. Scores big goals, but his skill level doesn't carry the same kind of weight-- is he one of those intangibles guys who will find a way to score at the next level, or are we seeing the best from him now? That's the kind of question that is sure to spark some interesting debates in NHL war rooms.
Lukas Sedlak, C Budejovice (Czech Republic)-- Good, solid defensive forward plays a North American-style game and doesn't score like Svihalek, but is a far better all-around forward. Thinks the game well and competes hard and finishes his checks. Has a soft touch on the puck and is good on faceoffs. Isn't a draft name, but could make some NHL team very happy in time-- has the attitude to be the kind of player who is more than the sum of his parts.
More Europeans to watch--
Victor Berglind, D Brynäs (Sweden)
Zakhar Arzamastsev, D Metallurg Novokuznetsk (Russia- KHL)
Daniel Mannberg, F Luleå (Sweden)
Johan Sundström, F Frölunda (Sweden)
Andrei Sigarev, F Lada Togliatti (Russia)
Dean Kukan, D GKC Lions (Switzerland)
Jesper Kokkonen, F Ilves Tampere (Finland)
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